After a second consecutive season where they’ll miss the playoffs, the Cardinals organization appears to be in flux. With a presser scheduled for early in this coming week, rumors have swirled that the club is set to make some notable organizational changes to kick off their offseason. Those changes figure to be headlined by former Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom stepping into a larger role with the club’s baseball operations department, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports this morning that this offseason’s changes could carry over to the big league roster as well. Per Nightengale, the Cardinals are willing to listen to offers on veteran right-hander Sonny Gray just one year after signing him to a hefty three-year, $75MM deal as the team hopes to cut payroll entering next year.
The notion of St. Louis looking to trim down its payroll isn’t exactly a shocking one. Cardinals attendance dropped below 3 million this year for the first time since 2003 (ignoring the pandemic-impacted seasons of 2020 and 2021), leaving the club with less gate revenue than expected. Meanwhile, the TV revenue side of things isn’t much rosier as the Cardinals are one of the teams impacted by the ongoing Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy. While MLB and the Players’ Association agreed back in July to redirect funds towards clubs that have lost TV revenue amid Diamond’s troubles, it would hardly be a surprise if the club’s budgets going forward were impacted by this revenue uncertainty.
Even if the overall baseball operations budget isn’t reduced, it’s still possible to imagine the club’s player payroll dropping heading into 2025. After all, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported on the state of the Cardinals organization earlier this week and described a situation where the club has begun to prioritize major league payroll over investing in the organization’s development infrastructure, resulting in cuts to key areas of player development in order to sustain an ever-growing payroll at the big league level. With changes to the front office seemingly on the horizon, it’s certainly plausible that the club could pare back its payroll in order to invest in a more robust player development apparatus.
That possibility of a lower big league payroll next year leads back to Gray, who will see his back-loaded salary rise from $10MM this year to $25MM in 2025. While RosterResource at Fangraphs suggests St. Louis has just $108MM in guaranteed commitments for next year, that doesn’t include an increasingly expensive arbitration class including key players like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Ryan Helsley. Nor does it include the possibility of the club deciding to exercise its club option on one or both of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, each of which are $12MM options with $1MM buyouts. With Gray’s $15MM raise this year and those possible additions to the payroll, it’s easy to see why the Cardinals may need to trade salary away in order to address the roster’s needs this winter even after shedding Paul Goldschmidt’s $26MM salary when he reaches free agency in November.
With that being said, losing Gray would be a major blow to St. Louis’s hopes of contending next year. The veteran right-hander had something of a down season in his first year with the Cardinals, posting a 3.84 ERA that’s just 9% better than league average by ERA+. Even so, Gray’s 3.12 FIP was nothing short of excellent and he remains just one year removed from a dominant season with the Twins that saw him finish second in AL Cy Young award voting behind Gerrit Cole. The 34-year-old hurler would likely be an improvement to just about any club’s rotation next year, but it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals themselves finding an adequate replacement for the right-hander internally coming off a season where the club’s starters collective posted a 4.36 ERA that ranks 21st in the majors and a 4.08 FIP that ranks 15th even with Gray in the fold.
What’s more, the hefty salary that could lead the Cardinals to consider dealing Gray could prove to be an anchor that makes him surprisingly difficult to trade. Between his salary for the next two years and a $5MM buyout on his option for 2027, Gray is owed $65MM over the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum for any club to take on, and it could be especially problematic for clubs at or near the luxury tax. Upon being traded, contracts are recalculated for luxury tax purposes based on the remaining dollars and years on the deal, meaning that an acquiring team would be accepting a hit of nearly $32.5MM to their luxury tax ledger over the next two years by trading for Gray. Even if the Cardinals can find a trade partner willing to stomach that cost, Gray’s full no-trade clause could further complicate things by allowing him to block any deal if so chooses.
That’s not to say a deal would be completely impossible, of course. Plenty of players with no-trade clauses and even larger contracts than Gray have been dealt over the years, and if the Cardinals are sufficiently motivated to get a deal done there will surely be suitors for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber. Nightengale suggests that the Reds, for whom Gray pitched from 2019-21 and made his second career trip to the All-Star game, could have interest in a reunion if the veteran is made available this winter.
The Reds have had a disappointing season in 2024 but nonetheless sport an exciting young core of talent led by right-hander Hunter Greene and shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Adding Gray as an experienced, front-of-the-rotation veteran would be a huge boost for a Cincinnati rotation that appears likely to lose Nick Martinez to free agency this year but still has a number of interesting young arms behind Greene such as Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Graham Ashcraft. Any of those young arms would surely be attractive to St. Louis as a potential return for Gray’s services given their own rotation needs, though it seems likely that the Cardinals would need to retain some money in order to facilitate such a deal given the Reds’ typically low payrolls and Gray’s large contract.
gojira15
This…doesn’t seem likely. Especially the idea that Gray is traded back to Cincinnati.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Agree. They keep Gray and simply choose not to retain Gibson and Lynn. That solves the money.
And stop the nonsense about the trade with the Reds. The Reds are not going to spend that much and the Reds already have Burns, Greene and Lowder to front their rotation.
avenger65
MLB: If they trade Gray, who are they going to go with? Keep Lynn, whose knee problems are likely to do with the fact he can’t see his knees unless he’s standing in front of a mirror? Pay Gibson $12M? Hard to believe this franchise has fallen even this far.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
I would love the reds getting gray back but huge intra division trades don’t happen for a reason
But… I still think they trade gray to the Mets or rangers and either pay none of the contract or pay some of it for better prospects
NYMETSHEA
Easy to put Mets on list but they won’t be going after Gray.
JohnnyMute
My Reds are also in on Bauer.
Bauer
Greene
Gray
Lodolo
Abbott
Wins the NL
CardsFan6969
No one’s in on Bauer. They could’ve had him at any time. It’s not like teams were waiting to see how he pitched in Mexico.
I’ll be shocked if Bauer ever comes back.
Unclemike1525
Yeah. When I think of teams that would take on a P at 32.5 million a year for 2 years the Reds were the first team that popped into my head. I bet Castellini just wet himself READING that.
gbs42
Johnny, no one wants Bauer, and he sure as hell wouldn’t front the Reds rotation.
bledrules
Burns hasn’t thrown a pitch in pro baseball,he won’t be in the majors
stymeedone
What do you mean “some money”? You are talking about the Reds here.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Yeah if the reds wanted gray back they would’ve just signed him last year
But that would be too expensive
StlSwifty
The cards are in need of a big change. And the fans are ready for it. They should trade gray, Contreras, and Helsley (I dont want to, but now is the time to cash in on him). Goldy is likely gone. They should cash in what value they have and stock the farm. Start looking towards a younger core of Walker, Winn, wetherholt, burleson, and hence and bring in some better developmental coaches to get the most out of them.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
I love this cardinals momentum my pipe dream of them firing moz and marmol and hiring skip Schumacher seems increasingly more likely
rememberthecoop
Every team should be open to at least listening to offers on every player. It doesn’t cost anything to listen, and you might end up making another deal.
Blackpink in the area
Let’s stop alowing the Cubs fan to write articles about the Cardinals.
This seems like total nonsense. Plenty of ways to cut costs without trading Gray. He’s also owed a ton of money and has a NTC. And trade him within the division? Uh no.
Goldschmidt, Gibson and Lynn. That’s a ton of money coming off the books. Doesn’t require a trade it’s very simple to not bring any of them back if the team wants to cut costs.
SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs
It’s Nightengale he just says random stuff for clicks
avenger65
Blackpink: If I remember correctly, I believe Nightingale used to write for the Chicago Sun-Times, and the media in Chicago falls all over themselves to see who lives the cubs the most.
Unclemike1525
1. Why would a Cub fan give a crap about what the Cardinals do?
2. That’s big talk for a guy who doesn’t even have spell check and can’t spell allowing.
3. I’m sure the cheaper the cardinals go the more the Cubs would hate it.
4. Nobody really cares what the Cardinals are doing because it’s mystifying at best.
JohnnyMute
Let’s stop allowing you to say anything.Black and pink doofus . You’re a Mets fan. Move back to your Blue Barron account and stop harassing others
jdgoat
Gray for Springer. St Louis save about 800k per year. That has to be enough cost cutting!
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
lol that would be the biggest lose-lose trade ever
ElGaupo77
Signing a backloaded contract to an older player isn’t the brightest move
DashaToushu
@ElG
“Signing a backloaded contract to an older player isn’t the brightest move”
It doesn’t REALLY make that much difference.
The biggest difference is that it makes them a bit harder to trade. As this example illustrates.
Other than that, though, contracts are structured for all kinds of reasons: present value being the biggest – players might be looking to a specific total dollar amount for whatever reason. Cash flow reasons for the team being another.
DashaToushu
“The veteran right-hander had something of a down season in his first year with the Cardinals, posting a 3.84 ERA that’s just 9% better than league average by ERA+. Even so, Gray’s 3.12 FIP was nothing short of excellent”
So, another excellent season. Probably a better season than in 2023
’23: 7.3 BB%, 24.3 K%
’24: 5.8 BB%, 30.3 K%
gr8one99
Mozeliak is an embarrassment. The DeWitts have allowed him to fly his little “I won the World Series in 2011” flag for the last 13 years with zero accountability and now they are paying the consequences. He should have been shown the door years ago.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
I’ve heard this article talk a lot about goldy and the arbitration players, but where’s the talk on arenado? He (probably) has their highest salary so shouldn’t they find a way to get rid of him?
gr8one99
Mozeliak sold Arenado a bad bill of goods. If you want to cut some massive salary, start with him and see if the Dodgers are interested. I’m sure Nolan would love to go home and play for an actual contender.
DashaToushu
@gr8
“see if the Dodgers are interested”
Muncy outplayed Arrenado significantly this season. Every team should always be interested in every player at the right price, but I can’t imagine the Dodgers are willing to pay much for Arenado
They could use a right-handed bat in the lineup. But Arenado has been very average for 1250 PA’s.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Why would the dodgers lose a lefty above average bat to get a righty average bat with declining defense thats older and a lot more expensive?
Muncy has more value then arenado and even if they made that trade for some reason why would the cards want muncy
eatonculo
Gray will want to stay close to his Nashville home. The Cardinals will try to take the best offer, but the Braves probably have them over a barrel. I’m sure they’d rather trade him to Atlanta over division-rival Cincinnati.
Joemo
Seems like a perfect trade for the Red Sox.
Trade a prospect or two (yes you’d have to tap into young MLB talent and probably a prospect in the top 5-10 range) and get an ace on an affordable short term deal.
It makes too much sense.
letitbelowenstein
Couldn’t hurt Arizona to have him. Or maybe try and peddle him off to Oaksacvegas and eat some of his salary.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
I think Arizona wants to run it back with that rotation, if they are all healthy and ready they could have the best rotation in baseball
cgallant
I’ll give ya Masa Yoshida straight up.
DonOsbourne
Trading Gray is the right thing to do for the team and the player. Even if Mo can’t bring himself say it, it’s rebuild time in St. Louis. They should be listening to offers on anyone over 30.
On a separate note, the “notable organizational changes” will more likely be a series of half measures designed to preserve Mo’s dignity. Fans shouldn’t get fooled by the “lack of TV revenue” excuse. Mo is %100 guilty of all the problems this team is having. Fans should stay away until he is fired.
I completely support the idea of a tear down. I just don’t want Mo to be in charge of it. Ownership deserves to feel the financial pain of an empty stadium for letting it get this bad and refusing to take decisive action.
CardsFan6969
No tanking. We’re above that. No trading Gray or Helsley. Let Gibson and Lynn go. Sign Sean Manaea. Let Goldy go. Have Baker and Burleson man 1B.
Rotation should be Gray, Fedde, Pallante, McGreevy, and Matz/Mikolas.
DonOsbourne
I wouldn’t consider it tanking. We already have a young core in place. But we need a financial reset. Clear the books so that a new management team has maximum resources in ’26. There is no point in staying in this twilight zone of mediocrity.
ohyeadam
He’s a really good pitcher but you’re not getting anything back at 2/65
DonOsbourne
I don’t think they would expect much in return. If they trade him, it’s a pure salary dump.
Man What Runs With the Football
Gray could have signed with Cincinnati, but chose to go to St. Louis. Why would he turn around and waive his no trade clause to go there?
Unless the Cardinals eat at least half of that salary it’s a no go anyway. The Reds aren’t going to trade youngsters for Gray unless it’s a shortstop or three. I was hoping last off season the Reds could get either Gray or Miley, and they ended up with Montas, who actually has said he wants to come back to Cincinnati after being sent to Milwaukee. I can see somebody wanting to get the **** out of Milwaukee after being there more than 10 minutes, so maybe he does come back to Cincinnati.
Cleon Jones
Dumping Gray but retain Gibson and Lynn? Makes zero sense. One year into that contract? Cant see it happening. At the same time, they have alternatives to cutting payroll, but that strategy doesnt seem to work out well. Sad really, the Cardinals franchise among others sinks to this level because MLB is so friggin incompetent promoting its product in bas8c ways.