Right-hander Nick Martinez is putting the finishing touches on a terrific first season with the Reds, having thus far compiled 134 1/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with a 20.8% strikeout rate and superlative 3.3% walk rate. He’s signed through the 2025 season and slated to earn $12MM next season but has the right to opt out of the second season of his two-year, $26MM contract and test free agency for what would be a fourth straight offseason.
The 34-year-old righty recently told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that he hasn’t made a decision or spoken with agent Scott Boras about his contract status while simultaneously expressing love for the Reds’ clubhouse and speaking fondly of his time in the organization. Martinez plainly stated that in spite of the opt-out opportunity, his mindset upon signing was that he was going to be in Cincinnati for multiple years. He’s bounced between starting and a variety of bullpen roles and said he’s on board with how he’s been used. He alluded to a “more delicate issue” that needs to be talked about in the offseason — a seeming nod to that looming opt-out provision and the clear reality that he’d be able to easily top the remaining one year and $12MM on his contract if he returned to the open market.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a lengthy look at Martinez’s opt-out and his ostensible comfort with going year-to-year in free agency as he continually improves his earning power. The 2011 Rangers draftee struggled through four big league seasons (2014-17) before reinventing himself in a breakout run with Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters and SoftBank Hawks. Since returning to North American Ball, he’s pitched three seasons between San Diego and Cincinnati, logging a collective 3.36 ERA in 351 innings. Martinez has filled virtually every role possible, working as a starter, closer, setup man, long reliever and bulk reliever behind openers.
A two- or even three-year deal should be available to Martinez this offseason, although the Reds will have some time to ponder a potential multi-year deal to keep the versatile righty from reaching free agency at all. Martinez opined that the Reds have the pieces in place to ascend to playoff contention next year and spoke glowingly about his teammates. He’s a valuable piece of the puzzle as things stand, capable of serving as a fourth or fifth starter behind Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott (all three of whom he specifically mentioned in expressing his optimism about the team’s future) or again operating as a pivotal swingman who can be called upon in any role.
Those three young arms are effectively locked into the top spots in the Cincinnati rotation. Top prospect Rhett Lowder, 26-year-old Graham Ashcraft and 23-year-old Julian Aguiar are among the other candidates for starting roles next season. The Reds could arguably use a veteran arm to help stabilize the rotation outlook, but not every viable starting option would be so amenable to being shuffled between the starting staff and bullpen as Martinez has been in recent years. It does make him a clear fit, even if his numbers are notably better in relief. The question for the Reds will be one of salary, as Martinez has pitched well enough to justifiably seek a raise over the two-year, $26MM terms to which he agreed last winter.
Cincinnati has about $27MM in guarantees on next year’s books, per RosterResource. That doesn’t include Martinez’s option, an $8MM Emilio Pagan player option or a $3.5MM club option on lefty Brent Suter that seems likely to be picked up by the team. The Reds will also have to weigh arbitration raises for Ty France ($6.775MM salary in ’24), Santiago Espinal ($2.725MM), Tyler Stephenson ($2.525MM) and Jake Fraley ($2.15MM), plus first-time arb-eligible players like Lodolo, Ashcraft, Alexis Diaz and Sam Moll.
The Suter option, arbitration raises and a slate of league-minimum players to round out the roster would put the Reds north of $60MM before even considering Martinez or any offseason expenditures. Cincinnati has opened the past two seasons with payrolls ranging from $82-100MM. Martinez could be deemed something of a luxury if ownership wants to keep payroll in that same range, though it’s not yet clear what type of payroll the club is comfortable fielding in 2025. The Reds will also be in the market for at least one veteran bat to upgrade the lineup. Adding to a bullpen could see as many as four relievers reach free agency — Martinez, Pagan, Buck Farmer, Justin Wilson — will also surely be a goal.
Could argue Lowder is number 1. Could argue Chase Burns has highest upside. Those two plus Greene are ahead of Abbott and Lodolo. Would keep France and Martinez at current rates.
I’d retain France and Martinez too, I’d also seriously explore Espinal/Rosario as well.
Marte and Strand haven’t looked that great.
Rosario, no, but they should hang onto the other three.
Which means they’ll sign none and go with AAAA retreads as usual.
Likely
Realistically, Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Lowder and Martinez is a nice rotation, given health. Problem is, the first three have always had injuries so far each of their seasons. Aguiar looks like a keeper but may need some more time in AAA. Anyone else probably too far away or too ineffective to help much, at least early next season.
So some decisions need to be made. I think they made one on Ashcraft already, looks like he is headed to the pen in the future and I get the feeling Lodolo is headed the same way.
The good news is more starting pitching is coming. The bullpen will be the key though and many will change over. It’s not like their are many prospects there either.
He’s had a really nice season for the Reds. This was a good signing by Krall.
One out of how many?
Not many for your Reds unfortunately. I’m curious who you’d want as manager though.
Lou Pinella but he is long retired. Same with Tito. I thought Skip Schmauker would make a good manager someday when he was still playing but I doubt they will get in a bidding war. With young players, I think they need less of a player’s manager and more of a hard nosed SOB.
I think they really need someone to come in day one and tell them “everyone needs to earn their position and that includes you, Elly” (just to prove there are no favorites). Light a fire under them. They seemed to lose that self motivation and fire they had last sesson when they played over their heads a lot of times.
Schumacher would be a great fit, he comes from the Cardinal way when that philosophy worked wonders. Perhaps he’s more amenable to joining the Reds, especially since it’s a team with so much young talent that needs guidance to get to the playoffs.
Flip the tables and go with Dibble as Manager and Sweet Lou as Bench Coach. Maybe there’s a role for Spuds too 😉
I’m still waiting for the first time ever that a player has said they refuse to re-sign with their current team.
Mookie didn’t have to say it out loud, but the fallout on TMZ would have been worth the read
Automatic opt out if he doesn’t get extended.
Yeah he had an excellent year. Great ERA and FIP plus he’s built up his innings enough to handle a full starters workload next year.
Agreed.
Really hope the Reds re-sign him.
When the cat is making better decisions than the owner…
I wouldn’t be in a huge rush to sign him.
His K rate looks similar to his couple years as does his swinging strike rate.
His BB rate is way down. That’s good.
But, so is his GB rate. Which means his FB rate is up.
His HR/FB rate is way down.
So his ERA and FIP look really good.
His xFIP and SIERRA look like the same averagey pitcher that he has been.
He’s a good pitcher whose flexibility brings added value. But he doesn’t seem to be as good as the surface stats look.
He’s right to opt out and a similar contract to his current one would seem to be in order.
Yeah-can’t prove but likely Cincy got his best remaining results at 34yo. Someone pays him a lot for 2-3yrs off that, and he’s not nearly as good in aftermath. Rinse and repeat. Guaranteed deals fight against human nature (even well intended individuals) in responding to financial motivation to perform. Both sides like the system enough to keep it.
I was thinking he sounds like a god fight for the Angels. He could be a veteran who starts some, does some long relief, and provides a steadying influence on a young pitching group.
I don’t see Arte giving him a multiyear deal.
He’d basically replace the 2 year deal Esteves just wrapped up.
Anderson, Loup, Tepera, Esteves…he’s going 2 and 3 years at times now.
3/36-40 waiting to happen. Better
Opt out and get that extra year now as opposed to waiting for next year.
His value has been at that amount since returning to states. That 3rd year may regress but what contract doesn’t?
Open to staying means he doesn’t want to eliminate any potential teams when he opts out. Boras is his agent. They’re going for the money, and at his age, he’d be foolish not to.
Please give him a 3 year contract , it’s time to spend and compete for real !
Nick Martinez always says the right things and he is able to pitch in just about any situation and always claims he will pitch in whatever role his team needs but he lost me as a fan when he quit on Team USA in the last World Baseball Classic…the manager told him he wasn’t going to start and would be used out of the bullpen so he took his ball and went home which really was a bad look for him after he claimed that there was nothing better than being able to represent his country with a big USA across the front of his jersey. Team USA could have used him big time in the Championship game against Japan but he quit. I have zero respect for him as a person and player.
@3 finger split
That’s a bit of a one-sided way to look at it.
Players participating in the WBC don’t have their normal spring training to prepare for the season.
Team USA couldn’t guarantee him another outing in the WBC, so he chose to return to the Padres.
si.com/mlb/padres/news/padres-news-nick-martinez-e…
@3 finger split
That’s a bit of a one-sided way to look at it.
Players participating in the WBC don’t have their normal spring training to prepare for the season.
Team USA couldn’t guarantee him another outing in the WBC, so he chose to return to the Padres.
*Per an SI article that I can’t link to.
Bring back Martinez. And I know he’s young and LH, but then I try to use Lodolo as part of a package to bring in a legit middle of the order bat. He’s a great talent, but he’s never been healthy since turning pro. He’s turning out to be Senzel 2.0. Try to get something for him when you can get a little value. Pitching hasn’t been the biggest hole most of the year, it’s been the offense.