Right-hander Nick Martinez is putting the finishing touches on a terrific first season with the Reds, having thus far compiled 134 1/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball with a 20.8% strikeout rate and superlative 3.3% walk rate. He’s signed through the 2025 season and slated to earn $12MM next season but has the right to opt out of the second season of his two-year, $26MM contract and test free agency for what would be a fourth straight offseason.
The 34-year-old righty recently told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that he hasn’t made a decision or spoken with agent Scott Boras about his contract status while simultaneously expressing love for the Reds’ clubhouse and speaking fondly of his time in the organization. Martinez plainly stated that in spite of the opt-out opportunity, his mindset upon signing was that he was going to be in Cincinnati for multiple years. He’s bounced between starting and a variety of bullpen roles and said he’s on board with how he’s been used. He alluded to a “more delicate issue” that needs to be talked about in the offseason — a seeming nod to that looming opt-out provision and the clear reality that he’d be able to easily top the remaining one year and $12MM on his contract if he returned to the open market.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a lengthy look at Martinez’s opt-out and his ostensible comfort with going year-to-year in free agency as he continually improves his earning power. The 2011 Rangers draftee struggled through four big league seasons (2014-17) before reinventing himself in a breakout run with Japan’s Nippon-Ham Fighters and SoftBank Hawks. Since returning to North American Ball, he’s pitched three seasons between San Diego and Cincinnati, logging a collective 3.36 ERA in 351 innings. Martinez has filled virtually every role possible, working as a starter, closer, setup man, long reliever and bulk reliever behind openers.
A two- or even three-year deal should be available to Martinez this offseason, although the Reds will have some time to ponder a potential multi-year deal to keep the versatile righty from reaching free agency at all. Martinez opined that the Reds have the pieces in place to ascend to playoff contention next year and spoke glowingly about his teammates. He’s a valuable piece of the puzzle as things stand, capable of serving as a fourth or fifth starter behind Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott (all three of whom he specifically mentioned in expressing his optimism about the team’s future) or again operating as a pivotal swingman who can be called upon in any role.
Those three young arms are effectively locked into the top spots in the Cincinnati rotation. Top prospect Rhett Lowder, 26-year-old Graham Ashcraft and 23-year-old Julian Aguiar are among the other candidates for starting roles next season. The Reds could arguably use a veteran arm to help stabilize the rotation outlook, but not every viable starting option would be so amenable to being shuffled between the starting staff and bullpen as Martinez has been in recent years. It does make him a clear fit, even if his numbers are notably better in relief. The question for the Reds will be one of salary, as Martinez has pitched well enough to justifiably seek a raise over the two-year, $26MM terms to which he agreed last winter.
Cincinnati has about $27MM in guarantees on next year’s books, per RosterResource. That doesn’t include Martinez’s option, an $8MM Emilio Pagan player option or a $3.5MM club option on lefty Brent Suter that seems likely to be picked up by the team. The Reds will also have to weigh arbitration raises for Ty France ($6.775MM salary in ’24), Santiago Espinal ($2.725MM), Tyler Stephenson ($2.525MM) and Jake Fraley ($2.15MM), plus first-time arb-eligible players like Lodolo, Ashcraft, Alexis Diaz and Sam Moll.
The Suter option, arbitration raises and a slate of league-minimum players to round out the roster would put the Reds north of $60MM before even considering Martinez or any offseason expenditures. Cincinnati has opened the past two seasons with payrolls ranging from $82-100MM. Martinez could be deemed something of a luxury if ownership wants to keep payroll in that same range, though it’s not yet clear what type of payroll the club is comfortable fielding in 2025. The Reds will also be in the market for at least one veteran bat to upgrade the lineup. Adding to a bullpen could see as many as four relievers reach free agency — Martinez, Pagan, Buck Farmer, Justin Wilson — will also surely be a goal.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Could argue Lowder is number 1. Could argue Chase Burns has highest upside. Those two plus Greene are ahead of Abbott and Lodolo. Would keep France and Martinez at current rates.
Warden of the North(acoss13)
He’s had a really nice season for the Reds. This was a good signing by Krall.
Fever Pitch Guy
I’m still waiting for the first time ever that a player has said they refuse to re-sign with their current team.
Troy Percival's iPad
Mookie didn’t have to say it out loud, but the fallout on TMZ would have been worth the read
JoeBrady
Automatic opt out if he doesn’t get extended.
Blackpink in the area
Yeah he had an excellent year. Great ERA and FIP plus he’s built up his innings enough to handle a full starters workload next year.
HalosHeavenJJ
Agreed.
Bobcastelliniscat
Really hope the Reds re-sign him.
DashaToushu
I wouldn’t be in a huge rush to sign him.
His K rate looks similar to his couple years as does his swinging strike rate.
His BB rate is way down. That’s good.
But, so is his GB rate. Which means his FB rate is up.
His HR/FB rate is way down.
So his ERA and FIP look really good.
His xFIP and SIERRA look like the same averagey pitcher that he has been.
He’s a good pitcher whose flexibility brings added value. But he doesn’t seem to be as good as the surface stats look.
He’s right to opt out and a similar contract to his current one would seem to be in order.
cwsOverhaul
Yeah-can’t prove but likely Cincy got his best remaining results at 34yo. Someone pays him a lot for 2-3yrs off that, and he’s not nearly as good in aftermath. Rinse and repeat. Guaranteed deals fight against human nature (even well intended individuals) in responding to financial motivation to perform. Both sides like the system enough to keep it.
HalosHeavenJJ
I was thinking he sounds like a god fight for the Angels. He could be a veteran who starts some, does some long relief, and provides a steadying influence on a young pitching group.
LordD99
I don’t see Arte giving him a multiyear deal.
Longtimecoming
3/36-40 waiting to happen. Better
Opt out and get that extra year now as opposed to waiting for next year.
His value has been at that amount since returning to states. That 3rd year may regress but what contract doesn’t?
LordD99
Open to staying means he doesn’t want to eliminate any potential teams when he opts out. Boras is his agent. They’re going for the money, and at his age, he’d be foolish not to.