Jacob deGrom’s 2024 debut finally appears imminent, after the two-time Cy Young Award winner completed his fourth and likely final minor league rehab outing on Saturday. DeGrom has seemingly come out of that four-inning, 49-pitch appearance in good health, and is now set to make his return to the majors at some point during the Rangers’ upcoming six-game road trip that begins Tuesday.
“If it all goes well, he’ll be pitching for us next time around,” manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry and other reporters. “It’s pretty cool because it’s been a long road as these guys go through the rehab on the Tommy John.”
DeGrom had his Tommy John surgery in June 2023, and last pitched in a big league game on April 28, 2023. After signing a five-year, $185MM free agent contract with Texas during the 2022-23 offseason, deGrom’s only contribution to the Rangers’ World Series season was six starts and 30 1/3 innings, albeit with a very impressive 2.67 ERA and his typically excellent strikeout and walk rates.
Statistics compiled during minor league rehab stints should always be taken with a grain of salt, but deGrom has looked quite sharp in posting an 0.84 ERA over 10 2/3 total innings in the minors. As Landry noted, deGrom has been so dominant that he hasn’t been able to entirely hit his assigned rehab checkpoints. In his start on Saturday, Bochy said deGrom was assigned for four innings or 60 pitches, yet deGrom breezed through Double-A opponents on just 49 pitches — the most he has thrown in any of his four rehab starts.
As the season enters its final three weeks, the Rangers’ title defense has resulted in only a 70-74 record and a longshot bid at a wild card berth. DeGrom won’t be returning to a pennant race, but there’s some obvious benefit in getting back on a big league mound and shaking off some rust in advance of a hopefully normal offseason, and then a standard ramp-up in Spring Training. At age 36 and with just 186 2/3 MLB innings pitched since Opening Day 2021, deGrom’s health history will always make him something of a question mark, yet he has continued to deliver whenever he has been able to pitch.
DeGrom could soon be joined by another veteran ace in Max Scherzer, whose minor league rehab stint got underway Saturday at Triple-A with four hitless innings of work on 53 pitches. Right shoulder fatigue and then triceps discomfort has kept Scherzer on the injured list since the start of August, but a mechanical fix seems to have corrected his triceps issue, and Scherzer looked to be in good form on Saturday.
It seems possible that Scherzer could rejoin the Rangers as early as this week’s road trip, depending on whether or not the team feels he needs any more rehab work to more fully build his pitch count. The Rangers could also activate Scherzer and then allow him to rebuild at the MLB level, either on a limited innings count or with a piggyback pitcher working behind Scherzer.
Heading into the season, Texas planned to have deGrom, Scherzer (who was then recovering from offseason back surgery), and Tyler Mahle (Tommy John surgery) all back around the middle of the year, providing the rotation with some reinforcements down the stretch. While a few setbacks delayed these pitchers on that projected timeline, the bigger problem was other injuries and a lack of hitting that torpedoed the Rangers’ season.
Ironically, this planned surplus of pitching has now come at a time when the Rangers might prefer to look at their future arms. One such hurler is top prospect Kumar Rocker, who has opened some eyes since his own return from a May 2023 Tommy John surgery. The third overall pick of the 2022 draft has an 0.46 ERA over 19 2/3 innings in Double-A ball this season, and an 1.80 ERA in 10 innings since being promoted to Triple-A Round Rock.
These numbers have been impressive enough that Rangers GM Chris Young told reporters (including Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) that the team hadn’t closed the door on the possibility of Rocker making his big league debut at some point before the 2024 campaign is over. Grant ran through the various factors involved, including Rocker’s rough 50-inning cap in his first season back from TJ surgery, and the fact that Texas would be putting Rocker on the 40-man roster perhaps earlier than necessary. With three weeks remaining in the season, there’s still time for Rocker to bank a few more Triple-A innings, and if he keeps forcing the issue, the Rangers still have time to perhaps have the right-hander make a cameo after the minor league season is over.
DodgersBro
“deGrom has looked quite sharp in posting an 0.84 ERA over 10 2/3 total innings in the minors.
…
[Rocket has] an [sic] 1.80 ERA in 10 innings since being promoted to Triple-A Round Rock.”
Imagine citing ERA over 10 innings. People pay for this “expert analysis”?
DeGrom has 15 K’s and a walk against 36 minor league hitters
Rocker has faced 35 AAA hitters. He’s walked 1 and K’d 18.
YankeesBleacherCreature
I appreciate what you’re saying but this isn’t Fangraphs. The writers here rarely do deep-dives into stats. They know their audience. The Athletics have also strayed away from that kind of content unfortunately.
DodgersBro
YBC
K’s and BB’s are a “deep dive”?
Our education system has failed us
YankeesBleacherCreature
You’re not wrong.
pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/24/most-americ…
el_chapo_
Dude a love your trademark snarky cynicism and overall attitude. It definitely makes for an interesting comment section. However can you explain your heavy usage of the ‘return’ button on your keyboard? Your post makes sense and hits home without the blank line in between each sentence!
gbs42
“Statistics compiled during minor league rehab stints should always be taken with a grain of salt…”
Imagine making such a snarky comment about ERA while completely ignoring the introduction to the sentence that included that stat.
DodgersBro
gbs
Right
ERA.
In 10 innings.
During a minor league rehab stint.
Is useless.
Forget taking it with a grain of salt. Forget taking it completely
gbs42
Bro, are Ks and BBs any more useful in such a small sample size?
DodgersBro
fbs
“Bro, are Ks and BBs any more useful in such a small sample size?”
Yes
K and BB rate are two of the quickest statistics to stabilize
baseballprospectus.com/news/article/20516/baseball…
No, I don’t have time to teach you an intro to statistics course. Especially not when I’m sure you’re discussing in bad faith.
Though, I’ll post this for anyone who is actually interested.
library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/
What’s under the “Stabilization? Reliability?” heading is the most relevant to this discussion.
gbs42
Bro,
Thanks for the condescension. I’m aware of rate stabilizations, and I’m not discussing in bad faith.
My point is, if you’re going to complain about ERA in such a small sample size, using stats that aren’t really much more significant is rather disingenuous. Little a major league pitcher does in 10 minor league innings is going to be very telling.
DodgersBro
gbs
“I’m aware of rate stabilizations”
You may be aware of them. I’d be shocked if you understood them.
Because you said this
“are Ks and BBs any more useful in such a small sample size”
to which the answer is “absolutely”
And this
“using stats that aren’t really much more significant is rather disingenuous”
because K rate and BB rate are much more significant in those sample sizes.
True, things like velocity, movement, movement and all the biomechanics are much more telling than BB and K rate
gbs42
10 minor league innings is “absolutely” useful? Okay…
“I’d be shocked if you understood them.”
Quite the presumptuous and condescending comment. Enjoy your arrogance.
DodgersBro
gbs
You’re arguing ad hominem, because it’s all you have.
You can’t argue the points
If you understood sample sizes and stabilization rates, even a little bit, you wouldn’t have said these things
“are Ks and BBs any more useful in such a small sample size”
“using stats that aren’t really much more significant is rather disingenuous”
The 100% truth is that K and BB rates are MORE useful than ERA. Especially in small samples.
You won’t argue that point – which is the point that I made – because you can’t
And, yes, I’m definitely more concerned with being right about this than I am with you liking me, or whatever.
I’ve backed up everything I’ve said – including my belief that you don’t understand the topic that you’re here arguing about. You’ve backed up nothing. Because you have nothing.
To quote Brad Pitt as Billy Beane: You’re just taking. La la la la la
gbs42
From the FG article you linked, strikeout rate stabilizes at 70 batters faced, walk rate at 170 BF.
So the 35-36 batters deGrom and Rocker have faced is halfway to the point where K rate is “stable,” which really is where actual performance is just over 50% of the total significance vs. projection.
It’s barely 20% of the way to where actual BB performance matters significant. And that’s vs major league competition.
There’s some data to back things up.
I never said ERA was more significant, just that 10 IP/35-36 batters isn’t very telling regardless, so your complaint and counter argument don’t carry much weight.
DodgersBro
gbs
“I never said ERA was more significant, just that 10 IP/35-36 batters isn’t very telling regardless”
That’s NOT what you said
This is what was said
gbs: “are Ks and BBs any more useful in such a small sample size?”
DB: “Yes
K and BB rate are two of the quickest statistics to stabilize
baseballprospectus.com/news/article/20516/baseball…”
K and BB rates are much more telling than ERA. Period. This is especially true in small samples.
gbs42
“any more useful” “much more telling”
So largely insignificant is notably more useful than quite insignificant? Congratulations, you win, I guess.
The stats you cited are not close to stabilized at 35-36 batters faced.
DodgersBro
gbs
“The stats you cited are not close to stabilized at 35-36 batters faced.”
I didn’t state they were
I stated that they are much better than ERA over 10 innings
They are
rememberthecoop
He did say to take the stats “with a grain of salt.” Did somebody piss in your Wheaties this monring?
DodgersBro
rtc
As I said earlier
“Forget taking it with a grain of salt. Forget taking it completely”
ERA is nearly useless
ERA in 10 innings is the tiniest step above being completely useless
ERA in 10 minor league rehab innings is like trying to count how many people in full body suits have tattoos.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Texas could be a bounce back candidate next year, this year was doomed from the start with the pitching injuries
God if degrom could pull a Chris sale and randomly get healthy again that would be a 3rd cy young…
Paleobros
It adds a haiku-ness to it all.
DarrenDreifortsContract
That starting pitching isn’t getting any healthier with deGrom and Scherzer in the rotation.
DodgersBro
DDC
Negative comment from one of MLBTR’s biggest trolls
Of course a rotation with two players coming back from injury is healthier.
DarrenDreifortsContract
Each one of them has only started 30 plus games once in the past 6 seasons but okay buddy.
DodgersBro
DDC
Never insult me by saying that I’m your buddy
Starting 1 game is healthier than being on the IL – of course
P/O, troll
A'sfaninLondonUK
@Dodgersbro
Regardless of your miniscule member sample size, do you get up this early in the morning, look in the mirror, and headbutt yourself?
Grace, humility & the ability to agree to disagree seems to be beyond you.
Please, please, please mute me.
And please please please stop…
Kindest regards
Peter
marinerfan
Great. The Mariners have 7 games against the Rangers over the next two weeks. And they get deGrom and Scherzer back. Lovely.
The Ranger Fan
What’s the Mariners biggest issue right now, Hitting?
Angels & NL West
Dbacks are playing TX Tuesday and Wednesday. I was hoping deGrom and Scherzer would be back for those games as I suspect they will not be the best versions of themselves right now. Even if deGrom and Scherzer throw well, they will be out of the game after four or five innings potentially placing a burden on their BPs.
TheStevilEmpire1
Texas isn’t playing for anything. The smart thing to do is shut down deGrom until spring. He’s battled too many injuries and additional time to build strength back in his arm during the off-season is beneficial to him and the Rangers. It would be a shame to see him get injured again in a meaningless late season game.
mlbnyyfan
I’m not sure why Texas didn’t do more at the Trade deadline. Texas, as a wild card team, could have been very dangerous in the playoffs. Zero sense of urgency to repeat as Champs.
A'sfaninLondonUK
@mlbnyyfan
Went to a couple of games in Arlington at the end of June. They lost both. I was astounded at how quiet the fans were, and seemingly accepting of their fate.
Then went to two in Houston (8 or so behind the Mariners at the time) and Houston fans were the absolute opposite. Appreciate the Astros have a much longer series of success, but the difference was stark, not just palpable….
gbs42
The smart thing to do very well could be to let deGrom make a few starts at the major league level to demonstrate he’s ready for next season.
Okie_baseball
I for one am glad they didn’t try to to do more at the deadline, you can’t force it. This clearly was not going to be our year like last year was. Just hope for better health and some return to form next year. Add a bat during the offseason and hope Langford and Carter continue to develop and round out your outfield.
solaris602
All the Rangers have to do is win out, and they’ll have a solid shot at the division.
Okie_baseball
Haha that says more about the state of the AL west than the state of the Rangers lol. Not a great year for the west. Stros probably take it with 88ish wins? Not good.
DarrenDreifortsContract
Seems pointless with their season being over.
DodgersBro
DDC
Troll says what? ANOTHER negative comment from you. Even your screen name. Classic case of someone seeking negative attention because they can’t get any positive attention.
DarrenDreifortsContract
Who are you?
Clofreesz
He’s not wrong. I can confirm as a Rangers fan. You stay in LA.
JoeBrady
This feels like the time to promote Rocker. Let him and Leiter get their feet wet and ready for 2025.
Tuv27❤️
As a life long Astros fan(over 55+ years)-
I agree with a few others, Degrom needs to be bubble wrapped in the dugout, wait till next year!
I Love Lance McCullers❤️, but good grief he also needs bubble wrapped, over a week ago we had an exciting finish, I saw lance jump over the rail in the dugout- I held my breath till he Safely made it to the field
On a more serious note, Defending Champ Rangers have shown how difficult it is to turn around so quickly…
Solid Proof how Remarkable the Astros Run from 2015 lost in the Ds-
(Sent Yankees home in Wc) missed 2016, but 2017- present, 7 straight ALCS, 4 WS appearances.
We have lost Major players, ones we drafted(loved dearly) trades, free agents, etc…
We are Still here, through the season we had 11 or 12 just Pitchers on the IL, two had TJ early in season.
Tuck missed over 3 months.
Breggy quiet first 2 months, now almost a month, he’s dealing with “gremlins”?? in his elbow.
I Love them, even when they frustratingly play down to the level of below 50/50 teams….
On Luis Castillo(Mariners) I am Sorry to hear about his injury, hopefully it’s not serious.
Hope everyone has a Blessed day!
Flanster
Wishing DeGrom the best!!!
A'sfaninLondonUK
@Johnny
De Grom would be HOF worthy if he could stay healthy. Sadly, he can’t. He’s barely played a season over the last four. He’s a “what might have been” not a “what is”….
A'sfaninLondonUK
@johnny
Agreed. He’s brilliant. But he doesn’t have the 7 year sample size that he needs. It’s a shame, but the cliché of ability being availability is valid. I guess the nearest comparison is Koufax, finished aged 30. Koufax has still thrown 1000 innings more…
Miken31
I doubt deGrom ever even gets to 20 starts again in a season.
Clofreesz
Hope DeGrom stays healthy and has a monster 2025.
DarrenDreifortsContract
He’s not going into the HOF for a handful of seasons. Just like Lincecum isn’t.
DodgersBro
JU
Lincecum 27.5 fWAR
deGrom 42.6
deGrom comes up short in all the HoF measures on B-R.