Today's mailbag gets into offseason needs for the Red Sox, how the Cubs might fit Matt Shaw in, possible suitors for Willy Adames, whether Jo Adell has turned a corner, and much more.
Dave asks:
As a disgruntled Red Sox fan (mostly due to John Henry pulling in the purse strings), what are the Red Sox's biggest needs going into next season? I think as always the need for another innings eater in the rotation. Also curious as to if Duran was offered as trade, what type of starting pitching would he command? As for free agents - I don't think the Sox will bring back any of them. Although for the right price maybe Pivetta.
Here's how the team sets up right now:
- C - Connor Wong (R)
- 1B - Triston Casas (L)
- 2B - Vaughn Grissom (R)
- SS - Trevor Story (R)
- 3B - Rafael Devers (L)
- LF - Jarren Duran (L)
- CF - Ceddanne Rafaela (R)
- RF - Wilyer Abreu (L)
- DH - Masataka Yoshida (L)
That doesn't include a quartet of highly-regarded position player prospects: outfielder Roman Anthony, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, infielder/center fielder Kristian Campbell, and catcher Kyle Teel. And of course, Rafaela can play center as well as the middle infield.
The Red Sox will need someone to split time at catcher with Wong until Teel is ready, whether it's Danny Jansen or another veteran. Second base has been an issue, with Grissom, Enmanuel Valdez, and David Hamilton getting the bulk of the playing time there. With Mayer, Campbell, and Rafaela all options there, I don't see much room for a veteran.
The outfield pieces can move around as well. Wilyer Abreu has had an excellent rookie season, though he has not shown the ability to hit left-handed pitching. That problem extended even to Devers and Duran this year. Of the prospects I mentioned, only Campbell bats right-handed. Baseball America touched on this issue recently.
Devers had a strong year, while Story's contract demands a starting job. Yoshida, also well-paid, might not have that luxury. The Red Sox signed Rafaela to a $50MM contract in April, but he really hasn't hit outside of July and is on track for a 1-WAR season. I'm not sure where he fits.
At 4.71 runs scored per game, this has been a good offense. That's despite giving regular playing time to Rafaela. It also includes big contributions from Tyler O'Neill, who seems likely to leave as a free agent, and Rob Refsnyder, who's unlikely to repeat.
Given the versatility and uncertainty around several of these players, there are a lot of ways next year's lineup can shake out. I've seen the idea of trading Duran mentioned here and there. Duran, 28, will be arbitration eligible for the first of four times in 2025 and is under control through 2028. He's split his time between center and left field in his breakout season, and played both positions capably. He's one of baseball's fastest players, his arm is strong, and his Statcast hitting metrics are solidly red.
Duran is on track for a 7-WAR season that in many years would make him an MVP frontrunner. He provided the bulk of his offensive value from June through August, during which he had a 168 wRC+. Duran has an 87 wRC+ against lefties this year, though he did hit southpaws well in June and July.
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Forget bringing back Jansen, especially at anything near the 16m he just got in ’24. He’s not a reliable closer any longer and blew multiple games to players who are really fringe guys at this point, like kike hernandez at LA which was unforgivable. Martin, brought back at around half that would be a much better move to have him with Liam, Slaten and the multiple options they have within the organization along with the probable 1-2 vets acquired.
As for the idea of acquiring Crochet? Duran would be a massive overpay. I could see maybe offering up *1* of top prospects Marcelo Mayer, or Ryan Teel, but not 1 penny more.
The rotation issues towards next season are kind of working themself out with Fitts not allowing any runs thru his 1st 3g 15IP. He looks like he has his short mlb career the same as did the previous cpl months at AAA. A corner was turned by him hopefully and now he’s got 2 nice offspeed pitches, plus a 94-5mph FB.
That Verdugo trade is looking better and better.. Sparky Lyle’s ghost has been excised.
Good catch on Hendriks – meant to mention him, I’ll add that now.
Ceddane raf has 2.7 war were did get 1 from
FanGraphs, he’s at 0.8
Baseball reference he’s a 2.7. Rafaela’s lack of hitting outside of july speaks more to a rookie adjusting to the majors. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt for now.. regardless he was universally regarded as a gold glove caliber defender coming out of the minors in CF so his long term fit is pretty obvious .
The major difference between BR and FG is in their defensive metrics. BR uses DRS which sees Rafaela as a +11 CF and -2 SS this year. FG somehow comes up with -3.2 runs above average at position, which is odd because all of the three systems they offer return positive total defense.
Wally – Why would you call out Tim on a contrived statistical estimate that is proven to be at best highly unreliable?
BR values Rafaela at more than three times what FG values him at, shouldn’t that be all you need to realize WAR is not a stat you should hang your hat on?
tff – I agree, it’s illogical but this is just one example of why WAR is not taken seriously by the baseball community. I’ve completed several different analyses over the years to demonstrate why primarily FG basically said “Let’s create an exclusive new estimated statistic with a convoluted nonsensical formula that will be difficult for others to replicate and requires fans to come to our site to view, driving up traffic and thus increasing our revenue”.
Honestly, I don’t think you have much understanding of WAR or its history.
First, it isn’t really a stat. It is a calculation based on other stats. Different organizations compute it differently. Some put “replacement level” lower than others. (Fangraphs pegs its replacement level higher than B-R.) There are also significant disagreements between the various defensive metrics used, which of course impacts the overall conclusion.
Second, it predates Fangraphs. Baseball Prospectus has been offering VORP for 20+ years (value over replacement player), and B-R developed their own WAR calculation. The Fangraphs version is in my opinion a bit more robust than the others available, and their interface is nicest, so I tend to stick with that one. But it is fair to point out where another organization values a player’s defense significantly higher..
If you want to understand WAR, look at its components. Both B-R and Fangraphs break it down. Agree or disagree with those components? That will alter the conclusion. But the concept is undeniably sensible – a player’s value is the sum of his parts.
Will note that Fangraphs bases its pitching valuation off (more or less) FIP, while B-R bases it off ERA. It comes down to how much run prevention you attribute to the pitcher and how much to the defense behind him. FIP is more stable and more predictive, which is why I prefer the FG version there. A number that jumps around from year to year like ERA does is only useful in the rear view mirror.
tff – As they say, if it looks like a duck and walks like a duck and smells like a duck …. it’s a duck.
Here is the official definition of statistic: “The practice or science of collecting and analyzing numerical data in large quantities, especially for the purpose of inferring proportions in a whole from those in a representative sample.”
That is exactly what WAR does. It takes exclusive formulas utilizing data (ie: results) and comprises estimates based on said data.
I know my speaking up about it on a site that heavily promotes FG is probably not the best idea, so I’ll walk away from this one ;O)
I guess? But it is simply the compilation of other stats that measure performance. It isn’t an independent measure at all.
FWIW, your definition is for “statistics” as a discipline. A “statistic” is something different, “a fact or piece of data from a study of a large quantity of numerical data.”
Nor was it invented by Fangraphs. Half of your objection is that the Fangraphs version is different from the Baseball Prospectus version which is different from the Baseball Reference version. That’s because it isn’t really a statistic. 🙂 It is a concept for a calculation based on statistics. Because there is no consensus on the implementation of the concept, there is no consensus on the final number.
I’ve said it before, will say it again. Statistics don’t relieve you of the need for analysis and judgement. If you spend enough time with a certain statistic, you come to understand what it can and cannot tell you. But it is important to differentiate between the various calculations, even if they go by the same name.
Biggest difference for position players in in the defensive assessment. B-R suggests that the Red Sox defense was +21 runs above average, the ninth best defensive team in the majors. If you cite B-R WAR, you are implicitly affirming B-R defensive metrics. So I assume you believe the Red Sox were a top-ten defensive club this year?
Fangraphs rates the Red Sox defense at -41 runs, the sixth *worst* defense in the majors. We could quibble with the numbers, but in my opinion sixth worst is a lot closer to reality than ninth best.
@FPG, looking into it further…
The B-R methodology simply doesn’t add up. If you total the Fangraphs WAR for batters and pitchers, the Red Sox rank #17 in the majors. Within one win of 14th place, along with the Cubs, Tigers, and Guardians (obviously the Guardians have had the most success from that group this year), but I’m thinking that is a reasonable characterization of team quality?
If you look at B-R, their “Wins Above Average” puts the Red Sox in 10th place, six wins *ahead* of the Tigers. Very possible that the Red Sox *would* be there, if their team defense were +21 like B-R thinks it is rather than -42 like FG suggests.
To believe the B-R numbers you have to accept that the Red Sox are a strong defensive club that has been supremely unlucky this year. The Fangraphs model seems much more reasonable to me, and adds up to something that is a lot closer to the observed reality.
Not the first time I’ve observed this either, which is why I stick to the Fangraphs version these days (while still looking at all the components in addition to the conclusion).
For what it’s worth, it suggests the Red Sox need to add +5 wins of talent to be competitive in the Wild Card race and +10 wins of talent to be one of the top half dozen teams in the majors. Seem about right to you?
Very possible that Chris Sale would have put them over the top this year if he had stayed. Seth Lugo has also been very good, as you have noted. Garrett Crochet if they want to go big in a trade? I know his ERA has been a little sketchy in the second half, but his xFIP leads the majors (minimum 100 innings), and xFIP is more predictive of future ERA than ERA itself.
Offensively, Soto vs. Yoshida would be a huge upgrade. Or my favorite, Vlad Guerrero as a trade target. The Red Sox are a lot closer to contending at this point than the Blue Jays, and he is one of the best RHH in the majors.
But beyond that, just further incremental progress as they bring up young talent and get rid of the veteran retreads (Anderson, Keller) and washouts (Valdez). Anthony has the potential to be an impact player in a few years.
Tff – BP doesn’t use WAR, it uses WARP instead ;o)
To reiterate, I have no problem with analytics in general and actually use them quite often.
The problem I have is when some are overvalued and people make false assumptions based on them. Like assuming hitters with a high BABIP are just “lucky” without knowing enough to realize harder hit balls will lead to more hits as will the intentional guiding of well-placed ground balls and line drives.
john – Agree, looking like a great trade by Breslow while Dugie is making the Mookie trade look worse and worse for Bloom.
And when you look back at how highly both Dugie and Downs were ranked as prospects at points in their career, it definitely shows how flawed prospect ratings can be.
The only positional need is backup Catcher assuming that Refsnyder doesn’t retire and Romy Gonzalez returns as a backup Infielder/Outfielder. David Hamilton should get the last spot on the bench.
Pitching wise unfortunately we will probably say goodbye to Pivetta. However, Giolito should be returning next year. Along with Bello, Crawford and Houck. Whitlock, Priester, Fitts, Criswell, Penrod, Mata and maybe Wincowski should be in the mix and hopefully they get someone off the free agent market. The bullpen will probably lose Jansen and possibly Martin. Hopefully Hendriks is able to comeback. I would like to see them drop the Whitlock as a starter experiment and put him back in the bullpen where he was dominant as a setup man
Admittedly, Romy was a pleasant surprise for them. Surprised me with his bat this year.
Thanks Rsox and Long John for the synopses, always enjoy your takes on the Red Sox current pulse. Liam should be a full go for ST. When is Giolito “presumably” ready? Cheers fellas
RSox- Not sold that Hamilton won’t be seen by the team as trade material and packaged with prospect(s) for pitching over the winter. Have a feeling the negatives on his glove will out shadow his bat and tremendous speed, making him expendable and a shame, his being out of the lineup has hurt the team when combined with adding Valdez to it.. Weaker bat, same defense and no speed.
Agreed on Whitlock as about a perfect 2-3IP reliever, everything (for example) Chase Anderson was not in 24. We need to go back to that LT extension Whitlock signed a few years back, where he was to be.. Yes, tried as a SP, but his option years point it out more. Escalaters on the last 2y where they go up moe with innings pitched and not really sure how both sides would like it IF he is sent back to working middle relief, unless those 2y worth of escalaters are changed and the opn years are already at 8 and 10m, with up to 4m each year in increases. It would be tough unless he was the closer, or lock down 8th inning guy.
Having TJ in April likely means he doesn’t return until around AS break anyway, ditto Giolito.
Rsox – I think “needs” will very much depend on what ownership’s plans are for the upcoming season.
I’m fine with losing O’Neill, won’t miss his constant strikeouts and awful defense. Also won’t miss wondering every day if he’s physically capable of playing.
I expect the only significant offseason acquisitions will be SP and especially relief pitching. You can’t count on Gio to start the season coming off surgery, and I agree they probably won’t pay up for Pivetta. I think Martin will be looking for one last big dollar contract and a good chance to win, and I don’t see the Red Sox meeting his demands considering they don’t plan to contend until at least 2026.
As i said in another thread, i would like to see the get Roki Sasaki but don’t know if they’ll pay up for him considering they wouldn’t for Imanga or Yamamoto but i also think they need a LH starter. Some will say Snell but i don’t think he has the mental makeup for playing in Boston (a la David Price) and I’m not sold that Crochet won’t suffer issues like Whitlock has with the increased workload. Knowing how tight Henry has become with the purse strings i would expect them to go for a “buy low” rebound hopeful like Robbie Ray or Patrick Corbin
Rsox – I am with you on wanting Sasaki, but if he gets posted this offseason then money is not an issue. He would not be a true free agent and therefore would not be able to sign a mega-contract with anyone, because he’s under 25 and hasn’t reached 6 years of service in Japan.
Mookie Betts.
This probably largely duplicates what John & Rsox just said, but here it goes.
1-I’d like to keep Jansen, but I doubt he’ll stick around as a backup. McGuire is probably tolerable depending on when you think Teel gets promoted.
2-Between Story, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Mayer & Grissom (+ maybe Valdez), we shouldn’t invest anything in the MI.
3-Devers and Yoshida should be fine at 3B and DH.
4-Starting outfield should be Duran, Ceddanne, Abreu & Ref.
5-If we want to be serious, we need two #1 SPs. Crawford, Houck, Bello, and Criswell are all fine, but we need 2 SPs and they should be of the .700 winning % types.
There are limits, but I’d go hard after Snell and Crochet (or Sasaki). We have the money to afford a healthy contract for Snell. And Anthony, Mayer, and Campbell might not have an obvious opening on the team for a couple of years. So one of them for Crochet, and a flat out buy on either Snell or Sasaki.
6-Let Jansen walk. Offer arb to O’Neill and let him walk. Throw $7M to Martin and add another top-tier setup guy.
Keep in mind that since the White Sox inexplicably starting limiting Crochets pitches his ERA is close to 7.00. He’s already had one surgery and they have stunted his development. Maybe a new organization can help him like LAD did with Kopech but do not overpay because you’re not sure exactly what you’re getting
since the White Sox inexplicably starting limiting Crochets pitches his ERA is close to 7.00
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1-His K/W is an incredible 36/2, with 2 HRs, in his last 21.1 IPs. It’s a small sample, but there doesn’t seem to be anything wrong with his arm.
2-It’s the gambler in me, but I like to think/hope that these things lower his price tag a little.
“we need 2 SPs and they should be of the .700 winning % types”
This is hilarious on its own accord, of course, but it’s made all the funnier when you then mention wanting Snell (no .700 win% records since 2018) and Crochet (no .500 win% records in his career)
In Crochet’s defense he does play for the White Sox. It’d be a very fine line to try to assemble a .500 record on a team with 120 loses (so far.)
—2-Between Story, Hamilton, Gonzalez, Mayer & Grissom (+ maybe Valdez), we shouldn’t invest anything in the MI.—
Joe- That MI position is where 90% of the trade depth is since it’s what the Sox drafted/signed via IFA mostly the last half dozen plus years and mostly what they developed and much of it is now at either the MLB, or upper levels, they already dispatched Yorke and noticed you left out Meidroth, Campbell, Romero who are also either knocking on the door of MLB time, or at AA and then several other high draft picks/high bonus IFA kids in lower minors need places to play in ’25. Some of the players you mentioned, or ones I named will almost certainly be included due to the glut of (mostly) decent MI prospects the system has with no place upwards to go.
This last month was wasted giving Valdez AB’s at 2b, he’s not been the answer when those should have been going to a Sogard/meidroth. maybe the team was trying to not yet add him to the 40m roster since he won’t be rule 5 eligible until ’25, yet it’s short sighted playing someone whom i feel can’t help the team and won’t be with them next year in valdez anyway.
noticed you left out Meidroth, Campbell, Romero
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I listed Campbell with the OF prospects.
I’d maybe say yes to Sasaki but would probably pass on Crochet and Snell.
We don’t know how the added workload will effect Crochet going into next season and i don’t think Snell has the makeup for playing in Boston (think David Price). I do think the Sox do need a LH starter though but given how the team has spent over the past few years i could see them looking at a “buy low” option like Robbie Ray or Patrick Corbin and hope for a rebound
THE biggest problem is NOBODY wants to play there because of those Commies and their millionaires tax.
????? “Commies” ?????
People that don’t lick the boot are commies. It comes from the old children’s book “Everything I Don’t Like is Communist…and Other Fun Tales”.
There’s no Commies in Baseball. Tom Hanks
sacrifice- U an Erma Bomback reader? Take heed to her former best seller “The grass is greener over the septic tank” and apply it now to socio economics? That’s awfully bright of you.
Rewind to 10 months ago and Sox fans were basically trying to push Duran onto the first flight to Petco Park… did we ever hear why those *real* talks fizzled?
Odd, but I looked at a number of articles, and no one even made a guess. Since you were forced to move Merrill to CF with his 4.2 bWAR, and we stuck with Duran with his 8.7, I’m not sure either side regrets not making a move.
Right? I suspect they’ll ask way too high. No hard feelings, for sure! Mutual disagreement on a price is always OK.
And I was probably one of those fans looking for a trade. Even now, even assuming that O’Neill leaves, we still have 3 pro outfielders, an elite OF prospect, and maybe 1-2 other good ones. Someone will have to go.
Gwynn – I give the Padres MUCH credit for seeing in Duran what Sox management didn’t.
The trade didn’t materialize because the Red Sox didn’t have an adequate replacement for Duran at that time. Remember Rafaela didn’t even make the team until a strong showing during ST, he was quite bad in his time with the Red Sox last year.
And then with the injuries to Grissom & Refsnyder, and O’Neill being a huge question mark, Duran was needed to start the season. The plan was to trade him at the deadline, but his playing like a superstar in the first half of the season obviously killed that trade deadline plan.
BTW – Did you see Bowden’s latest performance the other day? What a find by the Jays, he’s a remarkable story.
Yeah you’re probably right FPG, and Azocar wasn’t enough to compensate and be a full-time LFer.
I drafted Bowden in the 18th round this year, and he’s played himself into Keeper status! Good on him, cheers brah!
So, no need to do my detailed “I told you so” post about exactly what happened to this season and why. I expected mediocrity, as so many did, and we got it. The flaws most posters saw in this roster became glaring eventually. I was also right about the only way the Red Sox were not coming in last would depend on a total collapse of the Rays, and a vastly underperforming Blue Jays team, or both.
We lacked a solid elite power bat from the right side to protect Devers and extend the lineup. We did not get one. O’Neill was a nice pick up in the context of a second right-handed bat to create matchup issues. We lacked that premier righthanded batter we desperately needed, and it showed the entire season. This lineup, even with inflated Fenway numbers, is simply not strong, and it instills fear in no one.
We have a rotation of number 3 through 6 pitchers (6, as in shouldn’t be starting at all). We do not have any pitcher of a caliber that I would consider a number 1 or 2. The fact this team still believes Bello, or anyone else for that matter, is an elite pitcher is preposterous. We did not address replacing Sale, and we did not address upgrading over anything we had on the roster in the rotation. The chance to upgrade was lost, and the chance to knock two inferior pitchers out of the rotation to help a mediocre pen was lost. This became glaring as soon as any issues popped up and we were replacing mid-tier pitching with bad pitching to keep this rotation on life support.
We have not had a dominant lefty reliever since 2013. That is unforgivable for this many consecutive years. When you have a bullpen where Bernardino is your best option from the left side, and talent plummets after him, you will have a long season of bad matchups. Just abysmal bullpen building for 11 years in a row.
The three major areas of need were not addressed, again. This is a deeply flawed team. It is not a very exciting team. It often plays bad fundamental baseball. The record for the past 3 years reflects exactly what this team is. It is “meh” at best. It is “meh” at worst. It is just good enough to hover around .500, and for good reason. What is a crime and unacceptable, is how much money it costs to be so run of the mill.
william – Good to see you back and yes you nailed it.
Interesting fact …. remember our discussion about the lack of Red Sox homegrown starting pitchers over the decades?
This year the Red Sox were blessed with good health as Houck, Crawford and Bello each started at least 30 games.
The last time a Red Sox homegrown trio each started 30 games?
1987 …. Clemens, Hurst and the incomparable Al Nipper!
I was away a lot, but mostly there was no reason to post anymore after that trade deadline. Everyone in the organization knew they had zero chance as long as they ignored their core problems, and they made it a point not to fix them for four consecutive years.
This pipe dream that our number 3,4, and 5 starters are really blossoming aces is just fantasy land. Our bullpen is the island of broken toys and still lacks an elite lefty for the 11th consecutive year. How they didn’t see we needed to stretch and add power is beyond me, and frankly beyond them. Analysis: They were perfectly ok with not having a prayer of being a playoff team, again, again, again.
PS. Good to see you Fever.
William – I totally agree!
My biggest objection to their handling of the trade deadline was insisting they would improve in the form of a RHB and SP … then they acquired one of the coldest hitters and most injury prone pitchers in MLB. Horrible deception by the Sox front office yet again.
I noticed you fell short of calling Swanson a Bust but I can surely say that that contract isn’t exactly fulfilling it’s worth. To think that 2 years ago we had Nico getting the Job done at SS and now everybody wants to trade him because Swanson is here.. I like Swanson but if Swanson, Bellinger were gone we’d have Nico at 11 million playing SS, Shaw and Triantos would have places to play 55 million less in payroll plus Hendricks , Smyly and all the old dead money coming off or about another 40 million. Think of what could be done. Thanks Jed.
While the Angels shouldn’t give up on Adell, I think Adell should give up on the Angels. That goes for all their talent languishing on a team that will only string them along instead of coaching them along.
A bit amusing that MLBTR had trouble finding Adames fits and stretched to speculate about the Braves, Jays and Padres. Calling the Padres payroll “bloated” but not the Braves is nuts. The Braves are number 1 or two in already committed 2025-07 payroll, not the Padres (or the Dodgers or New York teams). And that’s without Fried, Morton, much of a BP or third and fourth OF, all which will require FAs. If the Braves signed Adames, they’d have to choose between a viable offense and staff or draft penalties for most of the 2020s
Adames has a thin market. He may end up sticking with the Brewers on a Bellinger contract at a somewhat discounted price point.