Left-hander Sean Manaea has signed two-year deals with opt-out provisions in each of the past two offseasons and is poised to reenter the market for a third straight winter. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Manaea will opt out of the second year and $13.5MM on his deal “barring unforeseen circumstances.” The lefty himself spoke to Nightengale about his recent pair of short-term deals, noting that he’d certainly consider a longer-term pact but unlike many other players doesn’t mind the short-term, opt-out-laden route.
“I like to think it’s fun because it’s a new adventure,” Manaea told Nightengale. “I mean, it’s a little nerve-wracking when you’re not with a team most of the offseason, but it’s all part of the adventure.”
Manaea, 33 in February, is in the midst of one of his best seasons. He’s started 27 games and pitched 150 1/3 frames with the Mets, working to a sharp 3.35 ERA with a 25% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. After favoring his four-seamer over the past two seasons with the Padres and Giants, Manaea has returned to the sinker he sported with the Athletics as his primary offering, throwing the pitch 40.8% of the time. He’s maintained the increased usage of his slider (26%) at the expense of his changeup (11.7%) — while still throwing occasional four-seamers and cutters.
The new pitch blend has proven largely effective. Manaea is averaging 5 2/3 innings per outing, sitting on what’s nearly a career-high strikeout rate and only issuing walks at a slightly above-average clip. He’s kept the ball in the yard (0.96 HR/9) and done a decent job avoiding hard contact (88.8 mph average exit velocity, 38.2% hard-hit rate). He’s not drawing tons of chases off the plate (27%), but his opponents are making contact on those swings at the second-lowest rate of Manaea’s career (53.4%).
Manaea has long seemed capable of putting together this type of season. He regularly posts better-than-average walk rates and average or better strikeout rates. He was in the consideration to go in the top 10 selections of the 2013 draft but slipped to the No. 34 pick by the Royals due to a hip injury. That was the first of a few notable injury scenarios for Manaea, who most notably missed nearly all of the 2019 season after undergoing shoulder surgery late in the 2018 campaign.
Since that surgery-ruined season, Manaea has been a durable source of innings. He started a nearly full slate of 11 games in the shortened 2020 season and has since appeared in 32, 30, 37 and 27 games per season. The Giants frequently used him as a multi-inning reliever and bulk pitcher behind openers in 2023, hence that year’s 27 relief outings, but he still pitched 117 2/3 frames that year. Manaea hasn’t been on the injured list since returning from that 2018 shoulder procedure.
Given how well he’s pitched for much of the season, it’s hardly surprising that Manaea is intent on once again exploring free agency. A guaranteed multi-year deal should be there this time around, unless Manaea has come to enjoy the mercenary life and having say over his team on a yearly basis. Because he’ll he heading into his age-33 season, a four-year deal is likely the ceiling, and three years seems more reasonable to expect. Even if Manaea “only” secures a two-year guarantee, he’d almost certainly do so while signing for an annual value higher than the $13.5MM under his current contract.
The more interesting question surrounding Manaea will be one of the qualifying offer. The Mets can extend a QO to Manaea if he declines his player option, thus entitling themselves to a compensatory draft pick if Manaea signs elsewhere. They’d need to be comfortable paying Manaea the projected $21.2MM sum of this year’s QO, however.
On its surface, that’s a drop in the bucket for a deep-pocketed club like the Mets. But the Mets have paid the luxury tax every season under Steve Cohen’s ownership, falling into the top tier of penalty in the past two seasons. RosterResource projects them for a $171MM figure next year that’s well below the forthcoming $241MM tax barrier, but the Mets could see Manaea, Pete Alonso, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, J.D. Martinez, Adam Ottavino, Harrison Bader, Ryne Stanek, Brooks Raley, Phil Maton and Jesse Winker all hit free agency. They’ll have many, many holes to fill and it won’t take much to push them right back up into luxury territory.
If the Mets return to the top tier of penalization — they’re already rumored to be among Juan Soto’s suitors and will presumably pursue other high-end targets, particularly in the rotation — that would mean a 110% tax on that salary. That’d be a total of $44.52MM if Manaea accepts. Even if they’re in a lower tier, a 62% tax or 95% tax would still put Manaea’s total expenditure on a QO in the $34-41MM range. And, as a luxury-paying team, the Mets would only receive a comp pick after the fourth round in the event that Manaea signed elsewhere. That minimal compensation and huge tax bill might allow Manaea to hit the market without the burden of draft compensation, which would only further strengthen his free-agent case on the heels of a strong season.
I’m not a Mets fan, but I’m sure Mets fans are OK with this as I am sure Mets fans are hoping Steve Cohen opens his checkbook to pay for C Burnes
No guarantee they’ll sign Burnes & they’ll also have to replace Severino and Quintana, so having a 1-2-3 of Senga, Manea, and Peterson woulda been nice.
I think cohen is more focused on giving Soto a stake in his hedge fund (is that how it works I’m not a stock market guy?)
But burnes could be a fallback option, I have to think cohen wants to bring someone in because he hasn’t opened the wallet in a year, that’s a long time for him
Not sure Burnes’ status is dependent on what happens with Soto. The Mets actively and aggressively pursued both Ohtani and Yamamoto last year. So they could do the same with Soto and Burnes.
But they weren’t pursued at the same time. The second was pursued only after they failed to sign the first. Unknown if money was available for both.
stymeedone… Stearns said they were after both in a late offseason interview. He was also asked how he reconciles pursuing them with the stingy spending that came after. His response was that those were transformational players who raise the level of the entire team. Had the Mets landed them, the org would have then gone on to spend even more money to put a complete team around them.
Once the Mets failed to land either, it did not make sense to dump big money onto what was available afterwards. He has also said on multiple occasions that while the priority is sustainable long-term competitiveness, the team goal should be to contend in each and every year – not at the expense of sustainable long-term competitiveness. But he believes they can do both at the same time. He acknowledges it is like threading a needle, but still thinks this org can do it.
If this team had been terrible this year, then he might’ve had the impetus to hold Cohen off and cut spending/rebuild for a year or two. But now that they’ve contended, there’s no way Cohen accepts seeing the team take a step back.
Cohen said this year was not supposed to be the big year, but I could see the Mets never rebuild again after 2024 with cohen because they have good prospects on top of a basically infinite payroll
If they always spend the most they should always be good right? All stars and quality players make a team good, even captain obvious knows that
Bill M: It still could be. Manaea could opt out and sign a new contract to return.
Hopefully, that’s what he’ll do. He’s been lights out ever since he copied Chris Sale’s arm motion.
Replacing Quintana shouldn’t be an issue.
I would much rather the Mets re-sign Manaea than chase Burnes, for a variety of reasons. Manaea will be much less expensive, he’s been very effective especially lately (cutting down on walks, changing arm angle, altering his pitch selection at the behest of Jeremy Hefner), and he’s a great clubhouse presence. On the flip side, Burnes will command more AAV as well as years. His K numbers have been declining (Manaea has more K/9). He has the same ERA+ as Manaea (119) and a similar FIP (Burnes 3.66, Manaea 3.75).
Give me Manaea at 3-4 years and whatever he costs (I would assume similar to Taijuan Walker’s deal) than Burnes at 6+ years and over $100 million. Saves money to go after Soto.
I’m not sure why you equate the pursuit of Burnes with the pursuit of Soto. Cohen does not need to ‘save money’ to go after Soto. Money will not stop the Mets from pursuing Soto, and signing him plus replacing the other departures/needs will put them over the threshold regardless. You’re also making the assumption that Manaea repeats this year’s performance, despite his inconsistent history.
Besides, even f the Mets do re-sign Manaea, they would still need another FOTR starter to move forward.
This is Manea’s best season, EVER. If it’s because Manaea has returned to the sinker or a better mix, great.
But if I’m the Mets, I wouldn’t be doling out $21M to Manaea, despite the market for starters.
He has pitched very well this year. 2 yrs $32 mil with a team option for a 3rd year is best I would do for him ..
BigV: How much of the “best you would do” would be coming from your bank accounts?
How much of the “best you would do” would be coming from your bank accounts?
=================================
One would need to know the overall team revenue, relative to what they individually contribute to know how much is coming from their own bank account.
But just for funnsies, have you ever calculated what percentage of team payroll you are responsible for?
Not a dime. You know what I meant. Smarta__
Agreed. Manaea has had 2 back-to-back decent years, but those down years that led up to it have to make you hesitant to shell out big $ and years. Kinda the same with Flaherty who was dogsh*t a year ago but is suddenly an ace. You really do need a crystal ball to know when players like this are gonna turn back into pumpkins.
Taijuan Walker got double the years and more than twice the amount of money. If you only do 2/$32 million, Manaea will be on another team next year. The difference, imo, is that Walker faded down the stretch in his contract year, meanwhile Manaea is finishing strong. I would expect a 3/$60 million or maybe even matching Walker’s 4/$72 million for Manaea.
Manaea’s older than Walker was so I doubt he gets the 4/72, but a comp toward what Bassitt got works. Wasn’t that right around 3/60 also?
Good point. I would definitely offer Manaea the Bassitt deal if he keeps pitching well. Then maybe stretch to the Walker deal if he declines.
Do you think they offer the QO? I’m thinking they do if they can’t work out the extension pre-FA.
Verlander and Scherzer will probably be out there again….. lol.
David Robertson for the pen.
Dom Smith to replace Alonso.
Juan Soto and Old-Timers day at CitiField.
( please everyone, before attacking, I am joking. )
Well, if you back the American flag, its no wonder you’re an idiot.
Huh?
“It’s no wonder you’re an idiot”..Do communists really drink this early in the morning?.
WiffleBall
===========================
Congratulations on the dumbest comment of the day.
“Dumbest comment”…Give “Wiffle” some time because commies aren’t too bright and pretty soon it’ll only be the second “dumbest comment of the day”.
Johnny – Add O’Neill to the list, he appears to have “hit the gym” this year.
But then you’ve got guys like Verdugo who can’t be bothered, even in a contract year.
I will never understand fans like FPG who think a player “can’t be bothered” because he’s not an all-star in his walk year. Verdugo is on the field every day, putting in good effort.
Just because the results haven’t been stellar doesn’t mean it’s for a lack of effort. Would much rather Verdugo than a guy who will put up big numbers one year, sign a huge deal, then fall back to nothing.
Btw, it’s much more likely that Cruz is pumping PED’s to secure a huge contract than Verdugo is giving up.
Wiff – I find it fascinating you view my comment about Dugie as a negative thing.
Don’t you think, at the very least, it’s a form of deception when players put forth more effort in their contract year?
I actually respect the fact he’s not pulling a Jose Reyes on potential suitors, clean or not.
You really should think twice before attacking people for what you perceive, especially if you don’t understand what they meant.
Are Mets fans ok with a starter announcing he’s leaving when they are 1/2 game out of the wild card? Just like Corbin Burnes last week talking about what he’ll look for in his next team while this team is in first place. What’s wrong with these guys?
They were OK with the Mets signing Bartolo Colon who actually left the Red Sox during the season while the team was in a playoff run. So why not be OK with this – as long as he keeps pitching like this.
You re ignoring the fact the wife won’t commit to him in this example for more than another year either(if he were to stay).
It’s part of the business. It’s no secret which players are likely to opt out. If he lies to reporters they and fans turn on him.
Yep, the correct comparison here would be that wife and husband are married, but about to get a divorce in November, and the husband or wife is already talking about where he or she will live next and might dream about with whom.
Or just f***ing the neighbor
tuck 2: He’s going to opt out of his contract. That doesn’t mean he’s leaving.
It’s just not the time to be discussing this with the media, just say you are focused on the wild card race.
Patriot2992: In your opinion. But what harm has he done to anyone?
Correct. While he doesn’t have to leave the optics are the same and the message is the same.
—Its never cool when a player announces he’s leaving before season ends but especially when there’s another month left —
The Boras factor. Who do you think orcheastrated the timing? not Manea. Simply PR, for monetary reasons.
He didn’t announce he’s leaving.
Nah, its the media asking stupid questions. Most would respond, I’m only thinking about this year. Sometimes players are caught off guard and actually answer.
Yup!
Additionally, I’m ecstatic that he’s pitched the Mets into WC contention. Totally deserves the opt out clause and quite possibly the QO, as discussed.
There were so many doomsday predictions on this rotation, esp after the Senga injury. They’ve collectively proven capable and resilient.
He didn’t announce anything. That’s the misconception. Reporters asking him and his agent questions is very different from him holding a press conference announcing that he doesn’t plan to return.
Also, this just means he’ll opt out, not that he won’t return under a new contract if offered.
I don’t think it’s a big deal, but players need to learn how to say ‘this is neither the time nor the place’.
Joe, this is not the time nor the place for level-headedness.
@Von: as usual, you are spot on. In addition, any Mets fan already knows that barring a major injury, Manaea is opting out. He’s pitching too well to take the player option. It’s not even news for him to say this.
“Aren’t the brightest folks”…Athletes are coddled, enabled and passed along in school due to their athletic prowess. Most are tone deaf and out of touch, just like your average Hollywood celebrity.
Nothing he said suggests he won’t be pitching at his best the rest of the season, since his market value depends on it.
I don’t think there’s an issue with what he said. I think it’s an issue with your interpretation. The guy never said he was going to leave.
Ozuna has a option that will be picked up
Of course he wants to leave.
LordD99: Not necessarily. He just wants to maximize his value in the open market, as he has earned the right to do.
What are you talking about?
Colon left the Red Sox without permission in mid-September 2008. When they pushed him, he said it was to attend to personal matters in the DR but it was not substantial enopugh to satisfy the team. They gave him a few days, but he never returned to the team at all.
I think its funny how the Mets made some better moves the offseason they were spending less money (Senga was a good get tho). Severino and Manaea were smart signs. There were a lot of good upside plays in the SP market last offseason tho. Teams make better decisions when they have some sort of payroll limitation they are working with (even if it is somewhat trivial compared to other teams limitations). It makes them use their brains more. Less impulse.
There were so many Mets fans complaining about Cohen dumpster diving, not opening his wallet and how much of a corrupt owner he is and bashing Stearns on his signings. So many were quick to forget how Cohen spent in previous seasons and how it backfired but look how the turn tables
I would pay a decent amount to sit in on negotiations between boras and teams when he is discussing alonso.holy delusion
Talk about NOT maximizing your walk year…
So glad Stearns is in.
Eppler would def overpay by 40% or so.
I think he goes to the Angels for more than he’s worth.
When Manaea is on he is a very good starter. When he is not he is pretty bad. He is on right now and will try and milk that for a good deal this offseason. He will probably get another deal similar to the one he is on now. Which makes opting out the correct decision.
I wonder if Manaea is angling for the qualifying offer. It would be a huge raise (>50%) while giving him the “new adventure” he craves. Even if he had a down year in 2025, he likely could sign a one-year deal for 2026 that would pay him more than $32 million for a two-year deal signed in the offseason..
League average SIERA is 3.801 and he’s pitching to a 4.02. Not terribly off the mark but at the same time, I’d be wary of offering some big contract to him, though, given his age and lack of sustained success.
I’m not sure where you’re getting the 3.801 number from. The league average SIERA is 4.03.
fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&st…
@Squeeze32
Weird, I was looking at that same page an hour ago and it showed 3.801. Must have been a glitch.
Go back to when the Mets signed Manaea. I was the only one on MLBTR calling it a great signing. Looks like I was right, again…
Do you think anyone remembers who you are or what you said?
…or cares?!
LOL! I’d like to think I’ve made some good calls, but it’s a little odd to brag about the ones you got right. Discussing the ones you got wrong is usually more entertaining.
Bird over Judge anyone?
@JoeBrady I’m never wrong. How can I discuss something thats never happened?
Go find your comments on Zack Britton.
@BradCu 2 ,jealousy is a sin. Don’t be upset just because I’m a baseball expert and you’re not. Its ok, I’m always right. It gets tiring sometimes but I still manage to power through
Do you want a medal or a monument? How old are you, 11?
Aren’t you the guy who is constantly complaining about Stearns and dumpster diving? Yeah, you get no credit here.
I have my doubts about anything Nightingale writes. Having said that, they will make a good effort to head this off at the pass with Manaea. Especially if he leads us to the playoffs, and does well. The main thrust of the offseason is going to be the rotation…again. Then more focus on the bullpen. And I really don’t believe they are going to pursue Soto that hard. Soto isn’t a good defensive player. He’s all bat. And when you consider that we have Marte for one more season, Nimmo singed long term, Drew Gilbert in AAA, who may very well be ready after some winter ball, there really isn’t room for a player like Soto on the defensive side of things. Does a $50-60 mil per year DH really make sense? Let the Yankees or Nationals do that. I’d rather pay my rotation, and bullpen. If I’m going to pay a player that much money, he’d better be a good defender, along with his bat. What sense does it make to spend that kind of money on a player who gives back that many runs?
Since the Yankees and Nationals are two of my least favorite three teams I have never cheered much for Soto and I have noticed that he is not only an average defender at best but he is a poor baserunner and sometimes does not run all out.
The Mets do not need him.,
@ Jdt8312 They’re almost certainly going after Soto. And none of the names/reasons you cite change that. You’re overstating his defensive shortcomings, and Marte is an even worse defender with a much weaker bat – one that doesn’t hit RHers anymore. Not to mention the injuries. You need 3 OFs as starters, and at least one reliable one on the bench. And the Mets won’t have that once the free agents leave. There’s no telling when Drew Gilbert will be ready. It could be sometime next season. Or it could be another year down the road. He got off to a terrible start in AAA before the injury, and was poor for a full month after coming back. He’s hit a cluster of HRs lately, but its only 8 games or so. And other metrics have remained suspect even during this mini-“hot” streak.
f you want to go into next year with a starting OF of Nimmo, Taylor, and Marte as your starters, and Gilbert, Stewart on your bench, you’re asking to fail.
I think Stewart will be non-tendered. Nimmo and Taylor will be there and I’m fairly sure they’ll bring Gilbert up to start the season (assuming he plays AFL or winter ball). But I agree, they’ll go hard after Soto. I think they’ll be all in on him.
I could also see Marte traded for RP with the Mets eating half his salary.
I see absolutely no basis for assuming that Gilbert will be on the team to start the season. He simply hasn’t done enough to warrant it. AFL or winter ball is good for getting him more reps to make up for the lost injury time. But its nowhere near a proving ground. Mauricio was the 2022-2023 league MVP in what is regarded as the most advanced winter league around. And he opened and spent most of 2023 in AAA. When he did come up, he was exciting for three weeks, then stumbled a bit for the next 2 weeks. Even if Gilbert did make the team, what makes you assume he would be productive and not be sent down? How many times do we have to see this move before we realize how it really works?: Most prospects don’t stick in the majors on their first or second call-up. Only the top-tiered superstars do that.
Because of his defense. If you have a plus defender like Gilbert in CF, they can live w/ the streaks on offense. Unfortunately, Mauricio is more of a liability on defense. I think if Gilbert shows any promise on offense in fall/winter and ST, he’s on the team. And I’m willing to bet the upgrade from Soto over Marte would outweigh the falloff from Bader to Gilbert.
Except that Gilbert is not [yet] a plus defender in CF. That is the general fan and NY media misinterpretation of what the pundits are really saying. Some of them rate him as a starting corner, calling his defense in CF only adequate. Others rate him as only a 4th OF because his HR power is [thus far] a little light for a corner.
the bottom line is that he isn’t even hitting consistently at triple-A yet. So to pencil him in for the start of next season is overly optimistic to the point of short-sighted. Maybe he makes huge strides and earns a spot. But if he does, that would be a surprise, not an expectation. Either way, its an uncertain enough that it is not something on which to build the team’s plans.
Marte, Taylor, and Nimmo will be there. Bader will be resigned if Gilbert isn’t ready. They aren’t going after Soto. Stearns is an intelligent metrics guy. He uses the numbers in conjunction with what he sees with his own 2 eyes. Soto is not a player Stearns would go after. And when you consider all the other positions the Mets are going to need to address this offseason, spending that much on one player, and putting yourself that much closer to the top tax tier after all the money coming off isn’t in the cards.
Oh really? Why is 4/5th of that combo working this year. Soto would be a waste of money. We will need to rebuild our pitching staff. I’d rather pay good pitching with that money. Signing one player to a $60+ mil per year contract is not going to lead us to winning either. Juan Soto can’t carry a whole team. Look at the Yankees. I don’t care about HR’s. I care about wins
Thats the point though, having soto leads to more wins. You dont think hes a huge reason the yanks have basically equaled their wins from last year already? In a year where they got very little from the reigning CY winner.
He’s not the only reason. There is no doubt he’s a net offensive positive for any team. The question is how many runs does he cost on defense over a superior defensive player. And you have to calculate how much payroll is worth the amount of wins he’s actually worth. The point I was making is that the Mets have other positions of need before they bring in an overpaid RFer who is, at best, a little below average. I don’t see David Stearns prioritizing Soto over the rebuild of the starting rotation, and adding to the bullpen. I also don’t see Stearns going back over the “Cohen” tax threshold for Soto because it will keep him from adding other players of need later in the season. I’d rather them bring back Bader than sign Soto. The Mets will need 3 starters from somewhere, and, i believe 3 bullpen arms. Then decide if they want to keep Alonso. There is a lot to be thought about before deciding to go all in on Soto.
I don’t see them needing 3sp or 3BP arms so we see that differently. A number 2-3 sp and a depth sp i can definitely see. BP actually looking fairly set barring lingering injury issues. Diaz maton butto nunez young brazoban… SRF if healthy and maybe garrett. I could see one higher end RP signing.
And soto doesnt cost nearly the amount of runs on D that he gains batting. I absolutely get your point about investing so much on him, but he likely has 6-7 prime years left. And i think they can get him and stay under the tax threshold. Would require a trade or two vs only going FA route though. I think it can be done.
Jdt8312 All of what you’re saying is arbitrary and speculative. And you’re overstating the defense issues. Rather than opining and pontificating about the difference/merits of his offense vs. his defense, why not put some substance to your argument and give us the metrics – the ones you said Stearns would use. Because this year his defense is bit below average, while his offense has been stellar. His WAR, which takes both into account, is over 7. On balance, Soto has been a mix of bad defensive seasons and and not-so-bad ones. And its not as if he’s a butcher out there. He just has limited range – as do many RFs. But his arm strength is well-regarded.
You’ve based your opinions on the (again) arbitrary ideas that Soto will cost $60 million, and the Mets could get three players for that price. The real number could be far short of that. You’ve also placed some presumptive limitations on what Stearns will do and what kind of payroll Cohen will greenlight. If you’d actually seen Stearns’ interviews on the subject since the day he got here, you’d see that he’s actually very flexible, thoughtful, and considers a lot of angles in his approach.
What the Mets will do has not been determined yet. How far they go this year will play a huge role in the expectations and plans for next year. But if you believe Steve Cohen will follow up a run at the playoffs with a season of reducing payroll at the risk of seeing the team regress, I think you’re very mistaken.
That not realistic. You speak as if those relievers are established entities, and most of them are not. Where is the depth if they don’t work out? Where is the reliable set-up man who can move into the closer’s role if needed? Nunez was a complete unknown to Mets fans (and press) six months ago even though he’s been in the org for years. And now you want to hand him a key role with no Plan ‘B’ after what has basically been a only half a season?
Let’s try and remember: this team has not actually made the playoffs yet, and may not get past the first round if they do. So suggesting that we just bring the same band back isn’t good enough to get to the real goal. Same can be said for starting SP.. You cannot assume that Senga plus a number two is all it takes to move this team forward. How many times have we seen Peterson show promise and regress. Do we know that Scott will have a good year, or will he have ups and downs as young pitchers often do? As of now, Sevy and Manaea are going to test free agency. Tthe Mets bring them back, it will cost more money, and they’re career histories provide zero reason to assume that they will perform to the same standard in ’25 as in ’24.
So, yes, the Mets need 3 SPs and 3 BP arms.
Manaea is going to opt out. Severino is on a one year deal. Quintana’s deal is up. That’s 3 starters, whether you see it or not. Maton is a free agent after this season. But to may be a starting rotation option next season. Nunez is proving hard to keep healthy. I don’t think they are going to pursue Soto like everyone else does. He’s not the kind of player that Stearns would sign. $60 mil per is too much, and for the amount of years you’re going to have to give him, it’ll never be a good return. Let someone else make that mistake.
These are not arbitrary ideas. I’ve watched Soto. Love his bat. His defense leaves a lot to be desired, as you have stated. The problem with defensive metrics is there are any that are consistent. You have to watch a player to get a real idea of what kind of player they are. I don’t watch the Yankees often, but I’ve seen Soto in past years with the Nationals and Padres when they played the Mets. I always hated seeing him at the plate, loved when we hit the ball to him. Aaron Judge is making over 40 mil per season. If you think a young Juan Soto is going to get less than 50 mil per for at least 10 years, you’re kidding yourself. I see him going upwards of 60 mil per. I wouldn’t pay that for him. If he were a 5 tool player, maybe we could talk. But if he fails to perform, or gets injured, you’re stuck. The contract is an albatross. And no one is insuring that whole contract. You may get half if he gets hurt, but I wouldn’t count on it. Now if you’d tell me which of the two major defensive metrics you value most, I’ll find them. Yes, he’s got a top tier arm. But he doesn’t track fly balls well. He doesn’t field balls well. He doesn’t get to balls quickly.
If you listen to Steve Cohen speak at all, you’d know for a fact he has stated that staying over the top tax rate, the “Cohen” tax, is unsustainable. So yes, I do believe they will trim payroll after a playoff run because he has said that the goal is to get under the top tax threshold. He’s a multi multi billionaire because he knows how to handle money, and how to invest. And when he says spending at that rate is unsustainable, I believe him, and I believe he will take appropriate action to curb spending. If you want to hear what you want to hear, and not believe what the owner has stated, you’re not alone. But you are going to be disappointed when reality hits. Stearns was hired exactly because of his approach, like you stated. That being said, you should know he is a metrics guy, but not strictly, and he looks for players who perform that don’t break the bank. Just look at his deadline acquisitions. Effective both in the field, and in cost. It’s not that the Mets won’t have a top payroll. They will. But they won’t be spending foolishly. 50-60 mil for Soto is foolish when there are so many other needs at the end of the season, and RF not being one of them. Nice talking to you.
@jdt
Maton isnt a FA until 2026
And i see theyll need 3sp but they dont need to provide all three through FA. They have senga peterson blackburn scott as four sp. i believe sproat will be up early 2025. Just bc you and geoff dont agree doesnt change my thinking. Im sure the mets see him being up next season too, like they did w scott this year. Like i said, a number two type and a depth piece would be okay imo.
Its fine, we dan disagree on soto. I think he’s a big difference maker on offense, a top 5 mlb bat.
And i dont think the mets FO is thinking they need to bring in 3 RP. Relievers are up and down anyway, so there are zero guarantees in any BP. But i like diaz maton butto as high leverage guys. Between brazoban garrett young nunez SRF megill im sure they arent looking to add three more.
If you’re assuming 60M a year then i get why youre so against it. I think it will take $47m a year, just to top ohtani’s NPV deal. 12/564 is my assumption just bc there are very few teams willing to go that high.
If you look at how Sproat is doing in AAA Syracuse, I’d say 2025 is a bit early. Our young pitchers in AAA are not progressing very quickly, and some have taken a step back. Maton signed a 1 year deal with the Rays in February. He’s a free agent after the season. Soto is absolutely a top 5 offensive player in MLB. I question if the total package is worth 50-60 mil per year.
Maton club option for next year, UFA in 2026.
I have faith Sproat will be up around Memorial Day next year. I’m not overly optimistic or pessimistic about prospects in general, but he looks to have the stuff and command that can play well in mlb. We’ll see, but I don’t see him needing a lot of AAA time unless he struggles there of course.
If it’s in the 55-60M range then I’m with you. If it’s in the 45-50M range, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them all in.
With all due respect, he’s been struggling in AAA. 6.75ERA in 22.2 innings @ Syracuse.6 HR’s,8 BB, .273ooponents BA against.
I apologize, you are correct about Maton.
I just want them to have the flexibility to be able to add if they need to, and if they are up against the tax threshold, they won’t do it as effectively. I also enjoy watching good defense. It has been a complete joy watching these guys make plays this year. Good defense enhances your pitching staff. The defensive player Vientos has turned himself into is surprising, and not what was advertised when he was sent down. And I love the fact that Mendoza switches in his best defenders in the later innings. Soto is a great hitter. He has a great arm. It’s catching and fielding the ball that detracts from his value. If we can get him for somewhere around what Judge got, I agree with you, with a stipulation on length of contract, and team/player opt outs.
Maybe, i think if they give a player opt out a frw years into the contract where can be a FA again at say, 29, maybe he would consider a more favorable deal.
Yes, sproat struggled his first few aaa starts, but then excellent his last one. May be beginning to adjust (unlike Tidwell).
I hate the player option
if they opt in it means they suck
But contracts also often include team options, so what’s the difference?
Not a significant difference, but club options typically (almost always) include a buyout to the player if the club decides not to pick up the option.
geofft: But that’s just money. It doesn’t change the nature of the option.
Blue Baron.. I did say ‘not’ a significant difference.
That said, I think Brad is speaking from a fan’s perspective: in a player option, the payer controls his fate and the club gets the short end no matter what the player decides.. if he leaves they have to spend more money to replace his performance. If he stays, they’re stuck paying him more than he is worth. In a club option, the club has control and can decide if brining the player back is worth it, or can cut ties.
geofft: You are correct. Many fans, for whatever reason, are OK with the club being in control but not as much with the player being in control.
Perhaps it’s because the player is a readily identifiable individual and the club is a somewhat amorphous entity.
Personally, I take the opposite stance. I’m just as happy with the player being in control because that’s who we actually pay to watch.
Most of us root for the laundry, and would like to see the same players in that laundry if they are effective players. Personally I don’t take any solace in seeing a player who used to be on my team do well for someone else.
Jdt8312: But by the same token, you might see a player who previously played for an opponent doing well for the Mets.
Or a coach/manager like Buck Showalter or Carlos Mendoza.
It cuts both ways.
For me it’s rare that I root for former players, or managers. I will absolutely root for players that were opponents, and have signed with the Mets. But that’s because they are Mets now. I didn’t have a problem rooting for Glavine when he came here from the Braves. I love Bader, even though he was a Cardinal and a Yankee. There is less vitriol depending on the circumstances of a former players departure. But that’s the best I can do. I’m a fan of my team, and if a player or manager is no longer with the team, again, depending on the circumstances of their departure, I have varying levels of emotion about them. But I very rarely root for them. If you’re different, more power to you. Nothing wrong with it.
I don’t necessarily root for them, but I respect the right they have worked hard to earn to choose where they want to play, even if it means leaving as deGrom did and Alonso might.
I also respect their right to leave. I still respect their talent. But let’s face facts here, the Mets didn’t retain Deron because they knew his medicals, and offered 3 years out of respect. If Pete leaves, he leaves. He’s not wearing our uniforms anymore. I’m not a fan after that. I don’t want him to leave. But if he does, he does.
And if they opt out, they’ve very likely given you surplus value on the contract thus far.
Nice season but him totally blundering wild card game vs rays is what I remember lol
Nice observation, A’s fan. Actually, in 3 post season games he has pitched 7.2 innings, given up 13 hits of which 6 left the yard, and add 3 walks for a Whip of over 2.
Is he a post-season choke? It remains to be seen, if he gets another chance this season.
Asfan0780: If every player was evaluated based on a bad game/outing, there would be no one in the Hall of Fame.
Don’t forget; Verlander’s option won’t be kicking in for next year. The Mets will save another $17.5M thanks to that. That would bring their Roster Resource payroll down to around $153.4M heading into the off-season. The Mets are going to have plenty to spend.
@ mikeinnj THose numbers are at best quasi-reliable. And even at $153.4, they’d only have $90 mil to spend and a heck of a lot of holes/needs/replacements on which to spend it.
Santander
I’d prefer paying him $25 – 30 mil a year over $50 mil for Soto.
Before the torches and pitchforks come out, I am in no way suggesting that Santander is a better player than Soto. I would find more value in a 3 – 4 year contract at $28 mil AAV for Santander than 11 years at $50 mil for Soto.
I saw the Mets- White Sox series this weekend and it looks like Luis Robert has no interest in playing baseball. So no team is going to go after him on a trade-and-extend. Right now as a Mets fan I wouldn’t trade anything more than Brett Baty for Robert, and maybe not even that.
I want Bader and Winker back for sure.
I believe that the Mets will pursue bringing back Winker, Severino, Alonso, Iglesias and Raley. Drew Gilbert will most likely claim Bader’s roster spot, unless Bader agrees to a sizable hometown discount.
Baty’s situation is a little trickier, because every article I’ve seen states that the organization is still very high on his capability to bounce back as an MLB hitter. If that’s the case, they will probably platoon him with Vientos at 3B, and have Vientos platoon DH with Winker.
I 100% agree that Robert is not a viable option for the Mets. The options the Mets currently have in-house hold far more value than an uninspired, injury prone power hitter. Dude reminds me of Jason Bay..
Sevy loves NY and Mendy loves him. Manea is happy. I can see the Mets signing them both to 2 year deals with an opt out at 36-40 million each. Those two with Senga, Peterson, Blackburn and maybe Scott will be the rotation. Cohen is going for Soto. Not a frontline starter.
I think Sproat will be in that mix and may eventually be better than all but Senga. That could be a while, but I could see him on the club early next year.
Sproat is getting absolutely bombarded in AAA on a regular basis. He will overcome that at some point. But to talk about his timeline being early next year is just baseless optimism Again, listen to what David Stearns actually says about him.
@geoff looks like sproat already adjusting to AAA. Dominated last time out.
Oh, you’re right. One dominant start means he’s all set now. Because minor leaguers players never have hot games or streaks and then regress.
@geoff
Whats w the attitude? I said looks like he’s adjusting, not that he’s MLB ready.
Why wouldn’t Cohen go for both Soto and a frontline pitcher? He did that last off season. Let’s start with a reality check: The goal is to improve, not stand still. And this team has not actually made the playoffs yet. And even if they do, they might not get very far. So, yes, a frontline pitcher should be on the wish list. And if they if Manaea keeps pitching like this, I don’t think he takes that deal.
They can’t afford both and stay under the threshold, and I think that’s the primary goal this offseason. QO for Manaea and hope he takes it?
@ Ma4170 No one who matters has said that staying under was the primary goal. If they had a bad season, it probably would be. But now that they’re a contender, do you really think Steve Cohen will stand pat rather than try to move up? They can’t sign Soto and stay under without bringing back a weaker team.
They’d be foolish not to, they’re just not advertising it to the fans. Just like the Dodgers did last offseason. The penalties make it way too difficult to continue to build a strong farm, and they should take advantage while they can. But they can get Soto and still be under the threshold without weakening the team that much.
I don’t disagree that they should try and stay under. But I don’t believe thats what they will do. Not after what they did this season. They are no longer rebuilding. They’re slated to be some 80-90 mil under the threshold before arb raises. Soto alone will take up $45 million of that. Arb will take up at least $10 if not 20. That leaves them just $30 mil or so to replace Manaea, Sevy, Alonso, and half the bullpen. Baty and/or Mauricio will not replace Alonso’s off-year production – so the team is weaker there. Sevy and Manaea were on bargain basement deals. Replacing them will cost more.
Listen to what David Stearns says to the press in its entirety, rather than just seeing the sound bites and written reports that the press takes out of context. it gives a clearer understanding of what the Mets’ plan/intent is.
Well, we’ll see. They can also trade in offseason (and of course during the season) – could crochet be a possibility? I could see QO for manaea (which is an $8M raise) or a new deal. They’ll have senga peterson blackburn scott already. Im sure theyre hoping sproat will be up earlyish. Between diaz maton butto nunez brazoban Reid-foley megill the BP may only need one more piece.
Alonso big power but soto is so far beyond him all around its a huge upgrade, and i have a feeling mauricio will be very good in spurts (and its not like alonso is steady, hes very streaky too). Not quite ready to give up on baty (unless he gets traded).
I just think they’ll do all they can to stay under and still compete.
I’d like the Mets to bid up the Yankees as far as they’ll go.
The Mets should offer Manaea 2 yrs/$40mm or 3 yrs/$57mm – his choice. Then, if he doesn’t take it (I’d go up to $21mm/yr), hit him with the QO and raise the price for everyone else.
I think someone else mentioned this, but the Roster Resource number includes Verlander’s 17.5M, which won’t vest, so that comes off. Plus the current number includes Manaea’s 13.5M. So in reality if he opts out, they’ll be going in with $140M before arb raises and FA.
“Going in with $140M”…Assuming your numbers are reasonably accurate, the Mets should spend efficiently this off-season but also try to reset their penalty tax rate by staying under the CBT for at least a year.
That would allow them to decide if and when to take on more substantial payroll in the semi-near future. The Mets do have a so called “money advantage”, so they may as well try to efficiently use it to their best advantage.
Yes, that’s before any arb raises, non-tenders, etc. according to Spotrac and Roster Resource from best I can tell
Even if they “only” spend the $240M, that will still be an advantage over many teams as we know.
It won’t be an advantage over contending teams. And that’s where the Mets are now.
“Won’t be an advantage over contending teams”…I beg to differ, because how often will you ever see contenders like the Brewers, Orioles, Twins, Dbacks, Guardians and Astros up near the $300M(or CBT tax range) range of salary? Most years you can add Tampa to that mix and we all know Tampa’s payroll history. There’s always been contenders that don’t want to break the bank.
mlb fan Correct. But I was not referring to the total payroll. The $140 million (or so) base is already built in and accounted for. I was referring to the $90 million the Mets would have left between that and the threshold. And there are other contenders who do have that kind of money to spend… Philly, St Louis, LA, Boston, the Yankees, and SF… Plus any surprise newcomers to the spending game (no one ever thought the Padres would play in the stratosphere that they reached these past few years). Toronto and Detroit have money that they often choose not to spend. But either of them can decide to jump into the fray if they think it puts them over the top.
“That was the first of a few notable injury scenarios for Manaea, who most notably missed nearly all of the 2019 season…”
Notably noted.
The Mets have over $100 mil coming off the books, I’d say reinvest it in Soto, C. Burnes, offer Severino and Manaea the QO. I would look into trading Marte and McNeil and replace them with Gilbert and Acuna, that reduces the payroll more to reinvest more into the bullpen. If they don’t resign Alonso, Vientos can play 1b, Acuna 2b, Lindor SS, Mauricio 3b, Gilbert LF, Nimmo CF, Soto in RF, Alvarez C. The rotation can be Burnes, Senga, Manaea, Severino and Scott,
@ jvent First the math: Soto and Burnes will cost a combined $80 million or so. Two QOs for Manaea and Sevy adds another $42 million. So you’re $20+ million over the cap. Marte (20 mil) and McNeil ($12 million) make only $10 million or so more than that combined, and you’re assuming that they can both be traded without the Mets eating some of their salaries. Even if they can, that leaves close to nothing to reinvest elsewhere and still stay under. And that still doesn’t account for arb raises.
Then you’re hoping without basis that Acuna, and Gilbert are ready and able to produce in the majors, when they’ve both posted mid-600’s OPS that are 100 points below that league’s average. And that Mauricio can come off a year-long injury and just jump in to the major league role when he had only five inconsistent weeks at that level.
So at the end of the day, the plan outlined weakens the team, leaves no room for filling holes, and probably till fails to stay under the main threshold.