What once seemed to be a promising season for the Twins is coming to a devastating end, as the club was officially eliminated from postseason contention last night after a free fall in the standings spurred on by their brutal 9-16 record so far this September. While Minnesota entered the month with a 91.7% chance to make the postseason according to Fangraphs, they’ll sit on the sidelines this October just one year after breaking a 20-year drought without a victory in the postseason.
With that being said, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic suggested in a report today that both president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli (as well as team president Dave St. Peter, who handles business operations for the club) appear unlikely to be let go by the club as things stand. Falvey took the helm of baseball operations for the Twins prior to the 2017 season, and the team has generally been successful during his tenure with four postseason appearances and five seasons with an above .500 record during his eight years with the club’s front office. Meanwhile, Baldelli joined the club prior to the 2019 season and has led the club to three postseason appearances and four over .500 records in his six years in the Minnesota dugout.
That’s not to say no change is coming to the organization, however. According to Gleeman, it’s “expected” that changes will be made this winter that could impact high-ranking members of both the front office and coaching staff. Of note, Gleeman did not report on the status of GM Thad Levine. Levine has served as the #2 to Falvey throughout his tenure with the Twins and seemingly entered the year without a contract for the 2025 season. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Levine depart the club if the Twins were to shake up their front office, particularly given the fact that Levine was a finalist for the top job in Boston last winter before the Red Sox ultimately hired Craig Breslow and could once again look to pursue a top job elsewhere this offseason.
Disappointing as the 2024 season was for Twins fans, it’s fair to point out that the club’s struggles can’t be blamed entirely on the front office or coaching staff. After all, club ownership slashed payroll by $30MM coming off the club’s successful 2023 season, not only forcing the club to enter 2024 without replacing 2023 AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray but also leaving them unable to make moves of significance to improve the roster beyond adding veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, a move that needed to be paired with a deal to ship out longtime infielder Jorge Polanco.
Unfortunately for fans in Minnesota, Gleeman suggests there’s little reason to believe payroll will increase headed into 2025. Instead, he notes that the club’s revenue has landed below expectations this year and could prompt even more cuts. That could leave the club needing to trade away veterans on guaranteed contracts over the winter in order to improve other areas of the roster, and Gleeman suggests that right-hander Chris Paddack and catcher Christian Vazquez could be the club’s most expendable pieces if such a situation were to come to pass.
Paddack, 28, returned to the club after Tommy John surgery wiped out nearly all of his 2023 season. He made 17 starts for the Twins this year but struggled with lackluster results, posting a 4.99 ERA despite a solid enough 4.18 FIP. It’s easy to see how Paddack could be an attractive trade piece for pitching-hungry clubs this winter, particularly those with budget constraints of their own. After all, he’s set to make just $7.5MM in 2025. Even back-of-the-rotation arms have typically garnered guarantees north of $10MM on the open market in recent years, so $7.5MM for Paddack could be viewed as a bargain even in spite of injury concerns thanks to the tantalizing upside he flashed during his time with the Padres.
Vazquez, on the other hand, appears unlikely to bring back much outside of salary relief for Minnesota. The 34-year-old veteran entered free agency following the 2022 season with a strong defensive reputation and a solid 95 wRC+ in four years since taking over as the primary catcher in Boston. Unfortunately, things haven’t worked out well since he signed with the Twins on a three-year deal prior to the 2023 season. In Minnesota, Vazquez has hit just .224/.267/.324 (64 wRC+) over the past two years while ceding the regular duties behind the plate to breakout youngster Ryan Jeffers. He still remains a stalwart defender behind the plate, but his lackluster offense and hefty $10MM salary for next year would make him unattractive as a trade candidate unless the Twins were to sweeten the deal with either cash or additional talent.
Well…..
They weren’t the ’64 Phillies, so all the people in charge can stay.
“Disappointing as the 2024 season was for Twins fans, it’s fair to point out that the club’s struggles can’t be blamed entirely on the front office or coaching staff. After all, club ownership slashed payroll by $30MM coming off the club’s successful 2023 season, not only forcing the club to enter 2024 without replacing 2023 AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray but also leaving them unable to make moves of significance to improve the roster beyond adding veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, a move that needed to be paired with a deal to ship out longtime infielder Jorge Polanco.”
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Stop it already.
Here’s a wild theory….
How about the FO has back-up plans and has young players they developed in the high minors that can come up and play? The answer to everything in MLBTR is for teams to spend, spend, and spend on FA’s. MLB doesn’t work like that. It’s not rotisserie league.
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“Falvey took the helm of baseball operations for the Twins prior to the 2017 season…”
Isn’t overseeing the farm system part of his domain? This is his 8th season with the franchise.
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They weren’t the only MLB team affected by the Bally situation. It’s hard for me to believe that there wasn’t some scuttlebutt going around about their financial situation. Heck, I’m a fan and I heard it might be a possibility long before it was announced.
Cleveland lost revenue too. How come they got better in 2024?
….and the Guardians lost ace pitcher Shane Bieber for the season due to injury in early April.
Cry me a river.
….and if the guardians make a run this postseason and ownership cuts $30M (or whatever relative figure that would be for the club) heading into next season, you’ll cry too. You’re acting like the Twins haven’t developed any of their core and have spent FA dollars like drunken sailors.
Did Samuel just reply to himself?
Slage8;
Oh please……
Can you read?
–They lost one pitcher and needed to make: “moves of significance to improve the roster.” —
So? This is MLBTR making excuses and you’re buying it.
Name me a MLB franchise in the offseason that hasn’t been faced with this. It’s normal. A competent FO knows this is reality and plans for it. And they do that by having players (with an “s”) in the high minors that can come in and be productive in some way with the parent team.
Maybe the Twins ought to develop some pitchers that play cheap so they don’t have to trade for some developed by other teams, and then give them large contracts.
The Twins 2024 payroll was higher than the following teams, of whom all made the playoffs but the Rays:
Royals
Brewers
Tigers
Rays
Orioles
Guardians
“How about the FO has back-up plans and has young players they developed in the high minors that can come up and play?”
The reason MLBTR focuses on spending is because it fixes immediate holes. You talk like a competent team should have a second MLB ready team in AAA, which isn’t even remotely feasible. Yes, we all hope we have a ridiculously stacked team that is prepared for any eventuality.
Well, this time last year, the Orioles had a AAA team of Holliday, Mayo, Cowser, Ortiz, Kjerstad, Norby, Stowers,Povich, McDermott, DL Hall and others. They had a much lower opening day payroll than the Twins and unless they sign a bunch of FAs they will have a lower payroll next year.
Maybe the Twins problem is trading Steer, Povich, Cano, and others for garbage, not their payroll.
“You talk like a competent team should have a second MLB ready team in AAA,”
8======D (Carl Winslow);
I didn’t write that at all.
“Young players they developed…MLB doesn’t work like that..8th season with the franchise”…You raise many valid, interesting points.
Unless teams draft and develop well, spending big in free agency will generally yield few results and in many cases actually pushes teams backwards with bad contracts.
You do have to wonder why Cleveland(and most years Tampa)can always figure it out and make it work, but the Minnesota Twins seemingly cannot.
Slashing even more payroll? I feel so bad for twins fans right now
Owners being cheap again and I don’t even know if they are honest if the team is actually taking a loss or not
Its not being cheap. Its called a budget. Its something grownups and businesses have to deal with. When you’re older, you’ll understand.
Unless those grownups are in government.
Reds need to go get Rocco !
Develop better pitchers and don’t draft toolsy players with major flaws in their swing.
Baldelli did not perform well in my opinion. Predictable managing. Relied way too much on righty lefty matchup building. Never started a left handed hitter against a lefty starter, cost them many games. Practically no one on the team had a fulltime role. I hope he learns his lesson.
Except for lefties Larnach, Julien, Kirilloff, Kepler, and Wallner. 4 of which are currently on IL which makes starting them problematic.
Overplatoonong is a losing strategy. Ask the Giants.
Agree! He did it all year, poor Max Kepler barely played and he was finally healthy!
They shoud trade buxton for pitching
Yeah he will get a MLB reliever and a Class A Catcher in return. He has all the potential in the world. But it doesn’t matter when he manages to play 75 games a year. Yes he is aggressive in the field. But if you can’t stay healthy then so what.
Buxton has a full no-trade clause.
Sounds like they’ll be dumpster diving.
Lots a blame to go around for the whole organization. Ownership on down to players. A few things I’ve noticed this year and in the past few years.
We have been dreadful with runners in scoring position. Our third base coach has caused several outs with his over aggressive sending home of players. And I know this is a “back in my day” take, but the twins don’t steal enough bases and play enough small ball. And yes, I’m aware that most of the league doesn’t bunt much. It is slowly becoming part of the game again.
It was Santana that was caught off second on the bunt double play, and then got caught between 2nd and third the very next day. It was also Santana in Pittsburgh that wasn’t doing his on deck duties, failing to tell O’Neill Cruz to slide, when he broke his leg. For a veteran player, he sure seems to come up short in knowing how to play the game.
“Weird ass Minnesota Twins” — C.C. Sabathia
Cc is the best. Love his podcast!
Agreed, top to bottom FO/GM/players and situational hitting and base running needs improvement. Can’t blame it all on payroll.
I’ve also noticed things like when they send a MLB player down to AAA that the player should improve on their flaws before coming back to MLB (ex Julien and other prospects need to be able to hit against LH pitching, fielding miscues, etc). Not sure if that is on the player or coaching/lack of development. Their batting lineup is never consistent which I think makes it tougher for the younger guys to make adjustments. They get mixed up on what their approach is for hitting that their only approach is to swing for the fences. I didn’t look at the current totals but it does seem that their batters are striking out a lot less than previous years, so that was a plus I guess. Or maybe it was just because they got rid of a couple K prone batters (gallo comes to mind).
Very frustrating after the highs of last year and the start of this season, but honestly not surprised they didn’t make the playoffs with how well the royals, Cleveland, and tigers saw the twins lack of urgency that they were more willing to spend on a few pieces that worked out for them. Happy for the AL central teams that made it.
Haven’t seen a team collapse just getting swept under the rug quite like this from a coaching standpoint.
Yanks gonna miss ya maybe 2025 if Buxton can play 100 again, Royce can not get injured on opening day and they can figure out modern base running
Come on, Deeds. “Disappointing as the 2024 season was for Twins fans” is not proper English. You can’t just leave “as” out at the beginning of the sentence because you feel like it. It’s not optional, just like correct grammar is not optional for someone being paid to write about baseball.