Grayson Rodriguez Will Not Return In 2024

The Orioles are shutting down Grayson Rodriguez for the season, manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (X link via Jake Rill of MLB.com). While Rodriguez didn’t have any kind of setback, the team doesn’t feel there’s sufficient time for him to return from the injured list.

Losing the right-hander is a devastating blow for the Orioles rotation with the postseason set to begin next week. It would require a miracle for the Orioles to run down the Yankees for the AL East crown (and accompanying bye through the Wild Card Series) at this point, and failing that the club will have to determine whether to turn to right-hander Dean Kremer or journeyman Albert Suarez to round out the club’s rotation for the series behind Corbin Burnes and Zach Eflin, while likely using both in the ALDS and beyond should they manage to make a deeper run.

Both hurlers have been solid mid-to-back of the rotation starters for the Orioles this year but aren’t the sort of reliable arms teams prefer to lean on in a playoff series. Kremer has made 24 starts for Baltimore this year to slightly below average results, with a 4.10 ERA (92 ERA+) and 4.32 FIP in 129 2/3 innings of work, while Suarez sports a 3.74 ERA (100 ERA+) and 4.12 FIP in 127 2/3 innings of work split between the bullpen and rotation. Of the pair, Kremer is perhaps the more reliable choice given his stronger results of late (he’s pitched to a 3.95 ERA and 3.55 FIP since the start of August) that compare favorably to Suarez’s ugly 7.23 ERA in four September starts that have seen him surrender a whopping seven homers.

Baltimore’s front office attempted to shore up the rotation in response to injuries suffered by the pitching staff throughout the year at the trade deadline, and while the addition of Eflin to the mix has proved invaluable down the stretch the same cannot be said for their decision to add Trevor Rogers to their rotation mix. The Orioles surrendered well-regarded youngsters Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers in exchange for Rogers’s services back in July, but the lefty made four disastrous starts for the club (7.11 ERA, 5.01 FIP) before being optioned to the minors where he continued to struggle badly down the stretch.

Regardless of how Kremer, Suarez, and other rotation options like Rogers and Cade Povich (5.59 ERA in 15 starts) are deployed by Hyde during the postseason, none of those options seem likely to be as reliable as Rodriguez. In 116 2/3 innings of work before being sidelined by a lat injury back in August, Rodriguez pitched to a 3.86 ERA with a stronger 3.66 FIP across 20 starts while striking out a solid 26.5% of opponents in his second season as a member of the Orioles rotation this year. That strikeout rate is good for 23rd in the majors among starters with at least 100 innings of work this year, in line with likely playoff starters for other clubs such as Tanner Bibee of the Guardians and Carlos Rodon of the Yankees.

Fortunately, Hyde’s comments offer little reason to fear for Rodriguez’s ability to return healthy and effective next season. While Burnes is slated to hit free agency this November, Rodriguez figures to be joined by Eflin as the club’s top internal options next year, with ace Kyle Bradish and righty Tyler Wells both potentially in the mix to return to action in the second half of 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery back in June. Even with Rodriguez likely to be healthy entering next season, however, bolstering the rotation figures to be a priority for the Orioles this winter as they look to support their vaunted offensive core. That could mean pursuing a reunion with Burnes, or perhaps signing a second-tier arm expected to be available this winter such as Nathan Eovaldi or Sean Manaea.