Cody Bellinger has one of the more significant opt-out decisions of the offseason. The Cubs center fielder/first baseman needs to decide whether to bypass the remaining two years and $50MM on the three-year, $80MM contract he signed late last winter. If he foregoes this year’s opt-out, he’d have another out clause during the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20MM left on the deal).
Last weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that Bellinger was “fully expected” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t seem to be set in stone, however. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported this evening that Bellinger has yet to decide whether he’ll test the market.
Bellinger is wrapping up a solid if slightly disappointing year. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 home runs over 545 plate appearances. He has essentially maintained the career-best pure contact ability that he showed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his trips this year, marginally higher than the 15.6% strikeout rate he managed during his first season on the North Side.
The downturn has been in his power output. Bellinger had eight more home runs and 13 additional extra-base hits a year ago. He has another week to add to this season’s totals but isn’t going to make up that much ground. His slugging percentage is down more than .090 points from last year’s excellent .525 mark. The sustainability of last year’s power production was always the biggest question. Bellinger got to his impressive 2023 output despite a below-average 31.4% hard contact rate and 87.9 MPH average exit velocity. This year’s batted ball metrics are similarly middling and the results have indeed regressed.
There’s nevertheless still a lot to like in the profile. Bellinger has proven to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s another season removed from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him before his final arbitration year. It’s safe to say that his 47-homer MVP form isn’t coming back, but Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s still capable of playing center field, although the Cubs have used him increasingly in right field and at first base.
Bellinger has graded as an average defender in a little more than 400 center field innings. He has posted similar marks in more than 350 innings in right. The Cubs’ best outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in center. Another team could give Bellinger more consistent reps up the middle for at least a season or two.
The two-time All-Star remains one of the younger possible free agents in the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s more than a year younger than Harrison Bader, who’d probably be the top center fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s nearly a year younger than Anthony Santander and about the same age as Tyler O’Neill. While there’s a decent amount of corner outfield talent — headlined, of course, by Juan Soto — the center field class is not strong. Bellinger declined a qualifying offer last winter and is no longer eligible to receive one, so there’d be no draft pick forfeiture this time around.
That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and decent all-around production, he’d have a decent argument for a four- or even five-year deal. If he simply wanted to maximize the guarantee, he shouldn’t have an issue beating the $50MM remaining on his current contract. That’d require taking a paycut next season though. Bellinger wouldn’t match next year’s $27.5MM salary on an annual basis over four or five years.
If Bellinger and his camp at the Boras Corporation expect his power to rebound, bypassing the opt-out would be the likely decision. He’d have another chance to retest the market in advance of his age-30 campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago may require playing right field for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, though, potentially raising questions among other teams about his long-term viability in center field.
From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would probably be the better outcome. That’d enable them to play Seiya Suzuki more frequently in right field instead of limiting him to designated hitter — where he’d need to play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s strong year lessens the need to have Bellinger around as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation.
How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out?
mrkinsm
He’ll opt out next winter – Nov 2025.
FSF
Doubt it. Only because I don’t see him being a premier player ever again.
YankeesBleacherCreature
He doesn’t need to be one and will easily top in free agency the remaining on his Cubs deal.
Alan53
Definitely will opt out–and let’s hope the Cubs don’t let him stall their off-season the way they did last year. They should bid him goodbye and wish him good luck.
rememberthecoop
Yes, but not his AAV. Nobody is going to give Belli $27.5 per year unless his power rebounds. But in his MVP season, he knew what pitches were coming, so I’m sure that helped him have such a monster year.
mrkinsm
@FSF, what do you doubt? If he stays for 2 years he gets paid 52.5M$ over those 2 years. If he only stays 1 more year and opts out he gets paid 32.5M$ including the final buyout. If he leaves now he only gets 7.5M$ in buyouts. If he wants to maximize his worth and believes he’ll stay healthy next year then he should stay 1 more season and then opt out.
FSF
I’m saying there may very well be doubt that he even gets a $20M contract after next year total and a lot of doubt that he gets that kind of AAV (certainly beyond a couple of years). Now if he rebounds, that changes things in his favor but after this year’s showing, last year being nothing spectacular by any means, his reputation will not be one of being a reliable star level player, let alone the superstar expectations that he had for so long that never manifested with any length.
mrkinsm
115 OPS+ at age 29 still equates to a lot of money as a FA. I don’t think he’ll have any problem getting a 1 year 20M$ deal 12 months from now, even if he produces like he did this year. 20M$ buys a lot less than it once did.
FSF
I agree if he produces a replicate of this season next year that $20M deal at 1 year would be reasonable. I just have doubts that he can maintain this level and he’s already got that deal no matter how he plays. I don’t see any team giving him $50M+ for even 4+ years for doing this again.
DarrenDreifortsContract
Why? He didn’t prove anything this season. He’s a good player when healthy but nothing special.
Thank god the Dodgers never gave him a big extension.
outinleftfield
Bob Nightengale is saying he won’t, so he absolutely will.
Ezpkns34
Still remember the MLBTR prediction of him landing a quarter billion dollar deal last offseason so I hope he opts out so we can get another good laugh in the FA predictions
FSF
Sadly I think it was like $280-288M??? This site is definitely on the Boras payroll.
Alan53
His ego will make him opt out.And Boras’s.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
I thought belly (at least) was considered an elite defender, I guess it was just fox pregame trying to hype the fans up
leftcoaster
He needs to go to free up a spot for Caissie and Alcantara.
mrkinsm
Not that I’m defending the Cubbies, I’m sadly a Reds fan, but Bellinger isn’t the reason they’re going to miss the playoffs. Their 5th starting spot posted a 6 ERA every 5th day, they got no production from 3B, and they had a mediocre bullpen. Losing Bellinger’s production won’t be easy to replace if he leaves, even if it shaves some $ off the bottom line.
beersy
He’d be a fool to give up a guaranteed $50M.
Don’t let Boras talk you into “waiting out the market” Cody.