For much of the season Shohei Ohtani has been the presumptive National League MVP favorite. Maybe that wasn't the case on Opening Day, but an injury to teammate Mookie Betts early in the summer and an injury to D-backs star infielder Ketel Marte cleared his path. The Ohtani hype is understandable. He's been the National League's best hitter this year by many measures, pacing the Senior Circuit in slugging percentage (.613) and wRC+ (167). Ohtani is fifth in the NL in batting average, fourth in OBP, first in homers and runs scored and second in runs batted in. He's also swiped 46 bags and is a veritable lock to have a 45-45 season, with a chance at becoming MLB's first ever 50-homer, 50-steal player in a season.
Lately, there's been a push by Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor to tighten the race, however. Dating back to July 1, Lindor boasts a sensational .310/.384/.587 slash. He's in the midst of a torrid 15-game hitting streak, which he started just one game after seeing a 12-game hitting streak end. Since the beginning of July, Lindor has more than twice as many multi-hit games (22) than he does hitless games (10). Defensive metrics are a bit split on him this year, with Defensive Runs Saved curiously pegging him as average while Statcast grades him as one of the best defensive players in the entire game. Regardless, Lindor and his .274/.343/.501 batting line (plus 30 homers and 26 steals) lead the NL in both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference WAR.
It's not quite fair to the rest of the field to call this a pure two-horse race, though Lindor and Ohtani are certainly the favorites at the moment. Cincinnati standout Elly De La Cruz could thrust himself further into the conversation with a big finish, but many voters will be turned off by the fact that however excellent his season has been -- and it's been excellent -- it's happened as a member of a non-contending Reds club.
There's still one other viable MVP candidate who's not getting the love, and who probably won't get the love -- but absolutely should.
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Tomorrow will feature the other, other, other MVP candidates.
For purposes of regular season MVP, it’s pointless to focus on July 1st onward. The award is based on the entire regular season, not just the second half.
And Elly being on a non-contender is completely meaningless.
Most Value Player means the player that has done the most for their team, period.
If Elly lets say hypothetically turned a 65-win team into a 75-win team, he would be more valuable than Ohtani who lets say hypothetically turned a 93-win team into a 100-team win.
All that matters is how much impact the player had on their team, regardless of how many wins the team finishes with.
The metric I always like to use when comparing the “value” of players on teams from contending and non-contending teams:
Trade the players. Put Ohtani on the Reds and Elly on the Dodgers.
Would the Dodgers be better or worse? Would the Reds be better or worse?
That’ll tell you who’s more valuable.
So if you play on a sucky team your stats count for more.? All we have to do is wait for the White Sox to get say 65 wins next year and pick a guy that was played well for them and then those 30 extra wins are all because of him and therefore he’s the MVP?
Flawed…
Empire – How you came to that erroneous assumption is beyond me, thankfully.
It’s really simple: Number of wins with the MVP candidate vs Number of wins without. The larger jump in wins should be the MVP.
Disqualifying a player because his surrounding teammates suck is absurd.
Elly plays for a sucky team, how was it such a mental stretch for you to make the connection? Thankfully, your flawed logic is NOT the prevailing practice in choosing an MVP.
empire – If you study the history of MLB MVP winners, you’d know it is indeed the logic.
1987 Andre Dawson 76-85
1991 Cal Ripken 67-95
1958 Ernie Banks 72-82
1959 Ernie Banks 74-80
1952 Hank Sauer 77-77
1989 Robin Yount 81-81
2003 Alex Rodriguez 71-91
None of those guys were on winning teams, yet they ALL won the MVP.
Go figure.
Sale has been the best Pitcher in the NL by a fairly wide margin…
Paul Skenes would like a word.
Only thing keeping Skenes from winning the Cy Young this year is the organization he plays for.
Love Chris Sale, but he doesn’t fly in Skenes stratosphere. Case in point, Skenes threw 5 shutout innings in his last start when he lacked command of his 3 best pitches.
I don’t know if I agree about that… when sale is healthy he and degrom are the best pitchers in the world…
Sale has made 7 more starts than Skenes. That matters. And their stats are very similar on a rate basis.
I think Sale will get the cy young as he was amazing in his career than injuries destroyed his career and he came back as good as ever.
I didn’t know what to make of the trade for him. It’s been amazing
As for Skenes if he is good like he looks his time will
Come
Scott – The fact Sale has pitched 41% more innings is what’s keeping Skenes from winning the Cy. He doesn’t even have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title so what makes you think he deserves Cy more than Sale?
I’m gonna say what Bravos fans claimed last year, if you accomplish 40/40 (50/50 in Shohei’s case), that means you’re the MVP. Nothing else matters.
Not even defense?!?!?!
Yeah it’s tricky because he doesn’t play the field at all. I don’t know. Has a DH ever won MVP?
Ohtani would be the first, though I’d guess there were a couple defensive liability RF/1B that have probably got the award.
40/40 isn’t nearly as prestigious as it used to be, considering all the rule changes that made stolen bases far easier.
“Isn’t nearly as prestigious”…I mostly agree, but that’s why if Ohtani goes 50/50 he’s a lock for MVP. Obviously Lindor is showing out and showing the MLB nation the exceptional kind of two way player that he is.
I wouldn’t actually be against a co-MVP type situation(especially if Mets make the playoffs)because defense does matter and Lindor plays a great(premium position) shortstop.
The stolen base is a lost art in this game.
“The stolen base is a lost art in this game.”
This just in: It’s been found again.
Rickey Henderson, Roc Raines, and Vince Coleman say hello. Baseball has become adverse to the SB.
2006 Alfonso Soriano?
No matter how often it is used incorrectly, the word hype still means exaggeration. So what part of Ohtani’s performance is being exaggerated?
It’s not exaggeration but it’s fair to wonder if he deserves the MVP as a DH. He got extra credit for pitching and hitting both which is totally fair but if that’s fair shouldn’t being a DH only player ne held against him? He still might deserve it but that is the question.
Fair enough but this wasn’t my point. Some words get used just because they sound cool no matter what they really mean.
Hype doesn’t necessarily mean exaggerated. It refers more to just being excessively promoted. There are plenty of things that fully justify the hype that surrounds them. Like Ohtani for example.
Excessive or extravagant, meaning more than necessary, unrestrained. Short form of hyperbole, meaning exaggerated statements or claims. In effect, inaccurate. To say “the hype is understandable” is essentially an oxymoron. This says the claims aren’t excessive, extravagant, or exaggerated, that they are well founded. So what is really meant here is the interest or attention is understandable.
If Chris sale wins mvp this year he’s going to the HOF
Sale is cy young winner not the mvp
I feel like he’s pretty easily going in regardless. He’s probably a top 3 pitcher of this generation.
With all the talent on the Dodgers… I’m curious who will knock them out of the playoffs. You know they won’t win it all. Who knocks them out this year?
Follow this guy he’s the one who really knows!
No mention of Matt Chapman?
Ozuna or sale for mvp
No way does Ozuna take mvp over Ohtani. I like Sale for the Cy Young, but you really need something closer to Kershaw circa 2014 for a pitcher who’s not a two-way player to take mvp honors.
Ozuna isn’t liked enough and hasn’t had such a crazy season as to make people over look him being a designated hitter.
Ozuna’s past off the field troubles also kill his chances and his earnings
“Sale for mvp”…Sale should take home CY Young hardware(Skenes #2), but not MVP, which is going to a historic 50/50 Ohtani. I can easily see Ozuna in the MVP top 3 or 4, which is in itself a very great honor.
I just looked a few things up, and there is something important to understand about the WAR stat.
Firstly, WAR is skewed by position. A SS will get a higher grade for offense even if they produce less offense, because SS is more valuable defensive position. So if a 1B or DH has the same offensis stats as a SS, the SS will have the higher WAR.
Somehow, a DH, who has not played a single defensive inning at all, has a negative D-war on Baseball reference. It should be zero.
And as of this posting, Baseball Reference has Ohtani at a 7 WAR, and Lindor at a 6.3.
Ohtani’s numbers are across the board better than Lindor’s. The only argument could be is how much Lindor’s defense factors in over a DH.
AE86;
I don’t believe any MLB award should be based on statistics.
We can argue 24 hours a day pulling out this one and that one.
Individual stats can make any player look very good or so-so.
So how would you determine the MVP?
The Cy Young?
The Batting Champion?
The HR Champion?
The RBI Champion?
Baseball is based all on stats.
By determining which player has been most valuable to his team winning dames (can even be a team that finished in last place).
No stat shows that. People have to watch the games. Which is why the people that are voters watch the games for a living.
“…winning dames…” So the guy that pulls the most chicks for his team is the MVP? That’s a bold statement.
No stat shows who won the game? How about the score? If you have a guy that is leaps and bounds better than the rest of the league, he is the MVP.
Cal Ripken Jr. won it in his crazy early 90’s season even though the Orioles were horrible, because he was the best player in baseball that season. If it was based on wins, then he would have never won the award. How many wins can a player help a team win if they are in last place and win about 65 games? Then you have another guy going off on a 100+ win team.
Ohtani is by far the MVP right now.
For pitchers, I don’t understand the confusion about how big of an impact they have. We have the stats readily available – batters faced. So far Chris Sale has faced 635 batters, and had a direct impact on the outcome of those at bats. Ohtani has 630 plate appearances, and had a direct impact on the outcome of those at bats. Then you can even throw in fielding chances, etc. Nothing complicated here.
Elly DLC has 27 errors this year.
Give Sale the Cy Young and move on.
It’s Ohtani and Lindor at this point.
Cruz is not close to those two. Be serious.
Another clickbait puff piece paid for by an agent. This is a transactions site. Stay in your lane and stop trying to be Fangraphs.