As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Cole chasing #150 amid struggles:
When veteran right-hander Gerrit Cole takes at Yankee Stadium this afternoon, he’ll do so in search of the 150th win of his career. Should he earn the win for tonight’s game, he’ll become just the fourth active big leaguer to reach the milestone, joining Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer. He’s scheduled to take on the Guardians and youngster Gavin Williams (5.02 ERA) at 1:05pm local time this afternoon in his next bid to make that trio a quartet.
It would be a welcome source of positivity in the midst of what has been a very difficult season for Cole. The 33-year-old missed the first ten weeks of the season due to an elbow injury and hasn’t looked like the dominant ace who won the AL Cy Young award last season in ten starts since returning. Over 52 innings of work, Cole has a pedestrian 4.15 ERA with a 4.20 FIP to match. While his 26.8% remains excellent, the righty’s 7.1% walk rate is a tick higher than normal and he’s struggled badly in terms of keeping the ball in the park, with nine home runs allowed already this season.
2. Series Preview: Astros @ Orioles
In what could prove to be a preview of a playoff series, the Astros are set to visit the Orioles for a three-game set that starts today. The set begins amid what has been a difficult month of August in Baltimore, as the club has won just one series so far this month with a 9-10 record over that time. Those struggles have allowed the Yankees to reclaim a half-game lead in the AL East race, leaving the Orioles to enter the upcoming series with an eye toward regaining the momentum that previously propelled them to run down New York earlier this year.
Meanwhile, the Astros are on the upswing in recent weeks with a 12-6 record since the calendar flipped to August and a solid five-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West. A series win against Baltimore could not only help Houston pad its division lead but help them as they look to move further up the overall standings to secure a top-2 record in the AL and the accompanying bye through the Wild Card Series. The Astros will send right-hander Spencer Arrighetti (5.20 ERA) to the mound tonight opposite Baltimore ace Corbin Burnes (3.10 ERA), though the club has not yet announced who will take the ball opposite youngster Cade Povich (5.77 ERA) tomorrow or journeyman Albert Suarez (3.18 ERA) on Saturday.
3. deGrom to begin rehab assignment:
Jacob deGrom hasn’t pitched in an official game since last May, but that’s expected to change tonight with the start of his rehab assignment at Double-A. While Rangers manager Bruce Bochy didn’t commit to a specific day for deGrom’s rehab to begin, deGrom himself indicated that he expected to take the ball today. Whether he ultimately begins his rehab today or tomorrow, it’s surely a huge relief for the 36-year-old to be returning to the mound over a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
The Rangers’ postseason hopes are all but snuffed out at this late point in the schedule, but even so it will surely provide a huge boost to the club heading into 2025 if deGrom can return healthy and effective before season’s end. Often considered to be perhaps the best pitcher in the sport when healthy, the right-hander sports an incredible 2.08 ERA and 2.11 FIP dating all the way back to the 2018 season, when he won the first of two back-to-back NL Cy Young awards with the Mets. deGrom has struggled to stay on the field in recent years, with just 186 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2021 season, but he’s been as dominant as ever in those limited innings with a 2.03 ERA and a mind-boggling 1.59 FIP in 32 starts.
Cole is a terrific pitcher, probably just going through a rough patch, now performing as a 3/4. The problem (for any team, even one as rich as the Yankees) is that it’s hard to pay that much money for a 3/4. Elbow injuries are scary. So, this rolls into his opt-out decision, If this is his level for the rest of the year, does he exercise the opt-out to induce the Yankees to void it by adding an additional year at $36M? The risk for him is they let him go. The risk for them….is that he leaves and returns to ace-level
IMO If Cole opts out I would let him walk. That elbow scares me and it’s a time bomb for TJ surgery. At his age he’s not worth more per year annually. He would be crazy to opt out. Does he still make the Hall of Fame with less than 300 wins?
mlb – 300 wins is no longer a benchmark or even achievable after Verlander retires. No other active player has a chance.
I do believe Cole is on track for the HOF based on his ERA, WHIP and 7 Top-9 Cy finishes.
Floyd Youmans has more career shutouts (6) than Cole or Scherzer.
Ryan, Seaver, Carlton, Sutton, Blyleven, Palmer, all had more than 50 career shutouts.
Kershaw leads active players with just 15, Verlander second with just 9.
Pitchers once had a job of getting guys out 3-4 times in a game and the greats mastered not showing the full arsenal in any given at bat, changing speeds and locations, outsmarting hitters. 200-300 plus inning pitchers were a norm.
Now the job is to throw 100 pitches or less per outing, face batters 2 times, get through 5.
300 will probably not be attainable unless the game changes.
Wins are just a counting stat, teams win games, not pitchers or managers, but those guys who threw 150 plus complete games, 50 plus shutouts, they were special, and every W next to their name in a Boxscore was, at least a tip of the cap to their performance on the field.
“teams win games, not pitchers or managers, ”
100
Fever: With all of the injuries happening to pitchers in the last few years, I don’t see anyone in the distant future winning 300 games.
Yoshis: Very good points. I don’t understand why managers are so married to pitch counts and their fear of letting a pitcher go through a lineup three times. When Cease pitched his no-hitter, he had to beg Melvin to let him stay in the game. He has no problem going over 100 pitches. Skenes would’ve had at least two no-hitter s if they had kept him in the game.
avenger:
“Skenes would’ve had at least two no-hitter s if they had kept him in the game.”
False
He would have given up an 8th inning two run jack vs the Cubs
And a 9th inning two-out infield single against the Brewers
How do I know? The same way that you think you know he wouldn’t have given up a hit
avenger – It’s just another example of the overall softening of players. Back in the day when men were men, they became great players by being pushed to greatness. They built up stamina in their younger days by staying in the game even when their 3rd time through the lineup numbers weren’t that great. They learned how to retire hitters without throwing their hardest and by leaving something in the tank for later innings.
Some of today’s players are still men though, perfect example being Houck. Last year there were morons here who repeatedly said “Houck will never make it as a starting pitcher because he’s got a .937 OPS Against when he faces hitters a third time.”
Well guess what? This year his OPS Against for third time facing hitters is down to .713!! Why? Because he persevered, he pushed himself.
Teams need to stop softening players and stop pushing the max velocity on every pitch mentality. And limiting pitches has done nothing to help protect pitchers, there’s far more injuries now than back in the day. It’s a classic case of misusing data because of a lack of intelligence.
That’s a clown comment bro learn about the game start with jack morris world series game 7
@FPG I’ll make the argument that pitchers today lack longevity bc hitters today are also better. With tech, hitters, in an instant, can break down an entire previous at-bat from the same game and make adjustments. If the data shows that facing a hitter for the third time through means less success, wouldn’t it be better to pull the starting pitcher to try win the game? It has nothing to do with being “soft” bc it’s out of a pitcher’s control as the game isn’t managed like the old way anymore. Teams today are trying to take advantage of every perceived edge that they can get.
Cole is on track to cooperstown, not there yet
A WS ring would help, but a few more all star seasons and cy young votes would solidify his case
I feel like he’s right behind Chris sale who is also pretty close
I think if Kershaw had managed to pitch a bit more over the last 3-4 years he could’ve had a better chance of getting to 300 than Verlander.
Still it wouldn’t be surprising to have a Kershaw pitching 5-6 years and making his way to 300 but it’s really hard to imagine.
Cole has a fair shot at 200+ wins and one more Cy Young would put him on the first ballot category
Pitchers definitely win games. Big difference between a dominant starter and not. Foolish too think otherwise.
He’s ahead of Chris Sale.
MLBNYF
Almost nobody is looking at wins except wins above replacement
Nor are they looking at ERA or WHIP, LOL.
@dodgersbro
Strikeouts are no more important than any other out, FIP watching could encourage the “max velocity” and “max spin rate” mentality. If the Pitcher knows he has Ozzie at SS why not pitch to ground ball contact? Isn’t that skill just as important? Get outs before they score runs….doesnt matter how you get the outs
ERA+ is a little misleading as well. If a pitcher knows the ballpark and puts pitches in places to induce 400 foot flys that get caught in front of the 405 sign, does it matter if right field has a short porch?
What stats do you think are being most used to evaluate pitchers?
Kid you need to learn war is an estimate while the other stats you mentioned are actual results only a damn fool would judge players only on estimates instead of results
YJ
“Strikeouts are no more important than any other out, ”
1) False. What? Venn Diagram: people who say “just make contact” and people who think strikeouts aren’t better than putting a ball into play. Runners are much less likely to advance on a K than a batted ball
2) you’re comparing the wrong things – you’re comparing results not process. Batters almost never reach base on a strikeout. Batters are much more likely to reach on a batted ball – even if Ozzie is playing SS.
“ERA+ is a little misleading as well.”
ERA is terrible. Never use it – in any form.
“If a pitcher knows the ballpark and puts pitches in places to induce 400 foot flys that get caught in front of the 405 sign, ”
Pitchers can’t do that. Not nearly as reliably as you’re pretending here.
Mi casa
What stats are results and not estimates, there grandpappy?
I’ll warn you, this is a set up. So, tread carefully so you don’t get embarrassed
Almost nobody is looking at wins
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No one? It is still pretty rare to have an SP make the HOF without 200 wins. In the past 50 years, I think only Koufax is the only elected with less than 200 wins. So they do look at wins.
JB
It’s pretty rare for a batter to make the HOF without 1000 K’s.
So, they look at batter K’s to elect hitters.
Your logic doesn’t make sense
He’s just a kid trying to get attention wins do have some value
Clown question bro you should pay attention to tollfree he can teach you a lot
Mikenmn: He’s wanted to be a Yankee since he was a kid. I don’t see him opting out. The Yankees should sign him year-to-year though so they don’t get mired in a Scherzer/Verlander situation in case Cole is on the decline.
avenger
“The Yankees should sign him year-to-year”
Unlikely Cole wants to be a Yankee THAT badly.
He also has some obligation to the MLBPA to sign a bigger contract
If Cole opts out the Yankees can keep him by extending his contract 2 years. So it’s doubtful Cole becomes a free agent. Can’t see the Yankees letting him walk
geotheo it’s one year, not two.
I wouldn’t be surprised in Boras initiates talks with the Yankees before the opt out decision has to be made to determine willingness. He’s in charge right now–it’s his opt-out. The moment he exercises it, he give the Yankees some power
300 wins is a mirage. It’ll never be seen again. And past Verlander, I doubt we will see 250 wins again.
This. Verlander still has an outside shot (260) if he’s able to pitch at least 3 or 4 more seasons. He may do it knowing that he could very well be the last player to do it in what should be a long time if not ever
If he opts out, teams might be hesitant to give him a long term contract, unless it’s on a year to year bases? Look at DeGrom and Sherzer, Verlander? It’s a risky composition, but that’s the chance you take with todays pitchers..
I wish Cole luck, he is a champion of the game. Wish he was still with the Astros.
Have you ever had an expensive medical emergency, lost a job because you were in the hospital, got in a car wreck, and financed the next car with a 500something credit score so you could get to/from the lower paying replacement job? And the loan was eye-wateringly underwater the entire time until it was paid off, and compounded by more expensive auto insurance?
That’s what Jacob deGrom’s contract is like. Yikes
Jacob who?
TeePee
“That’s what Jacob deGrom’s contract is like”
Except you are a millionaire and none of that really matters
THAT’S what DeGrom’s contract looks like.
If it didn’t matter to degrom then why didn’t he sign for the veterans minimum to stay on the Mets?
Athletes don’t take less money, I wonder why lebron James hasn’t helped his team out significantly yet
Cole has only allowed 3 runs in 18 innings across his last 3 starts. A pair of ugly starts against the Mets make his overall numbers look pedestrian but he’s rounding back into form. Considering his injury and lack of spring training, I’d say he’s doing just fine
Ronk
Speaking of… Everyone noticed how great Snell has looked?
The Boras and Snell haters are pretty quiet
Yeah he’s been the best pitcher in the league over the past month or so. I wanted the Yankees to make sign him last offseason but they pivoted to Stroman instead. I really don’t understand why so many people hate him
The Boras and Snell haters are pretty quiet
=========================
Snell has a 1.1 bWAR for the season for $32M.
That is more of a byproduct of the fact that Snell’s early season was basically his spring training and now he is in regular season form. If Snell had pitched like this since day one the Giants would be a legit contender. Nothing to do with “haters” and everything to do with facts
RSox
“facts”
What are the facts?
That Snell wasn’t game ready when the Giants brought him up early in the season and now he looks like his former self. The lesson is spring training is important
Rs
Ok?
How is that fact relevant?
DodgersBro
What are the facts?
========================
I gave you the facts. He has a 1.1 bWAR for $32M. The fact that he’s been extraordinary for 7 starts doesn’t mean his previous 7 bad starts don’t count.
There is a reason why he has only won two games this year (besides bad support).
JB
“I gave you the facts”
I was clearly asking RSox.
Thx
Also, pitchers don’t win games.
Then why did your Dodgers spend like half a billion on pitchers God your clueless
That’s not entirely true. There were many games when Madison Bumgarner or Clayton Kershaw (and lots of other over the decades) had to supply their own offense to win games
Mi casas
“Then why did your Dodgers spend like half a billion on pitchers”
Do you… Do you honestly think like this? If pitchers win games why do teams spend money on hitters
Answer me that
He acknowledged that and said that under normal circumstances, like a full spring training, he’s not as likely to have struggled that much. And it’s a fair assumption to make. Yes, we know what Baseball Reference says. But let’s allow ourselves to think hypothetically for just one second.
RZ
“not as likely ”
Meaning, he still might have struggled
Meaning, his struggles can’t be completely blamed on missing spring training
Also, people are sometimes wrong about stuff. Even if he said that missing spring was 100% the reason for the struggles, and he didn’t say that, he still might have been wrong
Let’s allow ourselves to think logically for a few seconds
Listen Ezra if pitcher don’t give up any runs his team can’t lose they are like a football goalie they have the biggest impact research jack Morris game 7 to start
Mi casas
And if the team can’t score, they can’t win. So, how can a pitcher win a game?
Seems like Danny Gladden and Gene Larkin had a lot to do with winning that game?
Care to explain to me why you don’t think so?
One pitcher facing 9+ batters that’s why only pitchers are awarded wins care to explain to me why you didn’t know that ezra
Mi casas
Muted, troll
Ezra, stirs up crap but can’t handle getting called out, feeble and weak, craves negative attention as it’s the only kind they can get
Yes they do. Pitchers are the most important outcome of a games decision. Beyond ignorance too say pitchers don’t win games.
IMHO, it is much ado about absolutely nothing. He had two weak games after coming back from a big layoff, but has been terrific in his last 8 games with a 3.27/3.09 ERA/FIP and a 55/11 K/W in 44 IPs.
Yes the Mets destroyed him his whole career. They own him.
Cole’s numbers looking pretty similar to last year’s.
BB%: 5.8 to 7.1
K%: 27 to 26.8
Swinging strike%: 11.7% to 11.7%
xFIP+: 84 to 92
@ Nick Deeds : 1. Cole chasing #150 amid struggles: 2nd paragraph
While his 26.8% remains excellent,
Finishing first in your division is a bit over rated. It didn’t help Baltimore, LA, Atlanta or Houston last year. The two team in the WS were both wild card teams. Just get in the the PO and, who knows.
The hot team always wins in the postseason, regardless of seeding. This isn’t the late 90’s with the Yankees steamrolling through everyone with a payroll double and triple the size of most other teams.
Rsox – Nobody was hotter than the 2007 Rockies who were 21-1 heading into the World Series. So while it’s true the hottest team often wins in the postseason, it’s not always the case.
True. However, from September 21st to the end of the World Series the Rockies would go 16-5 while the Red Sox would go 17-6 so pretty even I’d say
Based on FIP, he hasn’t pitched terribly, aside from when he faces the Mets & Red Sox.
Devers torches the heck out of Cole, he alone does enough damage against Cole to make his starts against the Red Sox end up in a losing effort…
That Astros-Orioles series is 4 games. First game is tonight on Fox, though New Yorkers can’t see it because Fox is forcing Yankeeland to watch the Phillies. The 4th game is Sunday night on ESPN.
Cole was at his best using spider tack. Maybe he should do that again if he already is not?
Cole certainly wasn’t the only one using sticky stuff.
He doesn’t and the Yankees perhaps renogiates his tenth-year option into a vesting option. Or they can guarantee the tenth year with a lower salary to reduce his overall AAV. It may make mathematical sense to do so if they plan to keep exceeding the CBT thresholds.
Yankees have money coming off the books, as you said YankeesBleacherCreature, Cashman will get creative to keep Cole an extra year and to pay for Soto.
No chance Cole opts out. He won’t get even close in free agency, to what he’s currently owed.