The Reds are going to promote pitching prospect Rhett Lowder, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic on X. The young righty will start for Cincinnati on Friday, making his major league debut. The club will need to open spots on both the active and 40-man rosters to make space for Lowder.
Lowder, now 22, was a standout during his time at Wake Forest. In his final year with the Demon Deacons, he tossed 120 1/3 innings, allowing 1.87 earned runs per nine. He struck out 38.6% of batters faced while giving out walks just 6.5% of the time. He was one of the top ranked players in the 2023 draft and the Reds took him seventh overall, the second pitcher taken after the Pirates took Paul Skenes with the first overall pick, with Lowder eventually signing and receiving a $5.7MM bonus.
The young righty didn’t make his professional debut last year, but he was still considered one of the top 100 prospects in the sport based on his college numbers and draft pedigree. Here in 2024, the Reds started him off at High-A, but his time there proved to be short. In five starts, he tossed 25 1/3 innings with a 2.49 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate.
That got him bumped to Double-A, where he made 16 starts with a 4.31 ERA but better peripherals. He had a 23.8% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. If it weren’t for a fairly high .333 batting average on balls in play, he would have fared better, which is why his 3.33 FIP was almost a full run better than his ERA.
Lowder then got bumped to Triple-A and made one good start there, tossing six shutout innings on Thursday last week. Though Lowder’s numbers have continued to impress, he may not have been promoted to the majors if it weren’t for the club getting devastated by injuries. In the month of August, the Reds have lost Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Christian Roa to the injured list.
Losing a bunch of arms like that would be a challenge for any club, but the Reds already had guys like Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson on the IL. Also, they have a double-header on Friday and just started a stretch of playing eight games in seven days. The current rotation mix involves rookie Julian Aguiar and swingmen who have been bumped into starting roles, such as Nick Martinez, Carson Spiers and Junis.
Perhaps this will just be a spot start to help the club navigate this challenging patch of the schedule. Even if Lowder stays a bit longer than one outing, the Reds will surely be keeping his rookie status intact one way or another. The club is now nine games out of a playoff spot and doesn’t have a strong chance of cracking the postseason at this point.
Lowder is already a consensus top prospect in the sport. Baseball America currently has him in the #38 slot overall. FanGraphs has him at #73, MLB Pipeline at #35 and ESPN at #55. Assuming the Reds don’t let him toss 50 innings this year, he’ll still be a rookie going into 2025 and will likely still be on those lists in some form.
That will allow the Reds to potentially take advantage of the prospect promotion incentive. To combat service time manipulation, the collective bargaining agreement awards draft picks to clubs if certain conditions are met. If the player is on two of three top 100 lists at BA, MLB Pipeline and ESPN with less than 60 days of service time, and then is promoted early enough in a season to get a full year of service, he can earn his club an extra draft pick just after the first round by either winning Rookie of the Year or finishing in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting during his pre-arbitration years.
At this point, the Reds don’t have much left to play for in 2024, so they will probably look to keep that PPI incentive on the table. But for now, they can get give Lowder a taste of big league life as they trudge through this viscous portion of the schedule. Though the club is currently in rough shape due to all those health concerns, fans can dream of a future rotation consisting of Lowder, Greene, Abbott, Lodolo and others going forward, as no one in that group is slated for free agency until after 2027.
He’s got 1 start at AAA. Wasn’t particularly good at AA. Seems a little soon.
You did see his last 6 in AA, right? And he’s by far the nearest pitcher ready for the bigs.
What he has to worry about is a manager who thinks Junis throwing 40 pitches, was too much. If they’re going to eat contracts this off season….eat Bells.
No I definitely didn’t see his last 6 AA starts. I have a lot of free time but not that much lol.
#Team-Lowder
#LowderForThoseInTheBack
He was lights out his last some odd starts in AA. It is a bit early though. But the Reds whole pitching staff is on the IL sans Martinez.
He got lit up in a few starts (BABIP) but the rest of the outings were pretty strong.
So if you take out the times he was bad he was good?
He had two extremely BABIP-affected starts as soon as he was promoted to AA. He’s been pitching pretty well since. His peripherals always greatly outpaced his results at the level, though, because of that BABIP luck.
But to address your sarcasm, yes! Outside of the few times he was bad, he was good–and he was good more than bad. Just like most effective pitchers in the big leagues, he wasn’t perfect and had some tough luck. Saying “he wasn’t particularly good” is a take some wouldn’t agree with when looking at the whole picture.
How the heck do you know that 2 of his starts in AA were hurt by BABIP luck?
I am looking at the whole picture. He has an ERA over 4 at AA. He’s pitched 6 innings at AAA. That doesn’t scream ready to me.
Because it was covered extensively and I read such coverage because I’m a prpspect geek. In his first game in AA, he gave up 9 hits on 19 balls in play. The luck value on each was incredibly high. The xBA was much lower than the .474 average against that day.
ERA is not the only way to evaluate a pitcher. Skipping AAA or having limited AAA opportunities is becoming more common. The Mariners have their pitching prospects skip AAA entirely. The development curve is not the same for every player.
Babip is a bit of a nonsense stat. Sometimes guys hit the ball hard and that’s why it’s high.
I am a Cardinals fan. Jordan Walker skipped AAA. That didn’t work out. We didn’t just get smarter all of the sudden. The minor leagues exist for a reason.
Sure, I get that point, but I just explained to you that this was not the case that day when I mentioned that the xBA was significantly lower than his .474 BAA. No matter how good or bad his stuff was on the day, you still have to acknowledge that a .474 BABIP is not normal.
Great, Walker is one prospect and he isn’t a pitcher. You know who else skipped AAA? Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller.
“We didn’t just get smarter all of the sudden.”
Highly disagree. Player development is light years better than it was even just 20 years ago.
We can agree to disagree. I just don’t see the upside in doing this now.
There is no upside to doing it now except ticket sales and fan interest.
I guess the upside is that he’s a good prospect who could stick and since they have about 50 injured SPs with nobody worth taking up a 40 man spot in the system in AAA, it’s a chance to evaluate him. It’s probably just a spot start if he gets shelled.
Joel, I think it’s readily visible that Rhett’s call-up has more to do with the Reds’ current IL situation than “being ready.” Besides, not every prospect is cut from the same cookie cutter, right? All situations are unique. How much AAA time did probable ROTY and 20yo Jackson Merrill get? Here’s hoping Rhett has a great cup of coffee.
Merrill worked out and I definitely didn’t like the Padres bringing him up when they did but it worked out for sure. As a Cardinal fan I saw them screw up Walker so that’s part of my thinking. No right or wrong answers here.
That’s fair. Cheers
A major downside is starting his clock when you don’t have too. He didn’t need to be protected from the upcoming Rule 5 draft, so he’s taking up a roster spot all winter when he didn’t need to. They obviously are predicting he’ll be up for good sooner rather than later.
Mike Leake skipped the minors all together and had a nice career. Skenes has shown he could have done the same. I know, limited sample size. No every pitcher is the same.
Another one of these young whippersnappers getting called up, huh?
Grrrrr get off my lawn!
@sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Well, at least if these kids stick around, maybe they’ll mow the lawn while they’re at it!
I have a bad feeling about this. I don’t usually want to rush pitching prospects that early. Wishing the best for Rhett!
Reds are a joke. Just treading water for the last few years and the next few. Bad fans, etc. little hope
Bad fans? How so
I’m not sure who your team is but had fans? I’m a fan, I know many fans, and we know baseball. We have a pretty extensive history and it’s unfortunate we’re stuck with the ownership we are. But bad fans?
More like bad comment.
Terrible
Wouldn’t matter if my team were the Rays or the Yankees or the expos.
You’re right. Team allegiance wouldn’t change fact that your comment contributed nothing of substance and only displayed a weird distain for a team and fan base you obviously know nothing about.
Great analysis Froggie. Ribit
Doesn’t feel that the Reds are rushing him. I would just explain we’re giving you a couple starts to see how your stuff translates to big league hitting and see where to make improvements. Just an early look because our staff is depleted. Maybe a spot will open up in spring training and he stays
Rhett Lowder is a great name. Rhett Hamilton Lowder makes it even better.
“Franky my dear, I don’t give a damn!”
He was one of the top pitchers in college baseball a year ago. Lowder pitched well the last couple of months on a terrible AA team. He has excellent control and the tools to excel in MLB.
Why does his arm need to be “saved” for next year? Give him some MLB exposure.
How is staying at AA ball saving his arm? He’s still chucking a baseball every six days.
I don’t understand this, Reds aren’t making the postseason and there’s no harm in further developing Petty or Phillips with a promotion unless the Reds feel they have a Skeens 2.0 here, and that’s unlikely.
Reds fandom is torment, ready for Browns football at this point which will also ultimately end in disappointment.
Lowder is the closest to being ready of the three which isn’t saying much since he just arrived in AAA himself. But his recent outings have been sterling.
Phillips just got back to Louisville after spending the summer in Arizona and still can’t find the plate this year with a compass and a GPS. Petty is still in AA.
They could have avoided a lot of this long ago when they had options but everyone knows that.
Under the radar some but I’m more excited about Williamson being activated than I am Lowder called. Long term maybe Lowder is better but there’s some there with Williamson I want to see more of.
I’m excited about Williamson pitching again, Lowder with an apparent Ml opportunity this Friday, Aguiar’s first ML start, as well as Acuna’s promotion to AAA. Still think Spiers can hang at this level also.
He’s definitely shown promise. I still think next year we’re looking at a Greene Lodolo Williamson rotation. All above mentioned with Ashcraft (who by the way would be a fantastic RP) in play unless this ownership looks elsewhere, and they won’t.
Rhetty is AWESOME BABY!!!
What does it matter? He doesn’t burn a year of service. I think the only thing the Reds lose is an option year if they send him down I believe. He can’t get a year of service time this year even if he stays on through the end of the year….nowhere close to the required 172 days on a MLB roster.
Effectively the same as beginning 2025 on the Opening Day roster, for purposes of service years. But it’s one more year of service versus waiting a few weeks into 2025 before calling him up.
Of course any future time he spends in the minors will play into things too.
This also gives the Reds one fewer 40-man spot to use over the offseason. Lowder was’t anywhere close to needing to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.
You are going to see so many dropped from the 40 in thr offseason just taking up space right now, it won’t be funny.
They also have a pile of players on the 60-day IL who’ll need to get added back.
They can still control him thru ’31 with Options, Johnny U.
I must admit, the Reds are my 3rd favorite team in the NL, Johnny, so I don’t follow them as closely as some of the more renowned Reds guys here… but I suspect it’s a renewed commitment to the fans in addition to being a low-key act of IL desperation. I could be 100% wrong, that’s just my gut, but I see how it could be construed as “strange” timing. Cheers
Manipulating service time is a quick way to put a bad taste in a prospect’s mouth (and make the FO look bad to every other player in the organization). The Reds will be better served by giving a top prospect his debut in MLB. He’s a key part of the rotation moving forward. Give him some experience with the big league club.
Well, that’s service time manipulation, which is a violation of the collective bargaining agreement and could be grieved by the player. Dirtbag move.
I am interested to see how the kid handles the fast promotion. May show the organization a lot of his makeup.
Nice little cup of coffee and then a more serious evaluation in Spring 2025.
“Viscous” describes a substance that’s thick and sticky, between a solid and a liquid…
“Vicious” is the word you were looking for to describe the next part of the Reds’ schedule.
And “Vichyssoise” is a soup made from potatoes and leeks, served cold. A favorite in the Reds’ clubhouse.
Variable vernacular victory!
Sid Vicious was an underappreciated professional wrestler who just passed away. RIP.
And the original Sid Vicious was in the Sex Pistols! *devil horns up*
That’s Lowder Chowder
The vicious Viceroy ate his viscous bowl of Vichyssoise.
It doesn’t matter if they promote Lowder now or sign Burnes for next season. As long as Bell is the manager, results will be more or less the same.
Ouch!
Fire Bell. He has no clue how to manage pitchers. How many games have we lost because he pulled a guy who was sailing along only to have the guy he put in give up the game? Hire Barry Larkin, Chris Sabo, Brett Boone, Sean Casey, I could even make a case for Corky Miller, but Bell is clueless. Benson needs to go. We have his clone waiting at AAA in Rece Hinds. Stop jerking India around, either trade him or don’t, but stop with the speculation, it works on a guys mind. Sign Elly now or trade him for 15 guys because he can’t carry the whole team on his back and he plays like crap when he tries.I understand that a lot of guys were on the disabled list, but how can you send 6 guys hitting under 200 out there night after night? I think Krall does the best he can, but Bell mismanages everything. And one last thing. Fire the strength and conditioning people and the training room people because so many guys are getting hurt ,so obviously they’re not warming up properly and then the training room people can’t seem to get the kinks worked out.
I like Bell but I’ve seen him out coached too many times. It also seems like he’s running a little league team and everyone gets a turn. Reds claimed a guy batting over .300 and instantly has the best BA on the team and I’ve seen him twice.
It’s time..
It’s hard for me to blame Bell when six guys are batting.200 and it’s all he has to run out there. Pitchers are hopping on and off the IL carousel.
They’re not all he has to work with. He’ll bench a guy hitting 290 to play a guy hitting 190 because the other guy supposedly can’t hit a left handed Sagittarius with a fu Manchu mustache whose father was a farmer. He’s given some of the most cockamamie excuses I’ve ever heard for not playing a guy with the hot bat. Analytics is done, give me an old school guy please!!!!!
Too bad Petty has not developed faster. He’s up and down but playing with one of the worst minor league teams in years. Bad defense doesn’t help a pitcher. Incredibly he’s won 9 games with only 4 losses. I know that’s old school stay but when the team is 39-78. That’s incredible that it’s that good.
These “Front Office” articles are really annoying! MLBTR should always be free with nothing locked. Free the content!!!
So literally they will engage in service time manipulation to be able to take advantage of a rule implemented to combat rampant service time manipulation. Awesome.