Jesus Luzardo Won’t Pitch Again In 2024

Aug. 8: Luzardo tells Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base that he is indeed done for the 2024 season and has already set his sights on rehabbing and preparing for a full season in 2025.

Luzardo acknowledged some frustration and disappointment with how the 2024 season has progressed for him. He’s still riding a bike and performing various exercises to keep in shape, but there’s simply not enough time left on the calendar for him to get back on the mound this year.

Aug. 6: Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo hasn’t pitched since June 16 due to a stress reaction in his lower back. The team never announced a formal timeline for his return, but Luzardo was moved to the 60-day injured list just a week after his initial IL placement, suggesting he’d be down for at least two months. It now seems his absence will extend even further, as the Marlins revealed yesterday that Luzardo’s no-throw period is expected to last another six weeks (X link via Isaac Azout of Fish On First).

Miami hasn’t said as much officially, but a six-week timeline simply to resume throwing all but eliminates the possibility of Luzardo making it back to the mound before the end of the season. Six weeks from yesterday would put Luzardo on about Sept. 16 before he even picks up a ball. The regular season ends just 13 days later, on Sept. 29.

If the back injury indeed proves season-ending, it’ll close the book on a frustrating year for the talented but inconsistent Luzardo. The 26-year-old southpaw pitched to a flat 5.00 ERA in a dozen starts spanning 66 2/3 innings. He missed time early with elbow tightness that led to concerns of another major arm injury — Luzardo had Tommy John surgery in high school — but he returned strong, posting a 3.98 ERA in 40 2/3 innings between IL stints. Half the damage against him (nine of his 18 earned runs in this stretch) came in one brutal June 4 outing against the Rays. His other six starts ranged from good to excellent.

The injury complicates the outlook of a pitcher who earlier this year looked like a surefire trade candidate. Even if Luzardo had been able to come back healthy for four to five starts late in the season, that might’ve been enough to showcase his health to potential offseason suitors. It’d hardly have been an ideal platform year, but other clubs could’ve felt reasonably confident they’d be getting a healthy version of the pitcher who from 2022-23 pitched 279 innings of 3.48 ERA ball while punching out nearly 29% of his opponents with a walk rate that sat a bit better than average.

Instead, teams eyeing Luzardo will have to factor in not only the early elbow issue but also the back injury that torpedoed his season. That previously referenced 2022-23 production is still alluring, as are the remaining two years of club control over Luzardo, but the health risk will be just as great a focus (if not greater).

Marlins president of baseball ops Peter Bendix and his staff will need to weigh offers this winter against what they think they could theoretically receive in a midseason deal. It’s possible, if not likely, that a healthy version of Luzardo in June/July could command more than the offseason version with significant health concerns — even though in the offseason Miami would be peddling two full seasons of club control as opposed to 1.5 seasons next summer. The Tigers went down a similar path with fellow lefty Matthew Boyd several years ago, fielding offers at multiple deadlines and through multiple offseasons while injuries continued to impact his stock. They ultimately wound up non-tendering Boyd in 2021 and losing the left-hander for nothing.

Holding Luzardo into the 2025 season could carry similar risk, but the front office also surely wants to avoid taking what’s perceived as a light package — only to see Luzardo bounce back with a healthy first half in 2025. It’s a fine line to walk and will be one of the most complex decisions for the Miami baseball operations staff this winter.