The Mariners announced that they have signed outfielder Víctor Robles to a contract extension. It reportedly guarantees him $9.75MM over the next two years, which includes a $1.25MM signing bonus. He can earn an extra $2MM via bonuses/escalators, $1MM in each season, $500K for reaching 500 plate appearances and another $500K for 600 plate appearances. The Mariners will have a $9MM club option for 2027. Robles is represented by Republik Sports.
The deal is a demonstration of what a remarkable turnaround it’s been for Robles in the past two months. After years of struggles with the Nationals, he was designated for assignment at the end of May. They reportedly then explored trades with other clubs but couldn’t find any takers. Since Robles had enough service time to reject an outright assignment while keeping what remained of this year’s $2.65MM salary, the Nats simply released him.
The Mariners took a shot on him, which essentially came with no risk. The Nats were still on the hook for most of his salary, leaving the Mariners to pay just the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Nats pay.
For that minimal investment, the Mariners have already been hugely rewarded. In 42 games for Seattle, he has three home runs and a batting line of .303/.372/.450. That’s 39% better than league average offense, per wRC+. His .349 batting average on balls in play is definitely on the high side but he’s only striking out at a 16.3% rate and that would be strong offense even with a bit of regression.
That’s especially true because Robles is capable of providing value even when he doesn’t have the bat in his hands. He has stolen 12 bases in 12 tries since coming to Seattle and provided competent glovework in the outfield, playing all three positions on the grass. FanGraphs calculates that he has been worth 1.2 wins above replacement already in his brief stint with the Mariners.
That has been especially valuable for a club that has struggled to generate offense this year. They have arguably the best pitching staff in the league, with their team-wide 3.42 tops in the majors, but the lack of punch at the plate has kept them fighting for their lives. They are 63-56, effectively even with the Astros in the division but 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.
Robles was an impending free agent but the Mariners have seen enough that they are willing to keep him around for another two and maybe three years. Of course, they’re not just making this decision based on the 42 games he has played since changing uniforms. During his time with the Nats, he was once considered one of the best prospects in the sport. He was on Baseball America’s top 100 list in four straight seasons from 2016 to 2019, getting as high as fifth overall in 2018.
He seemed to be delivering on that prospect hype in 2019, helping the Nats win the World Series that year. His .255/.326/.419 batting line was a bit below par, translating to a 92 wRC+, but he was able to produce 3.7 fWAR thanks to his defense and speed. He stole 28 bases on the year, racking up 25 Defensive Runs Saved and 21 Outs Above Average. Given that he was only 22 years old at the time, it seemed fair to expect that he was only scratching the surface of the player he was about to become.
Unfortunately, the opposite happened, as his performance dropped significantly for the next few years. For the 2020-22 seasons, he hit just .216/.291/.306 for a wRC+ of 66. He did spend some time on the injured list but that was a significant sample size of 965 plate appearances.
Despite those struggles, the Nats stuck by him, continually tendering him contracts as he reached arbitration. He seemed to be getting things back on track last year, as he hit .299/.385/.364 for a wRC+ of 112, but he was limited to just 36 games on the season because of back spasms in the lumbar spine. Nonetheless, the Nats agreed to the aforementioned $2.65MM salary for 2024, hoping that Robles could both stay healthy and put his past struggles behind him. But this year got out to a shaky start, as Robles missed about a month due to a left hamstring strain and hit just .120/.281/.120 in 14 games for Washington before they decided to cut him loose.
The Mariners have been rewarded with the version of Robles that the Nats thought they had many times in the past. The combination of his past prospect pedigree and his recent performance clearly has given the M’s some hope that Robles can keep producing for a few more years. There is obviously some risk there based on how poorly he has performed at times in the past, but they are also not sticking their neck out with vast sums of money.
The guarantee works out to less than $5MM per year, which is fairly modest in baseball terms. Even if Robles takes a step back at the plate and is merely a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder, that’s not a drastic waste of resources. And if he can continue to keep hitting, then there’s plenty of upside for the M’s.
For Robles, he is perhaps leaving a bit of money on the table here, but it’s also understandable that he would want to lock in some significant earnings. If he had continued to perform at this level for the rest of the season, he likely would have earned a larger guarantee than the one he’s agreeing to now. But as he surely knows from the winding path of his career, it’s not a guarantee that it will continue to go so well. After all, it was just two months ago that all the clubs in the league passed on the chance to acquire him while he’s making a fairly modest salary. If Robles had suffered another injury or simply struggled at the plate down the stretch, he may not have been able to secure a guarantee of even this size.
He also still has future earning power that he could tap into if he keeps performing. Due to debuting at such a young age, he’s still just 27 years old. This deal will cover his age-28 and -29 seasons with the option giving the M’s a chance to control him through his age-30 season. If he’s able to keep up his all-around performance through the course of this contract, he could line himself up for a more sizable deal at that point. If the option is triggered and he hits those escalators, he will have already banked $20.75MM off this deal.
The Mariners also get a headstart on bolstering their future outfield. They already have Julio Rodríguez locked in for many years and the recently-acquired Randy Arozarena is controllable via arbitration through 2026. Mitch Haniger has one more year on his deal after this and the club also has pre-arb guys like Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone in the mix, though Raley has been getting a lot of playing time at first base lately. Justin Turner figures to be in the designated hitter spot a lot for the rest of this year but is an impending free agent.
It’s arguably a crowded mix but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is one of the game’s most active decision makers and could deal from this group in the offseason if the opportunity presents itself. For now, he’s locked in a player who is perhaps breaking out, but without breaking the bank. Robles, meanwhile, has secured himself a really nice bit of financial security that didn’t seem possible just a few short weeks ago.
Yancen Pujols first reported that the two sides had agreed to an extension with a $9.75MM guarantee (Spanish-language link on X). Jorge Castillo of ESPN had the two-year length, club option and $2MM in bonuses/escalators (X link). Daniel Kramer of MLB.com provided the specifics of the bonuses/escalators as well as the signing bonus (X link).
Mariner World Series incoming
From your words….
Robles was a great pickup. Seems to have found his way after being released.
After a 100 plate appearances? lol
Yes, 100 plate appearances is a small sample and obviously he could regress back to his previous numbers, but the Mariners had him make major swing changes and it seems to be clicking. I doubt he’ll keep hitting at this rate, but the improvement might be real.
“After a 100 plate appearances? lol”
I mean people were saying he was terrible garbage after 33 pa this year so what’s the difference?
Right! This is more than just a hot streak. This looks more like a Ryan OHearn situation. The team saw something that his former team didn’t and they fixed it. It’s not necessarily a knock on the Gnats as much as it is praise for the Ms.
It’s amazing or perplexing, or however you want to look at it, how a change of scenery can turn someone’s career around. More power to’em.
They just swept the Mets this weekend while outscoring them 22 – 1! The question is are they this good or are the Mets that putrid?
Rob
Neither, of course
I mean the Mets have been playing good ball for a while now
Mets, … putrid.
Mets were tired from a 10-day four city road trip. They are better than putrid.
Mets can’t compete in the AL West and just lost 2 of 3 to Angels, 3 of 3 in Seattle both away and now dropped 2 of 3 to the A’s at Home. 2 – 7 while trying to compete for a WC slot? Not even pretenders. LOL
Seems like an over reach with such a small sample.
Seattle is the capital of the enchanted kingdom, Dipoto is a fool & a clown & mariners fans are delusional. Let’s keep the line moving. Ahahaha!
@Darren. It’s a short sample size. It’s also a pretty small extension. For a small amount they will get to see how much of this Robles can keep this going. I do have to admit though, this exit velocity is surprisingly low and I mean his entire career. This season at 84 is one of his best.
Absolutely an A+ move by the M’s.
It is, and I think that other players may take notice. It’s a good look for the teM.
Uhhhh ….
Low-risk, high-reward. I’m absolutely for this.
I’m surprised. I thought an extension was more likely to happen at the end of the season and I certainly thought he’d get more than that.
He made a notable change to shorten up his swing and utilize his legs more. A larger sample would have seemingly benefited him, especially considering the weak FA class of outfielders apart from Soto.
But, yeah, gotta love this!
I agree totally. I’m surprised both sides were so eager to pounce on this, but I suppose the M’s have been happy enough with what they’ve seen to extend an offer, while Robles locks in some financial protection and an assurance of an opening day roster spot next season.
Yeah, and in a worst-case scenario, he would be a platoon partner with Raley or Canzone.
But right now their outfield looks set with the three RHHs.
This also allows them to potentially use Raley more at first.base.
Yep, I don’t see much down side to this deal.
This signing has a lot to do with player relations. Not a huge investment, but it shows the team that ownership is willing to spend for performance.
Stevil, MyAccount2: those of us in the PNW who have followed the highs, lows and ultimately, the release of Seattle’s own top prospect: Jarred Kelenic can relate to the mixed reactions from the Nats fanbase.
It’s very easy for this Seattle fan to picture a happy ending with this Victor Robles reincarnation story. However I’m an optimist, you could say I’m a baseball romantic. The pessimists may use Kelenic as a cautionary tale here- they might say let’s wait a wee while before we annoint Robles as a Prospect who finally came good in Seattle. For example: JK may have started well in ATL but things have soured since. His 2024 season stats of .690 OPS, 89 OPS+ and .288 OBP tell a very different story from the one we ‘read’ at the beginning of JK’s Braves career.
I love this Robles signing- I think many of us in Mariner-Land had a sense it was coming too. It’s funny, so much can unfold in one baseball season. Let’s hope Señor Robles can help his new team reach a WS. Talk about a Hollywood ending!!
ayrb- This is a good reminder, and it’s true that it’s important to temper future expectations and optimism, but I’m usually a believer when improved stats are accompanied by a mechanical change. For that reason, I’m hopeful. His BABIP may not be sustainable, but he’s being paid like a 4th OF which is an outstanding deal for Dipoto and Hollander.
Let’s go Mariners and may he help lead us to the promise land!
I don’t know if Kelenic is a great comparable, though. He never made any significant adjustments or change to his approach that impressed me, or convinced me he could sustain success. His temperament/personality didn’t help, either. In short, I personally never really liked Kelenic and his success, as you suggested, was always in small stretches. He never adjusted to pitching adjustments well.
Robles has had success He had an excellent 2019 and a solid 2023, even though he never really hit for power. Shortening his swing has been more important than many people may realize, because it buys him time to commit to a pitch. This is reflected in his BB% and quality of contact.
I’m not proclaiming Robles is a guaranteed star moving forward. I’m simply convinced he can be a solid, everyday outfielder, and the price it cost to retain him presents no risk. He has a high floor.
If you look at his last 8 games, the numbers don’t impress. But his BABIP is .174 over that stretch, and he’s been seeing less fastballs. Seattle obviously isn’t worried, or they wouldn’t have extended him. and I’m optimistic because there has been consistency.. His big hit Sunday, for what it’s worth, was off a sinker.. His big hit Saturday was on a sweeper..
We’ll see what comes of this, but the opinion of National fans doesn’t phase me. They didn’t get to see him much this year and he didn’t have a bad 2023. Sometimes everything comes together for a player due to a number of factors, not just one or two specific things. I think that’s more likely what has happened with Robles.
Hopefully there will be a Hollywood ending.
And….I’d like to add to your point on his implementation of that mechanical change. Victor has actually improved his average EV in a Seattle uniform! Victor is actually hitting the ball harder than he ever did in DC!! That fact is fascinating to me because we all know this Seattle FO can only draft and develop Pitching! Wink wink! Haha
As a longtime Nationals fan, I can tell you that the DC faithful wanted nothing more than the Robles of 2019 to improve and become the star-in-waiting he was meant to be. But his pitch selection became woeful — he watched hittable pitches go by, then would swing at unhittable ones — the strikeouts endless, and one rally killed after another. Then there were his base-running gaffes — which we excused in 2019 but could not understand in ’22, ’23 and ’24. He just seemed clueless and unable to learn. He is capable of brilliant centerfield play but he also had some bonehead outfield plays that totally dismayed everybody. Some people blamed Nats hitting coaches for not being able to help him. No one could figure it out. But if the M’s have, more power to them.
I think the jury is still out; however, even if he regresses back to his career slash line of .240/.314/.361, that will play in Seattle. That has equated to an 84 OPS+ overall, but I’m sure the weight would make it a better OPS+ as a Mariner.
I think the expectation is he acts as a platoon RF or 4th OF going forward who can be a useful pinch runner and/or defensive replacement late in games. If he ends up being more, no one will complain. Haha.
Good for him. Incredible turn of events for a career on life support.
$9M… life changing guaranteed money. Good deal for both sides
What a turnaround. Wonder what they found in his mechanics that sparked it.
well, win a WS ring in your 1st full year, have decent production- then kinda down hill from there(the team and player).
-He took a deep breath, took some pressure off- is my guess.
Juiced ball merchant
He shortened up his swing so his uses his legs more than his hips. Shannon Drayer wrote about the hip/leg change, but he isn’t wrapping the bat behind him anymore. It’s up front, kind of like Matt Olson.
Well deserved for him, and well done by the Mariners.
Wow. He was just about toast with DC
His agent also reps Teo. He’d said Teo didnt like hitting in T-mobile. But
Teo sure like LA.
– Recently his agent praised JD/Justin for seeing a diamond that needed a opp to shine.
Julio moving to RF next year is my guess.
Julio has had a very strong defensive season. I think Robles goes to right, even if he is playing every day.. I imagine Farmelo or Peete needs to emerge to force Julio out of CF.
Let’s hope Farmelo emerges. He blew out his knee a while back and is out for the season. While no surgery is scheduled, hopefully he recovers well and resumes with a successful career!
It would take a lot to push Julio out of CF… I would have to imagine he stays there for a while, Mike trout is still in center and he’s slower and heavier
Doesn’t really matter who plays where in that outfield. With the pitching Seattle has and the ballpark, really the city’s weather, causing fly balls to die then a regular outfield alignment of Rodriguez, Arozarena and Robles is just about as good as it gets without absolutely breaking the bank for the three stars at each spot.
Even if Robles maxes out the deal, that’s less than $7MM AAV which is probably less than a vet fourth outfielder. His defense is league average or above with a plus arm. Excellent deal for the M’s.
I’m surprised he kept his word, on Sunday night baseball he said he wanted to stay here
Watched him on Espn last night, he was Mic’d Up and impressive. They asked him about if he wanted to stay in Seattle and he was enthusiastic. Seems to fit in well there. Kudos to him! Nice Story
He probably answered that question while extension talks were underway and knowing full well where he was leaning.
Divish reported that the extension was made before the game.
Probably why he was asked about his future mid-game while mic’d up in the first place.
Good for him. Didn’t seem like he got enough of a chance to turn it around with the Nats (33 PA’s over 14 games).
He absolutely got five years’ worth of chances with the Nats. Believe me, 99.9% of our fan base cheered when he was (finally) released. Maybe these two months, rather than the last five years, are the real Victor. Hopefully mariners fans will still be cheering in two years. It probably depends on how high your tolerance for TOOTBLANS is. A swing can be shortened. Can an IQ be taught?
Victor is a lot of things but is definitely not smart (the clown nose was so ironic coming from the clown himself)
Didn’t nationals fans hate him ever since after 2019
How do you know how smart he is? Did you give him an IQ test? From what I’ve seen he appears as smart as any average ball player. How smart are jocks to begin with? We aren’t dealing with rocket scientists here, but still your statement is ludicrous.
What on Earth is TOOTBLANS??? I’m sorry I guess I live under a rock for being the only one not getting this reference
Thrown out on the bases like a nincompoop
Where is this reference from, and how did it become a thing ?
I think he’s joking.
I hope he’s joking.
Google it
With that username he’s either very honest or a great troll. Either way, respect
Honest. For realz.
It sounds like something Jeff Passan would come up with, but he’s too nice to even call a player a nincompoop.
I’m not saying he came up with it, but I seem to recall Keith Law using it years ago. He is definitely not too nice to call a player what he is.
Fantastic!!! I absolutely, positively LOVE this guy!!! He’a got an amazing personality, so much talent, and great energy! We’re very thankful to have Victor Robles on our team!
You two should get a room.
Muted
A little bit on the enthusiastic side I see, not living up to your name
But I have to say having an outfield of Randy Julio and victor is fun
Good for Victor that he gets that kind of reception from a Mariners fan.
In DC he had worn out his welcome due to endless base-running and fielding mistakes. As a a Nats fan I often thought they were more from trying too hard than being stupid. Even I got tired of it since he wasn’t otherwise producing.
I’m not surprised that he improved his hitting but I am stunned that he apparently eliminated his mistakes. I didn’t think a change of scenery could be that powerful. Hope he keeps it up.
Bye bye Mitch.
Now that he’s got the dough watch his stats go back to the Robles we all know.
Few good weeks out of six years and he cashes in. Good for him.
That “few weeks” dates back to the beginning of June.
If we’re cherry picking, his stats last year and 2017-2019 were pretty good too
Jesse Winker goes to DC and revives his career. Robles goes to Seattle and revives his. Go figure.
He deserved the boos from Seattle
Been watching Jerry Dipoto for years he does this a lot……
Acquires a player from another team that had hit a wall. Said player does well off the bat. The player gets a raise in a multi-year contract. Said player reverts back to his old form. Said player is now overpaid for what he produces.
After this happens with multiple players the teams budget is now out of whack, limiting the ability to take on new contracts the team wants to take on in order to “get over the top”.
I wish Robles well. Liked watching him play with the Nats, but was frustrated with his inconsistency. He and Soto always hung around together.
Dipoto has still done a better job in Seattle than he did in Anaheim…
You forgot then we trade the player for box of cracker jacks and pay portion of his salary to team trading player to.
I do hope this works out though.
In the scheme of things it’s a small enough financial commitment that they can pretty easily move on if needed. But you have to assume they’ll give Robles at least through the beginning of next season at minimum. So one less potential addition this offseason.
Not last 10 4-6..June and july were good
Not very often do you see a hitter go to Seattle and completely turn it around. Remember Seattle almost ended Adrian Beltre’s career before it resurrected in Boston and Texas..
Mike Cameron did although he had a good year before joining the M’s.
“Almost ended…..’
That is a hell of an exaggeration.
Is it though? He went from being a 25 year old coming off a runner up MVP season to being considered a major free agent bust over the entirety of his 5 year deal in Seattle. I don’t think it is exaggerating to suggest if he did not have a bounceback year in Boston that he would have been looking at minor league deals.
Seriously, look at his final year in Seattle. There are not very many 30 year olds that put up an 83 OPS+ year that come back and post 7 straight top 20 MVP finishes afterward.
I wouldn’t consider his time as a Mariner as a free agent bust. Gold glove caliber defense each season and average offense (wRC+ totals of each season: 90, 106, 110, 106, 83).
Well everyone else did at the time.
“Almost ended” That’s not even close to being true. He was above average in his time in Seattle. His OPS was a combined .752. That’s not a player’s career almost ending.
His final year as a Dodger was considered a bit of a UFO performance wise. It was his seventh season in the big leagues and he had been mediocre or less in prior seasons as a hitter. Three previous seasons he was under league average each year with a combined 92 OPS+. That’s what he returned to his first year in Seattle before putting up three above-average good seasons. His career did not almost end! His 2004 looks less like an aberration today, but it remained his best year ever, with him never even vaguely approaching his HR or WAR totals the rest of his career. It’s still fair to wonder what exactly happened in 2004.
Haninger DH. Garver Gone !!! Poor Guy
They’ll keep Garver as a backup catcher. Haniger will definitely move to DH, good thing too
Haniger should be moved off the roster
Great deal for both sides. Manageable salary and some security for the player, who also gets to stay where he has become comfortable.
Happy for him, but wonder if Robles gave them a discount. I think he could have gotten more if he tested FA. He’s the Haniger replacement for next year and beyond, but no guarantees to have an every day role in Seattle with Raley and Canzone in the mix.
Good for Robles, that’s life changing money after years of grinding and grinding for the success.
The speed of a 24 year old Jacoby Ellsbury combined with the defense of a 25 year old Kevin Kiermaier combined with the batting prowess of a 26 year old Edgar Martinez combined with the hustle of a 27 year old Peter Rose.
Good for him he’s definitely had a wild ride to his career. Still remember when he was the untouchable prospect and some guy named Soto was behind him in rankings lol
Soto got the first call up only because Robles was injured when the Nats had an opening. Not quite Pipp and Gehrig, but there are What Might Have Beens. Good for him on finding his way.
Seems like everyone is just on board with 100 at-bats being all the evidence needed to say Robles has finally figured it out. As if so many retreads haven’t played well for half a season in new surroundings, only to completely plummet back to reality the next season. Good on him for milking more money out of a team, though.
This isn’t his first taste of success, and if you had read any of the articles by local, Seattle media, you’d know he made significant adjustments to his swing and approach.
There are no guarantees in baseball, but this extension wouldn’t have happened if Seattle’s professionals assessing the players didn’t believe in him.
I’d be more than willing to wager he out-performs that contract. $11M/2, plus a team option, is a steal, even if he is just league-average.
What goes up must come down.
Including fly balls into Robles’ glove.
For anyone wondering why teams bother picking players up off the scrap heap, and come here to criticise, here’s your answer.
I get that it’s been too small of a sample to be confident, but the contract reflects that I think. 10 million isn’t going to hurt the Mariners, and could be a pretty big steal if they really did fix him.
The Pirates could have easily had this guy this year seven years after they wanted to trade McCutcheon for him.
They got Reynolds instead.
And they could have now had an outfield of all three.
You know Cutch doesn’t play in the field. They’d still have an open audition spot in right field.
I think most Nats fans are rooting for this guy. Really excited to see how well he’s doing.
“Baseball Babe” from above doesn’t seem to be rooting for him and she says 99.9% of Nats fans were glad to see him go. I’m hoping she’s just using hyperbole and is cynical by nature.
On a human level, I hope he does well. As a Nats fan, I want him to revert to his usual self and tank the Mariners season.
Is that because Robles tanked with the Nats or do you just dislike the Mariners?
Good luck. This guy was a higher prospect than Soto. Maybe a change of teams will be the key.
If he averages even 3 WAR per season over the next two years, the Mariners got a hell of a deal.
Based upon his history, this is an over-commitment both in terms of length as well in AAV. A rather short sample size since the trade hardly warrants this contract extension.
That’s an interesting extension
Hell, we have a $5m infielder sitting in AAA in Luis Urias, This contract should hopefully make more sense than that one.
Fueled by a .360 and .349 BABIP in 2023 and 2024, and his highest HR% this year, since 2019. What could possibly go wrong?
I feel we all see him coming back to earth and no way he repeats the juiced ball stats of ’19. But he’s also never played a full season since ’19.
I like the whole concept around this deal. It keeps Robles around yet should be hungry enough to play at his best for another good contract in a few years.
If Ichiro is rejected by the Hall of Fame like so many writers and others are saying he is going to be rejected, then it will lose all legitimacy.
I don’t like the deal. He has had a couple good months ok. Let’s give him double what he was making before. Jerry is stupid unbelievably stupid. Remember Evan White I don’t need to say more. Good 6’months, Gold glove. Big extension now where is he. They should of waited till off-season. Get more of a sample size!!!!
Get more of a sample size!!!!
==============================
He is a free agent in a few weeks. You won’t get enough of a sample to change your mind.
He’s got all the talent in the world to make this a smart move. He only has to hit around .250, steal some bases and play plus defense to make this deal worthy. I think he’ll outdo those numbers…
Truth: Robles was ranked higher than Juan Soto on several prospects lists when they were coming up through the minors. They were ranked Nos. 1-2 in the Nats system by MLB Pipeline in 2018, with Robles in the top spot.
That’s true, just like Jarred Kelenic was ranked ahead of Julio Rodriguez in 2019-2020.
This is pretty cool. Good for Robles
Back to one of my favorite topics, not everyone needs to be promoted at age 20. All that usually does is to allow the player to leave after age 26. Of course, there will always be the exception. But what usually happens is that the player uses a couple of service years to grow physically and gain the experience that he might’ve been able to pick up in AAA.
Robles up at age 20
Garcia at age 20
Soto age 19
Abrams age 21
Kieboom age 21
“Meanwhile” needs to start the sentence. As a conjunctive adverb, it can’t come in the middle between commas.
Feel better?