The Giants’ late offseason dealings saw them sign two of the four prominent free agents who lingered on the market late into the offseason, inking Blake Snell on a two-year, $62MM deal and Matt Chapman on a three-year, $54MM pact. Both contracts came with opt-out opportunities this offseason — Chapman’s also has an opt-out opportunity post-2025 — and despite an early slate of injuries for Snell, both are looking like shrewd pickups now.
Snell has garnered more attention recently, which is understandable on the heels of a 15-strikeout performance that was immediately followed by a no-hitter in Cincinnati’s homer-happy Great American Ball Park. But while Snell draws headlines, Chapman continues to more quietly post excellent numbers. Both players look like locks to opt out at season’s end right now, although Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Giants have interest in signing Chapman to a long-term deal that’d keep him in San Francisco.
For the 31-year-old Chapman, the 2024 season has played out in almost inverse fashion to his 2023 campaign. Last year, Chapman roared out of the gates with a Ruthian start to his season, hitting .384/.465/.687 through the end of April. He was never going to sustain that level of production, but the extent to which his bat cratered was nonetheless alarming. The two-time Platinum Glove winner hit just .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. A hand injury suffered in August likely contributed to a truly dismal finish, but even leading up to that injury, Chapman had been a below-average hitter for a stretch of more than three months.
That cold snap carried over into the 2024 season, as Chapman hit just .222/.266/.385 through the end of April. Since then, however, he’s turned his season around. In 367 plate appearances since May 1, Chapman is touting a .257/.360/.473 batting line. He’s homered 15 times, walked at an impressive 13.1% clip and cut his strikeout rate from last year’s 28.4% down to 24.3% in that stretch. (If you truly want to cherry-pick, Chapman is slashing .275/.382/.519 since May 17.)
It’s been an odd stretch for Chapman, who from May 1, 2023 to May 1, 2024 looked the part of a hitter very much on the decline. He’s now spent more than half a season’s worth of plate appearances distancing himself from that slump, however — and he’s done so while playing his customary brand of standout defense. Between his renaissance at the plate and his always excellent glovework, Chapman has been worth 5.3 wins above replacement (per Baseball-Reference) and 3.8 WAR, per FanGraphs. The discrepancy stems primarily from bWAR using Defensive Runs Saved in its equation (which credits Chapman as an elite defender), whereas fWAR uses Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (which feel he’s been “merely” above-average). Regardless of one’s preferred version of the stat, Chapman has graded out as a star-caliber player this season. If he continues this pace, he’ll likely garner some down-ballot MVP votes.
Given the manner in which his season has played out, it’s not all that surprising to hear the Giants have interest in keeping him around. It can’t hurt that San Francisco brass was quite familiar with Chapman even before he signed there. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was an assistant general manager with the A’s in 2014 when they selected Chapman with the 25th overall pick in the draft. Skipper Bob Melvin managed Chapman in Oakland from 2017-21.
Many of the roadblocks that prevented Chapman from landing the nine-figure deal most anticipated last year still persist. He’s 31 years old and will turn 32 next April. There’s minimal precedent for position players at that age signing for $100MM+. Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve and Manny Machado are the only hitters in the past decade to sign contracts of that magnitude beginning in their age-32 season (or later). Of course, rare precedent doesn’t rule out the possibility — and there’s also nothing yet suggesting that Chapman is dead set on a nine-figure deal (though given the strength of his season it certainly seems like a likely goal for Chapman and agent Scott Boras).
The Giants have just under $85MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season (not counting the buyout on Chapman’s $18MM option). That’d jump to more than $135MM if each of Snell ($30MM), Chapman ($18MM) and Wilmer Flores ($3.5MM) picked up their player options. Flores seems likely to do so, but he could be the only one if Snell and Chapman stay healthy. Arbitration raises will be owed to Mike Yastrzemski (earning $7.9MM this year), LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3.5MM in ’24), Tyler Rogers ($3.2MM), Thairo Estrada ($4.7MM) and first-time-eligible closer Camilo Doval, regardless of the fact he was optioned to the minors tonight. No one from that group is going to push the Giants into uncharted payroll territory, and Estrada’s not guaranteed to be tendered a contract in light of his injuries and offensive struggles.
Looking further down the road, the only players on the books beyond the 2025 season are Robbie Ray (signed through 2026), Jordan Hicks (through 2027), Logan Webb (through 2028) and Jung Hoo Lee (through 2029). Ray can opt out after the current season (unlikely at the moment), while Lee can opt out after 2027 (although it’s far too soon to tell whether that’s realistic). Regardless of how those opt-outs play out, the Giants are just over $80MM in terms of guaranteed payroll in each of the next two seasons and around $60MM in 2026 and $45MM in 2027. There’s ample room on the payroll to factor in a long-term arrangement for Chapman, if the two sides can come to terms on a price point that’s agreeable for all parties.
Chappy staying in the bay, good or bad for giants fans?
Good! His defense is irreplaceable.
Good. He’s been better than expected
Great for the Giants who can’t produce all star hitters but why would Chapman do that before seeing what other teams are offering? There’s not a lot of gold glove 3B available this year.
They produced an all star hitter this year.
no they didn’t they signed Matt Chapman fully formed. They didn’t coach him up. Giants are a garbage franchise. look at their record for the last decade
You’re just a blind hater aren’t you. They’ve won a won world series in the last decade lmao
what conspiracy theory foppert the troll?
Ramos is a platoon outfielder who slashed .245/.290/.389 against righties.
Yeah Ramos is an all-star, versus lefties only though.
He’s referring to Heliot Ramos, asshat.
MLB has been caught changing the balls. You look silly sticking up for them foppert. It’s fans like you that let this stuff happen. People who are too lame to figure out what’s going on. If manfred was n the up and up he wouldn’t try to own the baseball manufacturer.
He was an every day player, but yeah being platoon while playing everyday made him an all star
Hashanah
Sure thing.
Heliot Ramos can’t even hit lefties. He’s onl;y an allstar because every team has to send one. The giants are on the same foot as other 4th place teams. They’re pathetic and won’t even make the playoffs
You’re Def some kinda slow. He was Def deserving.
Absolutely no one takes you seriously.
Who’s the troll, Meredith the punctuator? All signs point to you.
Organizations should develop more than 1 player.
They’ve won 3 World Series within the past 15 years. Those were under old management, yes, but hardly garbage. They’re not allowed to complain until 2026
MeredithWills,
“He’s onl;y an allstar because every team has to send one.”
Clueless. Logan Webb was already going to the AS game. There was no need to add Ramos, since they already had Webb as the team’s representative.
MeredithWills,
“Heliot Ramos can’t even hit lefties.”
Totally clueless. This season, his first full one, he has an OPS of 1.339 against LHPs.
its_happening,
“Organizations should develop more than 1 player.”
I guess you mean hitter? They’ve developed multiple pitchers, which is the focus of the team’s philosophy.
As hitters go they have developed more than one. They developed Adam Duvall, and Bryan Reynolds, both have been all stars.
No Jean, I said organizations should develop more than one player. The keyword is should. This is not to downplay the Giants organization who’s won (and developed) over the last 15 years.
Now, you would know the players developed over the last 10 years. I’m sure it’s more.
That sounds like a dodge to me. Your post was in regard to the opinion that Ramos was the only hitter the Giants have developed. Yes, ‘organizations’, but clearly, with the Giants organization being the topic. your meaning was obvious.
No Jean, I responded to someone else singling out one player. Then I said what I said and then you overreacted like you normally do.
Given your opinions on your Giants you do not know what obvious looks like. Your assumption is laughable. “Sounds like a dodge to me”. Um yeah….
If its true you meant it as you say. then apologies for misunderstanding. The problem though was your ambiguous language. It could have been interpreted as I did, by anyone. I didn’t overreact, but only took your meaning for something other than the way you meant it. But only due to the poor way in which you expressed your opinion.
There weren’t any other gold glove 3B available last year and look at how that played out. Maybe Chapman likes it there. He’s having his best offensive season since leaving Oakland and there may be comfort in playing for a familiar manager in a familiar environment
“Do that before seeing…there’s not a lot”…There’s never a “lot” of GG 3bman available in any year really. There weren’t a lot last year and yet Chappy lingered on the market. If the Giants are interested in a long term deal, Chapman would be wise to listen. Free agency isn’t always the end all be all and sometimes striking while the iron is hot is a smarter play. Next yr Chapman is a year older, not to mention the risk of having a season ending injury or more fallout from the Bally’s bankruptcy.
Bad. His defense is great but he hovers around league average offense, is clearly overpowered by the better pitchers in the league, and is going to cost way too much money.
30 Doubles, 19 home runs, 125 ops+. You’re definitely a casual
Doesn’t understand the importance of sample size or market value, definitely a math casual.
Wonder how the Giants fans feel about the 5/150 or more he is going to be asking for?
That one is easy. None of my business.
This is a board with the express purpose of talking about exactly that type of thing. If you don’t want to, scroll on by or STFU.
Did you not ask me how I felt about 5/150 or more ?
And everyone knows you are just looking to troll Giant fans.
Instead of STFU, just MUTE you.
You’re talking about the future, by definition nothing what you write is “fact” yet you write/reply and argue for your 2 cents as if it is fact. It’s worth 2 cents, the same as everyone else here. AKA fans who do NOT work in MLB front offices nor negotiate MLB contracts.
30 mill a year for a third basemen whose OPS has averaged in the mid 700’s, those are the sort of decisions that have plagued them since the world series dynasty.
That’s a big hell to the no.
We remember Evan Longoria’s decline years well. 2-3 years is plenty for Chapman. If he can get a longer contract elsewhere, he should go for it.
I like Chapman and what he has done but that number is high. I could see 5/110
LMFAO. He is making $22 million guaranteed THIS SEASON. He will get paid much, much more than that on his next deal after putting up a 2024 season with 6.0-7.0 WAR. $30 million AAV is a given unless some team gives him 8 years. I don’t think that many years is likely.
Chapman saw what happened to Doval after he turned Farhan down. He better tread carefully. I know MLBTR podcast is sponsored by Rawlings so they wont talk about the changing balls but isn’t the wild swings in performance under Manfred suspicious? Its not just one player too. How does Cody Bellinger go from Babe Ruth to Mario Mendoza?
Chapman the offensive and defensive captain. I’m not mad at it. With Mel at the helm. Good partnership. But they need more thumpers. Ramos is great. A center fielder would be good. The Korean guy I guess next season. A new first baseman. Second baseman. Shortstop. And better matchups off the bench. With the fences moved in, they could turn around the offense. Just need healthier players moving forward.
Does Tyler Fitzgerald no longer exist? Think he’s earned a look at SS/2B/CF if not downright stolen the everyday SS role
Dude has been Barry bonds since they let him play everyday
Yeah Tyler Fitzgerald=Barry Bonds, a guy that never hit double figuree homers is all of a sudden Babe Ruth?
What are you on about? Fitzgerald has been possibly the best player in the league since he’s been playing every day. Sustainable, probably not, but it’s starting to sway more towards likely
maybe you should look at Fitzgerald’s minor league stats too before you look even more foolish…
Ha ha. So dramatic.
Ah, a shoulder injury?
Doval is a headcase and an unreliable liability. Demoting him was a very good move for the team’s morale. How many 3 run leads do you have to watch him literally give away once he cannot get himself under control in a tight situaion. He is the anithesis of Tranquilo.
Chapman can take that as confidence the team will do what it needs to do to win games.
Remember who represents Chapman – Boras. And Boras doesn’t like extensions prior to FA
Chapman needs to remember what kind of deals Boras got for the Boras 4 & those who missed Spring Training
Chapman is not only needed by the Giants but his return is wanted
Zaidi needs to not drag his feet trying to gain leverage but do whatever is necessary to keep Chapman in a Giants uniform
The only leverage Farhan has is that he’s hoping the Giants are a team that the Chapman wants to play for. Barring injury, it’s a forgone conclusion that he (and Snell) will (both) opt-out. The issues surrounding RSN contracts shouldn’t effect free agency this upcoming off-season.
Snell wanted to stay over the deadline, and Chapman never wanted to leave the bay area. It’s not unlikely both stay
Both will opt out. Snell will get far more than $30 million guaranteed in FA. Chapman is on pace for 6.8 WAR this season. He is going to get a huge contract in FA. 5/150 or better. Unless the Giants open up their pocketbooks WIDE, He gone.
PFchang, research on line the days immediately following his signing. Chapman has no desire to opt out. All that’s needed from you is the ability to read. Read the terms of his contract. The contract you know zip about. He agreed to opt outs for him AND THE GIANTS. If he had stunk this year he was allowing the Giants an opt out. Go ahead PF, research it then do us a favor. STFU. Sound familiar. Chapman is going nowhere.
Chappy’s contract
24:$16M, 25:$17M player option ($2M buyout), 26:$18M player option ($3M buyout), 27:$20M mutual option ($1M buyout)
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
Its a PLAYER OPTION for 2025. He gets $2 million even AFTER he says adios muchachas by opting out.
If he stunk in 2024 we wouldn’t be having this conversation. Instead he is on pace to put up a 7+ WAR season and is hitting at a 125 OPS+.level. He knocked the season out of the park brah.
Next time, do some research before you spout off. That way you don’t look as bad as you do right now with egg all over your face.
And the Padres aren’t cutting payroll and anyone who believes the baseball world is a fool.
Which has exactly ZERO to do with the subject. Posting as your alt account of Claude Raymond you just got your face rubbed in it like a dog that pooped on the carpet, so you come back with that garbage. Congrats. now you look even WORSE than you just did 48 minutes ago.
Ha ha. I wish I was as knowledgeable as Claude !
Just pointing out that you own the biggest “egg on face” performance in a long long time. Daylight second. Maybe not enough time has passed for you to be aiming that claim at other people.
Sorry. Thought it was funny coming from you. But carry on….
Well done Claude. I admire your consistency.
Chapman’s going to be 32 and a lifetime .240 hitter. MLB GMs are getting smarter and realizing that the last couple years of a 4-5-6 year deal he’s more likely to be a .215/12/56 hitter in which case he’d be below league average and they’d be stuck paying ~$25M for the numbers on the back of his baseball card.
I can see why you have had so many accounts banned and have to have alts like Claude.
I think they both opt out to sign a long term extension.
Conforto will be gone. Alex Cobb’s salary is gone. There’s enough salary clearing there to afford giving Chapman and Snell a new deal.
Batting average really doesn’t play much into decisions on signing players. Look at the list of players that have had a 6+ WAR platform year going into FA and what they got paid.
Chappy was paid $22 million guaranteed this season. He will get substantially more AAV on his new contract.
Since most teams compile their own WAR-type ratings that don’t overvalue defense as a financial component as much as the OTC WARs, that remains to be seen.
Chapman’s a fairly pedestrian hitter by any rating, and is likely to see some fairly steep regression as he heads out of his prime into to his decline years. That’s why Toronto let him walk without an offer, allegedly.
Most teams have their own metrics for defense, but in no way do they lessen the importance of defense. A run saved is equal to a run scored. Period.
125 OPS+/122 wRC+ is not pedestrian.It is 22-25% better than MLB average. Better than 72-75% of the players in MLB. But thanks for showing your lack of knowledge of the subject. I can now safely ignore your comments going forward.
.245/19/61 with six weeks to go in the season. Get ready to give him that $30M a year, Preller. Maybe he can platoon with the already declining Manny Machado? Invest $70M in third base, because theoretical “runs saved”.
That’a what they said a year ago… and they are both 1 year older..
How to say you don’t understand what is important in baseball without saying your don’t understand it. Thanks PeePee.
“The only leverage Farhan has”…I disagree because Chapman lingering on the market after last season gives the Giants plenty of leverage. Not only that, there’s at least one less team needing a 3bman than last year. No way the Mets bring in an expensive 3bman next year after the emergence of Mark Vientos this year.
Redwolves3,
Boras does like to take his clients to free-agency, but them signing an extension isn’t unprecedented. Xander Bogaerts, Jose Altuve, Elvis Andrus and Stephen Strasburg all signed extensions in their walk years.
He’s reliably streaky. Love this guy, always rooted for him in Oakland. Much rather have Chapman than La Stella, Conforto, Soler, or a myriad of less valuable players they have signed over the last few season. As long as he isn’t demanding something redic work with him and get it done.
Should’ve given him 5/$125m when they had the chance
The giants should take his good year and move on.
I agree LD99. But just to play antagonist…
What is your next move if Chap opts out and signs else where? Roll out the red carpet for Bregman? Maybe a one year stop gap, like Turner, in preparation for newly acquired Ceballos?
I really hope they do. They have no other options at 3B, there are no good options available on FA market, and he would really look good in pinstripes so the Padres only have to face him a couple games a year.
“Take his good year and move on”…Of course that would wise, but we all know the Giants(or some other team) are likely to sign him to a long term deal they’ll regret almost immediately, after his performance declines greatly with long term security.
Pretty sure if the Giants guaranteed a fourth year and added a signing bonus in exchange for Chapman dropping his player options, they’d be good to go. Maybe add a team option for a fifth year with a generous buyout option as well. After the last off-season, Chapman and Boras shouldn’t hold their breath on getting better than that…
I think you are right. A $30 million signing bonus and a 4th year at $30 million with a $30 million player option for a 5th season should get it done. He has 5.4 WAR already this season and will end up over 6.0 WAR this season. Chappy is getting paid!
A .247 hitter after a hot period , worth 9 figures? Is that a joke?
5.4 WAR. 125 OPS+ Get out of your horse and buggy and move into the 21st century.
Ketel Marte and Shohei Ohtani. That is a list of every player in the NL with a higher bWAR than Matt Chapman. BA is among the absolute worst stats to gauge a player these days.
going off batting average alone…get out of the 1980’s my friend…
Looks affordable compared to someone like Arenado. It also says a lot about his glove — he slumps for a year and potentially gets a raise in his 30’s? Don’t see that often.
Can you build a team around a player that’s streaky? Plays the game the right way, never takes AB’s to the field. Got to give Boras his dues for spinning his web like no other agent in the game. Someone of Boras’s staff probably leaked this story to the press. What GM displays his intentions to the press for all to see? Everyone is drinking the Koolaid!
I would love him coming back. He is the epitome of a ball player. He hustles every at bat regardless of where he hit the ball. Absolutely game saving defensive plays. Unfortunately he’s made more errors than normal but he also gets to balls that most 3B don’t come close to fielding. He also really likes his teammates and it’s vice versa. He’s a true everyday player and plays with nagging injuries. Have to watch him every game to appreciate what he does on defense.And he really likes Melvin because Melvin never takes him out of the lineup. He will remain here on a new contract. I feel 98% sure the he’s a giant for many more years.
Yeah. Impressive man in how he goes about it. You would like to think the mutual interest is strong.
Chapman has 5.4 WAR and a 125 OPS+. Giants better open up their wallets and do it quick or he will be playing elsewhere in 2025. Probably in Dodger blue or pinstripes. Chappy going to get PAID! None of this $17-18 million BS. 5/150 coming.
Probably right but I do genuinely think he’d stay IF and only IF the Giants match the other offers
I agree. I think if the Giants are willing to put up the 5/150 or so its going to take to sign him that Chappy will stay. He said he really enjoyed his time in Oakland I believe he is from Victorville so its not that far away from where he called home. Plus, the Bay Area, especially the areas the players live in, is a very nice place to live and play.
He’s not getting 5/150 from the giants or anyone else. You’re about 25 to 33% too high.
Chappman got $22 million guaranteed for 2024 coming off a 4.4 WAR season with a 3.6 WAR season the season before that. He is on pace for a 7.0 WAR season as his platform season. 38% higher WAR than 2023. He WILL get paid more than the $22 million guarantee he is playing on for 2024. Absolutely. 100%. That is not even in question.
You may not like it, but Chappy is getting paid just like every other player this decade that was coming off a 6+ WAR platform season going into FA. $30 million AAV is a given. The only question is how many years. 5 or 6 is my guess, but coming into his age 32 season he could get 8. Although that might look more like 8/200-8/210.
I just don’t think people realize how good a 6.0 WAR season is for any player, let alone a 3B.
Or how rare it is for a player to put up 7.0 WAR like Chapman is on pace to do this season.
“…coming into his age 32 season he could get 8. Although that might look more like 8/200-8/210.”
You must be joking or you hope SF is saddled with a burden that would be an 8-year deal to Chapman. This is not San Diego where bad contracts are handed out like candy.
Ray, Lee, Hicks, and Conforto entered the chat.
With his signing bonus and buyout, Chappy is making more than $20mm. He will get a substantial raise for putting up a 6-7 WAR season. If some team is willing to go 8m which is far from out of the question for a 6-7 WAR player, the AAV would probably be less than if they go 5. So 8/200-8/210 is very much in play. 5/150 is much more likely.
Agents work for the players, not the other way around. Players sign with Boras because they want top $ and under normal circumstances those players go to free agency. Last off-season wasn’t normal and I’m not sure anyone can truly say this off-season is going to be normal. If I had to wager in Vegas, I’d bet that it’s not.
Last season Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Nola were the only guys who got north of $100M in free agency, Glasnow and Wheeler got extensions over $100M that’s was it. This FA class has Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and likely Blake Snell at the top as people who are going to paid easily over $100M, Soto $400?, Burnes and possibly Snell over $200?
Alex Bergman is next up on the list, like Chapman in 2023 is not having a good platform season but is 1yr younger and behind him is Pete Alonso who’s 2yrs younger. Remarkably all the players I just mentioned are represented by Boras.
If I am Chapman and remember how last year the music stopped and he didn’t have a chair, I’d think long and hard about the guarantee being put in front of me because Chapman is not anyone’s 1st choice, not off the top of my head. Cody Bellinger could be Chapman’s cautionary tale, Bellinger yet another Bora client will opting out looking for $$ who is younger than Chapman.
Not one of those players you mentioned had a 7 WAR platform year like Chappy is on pace for. The man is getting paid. Big piles of Benjamins.
The conversation is going to be about how much over $150 million teams will pay and there are multiple teams in dire need of a 3B including the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubbies, Astros if they lose Bregman, and Giants once he opts out.
I would say the Blue Jays too, but I doubt they step up to try and bring him back after letting him walk last offseason, but they definitely need a 3B.
Again you keep throwing out 5/150, he won’t even sniff that amount.
Every single player that has become a FA coming off a 6+ WAR platform season has made a $30 million AAV. At his current pace Chappy will be around 7.0 WAR. He got $22 million guaranteed for 2024 coming off a 4.4 WAR season, so the AAV of his next deal will undoubtedly be at or above $30 million.
The only question will be how many years. He won’t get 8 years because of his age, but 5 is a very safe bet. 5/150 isn’t a top end result, its the start of negotiations. If they don’t come with at least that amount they won’t even be in the conversation
$150 million for 6 years?
5
Overpay. Even when you make a poor attempt at “well if you look at WAR it means he should…..”. Your argument must also factor the position on the field. plus age. Your boy Manny Mach got his being in his late twenties. Chapman is not. He will be turning 32 years old in year one. Not to mention a shaky bat and a one-time all star. That would be a GM’s all-time low signing.
As A Jay’s fan SF can have him. The guy has great defense but his bat wasn’t clutch. K’d way too much. Not worth the $ he wants.
Dodgers should pounce on this as soon as he opts out