Since Opening Day, MLBTR has taken periodic looks at the upcoming free agent class. This is our third (and likely final) installment of our in-season power rankings. Players still have a month and potential postseason play to move things around, yet the class is coming into focus.
There’s no suspense at the top of the list. The 1-2 have remained unchanged from start to finish (although the gap between 2 and 3 has closed in the past few weeks). This is our attempt to capture a player’s earning power, so age is big factor. This is not strictly a list of the best players in the class, though talent is obviously the starting point.
Our power rankings are compiled collaboratively. We worked with Darragh McDonald — with input from MLBTR founder and owner Tim Dierkes — for this installment. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are eligible for the list. Stats are through play on August 29.
- Juan Soto, OF, Yankees
Soto has been the clear top free agent in the class for years. He has been on track for a record-setting deal (in terms of total guarantee, AAV or both) for a while. To top it off, Soto is amidst arguably his best season during his platform year. He has already established a new career mark in home runs. He’s going to hit 40 for the first time and could top 45 by year’s end. Soto is hitting .291/.421/.590 on the season. This will be his fifth consecutive season with more walks than strikeouts.
Approaching his 26th birthday, Soto is ostensibly at the beginning of his prime. There’s not much room for him to get better, but a signing team could realistically expect another seven to 10 years of elite offensive production. Soto’s league-best strike zone awareness should age gracefully. It’s essentially unheard of for teams to be able to sign a player who is on an inner circle Hall of Fame trajectory with another four full seasons before he turns 30. Every high-payroll organization should be involved.
While Soto generally doesn’t provide a ton of defensive value, he’s having a decent season in that regard. He has a career-high five defensive runs saved in nearly 1100 innings. Statcast has him right around average. Soto could move to designated hitter in the latter half of a deal that exceeds a decade but shouldn’t have any issue sticking in right field for the foreseeable future.
Soto turned down a reported $440MM extension offer from the Nationals a few years ago. His camp subsequently rebuffed overtures from the Padres and Soto shut down any chatter about a potential midseason deal with the Yankees in June. He’ll be three years younger than Shohei Ohtani was during his free agency. Soto isn’t likely to accept a deal with the kind of deferrals that Ohtani took, but he should handily beat the approximate $461MM net present value of the Ohtani contract. He should top half a billion dollars and it wouldn’t be surprising if his camp at the Boras Corporation were aiming for something close to or north of $600MM and/or multiple opt-out chances.
2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Orioles
Burnes has been the #1 pitcher in the class throughout the summer. He has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young balloting in four straight years, highlighted by his ERA-leading 2021 season in Milwaukee. Burnes is having a good year, working to a 3.23 earned run average across 164 1/3 innings. His production has slipped coming out of the All-Star Break though. He carried a 2.43 ERA into the Break but is allowing more than five earned runs per nine in 45 2/3 innings in the second half.
The recent results are the continuation of a slightly alarming trend. Burnes was among the game’s top two or three strikeout artists a couple seasons ago. That has gone in the wrong direction over the last two years. After fanning north of 30% of opponents in each season from 2020-22, his strikeout rate dipped to 25.5% last year. It is down three more percentage points during his first (and potentially only) season in Baltimore. Burnes had a 23.3% strikeout rate before the Break and is fanning a slightly below-average 20% of batters faced within the past six weeks.
There hasn’t been an obvious corresponding downturn in his stuff. Burnes is averaging a personal-high 95.5 MPH on the cutter that serves as his primary pitch. The speed on his breaking pitches is in line with his career marks. Yet as his velocity has picked up throughout the season, the whiffs have dropped. Opponents have jumped all over his cutter and curveball in uncharacteristic fashion this month.
None of this means Burnes is no longer a good pitcher. He’s in the top 30 among pitchers (minimum 100 innings) in both ERA and swinging strike rate. Burnes is averaging over six innings per start. He hasn’t had a non-illness related stint on the injured list in four years. There’s some amount of concern with every pitcher in the class and Burnes provides the best combination of durability track record and ace upside. Still, teams will need to determine how concerned they are about his two-year dip in swinging strikes when considering whether to meet an asking price that’ll very likely remain north of $200MM.
3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Astros
Early this season, Bregman looked headed for a lost year. The former No. 2 overall pick was hitting .201/.270/.264 as deep into the season as May 12 — a span of 160 plate appearances. At that point, it was fair to wonder whether he’d be able to turn his season around.
Bregman has done that in spades. Over his past 388 plate appearances, he’s hitting .284/.335/.518 with 20 homers, 20 doubles, two triples and his typical above-average glovework at the hot corner. His overall season batting line is still skewed by that ugly start, but for the past 87 games, Bregman’s 3.6 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs) rank 15th in all of baseball.
It’s worth emphasizing that even throughout this turnaround, however, Bregman isn’t quite the same superstar-level hitter he once was. He’s been 42% better than average during this run, by measure of wRC+. That’s still great, but it’s a ways shy of the elite levels of offensive output he delivered in 2018-19, when he finished fifth and second in AL MVP voting, respectively. Bregman’s once outstanding plate discipline has faded this season as well. After walking in 13.8% of his plate appearances from 2018-23, he’s down to 6.8% in 2024. It’s the first time he’s had a below-average walk rate since his 49-game rookie season back in 2016.
Some teams might be turned off by Bregman’s batted-ball data as well — an issue that harmed Cody Bellinger’s free agency last offseason. Though Bregman has long been a plus hitter, he’s never made loads of hard contact. He’s sitting on an 89.4 mph average exit velocity and 41.4% hard-hit rate this year. Both marks are only a bit higher than the league average, but they’re higher than Bregman’s career 88.8 mph and 37.8% marks in those respective categories.
Some might think Bregman to be a product of Minute Maid Park’s friendly dimensions. The short left field porch, the Crawford Boxes, sits only 315 feet down the line. That’s surely benefited Bregman throughout his career and perhaps even informed his swing mechanics and approach at the plate. However, Bregman also flat-out hits wherever he is. The difference between his rate stats at home (.271/.371/.475) and on the road (.275/.363/.489) are negligible. If anything, he’s hit for slightly more power on the road than at home.
Even setting aside his ’18-’19 peak, Bregman has been a consistently standout player in the five seasons since. He’s batted .261/.352/.443 during that time, shown elite contact skills (12.6% strikeout rate) and played above-average defense at an important position. Bregman never settled in as a perennial MVP candidate, but he’s averaged 25 homers and better than four wins above replacement (4.4 bWAR, 4.8 fWAR) per 162 games since 2020. Teams are going to covet his hard-nosed personality as well; one general manager who’d like to sign Bregman told ESPN’s Jeff Passan that he would “completely change our clubhouse for the better.”
The MLBTR team is perhaps more divided on Bregman’s earning power than any other player on this list, but we generally agree there’s a clear nine-figure deal to be had here. Heading into his age-31 season significantly limits him, however. The question is whether the market views him with some trepidation and tries to stick in the low $100MMs or whether interest is bullish enough to push Bregman close to the $200MM range — despite minimal precedent for such a contract at his age. How he finishes the season will be a key factor.
4. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers
Adames has rebounded from his worst offensive showing in Milwaukee. He slumped to a .217 average with a .310 on-base mark a year ago, but he’s up to a .252/.337/.451 slash over 572 plate appearances this season. Adames has already matched last year’s total of 24 homers and has a shot to get to 30 longballs for the second time in his career. That’s not easy to find at the infield’s toughest positions. Among primary shortstops, only Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor have more homers than Adames’ 79 over the past three seasons.
He pairs that above-average power with a patient approach. Adames has walked in more than 11% of his plate appearances in consecutive seasons. He doesn’t have great pure contact skills and his strikeout rate has spiked over the past couple months. While the whiffs keep Adames a tier below the game’s elite infielders, he’s an above-average regular who routinely draws praise from teammates and coaches for his leadership and clubhouse presence.
Traditionally, Adames’ glove is one of his calling cards. He has been a plus defender for the bulk of his career. This year’s defensive performance has been erratic. Statcast has graded him as an average defender, while Defensive Runs Saved has been very down on his work (12 runs below average). It’ll be his first season with a subpar DRS since his 2018 rookie year.
Adames has committed 17 errors this year, fourth-most among shortstops. Statcast still credits him with plus range and arm strength. He’s not showing signs of physical decline. The walk year isn’t an ideal time for Adames’ defensive performance to crater, but this season’s poor numbers seem like more of an aberrant spike in errors than an indication that he’s losing athleticism that’ll force him off the position.
As he approaches his 29th birthday, Adames has pulled away from Ha-Seong Kim as the top shortstop in the class. He’s far better than anyone who was available in last winter’s group of shortstops. Adames should beat nine figures and has an argument for a six- or seven-year deal that puts him in the $150MM+ range. Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Dansby Swanson all leveraged this general profile into strong contracts. None of those deals have worked out well, so perhaps teams will round down on Adames, but the market has thus far placed a lot of value in shortstops with power.
5. Blake Snell, SP, Giants *
Two months ago, Snell had fallen off this list. How things have changed. The two-time Cy Young winner is back. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored at greater length in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, Snell has been the best pitcher in baseball for two months. Since the start of July, he carries a 1.30 ERA with an MLB-best 37.1% strikeout rate through 55 2/3 innings. His 18% swinging strike rate over that stretch easily leads all pitchers with 40+ innings. He has reached 10 strikeouts in four of his last six starts. He followed up a career-high 15 punchouts against the Rockies on July 27 with an 11-strikeout no-hitter of the Reds in his first appearance of August.
Snell’s disastrous start to the year feels like a distant memory. He signed late and allowed more than a run per inning through his first 23 2/3 frames. He had two stints on the injured list related to left groin issues. Snell’s sheer dominance since returning from his second IL stay makes it seem like he simply wasn’t healthy for the first couple months.
While Snell has been famously streaky throughout his career, few pitchers can match his highs. Over the last three seasons, he owns a 2.93 earned run average with a 32% strikeout rate over 387 innings. Even Burnes probably doesn’t have Snell’s ceiling at this point, though the left-hander has not been as consistent as the Baltimore ace.
Unless he suffers an injury in the next few weeks, Snell is a virtual lock to decline his $30MM player option for next season. He’ll return to free agency at age 32 and likely take another swing at the kind of deal that alluded him a year ago. Snell recently refuted (X link via Foul Territory) a report that the Yankees had offered him a six-year, $150MM deal last winter. It’s not clear what kind of money was on the table, but it wasn’t sufficient for Snell and his camp at the Boras Corporation to consider it preferable to the two-year guarantee that he ultimately signed with the Giants. He’ll try again without being tied to draft compensation and could take aim at a deal in the $150-200MM range.
6. Matt Chapman, 3B, Giants *
As with Snell, Chapman signed with the Giants late in the winter upon not finding a long-term deal to his liking. He started the year slowly, running a .266 on-base percentage through the season’s first month. Chapman has been fantastic since then, slashing .251/.349/.458 since the start of May. He’s up to a .244/.331/.440 mark with 21 homers across 562 plate appearances — offense that checks in 17 percentage points above league average, as measured by wRC+.
That’s par for the course for Chapman. While he’s been prone to significant swings in performance within seasons, his results at the end of the year tend to be consistent. He’ll hit around 25 homers with enough walks to offset a higher than average strikeout rate and middling batting average.
Chapman pairs that solid offense with some of the best third base defense in the majors. He’s a four-time Gold Glove winner who still rates as one of the game’s top glovemen. Chapman will play next season at 32, so his athleticism and defensive metrics might drop off within the next few seasons, but he’s one of the better all-around infielders in the majors right now.
The Giants have already opened extension talks with Chapman’s camp at the Boras Corp. He’s a Fullerton product who has a strong relationship with San Francisco manager Bob Melvin. Chapman looks likelier than anyone else on this list to sign an extension before free agency opens as a result. If he makes it to the open market, he could seek a five-year deal that exceeds $100MM.
7. Max Fried, SP, Braves
Fried established himself in the Atlanta rotation by 2019. He has been a consistent top-of-the-rotation presence since then. Over the past five-plus years, the 30-year-old southpaw has a 3.09 ERA over 139 starts. Fried hasn’t been quite as effective in the postseason, but he’s one of the biggest reasons for the Braves’ recent run of success.
The former seventh overall pick doesn’t miss bats at the level of a typical ace. He has a career 23.8% strikeout rate and has fanned 22.8% of batters faced this season. His 10.1% swinging strike rate is a hair below average. Fried excels in contact management. His 58.1% ground-ball rate is fourth among pitchers with 100+ innings. He has a five-year track record of suppressing hard contact. While Fried’s 93-94 MPH fastball isn’t overpowering, his secondary stuff (especially his curveball) is excellent.
The biggest concern with Fried is his recent injury history. A forearm strain cost him three months between May and August last summer. Fried spent a couple weeks on the injured list with ulnar neuritis coming out of the All-Star Break this season. He hasn’t pitched especially well since coming back, allowing a 5.26 ERA (albeit with a strong 27.7% strikeout rate) over his last 25 2/3 innings. It’s possible teams will have some trepidation about his arm health, but Fried has an argument for a deal in the Patrick Corbin ($140MM) or Carlos Rodón ($162MM) range if he finishes strong.
8. Jack Flaherty, SP, Dodgers *
If Fried offers consistency despite pedestrian strikeout totals, Flaherty is a more volatile upside play. The 28-year-old righty has some of the best bat-missing stuff in the majors. He has punched out 31.1% of batters faced behind a 13.6% swinging strike rate over 23 starts. He’s fifth in strikeout rate and 11th in whiffs among pitchers with 100+ innings. Flaherty has paired that with a career-low 4.8% walk rate, firing 135 frames of 3.07 ERA ball.
Excellent as his production has been this season, Flaherty is a year removed from posting a 4.99 earned run average between the Cardinals and Orioles. He has looked like a Game 1 starter at his best and a back-of-the-rotation arm at his worst.
Flaherty battled oblique and shoulder injuries between 2020-22, limiting him to 154 2/3 innings over that stretch. He has not been on the injured list in the last two years, yet that hasn’t silenced questions about his health. The Yankees reportedly pulled out of a preliminary deadline deal with the Tigers after identifying an undisclosed concern in his medical review. The Dodgers apparently didn’t share such concerns, as they sent prospects Thayron Liranzo and Trey Sweeney to Detroit thereafter.
Entering his age-29 season, Flaherty is one of the younger pitchers in the class. He doesn’t have the consistency of a $200MM arm but could land in the lower nine figures on a deal similar to Robbie Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with Seattle.
9. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets
The personification of the prototypical slugger, Alonso has been the second most consistent power hitter in the game since his 2019 debut. In that time, only Aaron Judge’s 225 home runs top Alonso’s 220 for the MLB lead. The Polar Bear simply mashes. He’s never hit fewer than 37 homers in a full 162-game season. He’s as durable as they come, never missing more than 10 games in a season since debuting, and the only two players with more plate appearances than Alonso since 2019 are Marcus Semien and Freddie Freeman. Teams know Alonso is likelier than most to be out there every day, and he’s assuredly going to hit for more power than nearly any of his peers.
On the other hand, Alonso will turn 30 in the offseason. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal. His defense at first base is not considered to be strong. Alonso walks at an above-average but not-elite clip. Paired with his low batting averages, that typically limits his on-base percentage to the .330 to .340 range.
None of those are glaring flaws on their own, but bundled together they could make for a concerning profile among today’s front offices. A 30-year-old slugger without defensive value who sports pedestrian OBP marks and is tied to draft pick compensation — that’s not a recipe for a mega-contract. Modern teams have been increasingly wary of paying a first-base-only profile late into their 30s — or even signing such players to truly long-term deals as well.
Freeman (six years, $162MM) and Paul Goldschmidt (five years, $130MM) both inked long-term deals beginning with their age-32 seasons. Alonso is younger but also not considered as complete a hitter as those two were when they signed. It’s easy to imagine Alonso and Scott Boras wanting to top Freeman, but Alonso could have a hard time climbing to such heights.
10. Anthony Santander, OF, Orioles
Santander’s been a quality power hitter for the Orioles for years now, but he picked the right time to take his game to another level. The 29-year-old switch-hitter popped 33 home runs back in 2022 but surpassed that mark weeks ago. He’s currently sitting on a career-high 38 home runs. A 40-homer campaign seems like a lock, and Santander could finish with 45 to 50 homers if he enjoys a hot September.
Even if this is a career year in terms of power output, Santander has proven himself a perennial 30-homer threat. He does damage from both sides of the plate, though he’s a more pure lefty hitter. Santander draws more walks, strikes out less often and is a generally well-rounded hitter from the left side. From the right side, he morphs into more of a three-true-outcomes slugger. It all balances out for steady production that any club would be happy to plug into the middle of its lineup.
As is usually the case, the impressive power profile isn’t without its flaws. Santander is limited to the outfield corners (plus some briefer cameos at first base) and doesn’t grade out as a plus defender anywhere. He’s a passable enough right fielder, showing above-average arm strength to go along with plodding range, but no one’s ever going to claim Santander is an elite defender. He’s a bat-first player who figures to slow down as he enters his 30s. It’s reasonable to think that by the second half of a contract, he’ll be a clearly below-average defender in the outfield.
Even at the plate, Santander is a free-swinger who doesn’t walk like the quintessential slugger. He has a slightly above-average walk rate from the right side of the dish but is below-average from the left side. Overall, he’s walked in just 7.1% of his career plate appearances, including a below-average 8% in 2024. Santander doesn’t strike out much (20.7% career, 19.4% in 2024), but he’s still prone to low OBPs because he broadly lacks patience.
Much of what was said regarding Alonso applies here, too. Santander has more defensive value as a currently playable outfielder but a less consistent track record of 40-homer power. But like Alonso, he’ll reject a qualifying offer and head into free agency as a 30-year-old slugger with OBP questions and middling defensive contributions. While Alonso’s regular display of 40-homer pop makes him feel like a lock to reach five years, Santander could be hard-pressed to find that length. A high-AAV three- or four-year contract will likely be in play as one of the best non-Soto power bats on the market.
* Denotes ineligible for qualifying offer
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Cody Bellinger *, Gerrit Cole *^, Paul Goldschmidt, Teoscar Hernández, Clay Holmes, Ha-Seong Kim, Sean Manaea, Tyler O’Neill, Nick Pivetta, Jurickson Profar, Max Scherzer *, Luis Severino, Justin Verlander *, Christian Walker
^ Cole has the ability to opt out of the final four years and $144MM remaining on his deal at season’s end. If he triggers the opt-out, the Yankees can void it by exercising a $36MM option covering the 2029 season — bringing their commitment to five years and $180MM. MLBTR explored the Cole situation in detail in a post for Front Office subscribers this week.
Who does #2 work for?
Who does #2 work for?
The Orioles!!!
Who isn’t gonna be able to sign Corbin Burnes ….. The Orioles!!! ….. If they do sign Corbin Burnes …. Next question is who will they NOT be able to sign down the road. Orioles don’t have the resources to sign all the young dudes they want to horde. How much $$$ is left after the catcher gets paid???
Obviously money isn’t unlimited, but we don’t know what to expect from the new owners I think is fair to say.
Tabata – I disagree.
New owners tend to spend more, craving their first taste of a championship.
The O’s haven’t won in over 40 years, which provides more incentive.
And the O’s obviously have a very strong young nucleus, their window to GFIN by supplementing with free agents is now.
I’m fairly certain they will spend this offseason.
I too believe the O’s will try to spend but with Burnes, I believe it will just be increasing the cost of where he wants to sign. While testing the market is possible, if he wanted to stay, I think the team would have signed him already even at top dollar to send a message to their fan base.
They very well may have tried to sign him already. Little incentive for him to do it at this point. He’s pitched all the way to walk year without security. He probably wants to use free agency to maximize value.
“What to expect from the new owners ..fair to say”…I tend to agree, since the new owners have now had even more time to assess debt, revenues and the state of the MASN RSN fiasco. We’ll all have to wait to see if new Orioles ownership is willing to make major financial investments in the on-field product.
I’d have to assume all that was thoroughly analyzed before they agreed to pay $1.7 Billion for the team.
Orioles are now the shiny new to, so they likely plan on putting some money into the on-field product. I think the wait and see is whether they have earmarked a very specific budget or will be ran with looser budgetary guidelines where they ll be more focused on acquiring team needs opposed to running within a clearly defined budget.
Regardless they put $1.7 Billion into just acquiring a product. That product is ready to win now which equates to increased revenue and value. They obviously know that and are almost certainly planning on capitalizing on that.
They also still have so much minor league ready for the majors capital that they can again swing a trade with say the Tigers and use their financial ability to lock up certain players if such is possible. I do
Well Burnes is still #2 and works for the Orioles
Burnes has been terrible lately. If he keeps pitching like his last 4 starts the Os will not miss him much. He does not look like an ace right now at all.
Right now the O’s aren’t thinking about a long term contract for Rutschman. He’s been the most disappointing player on the team this season.
You obviously have not watched the Orioles or are very familiar with player values across MLB. Adley has produced a 2.7 WAR with 18 HRs and 71 RBIs so far in his All Star 3rd season.
Adley has been playing while trying to heal from a back injury. Local media has verified this.
Do you think that’s screaming lock a catcher up long term?
Adley’s fWAR is far below what it was in 2022 and 2023 — 5.6 and 5.4 respectively — and at 2.9 this year. He’s regressed pretty strongly, especially offensively, but even defensively the O’s arguably prefer McCann behind the plate. Hopefully it’s due to some nagging injury like some have suggested, but if so he should probably go on the IL for awhile. He’s been slumping at least since the All Star Break, and his season OPS is only .737, below that of Ramon Urias. Of all the players that the O’s may want to extend Adley has fallen down the list. He’ll probably turn things around, but that hasn’t happened yet. And btw I follow the Orioles every day.
He is a catcher who has been playing through injury for a team fighting to win their division. If you think a catcher not being one of team leaders in offense year in and year out is disappointing. I’ve gotta say that seems pretty unrealistic.
Yes he could ve had a better season all around. But using that as a stance for a team not to extend a 26 yr old catcher who has been one of best in game just seems foolish.
Extending catchers long term is usually foolish. He has not shown himself to be an all time elite catcher like Piazza, Rodriguez or Bench. He has three years left in his contract. Why rush into something that doesn’t need to rushed into for a good but not great player? These extensions don’t have to be given out like candy.
Nobody is saying they should be trying this moment to extend him for 10 years. But dismissing an extension right now is foolish as well. He’s under team control through 2028. That said If they do wish to extend him this offseason or next is probably the window If they want any real discount of free agent seasons.
Nobody is saying that he is a top 5 catcher All Time. A player does not have to be Piazza, Pudge, or Bench to be extended.
Point is Adley had a bit of a down year, yes. But he has played through injury and his team is contending to win division and has eye on making noise in the playoffs. Deeming him the most disappointing player on the team as he had is just laughable. As is comparing offensive production of a catcher to that of an IF. And nitpicking to do so.
For whatever reason Niched seems to have some odd disdain for Adley or he’s just trolling.
Not trolling at all. Go over to the Orioleshangout boards and you’ll see many expressing the same opinion as mine. The point is there is absolutely no rush to extend Adley at all. There’s not necessarily a fear he’ll turn into Matt Wieters, but there was every reason to hope for a big performance from him this season that has not happened at all.
I can understand expectations are very high this year. But I’d love to have him and his production on Tigers this year.
As far as extending him, I’d say it’s next 2 off seasons for any realistic savings on early extension. I get with catchers extensions cam be risky. But I think the Weiters comparisons might be a bit premature.
What’s your point, Lefty? Enjoy the next 4-6 weeks. Then he’s gone.
I guess you are not an Austin Powers fan
Apparently no one is here
Except for Gwynning
“Yeah that’s it, you show that turd who’s boss!”
Exactly and a courtesy flush
Lefty – O’s behave!
Yo Lefty.. Imagine ur watching the O’s game. What did u think of O’s trying to get the fan interference call on the obvious 10yo kid?
Hahaha
I didn’t think Hyde should have challenged..I got booed
Lefty, If Burnes is #2, then you are #6.
See if you get that reference.
Lol Fevah
Patrick McGoohan……although, i never did watch the Prisoner
Actually, I tried to this morning, but Verizon does not have it
Good thing because he’s been getting lit up lately. His career progression is heading downhill. Someone is going to make a big mistake given him a long term deal. Hope it’s not the Mets.
The Mets will sign Burnes, they need an Ace plus they have over $100 mill, coming off the books
Senga is an ace when healthy. I wouldn’t sign any of these starters to lengthy deals. If one falls like Snell did on a short term deal then jump on it. They have young starters on the cusp in the minors. The Japanese pitcher could be the exception.
These should be mention on #3 that Bregman is almost certainly on track for an off-season procedure to remove “gremlins” running amok in his elbow.
Make a small elbow incision and stick an arthroscopic flashlight inside. No eating after midnight for Bregman until then. Easy peasy.
And for the love of God, don’t give Breggy any water!
Gwynn – And don’t let him play day games unless it’s indoors!
That’s enough, Gwynning
Only Bregman would say something as funny as that
He reminds me of Scott from Kentucky ballistics
Snell definitely should have been number 3. He’s very up and down but if you get his peak performance that’s a playoff difference maker. Outside of those top 3 there’s a pretty big drop.
I always enjoy these lists. I think Adames is a bit too high. Fried is a bit too low. Fried has been darn good and very consistent. One of the most underrated players in the game perhaps.
Hurt a lot though
Only 21 pitchers have pitched more innings since 2019. And out of those 21 only 5 have a better ERA
Cole
Burnes
Wheeler
Gausman
Webb
And i think he’s younger than all those guys except Webb and maybe Burnes I believe him and Burnes are about the same age.
He’s a darn good player.
He’s hurt about once a year. In general the injuries have been very minor (except 2023). Even that was somewhat extra precaution as the Braves hardly needed him in regular season. He gives you, generally 160 innings or so. I’ll take it. Many times he’s merely had blister issues. It’s plagued him his whole career.
I will say it again. 21 guys have pitched more innings since 2019.
I’m agreeing with you.
Yeah I misunderstood my bad
Snell to the Dodgers.
Are you Dave Vassegh with a funny handle?
Juan Soto isn’t a FA! He just needs a new deal with the Yankees!
1b/20 yr deal. Get it done now Yankees.
Justin Verlander will end his career winning a WS for the tigers. He will join skubal,mize,Olson,Kobe in 2025 for the best rotation in mlb
Would love to see JV finish his career in DET. Jobe probably won’t be up til 2026. He’s yet to pitch above AA. Skubal, Mize, and Olson are an excellent young core.
As for Mize, I’m not very optimistic. Scouts, analysts, and even Pedro Martinez have warned of his mechanics and they done seem to have changed much. If he does eventually get mechanics to a point there’s less stress on arm the question is will that have a negative effect on his performance. I’m of the belief that harsh movement in the elbow is allowing many pitchers to get a ton of extra movement.
A boy can dream…
I don’t think JV returning to DET is very far fetched. He seems to have an eye on his place historically in the game. Sadly that place doesn’t look like it ll include the 300 win club.
With the Tigers seemingly ready to take another step forward with all the young talent it also looks enticing from a competitive perspective. Whereas HOU looks like at minimum a reboot is in store.
I’d love to see it, but the Tigers are not likely to pay top dollar. Verlander is all about the money. Look for the rebound candidate coming to Detroit, or Harris going after Boyd again. Much more economical.
Yeah I’d only want to see JV at much less than what he’s making this season. I like the idea of bringing Boyd back at the right price. With all the Non Profit work he and his wife do on Metro Detroit would have to think that he would want to return.
No team should again pay JV what he is making this season. I’m happy to see him continue to pitch, and it would be great if he signed on with the Tigers, but he’s likely never pitching more than 25 games again, if that. He’ll probably take $20 million to do that, which is still an overpay for what he’s currently capable of doing.
If JV were to announce it was his final season, $20M would be palatable for DET. He’d generate much more than that in revenue for all of his home starts. Anything over that would be kind of tough to justify I’d say.
It’s funny the speculation in detail on the supposed Snell and Yankee contract and then when the Soto Nationals supposed contract everyone forgets that it was turned down due to the massive amount of deferrals and incentives built into it. 14/440 sounds great until you look at the details. Supposedly the deferrals and incentives took the contract down to like 28M AAV or something like that.
Great point on the deferrals. Many look at the inflated # and do not consider the time value of $ and lost accrued $ on the deferred principal. In Soto’s case that AAV now in hindsight would be much much lower due to what has ensued economically since.
Nats were one of the first teams I heard of using huge deferrals. Strasburg, Max etc.. Aside from the famous Bonilla contract
Bruce Sutter and Darryl Strawberry in 1985 I believe were the first to have deferred money in their contracts.
Bonilla’s just has become the most famous. His was not actually a deferred contract either. Mets bought out $5.9M to get out of his contract and that was agreed to be paid out in the famous deferrals. Had it not been for the $ being invested with Maddoff it would have likely saved the Mets $ in the grand scheme of things.
Oddly one of signings that can be attributed to those savings was Mike Hampton whose departure gave Mets a compensatory pick which would become David Wright. Kind of crazy how it all played out.
I’m stunned that Fried isn’t higher on this list.
@Snitker: Two years in a row on the IL w/”forearm tightness” is a big reason why. As a Braves fan, I believe that Fried’s skill set will age well. His barely below average K rate isn’t concerning because of his above average ability to induce soft contact. He’s had one TJS, so it seems reasonable for teams to have concerns about his elbow health given the injury problems over the last 2 seasons.
Yep, good points
Injury history
I think aside from Soto, burnes and Snell free agent contracts will be somewhat down this off season and under the 100 million range
I don’t see Alonso or Walker signing for less than $100M and possibly Santander. I’m most curious about what Profar will get.
I think only alonso will eclipse $100m of those three
Walker’s #s aren’t very far off from Alonso. Walker will be 34 next season, so I see him getting a few longer lower AAV offers that push him over $100M. Santander I don’t think is worth $100M deal, but he’s got hot at right time. I’m sure teams will also factor in his #s benefitted from the lineup he’s in.
Think Alonso ends up sub 100m due to shackling himself to Boras, who will promote him as some superstar, worthy of (guessing) 200m+ player, rather than 1 dimensional slugger, limited to 1b/DH
Alonso I definitely the odds on favourite to hold out into spring training next year in my opinion
Yeah I’m sure Boras whose agency represents most players and has secured largest deals ever in the sport, doesn’t know how to market or value his clients….
I’m sure like anything some players in hindsight he and the player wish they would have taken deals that were passed or waited longer on others.
As far as last year I believe it was just a unique group of players. Bellinger clearly is a unique case. Snell is as well for a dominant pitcher who has won multiple Cy Youngs. Rarely do you see that type of pitcher have the inconsistencies he has had by year. Chapman, glove first 3B in a market that pays premium primarily for offense.
Then finally Monty who has put up some excellent #s but just really isn’t an Ace. His type of #s generally secure larger deals, but I can see why teams passed. I think teams like BOS, TOR, etc after missing on Ohrani or Yamamoto opted to wait til this coming offseason with a handful of true Aces.
What makes you think he ll hold off til then? He’s going to be just behind Soto setting the market. It’s the next few then generally hold out. For 1B that would be Walker, if teams missing on Alonso shift to Walker he’s going to be looking at smaller deals and likely shorter due to age and stats being a little behind. That’s what leads to playing the long game and hoping teams start to get ancie and up offers.
Im thinking bc walker will be 34 is why he’ll get a 3 year deal, 4 max, which is why i dont see him over 100m. Alonso will prob end up in a 5-6yr 125-150 deal unless boras makes him hold out for more which wouldnt be wise imo.
I guess it depends on demand for 1B and RH power. I absolutely see why teams would prefer 3-4 yr deals. I see Walker looking for 4-6 yrs. $90M with option yrs on a 4 year higher AAV seems like a good want for him. For 5 years $100M even would seem right. I don’t see any team going over 4 tho.
Breaking it down I agree it ll be tough for Walker to get $100M. Just at quick glance he seems like a $100M player. His age tho makes that really tough.
History. Teams aren’t giving up mega deals to 1st baseman anymore. One thing in his favour is the Mets have the most money. Boras is going to want to reset market. Alonso doesn’t exactly look like he’s going to age well so I can see why teams wouldn’t be lining up to sign him for 7 years. QO attached.
I like Walker a lot, but yeah, 1b at that age tend to drop off quickly
Walker is 34 and not getting more than 3 yrs!
After the Boras 4 all took shorter term opt out deals late in free agency, outside of Soto and Burnes, I’m betting that teams wait them out again this year and hope for the same results.
Boras is going to complain about teams using tha3 last tax appron as a salary cap this year. He didn’t really stomp his feet last year so that’s always in his playbook complain about rules he knows are there for years. So many teams are close to it or have gone over with only a few have reset. Blue jays have reset I believe.
@That When has he complained of it? I’m not trying to defend him here, but I’m just curious for some examples.
As for teams going over and not resetting, the rules have progressively gotten steeper. I think we ll see many more teams strategically resetting in the years to come. As far as how often, I think that’s hard to even guess right now. Franchises need to wait for some stability as far as the TV and streaming deals and set budgets accordingly.
Personally I think they either have to make the penalties a bit harsher if they truly want a deterrent. This current system just looks to hamstring teams in the future. The Mets possibly could have a blueprint tho. I’m curious to see how it plays out in next few years. They look ready to duck under tax threshold and reset just as farm system will be putting talent to MLB level. The rest of big market teams just seem to be taking a worry about it later approach.
When does he complain every offseason
Thanks for the detailed examples…
It’s nearly impossible to reset and stay competitive. You have to shed a bunch of salary and let young guys play important roles.its hard to do because normally the farm is gutted to bring in talent for playoff drives, generally teams that make deep runs year after year have bottom 3rd farms. And when you keep going over the tax you lose draft money making it even harder to find cheap controllable talent.
This is why spending to the tax before you even make the playoffs is foolish. Playoff runs are expensive means your players played well and are due raises and you just prematurely closed your competitive window. Mets fell for this and Texas got lucky for a couple weeks and won the World Series.
Mets actually did not fall for it they signed expensive older players such as JV and Scherzer to shorter higher AAV deals. So that money will be coming off the books right when other $ starts coming off.
The Mets kept the farm intact signing those type of players opposed to trades. They in turn traded players and ate big portions to strengthen the returns.
Now I don’t see many other teams willing to spend the type of $ to do that type of expedited flip. I just don’t see this luxury tax system lasting long at least in its current form.
Texas won their Div over HOU swept WC and ALDS. They then topped HOU again in ALCS before winning World Series. I’d say it was a bit more than getting lucky for a couple weeks.
Article aka. List of players who will not be in Cleveland next year
Spending doesn’t equal winning.
Cleveland hopefuls are very glad Bieber not on this list, not even an h.m. So I’m saying there’s a chance…
Soto shouldn’t be on the list at all, let alone #1.
Soto is passable in RF at Yankee stadium. Not so much elsewhere.
Could be an interesting off season. Glad I’m not a GM. I couldn’t see myself buying in on most of these. at the price point they would want.. If I’m going to spend 40M it would be of three or four players not one.
I’ll take one Soto, Adams or Kim, Snell or Flaherty, Manea, and Chspman please.
SP: Glasnow, Snell/Flaherty, Yamamoto, Ohtani, Kershaw, Stone
SP depth: Miller, May, Gonsolin, Knack,Sheehan, Frasso
C: Smith, ???
IF: Freeman, Lux, Adames, Chapman, Rojas, Taylor
OF: Soto, Edman, Betts, ???
DH: Ohtani
Interesting how our perceptions of strikeouts has changed. A 20% rate is considered good. Santander struck out 152 times last year in 153 games.
Baseball has learned that K’s are far better than weak contact for the hitting team. They just don’t care, within reason.
Unfortunately they apply that thinking to all situations which isn’t smart at all.
Teams tend to ignore that some of the weakest contact in 2023 was the batting champ. Sometimes hitting smart is better than hitting hard outs.
Soto really seems like the only guy worth getting excited about here. Expect another loooooooooooong off-season of owners not wanting to break the bank for some slightly above average 30 year old players.
“He should top half a billion dollars and it wouldn’t be surprising …. close to or north of $600MM ”
Soto is a DH. That’s realistically where a team wants him. No team is going to commit this kind of money to a DH. Front offices and owners – owners are the most important – will remember Pujols (who was NOT a DH ). Soto is a $400 million until he retires guy at best.
We will all see great discipline by the Yankees and the Dodgers obviously have no place for a DH. It only takes one but Arte Moreno doesn’t go for a Soto.
Washington could be a landing spot for Soto.
HotF
“Front offices and owners – owners are the most important – will remember Pujols (who was NOT a DH ).”
But will they remember that Soto is NOT Pujols?
“He should top half a billion dollars and it wouldn’t be surprising …. close to or north of $600MM ”
This is where it would be better to report Present Value. $400 million can be more than $600 million depending on how it’s paid out. Present value is the number that matters, not total contact value
Soto’s age combined with his all-world skill set at the plate are the largest factors as to why he will probably get $500MM plus. He probably will get a 15 year contract, and I’m assuming he gets $35MM per for CBT purposes. This equates to $525MM total. I think this is the ballpark number that we see him sign at, but it could be more with a higher annual #.
I think 40m+ AAV is going to be very important for Soto. I don’t see him signing a deal for a lower AAV. I’d guess 12/525m with no deferrals.
Nobody giving Soto 15 yrs
“Soto is a DH”…If he’s not already(debatable)he certainly will be in 2-3 yrs, especially if he gains weight as he ages, like many guys do.
Front offices, and owners, are not smart and seldom learn from mistakes.
Yes they have. That explains last winter and the “Boras Four”.
Who is the market for Willy Adames? No way is he that high.
Top ten shortstop in baseball, maybe top 5? Yeah there’s a market. Start with the Dodgers and Giants.
The Dodgers wouldn’t sign Seager or Turner. You think he’s their long term signing for short?
Not even close
Witt, Henderson, Lindor, Seager, Turner, Elly, Tavares, Wynn are all drastically better than him. There are a lot of young shortstops that are preferred. There are another 5-10 young premier top end shortstops about to make their major league debuts.
That depends on what you value in a SS. Obviously, you are ranking for a fantasy team, and not weighting much for defense. Lindor seems to be the only true defensively elite SS on the list.
@Mets6986??: Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Braves in on Adames. They have no minor league options at the position. If Fried and Morton are both gone the Braves might try to upgrade over Arcia. They have plenty of young, cheap pitching, so they don’t necessarily have to go after an expensive FA replacement for the rotation.
The Braves have a high payroll. No way they are signing a player like him to a long term contract. They wouldn’t have let Dansby walk out the door if that was the case.
@Mets: You missed the “if Fried and Morton are both gone” in my comment. That’s $36M in salary freed up. They may not re-sign AJ Minter—-another $6.2M. Declining Aaron Bummer’s $7.25M option for 2025 is also a possibility. The Braves have plenty of room to sign any FA they target. They could have re-signed Swanson. AA has made it clear the luxury tax doesn’t impede them from acquisitions. They set a price they wanted to pay for Swanson. The Cubs went over the Braves offer by $70M. Deciding that a player isn’t worth what another club will pay him doesn’t mean the Braves can’t sign a player because “they have a high payroll.”
So do you think the Braves would not replace them with anyone at all? They would still need to spend money for 2 starting pitching holes and a bullpen hole. Not to mention other moves. Don’t see them spending close to 200 mil on a mid tier shortstop. If the market falls to them and he signs a short term contract then yes they could be all in but then he’s not #4 on the board like I’m saying.
@Mets6986??: Didn’t say the Braves “would not replace them at all” either. I think the Braves will lower their payroll by promoting their top prospect pitchers into rotation roles. They have several young arms that will cost minimum salary over the next several years. AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Lucas Braun, and Drue Hackenburg will be the primary 2025 rotation options. Ian Anderson is another possibility because he’s recovered from his TJS. The Braves might sign a cheap vet as insurance to fill out the rotation, but they won’t spend much on a FA pitcher. Good mil arms to fill pen spots as well—Daysbel Hernandez, Hayden Harris, and Brooks Wilson are the most likely to fill a pen spot. I don’t think Adames should be the #4 on the board either, but the FA class (after Soto) is fairly mediocre next year.
Alonso will be the funniest one.A bad built,bad defensive 1b, that is a one track poney.His stats have gone down every year, and this isn’t 2006 where some teams are ignorant. I don’t see him getting 90 million. A triple A 1b can give you 2/3 the home runs for 5 percent of the price
if he debuted in a diff year, there wouldn’t be so much hype. but he still can be a .240-.250 35-40hr guy.
He will never have that “high” a BA. Plus, lots of Ks, and no value at defense nor speed.
Alonso is not a bad 1b. He is one of the better in the league. Repeating this nonsense is ridiculous. He is not a one trick pony.
Stats say otherwise,homer
Stats don’t say otherwise Einstein. Last year he was rated the 7th best fielding first baseman and this year he is 6th. Keep repeating crap because it sounds good.
7th best? Yeah sure. Maybe 7th cutest
@Thefrogsaregey
Anyone who claims Alonso’s a poor first baseman doesn’t know what he or she is talking about. And that includes MLB Trade Rumors. He gets the job done and is excellent around the bag, scooping throws, stretching and holding the bag on bad throws, and using the right footwork to get outs on complicated plays.
Just because you can say stupid things doesn’t mean you should.
“He is not a one trick pony”…I won’t insult Pete Alonso, who by all accounts is a decent guy, by calling him a “pony”. But, I will say that 85% of his value is centered on 40 of the swings he’ll take this and next year. I’d certainly offer Pete 4/$75M(sells some tickets), but I don’t believe his body type will age well.
@@mlb fan
40 swings?
You have it wrong.
It’s the threat that he is on every pitch thrown.
Soto is a great hitter and I love seeing him just trying to get a hit and not a HR every at bat. but certainly I think he is seeing better pitches with Judge behind him. You can see a big discrepancy his last yr in WSH with the AAA lineup. He still deserves a great contract and from what I’ve seen, he has a great attitude and is kinda similar to Beltre, who is one of the funniest ball players to watch. he just loved the game and brought so much enjoyment most of the time.
Flaherty at 100+ million seems a little too high. Great when he’s on his game though
In regard to Soto
I can think of other superstars with big contracts that turned out to be busts
Stratsburg
Rondon
And many others that were not pretty for the finals years
Trout
miguel cabrera
The list is long but I just posted the highlights
Very few long term contract for big bucks were pretty in the end
I would prefer Soto signed a big contract away from the yanks and watch him be miserable like Robbie Cano when he chose only money
Soto will very much miss hitting in front of Judge
Cm
“Very few long term contract for big bucks were pretty in the end”
Fans love to dwell on this while ignoring the massive discount teams get in the early part of the contacts.
Intelligent fans dwell on it because they want their team to have sustained success every year into the contract. The team doesn’t owe the player anything because they performed well early in their career you’re paying someone for what they’re going to do. What they did is in the past irrelevant now
ThIT
“Intelligent fans dwell on it because they want their team to have sustained success every year into the contract.”
No reason to limit wanting sustained success to intelligent fans
“The team doesn’t owe the player anything because they performed well early in their career you’re paying someone for what they’re going to do. What they did is in the past irrelevant now”
You missed the point
For the vast majority of players they don’t reach free agency until their primes. Thus, teams have two choices when signing free agents
1) Pay short-term high-AAV deals
2) Pay longer term low AAV deals
Teams often prefer the second so they can afford to pay more talent around the prime years of the player in question.
As such, the player is “underpaid” early in the free agent contract and “overpaid” later in the contract.
Again, Fans love to harp on the second part while ignoring the first part.
I didn’t miss the point.
ThIT
“The team doesn’t owe the player anything because they performed well early in their career you’re paying someone for what they’re going to do. What they did is in the past irrelevant now”
It very much appears that you did
Not much discount in the early years of a FA contract. In the first six years, obviously, but that was likely for another team. Soto is at $31mm this year, and will likely start with more next year. It balances out for the player, but the signing team gets screwed, more often than not. Very few FA contracts work out like Scherzer’s with Washington.
Stymee
“Not much discount in the early years of a FA contract.”
With a month left in the season
Soto has produced $60 million in value this year.
Judge is at $79 million
Ohtani at $52 million
They are all massively underpaid.
Alonso would look great in a Red Sox uniform if he could only play second base. Oh well.
He barely gets by at first base. Dream on.
All these lines on my face gettin’ clearer.
If Devers can play 3B, Alonso should be fine at 2B.
Honestly, I think that past Soto, this FA class is kinda light in top end talent.
After the top 2 this is not a very good FA class. Lots of holes in their games, yet they will get gazzilions!
Nope, I can’t let it go. I hope Bregman gets embarrassed in FA.
Cheaters shouldn’t prosper. Most of the others have so he will too probably though.
I wonder if the Yankees wil bid against themselves of let Soto walk to LA for 1 billion deferred over 50 years?
No wonder eggs went from $.59 to $2.39…..
Admittedly a Braves fan. Max Fried should be 3rd. Way too low. The numbers are inflated because he came off dl with no rehab starts. And 2 horrible innings at seasons beginning. Bregman and Adames are 2 contracts I’ll want nothing to do with. Most of the year Fried has pitched like an ace. Obviously only underrated because he doesn’t strike more out. He could. He wants quick outs. He knows how to pitch. Old school pitcher. Give me Snell over the 2 I mentioned as well. Tho I’ll likely regret that deal too.
I get that he’s been hurt some. I can’t not mention that. I think, having followed Max’s career closely, that’s partially him always letting the trainers know if he feels different (unlike Strider) and not wanting to risk another tj, especially with free agency approaching. His injury this year was nothing. He was throwing a few days later.
“600/12 yrs”..Guys like you and the media are the only ones who think Soto is worth that much. He’s clearly a great hitter, but didn’t move the needle in S.D much(they sell out with or without him). In fact they’re doing much better this season in the standings without Soto.
I can’t see a great hitter but average(or below)everywhere else player getting even close to $600M. He only hits in front of Judge in N.Y and nowhere else.
There’s only 1-3 teams(in my opinion)that want to swim in these inflated waters and that won’t be enough to start a bidding war. My guess is he won’t top $450M since he’s essentially a great hitting DH who doesn’t bring in “Ohtani” type revenues(or casual fans).
“a bit naive”..I don’t think so at all. $450M would be the largest guarantee ever for a position only baseball player. I just don’t see enough demand since Soto’s out of the price range of 80% of teams and the few teams in play already have their own cap issues(CBT tax). I just cannot see a team giving Soto $600M and then paying an additional tax on top of that.
The Anaheim Angels have proven with Ohtani, Trout and Rendon that there comes a point, when if you devote too much much salary to one or two players, it becomes counterproductive and detracts from other weaknesses on your team. It’s just one man’s opinion and eventually we will both see how it plays out.
mlbf
“My guess is he won’t top $450M”
Total contract value? Not present value?
He will demolish $450 million
It’s a stretch to say that San Diego is doing better without him *because he is not on the team. Preller did a heck of a job revamping the team’s pitching, and Machado seems to finally be acting like an adult. Last year was a bit of an anomaly with all the one-run losses they had. I doubt you could find anyone who would say that they would not be better with Soto again this year. He’s obviously greatly helped the Yankees.
The Mets will sign Soto and Burnes , they have over $120 mill coming off the books, maybe resign Manaea and Severino or sign Fried
How are you THIS incompetent, Steve Adams? “Excellent as his production has been this season” is NOT PROPER ENGLISH. You can’t just leave “as” out to start a sentence and ignore basic grammar rules because you feel like it. It’s not optional and a “professional” writer would know this. Plus, there should never be a comma before “too” in the fashion it was used about Santander.
Get rid of this hack, MLBTR.
Faith in humanity restored [insert middle finger]
Thanks MLBTR for the free content and bringing out all of the dingleberries. Cheap entertainment!
There’s plenty of free content online that adheres to basic grammar. These guys are just hacks. But if you think that pointing out obvious errors makes me a “dingleberry,” I don’t give a flying you-know-what. You sound like a third grade bully with that one and you probably peaked in high school, if not earlier.
No one is forcing you to read the articles, and no one asked you to critique the writing skills. If it bothers you, go elsewhere for your articles. Now if you wish to comment on the topic of the “poorly” written article, then we can critique your shortcomings.
No one is forcing you to reply to my comments either. Readers should be free to comment and critique writing on a site. If you don’t believe in this, maybe try Russia. Also, I can read wherever I please, thank you very much. Weird that you’re trying to make this about me.
@MLBTR needs to hire editors: It seems that you conveniently ignore your own incorrect comma usage, bad grammar, and poor sentence construction. How many times have you lambasted writers here for starting sentences w/the words “But” and “Also?” How about “Try Russia if you don’t believe in this.” and “I can read wherever I please. Thank you very much.”
There is nothing wrong with the comma usage, syntax, or grammar above. A comma should be after “also,” not “but.” Plus, you have two sentences that are bordering closely fragments, then another without a subject: “this.” Nice try, weirdo.