The Rangers entered the 2024 season looking like a potential juggernaut. Not only was the club coming off a World Series championship in 2023, but they were looking forward to the rookie campaigns of top prospects Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, which were widely expected to further bolster an excellent lineup anchored by 2023 AL MVP runner-up Corey Seager, third-place finisher Marcus Semien, and ALCS MVP Adolis Garcia. On the pitching side, the club had added a pair of back-end relievers to their shaky bullpen in the form of David Robertson and Kirby Yates.
While their rotation wouldn’t be at full strength entering the year, the promise of midseason reinforcements in the form of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle was more than enough to inspire confidence that Texas was on the right trajectory to return to the postseason and defend the first World Series title in franchise history. Projection systems felt similarly: PECOTA at Baseball Prospectus gave the Rangers strong playoff odds of 55.4% in their preseason projections. Those playoff odds have fallen to just 14.6% entering play today, however, and it’s not hard to see why.
Carter and Langford have both struggled to below average slash lines in their rookie seasons and have each spent time on the injured list this year. They were joined by young third baseman Josh Jung on the injured list, as the 26-year-old has made it into just four games this season amid a number of setbacks as he works his way back from an early-season wrist fracture. In addition to those youngsters not provided the offensive impact expected from them headed into the season, the club’s core hitters have also taken steps back after strong 2023 campaigns. Semien (90 wRC+) and Garcia (91 wRC+) have both been around 10% worse than league average at the plate this year after big seasons last year, while Seager’s 122 wRC+ is well above average but a far cry from the 6.1 fWAR campaign he posted last year that saw him finish second to only Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting.
The club has similarly struggled to get the most out of its role players. Utility bat Ezequiel Duran was an above-average hitter in 2023 but crashed back down to Earth this year, slashing just .256/.294/.324 (74 wRC+) before being optioned to the minors in late June. Catcher Jonah Heim as struggled similarly, with a 76 wRC+ just one year after pairing his Gold Glove defense behind the plate with an above average slash line. The one bright spot offensively has been infielder Josh Smith, who has broken out in a big way and slashed .293/.386/.451 (139 wRC+) as the club’s regular third baseman in Jung’s absence.
All those offensive woes have added up to a 41-48 record for the Rangers, and things get all the more worrisome when you consider the fact that they’ve won just 25 of their 59 games since May 1. The club’s .424 winning percentage over that span is roughly on par with the record the Angels have posted this year. Between the pronounced struggles at the plate this year and their familiar struggles in the bullpen (their relievers’ 4.46 ERA is second-worst among all AL clubs), Rangers brass have been left in the uncomfortable situation of having to seriously consider a sell-off just months after parading through Dallas in celebration of championship.
The club certainly has pieces to sell if that’s the route they choose to take. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier this morning that rival GMs “expect” the Rangers to make several notable pitchers on expiring contracts available. That group is led by Scherzer but also includes Robertson, Yates, Andrew Heaney, and Michael Lorenzen. Each of those arms would surely receive plenty of interest on a trade market that’s facing a relative dearth of quality pitching options, particularly when looking at rental starting pitching. Each of Scherzer, Heaney, and Lorenzen would fall into that latter category, while Robertson has been dealt at each of the past two trade deadlines. Yates could be among the most coveted relievers dealt this summer if the Rangers were to decide to move him given his eye-popping 0.86 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, and history as an All-Star caliber closer who led the majors with 41 saves back in 2019.
With so many interesting pieces to sell and the club falling further behind the Mariners and Astros in the AL West by the day, it’s easy to make the argument that the team ought to pull the plug on 2024 and start focusing on the future, when Seager will be joined in the lineup by a healthy Jung and the club’s pair of rookies in the outfield will have another year of development under their belts. Appealing as that might seem from an outside perspective, however, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News noted this morning that GM Chris Young made clear to reporters yesterday that the club has not yet decided on a path for the trade deadline, and is still open to the possibility the club plays their way back into contention.
“I believe in this team,” Young said, as relayed by Grant. “I believe they are capable of a run. We just have to put ourselves in a better position so that nothing is insurmountable. This team had a 40-20 run last year. It’s in there.”
There’s certainly reasons for the Rangers to hold out hope the club can fight their way back into contention this year. Semien will celebrate his 34th birthday in September, and as he enters his mid-30’s it’s fair to wonder if this year’s meager .232/.296/.383 slash line is closer to what he’ll produce going forward than last year’s more impressive .276/.348/.478 line. 31-year-old Garcia and 30-year-old Seager are both younger than Semien but also now on the wrong side of 30, and that’s not to mention the uncertainty surrounding 36-year-old deGrom and his checkered injury history. Semien, Seager, and deGrom are due a combined $98.5MM in 2025. With so much money tied up in that trio and key pieces like Scherzer and Eovaldi on the verge of free agency, it’s fair to wonder if this year may be the club’s best shot at another postseason run with their current group.
With just over three weeks remaining until the trade deadline on July 30, how will the Rangers proceed? Have your say in the poll below:
So..the Rangers, are potential sellers, seeing that the Astros and Mariners are pulling ahead..even though both have lost critical bats in the last 48 hours….I think someone should have said “Hey, hold this article for 3 more days”
Who are you taking about, Tucker? They have been playing without him for a month? Altuve? He pinch hit yesterday and is playing today. Yordan? He will play in a day or so. Rangers should soft sell (all their FA).
I’m not sure any Mariners hitter qualifies as a “critical bat”…
Astros are so hot right now I don’t think losing altuve for a few days would hurt
Mariners have lost no one, because Julio has not done anything so far so he will get replaced by either a nobody in the minors or a surprise (I want to see Cade Marlowe again!)
Uhh…
Julio is not going to be replaced lol. Get some fresh air and sun my dude!
I’m sorry I didn’t mean actually replaced I was talking about a possible IL stint
Pulling ahead. The Rangers have gained two games on them the last two days. The line up is waking up and they should be worried.
Nah the Rangers will stand pat and just see if things turn around. Selling at this point doesn’t really make much sense, though the prospects are tempting its not like you are going to get the moon for a handful of rental veterans. The article doesn’t do a very good job of suppliying context, Carter has just been hurt and trying to play through a back injury and Langford has had a .900+ ops since coming back from his injury, they are fine. Jung just needs some luck to stay on the dang field.
“Jung just needs some luck to stay on the dang field.”
In other words, a lick and a promise.
Considering that every player in MLB needs luck to succeed, you’re saying nothing.
whats your address you seem like someone that I’d love to have at a party
I have more fun parties to attend and other things to do than to darken your doorway.
I don’t think they’ll be selling.
Another team hurt by Manfredball.
How?
I know CY is new but Rangers’ brass need to seriously evaluate their player development department. Particularly in pitching. Relying on FA or trades for pitching isn’t sustainable. It’s been atrocious for a long time. For years they haven’t been able find a few good home grown arms for their BP nevertheless starting rotation. Not a single one of their 8 SP’s were drafted by Rangers or came up through minors. Their best BP arms (Yates & Robinson) were through FA. That should be embarrassing.
Taveras, Jung, Carter and Langford are their only drafted position starters and Taveras’ ceiling seems to be 9 hole.
We’ve been saying they should have fired Kip Fagg years ago, pretty much everyone knows what you are saying is true. Newer results have been encouraging though, Bradford and Ragans have been pretty good.
Ragans proves how incompetent Rangers’ developmental program is. Royals made one tweak, I think to his slider, and he became a TOR starter almost overnight. Rangers did not view him as TOR starter.
don’t rub salt in the wounds of these ranger fans 🙁 🙁 🙁
Nope he was starting to figure it out his last year with us too. Added a bunch of fastball velocity the spring before the trade and his changeup was always good. Still glad we traded him, flags fly forever
With TEX :
April ERA 6.19
May ERA 5.22
June ERA 8.10
Was sent down to minors then traded
With KC :
July ERA 1.80
Aug ERA 1.72
Sept ERA 3.90
He came out of the bullpen for us, didn’t even make a start I don’t think. No question you guys helped him get it figured out, but he was on his way before that. Pitching for a contending team out of a bullpen vs making starts for the worst team in baseball is a different animal.
It’s even more impressive that Ragans did so well with a bad team, so you are missing the point.
Admit that the Rangers made a mistake there. You’ll feel better….
the Rangers made a trade and won a world series… I would do that 100 other times out of 100. No mistakes were made on either side
I don’t follow the Rangers closely enough to know their farm system, but did Young acquire FA arms to buy the team some time while he drafted and developed home grown arms? If so, a strategy like that would take 3-5 years to start paying dividends. Again, I don’t follow the Rangers closely so I have no idea what Youngs long term vision has been for the team since he took over.
Sure, but Rangers already had 6 bad years before winning WS last year. He bought arms cause there wasn’t any in the pipeline. There should be more than what they had after 6 bad years.
Leiter finally showed improvement this year but isn’t exactly showing he’s top 3 pick worthy yet. Buying 3-5 years of time after just going through 6 rough years proves their entire scouting and development program needs an overhaul.
“Only” four drafted and homegrown regulars lol. I can appreciate that the outcome with ragans stings for rangers fans but it’s an extreme outlier case when compared to other, similar trades of a flyer arm for a rental piece. This is far from a damning indictment on the rangers’ dev and scouting people.
Yes. Add them to Detroit, Toronto, A’s, Angels, White Sox in the AL and Colorado and Miami in the NL.
Jury is still out on Tampa, Cubs, Mets and possibly San Fran.
Scherzer to the Cardinals is written in the stars. Neither is much good but just good enough for it to happen, and it will sell a few replica jerseys
I’ve always thought scherzer would look good in a cardinals uniform he’s always been rumored there
Absolutely not selling. They don’t have much to trade away and have a lot of high caliber talent coming back soon. Probably will add a cheap piece or two but no big acquisition.
Not that they’ll bring much back, but Eovaldi and Lorenzen should be offered.
Eovaldi has a vesting option for 25′ that is probably going to vest. He would be cost alot, good pitcher.
I think they’ll do a partial sale, preparing for a reload. By that, I mean they’ll trade away rentals or any low-level player for whom they expect to have a capable fill-in from the minors next year. So they’ll sell more than they buy, but it’s not going to be a fire sale like the White Sox or Rockies are expected to have.
Surprised how many people are saying not selling. I think they’d need a two week tear starting right now for it not to make sense. The middling NL is full of fringe teams and will have very few sellers the market for sellers may never be higher and if in two weeks the Rangers position hasn’t dramatically changed id sell on anyone not in 25 plans and beyond. The Rangers have a bright future but due to some poor player performance and injuries maybe 24 just isn’t their year. If they can go 8-2 or maybe even 7-3 in the next ten games maybe I’d run with it but if they don’t the return this year will be high I’d sell.
No need, there really isn’t much to sell unless you think you will get a lot for Mad Max (I don’t). The division is frankly not very good this year.
I wonder why no one has thought of this and I wonder why no one has actually done this? hmm
Given the current state of the Texas Rangers, it appears likely that they will become sellers at the trade deadline. Their disappointing performance, injuries to key players, and the significant drop in playoff odds all point towards a need to re-evaluate and prepare for future seasons. Additionally, the Rangers possess several valuable trade assets in pitchers on expiring contracts who could fetch a good return from contending teams.
I can’t see the Rangers being sellers-at least at this point. If they collapse in the next few weeks sure but if they are still on the cusp of playoff contention I think they stay the course maybe even be buyers. They won the World Series last year and it’s tough to give up on the season a year later. The All Star Game is in Arlington this year and the Rangers want to put their best foot forward. They play in a brand new billion dollar stadium which they spent at least half on. Waving the white flag with 2 months to go isn’t going to attract fans. And the Mavericks were in the NBA FINALS. The Stars the Stanley Cup semifinals. The Cowboys are the Cowboys. When you are in a market with so many successful teams even a minor rebuild isn’t in the cards. Ask the New York Mets . Or the Los Angeles?( Anaheim) Angels
As a longtime Rangers fan I’m actually okay with either route. You have a good core regardless so-gas tank analogy ahead-moving some players, even the quality of Scherzer and Yates, not going to swing the needle too far into the empty nor is keeping them going to swing it to full. Maybe it’s the WS elixir talking, but I’m content with just seeing how either plays out.
Adolis would be someone who they can ship off at the deadline for a good return they have plenty of outfielders for next year
I think the Rangers can retool while selling. Playoff s are still on the table but not a sustainable run. Too many holes in the lineup. Move a future Rule 5 player with a surplus pitcher for a AA stud. Do a reset, not a sell off. Help is on the way, however, veterans need to get back to normal.
Trade for Vlad JR Texas and sell the old rentals get ready for next year
I voted NO but the question SHOULD have been “SHOULD” the Rangers sell, and that’s a huge yes.
Oh that arrogant GM. Trade and reload. You’ve got ten pitchers among your top 20 Prospects, so you’ll have plenty of trade assets. You can be back up next year.
I’m thinking maybe García should sit out the home run derby and rest to start the second half fresh for his team trying to win the ALW pennant. What’s more important? I know, zero chance of that happening. 🙂