The 54-42 Twins enter the second half of the 2024 season sitting a dozen games over .500 and in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. After falling behind both the Guardians and Royals early in the year, they’ve leapfrogged Kansas City (54-45) and sit a manageable four and a half games back of Cleveland (58-37) for the division lead. They’re lining up to act as clear buyers at the deadline, and Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that Minnesota would like to add another arm in the rotation — likely a rental.
Adding a starter who’s only controlled through season’s end is sensible for the Twins but a departure from the types of rotation arms they’ve targeted at recent trade efforts. It’s worth remembering that Twins ownership slashed payroll meaningfully this past offseason, cutting down from 2023’s mark of around $155MM to this season’s Opening Day mark of about $127.5MM. That came amid uncertainty regarding the future of the Twins’ television contract with Bally Sports, and given that the eventual resolution was a one-year deal to remain with Bally, it’s not surprising that the club might prefer to avoid committing substantial salary to the 2025 books in the form of acquiring a more controllable arm. (Although to be clear, there’s no indication ownership would be staunchly opposed to adding to the ’25 books.)
A short-term stopgap in the rotation is sensible for reasons beyond the 2025 payroll, of course. The Twins could currently use some extra innings in the back half of the rotation, where Chris Paddack has had an inconsistent season as he pushes his workload back to levels he hasn’t seen since 2019 in what is his first season back from a second career Tommy John surgery. Rookie right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson has enjoyed a breakout year but is 23 innings shy of last season’s total of 118 1/3 innings. Bringing in a veteran arm would offer some stability behind the staff-leading trio of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober.
Adding to the appeal of a rental, the Twins’ entire slate of 2024 rotation options is controlled/signed beyond the current season. Lopez is signed through 2027. Ryan and Ober are controllable via arbitration through that same year. Paddack is signed through 2025 and presumably won’t have as many workload concerns next year. Woods Richardson can’t reach free agency until the 2030-31 offseason.
The organization’s top two pitching prospects, David Festa and Zebby Matthews, are both in the upper minors and could be in the mix for starts next year as well. (Festa has already made his MLB debut in 2024, though he’s been hit hard in a pair of spot starts.) That doesn’t even include hometown righty Louie Varland, who opened the season as the Twins’ fifth starter but has fallen behind Woods Richardson and Festa on the depth chart. He’s still starting in Triple-A for now, but there’s been plenty of speculation about an eventual move to the bullpen for the former top prospect.
Hayes lists Toronto lefty Yusei Kikuchi as one name the Twins “could” target, though it’s not clear just yet whether the two parties have had any meaningful discussions about the southpaw. Kikuchi is in the final season of a three-year, $36MM contract and is widely expected to be traded, with the Jays buried by 14 games in the AL East and only sitting marginally better in the Wild Card hunt (nine and a half games out).
The 33-year-old Kikuchi has logged 106 innings of 4.42 ERA ball with a sharp 26% strikeout rate and excellent 5.8% walk rate that belie his pedestrian earned run average. After a tough first season in Toronto, he’s proven to be a solid pickup in years two and three of the deal, thanks in large part to his revamped curveball. That said, he’s hit a rough patch of late, stumbling to a 6.00 ERA in his past nine starts (45 innings). His strikeout and walk rates have remained excellent, but a longstanding issue with home runs has once again reared its head; Kikuchi has been tagged for 11 round-trippers in that time (2.2 HR/9).
Detroit’s Jack Flaherty is the most highly regarded rental arm likely to be on the market, though he’d likely command a prospect of note and the Twins might balk at sending a touted farmhand to a division rival. Washington’s Trevor Williams would be among the more clearly available rental arms on the market were it not a for a flexor strain that’s sidelined him since late May. There are a number of potential rental arms who could hit the market in the days ahead, depending on how their respective teams play. The Reds (Frankie Montas), Rangers (Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney), Pirates (Marco Gonzales, old friend Martin Perez) and Giants (Alex Cobb) are all within five games of a playoff spot but could make some sell-side moves if they fall into a losing streak coming out of the break.
Take Berrios back from us!
We would in a heartbeat
We would?
Yes we would.
Exclude me from that “we.”
Frankie Montas will be on the move. He says relax.
Is that the same Frankie that went to Hollywood?
Figures he would end up in LA…
The WC logjam means seller’s market and higher prices. Falvey has busted on most deadline buys, and Pohlad’s austerity narrows the FO’s margin of error from previous trade deadlines. Altogether, better off letting the kids play than overpaying for middling vets.
They don’t need a rent a starter they need Buxton, Lewis, Correa and crew to stay off the IL…never seen so many professional athletes get hurt so often or easily.
They still could use another starter. And unlike the magic anti injury potion you are suggesting they can do something about their rotation.
ESPN’s injury index has the Yankees, Rays, Dodgers, and Braves ahead of the Twins.
The Twins are another team that needs a top of the rotation left handed starter. Not sure there are enough of those to go around.
Would you think Julien straight up for Kikuchi would be fair?
I think that’s pretty fair. Not sure if Toronto wants Julien but I do think that’s a fair deal.
That feels like an overpay. Julien has a bunch of years of cheap control left, and if he gets back close to last years production at some point, he’d be a huge asset for a lower spending team like the Twins.
Can’t imagine they give that up for 3 months of Kikuchi.
On the other hand, if their internal assessment is that he’s a flash in the pan and will never be a major league starter again, then they could and should trade him.
Most likely, Kikuchi will only cost them one or a couple middling prospects. Don’t know the Twins system well enough to take a guess, but it wouldn’t be anyone Twins fans would miss.
A couple middling prospects isn’t going to get Kikuchi.
For the last month he’s been a #4/5 and has reverted back to his old ways. He’s hurt his trade value.
At this point, an acquiring team probably looks at him as a back rotation/bullpen arm. That still has value, of course, but his current unreliability lowers the price tag.
The Kikuchi of last year and early this year would have cost a decent return. I feel like teams now look at him as a risky proposition.
He’s most likely the best lefty starter available at the deadline. He’s going to be popular there are a lot of teams that want and need a lefty starter.
In his last 10 starts going back to May 26, he’s averaging less than 5 innings pitched per start while allowing 4 earned runs or more in 6 of the 10 starts. He’s allowed 12 HR’s in those 10 games.
He’s not currently performing at a level that justifies a bidding war.
His FIP is three quarters of a run better than his ERA. He’s not amazing but he’s still the best lefty starter available. And many contenders need a lefty starter.
I don’t know almost all of the Blue Jays on the market won’t be that valuable, especially on their own. The only saving grace is that this is a great sellers market that might drive up prices. I’m still not holding my breath for our rental for Cole Ragans deal though.
Kikuchi is a bit of a head case. He needs to get out of his own way sometimes, definitely over-thinks and over-emotes. But if you can calm his mind that ball darts all over the place and guys strike out all over the place.
Some of it is money. If the Jays paid all of Turner or Kiermaiers salary they would have some value. The Jays look like the Cardinals last year. They probably should blow it all up but they won’t. They still have some talent to trade.
Black pink, I’m not sure as many teams are concerned about their deadline pickup being LH as you are. Tyler Anderson is also clearly better than Kikuchi
Anderson is not clearly better than Kikuchi. FIP is a better stat than ERA. Kikuchis FIP is 3.68 Andersons is 4.60.
A playoff team that expects to compete for a championship would like to have 1 of their top 3 starters be a lefty. It’s not required but they would prefer it. The Orioles need a lefty. Twins need a lefty. Cardinals need a lefty. I think Padres need a lefty. Probably another team or 2 I am missing.
Also you go for velocity & K’s for the postseason and that would be Kikuchi, not Anderson who’s a soft tosser, weak contact inducer.
Minny will pony up more than a couple of middling prospects for a pitcher like Kikuchi or you can wave bye-bye while the Royals fly by…
A team trying to strengthen its pitching for the postseason would like to add the best pitcher it can, for what it’s willing to pay (players in trade and/or salary.) There usually will be bigger factors to distinguish who is the best pitcher available, or who best fits a team’s needs, than handedness.
Disagree. Teams that don’t have a lefty starter want and need a lefty starter. It matters.
The Twins have Lee and their number 5 prospect Keaschall for 2B. I think they are both ahead of Julien.
Works for me…great idea!!!
Good: The Twins looking at rental starters. Their philosophy in recent years always seemed to be, if they were going to give up value in a trade for a starter, to get multiple years of control. But that meant they had to give up more in return, and it’s seemed like they passed up some starters who were good short-term fits along the way. Glad to hear they’re looking harder at this kind of deal.
Bad: Homer-prone lefties are pretty much the worst category of pitcher to count on at their home stadium. If they’re looking at Kikuchi that should be a huge red flag.
That’s a great strategy / got us Ryan / Lopez and Gray. The whole rental thing sucks cuz you’re truly burning prospects with minimal return. In fact, if you don’t win it all – you flushed prospects for absolutely nothing. A’s are great at this!
Ryan was a different kind of situation – he was the prospect traded FOR a rental when the Twins were sellers. He hadn’t thrown a pitch in the majors at that point, so naturally he had lots of team control left.
This view of “flushing prospects” doesn’t account for how acquiring a player with more years of control means giving up more value. That was my point. Pablo LĂłpez and Sonny Gray were indeed good trades, and worth what the Twins gave up. If we’re looking at those, let’s also look at Jorge LĂłpez and Tyler Mahle—those trades stung not just because the veterans were hurt or bad, but because trading for a year-plus of them meant giving up more good players.
A team can get burned either way. The point is that sometimes trading for a rental is often less risk/variance in how much value a team gives up, while it still plugs in a useful player in the immediate term.
Mitch Keller should be the target since Pittsburgh is looking to dump salary and he’s young and more long term
He would be a good target but pricey and not a rental
I’m quite sure that Keller’s is not the salary Pittsburgh is looking to dump lol. He’s a core piece for them not a fading vet clogging up the roster or a disposable one year signing.
Would love this but did you read the article!? They are not looking to add salary beyond this season.
I always am amazed at some of the ludicrous trades suggested on this site.
The Pirates have absolutely no interest in trading Keller.
Martin Perez has pitched very well in about ten of his starts but bad in four and the Pirates would be glad to trade him for a decent low level outfielder if only to shed his remaining $2.5 M.
Twins lineup scares the hell out of me when everyone is healthy. Arguably the best lineup in the American League. If their 1 thru 9 is healthy in August/September and can find another reliable starter, they may run the table all the way to the end.
Trevor Bauer. Low risk. High reward
Bauer is high risk, high reward. His risk may not be his ability to pitch, but his impact on team image, team brand, clubhouse culture, and profits. MLB is first and foremost a business and owners want to protect their brand.
@Skeptical People said the same thing when the Chiefs signed Matt Araiza and it was only a story for a day or two.
Why do you kids keep bringing this up?
Jake Arrieta has a better chance of pitching in MLB again.
Have been watching him on YouTube and I sense he has matured a lot. He clearly loves the game as well and is willing to play for the league minimum for a chance to prove himself. We can always cut him if he is the clubhouse risk of the past when he arrives, but I think he would pay off in spades with no cost of prospect capital lost by bringing him in as a free agent rental at league minimum. He also is clearly still a student of the game and can teach our young rotational core some things about mechanics and pitching preparation. I am thankful I am called a kid at age 47. 🙂
Samuel
Where is his name on this list?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_banned_from_M…
HARD PASS
We really need a front line starter to make a run in the playoffs. Pablo has regressed some this year. Ryan and Ober are still growing and solid #3-4 type starters. We need someone who can start opposite of Gerrit Cole or Corbin Burnes who can give us a fighting chance.
Without Jack Morris in 1991 we would not have won against John Schmoltz. Bauer is not Morris but he can compete against the likes of other aces.
Go after Gonzales from the Pirates âšľ
He has pitched well in his four starts around his 60 day IL.
If I were the Pirates I would keep him unless they can get a decent near ready ML player preferably an outfielder.
They can go with a six man rotation and it does not hurt to have a veteran like Gonzalez in the mix.
See post on Martin Perez above,
Safe to say we aren’t giving the white sox a blank check for crochet. Another team will and sorry padres it won’t be you cuz you don’t have the punch to get it done.
Crochet is very good and the White Sox will get a boatload of good young players for him.
Mendoza Line 215;
Steve Adams had an article recently in which he pointed out just how ludicrous the buzz around Crochet is based on his overall record as a professional.
The man would have to have a stellar remaining 2024 as well as a stellar 2025 just to get where Mark Fidrych was before he exploded.
Why people expect the Sox to get a “haul” or a “boatload” of high-quality prospects for one pitcher – a most volatile position – with
his record is beyond me. Do posters here even begin to comprehend the amount of time, work, money, and luck that go into scouting, obtaining, and developing a quality prospect?
The Rotisserie League view of MLB that goes on here gets worse each year.
Juan Soto was an established star – and possibly superstar – for YEARS when the first the Nationals and then the Padres got a nice package for him.
This guy has pitched 180 innings in his entire 4 year career (not counting the year he was out).