Today's mailbag marks the last one before the trade deadline, and covers the likelihood of Tarik Skubal and Brent Rooker trades, what the Orioles, Padres, Tigers, and other teams might do, and much more. For further discussion of many of these topics, check out the MLBTR podcast as well.
Paul asks:
How aggressive do you see Detroit being in moving Tarik Skubal? As an O's fan I am wondering if a package centered around Basallo and some lesser guys like Norby and Stowers could get it done.
I do not expect the Tigers to trade Skubal. They've got the AL Cy Young favorite under control through 2026 at well below-market arbitration prices. In a couple of months, president of baseball operations Scott Harris will reach his two-year anniversary with the team. Trading Skubal right now seems like a bit of a surrender for 2025-26, at a point in his tenure where it seems like Harris should increasingly be pushing chips in.
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If the Tigers are only a 500 team with Skubal pitching like the best pitcher in baseball I don’t see how they are a legit contender in the next couple years if they keep him.
Basallo
Mayo
McDermott
For
Skubal
Chafin
Lange
Mayo is going nowhere.
That’s a fair offer, but it will have to be an unfair offer to actually make a trade happen. Also, Lange had surgery and is out for the rest of the year.
I didn’t realize Lange was hurt I knew him and the Tigers weren’t on good terms and he has some talent that’s why I suggested him but really he was just a throw in.
Tigers can keep Skubal and hope to contend while he’s around. That’s not what I would do. Skubals value will never ever be higher
And if the Tigers can win when he’s at his absolute best how are they ever gonna win?
Tigers have the best record in baseball so far in July. Two young hitters, Colt Keith and Justin-Henry Malloy, are pounding the ball and the rest of the team has picked up the pace. If they played like this in June, no one would be dismissing them.
You are correct that Skubal’s trade value will never be higher. However, you have to build a winning team around someone, and when it comes to pitching that is Skubal. Or, you can perpetually rebuild.
You can’t build around a guy who is only under team control through 2026. Because by the time you are done building he will be gone.
We will see what happens. Perhaps the Tigers become buyers at the deadline and go for it. So many complacent teams. Obviously the deadline is still a week away but I sure hope there are some big trades coming soon.
You are aware that Steve Carlton won 27 games for the Phillies and the team won 59 games that year. With Carlton being a member of the Phillies, he went to two world series and was a member of the team for 14 years. In today’s game, money is the driving force to make super teams elite at the expense of the low salary teams. That doesn’t help the small market teams when they trade all their good players, hoping in ten years they can compete again. The Tigers are approaching the year when they need to add a few players, NOT trade away the stars they have now. It is the fans that demand teams make other teams stronger as they become weaker, when it should be the opposite.
The Tigers haven’t had a winning season since 2016. They have had a lot of high draft picks since then. The Orioles had a similar run with a lack of success but they drafted and developed better than the Tigers have. I don’t see the Tigers contending while Skubal is around. If they do then great.
Every team has their little hot streaks and the Tigers will soon return to their normal level
Skubal isn’t moving. Tigers want to be blown away, which is fair, but the O’s have the most conservative front office in MLB. Just a bad match. I think Skubal is great, but Skubal has a history with flexor tendon surgery and is coming up on his career high in IP. He’s a Boras client as well, so the O’s aren’t trading two years of him (even if he holds up) for two of the best prospects on the planet.
If the Orioles can make small moves and still win a championship in the next few years then they will have done the right thing by not making another big trade or 2. But if they can’t win it all they will regret not making a move.
The Cubs trading Torres for a couple months of Chapman had the potential to be one of the worst trades in baseball history. But they won it all that year. And no matter what Torres did after that it didn’t matter. Flags fly forever.
Lange is out for the season.
Lange is on dl.
Tim’s assessment of Dodger assets and how they match up with partners seems on target.
Rushing is gonna get moved. I don’t think Rushng is going to be of interest to WS (Crochet) the way he will interest Harris (Skubal), so Andrew might just not be able to match up without dealing Josue. Personally, I don’t want to see DePaula moved.
I’m consistently surprised to see the ‘untouchable’ status on Salas, and the massively high prospect rating. While he was good at A last year at 17, which is very impressive, he has been awful at A+ this year and it is just a huge risk to assume he will turn into a great major leaguer if he can’t even hit at A+. I would like to see him as a centerpiece for Crochet as a Sox fan anyway.
Completely agree. Watched him a lot this year, and he seems like he’s gonna need at least 4-5 years of minor league ball to be even close to ready…and even then, it’s no sure thing. I’d 100% be willing to deal him if I were AJ…and would be happy to make him a centerpiece in a Crochet or Skubal deal.
Btw-personally, I see Preller going for another big splash, and could see him trading the farm again for Crochet AND Robert.
The Sox need position players and I think they split Robert and Crochet, but I do think the two sides had a win/win trade this year with Cease so at least there’s some good history.
Agree RD. Preller is at the end of his rope in SD unless he goes deep in the playoffs. Salas and De Vries have little value to a desperate GM. If Preller can land Robert and Crochet, those prospects seem likely to move.
I think they hold on to one or the other, but I could see something like Salas, Cronenworth, Rosario, Ornelas, and Lesko being dangled. Not sure that’d be enough for both, but two top prospects, 2 starting caliber infielders, and a borderline ready outfielder seems about right to me..with maybe a couple of low level guys also being thrown in.
I don’t see the padres going after Roberts. I think crochet is also unlikely.
Simm- They need OF/DH help BADLY..and we know AJ likes shiny things. Could totally see him doing it in the way he went after Scherzer and Turner a couple years back.
@RonDarling. I’m not sure that the Pads need OF DH help badly, unless you know more about Tatis’ return than they are communicating. They just placed 3 OFers in the AS game and Tatis is due back soon. And DH has been filled by Arraez/Solana quite nicely. What the Padres need is another SP, not necessarily a front line guy because Musgrove is back soon. They also could use another solid RP. I don’t see them making a big splash, rather filling a few minor needs in the pitching staff.
Also, we don’t know anything about Preller’s leash or that he must go deep into playoffs or get axed? He’s done an amazing job this year as GMs go. They traded Soto and FO cut payroll $100M but he has the team better than last year despite major injuries 4 of their stars. He picked up AS Profar for $1M. ROY candidate Merrill was successfully converted from SS to CF, he converted Soto into frontline pitchers Cease, King and Vasquez and starting C Higgy. He landed two-time batting champ Arraez and didn’t give up any top prospects and even has the Marlins paying his salary. I’m guessing he might have a longer leash than popular opinion would dictate.
Brew-They don’t know exactly what they’re gonna get out of Tatis, Musgrove, or Darvish when they get back though, and have relied on a patchwork RF for a month or so. IF they did something like I mentioned above, I’m sure they’d move Cronenworth as part of it to help salary wise, which would put Arraez at 1b full time, and Robert could easily slide into an of/dh spot every day. PS-I’m just going on Preller’s history here..which led me to my conclusion.
I know Preller can shoot for the moon at TD, but last year he didn’t and I really doubt that after all the effort to stay under the CBT this year they’d blow past it now with a bigger contract. That’s not to say they won’t try to entice Crochet using top prospects, I just don’t see it happening because the price will be so big (involving one or two of their top prospects). FO has said they want to reset on the CBT this year then up payroll a bit next year. Cronenworth is a solid 2.5 WAR guy and his contract is looking like a bargain so why trade him for $ savings? He’s likely the 2b/1b for many years.
Brew- Look at the salaries. If it was something like Salas, Cronenworth, Rosario, Ornelas, and Lesko for Crochet and Robert? The salaries pretty much match up for this year..and with Kim most likely coming off the books next year, and Robert due an arbitration increase, they should still be able to re-set the cap by fitting Robert’s cap hit into the slots opened up by Kim/Cronenworth.
Keep in mind that under this scenario, Merrill likely moves back to SS, and Arraez goes back to 2nd.
I know, that’s why I mentioned Crochet as not out of the question. But the price (in prospects) would be steep, and I know the organization feels the same way about Salas and De Vries as they did Tatis and Merrill, and I’m not sure the need (a SP on an innings limit, and a perceived short leash to AJP) to detract from the FO goal to be competitive in the long term as well.
RonDarling, Robert is under contract and not in the Arb. system. Preller is doing phenomenal and his job is likely just as secure as any other POBO/GM around. Go Pads
When Tatis returns in a couple weeks the Padres have hands down the best OF in the NL, possibly in baseball.
The Padres have OF like Ornelas in AAA that are tearing the cover off the ball and guys like Solano and his .292 114 OPS+ sitting on the bench because there is no where for them to play.
So WTF are you talking about?
Ron, Cronenworth is #6 in bWAR at 1B in baseball. He is not being moved. He is inexpensive and under control for 6 years.
Cronenworth CERTAINLY is not being moved for a temporary replacement in RF. Tatis will be back this season. Any questions about Tatis this season were NOT about his bat. Only about his legs. He will be the Padres RF for a decade to come.
The Padres don’t NEED help with payroll. They are nearly $9 million UNDER the CBT and have said they are prepared to go back over it in 2025 and beyond. They have said even this season for the right player, although I have a hard time with that.
Robert is an injury waiting to happen. He has played just 359 of the WS 589 games from 2021to today and is will be paid $55 million over the next 3 seasons. If he continues to be hurt and play like he has this season, no one is giving up anything of great value for him
The Padres already have an AS CF that is a rookie and is getting better and better month by month, so not sure where you think Robert would play.
Crochet is out of the question at the deadline. Padres need a starting pitcher and he won’t be one until next season.
Robert is not under arbitration, he is under contract for the next 3 years. $15 million for 2025 and if traded, his two $20 million option years vest.
Agree as Crochet will be shut down before we need him.
We need relief help.
Hopefully AJ can pry a rental (Flaherty?) for a mid-tier prospect, and maybe a couple of RPs. What they do will tell us a lot about FO awareness of Musgrove and Darvish viability ROS.
Interesting article in UT this morning suggesting Solano as trade bait.
Love to see Zach Eflin back with our Pads, Brew!
😉
#1 pick 12 years ago. Yeah he’d fit in as No 4 so nicely, he’d be bada$$ #5 or #6 next year depending on Yu’s decision.
Rain delay just worked in our favor top o the 1st, Gwynning!.
“Rain delay, schmain delay!” – Dylan Cease
Edit: *wouldn’t like to see him as the centerpiece, sorry.
Salas is 18 playing in high A. Most of us were still in high school at 18. He is not hitting .300 this year and that doesn’t mean we just give up. I think a lot of people expected him to just jump through the minors and be the next HOFer. And those people are disappointed that he is struggling in high A. I say they hold on to him tight. What have the over the top trades brought us? An NLCS appearance and several disappointing seasons. We don’t have a bottomless wallet anymore.
James, I’m fine with hanging onto him too, BUT knowing that AJ has already reached out on Crochet (as was reported months ago), and knowing that the Sox wouldn’t mind unloading Robert, I see this as a solid fit.
Will it happen? Who knows?
But judging from AJ’s history, I’m sure he’s gonna take a big swing at star level pieces.
He’s not in the HOF!
Glad you agree. As he shouldn’t be.
Preller has not reached out on Crochet because Crochet makes no sense for a Padres team that needs a back of the rotation starter for a few weeks this season. Trading for him now makes ZERO sense.
Sometimes common sense has to take precedent over what someone in the media claims and this is one of those cases. Preller is not trading away the future for a pitcher that cannot help the team in the starting rotation NOW.
Trading for Crochet in the offseason makes a ton of sense. Just not now.
There’s a difference between “give up” and 8th ranked overall prospect though, right? No one said he won’t be a player, but being untouchable and having an OPS of .550 at any stage doesn’t compute for me.
I mean, I’m excited about George Wolkow, an 18 year old 6’7″ lefty in the Sox system who is crushing A ball right now. He’s also the 13th ranked White Sox prospect and you haven’t heard of him, because he has to prove himself above A ball a bit more before being touted as top 10 prospect or untouchable.
Like I said, I’m not saying he won’t be a star, I just wouldn’t be that excited to have him as a centerpiece of a trade for the Sox best trade chips.
Mayo or Holliday, yes. Not Salas yet.
Yeah-Salas ranking is too high too fast, but the defense at C is appealing if it’s not hyperbolic groupthink. The worst headliner news a WSox fan could read is Spencer Jones among the various rumors.
6th ranked overall. Being in A+ ball at 17 and given the opportunity to catch instead of the pair or 25 year old players the Padres had at that level is unprecedented, Just so you know, the average age of a catcher in the Midwest League to start the season was 25, 8 years older than Salas. THAT is how good he is behind the plate. He has a lot of years to allow the bat to catch up with that glove, but even if it never does he is so good that he will probably be in the majors before he turns 20 in June of 2026.
you don’t have to worry about the White Sox trading for him, because they don’t have anyone good enough for Preller to even cconsider including him in the trade.
People know Salas is young and shows good promise. The hype is just over the top.
Sure-they wouldn’t dream of trading him for Crochet or just about any top end starter/position player.
Agree, lets start developing prospects. Merrill is a game changer, inagine Abrams, Turner, and a couple others playing for us vs against us.
Would Abrams start on this current squad? I don’t think so. He would have sat behind Bogaerts and after Kim’s 2023 season would have sat behind him as well. Maybe the Padres would not have resigned Profar if they have Abrams available. Maybe Merrill is not in CF. Maybe Tatis doesn’t move to RF and become the best defender there in baseball.
As it is Soto had higher WAR for Padres than the guys traded to the Nats and this season Cease, King, and Vasquez have a higher WAR than Abrams, Gore, and Wood.
The trade tree is at the very least equal if not slightly on the Padres side.
Why is Salas 18 playing at high A is my question?
Snelling isn’t pitching well at AA. Preller likes to push them up quick.
I understand wanting to challenge Salas moreso than others though. I just question Preller’s handling of the large majority of these prospects. It was a home run for Merrill but how many others have been called up to a higher level too soon and just burnt service time/stalled out?
Because he is so advanced behind the plate. Salas is the best catcher behind the plate in the Midwest League and he was 17 when the season started in a league where the average catcher age is 25. With catchers the most important thing is not what they do AT the plate, its what they do BEHIND the plate.
“Most of us were still in high school at 18.”
Some of the commenters here were indeed in high school at 18.
As freshmen.
He has not HIT well in A+ ball where he is 4+ years younger than the average. He has played incredibly well behind the plate. He just turned 18 in June. He is still a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.
Sorry, 6+ years younger than the average player.
Padres are definitely not trading for Roberts. Not with tatis coming back in the next few weeks. They would be better off just trading for Canha and platooning him and Peralta until tatis is back.
Padres have said that both Salas and Vries are untouchable. So that drastically reduces the chances of trading for crochet. Though it’s possible preller tries to do without either of them.
According to Fangraphs the padres are about 12m under the tax line. They can save about 8m more if Darvish doesn’t return this year which sound very possible. So the padres could have 18-20m to spend and stay under the tax line. Makes me wonder if they would kick the tires on trading for snell who is owed around 12m. I think the giants will be open to moving him and the prospect cost shouldn’t be too crazy given his salary and looming opt out. Just throwing that out there, no rumors to support it. He does fit what the padres need.
Not a bad dart throw, Simm! I keep hearing “mutual interest” in moving Reid Detmers down the I-5…
Big skirt!