With the trade deadline now just six days away, here are four things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Ray to make Giants debut:
Veteran left-hander Robbie Ray hasn’t pitched in more than 18 months after exiting the first start of his 2023 season with a flexor strain that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. At the time, he was a member of the Mariners, but over the winter Seattle swapped Ray to San Francisco in exchange for outfielder Mitch Haniger and righty Anthony DeSclafani. He’s continued his rehab with his new club since then, and all that work getting back to the mound will finally pay off today when Ray makes his first start in a Giants uniform against the Dodgers in L.A. in a game scheduled for 8:10pm local time.
Ray will be facing right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is coming off the IL himself but sports a strong 3.47 ERA in 18 starts this year. The Giants will be hoping that Ray, the AL Cy Young award winner in 2021, will provide a boost and halt a potential three-game losing streak. San Francisco has dropped two straight and fallen near the back of a tight NL Wild Card chase. They now sit five games out, and five teams separate them from the Mets, who currently hold the final Wild Card spot. The Giants’ play over the next few days will be crucial with regard to their deadline approach. San Francisco will also need to make a 40-man roster move to activate Ray.
2. NL Wild Card scene and its impact on the trade deadline:
As just alluded to, the NL Wild Card hunt is at a critical juncture. The Cardinals and Mets hold the second and third spots at the moment, but each of the Padres, D-backs, Pirates, Cubs, Reds, Giants and Nationals are within 5.5 games. The Cubs and Nats both still plan to operate primarily as sellers, but the direction isn’t as clear for everyone else in the mix. A series of three to four straight losses for any of these clubs would have massive deadline ramifications. For some clubs, a decision may come even sooner. The Reds are already open to moving some of their veteran relievers even as they look to hang around in the race, but a loss today could drop them 5.5 games out of the postseason picture. Every game carries heightened significance right now, creating a mini-playoff effect and leading to ample scoreboard watching.
3. Yelich exits with injury:
Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich is in the midst of a resurgent season at the plate, sporting a career-best 18.4% strikeout rate and an excellent .315/.406/.504 slash line (156 wRC+) in 73 games this year. That’s been a huge part of Milwaukee’s success, but now it seems the club may need to go without its best hitter for some time after he exited yesterday’s win over the Cubs due to back tightness. According to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, manager Pat Murphy told reporters after the game that Yelich “could be” due for a trip to the injured list. Frustrating as the loss of Yelich would surely be, a silver lining for the Brewers would be the fact that the club is relatively flush in quality outfield options with Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, and Sal Frelick all seeing regular playing time at the moment and Blake Perkins currently in a bench role.
4. Check out today’s episode of the MLBTR Podcast!
This week’s installment of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is a particularly fun one, as host Darragh McDonald is joined by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco for a two-hour megapod during which they discuss the coming trade deadline. Discussed within are not only some of the league’s most obvious buyers (Yankees, Orioles) and sellers (Marlins, White Sox), but also some of the teams facing some tough decisions this summer like the Rays and Blue Jays. The episode is currently live on both Spotify and Apple Music, and will be posted here on the site later this morning!
It might be worth noting that the Braves (who just lost Albies and Fried) currently hold down the 1st WC in the NL West, but are only 2 games up on the Cardinals, and just 3 games ahead of the Padres.
Braves are still in pretty good shape to make the playoffs but are also one losing streak away from being in the mud with the rest of the contenders.
How are they in good shape? No Albies or Acuna and at least a couple of weeks without Harris. No Fried for a while. Only 3 starters (Morton, Sale and Lopez), all with potential innings limits. Recent DFAs starting in two OF slots and in the IF. Olsen, Arcia, Duvall and Murphy having career worst seasons.
Their chances of being in a wold card spot on 9.1 are slim.
The teams have to play each other. Some of the teams will knock other of the teams out. The Braves have a lead playing .500 ball from here on still gives them 85/86 wins. They might not host but they should still get in at 5/6.
And then 3 starters is enough. In 2021, I think we really only had 2.
Plus we can add wins via the trade deadline, Harris is coming back, Nacho is still an unknown, and we have underperformed our wxoba by ..011, which is bottom 5 in the majors. Some positive regression especially on barrels, which the Braves are excellent at, will change things. If those long fly outs turn into 3 run homers, we are in good shape.
Fangraphs doesn’t adjust based on the details, including injuries. 86% to make the playoffs with a 2 game WC lead and the Albies and Fried injuries (two days ago) is insane.
What’s their trade capital? I can’t see anything other than Iglesias.
If Braves split with today this is going to get dicey fast.
SD has come out of break looking good with SP dominating. If Joe is coming back in 2-3 weeks, might get away without a big trade for SP. they don’t need a 5 much for next few weeks and can use a BP day if needed. Need Tatis back bad and of course, Manny has to return to the “back of his card” fast!
For a team not getting hardly anything out of its “big 3” and having the 1 and 2 SP on the shelf most of year, they are really doing good.
Fingers crossed.
I think it will be long than 2-3 weeks on Musgrove. He is just starting to throw some pens. He will likely do that for another week or two before needed multiple rehab outings. 4-6 weeks is more likely if he doesn’t have any setbacks.
I think he was due his 2nd BP yesterday or today so early August should be at least on the table.
Is it the 5th or 10th, we’ll have to wait and see. I think pain tolerance is the real thing on Joe.
SD shouldn’t need a 5 until about that window no more than 2 or 3 times.
I’d rather have a couple of BP games than trade away any of the top 4 prospects.
Now, if he has a set back pre-deadline, different plan.
Java threw a 2nd BP session 4 days ago with breaking balls this time and had zero pain. He’ll throw another session tomorrow. The PRP injection has apparently worked really well and while the coaching/medical staff is holding him back a little, he’s now losing patience and wants to get back in 2 weeks. But it sounds like mid- to late August is likely. I do think his positive progress will affect AJPs actions at the TD. But I hope he’s himself because we haven’t seen him pitch effectively since 2023.
@LT. Vasquez has been amazing and now has a better ERA and Gore. Gotta love it.
Yeah his star cast numbers haven’t been very good but somehow he hasnt been giving up many runs which is all that matters.
You know it – all of those AJ lost the Soto trade” guys jump can’t understand ther you have to give prospects time before you judge.
How about this:
Cease, King, Vasquez and Higgy all at less than what JS cost in 2024? Factor in Pro at his salary and production makes losing Soto’s bat not as bad. Allowed for a CBT reset.
I’m all good with both Soto trades. The first was going for it so, ok you paid a price. The second one was to make the best out of 24 while also improving beyond and rest – so, ok. sad needed a rotation and he was the way to get it.
Imagine JS batting on SD’s order without Cease, King and Vazquez as 60% of the rotation! Why bother if you don’t have any pitchers!
And SD has the first 3 of those (and Brito) again next year.
Add the Clevinger trade into the mix – anyone seen Waldron pitch this year?
France gets DFA’d – Nola looks a little better – still not a good one though!
I digress into the abyss thst is AJ bashing.
Yes, I hope Joe (or Yu or both) find their way back to the mound.
I have to believe AJ has a good feel for what Yu is going to do even though we don’t.
I think let LAD and others overpay for the top targets and land on a Fedde type is my thought.
SD’s rotation is set for 2025 with what they have (adding in Joe and Yu) so they don’t need a controlled SP.
The Braves are in serious trouble.
Dark – I tend to agree. Unlike SD who had multiple major injuries early, survived and got X back, should get more soon for the run, it seems as if Atl is hit when they were just a little better than the other WC contenders and now have to try to hang on – while Mets and Cards seem to be getting better.
Sorry, but the Reds management wise are not ACTING like they want to hang around in the race, despite their young players efforts.
Sadly, the players will remember when they have the opportunity to move.
Elly will probably go big lights, big city regardless.
This – I’m just glad they never traded Dave Concepción, great players should stay with the Reds for life.
The Reds are 5 games below .500 and have gone 5-5 in the last 10. (including getting swept in 3 games by the Nationals. The team’s play is not telling management to make moves.
They currently have 5 teams between them and a playoff spot. They have 2 additional teams right on their heels, a 1/2 game and a game behind. If they falter even a little, they could have 7 teams to climb over.
It’s reasonable to assume at least a few of the teams ahead will make additions before the deadline, in theory making them better. All it takes is just one of the teams ahead having the same record as the Reds the rest of the way and they don’t make the playoffs.
While I completely understand the frustration of Reds fans here, the reality is that trading away prospects for one or two players right now probably still results in missing the playoffs, and also losing said prospects. The Reds are a team that relies on player development as they don’t often spend a ton in free agency.
They may make a move or two, but I understand if management is reluctant to make a move.
Depends on the prospects.
Reds management responded when criticized they had too many shortstop prospects that they could be used for tradable assets. They have a lot of infield prospects as a whole. They will never play them all at once.
On the flip side, there is not much depth at outfield, catching, and relief pitching in the system. Inexplicably, they traded three young relievers recently for a team that claims it is building for the future and has little depth there. They are having some success elsewhere, of course. We saw with Senzel that moving infielders to the outfield doesn’t necessarily work.
You make a fair point. But it seems to be a sellers market right now, so prices will be higher.
If the Reds want to redistribute their talent, it might be better to wait until the offseason when the market should be more neutral.
How are teams using advanced metrics to identify undervalued players and potential trade targets? Are these data-driven approaches changing the landscape of the trade market?
no doubt, any player(s) that Pirate GM acquires before the deadline will be those no other team wants
The annual dumpster diving events will be the highlight of their deadline deals
We can understand your pain here in Cincinnati.
Technical correction: It’s been almost 16 months since Robbie Ray pitched (March 31, 2023) before going under the knife, not “more than 18 months.” Sorry, I’m a numbers guy and I see these things.
The Giants need to dump Conforto, Soler, Yaz, Flores for anything they can get. And maybe Chapman and Estrada. Then they need to listen to offers on Webb – the most overrated pitcher in MLB…by far Finally, they need to dump Farhan and Melvin and hit the reset button.
The Braves would gladly make a deal for Conforto/Flores if you guys do decide to sell.
Yeah Webb the guy who leads all of baseball in innings pitched the last three seasons, with a Cy Young runner up last season yet somehow only has one ASG appearance is so overrated.
You really think he deserved to be an AS this year? Wow. I didn’t realize IP equated to being an AS. The bar is pretty low. And what a great job he did representing the Gmen. Overrated.
So if someone sees something a little differently than you do they can only be a troll or pathetic. Could be we just disagree on a relatively insignificant subject on a baseball message board.
You think Webb is an ace, I think he’s a #2 or 3. Life goes on.
If they dump Farhan wouldn’t he just do a typical Farhan dumpster dive and reinstate himself? Asking for a buddy.
Fair enough. I actually say all that a little tongue in cheek, but point taken. Can we agree that Webb does indeed suck in first innings?!
Another “All-Star” performance from Webb: 5IP, 4ER, 9H, 3BB.
How are you this incompetent, Nick Deeds? “Frustrating as the loss of Yelich would surely be” isn’t proper English. You can’t just leave “as” out to start the sentence. Grammar is not optional if you’re a pro writer.