The Reds announced this evening that they’ve officially signed second overall pick Chase Burns. MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reports (on X) the the right-hander received a $9.25MM signing bonus. While that’s a bit shy of the $9.79MM slot value, it’s the largest signing bonus in draft history. Burns edges past the $9.2MM which Paul Skenes secured as last year’s first overall pick.
It’s possible that record will only stand for a few days. Burns is the first player from this year’s top 10 to sign. First overall pick Travis Bazzana (and potentially #3 selection Charlie Condon) could land a loftier bonus in the coming weeks. That won’t be of much concern to Burns, the first pitcher to come off the board last week. While Burns was widely expected to be the top pitcher selected, he was a slightly surprising pick at #2. Condon and West Virginia infielder JJ Wetherholt — who “slipped” to the Cardinals at #7 — were marginally ahead of Burns on most public rankings heading into the draft, largely because of the heightened injury risk for pitchers.
ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Keith Law of the Athletic each had Burns as the #5 player in the class. FanGraphs slotted him sixth, while Baseball America ranked him fourth. All four publications had Burns and Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith as the top two pitchers in some order.
Burns was a high-profile draft prospect as a high schooler back in 2021. Teams weren’t willing to meet his asking price at the time, leading the 6’3″ righty to the University of Tennessee. Burns had two strong seasons in Knoxville and transferred to Wake Forest for his draft year. He started 16 times for the Demon Deacons, firing 100 innings with a 2.70 earned run average. Burns fanned nearly half the batters he faced and easily led Division I pitchers with 191 strikeouts. Smith was second in the nation with 161 punchouts. He kept his walk rate to a 7.7% clip and finished his college career with a 40% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk percentage.
With that level of dominance, it’s not surprising that prospect evaluators suggest Burns has a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. Reports credit him with an upper-90s fastball that can run as high as 100 or 101 MPH. That pitch and his wipeout slider have each gotten 70 or 80 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale. Burns’ curveball and changeup are a bit behind the fastball/slider combination and scouting reports point to some effort in his delivery, but there’s not much question about his ability to stick as a starter. Both Law and McDaniel note that he could move quickly through the minors.
Cincinnati selected another Wake Forest righty, Rhett Lowder, in the top 10 a year ago. They’re hopeful that duo will join Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott as part of a homegrown starting staff. There’s injury risk with any group of young pitchers and the Reds will need more than five starters on an annual basis, but that quintet could be the nucleus of one of the sport’s best rotations if things break right over the next couple seasons.
If it’s true that he got a bigger bonus than Skenes then he should be I t he big leagues by September and dominating
He will do neither. Unicorns are rare.
Lowder hasn’t figured out AA yet, after all.
I agree. You should never risk rushing a pitcher or hitter. Although I favored the Reds drafting Condon due to the dire need of a power hitting RH corner OF, this could wind up being a good choice. The key thing is injury which is much higher with a pitcher versus a position player. If Burns stays healthy, I think he can be a top notch starter. If he suffers an injury, the Reds will have egg all over their faces for blowing the 2nd pick in the draft (essentially the first pick due to the Guardians passing on Condon)..
No more David Clyde’s?
As a Rockies fan, I kind of wish the Reds had drafted Condon also. It’s not that I don’t think he will be a great player, I have no clue about that, no one does. But a lot of the Rockies best prospects are outfielders and they have two good young outfielders in the majors. There are only so many spots.
I do think this might be a reversal of the 2013 draft when the Cubs took Kris Bryant and the Rockies got Jon Gray even though the opposite was expected by most mock drafts. If Condon ends up with an MVP like young KB, I guess it wouldn’t be all bad.
We won’t be seeing burns until as early as 2026 probably 2027
He’ll easily be up by 2026, and possibly 2025.
The reason why you take the best P in the draft is because in reality you need at least 9 starters you can trust coming out of ST capable of Major League innings. You hope at any one time you have 5 that are healthy maybe even 6 with one being a long man. The reason? Attrition. You’ve seen it this year. Pitchers drop like flies. That’s the reason you take the best P in the draft. You hope you get the rare one who doesn’t have arm problems but in reality they probably all will at some point so you better have more in the wings. Because one thing is sure, You’re gonna need them.
You are right that pitchers drop like flies. It didn’t use to be as bad as it is these days. I think it is due to several things. Most pitchers throw harder now due to weight training, etc. That alone stresses the arm more. Poor throwing mechanics are taught. Stand up straight and throw more down hill instead of using the whole body when throwing (drop and drive). Pitchers are throwing more sliders,, splitters, cutters etc.. which stress the arm more…That is on top of throwing harder which is probably as much the culprit for more injuries as anything.. That is what bothers me most about using the 2nd overall draft choice on a pitcher versus a top hitter like Condon. The same thing applies to signing a top FA pitcher for a ton of money. It could well all be for nothing.i
I wonder why the 100 mph starters like ohtani or degrom or strider are down…
Those type of pitchers are more vulnerable to injury. If you notice them, they are all usually bulked up with weight training. I know they preach proper stretching etc., but bulked up, tight tendons, muscles and ligaments are more prone to tear when under stress.
Another thing is starting kids too young in the youth leagues and having them over throw in order to win games. Not only does starting them too young put extra stress on their bodies while they are growing and developing, it tends to produce burn out by the time they reach high school. All the regimented games and practices reduces the time they can just be a kid doing many other things. Often times they have very poor coaching in the youth leagues which only contributes to the problem.
The Cubs have been lucky so far in that all their young pitchers that are injured don’t have arm injuries. The Cubs baby their prospect pitchers and I’m not sure that’s better or worse in the long run. I suppose we’ll see. The only one with any significant arm problem is Killian and he suffered a torn muscle in his shoulder. I’m not sure if that’s better or worse but he’s been at Iowa for 2 weeks now in relief and they show no signs of trying to build him back up as a starter right now. Also in college I’ve noticed that college coaches will let their top pitchers throw like 130 pitches or more, I’ve seen it quite a few times. I know they mostly throw only once a week but still not sure what that does to a kids arm. But all the reasons you mention are true. But without changing one variable at a time you’ll never be able to point to one specific cause.
Yep. And the guy gives up about 6 HR per outing. So “thankfully” he was drafted by the reds to play in that “pitcher friendly park” lol
I always shake my head when they get guys who walk a lot of guys or give up lots of gopher balls to pitch in that ballpark.
Called it.
Would you have preferred the Reds draft Condon? Not sure what needs your organization needs, but I was happy with both Chicago teams’s first round picks. White Sox got their potential replacement for Crochet, and Cubs definitely need a 3B.
I thought Matt Shaw would be the Cubs 3B? MLB currently lists him as the third best 3B prospect in the game. Am I missing something?
Shaw and Triantos aren’t even playing 3B much in the minors. They’ve been playing 2B and SS for Tennessee. The Cubs really had no PURE 3B prospect in the system having drafted and signed internationally about 11 SS’s which proves you can’t just take a SS and play him anywhere. Then they doubled down and took another one in the 2nd round.
Cam Smith was a reach, shouldve taken 3rd best P Prospect out of E.Carolina.
Shaw is the Cubs future 3B.
If Smith makes it, it wont be at 3B
I also thought Yesavage was a better pick IMO. But they did really need a 3B prospect to put into the system as it was a glaring hole and Smith was worthy of where he was drafted. The only part of the Cubs FO I really trust is Kantrovinz and the scouts. They’ve stockpiled the #2 Farm System in Baseball so in them I trust. Not really sure what happens above them as it seems to be a bit of a clown show with bad FA signings and bench players. And I don’t know why everyone is complaining about Burns because dude was dominant in college. Yeah P’s are dangerous but you have to take some sometimes.
Plus the Cubs Head of personnel and scouting Kastrovinz and Banner have assured everyone they drafted Smith and Mathis as 3B and that’s where they’re going to play and that Mathis was drafted for his bat not to be played around with as a P. They sounded positive that they can both stay there in the long run.
My goodness, with 20 plus years of top five first round picks you would think you could finish .500 at least once
2004 – Pick 7
2005 – Pick 12
2006 – Pick 8
2007 – Pick 15
2008 – Pick 7
2009 – Pick 8
2010 – Pick 12
2011 – Pick 27
2012 – Pick 14
2013 – Pick 27
2014 – Pick 19
2015 – Pick 11
2016 – Pick 2
2017 – Pick 2
2018 – Pick 5
2019 – Pick 7
2020 – Pick 12
2021 – Pick 17
2022 – Pick 18
2023 – Pick 7
2024 – Pick 2
Average pick is a little over 10 since 2004. The Reds were 82-80 last year.
That was a satisfying comment. Like a combo of a Mutombo finger wag while simultaneously dunking on him. While your nuts drag across his face.
Stop letting your facts get in the way of their narrative!
Even this Pirates fan finds this response satisfying.
Great post. Someone hasn’t been doing that great of a job over the years.
@MattStairs: Bravo
@mad1: This is not the site to post hip-shot statistics. There is usually someone who will check you.
Did you just write that the Reds could finish 500 at least once between 2004 and 2024?
Are you a Reds fans? Are most Reds fans on this site this obtuse? Do you know if you go to BR it will show you how the seasons they did finish above 500? While it’s not a lot of times it did actually happen.
Or maybe 4 top 5 picks in the last 20 years or 4% of those picks. Senzel, India, Greene, and now Burns. It’s not the picks, it the ability to keep players ($$$$) and sign players ($$$$).
I do like what the new GM is doing. He’s built a strong rotation, and the pitching pipeline is getting pretty deep.
So taking Burns really didn’t save that much on the bonus pool. Good lord this team is going to give me a stroke one day. Should have just bucked up the extra cash sacrificed a little bit on the later picks and picked the near guarantee impact big leaguer in Condon. Instead we got a guy with serious reliever risk whose fastball got hammered by lefties last year. Obviously I would be over the moon to be proven wrong here but I don’t want my franchise to be the but of the Mark Appel Kris Bryant type jokes in 5 years
Historically, the majority of top draft picks get signed for under slot bonus money. They used their under slot savings to sign a bunch of quality prospects. I believe that their top 5 picks were all rated at #77 or better by MLB Pipeline.
With Ashcraft falling on hard times, the Reds only have the top 3 spots in their rotation filled going into next year. Montas will be a FA and Williamson and now Spiers are coming back from injury. None of their top pitching prospects have excelled in the minors this year, so there might not be any immediate help from them.
The Reds probably will be picking from the middle to the bottom of round 1 going forward. It’s smart to grab the top pitching talent when you are in a position to do so. Burns has two plus or plus plus pitches now (best slider in the draft) and has two more pitches that project to be plus offerings down the road. Very good pick.
Why do you think the Reds will be picking late in the first round from now on?
As Matt Stairs points out, there is nothing in the Reds history over the past decade to suggest that. Their current record of 47-50 doesn’t suggest it. But as always, you worship at the feet of Nick Krall.
Hey Bob. Nice to hear from you yet again.
Reading is Fun Da Mental. What I wrote was “The Reds probably will be picking from the middle to the bottom of the first round going forward”. As Matt Stairs wrote the Reds picked in the middle of round 1 in both 2021 & 2022. They should’ve picked in the middle of round 1 in 2024, but they had incredible luck in the lottery in moving from #13 to #2.
It doesn’t matter where they picked in 2016-2019. As you point out, their current record of 47-50 suggests exactly that: they will pick in the middle of round 1 yet again next year.
Plain as day for those who are not blinded by their hatred of Nick Krall.
Can you spell Sycophant?
Can you spell pissant?
Travis Bazzana is a pretty awesome name.
More awesome if he ever played for the Savannah Bananas.
6 top 7 picks in the last 9 years is too many they should easily be .500 or better
Those 6 picks:
2016 – Nick Senzel: near bust
2017 – Hunter Greene: All-Star at 24 yrs old
2018 – Jonathan India: RoY in ‘21, two bad injury filled seasons, resurgent ‘24 season
2019 – Nick Lodolo: struggled to stay on the mound a bit, but has flashed every bit top of rotation stuff
2020 – Austin Hendrick: bust danger
2021 – Matt McClain: was playing at RoY caliber last season; lost this entire season to injury
2022 – Cam Collier: yet to debut
2023 – Rhett Lowder: yet to debut
2024 – Chase Burns: yet to debut
Reds have done a great job drafting all-in-all but it takes more than a few picks for it to come together. These picks led them from a 100 loss season two years ago to a winning record last year and despite several key injuries (and a suspension), are still in the thick of it this season
Of those listed, the 6 picks that went in the top 7 were: Senzel, Greene, India, Lodolo, Lowder and Burns.
The Reds didn’t get much from Senzel. But that 2016 first round has proven to be pretty weak in general. The next 3 players on the list (Greene, India, Lodolo) are all key pieces of the current team, and the other 2 (Lowder, Burns) are obviously still developing but are on track to be key players too.
All these high end picks and still under .500. Being a Reds fan is a miserable existence..