Chris Martin was retroactively placed on the 15-day injured list on July 4, and the Red Sox were hopeful that he could be activated this coming Friday on his first day of eligibility. However, Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe) that Martin is temporarily shut down since the reliever “didn’t feel great” after a game of catch on Friday.
Cora said that Martin isn’t scheduled to undergo an MRI, and overall he is “not concerned” over the situation, “but it’s going to take longer than we expected.” Martin has been sidelined with right elbow inflammation, and rather than continue his throwing progression, he’ll instead take the All-Star break off before heading to Boston while the Red Sox start the second half with a western road trip.
Martin’s numbers aren’t quite as impressive as they were during his first season with the Red Sox, but he has still been quite solid with a 3.42 ERA over 26 1/3 innings, as well as an above-average 27.9% strikeout rate and a 1.9BB% that ranks among baseball’s best walk rates. Martin had a minimal 15-day IL stint earlier this season due to anxiety, in addition to this current elbow issue.
With Martin set to miss more time beyond Friday, the Sox are now down two relievers with yesterday’s placement (retroactive to July 9) of right-hander Justin Slaten on the 15-day IL, also with inflammation in his throwing elbow. Speaking with MLB.com and other media about Slaten, Cora said the reliever has “been grinding through it probably the last 15 days….It’s his first time pitching this much, and obviously we’ve got to be careful with him.” For now, the Red Sox believes this could also be just a 15-day break for Slaten, though as we just saw with Martin, it depends on how Slaten’s elbow responds during his down time.
Slaten has made an excellent accounting of himself in his first MLB season, with a 3.38 ERA and a set of outstanding Statcast metrics over his first 42 2/3 innings as a big leaguer. A third-round pick for the Rangers in the 2019 draft, Slaten was selected away from Texas by the Mets during last December’s Rule 5 draft, but the Mets then dealt Slaten to the Red Sox, and thus Boston has to keep Slaten on its active roster or injured list for the entire season or else offer him back to the Rangers.
Based on the early results, it looks like the Red Sox may have found a hidden gem with the 26-year-old righty. Slaten averages 96.3mph on his fastball, though his heater and his sweeper are secondary to an excellent cutter that Slaten has thrown 39.2% of the time this season. Batters simply haven’t yet figured him out, giving the Sox another solid arm within what has been an unspectacular but generally effective bullpen. Slaten is also another example of how Boston’s revamped pitching development department and new pitching coach Andrew Bailey have turned around a staff that struggled in 2023.
This group could’ve potentially been even stronger if Seth Lugo had been signed in the offseason, as the Sox were among the teams who pushed to sign the free agent righty. Lugo signed a three-year, $45MM deal with the Royals, and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo writes that the Sox weren’t willing to go to three years for the veteran hurler, or match a $15MM average annual value.
Lugo told Cotillo that beyond the contract, the Royals stood out due to their relative proximity to Lugo’s home in Louisiana. Still, Lugo said the Red Sox “were one of the last ones talking to me before we made the decision,” and it helped that he had a past connection to Cora via Team Puerto Rico during the 2017 World Baseball Classic.
Ironically, the Red Sox dealt Lugo one of his worst outings of the season today, as Lugo allowed five runs on 10 hits and a walk over five innings in Kansas City’s 5-0 loss to Boston. Even with that rough performance now on his ledger, Lugo still has a 2.48 ERA over 20 starts and 127 innings this season, earning the righty his first All-Star nod in his ninth MLB season.
Mark – Great article, but dang it’s hard for Red Sox fans to keep being reminded of all the great pitchers they passed on last offseason because of their cheapness.
The Red Sox “had interest” in Lugo (2.48 ERA) but refused to give him fair market value.
The Red Sox “had interest” in Imanaga (2.97 ERA) but refused to give him fair market value.
And of course the Red Sox bought high and sold low on Chris Sale,(2.74 ERA) paying the Braves $17M to have him pitch for them this season. Just think, the Red Sox could very well have been in first place right now if they had signed or kept ANY of those three starting pitchers!
We greatly appreciate Chris sale….as well as the Red Sox retaining the IL placements via Vaughn Grissom
The Red Sox have the 5th best team ERA in MLB at 3.60 which not far behind the Phillies who are the best at 3.26. Also, they are not cheap with a CBT payroll of $219.1M.
Suit, it’s all in what numbers you like.
For their market placement and revenue, Henry WAS cheap.
There is a disconnect between actual PAID salary in 2024 – the bottom line – and the CBT numbers, inflated by accounting measures because it reflects contract averages and spreads money out.
Boston isn’t paying 219M out as of now, actually tens of.millions less.
All – When you consider an organization not cheap how do you measure it?
A team makes $300MM a year and the don’t pick up a mid level SP that might put them near the CAP?
I think that CHEAP is exactly the right word. If they were PIT then I would say their current payroll is very aggressive like you are trying to suggest. PIT can not afford what Boston can afford thus CHEAP is a very fair assessment in 2024 unless it was Breslow’s choice to not ask for the money. Then it’s all on Breslow.
162 million the lowest since 2014
Yes, they ARE cheap, the Red Sox generate the 3rd most revenue in all of MLB and are spending in the middle of the pack. Add in the fact that $70 million of that $219..1M number you referenced is going to guys who are NOT on the Red Sox active roster and this team woefully underspent!
GA: $219.1M the average annual value of all contracts. It is a good enough number to look at that MLB uses it to determine who pays luxury tax to help even the playing field. It also determines who incurs draft pick and international signing bonus penalties which makes it just as important, if not more important, than actual money spent.
KD: Teams leave some cap space to add salary at the trade deadline. They may still add a starting pitcher. The Red Sox have one of the best team ERAs in MLB. They could use another starting pitcher, but so could just about every team in MLB including teams that have spent way more money than them.
I think the way to look at spending is to ask: Are they spending enough to field a very competitive team? I think the Red Sox are spending enough if it is spent well. The Rays and O’s have recently spent way less than the Red Sox and done much better. Last year, the Yankees spent way more than the Red Sox and only had 4 more wins and it is the same this year so far.
Suit, the *only* reason mlb uses AAV is to prevent teams from signing a player to egregiously loaded contracts and defeat the concept of taxation. Otherwise, since *all* MLB contracts are guaranteed anyways, a team could manipulate signing bonuses, or, lump massive sums of every player to hit the same season and only ever be a one-time payor while technically running an.active-year payroll of bare mlb minimum every other year in a particular 5 or 10 year cycle
All – Review the activities of the teams spending less money than the Red Sox and you will see why. It’s about talent like I always tell you.
Your mentioned BAL and TB = Here are the Round 1 picks by all three teams. These names help explain why BAL is so exceptional yet spends less. TB had the least success of the three teams in the draft since 2016 when DD joined the Red Sox but can spend less because they traded well. And last Boston had a great GM in DD with strong drafts and then more recently they drafted poorly under GM Bloom creating several albatross contracts that cements the payroll at a very high level for the talent they have. The DD farm system has allowed Boston to not spend to the CAP while carrying contracts like Devers, Story’s, Yoshida’s, Giolito’s and Jansen’s. It all started with great drafts by DD. Without them Boston would either be winning 50 games a year or spending money like the Yankees to compete.
The following shows a comparison of the three teams you mentioned and how they drafted and why they get to spend less money than Boston after Bloom blew such a huge portion of the payroll on non elite players like Devers who can’t field, story and Giolito who haven’t stayed healthy.
2016 (DD for BOS)
BOS picked 12th and took Groome (never made the majors)
TB picked 13 took Josh Lowe 232 Games 4.0 WAR
BAL picked 27 took Cody Sedlock ONLY 3 innings pitched
DD’s first pick was a big name that failed.
2017
TB – picked 4th took Brendan McKay 11 starts -o.2 WAR
BAL – pitcked 21st took DL Hall 33 games -0.4 WAR
BOS – picked 24 took Tanner Houck 60 Starts 8.7 WAR
(DD makes best 1st round pick of the 3 despite having the latest pick!!
2018
BAL – picked 11 took Grayson Rodriguez 40 starts 1.9 WAR
TB – picked 16 took Matthew Liberatore 23 starts -0.5 WAR
BOS – picked 26 took Tristan Casas 181 games 2.5 WAR
DD once again picks last and chooses best!!
2019
BAL – picked 1st took Adley Rutschman 356 games 13 WAR
BAL – added Gunner Henderson RD 2. 278 games 13.5 WAR
TB – picked 22 took Greg Jones 6 games 0.1 WAR
BOS – No first round pick
BAL has one of best drafts ever while BOS has no 1st pick.thanks to Cherington over spending
BLOOM ERA
2020
BAL – pcikked 2nd took Heston Kjerstad 34 games 0.8 WAR
BOS – picked 17th took Nick Yorke 30 G at AAA
TB – picked 24th took Nick Bitsko still in ROK ball
BAL has good pick Bloom’s pick hasn’t performed and TB makes a terrible pick.
2021
BOS – picked 4th took Marcelo Mayer 114 G at AA
BAL – picked 5th took Colton Cowser 113 G MLB 0.4 WAR
TB – picked 28th took Carson Williams 4 G AAA 77 AA
Bloom picks first and BAL picks one spot later and gets the better player. Our top prospect isn’t keeping up with many others taken later yet Red Sox fans still believe he the real thing. He’s league average with a lot of hype much like Jeter Downs.
2022
BAL – picked 1st took Jackson Holiday 10 G -0.4 WAR
BOS – picked 24th took Mikey Romero 40 G Hi-A
TB – picked 29th took Xavier Isaac 76 G Hi-A
BAL gets the 1st pick and their guy arrives in the majors several years before the TB and BOS picks.
2023
BOS – picked 14th took Kyle Teel 74 G at AA
BAL – picked 17th took Enrique Bradfield 66 G at Hi-A
TB – picked 19th took Braydon Taylor 75 G at Hi-A
Bloom’s FINALLY makes a good pick that out paces BAL and TB’s picks through the minors.
Now here comes more reasons why BAL and TB spend less money and have done better. Besides the first round picks the other teams have scored some excellent players in the later rounds. Gunner Henderson is by far the biggest star of the later picks.
Non first round players that make the farm system deeper
BAL 2016 Keegan Akin, Austin Hays,
BAL 2017 Logan Allen
BAL 2018 Drew Rom and Caleb Killian
BAL 2019 Gunner Henderson, Kyle Stowers, Joey Ortiz
BAL 2020 Jordan Westburg
BAL 2021 Connor Norby
BAL 2022 NONE
BAL 2023 NONE
TB 2016 Jake Fraley, Zack Thompson, Nate Lowe
TB 2017 Drew Rasmussen Taylor Walls Josh Fleming
TB 2018 Shane McClanahan Taj Bradley Joe Ryan
TB 2019 NONE
TB 2020 Alika Williams
TB 2021 Kyle Manzado
TB 2022 NONE
TB 2023 NONE
BOS = DD
BOS 2016 Shane Anderson, Bobby Dalbec Santiago Espinal
BOS 2017 Kutter Crawford
BOS 2018 Jarren Duran Thaddeus Ward
BOS 2019 Chris Murphy
BOS – BLOOM
BOS 2020 NONE
BOS 2021 NONE
BOS 2022 NONE
BOS 2023 Roman Anthony
Why can TB and BAL have better records spending less money? Two reasons:
1 – Bloom drafted poorly and way over spent for Devers and others
2 – BAL had several great drafts that were deep thanks to having early picks and TB scouts failed at picking guys in the first round but did a great job in the later rounds.
It’s not about how much you spend to build your team it’s about how well you draft and develop your players that allows you to spend less and still be highly successful.
DD was great at both acquiring talent through trades and free agency and he was great at drafting and building the farm system. Bloom shedded talented players from the 2018 Champs and didn’t have the skills to back filll the lost talent through the draft. That’s why we should NOT be looking at the farm system for talent like we have recently promoted because the farm system is bare other than Teel and Anthony. The really bad news is the big contracts aren’t going away soon so Breslow needs to be thrifty and clever working with the coaches to keep changing things up so the players can perform above their skills. The DD core of players is proving to be quite good but the wasted money will continue to hamper progress until Breslow gets more money or is able to shed some of the bad contracts.
Frankly, when this 2024 team finally comes back to reality I would tell Breslow to go to ownership and restructure the Devers contract Then trade Yoshida and use Story at SS as often as you can until his contract runs out..
The new Devers’ contract needs to be restructured with $45MM extra dollars paid in 2024 so his AAV falls to where it should have been, 25MM per year. LA did the same thing with Mookie’s long term deal but they wrote off $65MM in year one of the contract.
The reason an AAV of $25 would be good is that maybe you could then trade him for a REAL 3B or you simply free up money to get a real 3B and you fix your defense.
Money is NEVER the issue with the Red Sox. Their coffers are full so it’s always an option. Quality players known as talent is always the issue as we learned from DD. It’s not the cost of the player it’s the production of the player that makes the team a champion.
Ignore the pretend sox fans here who think Shota lugo sale wouldn’t be an upgrade over bello criswell wink
Ignore “fans” who choose to complain instead of enjoying their team having a great year and being in a playoff position.
Regarding: Imanaga and Lugo
What about if they signed Montgomery or Snell? They were much more often connected to those two than to Imanaga or Lugo. I guess the only signings they couldve made were the ones that wouldve worked out.
Red Sox “pretend sox fans” Lol. Gaslighting at its finest.
Nobody signed Montgomery or Snell for what they and Noras were looking for last winter. There’s a reason for that, and it’s because both of them were looking for far more than they’re worth. Why would any sane Sox fan have wanted the team to meet their asking price and essentially overpay for them? When has that ever worked out well for a team?
Lugo and sale are Cy young candidates in the respective leagues. that could have been the best pitching staff in baseball.
Alan: You might want to see if 34 year old Lugo and 35 year old Sale can keep this up for a full season.
alan — “Lugo and Sale”
Or we couldve signed Snell and Montgomery and re-signed Turner and Duvall. Then where we’d be?
Why is the glass always nine-tenths empty. The team is doing worlds better than they were expected to do, why cant that be enough?
alan – Agree! Unfortunately Red Sox ownership didn’t want to win this year, they said they were waiting for MAT to become solid MLB starters before spending money to try and win.
That’s why the players are trying to win despite the owners, it’s so similar to the Major League movie.
alan – To make matters even worse, the Sox had a $20M option on Sale for next year. So until 2025 is over, we will not know exactly what the Red Sox gave up to get Grissom.
You agists are all alike
“Red Sox ownership didn’t want to win this year, they said . . . ”
Absolute lie. Please point to the quote if they “said” that.
—————-
Red Sox are up 4 – 1 in the 3rd inning. They have a playoff spot going into the All-Star Break. Why isnt that good enough? Instead you’re doing the ‘what if’ we signed this guy, and not that guy, and we didn’t trade this guy, but its okay we traded that guy.
Certain voices here are a parody of what bad fans would be in a cartoon.
True to all that Fever and as you wrote.. Outstanding article by another great writer of Tim’s on this outstanding site..
Let’s not forget the story came out today where montgomery officially turned down the club’s multi year offer early this past offseason, hoping Texas would invite him back.. Which never happened..
Do need to point 1 thing out with regards to the article. the BP has been pretty good. It’s the cast of castoffs brought in and out.. Generally 2 at a time and sent between Worcester and Bostn mostly, or dfa’s for good who have been awful. Pitchers like:
Brad Keller
Joely rodriquez
Trey Wingenter
Chase Anderson
Bailey Horn
Lately, Craig Weissert has been pretty bad, but most of the season have been 6 guys who the team was confident could pitch during hi impact situations with 1-2 at worcester who probably deserved to be on the roster, generally it’s been Cam Booser and isiah Campbell who deserved a spot, but roster/Cora thought different.
No.. The pen has been fine, ex for the back 2 blowout guys, who never get the smell of a close game.
john – Thanks, I hadn’t seen the Heyman article until just now. Too many questions for me to draw any conclusions. When exactly did the Red Sox make the offer, was it before the Gio signing? How long was it for, only two years? How much was the total guaranteed amount? I’m not a Heyman hater, but I don’t like when he drops something like that without giving any details. Has Montgomery confirmed anything about a multi-year offer from the Red Sox? Seems strange after all the reports that the Sox didn’t believe he would continue to perform well.
And this part seems downright stupid: “The idea that missing spring training caused Monty’s struggles seems silly when his first two starts were excellent (2.77 ERA). The more likely culprit: His extra 2023 innings through four playoff rounds (219 ²/₃ innings).”
The guy didn’t pitch at all in ST, it’s not like he was ramping it up 3 months after the World Series. I’m pretty sure whatever happened in the Boras Camp during ST contributed to his poor numbers this year.
Yes I agree on the bullpen, it’s been solid led by my man Bernardino. Hopefully it continues to hold up and Slaten gets healthy again.
Idiotic organization that has made winning secondary
Moley – I totally agree!
Devers and Duran are carrying the offense (another homerun just now for Devers!!!)
Without those two guys, the Sox would have a losing record and be buried in the standings.
And on a side note, why do opponents continue to pitch to Devers …. especially when Mister K is batting right behind him? Dumb, dumb, DUMB!
Fever – Check the numbers Rafaela’s numbers far exceed what you are giving him credit for. Just think if Cora used him effectively!!! OUCH it really kills this team to have Cora as manager.
TF – Right now I’m just so damn happy for Duran, the MVP!!!! What a journey, so many people here crapped on him for years and the Sox tried hard to trade him and look where he is now!
They saw his transformation last year, why didn’t the Sox try to extend him last offseason? They gave huge contracts to two guys who hadn’t proved themselves in the majors, but nothing to the guy who DID prove himself?? Dumb, dumb, DUMB!
Moley – And I just have to add, did my pre-game comments become prophetic or what??
Duran and Devers combined for 6 hits, 3 runs, 2 RBI and a walk.
Devers hit a huge bomb for his 23rd homerun, it actually demolished the empty seat that it landed in. He now has a .977 OPS which is good for 5th in MLB!!!
O’Neill and Rafaela? 1-for-8 (weak single) and 6 more strikeouts. Those two HAVE to start hitting consistently, because Devers and Duran can’t carry the offense every game.
Fever – Your misuse of stats seems to be getting worse. A ONE GAME SAMPLE? hahaha You’ve joined JoeBrady and Acell10 at using improper data samples to draw conclusions. hahaha
Why not use July 12 when he had two hits, or maybe July 9th or 10th when he had two hits. You picked a game where he didn’t have two hits.
Why not use July 10th and 11th when Devers had no hits and struck out 3 times? Why not use all the games prior to April 17th when Devers was hitting .177?
See, small samples are always misleading. Devers has been hot recently so you point that out but not when he was cold. If he’s so great why isn’t he at least hitting .300? Or Duran? I love the guy but he’s not carrying the team significantly more than many others.
Duran has 14 hits in July and his average fell 3 points. Devers has 16 hits during his hot July and raised his average 7 points. Rafaela has 12 hits batting out of the 9th spot and has raised his average 2 points.
Statistically June was Boston’s best month offensively. In June Devers hit .300 and produced 31 runs, Duran hit .365 and produced 35 runs and Rafaela hit .315 and produced 18 runs out of the 9 hole.
Lets put Devers in the 9th hole and see how he carries the team!!!
I have no idea what has happened to you but your fake issues with Rafaela will continue to draw my fire. Trying to constantly disparage the best young player on the team is very disturbing for a guy who preaches about what a big Red Sox fan you are.
Your were wrong about Houck and you are wrong about Rafaela.
Here’s an idea, stop taking cheap shots at specific players who aren’t doing anything wrong and start picking on Cora and Devers the two most misguided people in the organization. They do everything for themselves not the team and it’s killing the team. If Breslow could first that incompetent horse’s hind end and get his own manager in here right now, Boston might make the playoffs. If Devers got moved to his ONLY position at DH, BOSTON could make the playoffs.
See unlike Rafaela and O’Neill who aren’t doing anything wrong yet are getting roasted by you, go roast the slugs who can’t comprehend the meaning of TEAM!!! Devers and Cora
TF – Guess who has the 3rd-highest strikeout rate in the league?
Yes you are right, it’s O’Neill!!!! He’s overachieved with his brief hot streaks, if they can trade him for a good RHB or SP then Red Sox Nation will fully support it! Abreu, Rafaela and Duran can cover the OF with Ref as the backup.
What was I wrong about with Houck? I love the guy, do you disagree with me that he should be extended ASAP?
I’ve praised Rafaela numerous times! For his versatility, athleticism, and speed! How have you missed that?
Well I’m sky high with happiness now that Duran is the MVP so I will enjoy the rest of the evening.
I still love your passion, even though it’s misplaced at times ;O)
Not sure Loogies career numbers justified what the Royals paid and he may be hitting a wall
teddyyj – Maybe Loogies hitting a speed bump. Sale hasn’t hit a wall. He is simply CORA FREE. I couldn’t be happier for him but if we could give ATL Cora and Grissom and keep Sale I’d be a lot happier.
teddy – Last offseason I was the only person here screaming for the Sox to sign him. The guy had a career 3.50 ERA prior to this season, and that even includes the joke of a 2020 season.
How many starting pitchers with ERA’s that low (or lower) and at least 600 IP are playing on free agent contracts smaller than Lugo’s?
What FPG fails to mention in another rant in his cherry picking way is that the red sox would not be even in position to make the playoffs without the moves breslow has made ..if anyone thinks houck or crawford are having these seasons without breslow hiring bailey maybe guess again slaten has been a true steal similar to whitlock hindsight is 20/20 on sale but nobody in baseball saw this coming..as for the 2 missed signings it takes 2 to tango..so nice monday morning qb post fpg
.good job least you didnt make things up this time
Pool – great point about the upgrade in the pitching coaches!!! Can you imagine where the team would be if Breslow picked his own manager too? Heck, Sale and no Cora and they might have won the AL East this year.
It sure looks like its heading that way..do you have any insight on if they would turn to varitek or why tek hasnt gotten a shot anywhere thus far?
Pool – We’ve seen how Breslow picked the right coaches so far so being stuck with Cora must be killing him. I don’t know how Breslow and Varitek get along. He might be a guy Breslow is considering or maybe Breslow has someone he knows better to take the job from Cora. Varitek clearly wants to move up in the Boston organization so I think any outside offers need to be tabled until the Cora situation works itself out. If he doesn’t get the job, I think we will see him managing elsewhere. He’s got lots of connections in baseball so I think he’s highly likely to be a manager soon.
Lugo, the one that got away. 15 million is a bargain for his work this year
Lugo got a 3 year/$45M contract for his age 34-36 seasons. It will be interesting to see if it works out to be a good contract. He is certainly off to a great start, but each season he will be pitching more innings than he has ever pitched if he remains a starter.
Seem to remember an awful lot of fair weather sox fans stomping their feet and posting nasty remarks a few seasons back when Bloom refused to overpay Eduardo Rodriquez when he ran off to Detroit on that 5/80m deal, then he tried to extort them after 2y after being no better than a #3 and opted out, went to AZ for 100m.
Please stop this why didn’t they sign this or that guy stuff. So many this past offseason were calling for both Snell and Montgomery, many more than for Lugo and the odds of Lugo performing well were far lower than Montgomery/Snell.
It’s roll of the dice. KC came up big. padres and D-Backs came up with snake eyes.
John – I agree that expensive players were available and not taken and many complained. I complained when O’Neill and Giolito were contracted and when Sale was paid to leave so a league average infielder could joint the Red Sox. That’s three mistakes that Breslow made!!
I think many fans don’t get why spending big is never good or bad in general, it’s all about specifics. Snell is coming off a Cy Young and was over priced. Trading for Burnes however would have been a great move especially with all the baggage we had from Bloom. Yoshida and a couple of the over rated Bloom draft picks could have got Boston Burnes, a quality pitcher who coupled with Sale and the new pitching coaches could have made the Houck, Crawford and Pivetta trio a great bottom end of the pitching staff.
The amount of money is always the focus not the quality of the pitcher. Sale just needed Cora to NOT be leading the pitching staff like he has since he arrived each time.
Boston still needs Devers at DH to be an elite team. The baggage of Story, Yoshida, Giolito and the injury prone O’Neill are all huge wastes of money. The outfield looks great for the future. The pitching staff looks good with Houck, Crawford and Pivetta if they can re-sign him. Just like before the season, Boston still needs two high quality pitchers. Whether they cost $1MM or $30MM is irrelevant, their value needs to be comparable or better than Houck and Crawford.
So if Breslow can use his magic and find two guys for 2025 (Gioloto can’t be 1 of them) then next year the team will go as far as Devers’ bad defense will allow them.
John: Well said. Agreed that Lugo’s contract is a roll of the dice.
So many this past offseason were calling for both Snell and Montgomery,
=========================
There were exactly -0- RS fans clamoring for Lugo in the off-season. Everyone wanted Snell and/or Monty. I wanted BOTH Snell and Monty.
I was wrong.
I’m not sure why other RS fans cannot admit that they were wrong.
Yamamoto has been moved to the 60 day IL. Picking pitchers is a crap shoot.
Yamamoto
Snell
Monty
Hader
Gray
Imanaga
ERod
Giolito
Stroman
Lugo
Hicks
Flaherty
Wacha
Maeda
Those are the guys MLB-R listed in the top-25. Gray, Imanaga and Flaherty are good choices, and Lugo and Wacha are solid. The rest are very questionable.
Vegas – Just think, the Sox gave $38.5M/2yrs guaranteed to a guy with a 4.89 ERA since 2022 …… but they didn’t think a guy with a 3.56 ERA since 2021 was worth $45M/3yrs.
Dumb, dumb, DUMB!!!
I was one who clamored for Montgomery who if signed before spring training, based on his past I believe things would have turned out differently. That said, I thought his wife’s residency was for many years, not one. Thus, I believed Monte wanted to be in Boston long term. As for others, the biggest move seems to be Bailey. Let’s see what CB II does at the end of the month. Such will help define who he really is provided Henry allows him full authority.
dewey – Totally agree with you. Bailey would have been a positive influence on BOTH Sale and Montgomery.
The RS have lost only 1 series matchup over their last 13
They avoided sweeps and swept 3
They’re 13-11 vs the “vaunted” AL EAST. Second only to Balt
They own a WC SPOT 1 game before the break and sit 5 1/2 games behind the division
They have money to burn next year. And if the owners repeat what they’ve done the last 20+ years. When the roster is ripe, the Farm is providing up and coming difference making talent, a bountiful Farm System gives other teams a wide array of young talent to pick from for a rebuild as well as surplus talent in the show to make a TOR SP trade?
They pull the trigger on a trade and buy themselves another TOR SP.
These owners that have been the best in the biz must be doing something right, no?
For those that were certain of an AL EAST last place finish. Those that conveniently leave off AL EAST when they talk of last place finishes. Isn’t it time to at least acknowledge they must have done quite a few things right? This the owners suck and the team is winning despite the owners is a weak CYA
The auditions this year have been positive. Allowing the home grown and young players acquired to lead the way is paying big dividends. Despite the plethora of injuries, the RS management cobbled together enough depth from the fringes, good trades and the Farm to withstand when most teams would crumble
No ownership/management is perfect. And baseball happens. And it’s far too soon to give a final grade either way.
For most? It’s a sit back and watch this team play solid and exciting baseball. To give these kids a taste of winning culture and in it for a playoff spot for 2024. While the roster isn’t ring worthy even with the addition of a stud SP at the deadline. Anything can happen in the tourney
I’m champing at the bit to see the RS go all in 2025. And in the meantime. I’m sure enjoying this us against the world mix of vets and youth play their hearts out with talent and zeal. GO RS.
Fuel,
You really give ownership credit for the unexpected pitching and surprise of Hamilton? Their lies are why I’m so against them. We can survive if we’re told the truth. Also, lower prices since we know when they win, they will raise them.
Dewey. Love the handle BTW. He’d get my vote
Owners’ do the hiring. Other than Lucchino may he RIP. Owners leave it to their hires to make the decisions
Owners lie. When they tell the truth. Like Henry does. They get skewered.
For owners? It’s a never let the anyone outside the family know what you’re thinking.
I liken some pressers. On a less significant scale. To the great SNL skit when reporters asked the General. “What are your plans for the next attack?
I ignore and expect double speak from owners. And go by results.
As far as the hires? Over 10 years. One acquires em. Another keeps em. And another develops em. It’s an exercise in futility to assign blame or credit to “GMs”. Or whatever teams are calling their last buck decision maker
I didn’t expect much from the last 5 years. And I’m sheepish to say I just didn’t watch when they fielded a keystone kop defense.
A ring every 10 years is great success by me. It’s win a ring or finish tied for last. I think these owners are on track for that.
Fuel. Henry is the one who sets the budget and is no longer concerned with the Sox winning. Fenway Group is a conglomeration and his concern now is making money for Fenway. He’s been putting it elsewhere and limiting the team’s spending/chances to win. This started after DD re-signed Sale. It’s probably the true reason why DD left
“I ignore and expect double speak from owners. And go by results”
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That is the only way to keep your sanity.
Dewey:
2023 AL East Standings:
O’s 101 wins, $89.4M CBT payroll per Spotrac
Rays 99 wins, $131.8M
Tor 89 wins, $257.8M
NYY 82 wins, $296.3M + $32.4M luxury tax
Bos 78 wins, $225.7M
What does this tell you about spending? It tells me that spending wisely and knowing how to build a team is more important than the amount spent. You must see how much the Yankees spent last year and this year for barely better results.
“I ignore and expect double speak from owners. And go by results”
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That is the only way to keep your sanity.
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I’m not sure why anyone listens to any of these guys. It’s the same thing for any of the front office types for every team.
Actually it tells you that losing over 500 games in 5 yrs allows a team to stock pile a ton of cheap talent.
That’s one view. And could be accurate
My view? They spend and trade when everything lines up
They play the cyclic nature of baseball with aplomb
And you have to agree. We heard the moaning about the racing team, hockey team, soccer team and their lack of interest years ago and they just kept winning rings.
We will find out. Consistent with their 20+ history. Next year is ripe for all in big trades and spending.
The Blue Jays also paid $5.5M in luxury tax last year.
All, you just can’t stop spending. Of course mistakes in contracts happen but a big market club charges more for everything and can absorb while giving the fans more opportunities to win. Such translates to higher attendance, more marketing sales, larger ratings all of which produce more revenue. The last five years the team has been like a small market club. Instead of keeping the profits they reinvest elsewhere and by not putting it back into the club is why I for one am so upset with ownership. They said this year would be different and now that the team is surprisingly good, it’s time for them to show it by making a big market move and try to get into the playoffs. The team does better in the road and thus I don’t think anyone would want to play them in the first round if they’re still playing like they are.
Fuol – I stopped reading after your second paragraph, which was blatantly incorrect.
Henry is the principal owner, therefore he has the right to make any decision he chooses. He definitely insisted on retaining Cora even before Cora’s boss was hired, Breslow did NOT have the option of making his own managerial decision.
In fact Henry was the one who insisted on re-hiring Cora, as Bloom had no say in the matter.
dewey – Great post, 100% correct!!
It also says that getting an extra pick in the first and second rounds in alternating years, and, premium compensation for free agents that leave gives you larger bonus pools and more top round draft talent.
You should probably read an entire post before commenting. Or avoid commenting. That’s just arrogant and disrespectful. And tells most that you don’t want a respectful discussion unless everyone agrees with you.
Our respectful back and forth had to do with GM’s decisions on player acquisitions. And it might have taken a bit of a leap or inference. But when the owners open their wallet to give those guys more money and more options.
Look. I’m new in here. You seem to be the big fish of this little pond. Don’t wanna upset the Apple Cart. I’ll move on.
There is no apple cart to upset here and no big fish. I encourage you to keep expressing your opinion.
Fuol – You claim to be “new”, yet you are already creating drama with two excellent posters in Dewey and GASox?
Stick to the subject of baseball please. If you disagree with someone, explain why and bring something to the table that supports your stance. If you’re proven wrong, be a man and acknowledge. That shouldn’t be too hard to do, now should it?
Oh and I just noticed your claim that all owners lie EXCEPT Henry. If you were shooting for laughter, you got it. I nearly spit out my pork chops and apple sauce when I read that.
Where on earth were you posting before that shielded you from learning very basic facts such as Henry’s constant lies? If the place begins with an S and ends with a Horn, then you need to realize this place is much higher quality than that place. We are not cheerleaders here, we give credit where it’s due and constructive criticism when it’s warranted. If you can’t handle that, then perhaps you’re correct in stating this place might not be for you.
Dewey – Excellent post!
Also have to mention this …. the real Dewey was a guest during today’s radio broadcast, and he said some things not even I knew. He said both his sons died young, I had remembered only one of his sons being sick.
Saddest of all, he admitted that he never really enjoyed playing baseball because of all the crap he was dealing with in his personal life. He said basically every day he was going straight from the hospital to the ballpark. And he refused to let his teammates know what was going on because he didn’t want it to seem like he was using his kids as an excuse when he had bad games.
I’ve always loved the guy, and now I love him even more. He is truly a class act, so different from many of today’s whiny and soft players.
People being concerned with words instead of actions is bizarre
All – It tells you nothing about spending, it tells you everything about talent. Your fundamental understanding of why teams are good is off. You always say it’s not about the money but you never say it’s about the talent. That includes the drafts, the development and the manager.
Boston has a crap manager who finally got some good coaches forced on him by Breslow and things improved. The ignorant people who think they can speak intelligently about the farm system can’t. DD produces the best set of players from his draft picks of anybody in recent memory during his 2017 through 2019 drafts. That’s why Boston has bounced back quicker than expected after Bloom destroyed the talent level.
The money you keep flashing on this website is meaningless. It shows nothing except you are good at transposing numbers. Baseball can’t be minimized into simply payroll like you are suggesting. A team wins with talent, good coaching, good manager and a lot of luck with injuries whether the team has a payroll of $50MM or $300MM.
Cost benefit analysis needs to be the basis of spending the payroll. Trending data needs to include data anomalies. Snell is a perfect example. He has two Cy Young awards. That should suggest he’s got lots of talent but that’s not how you analyze data. You DON’T set your forecast of performance to be equal to last year. You observe patterns in the data and realize that Snell regress right after he has a big year. Your contract with Snell needs to include his up and down pattern. That doesn’t mean Snell is bad but it clearly adjusts his VALUE over time which dictates what you will offer him. Think of the stock market. Snell is a volatile stock that has high peaks and low valleys. Your contract must span both and be an average or the good and bad years. He’s risky because he is volatile…When I lobbied for Burnes it was because he is far less volatile. He would have been a safe bet and dealing Bloom’s crap draft picks to MIL would have put a stud at the top of our rotation. Also, with the knowledge that Breslow’s coaches were displacing Cora and his guys the keeping of Sale should have been a no brainer.
It really is like the stock market. Blue chips are great investments. Sale was a blue chip that got taken down by an outside factor that was unforeseen. He’s away from it now and he’s a Blue Chip once again. The issue was never Sale it was Cora.and still is. Breslow picks his own manager and I believe this team would have been guaranteed a playoff spot.
One last point….. The Yankees have been wasting their money since 1963. Their front office has been the worst in baseball for over 50 years. Until Cashman gets swapped out for a guy like DD, the Yankees will continue to shoot themselves in the foot with their payroll. They will still make more money that Boston even with all the mistakes and all they need to do is spend money for their fan base to think they are trying. Two deals have been good since 2009 when they last won. Getting Cole and getting Soto have been smart moves. The rest are a waste. The drafting of Judge is their other smart move in the last decade. They won’t be true contenders until Cashman is gone.
All – That’s meaningless because the fan’s prices were going to rise regardless. You shouldn’t worry about owner money. The team made less profit is the way you should think of it. That’s meaningless.
Thanks All. I’m just not up to those twisting accurate statements into conclusions that prostitute the poster’s meaning. Gish Gallop debating.
I’m thrilled with the RS progress. Thrilled with how the owners have performed since they got here and love the direction of the club
SP SP SP
3 quality home grown SPers at reasonable dough and under control for 5 years or so per?
That’s a Snoopy Happy Dance for me
And the biggest complaint these days about position players. Is we have too many young and controllable studs we don’t know where to put ‘em
Plain dumb for Henry to announce “bridge” year, we couldn’t find a trade for players better than we had at the deadline and this year’s 30 teams and 1 in 30 to win and RS fans have unrealistic expectations. Henry is a bad liar. He forgets and sometimes speaks what’s on his mind
They should just keep him away from a mic like they’ve done for years and let Kennedy or someone else spew the company line nonsense
Loyal fan for 60 years. RS are in my DNA
20 years with just 1 tourney. 50 years without a ring. A couple bad years don’t faze me at all so long as the owners are building for the future during down years
Many think that’s what they’re doing. Some don’t.
I see the same owners that used this purge purge binge strategy to the tune of best in the biz since they got here. 4X the amount of rings than all the other AL EAST teams combined.
Big fan of these owners.
For the record. IMHO. Dewey and GA posts were excellent despite some disagreement from me regarding their takes.
Troll I have been watching the Red Sox farm for quite some time and I haven’t seen a farm like this in a long time. This may be the deepest I have ever seen the farm system.
The Red Sox have 3 guys who are top 30 talents and very likely big league regulars. Mayer, Teel, and Anthony are big time talents there is no guarantee of course things can happen but those guys barring injuries are big leaguers.
After that they have a sure fire top 100 probably top 50 in Kristian Campbell he’s been outstanding this season and is probably the steal of the 2023 draft along with the steal of the 2022 draft Roman Anthony. Nick Yorke is reestablishing himself as top talent. His underlying hitting numbers are finally catching up to him in AAA. I’m not sure he will break the top 100 prospects this year but he’s a big leaguer I’m sure of that just maybe not with Boston. There’s also Yoelin Cespedes he’s a top 100 talent. Nick Sogard is establishing himself as a future big league utility guy. The only real knock on Sogard was his lack of power but he’s starting to hit the ball harder and hitting more home runs and extra base hits. I really like Chase Meidroth his plate approach his strike zone management is second to none. The only real question for Meidroth is if he can hit the ball hard enough because of this I slightly lean towards Sogard over Meidroth as a big leaguer but if he doesn’t get bat knocked out of his hand in the bigs he’s a big leaguer as well. There also numerous other very intriguing players talking big steps forward Lugo, Garcia, Jordan etc. this a very deep farm system with position players.
As excited as I am about the position players the pitching in the lower levels is really looking solid. It’s a misnomer when everyone says the Red Sox have no pitching. Unfortunately Perales blew his arm out in a true breakout season and Gonzales didn’t have a good first half and May end up in the pen. The Red Sox do have some starters coming imo the crown jewel from a stuff standpoint is ERC his stuff is big league stuff and pitch mix to be a starter. The other pitchers to watch Paez, Portes, Early, Dobbins, Sandlin, Ingrassia, Monegro despite a slow start to name just a few.
There are also a couple of intriguing guys in the complex league to say nothing of the injured guys like Johanfran who is killing the ball before getting injured. This system is very deep top to bottom. It’s a really exciting time to watch these prospects blossom. Sure there are a few disappointments like Bleis, Zanatello, and Mikey Romero but the good is far outweighing the regression.
Fuolovit1: Well said. Fever Pitch Guy is not a typical poster here. Myself and others have had issues with him.
Big fan of these owners.
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Henry is the best owner in baseball. I’m not sure anyone is a close 2nd.
I have him on mute. The discussions are much more reasonable now.
Good post, but I wouldn’t write off Bleis yet. He got hurt, but has been reasonable relative to his age/level.
Fuolovit1
I’m thrilled with the RS progress.
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The issue is that you are older. I find that older fans enjoy the “process” more. As far as I can see, we are on a great path. We have at least ten key players that are performing well, with control years, and probably another 5+ less-key players performing well.
We have a robust farm with both key players and depth. And we should have spending money, assuming Henry decides to spend.
We have to ability to trade for and/or sign almost anyone we want. These could be the good old days.
Well stated Joe. Agree
We may very well be the silent majority. Lol
Bruin1012 – Glass half full.
So you are saying this group is better than the Theo era when we got Mookie, Bogey, JBJ, Devers
Or the current group of Duran, Houck, Crawford, Rafaela, Bello and Abreu?
The highest these players have played at is AA and only Teel has performed like a star at that level. Mayer is all hype and very little performance. In the futures game, Teel proved he was the #1 prospect in the Red Sox organization and Mayer was completely unimpressive and validated that he didn’t really earn his spot, politics got him on the team.
The jury is out on Anthony after he slowed after a fast start. I am still hopeful for him. Watching the futures game you could see Boston doesn’t compare with good farm systems right now because their star players graduated. Teel was the only one who looked like he belonged yet you’ve declared all the league average guys below him in the minors the best you’ve seen in Boston. There simply is no evidence in the numbers or the visual skills that suggest that is true.
I hope you are right but NOTHING suggests you are. It’s a faith decree on your part and we can all hope it’s true but not set our expectations as if it is.
I don’t see a superstar in Mayer. I see a league average player with lots of hype. I say trade him before people find out he’s really a pretender. Look at all Cowser has accomplished and he was drafted in the pick right after Mayer. That’s what an early pick should perform to not the very average numbers by Mayers. One got to the majors quickly with success the other floundered in AA and is at least two years behind the guy picked right behind him.
Mayer needs a huge comeback to justify being picked 4th overall when several better players were available with far less hype.
dewey – Word is that Fuol is kinda on the younger side and therefore doesn’t know how FSG and the Red Sox operate. You are doing a great job of educating him, gotta teach ’em young.
dewey – Did you see Ortiz after the game tonight? He basically demanded that ownership improve the team at the deadline, good for him!!
Ortiz also called Dombrowski “his guy”, that didn’t go over well with ownership …. but who cares! LOLOLOL!!!
TF – Great post as always!! How appropriate would it be for Cashman to hire Cora this offseason …. I really think it will happen, unless Boonie takes them deep into the postseason.
Did you watch the game tonight? Even Jeter said the O’s will go farther than the Yankees …. wow!!!
TF – Great post as always!! Just one thing, Theo had absolutely nothing to do with the great Devers …. it was all Ben Cherington, who took over after Theo was run out of town.
Hey Dewey. You gotta admit. This Fever guy is offensive. Resorting to personal and patently false posts cuz his tank is empty as a set up to
a dig?
I’ve enjoyed our back and forth. You express your opinion with substantive facts and offer an articulate POV
Others may disagree and point to other substantive facts and arrive at a different POV
I sure think I do the above
Different POV’s is what these boards are all about. I respect your takes despite disagreeing with some
In my brief time in here?
It took this fevered guy 4 pitches to don his RS Debbie Downer Chicken Little persona in the last game vs KC
After the win…. He posts how prophetic he was before the final result.
“Word is?”
Posting personal lies about a poster to attack credibility cuz you got nothin substantive to respectfully debate?
What a joke.
Fuol – You just outed yourself.
Try another account.
Muted.
Troll I think you are underselling Marcelo Mayer nearly all of his issues can be traced to injury issues when healthy he’s good and an excellent prospect. Portland is a difficult hitting environment and he’s hitting well in that environment. I expect that he will be called up to Worcester very soon and my guess is he explodes offensively. Troll, Cowser is a bad example he’s almost three older than Mayer and was drafted out of College. Mayer was drafted out of high school and has had injury issues. When Mayer is healthy he hits I think Mayer is a certain big leaguer and probably a really good one. Will he be a superstar probably not the odds are against him but his ceiling is high and his floor at this point is pretty high barring injuries. In short he’s a really good prospect. With that said I have advocated if he can bring back an arm like Crochet I would do it imo out of the big three he’s who I would move for an impact arm. It’s not because I think he’s overrated it’s because Story is already signed through 2027 and Rafaela is a ready made backup at short.
I stand by my assertion that this might be the deepest farm the Red Sox have had since I really paid attention closely to this farm system. It’s the depth of the top 30 on this team that’s most impressive. There have been times in the past where the top has had better prospects but this farm does have hair at the top but it’s the depth of the system with offensive talent mostly at the higher levels and the pitching at the lower levels. This a deep farm system.
I agree with you on Teel he’s the catcher of the future for Boston. He’s a line drive hitting machine and he seems to be growing into more power. I wouldn’t want to trade him he’s untouchable in my book. I’m a huge Roman Anthony fan his power potential is enormous. His swing is gorgeous it reminds of JD Drew’s swing with more power potential his plate discipline is excellent as well. I think he is going to be a superstar that hits 30 plus bombs a year the guy just turned 20 he’s still growing into his body he’s going to be a monster and I would be loathe to trade him.
Kristian Campbell is another breakout with star potential. His season can’t be ignored he has soared up the prospect ranks he came out of college as a slash and dasher but very athletic with good physical attributes. He has really blossomed with his power this year and seems to have really taken to his instruction to tap into more of his natural power. It’s very possible he is the steal of the 2023 draft. Just look at what he has done this year I know your a stats guy and few in the minors have had better stats then this guy.
I know you hate Bloom and he had faults but building the farm isn’t one of them. It’s very possible actually likely that under Bloom the draft steals of the last two drafts are Anthony and Campbell. I know you hate everything Bloom and I’m certaintly not going to advocate him over DD a Hall of Fame GM but when it comes to building a quality farm Bloom did well. Is this current crop going to be better than our current crop of youngish big leaguers my guess yea I think they will be better and certainly younger when they impact the big leagues. I love the current crop of players but imo none of the outfielders have the enormous upside of 20 year old Roman Anthony. Kyle Teel is .300 hitting catcher waiting to happen and Marcelo Mayer, when healthy, is going to a very good big leaguer. I see Nick Yorke as a big leaguer he seems to be sticking with the process this year and not getting pull happy even when he started slow in AA Portland this year he’s stayed with the all fields line drive approach he’s kinda the forgotten man but I think he’s very likely a big league second baseman just probably not with Boston. I think it’s a very exciting time to be a Red Sox fan and I see a lot of impact talent coming.
@Bruin. I absolutely agree on the college vs. HS difference. Your typical college (JR) pick is three years older and two years more advanced than a HS draftee. This is why Teel (drafted in 2023) is at roughly the same level as Mayer (drafted in 2021). A high school pick still has stuff to learn in A ball, while a college pick from a top program should advance quickly to AA without any challenges.
You keep suggesting that Yorke’s future is “not with Boston”. Is this because you see Grissom coming back to lock down the job? I’m not confident that Grissom is better than Yorke, now that the latter has fixed his approach.
I’m not one to insist that a player has to become an All-Star to justify a first round pick. Historically, across the league, most first round picks don’t achieve much. If Yorke, Mayer, and Teel can hold down starting jobs for 3-5 years they are already ahead of the game there.
The tenth most successful player from the first round of the 2013 draft (as measured by B-R WAR) was the eminently forgettable Austin Meadows. The 14th and 15th were Arroyo and McGuire. The Red Sox blew a high pick that year on Trey Ball, who was one of the seven first-rounders to not even make the majors. Meanwhile, pretty much every team in the league passed on Aaron Judge before the Yankees took him with the #32 pick.
ttff, I’m basing my likelihood of Yorke being traded on the fact that Grissom was brought in a trade by the new chief and is unlikely to give up on him this quickly. I think Yorke, if not traded and given a fair chance, would have a 50/50 chance to bee the next Red Sox second baseman. Sadly I don’t think he gets that chance with Boston too much on the line for Breslow but he will be a big league second baseman I’m sure of that just probably with another team.
@Bruin, I would have agreed with you in March, but at this point we have a vacancy at the position, Yorke is playing very well (and is just ONE promotion away), and Grissom is still on the shelf. Multiple pundits have talked about the Red Sox “need” for a 2B, but to me it would make sense to give Yorke a look first? Even if only for the two weeks leading up to the deadline?
No objection to using either or both as a trading chip, but would like to see the 2B position solidified before that happens.
July 11
Red Sox skipper Alex Cora offered an endorsement for WooSox utility man Nick Sogard, leaving speculation as to whether he’ll earn a big league promotion.
“(Nick Sogard), he’s playing great; he’s doing an outstanding job,” Cora said to reporters before Wednesday night’s game at Fenway Park. “Playing good defense, putting good at bats from the left side and right side, just got to make sure people know it, right? That’s what I’m doing right now, and that’s a player. When people are talking about you and you’re in Triple-A, you know you’re on the radar. It’s just a matter of time.”
I’d sure go with Yorke. But it appears that Cora is leaning towards Sogard if they choose to use a can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube 40 man spot as the next man up at 2B
Bruin1012 – I know how keenly you watch the youngsters but when the experience level is mostly below AA I don’t know how you can talk about Bloom’s picks as being so outstanding. If they haven’t faced AA pitching they haven’t really been tested and looking at the ROK and A and Hi-A numbers, nobody jumps out as a future star.
Teel has done many things that suggest he is special. His futures game performance is just one of them. It’s only one game but watching the swings, the defense and the overall maturity I think Teel is far more mature and skilled than Mayer. As to my Cowser comparison, my point is Cowser was available to Bloom and we could have had him as another great outfielder who would be right behind Duran in his development but Bloom chose a CALI short stop in high school and he’s not flourished in the minors as expected. Injuries have set him back but even before the injury he was not flourishing like an early first round pick. So your optimism is expected but we haven’t seen the evidence that it is justified. Cowser would have helped Boston sooner and for a career I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a significantly higher WAR because he has significantly higher talent.
Mookie played in Portaland at 21 and hit .355 with a .994 OPS
Mayer drafted several rounds earlier and hyped to be a star unlike Mookie has hit .301 at age 21 in 2024 with an OPS of .837 and that’s his best numbers to date and he’s played in 74 games at AA this year and 43 last year. Mookie played in just 54 games and got promoted to AAA where he hit .335 with a .920 OPS at age 21. Devers played at Portland at age 20 like Mayer and hit.300 with a .944 OPS compared to Mayer’s failure at age 20 at AA with his .189 average and .609 OPS. Boston prematurely promoted Devers so he was in the majors by the time he was Mayer’s age. Bogaerts got to Portland at 19 a year earlier than Mayer. Bogaerts hit .319 with an OPS of .926. Then, at 20 he hit .311 with an OPS of .909. He was in Boston by the end of his 20 year old season.
I just gave you three examples of what a player heading for an all-star future did in the minors. There were no excuses of injuries or weather. Why should Mayer get a flamboyant projection like yours when he’s done NOTHING to deserve it. He’s far behind the curve for the publicity he’s getting. His best comp based on hype is Jeter Downs. Let’s hope he doesn’t prove to be that over hyped. He still looks to me to be a league average player not extraordinary at average or power but with some decent speed. His glove is better than Devers but he’s no great shakes at fielding either. Maybe he has an excellent eye and doesn’t swing at pitches off the plate so far through AA pitching. That’s about as positive as I can go considering the data and how he looked against good competition in the futures game. Teel was picked by Bloom and I really liked what I saw and I like his numbers. It’s not a Bloom thing, it’s a performance thing and most of Bloom’s picks haven’t faced AA pitching so I can’t get on the same page with you about Bloom’s picks. Maybe some of his picks will emerge as quality players but they haven’t so far. There is a huge gap between Boston’s farm system and the rest of the AL East thanks to the unheralded stars proving the experts wrong about how great they are. Duran just won the MVP of the All-Star game and most experts wouldn’t give him the time of day two years ago because he wasn’t hyped by the right players because he was DD’s choice not Bloom’s! That’s how the politics of baseball works. Cherington was all over Swihart not Mookie so he came out of nowhere to be the best player in Boston since Yaz or Ted. Duran has no emerged and lets hope they can figure out how to sign him long term. In a year or two he will be out performing Devers on a regular basis.
Sogard could fill the roster spot occupied by Valdez and now Westbrook…
Rafaela has been playing 80% of the starts at shortstop, with Hamilton getting the other 20% as well as (maybe) 40% of the starts at second base. Sogard would be an upgrade over Hamilton defensively (better arm) at shortstop and would allow Hamilton to focus on 2B. Sogard could also help out defensively at 2B/3B.
He’s a pretty low-ceiling player, but he isn’t going to learn anything further from staying in the minors. He is Rule 5 eligible this winter (as is Yorke), so he would need to be added to the 40-man roster by then or left exposed to the draft — or traded.
Bruin1012 – Kristian Campbell is clearly a guy who makes sense to be high on. It’s been less than 100 games in the minors but he’s done well so far. I will say he has started more like Mayer should have started and does have some excellent potential if he can continue to play at an advanced level. He may be the SS Boston needs or he may be the 2B Boston needs if Mayer comes around or if Story gets healthy and can play in 2024. My guess is Campbell needs at least 50 more games at AA without falling off dramatically. That could get him a starting job at AAA in 2025. If 2025 is a success then he should be up by late 2025. That is a lot of ifs and I hope they all turn out successfully. His defense looks to be solid so to me he currently projects a better MLB career than Mayer but it is very early. Another 100 games in the minors and we’ll have far more evidence.
Good research on him. I haven’t seen him play but he seems to have decent speed and a solid glove in the infield and outfield . It seems like we have a lot of 2B/OF types in the minors and he looks to be the best of the bunch. His upside to me is well beyond guys like Hamilton, Wong, Gonzalez and the rest of the iF/OF prospects.
Totally agree, Campbell is an athlete to watch. Could imagine him at either 2B or LF/CF, though he doesn’t have a great arm.
Supposedly the scouts don’t like his swing, think he is cheating a little, and that ML pitchers will find holes in it? Maybe so, but I wouldn’t bet against him making the necessary adjustments.
I was excited when he was pounding the ball for Greenville. For him to step up to Portland — a tough hitters park — and *improve* as he did is a real eye-opener.
The best talents are able to adjust quickly without missing a beat. He sure looks like the real thing… Hard to believe that 131 players were taken ahead of him in the draft, but I guess his swing wasn’t built for power at the time?
Troll I don’t really compare to Mookie he was special from the beginning. I didn’t follow the farm nearly as closely then but I had sources that told me he when he was in AA Ball he might be the best player in the organization including the big leagues. Mookie is special and has continued to prove he’s special. Still I believe in Mayer and think he is an excellent prospect. I certainly wouldn’t compare him to Mookie but then again Mookie is a hall of fame generational talent the odds are against any of the current Red Sox prospects being that. If I had to rank the big three for upside I would have to Anthony, Teel, and Mayer in that order. Floor I would go Teel, Mayer, and Anthony. I think we have miscommunication here I never said Mayer was as good as Mookie, Boogie, or Devers I simply said he was an excellent prospect just because he’s likely not as good as those three one a hall of famer, one one of the best hitters in baseball doesn’t mean he can’t have a very good career which is where I think he will be. There is nothing wrong with that and he will be a very valuable player.
Troll, I have watched most of Greenville and Portlands games this year. Campbell first got on my radar last year when he got to Greenville after being drafted in the 4th round in 2023 I think ironically compensation for losing Bogey to free agency. He finished at High A Greenville where he helped to win the Sally League Championship. He caught my eye but he was more of slasher no real power but from beggining this year they unlocked much more from his 6’3” 200 pounds. He really started impacting the ball with spin and they are starting to leave the yard. He’s unusual hitter he’s probably going to get hit by more and more pitches as he goes up levels he dives in on the ball but really attacks it has some characteristics of Mookie’s swing. I’m not saying he’s Mookie just some of the dive quick wrists dares you to throw inside but can cover the outside and even a bit off. It’s not a Roman Anthony picture perfect swing but hard to argue with the results. He’s really fun to watch very enthusiastic. There’s another guy that is coming onto my Radar at Greenville and that’s Johstnxon Garcia he’s really starting to blossom and not many guys in the minors hit it harder then this guy he smashes the ball just like his youngerJohanfran Garcia who sadly tore his knee up rounding first he was off to a smashing start with Salem he also hammers the ball two solid under the radar prospects.
KD: I have told you before that I agree with you that it is about acquiring talent and not about how much you spend. Please remember this. I think I have told you this more than once.
@Bruin, how would you slot Campbell, Bleis, and Cespedes into that? My sense is that all three have potentially higher upside than Teel or Mayer, but much lower floors — am most curious how you would comp Campbell vs. Anthony?
Betting the Red Sox could land Crochet if they were to offer Anthony in the package. Far less certain that it makes sense for the Red Sox to do so.
Mayer is a lesser prospect than Anthony, but they don’t really have a replacement for him unless Rafaela commits to SS permanently. Next possible shortstop in the system would be Zanetello or Arias, and no certainty that either will ever be a ML starter.
I gotta respectfully disagree with you on one thing. Mayer’s ceiling is as high as anthony and Teel and the “will he be a superstar” question answered in the probably not category can be asked about almost all prospects. other than that I agree with pretty much everything you said
trolled is KD17 btw. That said he’s had it out for Mayer since he was drafted most likely because he’s a Bloom pick who got a lot of hype
Tff17 Imo no one has more upside then Anthony. He has a chance to be special you just can’t teach that kind of power. His power is effortless his swing is beautiful I just see a special offensive talent. I liken him to JD Drew with more power that’s my comp for him.
I haven’t seen Cespedes or Arias play so I would just be regurgitating what I’ve read about those guys. I think Bleis is the biggest boom bust guy in the system. Bleis looks lost at the plate at times and he’s going to have to get better pitch recognition. I’m just not convinced he’s going to figure it out.
After the big three I like Campbell the most. He can play any defensive position and he is the type of hitter I love. He’s aggressive but doesn’t swing at a lot of pitches off the plate will always probably be a decent on base guy and if he can continue to hit the ball as hard as he has this year the sky’s the limit for him. It remains to be seen if higher velocity in AAA or the bigs can be his kryptonite since he dives into the pitch so aggressively but so far his wrists have been up to the challenge. He’s probably the biggest moving prospect in the 2023 draft.
tff17
Yorke is playing very well (and is just ONE promotion away),
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This is exactly why I think he will be traded. He’s close to the big show, and his value might never be higher. Three years ago, I thought he was untouchable. But 2022 was weak, and 2023 even weaker. 122 Ks in 444 AA ABs is worrisome. Maybe he tweaked his approach, and maybe that is permanent.
I don’t think we can get Crochet without one of the big 3, but if we did, I think the package would have to start with Yorke +++.
most likely because he’s a Bloom pick
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I cannot take seriously anyone who judges prospects based on which GM drafted them.
Yorke, Bleis, and their pick of a pitching prospect? That would be a pretty sweet package for the White Sox, and wouldn’t really impact the Red Sox plans.
that’s exactly what KD 17 and Fever pitch guy do. probably why no sensible people on this site take them seriously
Fever – Does the name Jose Zapata ring any bells? Theo installed him as the director of the Dominican Republic Baseball Academy for the teams representing the Boston Red Sox in 2007.
Zapata identified a 14 year old player named Rafael Devers as a player they were to sign when he was old enough. Zapata built a great relationship with Devers and his family despite two other teams wanting him.
Yes, Cherington was the beneficiary who signed the player Theo’s guy built a relationship with. Cherington can’t take credit for anything more than signing a piece of paper, Theo is responsible for all the activity that led to Devers’ signing.
The pipeline that exists today between the Academy and the Red Sox is a result of Theo’s work. Cherington simply inherited it when he became GM.
Thanks to this relationship through Zapata Devers’ has been allowed to be the Butcher of Boston and received an excessive contract for a one-dimensional player. It’s a double edged sword that was forged back in 2007. Great hitter bad fielder and everyone from the DR to the minors to Cora have all lied about just how bad he is defensively. The score keepers have allowed him to fool the public with the terrible but apparently acceptable .944 fielding percentage for 8 seasons. In reality, the factual fielding percentage would be under .900 but the score keepers are very, very generous to Devers and have killed the Boston pitching stats since he arrived in 2017.
All – You have told me many times but then you focus on money over and over so it seems like you agree on the one hand and disagree by your focus on the money and who is spending the most and producing the least. It’s confusing so I respond with a reminder simply because what you wrote contradicts with you just wrote to me. If you agree, and I believe that’s what you just said, then the next time you go on and on about money and results I will NOT respond as I have in the past to set the record straight. I will know down deep you don’t really think the money is relevant.
Bruin1012 – You use superlatives with regard to Mayer. I guess that’s just me. Those should be used with players that deserve it or have earned it. That’s why I wanted to put into perspective just how much less of a player Mayer is than those who deserve the superlatives you use. I know you haven’t compared Mayer to them, you’ve simply raved about Mayer like you do true stars like Mookie, Bogie and Devers (offense only). And like I mentioned, the Cowser comparison was a simple this is what we could have had and how it would have helped Boston sooner. I realize HS players take longer to develop, that’s why many teams focus on college players in the early part of the first round and Bloom chose the long route while destroying his current team. If that’s not illogical I don’t know what is!! At least he didn’t take a HS pitcher!!
Having a very good career like you are suggesting needs to be quantifiable. For me, I expected Benintendi to have a very good career after his first season with Boston. As his career OPS+ changes it’s become apparent that his career will be above league average but not significantly above league average. For me, that’s not a very good career it’s simply a good career. A career OPS+ of 115 give or take 5 is a good career. Over 120, is a very good career and 130 or more is an outstanding career. They are benchmarks of my own opinion and I’m sure there are exceptions but as a standard yardstick for success, it works for me. I put Mayer in the 110 to 120 OPS+ range as of now.. I put Casas over 120 and possibly over 130 for his career. I see Rafaela as a 125ish career but it’s so early over time that probably will be revised. I’ve been saying Houck is the best young pitcher on the staff since 2020 and that Cora messed him up the one bad year he had. I think he has a great chance of being an ace for many years.
Your ceiling and floor projections are very reasonable. I would have put Mayer 3rd at both with Anthony having the highest ceiling and Teel the highest floor.
Campbell is my new focus. I trust your judgement that he is worthy of following closer because of his upside.
TFF17 – I think it will take a lot more. Bleis’ stock has fallen, Yorke is trying to raise his with the help of the front office but he’s not yet considered as highly as he was two years ago.
I hope your deal happens but I think CWS will get much better offers.
KD: Cool. The results is what matters, not the amount spent. I only post dollar amounts to show that teams have spent much less than the Red Sox and won more and spent much more than the Red Sox and hardly won more.
The Red Sox can be competitive on their current budget if they draft and develop well. More money always helps, though.
The Orioles had the first overall pick several times. Not sure that is even possible any more with the new draft lottery? But even if it were possible, I wouldn’t want the Red Sox to be THAT bad for THAT long.
There is also no way that the Red Sox will ever qualify for the Competitive Balance picks.
Best to pick a high/mid-market team to model your strategy after. Maybe the Braves? The Red Sox are unwilling to spend like the Yankees or Dodgers, and don’t have the small-market advantages of the Rays or Orioles, so those models aren’t a good fit.
You really give ownership credit for the unexpected pitching and surprise of Hamilton?
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Yes. If they are going to get blamed when things go wrong, then they have to get credit when things go right.
Sorry Joe but Hamilton if anything says the opposite. If you believed in him and Bloom, the latter would still be running the club. I’m not sure if Bailey approached the Sox as a former player or if that truly was Breslow but it’s unlikely ownership called him.
Joe – So you think people are blamed when things go wrong.
Break down go wrong for me. If a player doesn’t have talent. Yes they are blamed for wasting the money. If they can’t field, yes because that’s simply a lock of talent. When a ball takes a bad hop? Nobody gets blamed, we just cuss. Go wrong is such a non specifc phrase that your generalization is meaningless. MISTAKES define when fans blame people.
Hamilton is a pretender. He has great speed but most who watched him said you can’t steal first base so his value is minimal. If you watch him field, you understand how much talent he is lacking. Is he hot? Sure Will it last? No, he’s Kiki Hernandez the .239 hitter with a different face under his hat.
If Breslow’s coaches can help create the unlikely hot streaks, then they deserve the credit because it doesn’t change the skill level enough to move him from below league average to all-star or above league average. That’s why all fans can do is be thankful the new coaches can help create hot streaks in very bad players.
Joe – Your comment about taking people seriously made me laugh considering the comments you make regularly.
If you understood more about baseball you would realize that the GM who selects a prospect does matter. In fact, I wrote a long documentation of how bad Bloom was at drafting compared to DD. And DD did it well in many organizations dating back 30 years. Bloom didn’t have his TB experts who were good at it when he came to Boston and he failed miserably. So yes, the GM matters and the evidence has already been presented.
I cant’ take people seriously when they don’t have tangible knowledge of the game of baseball they just like to spew stuff that makes sense to them from their very limited perspective as armchair baseball fan.
Fuol – We are all enjoying what’s transpired thus far this season. Question is, will the Sox continue to play better than expected after the break? And will ownership allow for quality additions at the deadline?
We will find out soon enough if we should believe in this team, and if ownership believes in them. One thing is certain, they need at least one good starting pitcher and a good RHB.
I see Bello is off to his usual ineffectiveness today, homerun pitch to the first batter in the game.
OTOH, at least the Sox backed off of Snell.
let – I don’t think they were ever in on Snell, they never mentioned as such from what I remember.
My understanding is that the Red Sox expressed some interest in Montgomery, but it wasn’t reciprocated. Lugo would have been a great signing on a 3-4 year deal. Any concerns from his history are balanced by the shorter guarantee.
Not unhappy with the way the Red Sox pitching is shaping up, but they could dearly use another mid-rotation arm. They are leaning too heavily on Houck and Crawford, and only Houck has the kind of pedigree that I’d be comfortable hanging my hat on.
I’ve been out of touch for a couple weeks, but seems like Bello and Pivetta have been up and down? And no real answer as the #5 starter? That’s where an acquisition would help.
tff – Glad to see you back, I was worried you gave up on the team.
Bello’s game against Oakland was insane! First 10 outs of the game were ALL STRIKEOUTS!!! And he did a really nice job of shutting down a good offense yesterday. It was great to see Jansen get a 2-inning save, he’s having an excellent year.
Pivetta has always been up-and-down, overall he’s a solid #3 on this team because when he’s on he’s unhittable.
The big story of the pitching staff has been Crawford, he’s pounding the zone like crazy …. took a 1-hitter into the 8th, first time he’s ever pitched into the 8th! And he’s throwing like 79% strikes, in fact he started the game Saturday with like 14 straight first-pitch strikes.
The offense hasn’t changed, Duran and Devers are totally carrying the team. Should be a fun stretch coming up against the Dodgers and Yankees.
Nah, haven’t given up on anything, just in a very different time zone. Will be home soon.
Good to see Bello is back on track, and I’m officially a believer in Pivetta. Still think it leaves the team one quality starter short, Winck looked good against a weak offense but not so good against a competitive team. Seems to be the same for Criswell.
Rafaela looking better at shortstop? Just need a good 2B solution, wondering if Yorke would upgrade over Hamilton/Westbrook?
And a big RHH bat would be nice at DH.
TFF – How about my man Duran the MVP!!! Maybe the Sox will sweep the awards this season ….. Devers winning AL MVP, Houck winning the Cy Young Award, and Abreu winning Rookie of the Year!!!!
Missed the game, was in the air at the time. But loved his post-game comments! I’m very hopeful that the Red Sox will put their calculators away and sign him to a six year deal — Duran is somebody you want to build around.
Devers as AL MVP? That one is a stretch!
Rafaela could insert himself into the ROTY conversation with a strong second half.
tff – Since April 1st it’s just Devers and Judge neck and neck for highest OPS in the league. Sure it may take a Judge slump or injury, but it could still definitely happen! Of course that’s assuming Devers’ shoulder doesn’t get worse.
Yeah Duran is really special. He looked and sounded so nervous and shy during that interview, definitely trying to control his anxiety issues. But the way he spoke so highly of his All-Star teammates, you could tell it was 100% genuine. I think last night elevated him to icon level, if the Sox trade him the fanbase will be livid.
Fever, you had 2 posts about Abreu on AS game day, and, not one mention of the suit he showed up in.
I think you’re slipping 😉
Judge, Henderson, Soto, Devers, Witt… And a couple of those guys play pretty good defense too.
Devers is a solid hitter, a rock in the lineup, but he doesn’t bring the complete package to the table. I’d have an easier time seeing Duran as the MVP than Devers, especially if the Red Sox were to make some waves like taking the AL East. Duran is indisputably the spiritual leader of the club.
GASox – You’re right, I should have mentioned it! Duran was the star, on and off the field! Let’s hope ownership recognizes that value and extends him before he’s a free agent.
tff – Being an exceptional all-around player isn’t a requirement for MVP, although it certainly helps.
Case in point: Miggy 2012-2013. He was awful at 3B but still took home MVP each of those two years.
So are you saying Ohtani doesn’t have a chance this year because he’s a DH?
No, I’m saying Devers doesn’t have a chance because he isn’t Miggy or Ohtani. There isn’t a single category in which he leads the league, nothing to wow the voters. You can sometimes make an argument for good all-around players like Duran, even if they don’t lead in any single category, but as you say that doesn’t apply to Devers.
Duran is also a stronger leader. Devers is a foundational piece on the team, but Duran is the team MVP this year.
tff – Without question an argument can be made for Duran as team MVP.
But with Devers we are talking about league MVP, which is heavily weighted by offensive stats. Sure it’s not always the best hitter who wins it, but for someone like Duran to win it they’ve got to be in the ballpark with regard to offensive stats. As great as Duran is, he’s not in the ballpark offensively with just a .819 OPS (33rd in MLB). Doesn’t matter how great he is defensively, and despite his speed his SB’s are miles behind guys like Elly and Brice in MLB. Duran doesn’t even lead the team in SB’s.
Also why are you discounting the first three weeks of the season when Devers was awful because of injury?
Bottom line, even including the first 3 weeks of the season Devers is 3rd in OPS, 4th in HR, and 2nd in SLG. It’s basically him and Judge for best two hitters in the league, with Soto behind them who BTW could easily take MVP votes away from Judge. To rule out Devers as a legit MVP candidate is silly, as always health will be a huge factor.
I know I’m usually an eternal optimist, but the numbers are there to support the possibility!
Oh, did you mean “since May 1” above when you wrote April 1? I hadn’t looked at that split, though I see he is #4 in wOBA and #6 in wRC+ over that span. Second in OPS as you say.
That said, Judge is head and shoulders ahead of him. I would expect Judge to be the consensus MVP, as he is very clearly having a better season than Soto or Devers by any metric.
To fully appreciate Duran you have to factor in near-GG quality defense in CF, strong clutch hitting (.313 with RISP), and his “nails” attitude to showing up and playing hard. He is far more than just the best baserunner in the league (stolen bases are only part of the picture). So while OPS is “only” 16th best in the AL, he would be a top five MVP candidate in my book. I’m certain he will be included on at least some ballots (since the voting goes five deep).
tff – I just wanted a clean cutoff so I used April 1, here’s the link to it: fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?startdate=2024-…
I agree with you on Judge, that’s why I said it would basically require a Judge slump or injury (not wishing it, but he has been somewhat injury prone). The MVP is his to lose, I don’t deny that.
No need to sell me on Duran, I think I’ve more than shown how much I love the guy! I totally agree he will get MVP votes, after all there’s usually around 24 guys in each league who get MVP votes. Devers got votes last year, even though he clearly wasn’t an MVP contender.
tff – One of my favorite days of the summer is today …. next year’s schedule is out!!!
They open with a weekend series in Texas, also have a weekend series in Tampa and San Diego. Really looking forward to attending those games, my family vacations revolve around the Red Sox schedule. LOL!
In Baltimore on March 31 …. brrrrrr!
Triston Casas sees a Yankees series in your future!
tff – What do you mean? Did he visualize playing the Yankees next weekend? Or did he visualize playing in Yankee Stadium September 12th? LOL!!
Check out the tweet of the schedule announcement.
x.com/RedSox/status/1813996848736289087
Was a better pic before, shared on NESN.com, but can’t find that one now.