The Rangers are the defending World Series champions but they currently sport a record of 46-50 that has them 7.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. They’re five games out in the AL West, where they trail the Mariners and Astros. With less than two weeks until the trade deadline, general manager Chris Young will have some decisions to make but is currently hoping his players make the decision for him.
“We are going to do everything we can to win this year,” Young tells Joel Sherman of The New York Post, though he also left some ambiguity by adding that he “wants to take as much time as possible to make a choice and hope in the next week [the results] make it clear we are buyers.”
The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently give them a 12.3% chance at cracking the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are slightly more optimistic at 18.2%. Young and his staff will presumably be discussing all kinds of trade scenarios with other clubs in the coming days, as the Rangers host the Orioles for three games, the White Sox for four and then cross the northern border to play three in Toronto. They will then start a three-game set in St. Louis but the deadline will be on July 30, after just one game against the Cardinals.
It’s an interesting spot for Young and the Rangers to be in, with potential arguments for buying, selling or some kind of combination. The argument in favor of buying would largely hinge on the club having much better health in the second half than in the first.
On the position player side, both Evan Carter and Josh Jung are currently on the injured list. Carter struggled over the first two months of the season, hitting just .188/.272/.361 while battling back tightness that eventually put him on the shelf. Manager Bruce Bochy later described it as a stress reaction, per Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News, with the timeline still unclear. Jung has only played four games this year before being hit by a pitch and suffering a wrist fracture that required surgery. His rehab assignment was shut down a few weeks ago due to continued discomfort and his ramp-up is also somewhat murky.
On the pitching side, Andrew Heaney has been the only consistent rotation member. Each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Lorenzen and Jon Gray spent some time on the injured list, though each is currently active. Max Scherzer had offseason back surgery and began the season on the IL, then had his return delayed by a thumb injury. He has missed most of this season so far but returned in recent weeks and has taken the ball five times this year.
The rotation could be getting further reinforcements, with both Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle working back from Tommy John surgeries they underwent last summer. Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford are also on the IL and could return later in the year.
That theoretically stronger rotation and the possible returns of Carter and/or Jung could perhaps inspire the club to push hard at the deadline, hoping to gain steam for a strong second half. But it could also be an argument for doing some selling. Hypothetically, if everyone were to be healthy at some point in the coming months, the club would have nine rotation candidates in deGrom, Scherzer, Eovaldi, Gray, Mahle, Heaney, Lorenzen, Bradford and Dunning.
The club probably doesn’t want to bank on all of them being healthy at the same time, so they wouldn’t necessarily need to trim the number to five. Dunning has often pitched in relief and can be kept there. Bradford has a 1.40 ERA this year but in a small sample of three starts. Despite the strong results, the Rangers would be justified in optioning him to the minors if he were blocked by their more established guys.
But that still leaves seven solid veteran options that could all be healthy in the weeks to come. Perhaps the club will feel they could trade an impending free agent or two without really “selling” here in 2024 or hurting themselves too much in the future, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at in a piece for Front Office subscribers. Lorenzen is on a one-year deal and set to return to the open market at season’s end. Heaney is in the final season of his two-year deal.
Scherzer is also slated for free agency at season’s end but has a full no-trade clause. He was recently asked on Foul Territory about waiving it again, as he did to come to the Rangers from the Mets, with that show relaying video on X. Scherzer said “I’m not gonna do that” before elaborating that he thought the club would play better and make it a moot point.
Eovaldi is in the final guaranteed year of his deal though there’s a vesting player option for 2025 he could potentially unlock. There were three ways for him to unlock that player option, though one of them involved making the 2024 All-Star team. Since he wasn’t chosen, he’s down to two paths. His best chance is to get to 300 combined innings pitched over 2023 and 2024. He’s currently at 238 and therefore 62 shy of the line, which he should be able to cross if he stays healthy the rest of the year. His other path to unlocking the player option is to finish in the top five in Cy Young voting. That option muddies any trade the Rangers might consider and he has limited trade protection on his deal as well.
Gray and Mahle each have one year left of their deals, making them at least somewhat plausible trade candidates, though moving them would hurt the club’s chances next year. With Scherzer, Heaney and Lorenzen slated for free agency after 2024, the Rangers might want to keep Gray and Mahle in the mix for 2025 alongside deGrom, Bradford, Dunning and maybe Eovaldi.
If the Rangers end up more firmly in the seller camp, they would have those aforementioned pitchers to market, as well as impending free agents David Robertson, José Leclerc, Kirby Yates, José Ureña, Travis Jankowski and Robbie Grossman. Based on Young’s comments, it sounds like it would take a rough performance in the coming weeks for them to sell, but those would be the options. Sherman also floats the possibility of Adolis García or Nathaniel Lowe being available, though each is arbitration controlled through 2026 and it doesn’t seem as though something that drastic is on the table, though it could always come about if some club comes in with an offer that can’t be refused.
Like many other clubs around the league, the Rangers are set for a pseudo postseason push in the weeks to come. With the buyer and seller paths both seemingly on the table, the Texas season will be on the line in the coming weeks, at least to an extent. As Young and his crew have to decide how hard to push in one direction or the other, the upcoming part of the schedule could perhaps define the team for the months that follow.
Maybe Jon Daniels has some ideas? He basically built the team before CY splurged in FA.
If the owner wants the team to go around in circles for the next 5 years or so, Mr. Daniels is defiantly the one to call.
I dunno. Ownership opened up pocketbooks for injured pitchers after CY came aboard but the foundation was from Daniels. Lowe, Carter, Garcia, Jung, Heim, seager, semien, gray.
He built the team for the new stadium. They underperformed in year one, he got canned, and CY reaped the benefit.
Montgomery, Heaney, Eovaldi, Yates, David Robertson, scherzer, garver.
Yeah. Cy did nothing.
And lorenzen
Rented Montgomery, who was big part of getting over the top.
Hey! Almond joys are awful, I have always treated you with respect, even though I enjoy almond joys and hate mounds. Yet you do not show me the same? I never said CY did nothing. I said he splurged on pitching.
Thats what put the team over the top. But, it’s also what’s sinking the team when it’s coupled with the Bally situation.
Also how can anyone deny the core players in the field are from the Daniels regime? Isnt almost everyone a Daniels acquisition on the championship team (non-pitcher)?
We’ll have to agree to disagree and I do apologize if I came across as short
The team has quotes that when the rangers traded for scherzer last year, the team knew management was in it so they knew they needed to step up.
And we do agree that adding Montgomery was essential for them to win the ws. They wouldn’t have done it without him. I was second guessing them not resigning Montgomery, but lorenzens been so much better and cheaper
I really liked John Daniel’s early on but I believe the his tenure lasted too long. He even admitted it was time for him to go. His biggest flaw, imo, was a need to be fully in charge. Every manager he hired was a first year manager, and the only one that worked was Washington.
Cy surrounds himself with good people. Bringing in bochy and maddux (who admitted he never wanted to leave but couldnt agree with “management”) was essential. I was so tired of seeing Woodward and banister mismanage situations and teams.
Cy also is bringing a pitching culture, something the dfw area have been a screaming about since Perry and Jenkins left. Some of the moves haven’t worked out (degrom) but it sends a message to players that this isn’t the team that had to rely on home runs and hoping fourth starters can win game 1 of playoffs. Eovaldi, scherzer, lorenzen, Heaney, gray, Bradford, Montgomery, and even guys like urena and pre-2024 dunning are all solid starting pitchers in the last 12 months. That is so much different than previous ranger teams
Pitching has not been a problem this year
This year has been the rangers can’t hit a fastball and the coaches don’t understand why. They did last year
Ballys screwed the rangers in the offseason, but cy still was able to sign Yates and Robertson
I think he’s done a fantastic job and also think he has an extremely tough decision in the next two weeks.
Almond joy. I can’t do point for point but I think we agree on most points. I think JD needed to leave. But he built a solid base for a contender. CY did an amazing job filling in those missing pieces to make the team a legit WS threat.
In his position while “technically” working under Daniels (the President of Baseball Operations), CY is the one that actually recruited and persuaded both Seager and Semien to sign (though the fat contracts didn’t hurt). It was his multiple late November conversations with both Seager and Semien convinced both of them to sign contracts the day before the owner lockout in December ’21. In fact, Semien was touted as one of 4 or 5 all–star level FA shortstops available (along with Seager) that year. He had always been a SS, but Toronto convinced him to play 2nd in a nicely paid, one year deal for the ’21 season. He agreed and became an All Star 2nd baseman that year, but still wanted to be a SS. It was CY that convinced him to sign and stay at 2nd alongside Seager at Short. Ever since his hiring in December ’20 as the Rangers’ Executive Vice President and General Manager, CY was really in charge of the show. Ray Davis let Daniels retain the President of Baseball Operations title and he was still allowed to handle much of the day-to-day minutiae of the team, but Daniels knew he was a lame duck from that point forward. Behind the scenes CY got some OJT on those day-to-day operational issues, but certainly did all the heavy lifting when it came to future acquisitions, hiring a new manager for the also lame duck Woodward, all outside MLB business, and likely 95-99% of organizational dealings with ownership. Daniels didn’t do squat to get them over the hump of medocracy they’d been stuck in since the World Series heydays of a decade before.
@fartcop Lowe, seager, semien, gray, Heim all acquired under Cy tenure.
I would think the WC Champions have a run or 2 in them to go say 16-10 in their next 26 games. They should pickup a (2) complementary hitter types to help their offense. In their own division competing with SEA and HOU but they only have a grab a WC. If deGrom comes back and pitches well that would help a lot.
With all the $ TEX has invested in Seager, Semien, deGrom, Scherzer, Eovaldi etc.
I think one of Benintendi, Eloy Jimenez, Pham and Lane Thomas would be good targets. If I was WASH I would keep Thomas.
Pham has talent and can work if he has a strong leadership in the clubhouse and manager. There are risks to chemistry of team.
Maybe even ask about Alonso and use as a DH the rest of the year.
I meant to include Miguel Andujar as a player to target.
If they go 8-4 in their next 12 games and the Mariners go 5-7 in their next 12, which is what both teams did their last 12 games, then the Rangers are a game back of the Mariners. They still may be in 3rd place behind the Astros and Mariners, but that will be a tight race in the West with 2 months to go.
The Rangers are closer to winning the West than grabbing a WC. .
First of all I don’t think anyone built some juggernaut of a team to win the World Series they got hot when it mattered and won via the play in spot of the wildcard. But that being said they couldn’t have won it without the aggressive acquisitions at the deadline. If they hadn’t won much in the playoffs he’d probably be crucified for betting on a team that barely made it in so I think you gotta give him his due especially for building a playoff pitching staff at the deadline. They’ve fallen off a bit but more like come back down to Earth. Whoever mentioned building a team for a new stadium I gotta disagree there. New ballparks draw win or lose. It’s new and exciting people wanna come just to check out the venue. It’s when the stadium is 20 years old and hasn’t been remodeled that teams need to build for the stadium to keep butts in the seats
They’re actually only 5 games out of a playoff spot. Peep the AL West Standings Mr. McDonald.
Suggest you check them yourself. Look at the standings on MLB.Com and it shows the Rangers 7.5 Games off a Wild Card
I believe he’s talking about the division, not the wild card. Typical Astros fan
Well the article he’s being critical of mentions both division and wild card.
It didn’t originally. It was edited to include that info later.
If a team in actually 5 games out of first place in their own division they cannot be 7.5 out of playoff contention. Maybe Mr McDonald can learn how divisions and math works in baseball. His editor should also maybe check on his work.
Look at the standings on MLB.Com and it shows the Rangers 7.5 Games off a Wild Card
A team absolutely can be 5 games out of first place in division and 7.5 back of wild card. The wild cards for the top teams in each league who did win one of the 3 divisions. In a weak division the division winner can and has had less wins then the wild card teams.
Stop!
They should be buying everyone to buy another championship.
Go Rangers!
I hope they are in a position to buy. Less competition for the Tigers when they shop Flaherty 😉
Sell a rental pitcher or two and buy someone cost controlled for the future.
Came here to say that they were only 5 games out of the West lead, but 2 others beat me to it.
While Houston is on a tear, the West leading Mariners have been treading water the last month and are 5-7 in July. That division is anyone’s to win. Go get ’em CY.
Could be worried about fans not attending some either. Texas, according to just looked it up ast espn rankings is averaging over 32k per home game and good enough for 12th in the league avg wise.
Anyone is curious.. 4 teams averaging 40k plus. in order they are LAD, NYY, Philly and shocker to me? S/Diego.
For the 2nd straight year the Padres lead baseball in attendance as a percentage of capacity.
Oops. They are 2nd in % this season.
It’s not a surprise to anyone who’s paid attention to Padres baseball the past few years. Look how crazy the 2022 NLDS was for the Pads. We are a rabid and hungry fanbase for a very average-to-bad baseball team with little historical significance. Yet we still show out for them more than fanbases do for teams that literally just won championships. We deserve a winner frankly
johnsilver;
If you don’t se this one I’ll repost it…..
LOVE your comments. Unique. Insightful. Have enjoyed them for years now, but never commented on them.
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As for San Diego attendance..
It took me lots of years to get that one down. The Padres are the only professional teams in play in what is a mid-sized market population-wise, but an upscale market nevertheless.
A.J. Preller has done a great job signing young players with potential. His organization long proved they have no clue as to how to bring said players along. But that doesn’t matter – the national baseball media thinks he’s a maven, and many of his draft picks are quite talented. So he’s been bundling them up to trade for overpaid name players, as well as overpay free agent name players. In short – Mr. Preller is selling a sports-starved, well heeled market, a baseball team (clad in very possibly the worst-looking uni’s in MLB) full of STARS. OK, they haven’t won a WS, gotten to a WS, or even gone far enough in the playoffs over the years to justify the attention they get from the national baseball media. But that franchise is making big money, and A.J. Preller deserves the credit for it.
Would the Rangers have an interest in Paul Goldschmidt? Goldy has a NTC, but maybe he would prefer to play with a more veteran team. The Rangers might also have a role for him next season if he wants to continue playing, while the Cardinals do not.
Seems like there could be a trade that could work for everyone.
Don’t really see a fit with these teams. Lowe has been solid since coming back from injury and has some years of control left and DH is being held up with Langford who’s been heating up as of late.
Not to mention Josh Smith who’s been our best hitter. Carter and Jung also coming back from injury. I think their focus is going to be the bullpen.
It really depends on how the IL plays out.
Am I the only one getting those terrible ads in the mobile app?
I no longer use the mobile app. Its unusable.