The Padres acquired right-hander Jason Adam from the Rays in exchange for three prospects, per announcements from both clubs. The Padres are sending righty Dylan Lesko, outfielder Homer Bush Jr. and catcher J.D. Gonzalez to Tampa. The Friars designated right-hander Glenn Otto for assignment to open a roster spot while the Rays reinstated Jeffrey Springs from the 60-day injured list to take Adam’s spot.
Like so many other players before him, Adam bounced around the league before finally becoming his best self in Tampa. He was drafted by the Royals back in 2010 and subsequently spent time in several organizations, including the Padres, as well as the Twins, Blue Jays and Cubs. He was non-tendered by the Cubs after 2021, at that point sitting on a 4.71 earned run average through 78 1/3 major league innings. He had struck out 27.9% of batters faced but also given out walks at a high rate of 11.4%.
The Rays signed him going into 2022 and he has taken his game to another level since then. He made 170 appearances as a Ray with a 2.30 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has 24 saves and 51 holds in that time. That includes 47 appearances this year with a 2.49 ERA. His 27.8% strikeout rate in 2024 is a few ticks below recent years but his 47.3% ground ball rate is a personal best.
All contending clubs are looking to bolster their bullpens at this time of year and that’s especially true of the Padres. Their relief corps has a combined ERA of 4.19, which places them in the bottom third of the league. They’ve received good results from Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, Yuki Matsui and others but guys like Wandy Peralta and Enyel De Los Santos have struggled, with Peralta currently on the injured list.
Adding Adam and his skills to that relief group is understandably appealing, as is his modest salary. Though he turns 33 years old next month, his long journey to being established at the major league level has led to him having a delayed path to notable earnings. He qualified for arbitration for the first time going into 2023 as a Super Two player and made $1.775MM last year, getting a modest bump to $2.7MM here in 2024. He is eligible for two more arbitration seasons before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.
The Padres had to make significant salary cuts in the offseason, which led to Juan Soto getting trading to the Yankees. They have still attempted to field a competitive team here in 2024 and have succeeded. They are currently on a seven-game winning streak that has bumped them to 57-50 and possession of a National League Wild Card spot. But they seemingly want to avoid the competitive balance tax this year and are currently on pace to do so.
RosterResource calculates their CBT number at $225MM, roughly $12MM away from the $237MM base threshold. That appears to give them a decent amount of wiggle room but that’s an unofficial estimate. Adam has less than a $1MM left to be paid out this year, so he will only marginally increase San Diego’s CBT number, perhaps leaving the front office room for further moves.
The Rays aren’t buried in the standings but have decided to do some selling this year anyway, seemingly due to a combination of strong depth as well as a seller’s market. Their record is currently 53-52, just four games out of a playoff spot, yet they have already traded multiple established big leaguers for younger talent. They have sent Zach Eflin to the Orioles, Aaron Civale to the Brewers, Randy Arozarena to the Mariners and now Adam to the Padres.
They still have a chance to compete down the stretch but have not been shy about making these kinds of moves, seemingly content to add some young talent and save some money while trying to backfill the lost talent from within their own system. With Springs, Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen nearing returns from elbow surgeries, they had readymade rotation replacements. Baz came up to take Civale’s spot and Springs is about to do the same for Eflin. Arozerena’s playing time can be given to guys like Richie Palacios or Jonny DeLuca, while the club always has intriguing bullpen arms on hand and can likely put together a solid relief corps even without Adam.
Lesko, 20, is viewed as the most intriguing part of their return in this deal. The Padres selected him 15th overall in 2022 and he has received plenty of love from prospect evaluators since then. His time in the minors has seen him miss plenty of bats but also the strike zone. He has thrown 69 2/3 innings over 16 starts at the High-A level this year with a 6.46 ERA. He has struck out 25% of batters faced but walked 16.5% of them.
Despite the control issues, he is still considered one of the better prospects in the league. FanGraphs currently lists him #88 overall and MLB Pipeline #76. Baseball America had him #38 overall coming into the year but he’s no longer on the top 100 and was recently bumped to #5 in the Padres’ system. Perhaps the Padres are moving on from a prospect that they have soured on or they have simply accepted this as the price of getting a quality reliever who is affordable and controllable. Either way, Tampa has a strong reputation of getting the best out of players and could perhaps get Lesko back on track in the years to come.
Bush is naturally the son of former big leaguer Homer Bush. The younger Bush was a fourth-round pick of the Padres last year. He is a speed-and-defense specialist with a contact-based approach at the plate. In 130 minor league games, he has seven home runs, a 9.5% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate, leading to a line of .290/.383/.379. He also has 65 steals in 76 tries. BA currently ranks him 12th in the Padres’ system.
Gonzalez was a third-round pick last year and BA currently ranks him #8 in the system. He is only hitting .205/.322/.230 in Single-A this year but is projected to potentially be a two-way player from behind the plate someday.
Otto was claimed off waivers in September. He began the year on the injured list with a right teres major strain. He began a rehab assignment in early June and was optioned later that month. He has tossed 15 1/3 innings in the minors this year with a 7.63 ERA. The Friars will have a few days to consider trades or put him on waivers.
The Padres have made a notable upgrade to their bullpen for the stretch run but surely aren’t done. Bob Nightengale of USA reports on X that they are now going to turn their attentions to the rotation. The Rays have already made a number of future-focused moves but could perhaps consider more, with players like Pete Fairbanks, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz candidates to go in the coming days.
Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that Adam was heading to the Padres on X. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN reported Lesko’s inclusion on X. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported on X that Bush and a third prospect were also going to Tampa. Joel Sherman of The New York Post first relayed Gonzalez on X.
Good addition. Solid under the radar reliever.
Just not under the radar pricetag lol rays got a good return
Well, that is the purpose of a trade, after all, to leave both sides happy.
Just having the chance at getting Lesko back on track is what makes the rays win this trade
It’s also nice the padres traded him while he still had value
Don’t see the point of giving up that much for a 32 year old middle reliever.
Huge overpay for a reliever. Erick Fedde should bring back double that return.
The Padres didnt give up anyone special
Too early to make that prediction
Dylan Lesko has the highest BB/9 ive ever seen in a starter. He’s only 20 and has the draft pedigree but i dont believe he will make it as a starter. He’s a future reliever.
Of all the trades AJ has done with the Rays the best player Tampa has got back was Francisco Mejia.
Pepper has recovered back Jake Cronenworth and Blake Snell.
Who has taken who to the cleaners?
Just a thought-
If Tampa is notoriously, annually and arguably renowned for being the “best FO” in baseball… and Preller has picked their pocket with relative frequency… who’s really the “best FO” around?
Go Pads!
@Gwynning. Maybe the Nats are flying under the radar in best FO contest? For example, they fleeced both TB and SD at the same time in the Trae deal.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
What PTBNL trade are you referring to?!?!?!??!?! Lol
I gotta know, Brew… if you knew the Nats/Soto deal required one of Abrams or Merrill to finalize… who would you have sent/keep? Just a gut call, I know, just curious on your 2 cents!
Dang. Gwynning with some strong comments.
Here’s the deal.
Massive overpay. Tampa won’t be making any more trades tonight because they are still in shock SD said yes.
Prospects are low level and AJ signs these kids every single year. Great talent but they have flaws. Long ways to go. And gotta teach Lesko control. SD couldn’t so far and must have thought they couldn’t or they would have parted with someone else.
Tampa won on paper but SD has just as good of chance as developing next year’s class and these kids.
I would have done what Peter told me to do?
Trae Turner!
@ Gwynning. I had to sleep on it before answering the Merrill v Abrams question. Man it’s such a great question. Abrams is so good, and it was clear he would be good so at the time of the trade I probably would have kept him over Merrill. But knowing what I know now, I want Merrill. That’s not just a baseball choice though. The kid has passion that can motivate teammates, he’s willing to play anywhere, he’s slump proof with that swing. I also think Abrams is thriving on in a less stressful situation. They probably kept the right guy and have to credit FO for that!
Lesko – He’s only 20, I’ll give you that, but in his 2 years of pro ball have been a disaster. And he’s already had a Tommy John. Nolonger in the top 100. Control and pitching isn’t something developed overnight. He was the one prospect I was hoping they traded. If he had one more year like the previous 2 he’s had ZERO value.
Homer is a 22 year old in A ball who is finally starting to bat above .240 and has no power lol
Gonzalez is an 18 year catching prospect.
Bush no power? HR 7/23. Another HR 7/27. He’s 6’ 2” and now hitting for power. Add that to elite speed and CF defense and yikes.
Projecting.
In an alternate projection, power never materializes and batting average never improves. Prove that this is not a possible outcome.
zzzZZZzzz
I regretted losing Cole at the time too, Junior… but quite simply put- what has he done for Tampa?
Seems like a lot for a BP piece even with the control.
no kidding
It’s the 2024 TDL market price. I doubt that Preller missed on a deal that another team took, or will take. Certainly seems like an overpay, but consider the (potential) impact Adam will make to the Padres bullpen, and Preller just made every reliever more effective.
With the prices being asked (re: Crochet), I was wondering how Preller would get ANY deal done without crippling the farm for the next 3-4 years. I don’t have a problem with the logic, i.e. it was the perfect, most affordable package Preller could send. I don’t see how he can pick up a starter now at this point, but he’s been a wizard this year. Definitely GM of the year. Consider where the Pads were at, back at the winter meetings. Soto was gonna be gone-like-Elvis, along with most of the bullpen, and 2/3’s of the starters. I was CERTAIN that in 2024, the Padres would fall off a cliff, due to the rotation alone. Yet, look where they are now.
Rumors are that he is in talks with the Giants for Snell. I don’t think your guy is done trading.
How would that be possible? Are the Giants going to eat 90% of Snell’s contract. Did Preller sacrifice in the offseason to get below the luxury tax, just to blow it all away now?
Snell doesn’t make sense for the Padres in 2024.
Snell would only cost the Padres $5 million towards the CBT.
The way his deal was structured was a $17 million signing bonus and $15 million in salary. That signing bonus goes on the Giants CBT, not the team that trades for him. Options are not guaranteed so not added to the CBT until the team or player exercises them which would be after the 2024 season.
Snell might be the starter that makes the most sense for the way your GM operates.
Player options are considered guaranteed money and count towards the tax. Snell signed a 2/62 deal with an opt out
@BaseballisLife “Our GM” is YOUR GM too, Pads Fans.
Oh yeah- while true the rest of his 30m would count until next year and only if he opts in.
The tax hit this year is 5m.
I love AJ. Not the best gm but my favorite gm. Makes this site fun.
It’s not his job to “make this site fun.”
LFGSD619- no it’s not
But it is his job to create excitement which fills the stadium.
It is his job to field a competitive team
It is his job to draft and sign prospects
After that you just hope it’s your year to win it all. So far no luck there.
It’s his job to field a competitive team and draft and sign prospects yes. Idk about “creating excitement.” Just win ballgames. That’s what I call “exciting.”
Leskos value is falling off a cliff sadly. We know that fans value and league value are certainly vastly different things.
I remember how highly regarded Luis Patino and Cole Wilcox were in the padres farm system at the time of “overpaying” for Blake Snell coming off like a 4.3 era or something.
Time will tell but no guarantee Lesko figures it out.
I usually over-react (negatively) to trades for set up type RPs when the coast is a haul of prospects, but that’s just me. I played baseball, I have no experience as a GM.
It might pan out for Pads, they certainly had to fill this exact need to bring length and flexibility to the 6-8 innings. But I was hoping that these particular 3 valuable prospects would have……had more value and brought something greater in return.
Yep, it’s that “every prospect is a suspect” thingy. Over the past year, some fans were gripping that Cronenworth $80M extension was a huge mistake, an albatross around the Padres (future) GM’s neck for a decade, etc.. Cronenworth has come back after a down year, in which a whole lot of things went sideways that Crone had nothing to do with.
With prospects, one can’t even call them a “win” (like Merrill) after their first or second seasons. Guys flame out, guys start slow and finish strong in their 30’s, it’s just a freakin’ crap shoot.
I think Lesko will finally figure it out. Unlike, for example, Morejon who was looked at as a TOR potential starter back about 2020, and was constantly injured or coming back from injury, just inconsistent, (or maybe Paddock), Lesko is only 20 years old, and the post TJ surgery history for many pitchers is that it takes more of the two years to totally recover both health and form. I don’t think the Pads have written him off, it was just a choice over which prospects they were willing to lose at the ’24 TDL.
We have no idea who Paddock is.
Well, some folks are picky about spelling. I’ll help ya out:
Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins.
Projected 2024 WAR: 0.1
In San Diego, he was considered a prospective TOR stud. Hasn’t worked out that way.
That seems like a lot to give up for a reliever.
He’s a solid reliever. The most consistent on the Rays. Sure hope that the prospects pan out.
Yeah I didn’t think the Rays would trade Adam. But not sure how they could say no to that.
Wow, Lesko is a great get for the Rays.
They got their #3 & #8 prospects (Pipeline). Goodness.
To be fair he won’t be number three in their system once they all update. His stock has been falling.
Still, as good as Adam’s been this year….Prospects #3, 8, and 12 seems a little much for a reliever, even if their stock has fallen a bit. Then again, Adam isnt a rental as he wont be a free agent til after 2026.
It’s a lot, don’t get me wrong.
More important is where they fit in with Tampa. Will they be # 3, 8 and 12? Also, do they better satisfy their expected going forward needs after other trades are completed? That’s part of the reasons why it’s too early to judge the cost paid or prospects received. For the Padres, would other options have cost more that would have prevented other moves since they apparently have to stay under the threshold?
Outside the top 4 of De Vries Salas Snelling recently signed picks the padres farm system isn’t as deep as it once was. I mean Jackson wolf who they traded last year and reacquired after the pirates dumped him is #14
Lesko first 2 years in pro ball have been an utter disaster. I think he’s 1-9 with an over 8 ERA (something like that).
He was drafted off “potential” being that he had tommy john at an early age. At this point it hasn’t worked. How he has any value left is very subjective at this point.
Rays will have the best farm in baseball by the end of this trade deadline. Maybe by just sheer quantity of players.
The Rays also have the magic touch with young prospects. No doubt some of these guys will be big leaguers.
No doubt. But it’s not just volume, they’re getting legitimate talent. This will be more clear after updates are made.
Talk about taking advantage of a thin market. It might cost them a shot at the postseason, they’re just 4 games out, but the odds of benefiting greater from these deals are probably much better.
Yep. Every player traded to the Rays has made their top 30 list and that’s not because the Rays’ system was weak. They currently have only 1 40FV prospect (after the Padres’ prospects are added). For comparison, Seattle has 17 and Baltimore has 15 40FV prospects. Rays system is deep!
They are all top 30 on MLB Pipeline but not on Baseball America and Law’s rankings. Lesko dropped out of top 100 on both and Gonzalez was Padres #32 prior to the trade. I don’t think MLB Pipeline has not done their mid-season updates yet.
Etzel from the O’s was a sneaky good pickup despite generally being presented as the third piece in the Eflin deal behind Horvath and Baumeister. He’s been rocketing up lists this year.
Rays always making the shrewd moves.
Can’t believe they gave up on Lesko that fast.
Yeah, I guess they just didn’t see his command coming around. If he had another year like this one he wouldn’t be worth a pack of gum. So they sold low on him or at the right time depending on how he gets his command under control.
His last 3 games tell the story. 14 innings. 17 K. 11 BB. 15 ER.
I mean..he’s been absolutely AWFUL. Watched him pitch 3 times this year, and all 3 were rough. Made me wonder if he had a form of the yips.
Lesko’s last 3 starts have been a disaster, giving up 15 ER in 14 IP while walking 11. He has been regressing rather than progressing and he has refused to make changes to his mechanics. Maybe another team can help him realize his potential.
Solid bullpen piece coming to the Padres.
I have to believe Homer Bush is related to the former Blue Jays 2B of the same name as i can’t imagine there are two different families that would name their child Homer Bush…
I was gonna say wasn’t there a Homer Bush from several years ago.
R- and the older was also drafted by Padres.
He is indeed Homer Bush, Jr., son of the former MLB player.
Seems like a heavy price, but Adam’s really good..
Wow. What is AJ willing to give up for a starter?
Likely far less since he only needs a rental, not a controllable player like Adams.
That is a ton to give up for a very good controlled reliever. The Padres desperately needed to add a quality reliever.
Obviously this helps the padres a lot now but the price was very high.
Preller must be in full go for it mode, not that he isn’t any other time.
Feels like an overpay for someone who i wouldnt say is a dominant RP
He is dominant. Bad couple of outings recently but he was one of the top relievers in the game this year before that
2.49 ERA in 2024. 2.30 ERA last 3 seasons. 9.6 K/9 in 2024. 10.6 K/9 the last 3 seasons. That is pretty dominant.
I’m not looking forward to Lesko becoming an ace with the Rays. Preller’s willingness to overpay will always amaze me
Just like Luis patino? Ooops
Problem with the Luis Patino analogy (from a trade value perspective) is that they landed Blake Snell in that deal. Adams v Snell, you decide.
Patino was like a top 5 prospect at the time and Lesko is off the top 100 according to Keith law.
That’s my point, Patino is a poor analogy
It’s a good analogy because in both cases the rays fans thought they were acquiring an “ace” which was the point of the OP.
And Luis was a top 5 or 10 prospect at the time. Lesko, the headliner, is no longer in the Top 100.
Cole Wilcox says hi
Lesko will never become an Ace. No worries about that. 6.17 ERA this season. Worse than last season. Has regressed both in terms of SO and BB. Has said that he is not willing to change his mechanics.
John Smoltz says hello. Age 20 minor league season:
146 IP, 92 BB, 91 K
We all know what happened after he was traded. Maybe the same happens here?
Way too early to write off Lesko. As long as he stays healthy, he may have way better numbers as early as next season. His stats after TJ don’t really matter, just needs to stay healthy, keep velocity and go from there.
Smoltz was in AAA in his age 20 season and he talked about how he had to revamp his entire game. Lesko is in A ball and is saying he doesn’t want to change his mechanics. Not apples to apples comparison.
Um, 21 starts at AA and only 3 starts at AAA. Maybe a tangerine to apples comparison.
A very heavy price for a reliever. Lesko just hasn’t gotten it together yet. But fantastic arm. Bush? Gonna be a big leaguer because of his speed. Gonzalez is a stud, but he’s 18 and has several catchers (including Salas) ahead of him.
BTW, Adam is locked in for 3 years.
But a reliever? Overpay.
He’s the most consistent reliever on the Rays. No doubt what they’re doing now. Complete sell-off. Wonder who’s next. I don’t like it as a Rays fan. Padres fans say overpay. Someone’s right.
For sure an overpay. Also for sure a win-later move.
When it has to not only be a good reliever, but a cheap good reliever, the price will go up. Add in the years of control, and it goes up even more.
Goodness. How much is Preller’s phone going to explode today with teams who have solid, controllable relievers but they are willing to part with for a haul? Oh, and while have you on the phone, we have a starter or two that can be yours for the high, high price of…
Padres want to make possible postseason shorten starting pitcher length bring in relievers 6-9 innings especially with possible Musgrove being 2-3 innings pitcher
Rays pick another pocket.
Rays haven’t done all that well in trades with the padres.
Why? As a Rays fan explain. Who’s the most promising?
Lesko is the most promising but also has basically no floor.
The rays prolly could of got a bit more from randy and eflin
Agreed. Getting Seattle’s 14th and 15th prospects and Baltimore’s 13th and 18th prospects according to mlb.com compared to Pads #3, 8, and 12.. Mariners and Orioles have much deeper farms than the Padres but it still seems like TB got more in return from a quality reliever (with 2 more years of control) than for Eflin or Arozarena.
But Adams price was more affordable. If the Padres take on an $8MM salary, it limits what they can still do. $1MM leaves plenty of opportunity for future moves.
I don’t think so. Ray’s been laughing to the bank all deadline long.
Wtf that is a very high price for a mid pitcher. AJ what are you doing?
I am not a fan of either team and it seems high but I wouldn’t call a 2.3 ERA 0.88 WHIP (last 3 years) reliever mid. That’s pretty solid
He’s very solid, would slot in above Morejon and below Estrada IMO
Agree with very solid. The way Estrada and Suarez have been, this looks like the 7th 8th and 9th are on virtual lockdown now. Steep price to pay perhaps, but Adams comes with 2.5 years of cheap control.
Don’t get me wrong, Lesko could be Cy Young winner in 2028, but Adam would be World Series Champion in 2024.
Thinking Alexander Doyle for John Smoltz?
Stabilizing the pen. No more need for Kolek or Davis.
Kolek should be the last guy up, but he’s gunna stick. (Rule V selection)
Fake an injury to Kolek so we can hide him on the IL. He’s already spent the required 90 days on the major league roster.
Preller showing off that desperation
A top of the line controllable RP, for someone who’s value is plummeting.
Bush and Gonzalez value not plummeting, been rising quickly.
Hate to see Bush go, but he has absolutely no power. His upside is a 4th OF. Gonzales stock has been dropping like a rock. He was expected to be a great defensive catcher with power and has hit no home runs in 161 AB and has a .230 slg. On top of that he has not looked good behind the plate with 9 throwing errors and 8 PB, worst in the California league. He is only 18, so I am sure people expect him to improve on that, but when defense and power are your calling cards and those are non-existent, your value doesn’t go up.
I guess you haven’t checked in on Bush’s stats recently. Thanks to some excellent hitting coaches, he’s adopted a more upright stance to take advantage of natural born power. Balls are now going over fences. Gonzalez is 18 years old. He’s not Salas, but he’s hitting about as well as Salas as he develops. One would be quite naive to judge Salas by his BA/slug right now, same goes with Gonzalez. Gonzalez has a cannon of an arm like Salas, the Padres are great at seeing talent and moving it into the farm. Gonzalez is a perfect example.
Bush has a .347 SLG. If he changed his stance, and I see no evidence of that in watching video from his last 2 games, it hasn’t made a difference because his SLG actually dropped from last season.
Gonzalez calling cards were great defense and power. That is what all the scouting reports said about him and if you attended Storm games that is what all the scouts were saying they had not seen from him at all. He is only 18 and I said that he could turn it around, but his STOCK, his VALUE, has dropped precipitously this season. Go look at the latest from BA on him. He dropped 14 spots on their mid-season update prior to the trade.
Did you see his HR 7/23? Then again 7/27? A direct result of the stance change. He’s been on a tear.
Two HR in a week on days it was 85+ outside at game time with the wind blowing out does not mean his power has increased.
His .347 SLG that is down from last season is what tells the story.
Even if you just look at July, his SLG is down from last season.
Zzzzzzzzz
Put the Pom poms down
Brew, you seem to be the one acting as a cheerleader for a kid that seems to be short on power if he has a .347 slg.
The other kid is 18 so who knows what he will become. MLB Pipeline has him graded as a 40 FV and BA is lower, so they don’t think he will be even MLB average. Obviously he is a decent prospect because he was in the Padres top 30 to start the season.
Lol backup’s here
Well, I guess one can say at least this is not a rental, and he got a reliever with 2 years of team control. Makes one wonder how much Preller will be willing to give up for a starter like Crochet.
Nothing. Padres were never in the conversation for Crochet. Padres need a 2 month rental for the rotation. Someone that can help them this season. Crochet cannot do that. Next year they have 6 guys that have all proven themselves at the major league level vying for 5 positions .
Crochet pretty much took himself out of the market, screwing his franchise in the process, when his agent (CAA?) told the world that he wouldn’t pitch again in 2024 unless offered a contract extension. That means he has zip, zero, nadda value in a trade deal. That’ll change over the winter, but his maximum value would be realized now, considering the thin deadline inventory.
Wonder if this means that Darvish and Joe are closer to coming back, so he just focused on relief. They’ve been very tight lipped about them.
People are getting caught up on prospect rankings. The bottom line is Lesko is the main piece and in his two years of pro ball he has been compete crap. He is walking guys left and right.
He has a good arm but clearly his value on the market is very low. Otherwise the padres wouldn’t have needed to included others with him in this trade.
People get caught up with prospects, period. Prospect is another word for “ain’t done nothing yet” and people forget that.
All stars were prospects but no doubt that all prospects will not be stars
But in this case virtual prospect rankings go both ways. Sure, Lesko down, but the rankings for Bush and Gonzalez will be going up soon they way they’ve been playing. Bush in particular is a prospect stud in the making. They need RP help, but at this cost? These were perhaps the most attractive prospect pieces they had not named Salas, de Vries and Snelling.
Both sides are supposed to be happy in a trade, right?
happy isn’t the word describing how I feel (as a Padre fan). Puzzled is the word.
Brew- this tells me Preller value Mazur over Lesko and perhaps a couple of others.
This is a big risk for the padres but unless Lesko dramatically fixes his command he won’t amount to a thing.
I also wonder who is next because the padres aren’t done.
If it were just Lesko for Adams, I might see it. But the other two guys had a lot of value too. I just think it was a haul for TB for an older RP. Adams isn’t a guarantee either, he could be our next Luis Garcia meh
@Simm. I guess AJP just really like Adams. What can we say?
Maybe Mazur is next to go. I haven’t been too impressed by him but he was also rushed a bit so maybe just needs more time.
I would think next is rental BOR SP. If it’s a SP with years of control it tells us something about FO awareness of Yu Darvish and maybe Musgrove’s situation.
Adam, not Adams
Lizaraga, Haynes and Bergert and the guys just recently drafted must be deemed all better than Lesko.
Pump the breaks there Nostradamus.
I like Homer Bush Jr but the kids 22 hitting .272 with an ops of .702 in A+.
Stud in the making is definitely a stretch at this point. He’s a 4th OF Jose Azocar type in the making. Possibly a platoon bat.
What’s he done to show he’s a stud in the making?
@ I believe. In the past month he’s driving the ball over the fence, off the wall, etc… He’s growing into his power. Combine that with elite speed and defense and there’s major upside. He’s not a throw in and sure I can’t predict his future, but no one can predict Adams’ future performance either, especially as he enters his mid-30s
Past month. And the past 3 months he hasn’t done those things. He’s 22 man. Not 18. There’s some room for growth but not a lot.
One month of doing something doesn’t mean he’s turned the corner and gonna be an elite hitter especially when it’s warmer months and balls flying everywhere in June and July. And he’s 3 years older than the competition in A+
Like I said I like bush jr but one month of hitting balls harder when it’s easier to do so doesn’t scream he’s unlocked something.
18 vs 22 is somewhat irrelevant when it comes to when a hitter develops into their power. The Pads sort of predicted that with some adjustments he would develop more power (he’s 6′ 2″ with a compact swing) and his coaches have been raving about that transition happening now. But your point is well taken.
Bush is a kid with great speed, but no power. His upside is a 4th OF. His value is not on the rise. It is about the same as it was going into the year.
Gonzalez value is cratering. A defense first catcher with power is what was expected. He has a .230 SLG and zero home runs this year and his defense has been atrocious with 9 throwing errors and 8 PB, worst in the CA league. On top of that the pitchers are not enamored with his game calling. His CERA is nearly a run higher than the rest of the team.
@Pads Fan. Need to update your notes scout, you’re about 2 months behind on Bush Jr. He’s hitting bombs with the new stance he’s adopted. They projected his power would come, now it is in actual games.
As for your dumping on the 18 year old Gonzalez who isn’t yet lighting up statistically. Hate to think how you’ve already judged Salas an a bust as well?
Great speed but only 4th outfielder? Can’t be a glove speed center fielder?
Get Mandfred on the phone now! Is it too late to cancel the trade? The 18 year old A ball catcher isn’t a good game caller!!! Ray’s just fot fleeced!!!!
Had to look it up because not all that familiar with Bush. He does have a .347 SLG this season, which is 27 points below A+ average. Over the last month Bush has a .437 SLG which is lower than last season. I don’t see the improvement you are talking about and how does that little pop make him anything more than a glove first OF? I don’t understand your logic.
This is exactly right. Everyone thought AJ got taken to the cleaners with the Blake Snell trade at the time.
Too bad Lesko couldn’t have brought us another Blake Snell!
Burn brew burn
$2&#*-£[]|]£ n€ OK!?><…§,,,!!!!
Gotta give credit to Preller for going in after the guys he wants. Its amazing that the Padres farm isn’t in total disrepair.
It is in total disrepair.
It’s pretty weak atm outside of two of the best prospects in the game…salad and vries and perhaps snelling.
Depends on where you look I guess. On Fangraphs (yesterday) its 22nd. On Bleacher Report (July 19th) its 25th. BUT on USA Today (June 11th) its 5th. USA Today OBVIOUSLY knows more baseball than Fangraphs and BR lol. You’re right tho, the Pads system is very top heavy, but their farm isn’t quite as bad off as the Astros or Angels (at least prior to this trade).
Lesko+ for a 33 year old RP?
Peak AJP.
you have no clue.
K
Lesko = a kid with a 6.17 ERA that is regressing in all areas of his game and has said he won’t change his mechanics. His last 3 starts he has thrown 14 innings, given up 15 ER, and walked 11. Preller got rid of him just in time. He has already fallen out of the top 100 on BA and will do the same when mid-season updates come out for the rest.
Small sample size for such a young guy. Are you giving up on Salas already as well? He’s hittin .197. Preller didn’t get rid of Lesko just in time, he waited until his value dropped and got minimum value instead. AJ sold low. Lesko’s value will likely rise again, given his talent and a little patience to see it develop.
Brew- about your point on Salas.
He has basically hit .200 with no power for a year now. Some evaluators were starting to say pump the brakes on him. That they may have been too quick to be so high on him. Even some reports of scouts questioning his bat speed.
Which puts a team like the padres in a weird spot. He is still highly ranked which means they could trade him now and get a really good return. If they don’t trade him now and he has another year of not hitting likely his value will start to plummet.
Of course then he went to the futures game and the people who saw him there said they saw the high end talent that his stats aren’t showing. So now some think he can still live up to the early hype.
With that said though he will need to start hitting in the next year or the questions around him will start to take hold. It’s like many prospects the risk in evaluating such young talent.
My guess is the difference between Salas and Lesko is the Padres decided the chances of Lesko turning it around was turning into a long shot. Reports out there that he refuses to make adjustments as well.
He could adjust and become a top of the rotation arm or he could just burn out in the minors. Which falls in line with prospects are prospects until they show they aren’t.
Lastly the padres system is pretty depleted in the 5-20 org guys. So many of them have been traded and others moved into those spots. Plus when it comes to prospects Preller only really seems to value the super talented guys, the rest he moves freely. Though he trades them in such volume one or so will eventually hit.
I think the part that makes it a little more acceptable to some padres fans is he seems to be able to find new highly ranked talent pretty quickly. I have seen tons of post over the years from other fans saying both that Preller overpays and how in the heck so the padres still have anyone left to trade.
I hope they don’t sell low on Salas after one subpar year batting
Got to watch Salas in person a couple of times this year while we were doing our minor league tour. He is by far the best defensive catcher we saw in the minors and he was 17 at the time. He has an absolute cannon for an arm. He started the season 5-6 years younger than the players he is playing against. I don’t think anyone is backing off on their 60-65 FV rating on him.
Preller knows his job is on the line. And will overpay to get a WC game. Desperate move brought on by the bad Peralta and Matsui contracts. What will ownership allow him to give away for a starter? Salas? De Vries?
At this point he is GM of the year. His biggest blunder over the last 5 years was bringing in low energy, Sleepy Bob. Thanks Gina’s!
Melvin was Seidler’s choice. He did so over Preller’s objections, but that is the owners prerogative.
He called Billy and directly asked him about his availability.
And yet that trade is still in the Padres favor. More WAR for Padres than for Washington. With Cease, King, Vasquez (even with his bad game today), and Higashioka, the Padres are likely to end up doing quite well on that trade when all is said and done.
Turns out Soto was a very expensive rental
Cease wasn’t part of the Soto trade but the biggest piece used to acquire him (Thorpe) was so he does play into the equation.
I’d say Thorpe represented around 40-50% of the Cease package.
The haul to acquire Soto was huge and will always hurt, but dealing him has been the right call for sure.
Preller did an amazing job holding out for both King and Thorpe as rumors were that was a no go and by being patient and not giving in, finally Cashman budged and parted with both. Immediately cashing in Thorpe is looking pretty smart too.
2nd Soto trade is looking really bad for the Yanks. Unless he brings them a WS, then it’s a win win deal
If you mean me, then no worries. I didn’t like the 1st Soto trade. The 2nd isn’t looking so bad though, especially considering the CBT goals
Papapadre- excellent post.
If the padres kept Soto or didn’t get back what they did for him their season would have been awful.
The padres have gotten a lot of production from all the guys they acquired except Brito who they did get some usefulness from.
The first Soto trade was insane in what the padres gave up. It was the biggest we are ready to win a World Series trade ever. Of course they didn’t which stings.
Preller did do a good of quickly salvaging what he could from trading for Soto. Now the Yankees are basically in the spot the padres were which is they either have to win the World Series this year or extend/resign Soto. Not quite as bad as the padres because they didn’t give up as much but similar spot from was it worth it.
Lastly on Thorpe. He was pitching really well until he got rocked vs Seattle. He was always touted as a mid to back end of the rotation arm with a low floor and low ceiling. He should be a serviceable decent mlb pitcher which teams need.
All trades have a tree of moves that you have to take into account. That means you have to include Cease as part of the Padres return for Soto.
Thorpe came from the Yankees so that is on the Padres ends of the balance. He didn’t come out of their farm.
Zavala is struggling, hitting .191 in his 2nd try at A+ ball.
Iriarte is doing OK in AA with a 4.05 ERA.
Wilson is pitching well in low leverage situations for the White Sox with a 3.03 ERA and 4.97 FIP. Just a 0.3 WAR because he is a reliever.
Still a few years until a final score can be given on either Soto trade. At this point you can’t point to any team as the clear winner.
WAR breakdown
Padres > Yankees > Nationals
And the Nationals can burn Abrams best years under contract while they battle for last place.
Agreed.
I’m a big time Preller hater but this year is probably his best work ever. They had to trade Soto, lost the 2023 Cy Young winner and Josh Hader to boot. Given all that is pretty wild where they sit
@99 agreed. Everyone had us battling the Rockies for the cellar. After the NLCS in 2022 I felt that Sleepy Bob was the problem with this team. Starting 0-10 or 0-12 in extra inning games screams managing.
Really glad we have Schildty
Why would Preller’s job be on the line? Team is winning. Record tickets being sold and record revenue. Most moves he has made have turned out great for the team.
Matsui is making $3 million and has an ERA under 3.50. Nothing wrong with that signing at all. Preller does that one 100 times over.
Peralta is making just $3 million and had 3 bad outings out of 41 this season.
Padres don’t NEED to get a top starter, they just need a rental for a couple months. Rentals don’t cost a Salas or a DeVries. But if you actually understood what was going on and were doing anything other than just trolling you would know that.
He would be a perfect fit.
He’s the perfect fit for about 15 teams who badly want him now.
We don’t know if AJP’s job is in jeopardy, but losing often has a fall guy
Ringworm- no gm outside of the Yankees 30 years ago are going to have a World Series or bust noose on their head.
The new playoff format just makes it too unpredictable on who will make it to the World Series. He does however need to be able to build a team that’s in the mix.
I think he has bought himself some time with fielding a competitive team this year while cutting about 90m in payroll.
People also get to caught up into the padres long term signings. Preller doesn’t decide those, no gm does. Anytime you are spending massive amounts of money that is owner driven. Peter was never going to let Manny leave, he loved Manny. He tried to sign Turner and judge, missed on both and sat in the meeting talking Xander into signing with the padres.
I love watching stat boys lose their minds on what is obvious to the eyeballs.
arms ain’t cheap this year. That’s for sure
People so overvalue prospects. Dylan Lesko is more likely to be the next Luis Patino than anything else. He has a 6.50 ERA in A ball and people are acting like the Padres traded the next Max Scherzer
Pro Tip: Strawmanning is only effective if people don’t see right through it immediately.
Sure, not all prospects are guaranteed. But they have value, and prospects like Thorpe, who was not as highly ranked as Lesko, brought in a guy like Cease with control. Cease v Adams. is a reasonable measure of this trade’s value.
Lesko isn’t going to be highly rated after the updates. BR has already dropped him out of the top 100. Others will follow/
Yeah, I probably oversimplified in making the comparison. Was trying to make the point that prospects aren’t just suspects, they’re valued currency.
Like it or not the padres are stuck in win now mode for several more years. Given the contracts on the books trading prospects for controllable cheapest big leaguers is exactly what they should be doing.
Lesko has been terrible this season and getting worse as the season has gone on. No way around that. That is why his stock has been plummeting and all the scouting services that have done a mid-season update have moved him out of the top 100.
Thorpe was minor league pitcher of the year in 2023 and was nearly MLB ready. Not comparing apples to apples.
Thorpe was still moving up the rankings at the time of that trade. Lesko just hasn’t ever got on track despite his talent.
It was a lot to give up, but Bush is blocked in CF by Merrill; Salas, not Gonzalez, is the Padre catcher of the future; and Lesko may or may not come around.
I’ll take Adam for three years for those guys.
@msalamy. Just because those guys appear blocked to Pads, doesn’t mean they don’t carry value to other teams. I’m a little shocked that two prospects at skill positions (C and CF) were toss-ins for a Lesko for Adams trade.
Gotta give to get, Brew! We’re in it to win it, so let’s roll. Love the Adam grab here, let’s just make like butter and get on a sweet roll!
Sorry Gwynning, less Bush has never been my credo
Brew- has a strong point here. I may never agree with him more.
Hey, we shaved some fringe follicles from the farm… they’ll grow back nice and purty! =)
The top 20 ranked prospects in the Padres organization, prior to this trade, have all had very poor results this year. That’s too many to be a coincidence. The next trade Preller makes should be for the player development department of Tampa,
And most of all those guys were great last year and raised their values. Same people were working with them then as now.
Perhaps some of them just weren’t very good. The Padres have traded almost every prospect from the 5-20 range over the last year. Tons of them for Cease and Arraez. That’s after trading a million of them for Soto, hader, bell, drury and others.
Preller is desperate. Seems as if DeVries and Salas could move for deals involving Skrubal, Crochet and Robert.
“LOVE this trade for the Rays. Who’d they give up? And who’d they get?“
– Sam Miller, 2014
Fire sale alert: Tampa Bay
This is no fire sale Sacrifice. Rays know what they are doing. Lesko and Gonzalez have huge upside and with their player development system, at least one, if not both, of these kids have excellent chances to be quality players. Baseball America’s updated prospect rankings have Lesko (5) and Gonzales (8) ranked very high in a strong system. Gonzalez’ projections have risen significantly in the past six months. Preller is all in this year. More deaks to come, no doubt.
Like they knew what they were doing trading Jake Cronenworth and Blake Snell for Francisco Mejia and Luis Patino.
Preller has continuously taken them to wood shed.
Preller got a very good cheap controllable reliever who has experience pitching high leverage innings. Anyone watch the playoffs in recent years? You need 3 or more of those types to win a series. He gave up 3 prospects. Nobody in the top 100 and the pitcher lesko is far from a sure thing. Padres fans should be overjoyed preller went out and got this guy. Other than the last few years they have been doormats for 2 decades.
Lesko was top 100. #76. Helps to read the article you are commenting on.
Lesko will be off updated lists. Keith law just said this morning he wouldn’t be on the top 100.
Keith Law has Lesko OUT of the top 100
don’t listen to food bloggers
BA and BP have also dropped Lesko out of the top 100. MLB has not done their mid-season updates and when they do I suspect he will be off their top 100 also.
I read it but post draft and the kind of year he is having = no top 100.
2 years ago when he had his best season, this would make sense. I’m not up on the SD prospects but giving up 3 kids who were drafted in the first 3 rounds seems like an overpay. Not to mention, he’s 33.
Preller is one of the few GMs not to be fleeced by the Rays so I think he deserves a little credit with this trade. Maybe the Rays unlock Lesko’s full potential unlike Luis Patiño…
That is a lot to give up for a reliever.
Rays are fairing much better in trades than the Jays.
Blue Jays pay attention and trade Chad Green.
If the Rays can get Lesko on-track they will be miracle workers. That or San Diego has a pitching development problem. How many arms have not panned out for them the last 10 years?
Sweeeeet! 7th 8th and 9th looking locked down!!
Who likely closes for Tampa if they trade Fairbanks? Since Adams was normally the fill in guy.
Rockstar GM strikes again. This is essentially trading for one of the better relievers in all of baseball for quantity over quality in a trade.
– Lesko (already had tommy john surgery) is a walks machine. Getting anything of value for him at this point is a net positive.
– Homer Bush is a 22 year old in A ball batting .250
– Gonzalez is a lottery ticket scratcher.
@Zombie. I think you’re undervaluing the 3 prospects, Lesko is wild but has ML stuff, he still has a chance to turn things around. Bush at age 22 is progressing quite well this year, showing some slug to go with his truly elite speed and defense at a highly skilled position (CF). As you know catchers carry a ton of value in MLB, especially one with a elite cannon of an arm (a rare lefty) like Gonzalez, who is still quite young and expected to develop decent bat skills.
Like some here, I’m not ready to pronounce a winner or loser in a trade that will take years to evaluate. “Rock star GM” has been having a good year I agree, but this trade isn’t necessary further evidence of his recent success. Let it play out.
Brew – is Lesko not following Gore’s path though – and not starting off with nearly as high of a ceiling?
Stuff and no control. Even Gore having seemed to figure it out a bit didn’t stick as he has lost it again.
I think Valenzuela will have higher value than Gonzo so maybe we see him involved with Pauley for Snell?
@LT. Lesko might turn it around after a big fall (like Gore did, sort of). But who knows. I like Valenzuela too as a bat-first C, not nearly the defensive C that Gonzalez is though. And he’s much older so I’m not sure how that affects his trade value.
And then there is Lamar King (I had forgotten him) so I think Gonzo was sandwiched between those guys as well as all of them behind Salas. Of course, a few more years of Campy, even if he becomes a backup.
Yes a riches of C prospects. But they each still have a lot of trade value, just like all the many SSs of the past!
I just blinked and the Camden Yards game just went from 6-0 to 6-5. Bogey sure doesn’t look like the bust everyone says he is.
Brew – I almost turned it off after 6 in the 3rd!
Fair points. I might be. I also don’t overvalue decent production in low ball. That’s Gonzalez and Bush.
Lesko has shown nothing aside from wild arm in his first two years.
Bush has no slug. That is his only issue. He hits for decent average. Gets on base as a good clip. He plays good defense, He has 80 speed. But his SLG is .347 which is well below Midwest league average.
Lesko is most likely a lost cause. Mostly because he has said that he doesn’t want to change his mechanics. His last 3 games have been a sign of things to come if he doesn’t allow an organization to dismantle his mechanics and start from scratch. 14 IP. 15 ER. 17 SO. 11 BB.
No slug? He hit a HR 7/23. Another HR on 7/27
Rockstar GM strikes again with the overpay trades!
Currently has his organization in the playoffs and within striking distance of the Dogs, all the while losing a ton of WAR over the previous season.
You don’t trade first rounders for relievers. Too volatile. And even the very best ones will generally put up a WAR in the 2’s.
And you don’t value relievers by WAR!
Bush is in A+ ball, hitting .270, and he has 80 speed. His problem is he has no power. He will likely make it to the majors just based on his speed. But it will be as a 4th OF. He is not a huge loss.
Like Lesko, Gonzalez has seen his value plummet this season after his calling cards of power and defense have pretty much entirely disappeared this season. At 18 years old he could very well still turn into a solid catcher, but he is 4-5 years away from the majors.
Gonzalez hasn’t seen his value plummet, his value has climbed in the rankings this year as per nearly every standard out there. 18 year old C with cannon for a arm, reserve your personal judgement for a bit.
I don’t know, that’s a lot to give up for a 32 year old relief pitcher with an unproven track record. I’m scared what it’s going to cost to get a back end of the rotation starting pitcher. Most likely Snelling and one of Salas or Devries at this rate.
2.30 ERA with 10.6 SO/9 over 170 appearances. That sounds like a pretty good track record.
Funny, because when I look up his career stats it says he has a 3.07 career era in 243 career innings. Why do you have to lie Pads Fan and make him seem better than he really is? I’m not saying he has a terrible track record but there’s a reason the guy is 32 and still in arbitration years. Maybe he’s a later bloomer, but still is the fact that I think we overpaid for a guy who isn’t a known commodity. I follow baseball pretty closely and this is the first time I’ve ever heard of this guy.
Bill- padsfan posted his last 170 innings stats. Which is a pretty large sample size for a reliever. You are correct though he was a bit of a late bloomer or it just took some time for someone to help him make that right adjustments.
as a yankee fan this is ominous. the cost of relief help is getting higher by the minute
I have no issue trading Lesko and Bush Jr., but I don’t really value arb-years for a reliever when they’re so inherently volatile. Good pickup, but I woulda thought those two would bring back Snell.
I really don’t want to see Snelling as a SF Giant.
Same. Farm’s getting pretty bare outside of the top 2/3.
Though it would be poetic, Snelling for Snell. I’d prefer they acquire a BOR SP rental (and not part with one of their top 3 prospects).
If the Giants are trading Snell they would be the ones giving up prospects not the other way around. Padres had the chance to pay Snell that money and took a hard pass. His stock hasn’t risen since then.
Disagree. Snell’s coming off a 15-K outing, his value is peaking.
lol k
Why would the Padres give up Snelling for a guy they didn’t want to pay that kind of money to 5 months ago who is now running a 5.10 ERA????
Any team would want Snell right now. Last 5 outings have been lights out dominant, which is typical Snell in 2nd half of season. But I’m not sure what he would cost and how the opt out would work
Still has negative trade value.
@PadsWSC. I sure hope they don’t trade Snelling for Snell and didn’t suggest they do that for a 2-month rental. I don’t think they would, even if all in to save the season for AJ.
Padres were never in on Snell at 2/$62, that train had already left the station. Their primary motivation was resetting the CBT and they’re on track to do so.
Brew, I think since the option isn’t a guarantee then it doesn’t factor into CBT so good news for SD.
I can’t see Snell not opting out. That said, any team acquiring him could be a good extension candidate as Snell might not want to jump back o to the FA water after last year!
What it takes – only 5 good games all year and pricey salary wanting to get dumped by SF.
I think anything is more than they thought they would get 2 weeks ago.
Pauley / Lamar King or Valenzuela and a back end guy for a quantity package?
@straightuphonestguy No one but SF was and that was when he was coming off the CYA. He’s not “untradeable” but the Giants would have to eat money/attach prospects while getting back nothing of value. And then there’s the opt-out issue.
Someone broke it down yesterday in an excellent post that Snell is only due a pro-rated portion of $15M this year since $17M was a signing bonus to be paid out in early 2026. For this year, acquisition cost is trivial. The opt-out definitely complicates things.. maybe it could be like a PTBNL situation where it essentially becomes a lotto ticket if Snell opts-in for 2025? The Giants could also eat cash.. but the Padres don’t really have much use for CBT space this year.
You’re dead wrong Longtimecoming! The player option year is absolutely included in the CBT calculation because the team has no say in whether or not it gets exercised.
Easy Johnnie – “I think” has a level of being unsure that doesn’t quite deserve a “dead wrong” and and an ! .
Brew and I have been enjoying a fan based convo – didn’t remotely suggest I was “right” so can’t be “dead wrong”!
Defending OJ requires a strong sense of conviction
I don’t know of a credible source that the Pads are in on Snell, or that SF is taking on interest, other than from a rumor from a poster in MLBTR.
@Brew’88 Well your hopes will be answered. If the Padres liked Snell that much they’d have signed him last offseason they wouldn’t give up Snelling to do it now. It’s not like he’s done anything to improve his stock from where it was when SF signed him.
If Preller trades for Snell the Padres would still be under the CBT.
Longtime is correct. Web covered that pretty well including links and references in the CBA on the last thread about Snell. The option year is only included once it is exercised and its considered a 1 year contract. It doesn’t play into the AAV for 2024 at all. .
Entire article about the Yankees and Padres being in on Snell on this website.
mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/yankees-padres-interest…
Ladies and gentlemen of this supposed jury, it DOES. NOT. MAKE. SENSE! I am NOT. MAKING. ANY. SENSE! And if I’m not making any sense, then you must acquit!
I thought the same thing until I saw the sections on it in the CBA that Web posted. Go back to the last thread about Snell. Any option counts only after the option is exercised. It would count for the 2025 season and would be just like a 1 year deal. The team trading for Snell would only be on the hook for $5 million in 2024.
lol
If the Rawlings glove don’t fit, you must acquit!
And that’s credible? Giants have won 4 in a row and are getting healthy. They don’t seem likely to bail on a pitcher they signed for this very time of year when he dominates.
Who is Web? Oh, that web
lol to J. Cochran post
Lol he’s referencing stuff he said from his burner account now.
@Pads Fans “Web” IS you.
Shhhh we gotta keep this going
Snell is not exercising the option year because he is going to get more than $30 million guaranteed unless he blows out his elbow and requires TJ before the end of the season.
Brew- yes the giants have won 4 in a row against a bad Rockies team playing on the road. Right after losing 3-4 against the dodgers with that same pitching staff.
I saw this with the padres last year. They swept the rangers right before the deadline and got within 4 games and decided to not sell (didn’t buy much either). Then despite a great finish in sept still missed the playoffs.
A lot of times winning this time of the year gives you false hope. The giants are still below .500 and still have a number of teams ahead of them in the standings. I haven’t looked today but yesterday they had a 17% chance of making the playoffs.
For me not trading snell would be a mistake unless nobody is offering much. They can’t QO him and he will likely opt out next year. Chapman I think will also opt out if he finishes strong. So not cashing in these guys when you have the opportunity is a big risk. Now the giants have the money to resign them if they want to. So it’s not the same as the rays situation.
With that said how much better would the padres system be right now if they traded…snell, hader, wacha, Martinez, lugo and even Soto last year.
Also I always feel like the worse spot and thing you can do is nothing. You’re on the fringe which means you need help (offense has issues). You don’t really buy and the flaws you had comeback to haunt you. Meanwhile all the teams you need to pass make moves because they are in a better spot, making their team even better.
Are they going to pass the padres or dbacks? Dbacks are going to get pitchers back to and are adding to the team. Padres could get Tatis, Musgrove and Darvish back and are adding to there team via trades.
Is Cobb ever going to pitch more than 2 outings this year. Is Ray actually going to be good down the stretch coming back from TJ, yes he had a good 5 innings. Is snell going to continue to be lights out the second half or will he get hurt again and lose his control. Is Webb going to be dominant or what he has been lately which is good but not great. Are all the rookies pitchers going to hold up the second half. Are the bats like fitz going to continue to hit. Is Soler who has been good for a 3 games going to be good or is this his hot week.
It’s possible that everything aligns and they get in the playoffs…Fangraphs yesterday said that chance was at 17%.
@Simm. I personally agree that it’s a long shot for the Giants, even with an improved rotation. Im not sure the Pirates can hang, but it won’t be easy for SF to leapfrog three of the Braves, Cards, Mets, Pads and Dbacks. Their GM is in a tough spot though. They really went for it this year and the fanbase, some proportion anyway, is getting a little fired up again (I have a lot of family and friends connections up there). .
just saying it’s not a given they deal Snell, if only for the message it sends. We’ll know today/tomorrow what direction they plan to go.
I totally agree. They are very much in a spot like the padres last year, little lesser so but it’s close and the padres went for it. My point is when you do and it doesn’t work out the best really turns up.
Brew and Simm – since we’ve been chatting amongst ourselves a lot let me go back and say, KC gave up their 3 and the guy they picked 39th in the draft for a BP arm prior to the Adam trade.
Maybe the prices are just high for a good BP arm and SD didn’t “overpay” as much as it looks – but specially, if Lesko is regressing on the charts.
Prices are definitely high. I’d prefer Adam over Harvey who the royals got.
Will be interesting to see what Tanner Scott and some of these starters go for.
He isn’t going to do it now but yeah I think he opts out. He is getting older and still wants to sign a longer term deal. Even if that’s at a lower aav that’s better than risking injury on a 1 year deal.
So yeah I do.
He’s pitching for his mortgage next two months
Snell is a true rental. Just 2 months. So he will not cost much, especially considering he is coming off an injury-filled season with poor performance.
Holy overpay Batman!
Right? The Rays way overpaid for these prospects!
Good pickup for them
Oh. And for all those who said “Putting Tirso on the 40-man roster doesn’t matter because they already have an open 40-man roster spot from Darvish.” This is why it DOES matter. 40-man roster spots are a finite resource, it stood to reason that the Padres were going to need to clear a spot after they inevitably bought at the deadline and that’s exactly what happened. THIS is why you don’t just give away 40-man roster spots like party favors at your kid’s birthday party.
Never forger Jason Adam refused to wear the pride logo on his jersey with the rest of the team.
I respect his choice, as an American. I don’t have to agree with him, but I still have respect.
He has faith. ‘Cause you gotta have faith, faith, faith. Oh wait, he wouldn’t like that song because of who sang it.
BTV says Rays by 8.1. That Dylan Lesko on his own should have gotten it done.
They have him over valued. His stock is tanking.
I wouldn’t believe the value they have him assigned is accurate.
Holy overpay Batman!
Right? The Rays way overpaid for these prospects!
On my wishlist for the birds
I guess my suggestion that Lesko should headline a package for Flaherty was not so crazy. That is a great return for TB.
Pick me AJ please please pick me to be your trade partner.
A++++ to the moon for Tampa. Upside Upside and more upside. Production. Tampa might not be contending for the mlb championship but they are going hard for the best farm system trophy. Love these prospects.
D for SD. Can’t go F for improving their team and they haven’t made much progress with Lesko control. AJ can replace the other kids my snapping his fingers. Painful trade to make though.
Only person who might not be impressed with this return is Jimmy Johnson.
D is about right. At least they filled a need. It could have been worse, like giving up that package for another middle IFer.
Dream- I have it a C for all the reason you mentioned. I think the difference in grades is I rate the value of the current padres needs in the pen higher. They desperately needed a guy who could pitch in the back their pen if they are going to have a real chance this year. Plus he has two more years of control and he isn’t getting paid much at all which fits the budget.
With that said I’d give the rays and A. Trading a reliever that they seem to be able to replace easy enough for the upside even if those guys don’t pan out is a good risk.
As a padres fan though I’m still good with this trade because winning now trumps hope of a prospect later. The Padres have in my eyes a 2-3 year window before they start to be in possible hell with these contracts and likely drop off of production from the big money guys (except tatis who is young still).
Of course some padres fans will say they need to keep the cheap talent because they will need them to rise when the money guys fall off to keep them competitive. Which is true as well. So I don’t disagree with either view point.
I have a feeling they might still add a RP ….perhaps depending upon Peralta’s status as his injury can take time.
Yeah Tanner Scott would be perfect but he may cost too much in prospects.
I think they will get a starter as well.
A lefty now would be the fit, Scott for sure. We also know AJ like Mason Miller (RP)
Agree. A D is still a passing grade. Just they paid a steep price. It’s hard to hit on 1st round draft picks. None of these guys could amount to much. It’s just a numbers game. And Lesko had zero value to the Padres. They failed to teach him control. If they thought they could they should have kept him. So I go with the assumption they didn’t believe they could.
I follow the logic of your grading, which is very low level minor league players with potential (but minimal to no results so far) are worth more than a very good relief pitcher who is controllable 2 years beyond the current season. I follow the logic. I can’t agree with it, however.
I love prospects. I like to extrapolate their numbers and imagine what they will do in the big leagues. But come on guys! These are 3 guys in A ball this year who are not exactly tearing it up. Lesko could turn it around and Bush could be a decent on base guy with speed and outstanding defense and Gonzalez could be something. But check out their A BALL stats this year! Let’s not go overboard on prospects who are so low in the farm system and are not achieving success.