This isn’t the Blue Jays’ year. Though they played at roughly a 90-win pace over the 2020-23 seasons, things have fallen apart here in 2024. They are 44-52, putting them 9.5 games out of a playoff spot and with several teams blocking their path. Unless they crack off an 11-game winning streak between now and the deadline, they’ll be looking to do some selling in the coming weeks.
Crazier things have happened but the odds are against them. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just a 2% chance of a miracle postseason berth while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are only slightly more optimistic at 3.9%.
Recent reporting has suggested the Jays are willing to deal rental players but may stop there. Some have floated players like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as potential trade candidates, with each controllable through the 2025 season, but general manager Ross Atkins seemed to shoot down that possibility. Last month, he said that trading those guys “just doesn’t make any sense for us.”
In general, it seems the club is hoping to contend again in 2025. That leaves them with six rental players they could trade between now and the July 30 deadline, as each of Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi García and Trevor Richards are slated for the open market at season’s end. Naturally, each player will have different trade value based on his skill level but also his contract.
One question that the front office will need to answer is whether they will prioritize shedding salaries and getting under the competitive balance tax or focus more on prospect returns, eating some money in order to tip the scales that way. The Mets demonstrated the latter path last year, as they swallowed significant portions of the money owed to both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander in order to bring back larger prospect hauls.
Both Roster Resource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts are pretty close in estimating Toronto’s current CBT number. RR has them just over $247MM with Cot’s a tad higher at $250MM. Those are just estimates but they’re likely pretty close, so the Jays would have to subtract $10-15MM in order to limbo under the lowest tax threshold of $237MM.
They won’t be able to shed any player’s full salary from their CBT number as the season is already more than half over, but they could shed portions. For example, if a player has a CBT hit of $20MM and is traded at the midway point of the season, $10MM of that would stay on the trading club’s books and the other half would transfer to the acquiring club. That’s assuming no cash considerations were involved in the deal.
It’s also worth pointing out that a player’s CBT hit is based on the average annual value of his contract, not the salary. The baseball season is 187 days long and there are 73 left to go, roughly 39%. By the deadline, that will be down to 61 days or 32.6%. Let’s take a rough outline of where those six rental players stand:
- Turner: $13MM CBT hit for the year, $5.07MM remaining today, $4.24MM at deadline
- Kikuchi: $12MM, $4.68MM, $3.91MM
- Kiermaier: $10.5MM, $4.1MM, $3.42MM
- Garcia: $6MM, $2.34MM, $1.96MM
- Jansen, $5.2MM, $2.03MM, $1.7MM
- Richards: $2.15MM, $839K, $700K
As of today, those six players combine for a CBT hit of roughly $19.06MM, with that number set to drop to $15.93MM by the deadline. Though it would be tight, it’s certainly possible they could duck under the tax this year.
Doing so would come with certain benefits, though the tax savings would be minimal. The Jays paid the tax for the first time last year and are currently on pace to be a second-time payor. That only comes with a 30% tax rate, meaning they’re currently slated to pay in the range of $3-4MM in taxes.
That’s a drop in the bucket for a major league team but there would be other arguments for ducking under. If the Jays did pay the tax this year and again in 2025, they would be a third-time payor next year, which would bump their tax rate to 50%. Whereas ducking under the line this year would reset their status and allow them to go into 2025 as a “first-time” payor and have a base rate of just 20%. That feels significant but still leads to fairly modest tax savings. For example, going $30MM over next year’s base threshold would lead to either a $6MM or $15MM tax bill, depending on whether they are paying a 20% or 50% rate.
Perhaps more importantly, if they signed a player in the offseason that had rejected a qualifying offer, they would face a lesser penalty by avoiding the tax. A tax-paying club surrenders $1MM in international bonus pool space as well as its second- and fifth-highest picks in the next draft when signing a QO player. Avoiding the tax changes that to just $500K in bonus money and just the second-highest pick.
They would also increase what they receive if a player rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. Tax payors receive a pick after the fourth round if a QO player signs elsewhere, whereas it’s the start of the third if they avoid the tax. The Jays have a couple of potential QO candidates in Jansen and Kikuchi but the QO consideration would be moot if they get traded.
But as mentioned, the Jays could just forget about the tax and focus on getting the best prospects they can. The Cubs are reportedly interested in Jansen but they would probably rather give up a better return while having the Jays keep their money on their books. The Cubs seemingly want to avoid the tax themselves and Roster Resource currently has them just under $234MM. They have a well-regarded farm system and might lean towards subtracting from that, as opposed to taking on money at the deadline. It may be similar with other teams, such as the Padres. Roster Resource has them at $225MM and they seem to want to stay under the tax as well. They need pitching and may be interested in someone like Kikuchi, but they may not want to take on his money/CBT hit.
Other teams will be in the opposite position. A team such as the Tigers, as an example, might be looking for more offense. If they were to inquire about Turner, they would probably prefer to take on the money and not give up prospect talent. They are nowhere near the tax line and their real payroll is well below their past spending levels. Since they are seven games out of the playoffs, they might be willing to take on a bit of cash in order to bolster their club for a long-shot postseason push, as opposed to surrendering young players and hurting themselves in future seasons.
What the Jays are able to do will ultimately depend on what kind of offers are coming their way, as they don’t operate in a vacuum. They already know that no club is willing to take on all of Kiermaier’s contract, as they made him freely available on waivers recently and didn’t get any takers. Perhaps someone would be interested in him as a speed-and-defense fourth outfielder if the Jays ate some of his deal, but getting all of the remainder of his contract off the books doesn’t appear to be an option.
Depending on the circumstances of their trading partners, they may have to strike a balance, with some deals focused on cost savings and others on maximizing the return in terms of talent. If that leaves them still a hair over the tax line, they could consider moving non-rental players, with Chad Green arguably the best option there. He is under contract through 2025 but has a $10.5MM CBT hit, same as Kiermaier, giving the Jays a chance to scrub another few million from their CBT number. Doing so would hurt their 2025 bullpen but they might feel they could easily replace Green’s production via an offseason signing. With bullpen help generally in demand at the deadline, Green should garner interest.
Guys like George Springer, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman all have CBT hits of $21MM or more. The Jays could try to find takers for those but Springer is 34 years old and having a rough season, which would tamp down interest. Dealing either Bassitt or Gausman would hurt next year’s rotation, which is perhaps the club’s best argument for trying to compete again in 2025, as they could go into the offseason with a front four of Gausman, Bassitt, José Berríos and Yariel Rodríguez on paper.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa could be another option as he is under contract through 2025 and has a $7.5MM CBT hit. He is having the best season of his career but has been on the injured list since the start of this month with a left knee sprain. He can still be traded while on the IL but his health status will impact his trade value.
Ultimately, there are many moving parts here, part of the reason why the Jays will be an interesting club to watch in the weeks to come. Most of the sellers at this year’s deadline will be focused on the long term, as clubs like the White Sox and Marlins are in really rough shape in the present. That will make their deadline priorities rather straightforward, as they will be simply looking to acquire as much future talent as possible.
But the Blue Jays will likely be balancing several different concerns. They will be looking to give up some talent, but not in a way that significantly harms their chances of competing again next year. They could focus on acquiring as much talent as they can right now or they could limbo under the tax line, giving them more freedom to acquire talent in the offseason. One way or another, Atkins and his crew will be looking to turn a lost season into something that can help them down the line, though there are many different ways they could try to accomplish that.
jimmertee
The BlueJays need to sell everyone except Vladdy Jr, Martinez, Horwitz and Berrios. And Shapiro and Atkins can’t be the ones who do the selling. New BlueJays baseball leadership please!
bestone
Please DFA Atkins….
NYCityRiddler
They’re not competing in 25 with or w/o fatso & bo boy, the whole organization is a train wreck. Next! Ahahaha!
ClevelandSteelEngines
Anyone is fair game if you can change the mentality of the club. If Bichette is the sour grape, send him on his way.
The Jays truly need to revamp their farm system and the dollar probably starts with their scouts. They’ve missed too many times of late to stay competitive.
Murphy NFLD
I’m a jays fan and as much as I’d like BO to stay anybody with a brain can see the best bet is to sell it all. Due to 2 seasons of massive stadium upgrades and aswell as a upgraded ST site that won’t happen. Just like when ownership said Keep Donaldson and company and go for it next season, which was a huge mistake that will happen again. The difference in trading Bo, Vlad, Bassit and maybe Gausman NOW along with rental pieces is not to be understated. Doing so would likely take a rebuild from 6-10 years to 2-4 before they are competitive again. I get that they want a return on there investment but having 6-8 years of bottom attendance vs 3-4 should be enough for them to see what the right move is
NoSaint
@Murphy NFLD
Predicting a rebuild is nothing short of a guess. The O’s came out of one quickly but the Royals took 10 years.
bigdaddyt
Rather rebuild for a few year than be a .500 team every year kinda reminiscent of the mid 2000s jays
Nosferatu Zodd
Adley changed the O’s narrative. His stats/war might have not been what Ohtanis was, but he was the most VALUABLE player last year.
MoneyBallJustWorks
the reality is if ownership isn’t sure Atkins or Shapiro remains, they aren’t signing off on major trades like that. Moving rentals is fine, but a Bo, Gausman, Bassit, Vlad would get a haul and no way Atkins or Shapiro should be in charge of that if they have a foot out the door
solaris602
You’re right on the money. Atkins and Shapiro are first and foremost trying to maneuver this to save their own jobs and not necessarily what is best for the organization in the long run. If they blow it up to any degree it will be an admission of failure on their part. It’s too late at this point to bring in a new FO to do what needs to be done by the deadline. Let them just sell off the rentals, fire them both in the next couple months, and bring in new leadership to make the necessary deeper cuts.
User 3222006999
At this point the way the Cubs season has progressed, Even though they could easily reset the Tax next year it doesn’t make much sense to go over it this year. I don’t see any point in blasting the by the Tax this year. I still say they should try and cut salary and players that aren’t part of the plan for 2025. Get some youngsters some playing time in the Majors and get everyone healthy. They now have enough young pitching that seems ready to contribute that they really don’t need to go hog wild this year or in FA next next year. Let the season play out and get everyone healthy and see what’s what.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
I think the Cubs should go for it. They have been playing better of late. Maybe not go hog-wild with player acquisition but just some solid guys to beef up around the margins. I think they owe it to the fans to not completely raise the white flag. Grab a Jansen, grab a Taylor Ward, and a backend reliever and see what happens???
User 3222006999
Think the Cubs should go for it? OK. Love the optimism, Not the reality. Are they as bad as they’ve played the last 2 months? No. Are they as good as they’ve been the last week and a half? Probably not. Let’s not pretend this is the D-Backs from last year. Even if Milwaukee fades and they get hot I doubt this team beats the Dodgers or Phillies or even Milwaukee or Atlanta if they’re a WC team. The bullpen is either young or injured, The bench is putrid, No, Worse than putrid, The offense has way too much swing and miss and the Catching is horrible. Other than that things are looking up don’t ya think I _S-of-a-b?
WiffleBall
They need to reboot. Dump the whole cast, get a new director and screenwriter, and hope that in 10 years maybe the third sequel will compete for fourth place at the box office.
Blackpink in the area
I really like both the concept and execution of this post nice job.
Chad Green to the Mets makes a lot of sense to me. He used to play in New York. The Mets will spend money before surrendering talent based on their deadline deals last year. Great fit imo.
Jays should probably blow it up. One thing people forget when a team sells is not only does the selling team get the prospects they also get the salary relief. For example if they trade Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt they will get prospects but also a huge amount of money will come off the books for 2025. They really don’t have to rebuild they can spend that money and compete in 2025.
TheGr8One
If they trade Guerrero Bichette and Bassitt it’s a rebuild. Pretty sure the definition of rebuild is “trade your 3 best players” or something along those lines.
Blackpink in the area
Those 3 guys alone will make approximately 65 million in 2024 combined. They can absolutely spend that 65 million on different players. And while those are arb salaries for Guerrero and Bichette they might be able to sign guys to longer deals or backloaded deals to make their 2025 salaries cheaper. So no they don’t have to rebuild just because they trade those 3 guys they really don’t. The benefit to the Jays is the Jays are selling those players 2024 performances which at this point don’t mean much to the Jays since they are unlikely to make the playoffs.
TheGr8One
That assumes you can replace that quality of play for that money. It also assumes they’ll spend all 65 million which based on their tax situation they won’t. I see that a lot people saying things like “they’re saving 65 million so they’re gonna spend 65 million”. Says who? Tons of assumption. Fact is you trade your 3 best players you’ve entered a rebuild how long that rebuild lasts is determined by a lot of factors some not in the teams control. Are the prospects going to work out? Can you replace that talent while minimizing tax levels? When you move a known or several knowns for unknowns that’s pretty much a rebuild.
Blackpink in the area
I believe you can replace the quality of those 3 guys for 65 million.
If they want to save money then they could trade them and not replace them. That’s an option and if they want to do a full rebuild perhaps that’s what they do. But my point is they don’t have to do it that way. People assume they do but they don’t.
Even if the prospects don’t work out so what? They still have all that money to spend. But odds are some of the young talent will work out and help them in the future.
TheGr8One
Im just not seeing the logic the talent you don’t want anymore costs 65 million and you think you can improve upon that with the same cash while bidding against other teams? That just doesn’t make sense.
Tigers3232
@Blackpink The issue is the talent is not their in free agency to easily replace them. And as Gr8one pointed out the price to replace. Two of those 3 are not making free agent money yet.
I do think trying to move Bassit would be a good move. That would help them get under cap and do so saving as alit of talent.
JoeBrady
Blackpink in the area43 mins ago
I believe you can replace the quality of those 3 guys for 65 million.
======================
That generally doesn’t work out.
1-How much WAR do you lose? I’d estimate 9.
2-How do you replace 9 WAR for $65M? My guess is that they will replace the 9 WAR with new long-term contracts, just replicating their current issues.
Blackpink in the area
I think 9 million is a fair estimate although those 3 aren’t producing at that rate in 202 so far. 9 WAR should theoretically cost about 75 million. Backload a contract and poof down to 65 million. And of course they can spend more or less if they want to. Their current situation isn’t a result of long term contracts except Springer. The rest are just underperforming.
This can be done. I will say it for the 4th time trading those 3 players does not have to signify a rebuild. It can. They can choose to do that but they don’t have to.
Tigers3232
Which 3 free agents specifically would u propose they sign to replace those 3 and do they have an interest in playing in Canada or for the Jays?
I’m all for proposing a team spend to fill needs. But it’s not always that easy. You have to look at what’s available and if those available are interested in playing there.
JoeBrady
Their current situation isn’t a result of long term contracts except Springer. The rest are just underperforming.
=========================
Some of it is also due to their players aging. Gausman, Bassitt and Kikuchi are 33, 35, and 33.
But you are right on the under-performance for Vlad and Bichette.. But that could also be seen as a reason for NOT trading them. You would almost have to be selling low.
MoneyBallJustWorks
yes because as we saw last offseason, players were itching to sign with Toronto. now take away your all star, a good pitcher and a youngish SS.
I get your thought process but this team would take $65 million, spend $30 and pocket the rest of the savings for a rainy day.
Blackpink in the area
When a player only has a year and a half of control left selling low isn’t really a thing. Because if they don’t sell them in July that’s one less postseason run you get from them.
Blackpink in the area
If they spend 30 million and save the rest for when the team is closer to competing that’s not a bad thing at all. They would have the flexibility to do that or whatever else they want. And most importantly they get the prospects. Prospects they really need.
KamKid
Blackpink, I agree with your sentiment with individual players. Like Chris Bassitt could be a really good way to get under the CBT, add some minor prospects (if a team is taking his money, the return won’t be all that exciting), and allow you to repurpose his money in free agency. I don’t think it would be all that difficult to find a player as impactful as Bassitt for $21m. However, there’s not enough here to trade both Vlad and Bo and be able to replace them easily in free agency. If you feel like you have internal replacements for those guys, then you could do it and shuffle the money around to other needs. There are going to be a lot of other needs as they are losing players and they aren’t a good team to begin with. $65m can buy a fair bit in free agency, but if you are aiming for impact, it’s going to cost you $65m each year going forward and in free agency, that typically means committing to the decline years soon after. I don’t think it’s a good idea to buy 30 somethings for multiple years beyond ‘25 if they aren’t added to some sort of foundation. Vlad and/or Bo could be part of that foundation as players who’ll be in their prime in those years. But if they aren’t interested in extending them, then they need to explore impactful trades so there might be good players in those years. Ownership has enough money to run high enough payrolls to supplement a talented roster, but no team has enough money to buy a whole good team in free agency with any chance of sustainability.
Blackpink in the area
Bassitt is overpaid. You can easily replace him for less than his 2025 salary. Guerrero will make roughly 25 million in 2025. How much do you think he would make as a free agent? If it’s more it’s not much more. Bichette will make 17 million in 2025 he will be underpaid IF he bounces back but that’s not a guarantee. He’s overpaid in 2024 he’s having a poor year. These aren’t valuable long term assets. Much of their value is their 2024 performance from now until the end of the year and that’s value the Jays won’t benefit from. That’s why it makes sense to deal them.
Ashleyr
. Many players are having down years that make 30 M a year. Those teams should trade them. At the end of the day, the Jays are stuck with no names, retreads, and journeymen on the roster hitting .149 with a team home run of 10, 40 RbI’s and an Ops of .430. Yeah, that is the outlook for ten years Anyone that believes the team will acquire players and pay them 30 M over 10 years are delusional. If the Jays trade Bo and Vlad, look for a bottom-feeder team for ten years that remain last in the standings until another foundation is found in the minors. It takes a roster of 26 players to win, not one superstar that is overpaid. All the Boras players that wanted 300M and up are all worse than the blue jay team, so how would they have helped in 2024.
KamKid
Vlad would get a lot more than $25m in free agency. He’d get at least $200m. Any player of that quality in free agency is going to be $25m X several years. If only looking at roster building in one year increments, sure, you could trade those guys and replace them with similarly priced and similarly effective players if those players choose to sign with you (free agents do have a say in the matter whereas you control the players under contract). But you can’t look at it that way. If they are going to try to compete next year with so much uncertainty in the years beyond that, they are better to retain the flexibility and compete with the guys who are only guaranteed money through next year rather than trading those guys and putting a bunch of multi year contracts on the books. Your point about their ‘24 value being of no value to them while it would be for someone else therefore they can trade them and get more value and repurpose the money is a fine theory. But it doesn’t work in the context of trying to replace those guys immediately for contention the next year when you already have so much to do and when you would be left with not a single everyday profiles position player on your roster. In that sense. If you remove the context of trying to be competitive next year, as they probably should, then trading those guys makes all the sense in the world, but not turning around and giving out multi year deals of that magnitude in free agency. I think they really need to think about ‘26. They’ll have some veterans under contract still, some upper year arb guys like Kirk and Varsho if they are tendered all the way through, but no real candidates to be impact major leaguers by then. They aren’t going to get major impact prospects in their trades as most of their trade candidates have limited value because of control window, salary, or current/recent performance. They might do well enough to get some potential major leaguers though and there are a couple of internal candidates who’d hold down an active roster spot at some point in the future. That’s where a Vlad and/or Bo extension would make some sense. You don’t often get to sign free agents who will play a good bulk of their contract in their prime years. But if it’s not a desire or possibility to keep extend either, I’d prefer they trade them now than pretend they have a path to contention next year. I would have made a Bo trade last offseas As it was clear this roster wasn’t quite right heading into TT his season but the return on a Bo trade at that time might have painted a brighter picture for ‘25 or ‘26.
Blackpink in the area
The Jays aren’t contending THIS YEAR. So to assume they will keep all their guys and contend again next year is a big assumption. If you trade those guys you get the prospects and the Jays need prospects bad. They get those and they can go out and spend on free agents. Guerrero isn’t worth more than 25 million a year. Bassitt is definitely overpaid. The only one of those 3 that is potentially underpaid is Bichette and he’s been bad in 2024. Those 3 guys are not some generational talents that are irreplaceable.
Tigers3232
Which free agents 1B and SS should replace them??
KamKid
If they are all overpaid or as bad as you say, they aren’t going to get any notable prospects in trade so it really won’t help their outlook. Unless they retain the salary in which case, they won’t have the $65m you think is going to buy them better players. I can’t think of upgrades on next year’s market that will only cost $65m. I’m not arguing that these players have more on field value to Toronto than another team. You’re right about that. I just don’t think it’s possible to build a contender through free agency when they already have so much moving on from the team.
Blackpink in the area
Those are their 2025 salaries. Their 2024 salaries are lower and of course the season is more than half over. There is a lot of value in the 2024 statistics those 3 can provide, value that the Jays simply dont need. That’s why it makes sense to trade them.
You can’t think of any way the Jays could spend 65 million next year? We’ll try harder.
They wouldn’t just be building a contender through free agency they would also be using the prospects that they acquire in the trades. And they don’t have to do that they can save money for years down the road my point is only that they can not that they should.
Tigers3232
Again who of the upcoming free agents should they sign? You are saying it as though talents like Vlad Jr and Bichette are just everywhere.
I do agree that trading them might be wise. However, they’re not just replacing them in free agency. And trading them is the start of a rebuild. Bichette and Vlad Jr have been the catalysts of that lineup. We re seeing right now what a down year in their production brings. Take them away and it’s even worse. Part of the problem for them 2 is no protection in lineup. Subtracting those 2 would be extremely bleak for the short term. But with how little is around them it might be wise.
jdgoat
I don’t think they’re trading those players if they’re looking to compete in 2025. I’d hope they either keep all and try something different this offseason or dump everybody and enter a full rebuild. Going half in half out isn’t going to make a difference when it comes to catching the rest of the AL.
Blackpink in the area
I think they could. If those guys don’t want to sign long term then they might as well trade them off and they could start over in 2025. Heck Bassitt is overpaid so getting out of that contract would be win in itself.
People assume that the Jays would have to rebuild if they trade those 3 guys and that’s just not true. 65 million could buy a lot of help. It could replace those 3. You take Kiermaier and Turners money and Chad Green and spend that too and you can build a contender.
mlb fan
“Could buy a lot of help”…Buying the core of your team at market rates is simply not feasible or sustainable in MLB. If you trade your 3 best players, your only sane course of action is a complete rebuild. Anything else would be baseball malpractice.
TheGr8One
100% agree. 65 million doesn’t go as far in free agency as some think.
Blackpink in the area
If your 3 best players are making market rate salaries then you can absolutely trade them away and replace them with free agents the next year. Like I said you can actually save yourself some money by giving guys longer term deals Ala Bryce Harper. There is value to contending teams in the 2024 performances of those 3 guys. Value that the Jays don’t need since they aren’t any good and won’t make the playoffs.
TheGr8One
And you’re getting 3 former (and current) all star players for 65 million? Again assuming they match payroll which I can’t see how they would given what a second tax tier does beyond the money (QO picks gained and lost etc.). Ok I’ll be the first one to say what everyone is thinking you’re also doing all of this in Canada? Sorry it’s true some places (like my hometown Mariners) have a harder time with FA due to location. That’s just reality I’m not picking on Canadians don’t start chucking maple syrup bottles over the border…
bestone
Maybe take a cue from Ohtani….and defer a whole bunch of money….
Tigers3232
Bichette and Vlad have been under team control. Both of them are making less than free agent market value.
Blackpink in the area
65 million is a huge sum of money. Yes they can sign a lot of talent for 65 million, not to mention all the other salary that’s coming off the books from the guys who are free agents after 2024. Even if they take a small step back in 2025 they will still have the prospects acquired in those trades that will help them for years to come.
Like I have said now for the third time people don’t get it. Trading away those guys would NOT mean they have to rebuild.
Tigers3232
Adames, Kim, and DeJong those are the main SS’s who will be free agents. As for 1B Hoskins, Goldy, Alonso, Tellez, Walker, OHearn.
Hoskins has an $18M player option if he opts out it ll be cus he’s projected to get more. Vlad is at $20M right now. O’s likely picking up team option for $7.5M on OHearn. Alonso gonna make more than $20M. That leaves Tellez and Goldy. That’s if either want to play in TOR and neither is likely to be as productive as Vlad Jr
TheGr8One
No we get it. We heard you everytime we don’t agree with you. You’re listening to multiple people telling you you’re wrong and just repeating what people are telling you is wrong. My kid does that if she repeats something false enough it becomes true. She’s 9….
Blackpink in the area
Who is we? Stop acting like you represent anyone except yourself. That’s lame.
Hayman19
Not to mention, people here are saying you can replace Vlad, Bo, Bassit & Gausman for $65 Million (Which you probably cant), but you still need to buy a better supporting cast as the team is not competitive as is.
Only option for this team is a rebuild at this point as their farm is weak.
Blackpink in the area
Hay man Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt will make about 65 million combined. Gausman will make an additional 23 million. Yes you can replace those 3 guys for 65 million it’s not that difficult. You also have Turner and Kiermaier coming off the books and both of them are overpaid. And yeah the farm system is weak that’s why you trade those guys you get prospects back for them.
People don’t get it. They don’t have to rebuild even if they trade away those 3 guys. They could but they don’t have to.
TheGr8One
We is the multitude of people telling you your math is wrong, your logic is terrible and your grasp of the situation is ridiculous. And it’s not just me saying it I’m just using the not so nice words.
Blackpink in the area
Use the term we like you did again and i will put you on mute. Then you will be like a tree in a forest.
CBeisbol
“I really like both the concept and execution of this post nice job.”
Agreed
Higher grade for the concept then execution, though.
MLBTR should consider adding in a chat function. Might make things easier
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
It would be fun to be able to chat in real time here but I could see myself squandering even more hours I will never get back on this website when I should be out scouring for women or trying to make a living or something.
AToweringFlyBall
You’d think the Blue Jays were in first place considering the number of articles written about them.
jdgoat
I mean it kind of makes sense that a website revolving around transactions would write a lot of articles about the team that looks to be among the most active on the transaction front.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
It’s the only baseball team for an entire nation!! Of course it deserves some more space.
jdgoat
Like you said it pretty much just comes down to how much quality teams would be willing to give up if Toronto ate significant salary. If eating a contract gets you a top prospect that projects to be an MLB player, go that way. If it gets you a couple high risk lottery tickets, just do whatever you can to dip under the tax and don’t penalize yourselves this offseason. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
My proposal was Bo Bichette to the Mariners for Emerson Hancock, Ryan Bliss, and Tai Peete.
TheGr8One
No thanks hard no not a chance I’m Lucy and I’m pulling that ball away from your kick Charlie Brown.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
It might be a little heavy on the Mariners end but I’m grading Bichette just on his ’22 and ’23. (Don’t know why he couldn’t get back to that level?) Bo would play second
TheGr8One
Far too much of an ask for a year and a half of control in a down year. Sure Bichette could get back to playing that way but that’s not how it works. What have you done for me lately. Toronto doesn’t have to move him but also shouldnt expect a 2022 return in 2024
Stevil
What would Seattle do with Bo? He hasn’t played any other positions and he isn’t going to replace JP. You couldn’t just throw him into the fire at second.
IKF, on the other hand…
TheGr8One
They tossed around the idea of JP at second when that heavy FA SS year was (Seager Correa, Story) if the move made the team better JP would do it
Stevil
The same point applies to JP: You can’t throw him into the fire.
They could consider a change early in the offseason, but not in July or August.
Slider_withcheese
Shapiro and Atkins have been there 9 years and their teams have not won a single playoff game in that time. Maybe start there.
jdgoat
Technically you have to count either 2016 as playoff wins, whether you count the Cleveland or Toronto playoff run. But no wins since they’ve exited their rebuild almost five years ago.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
2015 was a time to be a blue jay fan…
They should’ve gone to the WS they had the story the vets the feel but those royals deserved it more
The Bautista bat flip will always be remembered
jdgoat
Yep that second half was probably the most magical stretch any of my favorite teams have went on. Shame they couldn’t pull it off, and now it looks like this core wont ever either.
its_happening
Real Jays fans do not count 2016 or 2020. Ignore what the homer said.
olmtiant
Justin Turner… you’re flight back to Boston leaves in a hour…
Acoss1331
Is he on the plane to Boston now? Asking for Morosi…
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
I think Boston should set their sights a bit higher. 39 years old is a bit long in the tooth and the RS already have ample DH fodder. You don’t want Turner in the field any longer. Time for red beard to make his graceful exit.
JoeBrady
I doubt they’d see much savings. No one is taking on JT’s salary, for example, without TO attaching a prospect in the trade. Same with Kiermaier.
Tigers3232
Yeah I don’t see them getting under luxury tax with rentals. If anyone was willing to pay Kiernaier they could ve just claimed him.
I’d say Bassit would be easiest path to getting under the tax.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Something tells me there will be a fire sale incoming…
olmtiant
Joe.. you don’t think if the jays pick up half his salary and Redsox throw in mid 20-30 range prospect CB wouldn’t pull trigger?? I get it he’s 64 and all but I get the Steve Pierce vibe about him.. plus great club house guy…
JoeBrady
He’s likeable, but with only 1 H?R since May 3rd.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Red Sox might be nice fit for Bassitt ???
JoeBrady
He’s a good pitcher, but on the decline. I certainly wouldn’t hang up on them, but the $22M due in 2025 feels a bit heavy.
But I agree that he should be added to the list of possibles. I’d also be interested in IKF. We’d be buying high, but he checks all kinds of boxes.
pb111 2
George Springer to the Phillies for non top prospect(s)..and off set some of the money by giving them Taijuan Walker. Saves the Jays 12.2 mil. adding 6.1 mil to Phillies this year & next. Who knows maybe Walker can comeback next year & be a half descent 4/5 & they can flip him again
terrymesmer
Ron?
its_happening
Who is Ron?
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Ron McDonald, often plays clown mascot at local kiddie restaurant. Don’t ask me why I know that. Will play Mall Santa in offseason.
JoeBrady
If I were the Jays, I would just send him off and eat some salary. Getting under the cap might be their best objective.
CBeisbol
“Unless they crack off an 11-game winning streak between now and the deadline, they’ll be looking to do some selling in the coming weeks”
If they go 10-1 they’ll be sellers, but if they are 11-0 they won’t?
terrymesmer
Relax.
JoeBrady
I know the type. My guess is that you are incapable of relaxing. And, FWIW, there is nothing wrong with that. I often swing between being 100% on, to barely showing a pulse.
But picking on 11-0 instead of 10-1 is just noise.
JoeBrady
Would it make any difference if they said 11-0 or 10-1? Of would that just trigger the question of 9-2? I’m pretty sure this is more a theoretical abstract suggesting that they’d have to play far better if they want to stay away from a trade-off.
TheGr8One
That’s really a dumb comment you know what he meant you wanted to feel smart. No 10-1 changes nothing happy points for you. Get serious you know what he meant. Adults talking here
slider32
The Jays are at a crossroad, they have to look in the mirror and see if they can beat the O’s or Yanks in the next 2 years by tweaking the roster. If not they will need to move Vlady and Bichette over the winter.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
There are some pundits who think this team would be utterly unwatchable without Vladdy on it and that it’s imperative that he sign an extension. With the recent renovations, you cannot put out an unwatchable product. It would send a horrible message to Jays fans who are normally very loyal (I see how they flock down to Mariners games from B.C. & Alberta and make us sing the Canadian National Anthem which is no picnic let me tell ya.)
TheGr8One
That might be the most thoughtful take on this situation yet. It’s not always about the dollars going out but the dollars coming in
cwsOverhaul
Would most Toronto fans be okay with dealing Vlad Jr and/or Bichette?
They are not winning w/them now in their prime. Paying good players “great” money is where organizations get crushed if that’s their plan, especially if it covers a fair bit of likely diminished returns years.
its_happening
I would, but I do not trust this regime. Haven’t trusted them since they didn’t trade assets in 2017. Also very hard to see a strong return for Bichette considering his 2024 season.
It’s also difficult to see the Jays be willing to lose 100+ games the next two years.
Samuel
its_happening, jimmertee, and other Jays fans that hit the board here regularly with comments…..
Sorry but the Blue Jays President is much like Canada’s PM.
Smiles. Thinks he’s magnetic. Drops snappy buzzword-filled phrases that don’t mean much but sound like they do. Glad-handles everyone in sight. Loves to spend money “investing” in things. When there are major problems they’re quirk to point the flinger publicly at underlings, rather than tighten up the ship in private. When one looks back their record appears poor. But when considering the amount of money spent and the resources at their disposal, the record then appears to be more in the range of mediocre / awful / unacceptable / insulting to those impacted.
Nevertheless, they’re friends to all. They collect people that had power but were let go. They bring them in to do heaven knows what. (In the Jays case see Mattingly, Don and Click, James.)
The lesson:
Marketing is a great complimentary discipline. One can market a product and be successful. But marketing itself without understanding the space the product is competing in…….
its_happening
You’re not wrong Samuel. Unfortunately those who sounded the alarm 6-7 years ago were met with ridicule, told to “trust the process”, meanwhile using recent history to guide us.
There are fans who care and understand the many mistakes ownership has made since 2000. Those who’ve been most critical are those fans.
Samuel
its_happening;
I was one that sounded the alarm as well.
MLB – like everything else – goes in cycles. The O’s are going to contend for years. Yankees always spend. Red Sox may have righted the ship…time will tell. The Rays will not remain down for long.
There is no short-term actions that Jays can take to make them competitive in the ALE over the next few years short of 2-3 other teams suffering multiple major injuries to key players. The veterans are almost all past their peak. The Jays have no functioning organization. The coaching staffs and others aren’t making players better. They have no style of play or continuity to anything they do.
Current circumstances may be a blessing. Ownership has the power to bring in a new person at the top of Baseball Ops to build an organization FIRST. Then the players can follow. MLB is now all about organizations. The superior ones compete for more than a year or two.
longtimefan
Well said
its_happening
Ownership has caused the current culture. They helped destroy what was once a top tier development organization.
bestone
If this is visible from a fan’s viewpoint, I’m sure the players understand the shortcomings of their own organization. Could also account for free agents taking a pass, and players not re signing…
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Samuel condescends to lecture us on Canadian politics and the supernatural greatness of the Baltimore Orioles organization while the collective readership of MLBTR rolls their eyeballs back into their heads and groans.
JoeBrady
Ouch & 100% correct.
bestone
The current FO seems to love the pitchers coming from Dodgerland….perhaps they can land another mitch white….
Seriously, there seems to be a programming error in the analytics team’s software. Maybe hacked by a Yankee’s fan….
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Ryan Yarbrough might be available. Spot starter and longman like your buddy White.
its_happening
Yarbrough owned the Jays at times.
CBeisbol
Slider
“they have to look in the mirror and see if they can beat the O’s or Yanks in the next 2 years by tweaking the roster”
Not really
They just need to see if they can win enough games to win a WC spot
bestone
This is a problem…the Jays need to be better than attempting to squeak into the playoffs. There isn’t a pitcher that fears this lineup…currently opposing pitcher’s stats get better after playing this squad…
JoeBrady
Citation requested
======================
They are 0.1 RPG ahead of Oakland for 27th place. Need any further citation?
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
No, that’s the Mariners silly.
JoeBrady
You have provided 0 evidence to support the claim
======================
You know this is unproveable. We don’t have a survey of every pitcher in baseball to determine whether or not they are afraid of anyone in TO. They have one regular with an OPS higher than .758. Only two higher than .721.
But, if you want something more scientific, consider IBBs. IBBs are situational, but over a full season, those situations tend to even out. TO is tied for 27-29th in IBB. That suggests that there are not a lot of guys to fear.
JoeBrady
Okay, I was off-base on my response, but that sentiment is easily proveable.
If a pitcher faces a team that is below average in offense, their stats, overall, will improve.
The jays score 0.3 less rpg than the average team. That means opposing pitchers give up 0.3 less RPG than against the average team. I’m pretty sure that has to be an absolute.
slider32
Vlad and Bo look like hey are going to free agency in 2 years, and I don’t think the Jays have a good chance of making the playoffs this season. So that means either you trade them over the winter for a good return or wait until the deadline. If they are close to getting in they have to keep them, but if they are out of it they will get less for them in a trade.. What would you do? For me I would trade them over the winter and sign other position players to build the team.
NoSaint
The 2 players on that list I would consider not moving and trying to extend are Jansen and Richards. If they can’t extend Jansen, Kirk becones the primary with a very weak field of AAA and AAAA catchers
Richards stays because of his versatility.
its_happening
The trouble with Jansen is durability. He’s going to want decent money, and he’s struggled to stay in the lineup. I wish they extended him the moment they traded Moreno.
bestone
Maybe needs some padding on some batters gloves…?
NoSaint
@its_happening
Durability (aka injuries) was addressed when they developed the padding to protect his hands and wrists.
its_happening
Maybe. He’s had injuries to his hands hitting and behind the plate. I think extension had to be done when they made that deal for Varsho. It’s been a year and a half, and with the current catching depth in MLB, Jansen’s price is going up.
Jays certainly put themselves in this position.
GASoxFan
I understand the reasons not to, but, with a team so close to the threshold, if there’s players on the 40-man Toronto intended to non-tender, but not on the 26-man, would trading some of those, or exposing them to waivers like kiermeier, effectively lower the CBT figure by a final bit if they were close enough? I’d think so, and, 2 months wouldn’t be that long if it’s just playing out the string anyways
You’re not saving 4M by that, but, might save enough to eat some of KKs deal nobody would claim and still duck under
its_happening
It makes sense to deal Vlad in a year where he’s trending upward. Unless the Jays are prepared to extend him, it makes no sense not to deal him.
Keeping Bo at the deadline makes sense. He’s having a down year. They’d need him to have a strong August and September.
What could happen is the Jays trade any player who’s about to walk and keep everyone else. At this point the Jays need to make a tough decision on Bo and Vlad; keep them long term or maximize the value they have left in a trade.
Armaments216
Yeah, even the offers they get for Vlad might be underwhelming compared to the value of keeping him and QO’ing him after 2025.
Seems like the best course would be to find a taker for Bassitt or Gausman so they can dip back under the CBT line. Then reload with a FA starter in the offseason for one last try with the current core.
its_happening
Agreed on the pitchers.
I think some had soured on Vlad coming into this season, but you could be right. Other suitors could see the Jays not being in a position of strength.
Ashleyr
You are aware that Vlad is 25 and Bo is 26. Those are players other teams covet because they can sign them for 15 years and get their prime years. The Yankees did that to get a 25 year old Soto. teams build around players that are young, NOT older or in their thirties. There are NO guarantees that ANY player will work out that the Jays receive in return. Oakland are a team to watch. They trade their best players every year and have been a bad team for years. That is what fans can expect by trading off Bo and Vlad. If fans believe the Jays would sign 30 M a year players, they are delusional and not thinking clearly. The Jays will take ten years to acquire journeymen, cast-offs, and the draft, trading any player that show signs of life at the deadline. There are too many examples and thousands of players that didn’t make the majors and stick there.
Armaments216
The Padres’ return for 1 season of Soto might be a pretty good comp for what the Jays might expect for a year and a half of Vlad. San Diego got some good complementary pieces from the Yankees. But probably no one who’s going to develop into a foundational player like a Soto or a Vlad.
its_happening
Yes, no guarantee trades will work out. Yet you also say the Jays can’t sign $30-mil a year players which implies they can’t extend Bo and Vlad. So, deal them.
If the trades do not work it means the Jays will be picking high in the draft for 3-4 years and will need to hit on at least one player per draft year.
Do you have a better solution, Ashleyr?
Samuel
It’s what I wrote above…..
The issue is the awful baseball organization in place.
Trading 2 seemingly marketable young veterans for even 4-5 quality prospects is going to accomplish what? Start with which department is going to be evaluating the trade proposals. Look at their record. Then if 4-5 quality prospects come – 1) What makes anyone think that organization can develop them; and 2) Exactly how does one build a MLB team on 4-5 young players…even if they all are above average players…..and the chances of that happening…..
its_happening
There needs to be an overhaul from the top down. We know this. Front office, scouting, analytic department, coaching at all levels, philosophy, all need to change. Chances are that’s not happening (no pun intended).
TheGr8One
Problem is if Bo doesn’t have a great august and September you’ve lost two things going into the offseason. A half year of control (technically 1/3) and buyer urgency. Everyone’s 0-0 in the offseason your return is diminished when you lose the urgency of the deadline push.
its_happening
Yes this is true. But isn’t it a gamble worth taking? Let’s remember Bo was having a so-so 2022 until he had an incredible last 6 weeks of the season. Jays would need him to do that again.
Also not against an extension. Except at this point it doesn’t seem close to happening.
CTS4
shapiro and atkins are the wrong guys to be doing this…..
Samuel
Excellent article.
A complicated subject.
Informative and clearly written.
longtimefan
Shatkins poor job of developing a farm system has put them in this terrible position. I don’t see how they will be able to compete again in 2025 as they don’t have cheaper replacements coming up to fill position. 9 years and they haven’t built what they said would be sustainable. No turnaround until Shatkins replaced and having them make deadline trades is irresponsible
gorav114
The AL East will not allow mediocrity. If Toronto is unable to sign some of their main guys to long term extensions they should dump everything they can and reload.
JoeBrady
I would stick together one more year.
1-They can duck under pretty easily next year
2-They’re having a bad year, but they’ve been running at ~ 90 wins the past few seasons.
3-You have to assume that Vlad, Bichette, Gausman and Romano are due for some positive regression.
its_happening
Part of the challenge is we can agree the O’s and Yankees are better than they were in 2023, and the O’s certainly from 2022. Rays might be due for progression in 2025. Then there’s the Red Sox….
Hyper competitive division and the best in baseball. Even if they stick it out for a year, is it worth finishing 3rd place next year?
JoeBrady
is it worth finishing 3rd place next year?
============================
If I had to ponder that, I might do so in conjunction with the return.
In the easiest scenario, if I had a borderline #3 WC team, with an unquestioned star, it would encourage me to cash in and blow my chances of a possible #3 WC. Specifically, Ohtani in 2022. The Angels weren’t making the playoffs in 2022, and were borderline in 2023, with Ohtani’s 1.5 years left probably guaranteeing you multiple top-100 or top-50 types.
With TO, particularly with Bo, I’m not sure what the return will be. If the NYY were offering Domminguez+ for Vlad, I might change my mind.
its_happening
Yep. Bo having an off year does not help his value.
jdgoat
I don’t know if Vlad will have positive regression. He’s having a pretty good season now and this might just be who he is. A good to great player who won’t live up to the superstar status that was once promised. But even with the rest I don’t know if it will be enough to even compete for a playoff spot. They had pretty much everything go right for them last year which led to 90 wins. This year barely anything is going right and they likely finish 10-15 games below .500. I’m guessing running this team back will likely meet somewhere in the middle of 2023 and 2024 which will be just spinning our tires in the mud with a middling performance.
CTS4
Remember the soft rebuild shapiro and useless atkins told us about and then went out for “their” Big signing….Kendrys Morales, We @ Jays Nation were in trouble then ….
its_happening
Technically Kendrys was signed while “contending”. Then they botched 2017 at the deadline. Career year from Justin Smoak with a good contract and they didn’t trade him.
Blackpink in the area
Looking at the Jays if they wanted to get rid of all players who are signed no longer than 2026 they could trade away a whopping 18 players that imo have value without taking salary into consideration. 18 freaking guys.
Guerrero
Turner
Bichette
Kiermaier
Springer
Varsho
Jansen
Kirk
Kalefa
Gausman
Kikuchi
Bassitt
Romano
Garcia
Pearson
Green
Cabrera
Someone else can’t remember
That’s insane.
wreckage
@BPita, there is the issue. You’re not taking salary into consideration. Take salary into consideration and there may be about 5 guys on that list worth what they’re making and it handcuffs them currently and going forward.
Blackpink in the area
Salary is already a sunk cost. The Jays are not poor. They can pay all of Kiermaier and Turners salary and get something in return for those guys. Springers deal is ugly for sure. Bassitt is a bit overpaid. But over half that list is valuable even with salary taken into consideration.
JoeBrady
As a RS fan, I wouldn’t be interested in KK at all, and only interested in JT at a very attractive price. Even if they picked up 100%, they wouldn’t get much of a prospect.
Oddly enough, even though Springer has the worst contract, he also has the most talent, and has been playing very well. He’d be a huge asset for a team like the Phillies, and eating $40M or so of his contract should get them a nice return.
NoSaint
@JoeBrady
The value of trading Turner is that his absence frees up PA’s for Horwitz and not what the return would be.
johns-11
Shi.*&! Terrible management.
Trick82
The problem is.. Nobody wants any of those rental players.
Digdugler
Yimii was really good before he went on the IL…not sure what his status is. Jansen has had a rough month but is a solid starting catcher, Kooch would be a soiid pickup for a lot of teams looking for starter depth. KK and Turner, no one is taking for free.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Sell the team!!! Move it to Montreal!!!
Jeff Ringer
Kudos – great article.
It always comes down to money. This take is one no one else is mentioning BUT I feel is being talked about in the C suite.
CTS4
“shapiro and atkins need to go for the team to win.” The Toronto Sun, 5 YEARS AGO !!
Ain’t it the truth !!!
CO Guardening
Seems like the only two people who think the Jays improve in 25 is Atkins & Shapiro.
Personally, when those two left Cleveland, I jumped for joy.
Dustyslambchops23
It’s actually wild how poorly this roster is constructed. A baseball executive finally got rogers to spend like a big league team and they don’t have a a 4th outfielder or a 6th starter.
Beyond the obvious pains of this window, I really hope Atkins didn’t ruin things for the next regime.
WiffleBall
Makes you realize that maybe GM’s like Cashman — hated by their fanbase for not winning a world series — are actually not that bad at their jobs.
Blue Jays tried to be the Yankees with money and now they’re in last place. Meanwhile, the Yankees haven’t finished last in the division during the Wild Card era, and haven’t been under .500 since Cashman took over 25 years ago.
Say what you will about wanting a title, but the Yankees haven’t been awful since the ’80s. That’s pretty unprecedented — even the juggernaut Braves had a lengthy stretch of losing baseball less than a decade ago.
As a Yankees fan, I’m pretty happy that my team has a chance to win every year. Because at the end of the day, I want fun baseball. I don’t need a title every year. The fact that I can watch 6 months of baseball and always feel like my team is in contention is a big effing deal — it means more games I can watch and be invested in. Every. Single. Year.
Dustyslambchops23
Nah cash man sucks too.
He’s had the best hitter and base all in pitcher and his 6-9 hitters would struggle in AA.
KamKid
If resetting their CBT status is a goal, and I think it maybe should be, then they probably need to be willing to move players controlled beyond this season. Seems like Chris Bassitt and Chad Green could be really good opportunities to get them a good ways towards that goal. Then they can focus on better returns in other trades by retaining salary. It’s too close with only the rentals and that will mean returns will be limited as most of these rentals are not exactly bargains at their salaries and if you absolutely need all salary to go in all trades, the field of potential trade partners narrows. It’s already pretty narrow for the position players.
stell
They put themselves in a bad cap situations by making some bad signings. Felifa and KK were not needed. Turner as well.
HalosHeavenJJ
I’d be fine with the Angels trading Taylor Ward to the Jays for George Springer, Tiednamm, Nimalla, and Macko.
Gets the Jays well below the threshold, gives them a quality player for the next 2 years, and gets the Angels some much needed prospects.