The Brewers are kicking off their summer trade season with a deal to bring in some much-needed rotation help, announcing the acquisition of right-hander Aaron Civale from the Rays in exchange for infield prospect Gregory Barrios. Milwaukee designated righty Taylor Clarke for assignment in a corresponding move.
It’s one of the first notable trades of the 2024 season — one that addresses a key need for the Brewers (rotation depth) while netting some longer-term value for a Rays club that has multiple arms nearing a return from injury. Right-hander Shane Baz’s rehab from 2022 Tommy John surgery is effectively wrapped up, while southpaw Jeffrey Springs is nearing a return from his own Tommy John procedure, performed last April. Righty Drew Rasmussen, who underwent an internal brace procedure last July, is further behind that pair but is now one year removed from his surgery.
With those arms nearing a return that’ll slot them in alongside Zach Eflin, Zack Littell, Taj Bradley and Ryan Pepiot, the Rays have reportedly been open to dealing some veteran rotation help — with Civale and Littell the primary names among the reported possibilities. It bears emphasizing that there is no indication Tampa Bay is prepared to embark on a full-scale rebuild or notable summer sell-off. The organization surely feels that moving Civale (and potentially still listening on Littell and Eflin) is a matter of trading from a position of strength. The Rays exist in a perpetual state of both “buyer” and “seller,” regularly flipping veterans with dwindling levels of club control (such as Civale) in exchange for younger and more controllable talent.
While the Rays are currently flush with viable rotation candidates, the same cannot be said for a Brewers squad that has been hammered by injuries in 2024. Wade Miley underwent Tommy John surgery early in the season, and well-regarded pitching prospect Robert Gasser followed suit last month after impressing through his first five big league starts (2.57 ERA). DL Hall, acquired from the Orioles in the offseason Corbin Burnes trade, has been out since April with a knee sprain. Righty Joe Ross is on the 60-day injured list with a back strain.
The Brewers, who recently acquired Dallas Keuchel in a cash swap with the Mariners (and have received one rough start and a second sharper outing from the former Cy Young winner), have already used 15 different starting pitchers this season. Civale will make 16. At the moment, Milwaukee has Freddy Peralta, Bryse Wilson, Colin Rea and Tobias Myers in the rotation alongside Keuchel. Rea and Myers have exceeded any expectations, combining for 25 starts (14 for Rea, 11 for Myers) while both sporting earned run averages well south of 4.00. They’ve been rotation saviors for first-year skipper Pat Murphy, but some reinforcements were known to be a target for Milwaukee general manager Matt Arnold and his staff with the trade deadline now just 27 days away.
While it feels like most pitchers thrive and unlock a new gear upon being traded to the Rays organization, that hasn’t been the case for Civale. Acquired late last July in a trade sending first base prospect Kyle Manzardo to Cleveland, Civale came to the Rays with two and a half years of club control remaining and a strong track record with the Guardians. The 2016 third-rounder had battled his share of injury troubles but typically been good to great when healthy. In parts of five seasons, he gave Cleveland 430 innings of 3.77 ERA ball, all coming out of the rotation. He averaged 5 2/3 innings per outing, punched out a slightly below-average 21.1% of his opponents and limited walks at an excellent 6.1% clip.
With Tampa Bay, Civale has struggled to keep his ERA down. He’s worked to a 5.17 ERA in 132 1/3 frames dating back to last year’s deadline. That unsightly mark comes despite the fact that Civale has notably improved his strikeout rate (24.7%) even as the league-average strikeout rate has declined. He’s generally maintained his strong command, too (6.5% walk rate).
However, Civale has become increasingly homer-prone, yielding an average of 1.56 round-trippers per nine innings pitched — a sizable uptick from the 1.19 HR/9 he averaged in Cleveland. He’s also been plagued by a spike in his average on balls in play (despite Tampa Bay’s strong defense). It’s all added up to tank Civale’s strand rate and lead to more runners crossing the plate, even as metrics like xFIP and SIERA feel he’s been a comparable pitcher to his Cleveland days from a skill standpoint.
Acquiring Civale is something of a roll of the dice by the Brewers. Adding any homer-prone pitcher and plugging him into the Brewers’ homer-happy American Family Field is not without risk. That said, Milwaukee also has a reputation for maximizing pitcher performance, just as the Rays and Guardians do. The Brewers likely have their own tweaks and slight changes to game-planning that they feel can help get Civale back into his Cleveland form. Failing that, he at least ought to provide some steady back-of-the-rotation innings.
For a budget-conscious team like the Brewers, Civale surely holds some extra appeal. He’s earning a reasonable $4.9MM in 2024, with about $2.34MM of that sum yet to be paid out. The Brewers will assume the remainder of that tab. They’ll also control Civale through the 2025 season via arbitration, making him a likely multi-year member of the rotation. He’ll be due one final raise, though with his slow start to the season, his earning power via that process will be relatively suppressed even if he engineers a turnaround with the Brew Crew.
Barrios will give the Rays yet another talented infield defender to plug into the system. The Venezuelan-born 20-year-old is already in High-A and has handled the level quite well despite facing older competition. In 60 games (252 plate appearances), Barrios is slashing .317/.361/.423 (121 wRC+) with a homer, 17 doubles, two triples, 16 steals (in 22 attempts), a 5.2% walk rate and a tiny 9.5% strikeout rate.
Entering the season, Baseball America pegged Barrios 26th in Milwaukee’s system. He sat No. 21 on MLB.com’s list of the top 30 Brewers prospects at the time of the swap, and Keith Law of The Athletic listed him just outside the Brewers’ top-20 farmhands heading into the season. Barrios’ strong defensive skills and potential to be a plus glove at shortstop have made him a prospect of some note in Milwaukee’ system even as he’s struggled offensively in his first three pro seasons.
That well-regarded glove now looks all the more intriguing with Barrios hitting well against more advanced pitching in High-A. He’ll likely slot into the middle of the Rays’ top 30 or so prospects moving forward. Barrios won’t do anything to improve the Rays’ chances in 2024 (unless he’s included in a subsequent trade for help in other areas), but by late 2025 or early 2026, he could push for a big league debut if he’s able to continue this offensive breakout. He won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft until the 2025-26 offseason, so the Rays needn’t worry about adding him to the 40-man roster anytime soon.
While it’s the first notable trade of the season for both teams, it’s not likely to be the last. The Brewers could still use some rotation help and have an enviable stash of young outfielders that will continue to pique the interest of other clubs. The Rays opened one rotation spot, likely for Baz, but still have another prominent arm (Springs) on the mend with another on the horizon (Rasmussen). They’re currently three games back in the AL Wild Card race, so a full sell-off should not be expected (barring a protracted losing streak), but their stock of arms will draw interest and provide them the opportunity to either restock their farm (as they did in this deal) or add some big league help at another area of need as the deadline draws nearer.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that Civale had been traded to Milwaukee. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Brewers were sending a minor league infielder to Tampa Bay. The Post’s Joel Sherman first reported that Barrios was the return in the 1-for-1 swap.
This is where the fun begins.
It is fun. And hopefully we get an insanely early trade season. Likely will get a few more if lucky and that’s it. Teams are just so focused on the draft right now and with so many teams in the playoff mix it’s hard to get something done until after draft. But Tampa Miami Chicago have already proven they will sell early and they have more players available so could be as active as pre draft activity can be but a flurry of activity would be surprising.
This is some zesty news
Wow!
Waiting for this post to update and say we sent him to Milwaukee for cash considerations and confirm we gave Cleveland Manzardo for basically nothing lol
And that kid won’t be anything…. His swing isn’t gonna work in the Majors.
Regardless of whether he works out or not, he was still a top 100 (top 50 on some lists) prospect. The Rays traded that top prospect for one year of mediocre starting from Civale and a lower top 30 team prospect from a decent farm system. Unless you are wearing Rays-colored glasses, there is no way you could possibly interpret the Civale/Manzardo deal as anything but a major failure on Tampa’s part.
I must be wearing glasses then because Manzardo does not project well staying at the major level.
This trade will be forgotten by the end of the day.
Civale never delivered the breaking stuff low in the zone in which they signed him for.
Hope he catches fire in Milwaukee.
Yes. It’s a failure because Civale failed as a Ray and Manzardo was a top prospect who could have been traded for another MLB player who could have provided value. Now, the Rays no longer have Civale nor Manzardo. A fail as of 2024. They could still mitigate the loss if Manzardo busts and Barrios succeeds. As of today, however, a fail since it didn’t accomplish their goal.
because Civale failed as a Ray and Manzardo was a top prospect who could have been
======================
That’s faulty logic.
It is comparing what actually happened to Civale to what theoretically COULD’VE happened to Manzardo.
The comparison should be to what was expected of both player, at the time of the trade, or what happened to both players subsequent to the trade.
Basically, at the time of the trade, both sides had reason to expect more.
As of today, both sides got less than they expected.
JB
“That’s faulty logic.”
Not really
There are two ways to look at trades, both equally valid
The first, as you say, is to use the information available at the time
But, looking at what actually happened, is totally valid. What happened was: Civale didn’t really work out for the Rays – another trade could have worked out better – nothing wrong with saying that.
“nothing wrong with saying that.”
================================
That’s good to know, because that is exactly what I said.
“Basically, at the time of the trade, both sides had reason to expect more.
As of today, both sides got less than they expected.”
LordD99: Manzardo hasn’t produced as expected in the Majors yet and has subsequently been optioned back to AAA. So, neither team got what they expected (yet). There’s plenty of time for Manzardo to (eventually) have success in the Majors. There’s also plenty of time for Gregory Barrios to develop (& succeed) for Tampa Bay. If he does, then trading FOR and trading AWAY Civale will be looked at as good moves by the Rays.
JB
Yeah, so did LordD99
“It’s a failure because Civale failed as a Ray and Manzardo was a top prospect who could have been traded for another MLB player who could have provided value. Now, the Rays no longer have Civale nor Manzardo. A fail as of 2024. They could still mitigate the loss if Manzardo busts and Barrios succeeds. As of today, however, a fail since it didn’t accomplish their goal.”
To which you replied,
“That’s faulty logic.””
I doubt many teams seen Manzardo as a top 100 prospect. Certainly not top 50. The Rays definitely didn’t. Still a significant prospect to part with. But Civale was good for them. They even improved him. Now that he is nearing free agency it’s the perfect time to trade him. With Barrios they got the complete opposite of Manzardo but a nice prospect. The rankers are too low on him. I would say at worse they broke even. They probably wanted a bit more out of Civale in his time there but they didn’t walk away from him empty handed.
hiflew
Trading a player who never produced in their career, for a year of mediocre starting doesn’t seem like a major failure.
At that time it seemed like a reasonable deal for both teams. Now it it seems like a deal that didn’t work out for either team. Though, there is plenty of time for Manzardo to produce. Plus, if Barrios contributes, then the Rays could come out well on top. People need to quit trying to be so hot takey about things.
To which you replied,
“That’s faulty logic.””
======================
Which is correct. He compared Civale, who had failed, with Manzardo, who could’ve suceeded. Present and past tense comparisons.
JB
“Which is correct. He compared Civale, who had failed, with Manzardo, who could’ve suceeded. Present and past tense comparisons.”
No, he didn’t.
“Civale failed as a Ray and Manzardo was a top prospect who could have been traded for another MLB player who could have provided value.”
He compared the actual past (“failed” – simple past) to a hypothetical past (“could have been traded” – past conditional).
Faulty reading comprehension on your part.
Any reasonable prospect for a guy with a 5.07 ERA is a win. Maybe he turns it around, but his current level of performance is back end starter for a team that isn’t trying to make the playoffs.
Well as many great trades as Tampa makes its good to know they can make mistakes.
But you are looking at the results of Manzardo and I am looking at him like currency. Top 100 prospects are basically like money. You could use your money to buy a used car that breaks down all the time and barely gets you to and from work. Or you could use your money to purchase a different car. Now you don’t know beforehand which car will be better a year from now. But if you pick the one that ends up worse, you are pretty much going to say that you made a very bad decision, even if it seemed reasonable at the time. The Rays just used their money on a lemon.
Might want to check his last 6 or 7 starts. That is recent.
Manzuardo has a -0.4 WAR in his playing time with Cleveland with an OBP of .240…..I don’t think the Rays lost much but the kid can improve he’s just 23. However as of now it was a good risk on Tampa’s part to see if a veteran can right his own ship, it didn’t work and before Civale’s value dropped to far they shipped him to Milwaukee
Michael A Taylor has a positive .5 war. This kid is toast!!!!!!!!
The guy has been in the majors for a MONTH! What the hell are we doing here? Mike Trout absolutely stunk in his first month in the majors. Now I am not saying that Manzardo will become Trout, but your statement is just as ridiculous. Manzardo may end up busting, but he may not. If you are willing to write him off after a month, then what is the purpose of prospects at all. Just bring everyone up and immediately release everyone that is not a superstar after 30 days.
Last season Tampa had a decimated starting rotation. Manzardo still hasn’t hit in the majors .
also the Rays signed Yandy to an extension LY and have the top 1st base prospect Xavier Isaac. Manzardo was expendable the trade just didn’t work out.
Manzardo looked like the future, until he didn’t. Isaac looks like he could be special.
Still? The guy has only been up a month. Have we really gotten to the point where guys can’t even get acclimated to the majors before they are deemed a bust?
Luckily, Kyle Manzardo will never be a big league hitter of note. Another guy who figured out how to game ABS at AAA boosting numbers in the short term, but giving him zero ability to deal with the heater up.
The Rays always seem to get these guys who are good prospects and turn them into major leaguers. I see they’re slowly moving up in the ALE. I never count the Rays out.
Smart of you. They’ve played better of late and have a great manager who has helped them separate in tighter margins. We’ll see if it’s enough, but this looks like a strength for strength trade that helps both teams (eventually).
Unfortunately for them. 3 teams in the East are much better than they are and 2 can be counted on to not sell off at the deadline, but improve on the already best 2 in the AL, which they already are very soon.
This isn’t Tampa’s year, good 2 weeks or not.
Exactly right. With some healthy pitching, 2025 could be fun.
I would bet Boston falls off the pace and can be overtaken. It’s less than four games now, and the Red Sox have played well. Baltimore is the class of the league. New York has played extremely well, but pitching has been rough from guys with workload/injury concerns of late. If either of Soto or Judge miss a month the offense looks pretty bleak. Considering they are likely to add a useful to good player or two they should be tough in a series, but be careful coasting. We’re only halfway home.
Only if they get hammered even more with injuries and guys, like casas don’t make it back this season. tampa has no real offense to speak of, tho am myself the mind boston’s isn’t 1 to write home about. Too many averageish players, with Duran/Devers/Wong being the ones not currntly injured the special guys. Hard to win continually with average to good when lineup dragged down by the likes of a Dominic Smith, Valdez, mcQuire 1/3 games behind the plate and Hamilton for some reason not at SS most games.
Another thing is the slider hvy approach, mentioned finally last night on the broadcast has not gone as good as early in the season. Good to see Crawford stop using it early in the game.
Crawford, who sat 96-7 as a reliever and could get guys upper zone with the 4 seamer, sits 93, maybe 94 as a starter, upper zone now dangerous and his slider has always been bad. imagine it was Bailey had him incorporate it anyway. Crawford’s cutter was always his go to secondary and imagine that slider cause of the slide he’s had since may. Glad to see him abandon it, starting 3rd inning last night.
Boston, with winckowski called up has no SP in minors. Fitts isn’t close. Once again lack of drafting/developing pitching (any) comes back on them.
They have Criswell in AAA. That’s about as good as most teams, and probably better than most.
Smith has been semi-passable for about a month now. And Valdez has been a pretty good hitter.
I agree on the pitch mix. Bailey has gotten a lot of credit, but I often wonder if the breaking stuff will be medically-sustainable in the long-run. And no matter what your strategy is, if you don’t mix it up, the league will catch up to you.
I suspect that this is the driving force behind our precipitous decline in rotation numbers, while the BP has stayed almost identical.
Just don’t think every pitcher is capable of learning/throwing every pitch. Bailey has been a god send to the team coaching wise, no doubt for his teaching techniques and several guys have learned his slider well. many for years learned from pedro his change, but everyone can’t master/throw a pitch and think comes a time when those types should pivot away from one they have trouble with and try another. Crawford, if memory serves, used to throw a curve when he 1st came up with the system and now throws a splitter a few times. Maybe 1 of those is preferable to a slider, which barely moves.
Correct on valdez. he doesn’t get many hits and have myself commented as well that when he does, it isn’t a garbage time one, but timely indeed. It’s the lack of range at 2b and non hitting (ex good times) which bother me.. not to mention really want to see meidroth in the bigs.
no doubt for his teaching techniques and several guys have learned his slider well.
=====================
That’s above my pay grade. Coaching is tough to assess. But it does feel like we are getting more out of our pitching prospects now than at any point since maybe the ’80s. For all of Theo’s strengths, I don’t think we ever developed any type of pitching development regimen.
And Valdez, not much of a 2B.. But in my very humble opinion, he seems to hit well enough that I can ignore “some” range limitations. He’s hitting extremely well since the start of June (SSS) I would choose him over Grissom until Grissom proves otherwise.
Source: this guy’s crystal ball
Remember two seasons ago when the nyy got off to an incredible start, then faded and dropped back into the pack? The season is too long to get excited about long winning or losing streaks.
Really, Jason? Manzardo has had only 82 major league at bats. Wow, you easily jump to conclusions.
“Another guy who learned how to game ABS to boost numbers” do you hear how stupid that made you sound?
43 minute mark he starts discussing this with the Rates and Barrels podcast: podcasts.apple.com/lu/podcast/live-from-first-pitc…
KM: “So that’s another interesting thing out here (AFL) for me to get adjusted to, because in AAA we had the smaller zone, the ABS zone, which was like really short up top. So it’s like I kinda in my head was just eliminating anything up, because the top of the zone was so short there and out here those pitches get called now. You kinda gotta be able to protect it, yeah.
DVR: Did you like having the ABS?
KM: I mean, I loved it (everyone laughs), the pitchers probably didn’t like it.
It goes from there, but you cannot put a whole lot in AAA stats for how guys will adjust to bigs for both pitchers and hitters. Those who are seeking to put up numbers exploiting a flaw in the system are only cheating themselves.
Do you know how stupid you sound to not know things like this?
JH
“Do you know how stupid you sound to not know things like this?”
Think about all the things you don’t know
How stupid are you?
Not knowing things =/= stupidity.
==================
If ABS comes to MLB, and it seems it will, players who have experience nay have an advantage for a time.
ABS was always going to favor the hitters even if the ABS was calibrated to the correct height. 80% of all missed calls go against the hitter (framing may be the reason).
KM
“Waiting for this post to update and say we sent him to Milwaukee for cash considerations and confirm we gave Cleveland Manzardo for basically nothing lol”
Great call. Really nailed it.
First, the Ray’s got 27 starts of league averagey (by advanced metrics) pitching.
Second they got Barrios
They are arguing about a nothing-burger. The difference between Manzardo & Barrios doesn’t seem like a lot.
But more importantly, this is the way trades work. The team acquiring the veteran generally receives less in the long-run than the team acquiring the prospect.
Civale is worth less now than what he was worth a year ago, but I think this is a fine trade for Mil since it helps push them towards the playoffs without mortgaging the future.
Finally it begins
Probably just a tease. Get a lil something here and there if we are lucky but still got a few weeks until the real action.
Time for Baz!
Good call!
As a rays fan…. Thank god.
Weakest of the starting pitchers.
Would the Rays also move position players too? This could be interesting.
MR Q: As long as it isn’t Adames. I don’t understand why teams want to trade productive players. Adames was mentioned as a trade candidate last year into the off-season, but where would they find a replacement at his level? Same with the O’s and Santander. I know they have a lot of prospects, but this guy seems to come through a lot (O’s and Brewers fans: Don’t jump down my throat if I got it wrong. I don’t see them as often as you do).
(Ahhhh, who’s going to tell avenger that Adames isn’t a Ray anymore…)
Santander is amazing. I do wish he could get his BA up to .270ish, then he would be elite.
It’s the Rays. They will move any player anytime. If they think they are coming out ahead in the trade they will make it.
They are now above .500 after last night’s win. Civale’s batting average against the 3rd time through the order is terrible. Civale was the Rays worst starting pitcher in 2024.
I haven’t paid close enough attention to how Murphy handles the staff, but Counsell loved yanking starters before they faced the order a 3rd time. As depleted as the entire pitching staff has been, if they can get 4-5 decent innings from this guy, everyone will be thrilled.
Murphy waits until after the game to yank it
Baz time! Great news,
Now we know why Shane was scratched from start yesterday, not just cause of possible Rain delays all week in KC.
Baz might be in line to go Friday, TB vs Texas in Arlington, and Baz is a Texas kid as well.
Wouldn’t have minded him as a cheap an easy pickup for the Dodgers.
Oh well,
Smart move jumping in early but does Milwaukee still need another starter? It gets pretty light after Freddy Peralta.
Not sure any NLC team is a threat to challenge Brewers even with a weakened rotation.
Asking price will be high to jump the market now on anyone decent.
I probably should’ve read your comment first, since i pretty much reiterated it.
They definitely still need a rotation upgrade. Preferably someone they can plug in near the top of the rotation. Peralta is great, without a ton of pressure can pitch to be a third ace. But he’s not a team ace.
Though with Woodruff coming back next year, they could go for a rental. Team control is great, but if they can acquire Flaherty, they should. As people always say, there’s no such thing as to much pitching depth.
A third ace? I like those 5th and 6th aces
You obviously didn’t pay attention to the brewers when they had Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta. The Brewers were often said to have “three aces”. Again, because Peralta performed better when everything wasn’t on his shoulders.
I don’t pay attention to anything
Probably “okay” imo. My guess is that they are adding enough #5-6-7 types of SPs to have just enough to finish 1st, but without giving up anything of note.
I like the strategy. They are pretty likely to still make the playoffs, but they’d need to add some very expensive #1/#2 types to be a strong playoff threat.
Someone mentioned Flaherty above and I have before as well. He’s a rental but pitching like a #1 or 2. Tyler Black’s hitting ability and speed would play somewhere in Detroit even if his defense sucks. Might be a package there that could come together with those two as the principals.
You think Flaherty is going to require a T50 prospect in baseball. He’s a rental.
Flaherty has a sore back. His trade value just took a hit.
Even as a rental, Flaherty’s demand is going to raise his return. It will depend on if he pitches well after having his turn in the rotation skipped. But he’s likely going to bring Detroit a good return.
He’s having his turn skipped, but isn’t actually going on the IL right now. Until he goes on the IL or his next start after missing this one goes extremely awful, this likely isn’t going to affect his return a whole lot. Teams would also be able to look at his medicals to determine how serious they felt it was.
Annnnddd we’re off!!
To get Eflin or Littel will acquire much more better value coming back to the Rays. I really like Littel tho (still cheap & against the Royals looked very good).
Looks like a nice lottery ticket for the Rays. No power, but good contact and he’s young. Always be wary when trading with the Rays!
Not as much as in the past, but should still be noted
Brewers feeling the heat from St Louis and grabbing anything they can. As good of job as Pat Murphy has done, their garbage rotation and overrated offense will cause them to free fall in the second half, missing the playoffs entirely.
Good luck with that, the reality is it will be smooth sailing to a division title for the Brewers. This move does not ease concerns of another quick exit though.
Exactly. It helps the rotation depth and keeps them afloat, but doesn’t get them any further in the playoffs.
But losing the division lead and sinking low to miss every wild card spot? Sounds like someone just hates the brewers lol
Having or not having an “ace” starting pitcher doesn’t guarantee success or failure in the playoffs. Just a few years ago, the Brewers were one game away from the World Series with Jhoulys Chacin and Chase Anderson as their top starting pitchers. Meanwhile, they couldn’t get past the Wild Card round with Burnes and Woodward.
The Brewers have also already shown that they don’t play Philly very well this year. Regardless of whether it’s an ace, they still need an improvement.
It feels like the 8th year in a row opposing fans just expect the Brewers to stink from the jump, or tank in the second half and miss the playoffs. It certainly could happen, but I wouldn’t bet on it-even if I wasn’t a Brewer fan.
Lol no. The Cardinals are hot right now, but are not a good team.
Brewers will coast to the division title just like last year.
I’ll be surprised if Civale’s numbers don’t improve with the Brewers coaching.
I like this trade quite a bit for both teams.
Ah there’s this 1 guy coming back that makes the need for a good starting rotation less. Devin Williams you may have heard of him. Not sure how one can say the Brewers offense is overrated? Chourio just had a month near .900OPS. Garrett Mitchell is back. The only hitter that is overrated is Willy Adames.
Devin Williams coming back immensely helps the bullpen. And the lineup is fine as it is right now. But another rotation arm is still for the best, regardless of Williams coming back.
3 weeks ago Cardinals fans wanted everybody fired. Now Division 100% assured. For being such a baseball town, alot of fans sure don’t seem to understand how to ride the ups and downs of a season.
This aged well..
Sounds like Civale’s peripherals allow some room for optimism even if the headline trend doesn’t look good. Above all, the Brewers badly need more innings from their rotation. The pen has been amazing but it’s overworked and showing signs of fraying. In a worst case, Koenig’s arm strain (and he’s been fabulous) might be a signal that bodies are starting to fail.
Getting Devin Williams back will be fantastic if he’s his old self or near it. Megill behind him makes for a formidable 8th and 9th in a tight game. I’m guessing DL Hall will be in the BP when he gets back as he was a fledgling starter anyway. Hopefully Jacob Junis can provide some starting value but along with Joe Ross and some of the others mentioned in the article the rotation is definitely a patchwork and they’ll just see what works best.
2 teams going nowhere
You are the resident expert on matters pertaining to “going nowhere” …thanks Stevie!
Is the playoffs “nowhere”?
What a stupid comment.
A liberal though, so it makes sense.
Simbo, Please keep your politics out of here. Your comment made me totally ignore your baseball point.
@hockey- I think he was making a general reference to the original commenter’s user name..that includes the word liberal. So, technically the OP brought politics into it, but you responded in his thread…
Please kiss my ass
I would say that the Pirates should have picked him up, but 2.4M is waaaaay out of their price range
The only thing the Pirates don’t need is starting pitching. And 2.4 is Nutting even for them.
See ya, Keuchel.
I don’t think this move bumps Keuchel yet. They still need starting rotation depth.
His first start was definitely as expected, but his second one was better. It’ll likely depend on how his next turn through the rotation goes.
They could move Wilson back to the pen full time.
considering the second start was in Coors, it wasn’t bad.
That $1 price tag tells me they’ll run him out there til his arm falls off. Or til the end of the regular season, whichever comes first.
They’ll definitely run with him a bit longer. If both of his starts were terrible, he could have been in jeopardy already. But right now they still have use for him as long as he can pitch more like his last outing.
Sorry, but you response is way out of line and completely wrong, I wanted to bash your comment, but I am being nice. Yes, the rotation has been pieced together this year, and the Brewers have lost several starters to injury, but their offense is not overrated at all. They may not have star names that the Dodgers have, but the guys on the roster can flat out hit. Yelich has a .329 batting average, Catcher William Contreras (All Star) is hitting .292, 2nd base Bryce Turang hitting .287, Joey Ortiz 3rd base is hitting .269, Willy Adames is hitting .240 (You give up a little bit of average here for power 13 homeruns).. Plus Willy is one of the better defensive SS in all of baseball. Outfield Sal Frelick hitting .271, Garrett Mitchell just came off the DL and is hitting .333, and then there is their 20 year old rookie who was rated last year as the 2nd best prospect in all of baseball in Jackson Chourio. He struggled out of the gates (Expected for a 20 year old), but is now one of the hottest hitting outfielders in all of baseball, and has raised his average to .248 which is a huge leap from hitting below .200. At the moment, he is the hottest hitter on the Brewers team. So, once again, how is this offense overrated? In all of baseball, the Brewers are ranked 4th in team batting average at .258 just behind the Astros .263, Padres .261, and Philly .259. Overrated….NOT!
lol. This isn’t 1984. batting average.ha
5th in baseball in runs scored. I don’t care what year it is.
Getting on base is ESSENTIAL to scoring more than by a SOLO home run. There’s MANY ways to get on base (BB, HBP, error, catcher’s interference,passed ball on a 3rd strike or actually getting a hit). With these options getting a HIT or a walk are the majority of base runners. This is why TEAMS still look at batting average as BEING RELATIVELY IMPORTANT in today’s game, despite what some of us fans think.
Batting average being in short supply just makes it more valuable.
Ortiz was also doing a lot better before dealing with injuries. If the rest he’s getting takes him back up, he should be able to get his average back up.
Also leading MLB in BABIP at .315 which is a great measure of pure luck.
Is that even good? Milwaukee has a lot of team speed. Exit velocities and launch angles make a difference. So does taking walks and having speedy runners on base.
If Rowdy Tellez was leading MLB on BABIP I’d say that’s a heavy dollop of luck. But the Brewers are leading MLB on speed between bases – their strategy is founded on speed. So while I agree that super-high BABIP is going to regress, there’s reason here not to just look at league average and say it’s dumb luck.
Been holding both Baz and Christian Scott for a month in fantasy. Tis looking like a good week. Give me some good Degrom and Kershaw news now and I’d be really happy.
I reserved Cole, Scherzer and Baz at low cost coming out of my auction draft. All three look like they’ll pay off.
Getting healthy at the right time I hope. Cole def will be a huge boost at the minimum. He’s in an opt-out year so he is going to put some second half numbers up. I Have Jackson Jobe sitting in my NA spot hoping he starts making his way to the show too.
My fantasy has Legolas as the starter and Frodo and Darth Vader as relievers
Brewers have 5 more years of Turang/Ortiz, plus 6 better SS prospects ahead of Barrios (7 if you count Bitonti).
The two teams that always seem to make trades that go in their favor, honestly I stopped underestimating both of these organizations a long time ago. I can easily see both teams winning with this trade.
Feel like the brewers should have packaged that prospect with another to make a better splash. They are probably selling at the right time on the kid, but surely could have used him better. If the rays wanted him, I’d used that as my marketing pitch to every other organization as I packaged him for something better
Civale is the max he could buy. I know you said package but with a more premium purchase Barrios isn’t moving the needle enough. For some of these trades to come Barrios would be the 3rd or 4th best player in the package. And different teams would have different values on him.
I’m sure they’ve been in contact with every team about what they are looking for. On the face of it, a mid rotation arm for a lottery ticket is a huge win for a pitching needy team.
mid rotation is generous here. He’s back end.
I always want to know who you guys realistically expect a team like the Brewers to be able to, or want to move multiple pieces for.
Or, who is even available that any team could realistically acquire. Most of the really good pitchers are already on playoff contenders, and aren’t going anywhere.
Or they are on the IL. That is a huge list this year.
Do the Brewers have a strong enough rotation to go deep into the playoffs? No — but are they stronger than a week ago? Absolutely. A starting five of Peralta, Rea, Myers, Keuchel and Civale is better than using Wilson as a starter (he belongs in the pen) and anybody with a pulse as #5. And if the Brewers were able to snag Civale for a low-minors prospect, I don’t think they’re finished trading yet.
As to skeptics about the team’s offense, take a look at the OPS if you’re not a believer in batting average. Yelich, Contreras, Adames, Turang and now Chourio all carrying their weight, and the team also has several elite defenders. Right now STL looks like the only real threat in the division.
Only need 3 and a half starters in the playoffs. 4 and 5 are just for the regular season.
When will teams learn that trading with the Rays is a bad idea? BTW, I’m not a Rays fan.
Brewers more than comfortable with the Adames trade they made with the Rays.
Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.
Considering that Brewers GM Matt Arnold was in the rays org for alot of those trades, I don’t think he needs anyone to tell him how great the Rays are.
You trade with whoever gives you the best deal. Teams don’t care if the Rays have better development than they do. They strive to get there but until they do they are more than happy to trade with Tampa.
And get taken 9 times out of 10.
9 out 10 times? If they were that good wouldn’t they be winning their division instead of struggling to be above 500. Front offices get better every year. Hard to get taken. Most of Rays success is from their development and other teams lack of.
And probably have a WS rung by now.
My Pads are loving the Cronenworth trade, Major Window Pane. The Rays aren’t infallible… (nobody is.)
You weren’t in love with Cronenworth last year, were you?
I am one of the patient ones, and it was evident he was playing through pain last year. Long story short- I was, but nice to see him rebound well in ’24.
Civale has a 5.17 ERA as a Ray. Not sure this qualifies as a big trade. More like a salary dump.
He is worth much more than his salary and Milwaukee didn’t even look at his era.
YDGM
Right. Teams are not looking at ERA in 2024
In 2024 They are looking at if their elbow is still attached.
That’s funny. Thanks for the laugh.
His underlying metrics suggest that he will be around 4.1 ERA moving forward. Not a great pitcher but teams with pitching injuries would love to have that at the back of the rotation.
His underlying metrics are from when he performed at a 5.1 ERA. Please explain why those metrics didn’t indicate his actual results? Are you expecting those underlying metrics to remain the same if he does start pitching to better results?
SIERA and xFIP are more predictive of ERA going forward. The underlying stats should stay relatively the same but ERA should approach the underlying predictors.
His underlying metrics points to a 5.07 ERA.
His FIP is 4.69.
His results are his results and they are not good.
I don’t think you quite grasp what peripheral stats mean.
His results are his results and they are not good.
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The stats that most people are looking at are good for rotisserie on not much else. I’d use FIP over ERA, but I’d also take a look at velocity and his recent trends over FIP.
In this case, over his last 7 starts, he has a 32/11 K/W, which I like. Velo is consistent. CSW is consistent.
My guess is that he pitches like a #4/5, which is exactly what the Brewers need.
YankeesBleacherCreature9 hours ago
I don’t think you quite grasp what peripheral stats mean.
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TBH, none us do. I like to use K/W, CSW, Velo, etc. to augment FIP, but the guys making the trades are probably looking at peripherals none of ever heard of, or that none know how to weigh properly.
I do. I used to create my own formulas for a hobby and now it’s a significant amount of my income. I know for a fact at least one team uses an advanced formula. I would speculate a handful of teams have their own. Seems a handful of teams are still using era rbi batting average. I kid but there is some really awful front offices. No idea what the use. Teams in middle of pack seem to be using one of the known popular systems. All these teams could easily improve. Their are people who have better systems that just put them out there for free. And even the most private group would gladly welcome a mlb gm. For the most part teams are ran by dinosaurs who hate change. Look how long it took teams to catch on to extending young talent. Look how long the money ball book was out for teams to catch on. Many it took the movie to wake them up. 5 to 10 years ago there was still teams with lil or no analytics department, blew off the international market, didn’t or rarely shifted.
Ray’s Brewer’s aren’t one of these clueless hopeless teams. They don’t care what his era is. They don’t care what SIERA says his era is going to be because they ain’t looking at it. They are both more advanced than that. Obviously not at my level but very respectful.
In what way does any of his peripherals stats point to him having different results?
Which ones in particular?
Why do they point to different results?
Why does FIP not point to his actual performance?
The bottom line results is how well does he do at preventing runs and guess what stat measures that?
Btw, his barrel rate surrendered, exit velocity, and hh% are all up.
Those point to bad results. It also points to continuing bad results.
BBiL
“results is how well does he do at preventing runs and guess what stat measures that?”
Not ERA.
ERA measures a lot of things other people do. Like the fielders, the official scoree, the umpire.
You must know enough about baseball to understand that, right?
You still haven’t answered my question. Let’s start there.
Of course ERA measures how well a pitcher does at run prevention. Do you not understand what earned run average means?
BiL
Pitchers don’t allow runs. Teams allow runs.
Haven’t you played or watched baseball?
What do you think those other 8 players on the field are doing?
Seems like you are not willing to answer the basic question that is being asked by multiple people. What statistics in particular point to any result other than what Civale has had in Tampa?
If you can’t answer that, then you might want to take a step back and stop the insults Filihok before you get booted from the board on this handle and have to start a whole new account again. How many have you had now? 3? 4? .
Civale has always had marginal stuff and has to live on the corners. When he has command and control he can be really good. Obviously, he hasn’t the last couple of years.
For everyone knocking on Civale this deadline season doesn’t really have any ace caliber starters being available as in years past. There are no Verlander’s or Scherzer’s but plenty of Civale’s, Quantrill’s and Tyler Anderson’s
Jack Flahertys numbers are very much ace like this year.
Flaherty, has injury concerns otherwise a good pickup I guess.
If teams read your constant bragging of him, they’d be offering 3 top prospects and a controllable TOR-type pitcher for him.
Luckily, they don’t (and I doubt I’m the only one here who didn’t see it on a daily basis).
I’ll be sure to check with you if it’s okay to post next time Mr President. It’s a chat if you don’t like my post or opinion go chat with someone else.
My schedule is pretty full. You may have to wait a while for approval.
What if I join AL Bundys Fan Club? Will that bump me up in the queue as a VIP or something?
A prospect way down on the farm for a Haam and Egger pitcher. At least he is a starter.
Do you ever make it through a full day without using the term ham and egger less than a dozen times? Just curious.
No! Categories of Players: Bad: Ham and Egger minus. AKA as 4AAA; Ham and Egger(average ML); Ham and Egger plus; Good; Star; Superstar. Most teams have plenty of Ham and Eggers. Good teams have no one on Roaster below Ham and Egger.
I like them bacon and pancake pitchers myself
Hopefully the start of a painful teardown for the Rays. Even if they’re winning now, I know the real Rays. When they sneak into the WC and face an actual, dominating pitcher with a longer leash, they just flat out can’t score runs. You don’t get to feast on shabby relief pitching a as much in the playoffs. I’m rubbing my hands together in anticipation for more trades. Goodbye Siri and Arozarena and maybe Paredes and Littell and Eflin. Let the rebuild begin
More like reload or better yet just good front office management.
Reload with more former Guardians. Their roster, including Kevin Cash, is littered with them.
The real question is when will one of these mid markets break through and win the world series.. A minor trade with these mid majors helps both teams, but how much? Will this put them over the top, I don’t think so!
Mid market is generous for these teams. Tampa large media market but lack of interest puts them into small in my opinion. Milwaukee along with Cincinnati Pittsburgh Cleveland KC and Oakland I would call small. Might be forgetting some. Miami is close to small because of interest.
Mid I think Minnesota SD Arizona St Louis Det Bal Wash not going to name all teams although feels like I am coming close. Colorado Seattle maybe but they are pushing large but not as large as SF ATL. Chicago is close to being Mega probably is. Sox aren’t because of popularity. NY LA BOS mega. Because of popularity Yankees Dodgers are ultra mega.
Mid market could win and should much more often than small. 180 to 230 million payroll goes further than 120 130m. Cleveland Tampa gave it a good run. KC is really only one to do it. Miami but that was ancient different times. Even KC is dated. Not many teams spent over 200 million 10 years ago. Now pretty much every large and mega market does. Both Texas teams I would put as large. Basically if you can spend 200m you are large. SD is a small city but only a 1 sport city so they are mid but with a owner trying to win they went large. See what happens in future. I think they are closer to mid. Sort of on border.
Hard really hard for small market to win it all but some small markets have some great young talent right now so there’s a chance. I feel like one will do it. Mid as well. Arizona got there just last year. Baltimore looks as good as anyone.
No thanks I don’t want anymore former Guardians
Hopefully the start of a painful teardown for the Rays.
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Don’t make too much of it. This is simply a response to Baz returning. Civale’s value goes down as soon as Baz pushes him to the BP.
They could be right about more trades coming. Sellers market I would be disappointed in the Rays and think less of their front office if they didn’t at least trade guys who are going to be free agents after 2025. It’s not a teardown though. Just business as usual for Rays. They can replace all those guys and still be just as good at least next year. Doubt they trade them all. But for the right offer they will trade anyone. And if not in July then this winter. Rays don’t let many players leave in free agency with them getting nothing in return.
Yeah but I’m kinda tired of ‘business as usual’ considering that routine hasn’t really materialized much. We win in the regular season and are competitive. I’m thankful to be able to say that every season. But the hammer drops every postseason when their main guys go cold and no one plays the hero , (like Arozarena a few years ago)
Yes and Civale was gonna be traded regardless of a teardown or not… But I just don’t believe this team can break through in the postseason. Too temperamental and reliant on hot streaks and bad opposing relief pitchers. Even after Baz enters the rotation, it doesn’t help the offensive issues.
We’re not going to compete with those big market teams. Get with your guy’s and find new players.
Ray’s aren’t supposed to win. No one wants to see the Ray’s win the world series. It’s a unfair system! They got there before. My favorite teams are Rays Pirates. Love how they operate. You get a Snell Glasnow Morton. A Liriano Cole Burnett. Or how about present times a Skenes Jones Keller? You got a shot. Now you can’t have a Soto Judge or Ohtani Freeman Betts. Best you can do is have mostly good players. Really would help if you had a mvp, just one. Then maybe a all star or 2? Can’t buy them but you can get a rental maybe? 2 good players instead of 1 star? Gotta get hot at right time. Nail your player development. And get some luck. Only KC has done it in not ancient times and it was much easier back then. It’s not easy with 300 million dollars. 100? Brutal. The mega teams used to be pretty dumb. They are a lot smarter now. Ray’s are doing about the best they can do. They give me a run for my $. Think it’s as good as it gets for you.
You are essentially right. Even if these small teams produce a star, the ability to sign or extend then is rare. Then the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, or Red Sox buy them all up to compete with each other. I’ll throw San Fran/Houston in there as well.
Extend them early like Franco!
That’s the key. Can’t compete in free agency but a sane person will take less now. Avoid Boras guys. Not impossible but it’s a red flag. It’s good to have a good relationship with agents and you can’t have one with that hole.
Win win trade. Seems to be a fair trade. Tampa can’t lose as they can easily replace Civale in off-season. Got a kid who is a really safe bet to stick as ss. Glove over bat. Power and approach aren’t good and don’t project to be. Could hit enough that with his speed and certainly glove could be a everyday ss. A nice return for a backend starter.
Milwaukee got a solid back end starter a month early without giving up anything fantastic. If you can trade only 1 prospect and that prospect doesn’t walk and hit for power or throw a baseball from the mound you are usually pleased. Civale gives up a ton of hrs. But he will give Milwaukee a good chance to win most outings. I wouldn’t want him starting playoff games but he can get you there. I wouldn’t be excited about him but he is better than you think if you are just looking at his era. Great #5 and a passable #4. It’s so hard to get pitching this early so well done Milwaukee.
I haven’t seen it mentioned, but this also opens up a 40-man roster slot for Tampa Bay who will need one of those for Jeffrey Springs and potentially Jacob Waguespack soon, and Drew Rasmussen later. Not worth a ton, but having DFA’d Chris Devenski recently the climb up the ladder gets harder and harder to make decisions.
Good addition. I like Tobias Myers but his success isn’t sustainable. Look at his 2022 stats sometime for a good laugh.
Not sure Myers 2022 stats are relevant. Look at Corbin Burnes 2019 vs 2021, without claiming that Myers is another Burnes.
Another crafty move for the smallest market team in the NL central.
like this trade for the brewers gives them a soiled rotation arm with another year of control for a SS prospect that has potential but little power and the brewers farm system is very healthy in good young SS prospects
This is why Milwaukee stays on top. They do what they have to to stay there, unlike the team chasing them.
Brewers and Ray are two teams Billy Beane would say philosophy only works in the regular season.
Looks like trading season is upon us!!!
From the Rays fans’ perspective, it’s a medium power 1B Kyle Manzardo for speedy middle IF Gregory Barrios.
UPDATE: Brewers up 7 games over Saint Louis!
There should be no comma before the word too. Come on, Adams. It’s not the 60s anymore.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but did the Brewers get Civale for next to nothing? Not saying Civale has been pitching particularly well.
His last 7 starts have been much better
I guess my point is we’ve been reading quotes from ” a top executive” that the asking price for SP is “astronomical.” And then we get this.
Civale is OK, his last 7 starts aren’t amazing. His last 5 aren’t even that exciting: 25ip 12ER, 24k/9bb.
@dlaurenzi Be honest. Are you a diehard Civale or Brewer fan and dug deep to cherry pick that stat? Or seen Steve Phillips on mlb network? Spoiler alert it’s 3.82 or something.
Check above. The mlbtr community is blessed to have the world’s greatest baseball mind as a member. They usually give the best expert analysis anywhere on trades. *They even give grades for some of our simpler minded members so they too can benefit from the knowledge.
*Spoiler alert*
It’s a fair win win trade according to the expert.
CO, Cleveland received a top 100 prospect for Civale. I don’t consider that next to nothing.
Manzardo is the #35 overall prospect in baseball right now.
Huh? Read again, I said Brewers. Rays traded him to Milwaukee not Cleveland.
Why would the Brewers trade for a guy that has been regressing in ERA, FIP, exit velocity, HH%, barrel rate, chase rate, GB rate, HR%, SO%, and BB% over the last 3 seasons?
Everything points to him not improving in any appreciable way and his 5.07 ERA, 4.69 FIP, and 77 ERA+ this season are all well below MLB average. Maybe if he was an innings eater it would be worth picking him up to be their #5, but he hasn’t gotten past the 6th inning in 17 starts this season.
I just don’t understand the trade. Guess they didn’t give up much. Barrios is a 20 year old slick fielding SS in A+ ball that doesn’t have anything in the way of power so he is destined for a utility player role if he makes it to the show.
They traded for a guy similar to guys they always trade for. Ones that don’t cost a lot (salary or trade capital), they think they can fix in their lab/with better coaching, and have some control beyond the current season.
MKE has a history of not pushing their starters past 5-sometimes 6-innings. And, as has been mentioned a few times, they need arms that aren’t on the shelf.
My understanding on who they gave up..he’s like sixth in the pecking order of SS in the Brewers system. Sure, he could leapfrog everyone and become a perennial all star and mvp candidate, but the odds don’t favor it.
We can see the best pitcher not in the mlb if we watch a stream of Ryu playing in the Korean league