8:46pm: Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that five teams have shown some amount of interest in Snell.
10:22 am: The Giants have hovered around the National League Wild Card race for most of the year but slipped back recently, which could lead to them deciding to sell prior to Tuesday’s trade deadline. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic took a look at some possible trade candidates, reporting that left-hander Blake Snell is drawing significant trade interest. Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic listed Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores as bats that are available around the league. Baggarly also mentions right-hander Alex Cobb and lefty Taylor Rogers as candidates to be moved in the coming days.
San Francisco is currently 49-55, which only puts them 5.5 games back of the nearest playoff spot, but they would have to pull away from the Cubs and then pass the Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Padres in order to get into postseason position. They’re not totally buried but the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just an 11.5% shot of getting in while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic at 5.6%. With that kind of Hail Mary window, it’s logical that the Giants would look into shifting their priorities to optimizing next year’s team, which would mean making some players available now.
It’s unsurprising that Snell would draw significant trade interest, though his trade candidacy would have complications. He’s one of the top pitchers in baseball when at his best, which is why he has two Cy Young awards on his mantel. That includes getting last year’s National League trophy when he posted a 2.25 earned run average over 32 starts with the Padres.
But 2024 has been far less smooth. Despite his excellent 2023 campaign, he lingered in free agency for a long time and didn’t sign with the Giants until the middle of March. After a quick ramp-up, he made three rough starts before landing on the injured list with a left adductor strain. He returned from the IL and had three more bad outings before returning to the IL in early June with a left groin strain. At that time, he had an ERA of 9.51 in those six starts.
He has since returned and been in much better form. He shut out the Blue Jays and then the Twins before allowing two earned runs against the Dodgers. Those three better starts have reduced his ERA to 5.83 for the year.
Despite the inconsistent results this year, some clubs would surely be willing to bank on his track record and recent return to form. However, his contract adds another layer of complication. He signed a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants that allows him to opt-out at season’s end.
Trading players with such provisions is usually a tricky proposition, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a piece for Front Office subscribers and it’s a situation that Giant fans are likely familiar with from the Carlos Rodón saga from a few years ago. Despite having a dominant season for a middling Giants club, Rodón wasn’t moved at the deadline as he had an upcoming opt-out that seemed to ward off potential buyers.
Players in such situations are mostly downside for the acquiring club. If the player performs well, they will leave, making them a rental in a best-case scenario. If they perform poorly or get hurt, they will stick around and keep their notable salary on the books. Surrendering notable prospects for such an arrangement is often an unattractive proposition and the selling club might not want to give up a star player for an uninspiring return.
Snell’s contract consists of a $15MM salary this year and a $17MM signing bonus that Baggarly notes is not transferable to a trade partner. There’s a $30MM player option for 2025 that Snell could trigger if he finishes the season poorly or is injured, but he could also opt-out if he finishes strong. Those complications might soften the offers but demand for pitching is expected to outstrip supply, especially in terms of front-of-the-rotation type arms, so perhaps the Giants will get some intriguing calls.
It makes sense that the Giants would listen to offers to see if they could get that contract off their books while also recouping some younger talent. Even without Snell, next year’s rotation could consist of Logan Webb, Kyle Harrison, Robbie Ray and Jordan Hicks, with Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn perhaps back in the mix if their health allows. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt has reached Triple-A while the club also has Mason Black, Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and Kai-Wei Teng on the 40-man roster.
Sticking with the rotation, Cobb is a more straightforward trade candidate in the sense that he’s an impending free agent. Even though he underwent hip surgery in October, the Giants picked up his $10MM option for this year in the hopes that he wouldn’t miss that much time. Unfortunately, his return has been slowed by some elbow and shoulder issues and still hasn’t pitched in the majors this season.
He has been rehabbing of late and tossed five shutout innings at the Triple-A level on Saturday. Baggarly notes that he could be reinstated and pitch for the Giants on Sunday, which would essentially be a pre-deadline showcase for interested clubs. The injury issues from this year will likely give clubs some hesitation but Cobb is an established veteran with a 3.85 ERA over 230 career starts. As recently as last year, he was able to toss 151 1/3 innings with a 3.87 ERA.
As for the bats, Rosenthal mentioned Flores as a trade candidate on Wednesday but the Giants put him on the IL the next day due to right knee tendonitis. Players on the IL can still be traded but he is also having a down season, hitting .206/.277/.318 for a wRC+ of 71. He’s making $6.5MM this year and then has a dual player/team option for 2025. He first has to decide on a $3.5MM player option and then, if he declines, the team would have an $8.5MM option available. Given his down season, he might be inclined to pick up his end of the deal rather than going to free agency.
Conforto is a straightforward trade candidate since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a two-year, $36MM deal going into 2023 and then declined to opt out after hitting a league-average .239/.334/.384 last year. He started out well this year but has tapered off. He was hitting .280/.331/.490 when he landed on the IL on May 12 due to a right hamstring strain. Since coming off the IL in early June, he’s hitting .165/.262/.331.
Yastrzemski can be retained via arbitration through next year, but there’s logic in considering trades now. He’ll turn 34 next month and is making $7.9MM, meaning he could be looking for an eight-figure salary in arbitration next year. He’s been a consistently solid player during his career on both sides of the ball. He has hit .241/.326/.458 for a wRC+ of 114 while racking up 35 Defensive Runs Saved and seven Outs Above Average. Per FanGraphs, he’s been worth at least 1.6 wins above replacement in every previous season of his career and is currently at 1.3 fWAR this year.
Even without Conforto and Yastrzemski, the Giants could go into next year with an outfield mix consisting of Jung Hoo Lee, Heliot Ramos and Luis Matos with guys like Derek Hill, Tyler Fitzgerald and Wade Meckler also in the mix.
As for Rogers, he’s in the second season of a three-year, $33MM deal he signed with the Giants. He has continued to pitch well and the Giants could keep him for next year, but moving now might also make sense. He has a 2.27 ERA this year but that’s largely propped up by an unsustainable 84.1% strand rate. His 25.6% strikeout rate is his worst since 2017 and he’ll be turning 34 this winter.
Teams generally sign free agents looking for most production in the beginning of the deal, with the later years a pill they swallow as the price of doing business. If there’s a way for them to wriggle out of the last season of the Rogers pact, they might consider taking it. Such a move could potentially free up some cash, bring back some young talent or both. It would create a hole in next year’s bullpen but relievers are often viewed as volatile and fairly replaceable.
All together, the Giants make for an interesting late entry into a market that has been perceived to have a lack of sellers. As laid out by Baggarly, the club could try to duck under the competitive balance tax in the days to come but it would be difficult to do. RosterResource estimates they are currently just above $253MM, more than $16MM above the $237MM base threshold. They would effectively have to find takers for all the money owed to Snell, Rogers, Conforto, Yastrzemski and Cobb to dip under and therefore might be focused on prospect capital between now and the July 30 deadline.
You must be so proud.
I ran into Layne Staley in a smoke shop on ‘the Ave’ in Seattle’s University District circa ’97 or ’98. Extremely nice guy. Seemed very short in person.
@CBeisbol: Looks like you aka filihok started another MLBTR account, ay?
Snell will end up as an Astro to solidify Houston’s rotation for the post season. Their starting pitching has been shaky all year. Snell is a perfect fit for them
No chance of that happening. The Astros aren’t in a position to eat any of that bad contract, and they aren’t farm rich with prospects either to sway SF into eating most of the money. The only chance is if SF takes Montero and his contract back, and they also eat some money owed to Snell.
Unfortunately, SF is not in a position to make high demands for him given how he’s pitched this season.
@Scrap Iron: Thanks for sharing your laughable take!
Instead of just mockery, could you give us your take sir??
I really don’t understand how Snell gets moved. I can understand being shaky out of the gate signing late but when the reason you didnt get the long term deal you seeked is because you’re so off and on from year to year and you haven’t been lights out in the first year of an expensive aav two year deal that includes a player opt out after the end of the season to me that’s insanely risky. If he’s lights out and opts out he was easily worth the money. He’d opt out but worth it rentals are a very common at the deadline. But the added risk of that option are huge. The same risks of the offseason they kept team away i
Same fears are still very much there still
If Snell is terrible down the stretch it’s still almost a certainty that he opts out. He will get much more than $30 million guaranteed on a longer-term deal, even if that deal is only at $20 million AAV.
Farhan’s most significant deadline deals each year during his tenure:
2019: Tristan Beck for Mark Melancon
2020: Nothing
2021: Kris Bryant rental
2022: JD Davis for Darin Ruf
2023: AJ Pollock for Cash Considerations
Does anyone really think he’s gonna change his ways in year 6? With his job supposedly on the line? Not a chance the Giants sell.
Is his job really on the line when he signed an extension 9 months ago?
Pavlovic said yesterday there are people in this org that need Giants to make the playoffs…Who could he be talking about other than Farhan?
@MadBum- Players whose jobs are on the line. Pavlovich also isn’t the one making decisions within the org.
These guys must be getting paid by the word now, nobody cares that much about Blake Smells. NOBODY! Ahahaha!
You’re not paying attention.
I think it’s more wishful thinking/name floating on the Giants part that anyone would want him; as most of the potential acquiring teams would be at luxury tax penalty levels and he’d cost contract + taxation, which was the main reason none of those teams signed him as a FA.
Baseball-wise he’s by far the best pitcher available. Look at his last few starts compared to Crochet who’s maxing out. Second half Snell is on the rise and could carry a team in October. I think there will be plenty of interest, but Zaidi won’t pull the trigger. Exact same thing happened in 2022 with Carlos Rodon.
I think you’re pinning a whole lot of hope on three games. Lots of pitchers have a good three game streak. I’m not saying it means nothing but this is definitely a small sample size.
CBb.
It’s a larger small sample but then, I’m not arguing that Snell is a terrible pitcher based on it. I’m only arguing that you shouldn’t base expectations on three games. Don’t you think that makes since?
SalaryCapMyth, That small sample of 3 games are more in line with his career stats than his early season performance. Any interested teams will look at those 3 games along with the larger body of work. If Snell is traded, a lot of people will be shocked at the return.
Rodon was a completely different situation – no one showed interest in him because he was coming off of injury season and had the opt out so teams didn’t want the risk that he injures himself at the end of the season and opts in – essentially that happened after he signed the contract instead of before the end of the year
@bob I call total BS that no one showed interest in Rodon. Reds acquired Steer and CES from Twins for Tyler Mahle at the 2022 deadline. Go ahead and compare Mahle’s numbers to Rodon’s. Rodon was on the exact same contract Snell has (1+1 opt out). Why would teams have cared about Rodon’s injury history with such minimal risk? He should’ve been dealt in the same way Bumgarner should’ve been dealt in 2019 and Snell should be in 2024. Not gonna happen because Farhan is inept.
it was reported by many that he was shopped and no one would touch him – steer was part of a bigger deal and the risk was built into the package – totally different situation
No, you’re simply wrong. Just because Farhan said no one wanted Rodon doesn’t mean it’s true. The fact that other teams traded much worse pitchers for prospects proves that point.
@MadBum14: Of course Rodon had superior numbers to Mahle. The difference is that Mahle wasn’t getting paid big bucks and didn’t have an expensive option year hanging in the balance.
Try again.
@spliff Everyone on planet earth knew Rodon was opting out. Get real… he was having a monster year. Giants could’ve afforded to pay the remaining ~10 million a la 2023 Mets with Scherzer and Verlander if they wanted too also. Look how the Mets were able to pivot and revamp their depleted farm. Stop excusing Zaidi’s inability to make any sort of bold move. It’s his job and he’s unequivocally failed.
@MadBum14: No they didn’t, as no one can predict when a player will get injured. Rodon had all sorts of injury issues over the years and that’s what teams were hesitant about: the potential of getting stuck with paying full price for a lost ’23 season. Without the option year, the Giants would have been able to get a nice haul for him.
Not to mention that there was way more than “~10 million” left on his contract.
@spliff Once again, you’re simply wrong. 22 million dollar contract with 2 months left in the season is actually less than 10 million. Pretty much a non-factor for most contending teams. Again, Giants had massive payroll flexibility and could’ve agreed to pay some or even all of it. Yankees were linked to him and they ended up giving him 7 years…But you think they were worried about 1 year at 22 million? GTFO that makes no sense.
@MadBum14: I was quite obviously referring to the $22MM option. Obviously, teams (including the Yankees) were concerned about Rodon getting injured and being on the hook for all of that or he would have been moved.
I’m terribly sorry that you’re having so much difficulty grasping this.
Gyahaha, Giants fans fighting it out in the comments section is more fun than when San Francisco won 3 championships in 5 years back in the 2010s and not one soul watched or cared—because the Giants will never be popular!
Baseball will need 15 trillion Cialis, 8 trillion beta blockers and 5 trillion blood thinners as well as a pacemaker just to survive the fallout should a Giants World Series ever happen again- worst thing to happen to baseball in decades!
Please continue to trade away all talent and stay out of the playoffs!! Bad for business! Gyahaha!!
Gyahaha go on and believe the attendance numbers.
Baseball is dying. The Giants won’t save it.
Baseball is dying.
========================
Yup, I remember first hearing that in the ’80s when soccer overtook us.
Oh wait….
They were right. Soccer appeals to younger fans. The average age of a baseball fan is AARP qualified.
Funny you should mention the 1980s. That was the last time the World Series was something the average American followed.
@spliff I’m done wasting time arguing with someone with an IQ of 80. Yankees weren’t willing to risk paying a 1 year $22 million contract but had no issue paying the same man 6 years $162 million?
I’m terribly sorry that you’re having so much difficulty grasping this.
@MadBum14: Yankees certainly weren’t willing to both take that financial risk and give up significant talent for Rodon.
Funny you try to take a dig at my intelligence when you’re too angry with Zaidi to even think straight. Best of luck working through that.
@spliff
*ZDS* ??
So then you agree. We shouldn’t base anything on 3 games and I’m certainly not basing anything on 6 games.
@Matrac. I don’t know how much teams value him to begin with. The contract he was looking for wasn’t so crazy for a Cy Young winner and yet he didn’t get it. Everyone loves to come down on Boras as being unrealistic but he went for what he did because he has a history of getting it, especially for a pitcher with Snell’s trophy case.
I won’t be surprised by a healthy return for Snell because as I keep saying…I am not basing his value on 3 games…or 6 games.
It would be on-brand for Farhan to make the wrong decision when it comes to the best interest of the organization. A non-baseball guy with no baseball background until he picked up Moneyball at his Ivy League school and comes from the Oakland way. This is the result, and it’s long overdue for a change in San Fran. They should be selling off some parts and focusing on next year.
If a POBO is a non baseball guy, there aren’t too many baseball guys around.
English this time.
Sure. When it comes to acquiring knowledge, intelligent people can come in and overtake the longer term dumb people very quickly. The dumb people just don’t realise that can happen. It’s why they are dumb.
Is that clearer ?
Or, Farhan never cared for baseball until about 20’ish years ago. Relying heavily on data from fellow educated non-baseball people and listening little to the baseball folks result in mediocrity. Ask the mid-2000s Blue Jays how that went, or the Dodgers during the Paul DePodesta era. This is the new era of baseball and it’s not working.
It’s not about when you start. That’s a dumb person take.
Listening little to baseball folks ? Who are you referring too ? You, the fan ?
The desperate dumb fan take comes from you, floppert. It’s not about when you start? Are you serious? Farhan comes from a small town where nobody heard of baseball. You’d want your decision maker to have some semblance of a baseball background. He didn’t even play rec ball.
But, you support his decision making! Smartest guy in the room doesn’t need other baseball men who didn’t graduate from an Ivy League school telling him what to do. He’s not listening to “fans”, just non-baseball people, graduates from MIT and Harvard and Princeton and Columbia….
Are you still having trouble understanding the new hierarchy of baseball executives or would you like it translated slower?
I think that because “his job is on the line,” he’d better show some cojones or find himself unemployed come next season—contract be damned. Giant fans are fed up.
What matters is if the owners are fed up.
Fans don’t get to make decisions. If they did, Zaidi would never have gotten an extension.
Some team could get a steal here. Snell could turn it around any moment, or at least continue his good season/bad season streak and be Cy young next year.
I think Snell is more of a slow starter than anything. I agree overall, but the significant opt-out and remaining 2024 salary will give teams pause.
I think there’s some truth to that slow start theory.
baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=snell…
Just looking over his entire career, a quick look at 1st and 2nd half splits show his era drop about 1.5 points. Wow.
The Giants can always pay a portion of next years salary depending on their/acquiring teams needs. If Snell was a free agent this upcoming offseason some team would still give him $15-20 mil, see Giolito
Snell has turned a corner based on his last three starts. The Giants aren’t allowed to pick up a portion of Snell’s ’25 salary if he opts in. They can only if it’s guaranteed. I don’t think Giants will get much for him besides two lottery tickets.
@ohyeahdam: Hilarious that you’re putting a washed up Giolito in the same category as the reigning NL Cy Young winner
Are you sure bleacher creature? The Rockies are still paying Arenado after he opted in
Right? At least Gio ate innings before his injury
I stand corrected.
Snell has turned a corner based on his last three starts.
========================
Maybe, but he still has only a 15/5 K/W in 18 IPs. That’s good, but not $32M good. Even as a RS fan, that’s a very expensive contract.
Depends on how badly a team wants to win and buys that he’s in mid-season form.
Trade him for anything. Those opt outs blow
That’s just wrong. There is zero upside for a team acquiring a player with an opt out. If he gets hurt they are stuck with that players in this case for 30m next year. If he pitches well he opts out which is prob best case scenario for a team acquiring him.
There is only downside…zero upside to acquiring a player with an opt out.
Yep^
CBeisbol- I noticed you didn’t comment about the opt out. If he was a free agent with no opt out after the year a team would still be hoping he has a good last two months. The problem with the opt out is if he doesn’t or he gets hurt.
Zero is zero benefit to this opt out. It’s reduces his trade market to teams that would be willing to take that risk and can afford the 30m next year. This opt out will reduce his trade value unless the giants are willing to cover a portion of next years deal if he doesn’t opt out.
Keep being wrong all you want.
I’m sure it’s possible for salary retention to be conditional on a player foregoing the opt out. So an acquiring team might have to make an early valuation on what they’d be willing to spend on a Snell bounce back season. If that’s in the $20m range, then the trade could include the conditional retention of $10m if he stays put next year. This could fit a team that just wants to spend money at the deadline rather than giving up prospects. Take his remaining money this year and commit to whatever salary you feel comfortable gambling on next year’s bounce back. The Giants still get out of a lot of money here and that’s pretty much the best value another team can offer them.
Of course there is value to the team or they wouldn’t do it.
The value for the player is that if they bet on themselves they might get more money down the road so they sacrifice dollars or years or both for that opt out.
The value for the team is paying the player less money or giving them a shorter contract NOW.
The Giants got both of those benefits with Snell.
Lmao
Nobody in their right mind wants this head case. This guys has more baggage than a diva on a 6 week European vacation. Oh yea, and he sucks. Hard pass! Ahahaha!
@NYCityRiddler: Serious question: are you twelve years old or are you simply mentally stunted and desperate for attention?
Hey tone boy, yea I’m mentally stunted from reading comments from maroons like you. Next! Ahahaha!
@NYCityRiddler: Ahh….how adorable. At least you can entertain yourself, as no one else is entertained by your mindless drivel.
Man, I should’ve never started up w/you, you’re good. Ahahaha!
Opt outs are good. If they opt out it means they played well. Most big contracts you don’t want the later years anyway
What are the packages being offered?
It’s got to be SF throwing in a decent prospect and taking back some nobody. I see no reason any team takes Snell and the 100% chance he and Boras opts in the 30m 2025 deal for this walking disaster.
Snell, since he signed this past spring has been the perfect description of negative value. Not even Boras is looney enough to decline the player option, do well or not for final 2m, he’s butchered the 1st 4m so bad.
Not having a spring training hurt Snell more than anything. The walking disaster is purely on Boras
johnsilver, You’re clearly off the mark on that ask. As the article said, they were reasons for Snell’s poor start; the problematic free-agency that cost him any spring training, and the IL stints.
Teams in need of pitching aren’t taking the simplistic approach of looking at the 5.83 ERA this season. They’ll look at his track record. and his last 3 GS; 2 runs on 6 hits in 18 IP, striking out 15.
No team is going ask for Snell, and a decent prospect, for a nobody, because they know the Giants will simply hang up. Some teams might see Snell as the piece to bring them a WS title.
there is no point in moving him then – that would just be stupid. the only reason to move a guy on the roster is to get prospect capital back otherwise it is just money and the giants are not a small market team – why do they care about saving a prorated portion of 30mm?
Easy. SF Wants out of the 30m 2025 player option and almost always? boras has his guys decline anyway, but boras held so many of his clients out so late this year, with most having bad years (like Snell) who waited until late in ST to sign, it’s going to be nearly impossible for a guy like Snell, even best of times isn’t consistent from year to year to find 1/3 of that figure. Just what does he do?
Answer is take the guaranteed 30m for a year and imagine SF would prefer to spend it more wisely next year while they gear up and hopefully are much better by then. Look at it logically instead of by what want for a player/agent and how boras really messed up performance wise many of his clients instead of trying to wring out every last penny he could get.
Who did he try this with and got little, or 1 yr deals? Snell, Montgotmery, Paxton, Bellinger. Who did I leave out? Think was more he ended up with nothing more than 1yr and his always 1yr player option.
Why so many love this agent and the shiny 1-2 signs he polishes up with a big sign, then the rest who are like the ones just listed and get damaged will never understand. modern times I guess and a typical “me 1st” lawyer.
Two things, One, the Giants are one of the wealthiest teams in MLB and do not ‘need’ to get out of any contract. They own their stadium of which the debt service was paid off more than a decade ago. Plus they have real estate deals on the land surrounding the stadium that they control. They’re basically printing money.
The other thing is, Boras, and his less than great deals he got for some of his clients, doesn’t cancel out what he’s done for many more. Here’s a list of his clients, and you’ll see that many got great deals,
Pete Alonso, 1B, NYM
José Altuve, 2B, HOU
Francisco Álvarez, C, NYM
Elvis Andrus, SS, FA
Randy Arozarena, OF, SEA
Josh Bell, 1B, MIA
Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, CHC
Xander Bogaerts, SS, SD
Alec Bohm, 3B, PHI
Alex Bregman, 3B, HOU
Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, COL
Corbin Burnes, SP, BAL
Nick Castellanos, RF/DH, PHI
Dylan Cease, SP, SD
Matt Chapman, 3B, SF
Gerrit Cole, SP, NYY
Michael Conforto, RF, SF
Carlos Correa, SS, MIN
Zac Gallen, SP, ARI
Joey Gallo, OF, WSH
MacKenzie Gore, SP, WSH
Bryce Harper, 1B/RF, PHI
Gunnar Henderson, SS/3B, BAL
Rhys Hoskins, 1B, MIL
Jonathan India, 2B, CIN
Yusei Kikuchi, SP, TOR
Michael Kopech, RP, CWS
Shea Langeliers, C, OAK
Jung-hoo Lee, CF, SF
Royce Lewis, SS, MIN
Sean Manaea, SP, NYM
J. D. Martinez, DH, NYM
Lance McCullers Jr., SP, HOU
MJ Melendez, C/OF, KC
Frankie Montas, SP, CIN
Mike Moustakas, 3B, FA
Brandon Nimmo, CF, NYM
Tyler O’Neill, LF, BOS
Jurickson Profar, OF, SD
Cal Raleigh, C, SEA
Anthony Rendon, 3B, LAA
Luis Robert Jr., OF, CWS
Carlos Rodón, SP, NYY
Hyun-jin Ryu, SP, Hanwha Eagles
Max Scherzer, SP, TEX
Corey Seager, SS, TEX
Marcus Semien, 2B, TEX
Blake Snell, SP, SF
Juan Soto, RF, NYY
Bryson Stott, SS, PHI
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, DET
Miguel Vargas, IF, LAD
Masataka Yoshida, OF, BOS
You think he could command that list of clientele of he was as feckless as you seem to think? Dislike Boras all you want, but a lot of those guys got great, life-changing deals
SF doesn’t care about the 30mm option – in all honesty IF the option year were to happen the giants would be happy to have it since it means you go into 2025 with a rotation of webb, snell, harrison, birdsong and probably a rested hicks to start the year with no changes. 30mm is going to be nothing to them – all the guaranteed contracts will be soler, snell, hicks, webb and if chapman opts in chapman – that is nothing for one of the wealthiest teams in baseball
@johnsilver: Way to out yourself as completely clueless
How about picking up another bat and making a run Farhan, or are the owners too cheap
Yes. Call the orioles
But I don’t think it’s ownership that’s holding Zaidi back, I think it’s Zaidi who is holding Zaidi back.
Has a player ever been traded with an opt-out that wasn’t a slam dunk exercise decision? So much risk for an acquiring club that it’d have to amount to a salary dump.
If he has a good Aug and Sept, I bet he’s opting out to secure a longer deal for less AAV.
Snell is worth a lot of $$$ so I’d dump his salary even for sticks & stones
They do not play for the same team. Sticks for the Guardians and Stone for the Dodgers. 🙂
Woah there if there was a 3 team snell trade the giants would be real lucky to get a young starter like stone
I guess snell isnt even worth sticks and stones hahaha
Snell is consistently inconsistent. Risk and reward variance is too wide at his cost. If he were $20-25M I could see taking the risk, even with a player option, but the risk is such so extreme that he could also be the reason you miss the playoffs, despite two trophies on his mantle.
I’d do, like, Mac Horvath, Juan Nunez, and Frederic Bencosme for Snell and Cobb, with the Orioles assuming all salary.
This team is hard to watch/listen to. They stuck out 9 times with runners in scoring position but somehow managed to tie it up late only to have the recently DFA’d Nick Ahmed (!) homer then Shohei homer on next pitch.
16 strikeouts by Giants batters in a brutal loss .
Lol Nick Ahmed! What a burn.
Yaz looking for an eight figure salary? Sheer lunacy. Snell was a terrible contract that only the Giain’ts were willing to bite on and Chapman too. Borazz conned them
.230 batting average at that salary? Ok?
Can’t tell what’s more telling – you using BA as a metric or you not understanding how the arbitration system works.
Chapman too.
==================
Chapman is a great contract, but do continue.
Yaz is a consistently above average player, and yeah, that’s what those make.
the really annoying part of that was that ahmed had 1 HR all year for the giants and in the second game against them hits a homer that ends up being the deciding run
Wait, what ?
I thought everyone said Snell would start the all star game, and win the seasons MVP And CY young award
But his stats don’t look to good to me personally
If you’re the giants, you got to pull the trigger on whatever deal comes across your desk. He’s been brutal this years despite his couple of decent recent starts and his contract is a trap.
bravesfan, He had no ST. Hit the IL twice. In his last 3 starts, including games against the Twins and Dodgers, he pitched 18 innings, and allowed only 2 runs on 5 hits, striking out 15.
That is a small sample, but that is clearly more in line with his career stats than what he did early. If you’re a team where a solid SP could mean the difference in getting to the PS, or even winning a title, you have to be interested in Snell.
Dealing for 2025, SFG should make a run at Luis Robert using all the prospects they’ve been stockpiling. How about Robert for Harrison and Luciano?
The question on that is are the Giants ready to give up on Luciano? If so then you may have something there
Both Luciano and Harrison have huge upside but to get Robert you have to give up value. Giants are filthy with middle infielders and SP prospects and desperately need another RH power guy in the OF.
heinie manush, Huge upside is value. Huge upside is what the WSox are looking for. I don’t think they want established stars since they aren’t a year or two away from being competitive. Maybe Harrison and Luciano are deemed an insufficient return by the WSox for Robert, but those are the types of players they will want.
The Giants should ABSOLUTELY make a run at Luis Robert and Luciano should be part of the package, but Harrison is going nowhere.
I know the Giants don’t do in division trades unless it is a minor league deal, but being a D’Backs fan would like to see GM Hazen kick the tires on getting Wilmer Flores as a backup at 1st and 3rd and solid bat off the bench.
You can have him but he’s hurt.
MLB needs to ban opt-outs in contracts. They are never mutually beneficial and ultimately it is the fan base which is “harmed” by them. Look no further than the debacle in Detroit with Javy Baez where he opted in after becoming so bad that he wouldn’t even find another MLB team to take him, and he and the team got stuck with 4 years, $96m on the opt in. Badly damaged the franchise. GM’s can’t be trusted, they come and go so frequently, the opt out is the worst contract provision ever offered to a player, giving them way too much leverage and they should be banned.
What don’t I understand?
Explain to me what I don’t understand please.
Luke, they are always mutually beneficial. the player gives up something of value to get something they deem as valuable in the opt out. Either money or more years.
Not sure if his remaining 2024 salary would fit below the CBT line for San Diego or if the Giants would trade him in division but I’m sure he’d love to go back to San Diego. Finish 2024 on a prorated salary and if he wants to build up his FA value do it in 2025 with Rueben Niebla pulling the strings.
The Padres have ZERO left handed starters.
I’d love a reunion, but Snell would push Padres back over the luxury tax in 2024 and eat into their ability to sign free agents (Kim, Profar) and extend Merrill.
Padres don’t care about CBT next year, just this one, so if he doesn’t opt out of his option year then Padres are on hook for one year of Snell. Not a bad thing. Would take the Giants eating just $2 million of the $10.2 million he is owed to make it work this season.
That would leave them with no room for bullpen reinforcements. I like Snell and wouldn’t mind him being back on the right deal. If Darvish were to indicate to the team he’d remain on the restricted list the rest of the year, I think it’d be a bit more palatable financially. I can see the need for TOR upside acquisitions with King and Waldron blowing past their previous inning highs.. a lefty would be nice too.
I agree. I believe Farhan will eat most or all of Snell’s contract in order to get a decent prospect, read back of top 100, in return.
CBT is so convoluted, but Article XXIII of the CBA is where you find that information. mlbplayers.com/_files/ugd/4d23dc_d6dfc2344d2042de9…
Snell was paid a $17 million signing bonus. That is part of the amount counted toward AAV for the Giants.
Since 2025 is a player option, his 2025 salary does not count towards the CBT until he exercises it and the spends the 2025 in a Padres uniform. ARTICLE XXIII Section E(5)(a)(ii) of the CBA covers that. Because half of that $30 million owed for 2025 is deferred, it counts as $27 million towards the CBT if he exercises his player option. That would not put the Padres over the CBT threshold for 2025. Including all options and projected arbitration raises they are still under $200 million for 2025 and the CBT threshold will be $241 million.
The Padres would be responsible for the $5 million balance of his salary in 2024 if they traded for him and that would not put them over the CBT threshold this season. They would still have about $3 million to spend. Enough to get a good reliever.
All of that being said, I don’t think Preller would make a trade unless he was assured by Snell that he was opting out of 2025. I think that with so many good pitchers, especially SP, coming onto the FA market this offseason, Preller is going to want to leave his options open in that regard.
Incredibly detailed post. Thanks for taking the time.
Padres have about $8.8 million left under the CBT threshold. Snell is owed $10.2 million. Giants would have to eat salary to make that work.
Giants have two choices. They can eat salary and get better prospects or require the trading team to take on all of Snell’s contract and get marginal prospects. I believe they will eat salary. Possibly all of it for 2024 if the prospect is good enough.
Where are you seeing 8.8m under the tax. Fangraphs has it at near 12m and that’s not even counting the millions they have already saved while darvish has been gone.
Simm, He is talking about what Cots has them at and it doesn’t include the savings for Darvish being on restricted list.
Fangraphs does already include the $3 million per month in savings on Darvish.
Snell’s contract included a $17 million signing bonus which would count towards the Giants portion of his AAV. The player option would not count towards that AAV until he exercised the option. It is then considered a 1 year contract.
For 2024, the Padres portion of his AAV would be the $5 million he will be owed after the trade deadline. That would leave them $3 plus million under the CBT threshold.
As you said, because of Snell’s injuries and poor production this season, unless the Giants eat some of that salary, they are going to be offered only low-end prospects. Lottery tickets.
Try again, in English this time.
In after ESL
last three starts Snell has been very good. He should be considered an impending free agent if traded. Of course, he will opt out from one year.
If not, you have a good pitcher for one more season.
How about Snell and Doval to Orioles for a couple of MLB ready position players?
Orioles would be favorites to win WS.
JD415 — And who would those Oriole players be? Mayo plus ?????
LOL
Snell has looked a lot more like his 2023 self in his last 3 starts (2 ER, 5 walks, 15 K’s in 18 innings) than at any point this season so teams must think he’s turning it around after a horrible start (spring training is important kids, let Snell be exhibit A). I could see the Astros jumping in here. They were interested in the off-season and after reclaiming the top spot in the west need starting pitching badly
Sell Sell Sell!!!
Astros are trying to dump Montero. I can see a fit.
Trade deadline has become a Sellers Market. Look at the asking prices for Skubal, Crochet, Vlad Jr, Bichette, Robert Jr, Alonso
If teams are truly interested in Snell, Zaidi has 2 options:
1) keep Snell & let him continue returning to his previous Cy Young form;
2) trade Snell to the highest bidder
It’s time for Zaidi to redeem himself & save face with the fanbase. Zaidi must demand that the highest bidder trade to the Giants 3 of their Top 10 prospects or there is no deal
Zaidi has everything to gain & nothing to lose
Look at the trades that have already happened. No consequential prospects have changed hands.
Puk netted the D’backs #14 prospect and a minor leaguer
Arozarena netted 2 guys that are middle of the pack prospects.
Paxton netted nothing.
Orioles and Phils traded under-performing major league players
The options for a Giants team whose season is over for all intents and purposes and who are trying to trade a player who has been injured, under-performed, and is likely a 2 month rental are:
Eat Snell’s salary this season in hopes of getting a decent prospect.
Require the team trading for Snell to take his salary and get marginal prospects in return.
Which do you think he will do?
Sit on his hands, as always.
Stop looking at the asking price and look at the prices actually being paid.
Samuel- is correct. You can ask for anything that doesn’t mean you are getting that. Skubal would bring back the most but he is unlikely to be traded. Ever since the Soto trade people use that as the price for very good players with control. That Soto trade was a big overpay and teams will not make that kind of trade. Even the padres aren’t going to make that kind of trade again.
Some fans will say meet the price or we keep him which they can. The issue is the value of that player only goes down with less control.
Ever since the Soto trade people use that as the price
========================
Fans have been doing that forever. In the ’60s, fans would look at the very worst overpay and expect the same.
Some SD did the same with Soto, expecting the NYY to give them a time-adjusted package comparable to what they gave up.
Farhan another successful under .500 campaign. Outside 107 win season which is clearly an outlier – he has produced less than mediocre results
Bringing Sleepy bob back home to the Bay Area really helped facilitate that record. Its amazing how well his hands off managing approach works wherever he goes.
Can we trade Farhan as well? I’d trade him for a “janitor to be named later”.
You shouldn’t be stooping to try to be the first one in. Certainly, if you have an opinion, chime in. But there is no honor in being first in for first-in sakes.
While I agree with opposition to “First” culture, I did find that reply quite funny
Snellzilla would look good in Baltimore Orange on the Beast Coast. I don’t think we can keep throwing Suarez out there, even though his numbers are better than Snell this year.
Tough to take on that contract, but if he pitches well down the stretch, he could opt out.
Heard an interesting trade proposal on the radio just no. Snell and $9.92 million to the Padres for Lesko and a lottery ticket like Beshears.
2 months of Snell isn’t worth Lesko
I liked Lesko, but he’s really regressed.
Two months of Snell isn’t worth any top prospect
Lesko just turned 20, he’s still recovering from major injury. This year is a reset, hard to have too high expectations. Upside is huge still.
Joe- Lesko hasn’t really regressed he has never got on track. His walk rates are terrible. Though if he can find his command he could very well be a top of the rotation arm.
The padres would be selling low on him if they moved him right now.
Also it says it states that snells bonus can’t be transferred to a different team. Which I read that as his salary which can be is only 15m this year. So that would mean he is only owed about 5m for the rest of the year.
Good point about the bonus. But isn’t that just for cash purposes? If the NYY or LAD were to trade for him, they’d still owe the CBT on $10M. Maybe?
But it still makes it more palatable.
I wrote about that in another comment. Padres would be on hook only for a $5 million AAV for Snell. The signing bonus applies to the Giants portion of the AAV for 2024. The player option year is not counted towards the CBT calculations until he exercises the option and then it’s considered a 1-year deal. So, all of it would go to 2025. That would be $27 million since half of it is deferred.
There is practically no way that Snell doesn’t opt out. He will get a long-term deal for more than $30 million guaranteed regardless of how he pitches the rest of this season.
If you are talking about what Jim Russell said, it was $4.22 million. Basically leaving the Padres to pay the major league minimum.
Don’t think that will happen, but Preller is known to make splashy deals like that.
Snell is a great fit for the Twins. He’s not terribly expensive this year ($15MM salary), he’s on an expiring contract, and even if he opts in (it’d probably only be due to injury), the 2025 salary is paid 50% in 2025 and 50% in 2027.
The Twins currently have financial issues.
You want to screw then in 225 and 2027 as well?
Snell’s opting out, dude. He was almost always certain to do so. Even if he didn’t, the Twins can find $15MM in a future year. Moot point. The Pohlads pulled the rug out from under season ticket holders this year.
Would be a decent upgrade and nice reunion if the Mets could swing a deal for conforto. Would solve the platoon issue in right and eliminate the need to keep a guy like DJ Stewart on the team.
Agree. Loved DJ when he was in Baltimore but he’s not an impact player.
I think this gets done.
With the opt outs maybe mlb should consider the nfl style of trading and have the receiving team getting the premier player send a prospect or two back if the player doesn’t opt out.
Baltimore’s new ownership should flex it’s farm system and not only get a controllable pitcher at the deadline, they should go an get Snell and have Ryan Walker in that package. Top of the rotation and high leverage bullpen arms are what win in October. (shhhh don’t tell the LAD front office, they don’t know! LOL)
And it’s not tough to take on Snell’s contact, the SFG would likely pay down the balance of this year to get a better return. It’s not a guarantee but adding Snell along side Burnes is the type of 1-2 gets teams to the World Series. That alone should be worth $30M to any franchise. Better yet due to his late start to the season, 2 IL stints, Snell is fresh and if he throws a 4th consecutive gem on Saturday his value will only go up.
In Baltimore’s shoes, I’d deal for him before that start. They are uniquely setup, they’re not in the CBT, they have the deep farm, they have new owners whom I think would be on board with this. I know BAL is fired up to be rid of the Angelos family but how next level goodwill would this ownership earn by green lighting a Snell deal?
You have some good depth at SS. What would you give up for Snell with money paying down the salary
Except Giants aren’t trading Ryan Walker (their next Closer when Doval gets dealt).
I don’t think Baltimore is one of the top markets for Scott Boras clients that are no longer under 6 year team control.
In fact, I think the Baltimore FO is too busy with other issues to even take time for an exploratory phone call from Mr. Boras or one of his associates…..nor do I think anyone working at the Boras corporation would waste their time.
Snell has a contract for 2024, the only call Baltimore wants from Scott at the conclusion of the WS and that Snell has decided to opt out for 2025
I think people on here are missing a key point. While Snell has not had an encouraging season between injuries and poor pitching results he is also a pure rental. He is expected to opt out this offseason.
That leaves the Giants with 2 options if they want to trade him:
1 – Pay down his salary this season in order to get a decent prospect.
2 – Require the team trading for Snell to pay his entire salary and get marginal prospects.
Which do YOU think they are going to do.
Since their season is already over and Snell is a sunk cost, I am going to go with pay down his salary hoping for a good prospect in return.
This is what the Mets did last season with Verlander/scherzer. Ate most if not all for good prospects in return. I guess there move of Snell and to pay or not to pay, will boil down to the prospects dangled in front of them
Pads fan-He is expected to opt out this offseason.
=========================
The problem is with the “expected”. He’s pitching better but still winless with a 5.83. If he doesn’t go on one of his patented runs, he doesn’t opt out. And he only has 11-12 starts left.
Joe, don’t you think that no matter how he ends up the season that Snell will get a deal in excess of $30 million guaranteed?
With that in mind and his age, its a given that he will opt out unless he is signed to an extension.
Don’t speak for all Giants fans, but at this point it doesn’t really matter to me what they do. This is a lost season and I don’t see it getting better in the near future. None of the players mentioned as sell targets is going to bring back anything of value. Been a fan since ’58 and this is as disappointing team as I can remember.
Yes, I have been a fan for 45 years…I have seen some pretty bad years but felt I could always see the light at the end of the tunnel. Not with this dude at the helm. Giants do have some good pitching coming up and fitz looks good and Ramos. They need a star desperately to build around.
They ARE toast this season, but I think next season—with the young position players and arms getting better and better—the Giants will be in good shape IF Farhan gets off his ass and deals for a couple of everyday bats (Bichette and Luis Robert?). But, of course, that means Farhan has to show he has balls.
I don’t have as much faith in the young players as you do, at least on the hitting side. Outside of Bailey none of the young guys has shown they can sustain for more than a month or two. Besides Eldridge, who is years away, none of their position prospects are highly rated by outside analysts. I would love to be proved wrong and am rooting for all of them, but until I see more sustained success my expectations will remain limited…
John Bird, You don’t consider Heliot Ramos as sustaining being good? His OPS for June and July was .946 and .808 respectively. He hit a bit of a skid, but seems to have adjusted, going 6 for 14 in his last 3 games.
A lot of people are calling Luciano a bust. He’s still a prospect, ranked in the top 100 (along with Whisenhunt and Eldridge). Luciano appears to be where Ramos was 2 years ago.
Jean, always been a huge Ramos fan, but right now he’s got way too much chase in his swing. I’m hopeful he will adjust Luciano is a player without a position. Much of his value was tied to his ability to play short. It was noted earlier today on KNBR that when Estrada went on the IL they brought Schmidt up instead of Luciano which hints that the shift to 2B hasn’t been smooth IMO. Like I said I hope I’m proved wrong.
John, We’re all just guessing here. But, I wouldn’t read too much into Schmitt being called up instead of Luciano. Anyone that gets called up is going to sit a lot. My guess is they want Luciano playing every day.
Luciano is still just 22, and if he hits, they’ll find a position for him, even if it’s the OF, or even 1B. Best case scenario was him at SS, but his power was also why he was valued.
Plus, the whole team has too much chase in their swings. I look at the hitting coach as not being effective in sending that message.
Agreed
The problem is Farhan. He will never allow the team to build around the young players and will always bring in middling has beens hoping they have one great season in them. It’s rarely a winning formula.
I think a change in scenery would help Bichette. I was hoping for this trade a few weeks ago.
See if you can get something good for him, if not, keep him.
Normally I’d be all pitchforks, but the Giant’s luck has been terrible. Between Snell, Ray, and Cobb’s non availability, and Lee’s injury, it’s been tough to evaluate how good they are. I definitely think moving some of the pieces like Conforto and the other mediocre hitters might make sense to give youth a chance. But the starting staff might be something to see this year if internal discussions indicate that Snell and Ray for example are committed for next year.
Fasteddy (Felson?)
Good points. The bad luck was certainly a contributor. But even with the bad luck, I thought they still had a shot at a WC berth. And as disappointing as this season has been I don’t agree with laying the blame at Zaidi’s feet. He did all he could with the talent available that was willing to sign with SF. A different PBO still doesn’t convince Ohtani or Yamamoto to sign. Criticizing Zaidi is over-simplistic bottom-line analysis.
As I wrote in another post, I wonder if the blame shouldn’t be on the hitting coaches. This team on paper is better than the team on the field. With the exception of Wade. Every hitter is performing this season worse than their career averages. Yaz is close to his, and Bailey and Ramos don’t have enough of a track record to tell. But every other hitter has performed far below their typical production. I can’t believe it’s simply a coincidence that practically the entire team is all having a down year in the same year.
I just can’t see the Giants selling just as their pitching starts getting healthy. Tough call for the FO….
Caveat emptor.
Snell and Rogers to the Orioles for Jud Fabian, Juan Nunez, and Cole Irvin. Giants eat $5 million on Rogers’ 2025 salary. Orioles assume all risk on Snell’s 2025 salary.
Fabian (2nd rounder, 2022) is the headliner, a AA OF with huge power and speed that also walks but who still needs further refinement, and Nunez is an intriguing arm who probably ends up a reliever, but with high leverage upside there. Irvin provides a competent veteran lefty who can back fill Snell’s spot in the rotation or eat bulk innings out of the pen. I think that is pretty fair considering the enormous risk of Snell’s contract situation, am I wrong?
Orioles wouldn’t waste their money on that albatross contract, they aren’t rich. Snell has been awful this year anyway
There is absolutely reason to think he could be something a lot closer to the 2023 version of Snell by October, especially in an organization that routinely rehabilitates pitchers like the Orioles, it’s just a matter figuring out if there is an agreeable meeting point of cost and risk.
He’s only been in 2023 form twice. I would not trust Snell’s track record. There’s a reason they’re trying to trade him now. He would only be tradeable if Giants eat that contract
He’s good overall but not worth the money he’s been paid.
Snell is maddening when trying to figure him out. I wouldn’t trade tons for him. The guy’s been pitching since 2016. His performance has been extremely average with the exception of two brilliant Cy Young seasons that stand alone.
Fabian is the absolute limit for a headliner for me, and I’d probably only do him if Rogers was also coming back.
Maybe Fabian for Snell straight up if the Giants agreed to pay like half of Snell’s 2025 salary if it is accepted.
Farhan is a mole for the Guggenheim Group. LOL!!!
If someone offers anything of even remote value for Yaz, they should take it. Love the guy, but the production hasn’t been there now for a couple years. Flores, on the other hand, could be a sneaky good pickup for a team like PHI who could just use him at utility/bench. He’s hit more pinch hit homers than anyone in MLB since 2018.
As a side note, who in their right mind would want Snell and the contract??
I’d love him back San Diego, but that money makes it difficult.
Snell is only a $5 million CBT hit this season and there is no way he doesn’t opt out. He will get more than $30 million guaranteed even if he has a bad season. It may take 2 years to surpass that $30 million, but he will get more than double that no matter what. Its really not a risk on the money end, The risk is what the Padres would have to give up in prospects to get Snell.
The Mets should make a blockbuster trade with SF, ( Baty, Tidwell, Parada, Alex Ramirez, any SS since we have plenty of them) for Conforto, Taylor Rogers, Flores and Kyle Harrison. 2 ex Mets coming home YES, YES YES.
No way SF trades Harrison. He’s the new Mad Bum.
I so wish it were Tyler and not Taylor on the trading block. Tyler at best is about a 20% mlb relief pitcher and 80% mlb batting practice pitcher.
Snellzilla since returning from IL.
4 starts.
24 IP.
30 SO.
7 BB.
0.75 ERA.
Just $5 million towards CBT in 2024 for the team that trades for him now.
He WILL opt out since $30 million guarantee will be easy to top in FA.
Will be CHEAP in prospect cost because he is a rental.
Go get him Padres.