GM Dana Brown On Astros’ Starting Pitching Pursuit

The Astros have a well-known need in the rotation, and general manager Dana Brown, never afraid to speak candidly, was open about his desire to upgrade/deepen the rotation mix in the next eight days in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link, with audio).

“Try go to big and see if there’s a deal that makes sense for the organization,” Brown said of his efforts to add a starter. “If that don’t work, we’ll go down to mid-level and hopefully we can land something there. But it doesn’t hurt to ask. When you go through this, ask and thou shall receive sometimes. We want to try to go big, and if we can’t get the big thing done, we’ll try to go mid-level so we can get through this.”

Brown went on to note that with Luis Garcia and Justin Verlander both on the mend, bringing in a potential deadline acquisition to further bolster the rotation would allow the Astros to work from a six-man rotation “at times” down the stretch. With Garcia returning from Tommy John surgery, Verlander already having gone through a pair of IL stints in 2024, and breakout righty Ronel Blanco likely to reach a new career-high in innings pitched before the end of the month, there’s good reason for the ’Stros to target a six-man group down the stretch.

That six-man group would include Blanco, Verlander, Garcia, Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and a potential deadline pickup. Rookie right-handers Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss would presumably remain on hand as a depth options if needed (although speculatively speaking, either could be a secondary piece in a trade to bring in a more established starter).

The trade market is hardly teeming with “go big” types of starting pitchers, though White Sox ace Garrett Crochet stands as one obviously available name in that regard. Brown and his staff could certainly try to pry Crochet loose from Chicago or make an even longer-shot bid for Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, but Skubal isn’t expected to change hands and the Astros’ farm system isn’t all that well regarded. That’s not a surprise for a team that typically picks near the back of the draft due to strong finishes in the standings and forfeited a pick to sign Josh Hader — but it’s a notable roadblock to getting a “big” deal across the finish line.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the Astros simply don’t have the young talent to pull off a trade for a starting pitcher of note. Outfielder Jacob Melton is widely considered to be among the game’s 100 best prospects, ranking 67th at MLB.com and 68th at Baseball America. He’s ranked 78th at FanGraphs, where the aforementioned Bloss lands in the No. 100 spot on their own leaguewide prospect rankings. Bloss and other young big leaguers like Arrighetti and outfielder/first baseman Joey Loperfido could also hold appeal to other teams. Righty A.J. Blubaugh has pitched well in Triple-A for much of the season. Prospects like outfielder Zach Cole and third baseman Zach Dezenzo are both in Double-A and could be big league options by next year. The Astros organization may not be bursting with elite prospects, but there are some interesting names knocking on the door of the majors.

The Astros are a typically high-payroll club, which also enables them to provide some benefit to potential sellers in the form of taking on guaranteed salary. They’re already sitting on a record-high payroll and are just a few hundred thousand dollars from crossing into the second tier of luxury penalization, per RosterResource. However, they’re also a first-year payor right now after spending the ’23 season under the tax line, and as such, they’d only be jumping from a 20% overage tax to a 32% tax in crossing that line. If the Astros were to tack on another $20MM of luxury obligations, they’d be on the cusp of the third tier, at which point their top pick in the 2025 draft would be pushed back 10 spots, but that’s quite a ways from reality at the moment.

Moreover, it doesn’t sound as though it’ll be a Crochet/Skubal type or bust. “If we can get a mid-level guy and we get Garcia and Verlander back,” said Brown later in that same radio appearance, “that would be massive to this club.”

Astros starters are tied for 16th in the majors with a 4.20 ERA, though that number includes some strong early-season work from righty Cristian Javier, who won’t be back in 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fellow righty Jose Urquidy was also lost for the season due to UCL surgery, while righty J.P. France had shoulder surgery last month. It’s not clear right now when or whether Lance McCullers Jr. will return this season after a setback in his recovery from flexor surgery.

Brown struggled immensely early in the season but has turned things around since incorporating a sinker into his repertoire (2.55 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate in 81 1/3 innings). Blanco, who tossed the season’s first no-hitter back on April 1, has been the Astros’ rock in 2024, logging a 2.75 ERA in 114 1/3 innings. Valdez and Verlander have pitched well when healthy but both have been on the IL this season.

Houston sat a whopping 10 games out of first place as recently as June 18, but closed that gap emphatically with a 19-7 run in its past 26 games — including taking two of three against the now formerly division-leading Mariners just this weekend. The Astros and Mariners are now tied for the top spot in the AL West.