The Rays have been open to trading from their rotation this year and could do so again, with right-hander Zach Eflin one of the possible candidates. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.
The Rays aren’t fully in the seller camp as they are currently 51-51 and just 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. However, their rotation health has improved as the season has gone along and given them a relative surplus. That has allowed them to explore deals that either address another area of the roster, bolster the prospect depth, save some money or some combination of those goals.
Each of Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen began the season recovering from past arm surgeries. The Rays had a rotation of Eflin, Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Zack Littell and Aaron Civale for most of this year. Once they were ready to put Baz back into the rotation, they flipped Civale to the Brewers for a prospect and called up Baz.
A similar trade could make sense in the coming days. Pepiot is currently on the injured list with a knee infection but isn’t expected to be out for too long, while the Rays have Springs and Rasmussen both currently on rehab assignments. It’s therefore possible that they could trade a pitcher or two and still go through the stretch run with a healthy rotation. They have Tyler Alexander and Jacob Lopez around as depth and then Shane McClanahan should be back in the mix next year, after he recovers from his own elbow surgery.
Most of the pitchers in Tampa’s rotation mix are controllable for many years but Eflin and Littell are each slated for free agency after 2025. Eflin is a particularly sensible candidate for the budget-conscious club due to his contract. He signed a three-year, $40MM deal with Tampa going into 2023, with that deal being backloaded. He made $11MM last year and has that salary again here in 2024, with a jump to $18MM next year.
That is vaguely reminiscent of the extension that the Rays signed with Tyler Glasnow. While he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow signed a two-year extension with the Rays which was also heavily backloaded. He was paid $5.35MM in 2023, his final arbitration season and a year in which he was expected to return from the surgery. The Rays also gained an extra year of control over him by giving him a $25MM salary for 2024.
He ended up returning in 2023 as expected, tossing 120 innings with a 3.53 earned run average. But before the big salary jump kicked in, he was traded to the Dodgers in a four-player deal that brought back Pepiot.
With Eflin set for a big raise next year and the Rays having plenty of other rotation options, he could be on the move shortly and should have plenty of suitors. He’s been a solid rotation stalwart for several years now, first with the Phillies and then with the Rays since signing his aforementioned deal. Dating back to the start of 2018, he has a 4.01 ERA in over 800 innings. His 22.2% strikeout rate in that time is close to par but he’s limited walks to a tiny rate of 4.9%.
Health has been an issue for Eflin, largely due to knee problems. He was limited to just 181 1/3 innings over 2021 and 2022, his final two years in Philadelphia, but has managed to stay on the mound more in Tampa. He logged 177 2/3 innings over 31 starts last year with a 3.50 ERA. This year, he’s already up to 19 starts and 110 innings with a 4.09 ERA. He had brief stints on the IL both years due to lower back issues but otherwise kept the train on the tracks.
That type of solid performance would have plenty of appeal and the listed teams each make sense as a landing spot. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider to UCL surgery and also saw Max Fried head to the injured list recently, along with depth options like Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.
Currently, their rotation consists of Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Charlie Morton and Spencer Schwellenbach, with various guys rotating through the back end. Bolstering that group with an external addition or two is plenty logical. Fried could perhaps be back but there’s risk in the current composition. Sale has a lengthy injury history and the club might want to hedge against him getting hurt again, even though he’s stayed healthy this year. López was just returned to a starting role after working as a reliever for a few years and could perhaps run out of gas later in the year. Morton’s gas tank might also be a factor just because he’s now 40 years old. Schwellenbach has been performing well but has just nine career starts in the majors.
The fact that Eflin is under contract for next year is likely appealing to Atlanta as well. Fried and Morton are both impending free agents, with the latter a possibility to consider retiring at season’s end. Strider will still be out of action by the start of 2025 so the on-paper rotation for next year will be Sale, López and a few question marks. Schwellenbach and some of the other young guys could step up and fill that in, but it’s no guarantee, so adding Eflin into the group would make sense.
The competitive balance tax may be a concern, as Atlanta is currently at $273MM, per the calculations of RosterResource. If they cross the third threshold of $277MM, they would not only incur a higher tax rate but their top pick in next year’s draft would also be moved back ten spots. Given where they are, they probably prefer to stay south of that line.
Eflin’s CBT hit is currently $13.33MM, based on the average annual value of his three-year, $40MM deal. However, a player’s CBT hit is recalculated when he is traded. If a deal comes together in the next few days, he would have about a third of this year’s $11MM salary remaining, in the ballpark of $3.67MM. Combined with his $18MM salary next year, that’s $21.67MM over a season and a third, making for a CBT hit of $16.3MM. If Atlanta acquires him for the final two months of the season, they would put a third of that figure on their CBT calculation for this year, or $5.43MM.
Assuming the RR calculations are close to correct, taking on Eflin’s entire contract might be problematic for Atlanta, so they might try to get creative and have Tampa eat a portion of the deal. Next year’s CBT hit is far lower, currently at $185MM, but they will undoubtedly add to that with some offseason moves.
The Astros have also had their share of rotation challenges this year, with Cristian Javier and José Urquidy both requiring Tommy John surgery. Luis Garcia has yet to return from his own TJS operation from last year while Lance McCullers Jr. is still trying to get back from his own elbow procedure. Justin Verlander is also on the shelf with a neck injury.
Their current rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss. Brown has recovered from an awful start to the season but each of Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss is lacking in experience. Blanco only recently moved to the rotation after years of bullpen work while Arrighetti and Bloss are rookies who both have ERAs north of 5.60 so far this year.
Like Atlanta, Houston is set to pay the CBT this year but they have far more wiggle room. Houston’s CBT number is currently at $256MM, per RR. That’s just shy of the $257MM second line but crossing that only comes with a slight bump in tax rate and no draft pick penalties.
The Cardinals have a solid rotation front four consisting of Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas. With Steven Matz injured, they have had Andre Pallante holding down the fifth spot lately. Pallante has a decent 3.42 ERA in his nine starts but he has a subpar strikeout rate of 19.8% and a limited track record overall.
Adding Eflin could bolster that group for this year and 2025 as well. Both Gibson and Lynn are on one-year deals and could be free agents this winter. They both have club options on their deals but it’s not a guarantee that the Cardinals would pick either of those up. Unlike Atlanta and Houston, the CBT is not a huge concern in St. Louis. RR currently has the Cards at $215MM, which is $22MM south of the $237MM base threshold.
Braves need to sell and accept defeat. They are a bad team in need for new management.
After the last few series, this Phillies fan is reminded that this year is the 60th anniversary of 1964. Don’t give up yet.
Your Gm is main reason!
Sure the Braves are struggling. Injuries do that, but they arent selling when they are still 2 up and hold the number 1 slot in the wild card. TradeAcuna is the most negative Braves poster on here. At least you are consistent. The Braves were worse in 2021 and the right moves at the deadline helped then.
Also the Braves don’t need to sell. They need to do nothing and just let this disaster play out. Who you going to replace? Olson? Riley? Albies?
They have guys who shouldn’t be playing like this. It’s clearly not going to come together this year. Hopefully they do some deep reflecting in the offseason and actually come to play next year. They literally just didn’t show up all season.
All directed at the offense. Pitching was fine.
54-46 is NOT a disaster. If you want to see a disaster, watch a hundred or so White Sox games.
Just as you’re tired of Braves fans who point to legitimate issues, which you like to call “lame excuses”; I’m tired of Braves fans that act as if anything short of 162-0 is some type of crisis. Why not just chill?
Why would anyone want to replace Riley? He’s overcome his typical slow start and returned to his usual strong offense.
Wow I keep up with the news but I missed where somebody found out how to manage injuries. Where can I find the details, please.
For the first time this guy doesn’t have an insane opinion
The braves can contend with the right trades and people heating up but they can’t compete in October if their only good hitter is ozuna
Austin Riley is definitely a “good hitter.”
He’s getting back to his standards I should’ve mentioned him
But with olson, Harris, Albies, arcia, Murphy not doing well the braves can’t compete
They’re still in first WC position. That’s competing lol.
Do you actually think this team is competitive?
Look if you all want to point to their record be my guest. It is impressive they’ve won as much as they have playing as bad offensively as they have.
I already said the pitching has been good. But think about what you’re asking. You think this team will be competitive in October with the offense playing like this? Injuries hasn’t caused this. They’ve been bad without the injuries. At best the injuries simply removed the hope they could turn it around.
On the pitching side you’re asking Reynaldo Lopez to hold up pitching like a cy young candidate all year.
Yes they are 54-46 and in the first WC spot. They also just got exposed (sorry but if you can’t admit this then just leave) by the Cardinals coming out of the break. They trailed every game and managed to steal one in extras. But largely they looked completely outmatched all around.
And that’s the Cardinals. Not the Phillies or the Dodgers.
This team will fall beneath the Cardinals and Mets before it’s done. So you can keep clinging to the 54-46 record all you want but anyone who watches them can see they are playing bad. It’s not a good team overall, I’m sorry you can’t deal with that. Stop being blinded by the current record. The end record will have them scraping in on the last WC or not at all. And even if they do get in, it will be a sweep and an early exit because this offense is bad. You’re basically hoping 1 or 2 runs each night will carry you to a WS.
Go back and count how often they scored more than 3 runs this year and then ask yourself how confident you are that this team is a real threat in the playoffs.
If you guys want to throw numbers like current record around then maybe try swallowing this number
22nd in runs scored
Hanging out with the likes of the Nats and the Pirates. From an offense that broke records last year. The injuries didn’t derail that this year. But I guess that’s not a disaster to some of you. What is? They have to be 30th in runs scored before it’s a disaster? I’d really love to know and I’ll use disaster with your new definition from now on.
You can take your insults and “just leave” too.
You cannot just ignore the fact that injuries to RAJ, Murphy, Harris and now Ozzie have deprived the offense of a chance to get going. You’re trying hard, I’ll give you that- but it’s nonsense, dude. How many games have the Braves projected starting 8 played together in the same lineup? I’ll be honest, without looking, I’m confident that number is low.
Forget the numbers, you’re also discounting what losing a player like RAJ does to a team. You don’t think everyone is trying just a little harder instead of playing loose? He is the leader of the team.
Furthermore, the Braves offense was historically good last year, and they lost to the Phils. I’m not going to pretend scoring runs the way they did doesn’t help your cause, but it’s not everything. This team COULD win with pitching this year. I wouldn’t say it’s especially likely, but I the same breath, having a chance is better than not. And if they don’t win, I’m fine with it. Not every year gets to be our favorite team’s year.
2 runs against the Mets tonight
Lmao don’t be upset when you’re wrong. I’d love for them to turn it around too but I’ve seen enough to know this offense has checked out.
Selling is dumb because they SHOULD be much better so just keep what you have and hope they show up in 2025. They didn’t in 2024. How childish do you have to be to continue in denial? Buying given the current state is not smart. It’s that simple.
All I see is more evidence tonight. Let me know when you get ANY evidence they’ll turn it around other than your blind hope.
/discussion
“How childish do you have to be to” keep insulting people who don’t agree w/your opinionated rants? Why don’t you try making a fact based case to convince those who don’t agree w/your OPINIONS. Here’s a fact—The Braves playoff odds are still better than 70%. This is an opinion—Buying might help increase those odds. Understand the difference? Another fact: Two of the least likely teams to advance to or win the 2023 WS did so. Here’s another one: The Braves playoff odds in July of 2021 were much less than their odds are at the same point in this season. You know how that ended. Hope isn’t blind. You might be though.
So the offense just checked out because it’s 2024? Or maybe they switched the Gatorade flavor in the clubhouse? Lol. What evidence do you have they checked out, and what makes your opinion hold any more weight than my opinion that the guys are pressing because of injuries?
Let me help you: none.
I trust the Braves front office. If they buy, there is good reason. They’ve built a World Series winner, you haven’t. It’s that simple. /discussion
Cards don’t need this guys. They need to grow a pair and get a solid #1 or #2 guy. They hoard position players like no one’s business. They have a log jam in the OF and seem to be waiting until all their stock decreases to make a mediocre move. Tampa don’t count on them being serious unless you have someone who is worse or older than Eflil.
What log jam? The Cardinals currently have a super utility guy in LF, and a guy who can field but can’t hit platooned with a guy who can hit LHP decently but not RHP at all in CF. Then they have regular starters in RF and for the most part at DH. Edman will be back from the IL before long, but that just means he’ll mostly take over in CF. As long as Walker continues to suck in AAA, the only log jam is when they want to give someone else a partial rest at DH.
You could have gone with “the only log jam is when Oli Marmol is constipated” and you whiffed on it. I will never forgive you.
Shane M. is signed for $3.6mil for next season & still under club control after that. Eflin makes a ton of sense to trade to address the bullpen & offense going forward.
According to Cot’s Contracts, the Braves are just at about $268M for CBT purposes, so they might have a little more space to add.
Eflin makes 2M less next year than what Morton makes this year. So, even if Morton returned at the same rate (possible, since it’s happened already), this would effectively replace him with a younger, cheaper, better (IMHO) option.
Watch TB trade Eflin (and his contract) to ATL and Morton signs with TB for a 1/16M next year. smh
Sure glad Phillies have an absolute excess of SPs at all levels and still are rumored to be in on Crochet, Skubal and Flaherty. Tigers been Dombros go to team via trade. He mustve left Detroit very popular and opposite with Red Sox
I dont like Efflin for the Cardinals. The Cardinals need a lefty starter. And they don’t need another starter making big money in 2025 in the last year of his deal. This is like Fedde except Efflon costs more. I want see the Cardinals work something out with the Marlins. The Marlins need a catcher and they have lefty pitching.
The Cards seem to be on the short end of every trade they do with Tampa.
Not really. The Arozarena trade wasn’t good. That’s 1 trade.
I’d also call the Tommy Pham trade a loss, but yeah, that’s mostly hyperbole. So far, the Kittredge for Palacios trade has worked for both sides.
Besides, the Rays win a lot of trades in general no matter whom they are trading with.
Lefty starters are highly overrated. It’s a nice thing to have, but there have been plenty of years when the Cardinals have made the playoffs and even won the 2004 NL Pennant and 2006 World Series with all right-handed rotations.
I don’t want to rely on what happened in 2006 as the blueprint for anything.
Having a lefty starter gives the opposing lineup a different look and that’s important in a 7 game series. No it’s not required but it makes sense to have one.
Then use 2004 and the other years as the blueprint.
You can give the opposing lineup different looks without necessarily using a lefty. Gray throws the gas and a huge sweeper, Lynn throws a bunch of different fastballs, Mikolas has superb control, Matz (when healthy) gets lots of grounders, etc.
Elfin for Jordan walker straight up we’ll fix em
Just because the Cardinals gifted you Randy Arozarena and Tommy Pham for pennies on the dollar, and gave away Adolis Garcia and others for nothing doesn’t mean the organization can’t evaluate or develop its own talent…..
…….OK, maybe it does.
Don’t forget Zac Gallen
Efflon has barely any positive trade value at all. No deal.
I don’t hate the ides of Eglin, but not excited about it. I would rather they go with Hence and Mathews, later Hjerte (sp) ?.
We need the ghost of Bowie Kuhn to enforce the rules and stop letting teams punish the competitive balance
Kuhn stopped trade of Jack Clark in early 80’s to Pirates ,then he went to Cards. Money issue. Believe Johnny Ray, Jason Thompson involved.
I think AA will get a savvy deal done and acquire at least eflin maybe with arozarena too
A deal like that has AA’s name all over it
The actor !?
“Expected” to have interest, not “reported” to have interest. Big difference there.
Stop!!! lol. What a ridiculous statement lol
Welp, I most definitely click “reply” to the first guys comment but guess this is just gonna post down here.
Braves need hitting, but I like this move and I hope we get Paxton also. We r struggling to stay healthy, we like to give our pitching rest, and both guys are solid #4’s or 5’s. That said, hope we get hitting
If a reporter writes about the Braves being interested in a player, that means the Braves aren’t interested in such player
Headline says;
“Astros, Braves, Cardinals Reportedly Interested In Zach Eflin”
First para says;
” Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that the Astros, Braves and Cardinals are “among the teams expected to have strong interest” in the righty.”
So this is not a story about what three teams have said or done, but rather a brain fart makeup story from Marc Topkin.
Cardinals need bats, not arms.
Baseball needs a salary cap. Or just delete 6 teams. Buying championships is getting old fast and the game is losing fans quickly. Speeding up pitchersis not the problem. Allowing teams to buy championships is. Braves winning in 21the outlier. O’s have a shot but the phils, Dodgers etc. will win out more often than not. Its been great watching this spending only to see them lose though.