The Orioles are set to call top prospect Heston Kjerstad back up to the majors, according to Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner (via X). The corresponding move isn’t known, but MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko guesses the O’s might designate Nick Maton for assignment. Maton had his contract selected earlier this week to give Baltimore some infield depth when Jordan Westberg was nursing a hip contusion, but since Westberg has kept playing with seemingly no ill effect from the contusion, Maton could be expendable.
Kjerstad made his MLB debut with 13 games in the 2023 season, and he received 17 plate appearances over seven games earlier this season when the O’s had called him up to the active roster from April 23 to May 12. Kjerstad had a .748 OPS over 33 PA in 2023 and only a .437 OPS in his 17 PA this season, so one can’t really make any judgements based on such small and sporadic doses of playing time.
What is clear that is Kjerstad doesn’t have much less to prove at the Triple-A level. He has hit .301/.390/.601 with 16 home runs over 255 PA for Norfolk this season, which comes on the heels of his .298/.371/.498 slash line in 334 Triple-A trips to the plate in 2023. On just about any other team, Kjerstad would’ve already been a staple of the everyday lineup and been given a lot of time to test himself against big league pitching, but the Orioles’ unique situation creates more questions about just how often Kjerstad is going to play.
Kjerstad is a left-handed hitter who has played first base and both corner outfield slots in the minors, and he is generally considered a bat-first player more than a prime defensive option at any of his positions. Ryan O’Hearn is another lefty bat on Baltimore’s roster with that same defensive profile, plus the O’s have Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander in everyday roles at first base and right field. Cedric Mullins and Colton Cowser (both left-handed hitters) have been splitting time in center field, with Cowser also seeing a lot of time in left field, and the right-handed hitting Austin Hays also in the mix.
When a right-handed pitcher is on the mound, therefore, the Orioles already have a pretty full set of lefty-swinging options. It is worth noting that Cowser has struggled badly since a hot start to his season, so he might be the likeliest to lose playing time if Kjerstad is coming back to the Show. Mullins has also started hitting better after a deep slump, so the Orioles could give Mullins more time in center field and Cowser could be become something of a clearer backup outfielder. The issue there is that Cowser is another highly-touted young player whose development won’t be helped by mostly being a bench player in the majors, rather than getting regular time on the field.
Since the Orioles’ return to full-fledged contention has outpaced their rebuild, the team finds themselves with having almost too many good young players for too few 26-man roster spots. Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, and Jackson Holliday are other top prospects who have received limited playing time in the bigs this season, though in Holliday’s case, he was clearly ticketed for an everyday role but simply struggled too much to maintain a spot in the majors. Kjerstad could force the issue by going on a tear at the plate once he’s back in the Show, though obviously that’s easier said than done for a 25-year-old player.
If you hit they find a spot for you. If he puts up a 900 1000 ops the 700 800 guy will just lose playing time. No such thing as having too much talent. Trade deadline is coming up so go get some pitching with all this talent.
An .800 OPS regular is not going to lose playing time as league averages .704.
Will if everyone else at his positions is at 900 1000. Obviously it isn’t likely a team has 5 outfielders at that talent level but come on now creature.
Well, that makes mathematic sense. But how many teams have multiple .900 hitters? You’re lucky if you have 1, even luckier if you have 2. Much less likely that that .900 player will be a recent call-up. So this hypothetical is true, but it’s such an edge case that it’s not actually useful.
What’s the more likely is that a young player will need some time to work out struggles adjusting to the majors, that can take a few months. Last year we were able to do it for Gunnar. But now since we’re competing for the pennant, every slot counts.
“the team finds themselves with having almost too many good young players for too few 26-man roster spots”
That’s exactly why I disagree with this thinking. It’s rare to almost impossible to have too many good young players. Even if possible it isn’t a problem. You simply trade away the surplus. Send the weaker ones down to work on something. Trade the veterans. Having too many good players is a thing you dream about, not a problem you worry about.
Writers just writing a article so not picking on him. This is a coming thing people think will be a problem. It almost always works itself out.
How would you handle Rule V though. There’s a system built into baseball that forces you to add players to your 25-man roster after a certain time. And if you leave them unprotected during Rule V, another team can snatch them for the minimum salary. And if those players are too good, other teams have no problem keeping them on their team for the full year.
So this time clock also forces you to trade them before it becomes a factor. That clock is ticking on a few players this year.
Rule V only applies to the overall 40-man roster, not the 26-man active.
Rule 5 isn’t a problem. You trade prospects you don’t have a mlb spot for areas that you need help. If your mlb roster is so amazing you have no needs you trade rule 5 prospect for a non rule 5 prospect. You should never lose a good prospect in rule 5. Any team that doesn’t have the 1st pick will gladly trade for them.
Not having playing time for young players is a problem you create yourself. Easily avoidable. If you mess up you can still fix it. Best to plan ahead though.
Rule 5? Never heard of it.
That should have been my reply. I got sloppy and actually answered. Ugh I hate myself. Going to bed.
No, if you Rule V a player from another team they have to stay in the major leagues or be returned to the original club.
Sorry, it was late and I mis-worded my post. Meant 40-man.
The problem with having so many prospects that are all MLB-ready about the same times is that, the Orioles 40-man roster has started to become cramped. It’s going to start to get even more cramped for the next few years. And just like how some better farms of the last decade has had to deal with, we will be forced to leave a pretty useful player unprotected, and probably lost. Not saying any of those guys will be Norby’s or Kjerstad’s level of prospects of course. But it adds an extra pressure to cut a good deal to help manage the future.
Even pretty solid prospects start to get stale when they spend an extra 2 years in the minors. Everyone moves on to the next wave of hot young prospects. The Os need to maximize their prospects’ values before that happens. That was probably partly why Elias dealt Joey Ortiz and Hall when he did. They were getting a little too old to stay at that valuable “prospect” level. If he waited a year more on those guys, they’d start to be seen as reclamation projects by other teams.
Problem with the O’s is that Kjerstad plays RF mainly and dabbles at 1B. He’s not taking playing time from Santander, O’Hearn, or Mountcastle so I’m curious to see how much playing time he gets this year.
Side note, Kjerstad, or as I affectionately refer to as “Ikea,” was hit 3 times in 3 innings yesterday on 3 pitches and was subsequently ejected from the game after the 3rd HBP. He turned and said something to the umpire, who apparently did not appreciate the comment.
The Orioles should form two teams and send one to Nashville as an expansion team. The O’s would own both teams. With all due respect to the White Sox, who wants a team full of rejects and retreads which the Sox and expansion teams are made of?
The majority of the O’s prospects will turn out to be average ballplayers or worse. It only takes a couple real good ones to turn a franchise around. Every fan thinks their team’s prospects will be perennial All-Stars, but that flies in the face of history. Just to make it to the big leagues is an accomplishment but very few turn out to be stars.
Generally speaking, I’d agree w you. I’ve been watching minor leagues and farm systems for 40 years. Seen my share of blowouts and busts. Tons of overhyped and overrated players galore. So I’m not really prone to hyperbole when it comes to prospects. So generally speaking the attritional odds of prospects meeting their expectations matches what you’re saying. But that said, there’s definitely something different going on right now in Baltimore.
They’ve figured out a type of player they’re aiming for, and matched it with player development philosophies that maximizes their play. I’m not saying that it will turn every prospect into a star. But they’re using data and dev process to make a lot of players useful and have some value. Even if that value is for a 2-3 years, that’s worth something. Esp. if there’s players behind them to push the train. So what I’m saying is that, a player doesn’t have to become an All-Star to be a success story. Everyone won’t become Adley Rutchsman or Gunnar Hendersons, but a lot of guys will become athletic players who add value and do a lot of things well for cheap. The long run of that approach should be pretty good.
Right now at this minute, I think Elias and his staff has earned enough respect to trust their talent evaluations, esp. on their own players. And I’m sure they look at their own with objectivity. And they have a sense of those attritional odds that you suggested. They literally haven’t missed yet (although time will tell).
Either Kjerstad or Cowser will be a key piece in a deal for an SP2-3 who has at least another year of control remaining. This gives Elias and potential partners a better look at what he’s got. There’s already enough of a book on Cowser to get away with sitting him more over the summer.
I think they trade prospects. Their other outfielders are nearing free agency. They could pay them sure but maybe better to move on and invest $ elsewhere. But if they don’t think they can improve Cowser k rate and not liking it then he could headline a deal to get them whoever they want. Kjerstad could as well.
I’d rather the Os focus on extending Gunnar and Adley first before Santander’s and other OFs. The old Os regime would have held onto players because of irrational emotional reasons, but Elias uses baseball sense that looks at the full long term picture of the franchise.
base, totally agree. Especially Adley as catcher is a difficult position to replace.
I don’t think Cowser is being dealt.
If there’s a deal in the offing it’s more likely first Norby and #5-15. If it’s a top prospect, Kjerstad but then It’s got to be for a legitimate starting pitcher. A lot of the Orioles #5-15 would be other org’s top 5. For example Norby is a pretty exciting talented multi-tool player. He just gets overshadowed being from a system with Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, which also produced Gunnar and Adley.
How about they don’t trade Heston or Colton
Santander mullins and hays aren’t getting any younger with Mullins and hays the most likely to be replaced
Heston takes over hays at left and cowser could take over center even though it wouldn’t be ideal since Colton is more of a RF type
If the O’s want to trade someone then mayo or norby or even Samuel would be most likely
A lot of people kidding themselves that a 24yo 2B with a 30% K rate in AAA (FV45) is going to get the Os a legit SP2 or SP3. Especially as it’ll likely be a pitcher with term, given the lack of quality pending FAs on non-playoff teams.
It’ll take Cowser, Kjerstad, or Mayo as the centerpiece for what the Os need. I’d much sooner give up one of the first two.
I mean the Os did get one season of Burnes, who is arguably a top 5 pitcher in the game, for Joey Ortiz and DH Hall. So no Norby by himself wouldn’t, but another decent piece with him would absolutely get them what they need.
My brother in Birdland, DL Hall (FV45) was the Norby in that trade. Ortiz was an FV50.
That’s actually *more* than Norby + Cowser (FV45). Again, this is why a top 40-60 SP with any term (no great pending UFAs) will undoubtedly cost one of Cowser/Kjerstad(FV50)/Mayo(FV55). Especially as Elias is likely to look for a high leverage reliever in the same deal.
My personal fave is Crochet. If the Os get him for 3 45s including Norby and Cowser, it’ll be a heist.
24yo 2B with a 30% K rate in AAA
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I don’t think either guy is going to get you a good pitcher. Like you said, the K-rates are too high, and neither Cowser nor Kjerstad are young kids. Same with Mayo, though he is a little younger. I’m not saying they can’t play, but all three look like 175+ K players.
Cowser plays LF better than Hays, and possesses similar range as Mullins in CF (despite having a much stronger arm). IOW, he tracks at all three OF positions with a strong arm.
In my opinion, if we have to deal one, just based on hit and power tools, Mayo is the player to keep between him and Kjerstad. Mayo has a lot of raw power and exit velo, like Kjerstad does. But I like his strike zone recognition and in-zone contact rates better. Then again, Kjerstad’s LHB swing may profile better in Camden Yards against the Great Wall of Bmore. Then again again, Mayo’s oppo power is legit. He can develop into a Mountcastle with less glove and more power. Hopefully he may get better w the glove over time, similar to Mounty.
Norby’s only been in the minors because the Os are so stacked. He’s competing for the similar infield mix roles as (formerly) Gunnar, Westburg, Holliday. I wouldn’t ding Os prospects because of age. It’s not like he’s been in AAA because of lack of performance. He’s been performing well there for a while, and from the taste he’s gotten in the majors, he’s performed well there too.
“We’re NOT buggin’ out!” Col. Sherman Potter.
(Phone rings and Radar hands it to Potter)
You know the rest.
You’re overvaluing the pitching market (arms will be cheaper, bats will be a premium at the deadline) and also saying the Orioles need to add another CY caliber type arm (they don’t). Also, the Padres got Cease with a 50, 45, 40 and a league avg reliever.
Arms will be cheaper? That is certainly…a take.
You keep making my point for me. Cease was coming off a down year with 4.00+ ERA estimators, 1mph off his FB, and only one more year of control than Burnes. He’d only ever had 1.5 good years. And yet he still cost the equivalent of Kjerstad, Cowser, and Norby without the BP arm.
Not for nothing, that BP arm was a 0.4WAR guy as a middle reliever with starter upside–basically peak Brian Baker.
I think if you take into account this offseason’s Rule V roster shuffle, there are actually a few players who must be traded now. So I think Norby is a good trade candidate. Kjerstad doesn’t, because Santander is going to be a FA, so room is going to be made there.
That same roster crunch is what may have contributed to Elias’ thinking on trading away Joey Ortiz and DL Hall.
The Os have no Rule 5 problem. Look it up or take my word. They have 4 prospects in their Top 30 that aren’t already on the 40 man and need to be added and two are Billy Cook and John Rhodes.
Seems like a desperate move after getting swept by the Astros.
Interesting your mind went to desperation. Seems to me he worked on what they wanted him to and met the challenge and it’s time to see what he can do in MLB. The results of a single series seem irrelevant.
Interesting your mind went to desperation.
– Why?
A slash line in the minors of: 0.304 / 0.386 / 0.526 is going to result in a slash line in the majors of: 0.249 / 0.317 / 0.431
Guy’s not going to be of assistance to the club.
Maton was only called up just in case Hyde needed a backup infielder in a pinch. He was a contingency plan, which Hyde is always accounting for, just like having a 3rd Catcher option. He wasn’t brought up to start or needing a bat.
He was only called up as backup for Westburg when he was day-to-day injury from collision with Soto. They couldn’t call up Norby because he was just sent down. So Westburg would have to had go on the IL for Norby to skip the 10-day cooldown period. Westburg’s proven he’s fine now.
The Orioles wanted the extra outfielder but had to option Stowers to AAA to get a bench infielder because Westburg was day to day. Now that Westburg they want that extra bench outfielder/pinch hitter spot back but they can’t bring Stowers back up for 10 days after moving him down so they went with Kjerstad.
@Os1995
Thanks for explaining, Os1995.
Who would you rather have on your roster? Nick Maton or Heston Kjerstad???
Wouldn’t read too much in this move. Basically it’s Juan Soto’s fault. He ran into Westburg last Tuesday. The Orioles weren’t sure if Westburg would be available Wednesday so they selected Maton’s contract and optioned Stowers. They didn’t want to option Stowers but they needed room on the roster to add Maton. In the event Westburg only missed one day. So Kjerstad is basically replacing Stowers who has to spend at least 10 days at Norfolk. So Kjerstad might only be in Baltimore until Friday when Stowers can be recalled.
I’d rather think Mike Elias is hoping this is permanent for Heston!
Why would the orioles want to keep Heston in AAAA purgatory by constantly calling him up and sending him down again
He’s already had to do this twice let’s hope he doesn’t need another go around with Norfolk
This has been the Orioles for the last several years. The taxi squad. Think about it, esp. since all of the Oriole affiliates are within driving distance of Camden Yards. The Os have been masters at using it and optionable players to make their lineups more flexible than their opponents. It’s made their bench and bullpen effectively have an extra 3-6 players. A 25-man roster becomes 30+.
And for the young prospects, it has become their proving ground, to force themselves onto the roster. You don’t want to yo-yo top prospects, but it does set up a mindset that they need to compete for their job to stay in the majors. Nothing is handed to them like they used to be in the previous regimes.
This is the first year when they don’t have as many optionable guys.
Mayo and Bencosme for Flaherty, Montero and Hamm. Something for now, something for later for both teams. Flaherty is not the same pitcher you had last year and is one of the top starters in the league so far. There’s your short term Bradish replacement. Mo term is in AAA and has been up this year and Hamm has looked like a find.
Sorry the Orioles aren’t trading Mayo!
Mayo gets a top of the rotation cy young pitcher why would the o’s use him to get someone as inconsistent as Flaherty
They bought him for Pennies last year because he performed like Pennies before and after the trade
Perhaps you should look at Flahertys stats this year. The stats of a top of the rotation starter. Last year they were not.
Which is the point! Can he be trusted? He’s a 2-3 month rental! You can have Jud Fabian and Frederick Bencosme.
I really like Fabian but too many SO’s. Beavers seems more stable when it comes to his overall hitting profile. The Tigers do currently have decent OFers with more in the minors but good hitters are good hitters.
I’d like them to seek out a good young SS and C. I saw a trade proposal for Flaherty to the Braves for a package with Nacho Alvarez who looks like a solid SS and they have a young catcher at AAA (forget his name) who looks like a good fit too. Arizona has Cerda (C), Torin (SS) and Barrosa (OF) who all look like the type of players that Harris/Greenberg would target. I really like those two combos the best.
Your suggestion is intriguing though. Cheers
Agree. They definitely aren’t trading Mayo for Flaherty. Personally I don’t fully buy his performance this year. If he would have played our strength of schedule, I wonder if he would have found similar success?
What is “your strength of schedule”? Did you look up who he actually pitched against this year?
I dont think Flaherty gets the tigers as much as you think he does. He is a rental with a spotty track record. Back end of the top 100 type prospect is my prediction as the centerpiece for a Flaherty deal.
A potential flaherty deal could look like the Aaron civale trade where the return is only a fringe top 100 prospect
Did Civale’s numbers ladt year match up with Flahertys this year?
Agree here.
Flaherty signed a pillow contract and is def a rental. Rental starters literally don’t command what you think they do. You’re lucky to get a former elite prospect, who has some issues to work through. They’re not going to command the multiple player packages centered around an elite prospect.
Last year we traded SP Seth Rom and INF Cesar Prieto for him during an off year, which turned very ugly later. Maybe he’s raised that value a touch, but he’s got to continue to perform this current level, and put in a full season to two more like this one to command huge value you’re looking for.
Does he need to pitch a few more seasons to command that type of value? He’s one of the top pitchers in all of MLB right now. Anyone who trades for a rental is trading for right now, not later. Your analogy to last year is off base and it sounds like last years poor results are what you are looking at.
Personally I’d be happy if the Tigers extended him and not make the mistake they did with not circling back to Lorenzen this past offseason. Lorenzen blossomed under Chris Fetter the pitching coach and so did Flaherty.
Mayo is 100% a top prospect but so was Spencer Torkelson, even more so than Mayo, and look where he is now. Prospects are just trade capital.
P.S. I don’t actually expect them to trade Mayo because I see a path to playing time for him at 1B/DH in Baltimore next year.
Yeah mayo has some insane potential with that power it’s just that 3rd is now locked up by westy and mayo is competing with the younger basallo on top of the Ryan’s
Personally I would think that the orioles keep mayo because they need more right handed bats since they are too lefty reliant
I agree. But…I didn’t just mention Flaherty, I also mentio Ed two pretty good pitching prospects.
It’s clear you want Mayo so badly and you want to move Flaherty. Montero and Hamm are your 13th and 17th prospects. That would place them 25 or above in the O’s system. They both are non-starters in a trade for Mayo.. A starter would be Jackson Jobe or Ty Madden!
Right because they would trade the second best pitching prospect in baseball behind Skenes for Mayo? No one would do that.
Madden yes, but his stats have not been great this year. I still like him a lot though and think he’ll be a good pitcher. Hamm’s have been very good and he was only drafted last year. Lots of upside with that kid. Baltimore is going to have to give up something good to replace Bradish and Flaherty’s numbers this year show he is the same type of pitcher. He’s only a rental but that won’t come cheap when the guy would get some Cy Young votes in the AL the way he’s pitched.
We both know Baltimore is going to just keep Mayo and get him at bats at 1B/DH next year. I don’t think they’d give him up in a trade. The question is should they though?
Sorry. But Flaherty’s not the same league as Bradish yet. Not saying he won’t be, but starts 1 thru 16 are different than starts 17-32 in a full year. Aces know how to get outs and have good starts in spite of wearing down and getting tired later in the season. You can’t just take the first half of a season, and just extrapolate over 3 more months. That’s not how it works.
Granted. To his credit, Flaherty’s having a great year, but he’s shown some vulnerabilities and inconsistencies the last few years to feel 100% confident that it wouldn’t regress by August. It’s just enough of a risk, that a team woldnt offer what they would for a healthy, say, Bradish. That said, this time next year, if somehow we were talking about trading Bradish, he wouldnt even be worth what he was this past offseason because of his own health worries.
Not all of the O’s prospects will live up to their hype. Cowser is Exhibit A. The jump from AAA to the big leagues is a chasm, as most rookies quickly discover. Every team’s top prospects look like sure-fire All Stars . . . until they go around the league once. Big league pitchers and big league hitters will expose rookies’ weaknesses within a few months, and only the truly gifted, like Gunnar and Adley, continue to stand out. Other teams’ scouts have seen the O’s top prospects and already know their strengths and weaknesses. Don’t expect a haul for some of these rookies, particularly since other teams know the O’s have a numbers problem.
Adley and Gunnar are in the Top 10 players in the game. If this is the end result for all their top prospects the rest of the league should fold!
Gunnar and Adley both has months-long adjustment periods to the majors too. Literally most prospects of every talent level has some adjustment period. You’re speaking as if Cowser’s been in the majors for a couple years
“What is clear that is Kjerstad doesn’t have much less to prove at the Triple-A level.”
Translation:
“What is clear is that Kjerstad doesn’t have much moreto prove at the Triple-A level.”
RF
“What is clear is that Kjerstad doesn’t have much moreto prove at the Triple-A level.”
Translation: What is clear is that Kjerstad doesn’t have much more to prove at the Triple-A level.”
Actually, the most likely typo is that they meant to write “doesn’t have much LEFT to prove”.
I can understand making one bad mistake in a sentence but he actually impressed me. He made two!
Garrett Crochet!
But no one wants to trade with the Sox gm
Crochet is going to need to be limited in innings but their gym is going to ask more huge prospects
Even Robert where he has an injury history and is not doing well this year but he’s gonna require as much if not more than Garrett
If their Gm has half a brain, he’ll figure it out, like he did when he sent Cease to the Padres.
What is clear that is Kjerstad doesn’t have much less to prove at the Triple-A level.
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He has 67 Ks in 213 ABs, which is 189 per 600. And more like 213/600 since his demotion. He could certainly improve on that, though 25 is a bit old to expect a lot of improvement.
He’s a little bit of a “young 25.”
Not to make excuses at all, but he missed 2 years due to the myocarditis issues around pandemic. He came back in force to rise the prospect ranks. But age-wise he was set back quite a bit. It’s not like he spent two years due to ineffectiveness. As soon as he was able to hit again, he flew thru the system. But I’m sure it affected his development, and not sure if he’s maxed out there yet. His strike zone judgment could improve surely
I’ve been thinking this too. Everyone keeps talking about players like Garret Crochet, who’s having an amazing year. But even assuming it continues, it’s like adding Kyle Bradish 2023 (with more strikeouts). By the time October looms, we would have to tail back the innings and maybe even put him in the pen—and beyond 2024, we may have to worry about health.
Does that actually help us with October? This potential trade, where we might deal elite prospects, is all about going deep into the playoffs. If it doesn’t help us there, it’s not worth dealing those prospects.
Crochet doesn’t become a FA til 2027, so you get two full years of him. Injuries, as O’s fans have certainly learned this year, are a chance you take. Yes, he could spend time in the BP. Just imagine his arm in the pen n the post-season! It’s why, I would get a 2nd starter at the deadline as well..
It’s precisely because of his two controllable years and that he’s a starter that would command a big prospect package. The thing is, if you’re dealing elite prospects, you’re not doing it to get a fallback bullpen option. The Os are looking for innings AND an arm to start the 3rd game of a playoff series.
If we have to eventually move Crochet to the pen, it doesn’t actually address the need. And by then, the Os would have used the premium prospect capital to acquire a bullpen arm. Having a late-inning pen arm is great to have, but it’s not really worth the elite package that a starter would command.
So Flaherty then 😉