2:20pm: Williams spoke to the Nationals beat and said while there’s no firm timetable for his return, he’ll be shut down from throwing entirely for at least the next two weeks (X link via MASNsport.com’s Mark Zuckerman). That effectively rules out any hope of a minimum 15-day stint on the injured list for the righty.
11:10am: The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve placed right-hander Trevor Williams on the 15-day injured list due to a strained flexor muscle in his right forearm. Left-hander DJ Herz has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester and will make his MLB debut when he starts tonight’s game.
Williams is in the midst of a career year at age 32, having pitched 56 1/3 innings of 2.22 ERA ball out of the Washington rotation. He’s achieved those results in spite of a below-average 21% strikeout rate and benefited from both a .270 average on balls in play and minuscule 3.3% homer-to-flyball rate — all of which signal the potential for regression. Nonetheless, Williams’ performance thus far has been a major driving factor behind the Nationals exceeding preseason expectations and hanging around an NL Wild Card race that is largely populated by sub-.500 clubs at the moment.
The Nats didn’t provide a timetable for Williams’ return. That he’s dealing with a muscle strain as opposed to a damaged flexor tendon is perhaps a silver lining, but that doesn’t preclude a notable absence in and of itself. Teammate Josiah Gray is dealing with the same injury and has been on the shelf for nearly two months at this point. All injuries cases are different, and we don’t know how the placement and severity of Williams’ strain compares to that of Gray, but Gray’s injury is evidence that Williams is hardly assured a swift return to the mound.
The timing of the injury is particularly poor for both the team and Williams himself. If Washington were to hang around and make a Wild Card push, one would presume a healthy Williams would play a notable role. Even if he saw his pristine ERA regress toward the vicinity of his 3.97 SIERA, he’d still be a useful veteran presence on the staff. And if the Nats were to fall well out of the postseason picture, it’s easy to envision Williams becoming a sought-after trade chip. His injury throws a wrench into both scenarios.
On a personal level, it’s also poorly timed for the pitcher himself. Wiilliams is playing out the second season of a two-year, $13MM contract and is slated to reach free agency at season’s end. He landed that $13MM guarantee in the 2022-23 offseason on the heels of a year spent primarily in a swingman role with the Mets. Had Williams reached the market a second time on the heels of a two-year run as a starter — the second season being a career-best performance — he’d have been in line for a more substantial payday, even heading into his age-33 season. It’s still possible he could return in a relatively timely manner, pitch well and reach that endgame, but the injury muddies his chances of doing so.
Turning to the 23-year-old Herz, he’ll get his first big league start less than a year after being acquired in the trade that sent Jeimer Candelario from the Nats to the Cubs. The 2019 eighth-rounder has had mixed results in the minors this year. On the one hand, his 3.75 ERA and 27.5% strikeout rate in Rochester are both strong marks. On the other, Herz has averaged just four innings per start and walked an astounding 19% of his opponents. Command has always been a weakness for the 6’2″ lefty; he’s never walked fewer than 13% of his opponents in a full season.
The Nats have already had one lefty make his MLB debut and greatly exceed expectations this season. They’ll hope that Herz can follow in the footsteps of teammate Mitchell Parker in that regard. Given the state of the rebuilding Nationals and the lack of other upper-minors pitching depth, Herz could have a fairly long runway to prove himself in the event that Williams and/or Gray remain sidelined for a significant period. Top prospect Cade Cavalli stands as one potential alternative, but he’s being monitored carefully in his return from 2023 Tommy John surgery. Prospect Jackson Rutledge and last season’s Rule 5 pick, Thaddeus Ward, are both on the 40-man roster in Rochester but both have ERAs north of 6.00 in Triple-A this season.
Dj Herz is a lefty? Mark Vientos smiles. I feel bad for Trevor he was having a great season.
I was looking forward to Trevor beating his old team the Mets.
The Mets never gave Williams enough credit for filling in admirably as a swingman when he was in New York.
Source?
One of the Candelario trade pieces from last year made it!
The cubs gave up a lot for a rental. I’m happy for DJ Herz though. I hope he stays with the Nats even when Trevor Williams returns off the IL.
I’ll definitely be rooting for him to do well.
At the same time, they also GOT a lot from the Mets for 2 months of Javy Baez (Pete Crow-Armstrong).
That’s true. Pca is a star in the making. One of my favorite things about pca is that he hones his defense after Javy Baez. Baez has fell off a cliff offensively but he’s still elite on defense. And he grew up as a CF as well.
Very true, the Cubs did get a haul – just in PCA – from the Mets, for Javy.
By now I hope a lesson is learned BY the Cubs, that most likely it will not pan out for the team that is trying to win now. And so often you end up watching the players you developed, go onto nice careers with another organization.
However because of the NTCs that someone in the Cubs FO handed out to Happ and Suzuki – the Cubs do have some redundancy with their young OFers, like Alcantara, Davis and maybe an IF er like Triantos. Although I’d hate to trade away Triantos. Im just hoping they don’t end up trading someone like Caissie.
Coincidentally, they also traded Trevor Williams along with Javy for PCA.
Suzuki us worth the no trade clause. Happ at most a ntc should’ve been an incentive if he got certain numbers like 20 HRs and 75 rbi in the first year of the 3 year extention. That would earn him a partial no trade(10-12 teams) if he did better his 2nd of 3 years then it could increase to a 20 ntc.
Herz is nasty. Should be fun to watch.
Averaging 7.5 walks per nine so maybe for opposing teams fans?
Don’t care. He’s still fun to watch, the stuff is good even if the control is wobbly at times.
its not just the control that is wobbly, herz himself has two personas on the mound. one that is calm, and trusts his stuff, and a more common jumpy, rushing mess of a pitcher. i like the projection due to his athleticism, but he has more than the physical attributes of the game to master.
If he could just figure out the walks he’ll be a back end rotation piece or at the very least a nice lefty out of the pen. Nasty stuff when he’s not walking guys every other AB.
And if I could just figure out how to get a million bucks, I’d be a millionaire.
Put as much as you can in your 401(k) and you’ll get there
Those sort of walk numbers rarely pan out. He may be able to fool some mlb hitters at first as the batters and staffs get used to his pitches, but once they figure out that and then take advantage of his wildness, it may be a rough time. I hope he does well but this seems like a rush job.
Good luck to D.J. Hopefully his walks don’t kill him cuz he is nasty. I loved watching him rise thru the cubs system and.Inmiss having him in our top prospect list.
National games be bumpin. Who needs walk in music. DJ Herz spins his own entry.
Williams did a good job for the Mets few years ago. Hope that he is able to return quickly.
Herz is in great shape. Rochester skipped his start a few games ago to address the walks issue.
Since then he’s made three starts, going 15.1 innings. In those three games he’s given up a total of 8 hits and 5 walks to go along with 23 strike outs.