Marlins closer Tanner Scott has already been drawing trade interest for several weeks, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post lists the Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Orioles as just some of the many teams showing interest in the hard-throwing lefty. Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic suggested this morning that Scott could be the next notable name to be moved — although that doesn’t necessarily indicate a trade of Scott is nearing the finish line. But the Marlins already showed their willingness to act early on the trade market when they moved Luis Arraez just five weeks into the season, and power bullpen arms are among the most sought-after commodities on the trade market every year.
That said, Scott alone isn’t likely to fetch the Marlins a sizable haul on his own. He clearly has trade value and should net some minor league talent, but the 29-year-old southpaw is in his final season of club control and will reach free agency at season’s end. The Marlins were willing to pay down nearly all of Arraez’s contract in their trade with the Padres, and doing so on Scott’s $5.7MM salary could help to enhance his appeal, but there are concerns even beyond the southpaw’s dwindling club control.
Command has always been an issue for the hard-throwing Scott, and 2024 is no exception. Quite the opposite, in fact. This year’s 16.8% walk rate is the highest of Scott’s career (excepting a 1 2/3-inning debut back in 2017). As noted here back in late May, he’s been slowly paring that number back since issuing an alarming swath of walks early in the season, but Scott has still walked 12% of his hitters dating back to May 1.
That’s not as troubling as a nearly 17% mark, but it’s still three percentage points higher than the average reliever — and the gap between that mark and last year’s career-best 7.8% mark is even wider. Scott has also seen his swinging-strike rate drop from a mammoth 17.4% in 2023 to 13.5% this year, while his opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate has fallen from 36.1% to 28.8% — a possible indicator that he’s missing by a much larger margin when he’s failing to find the strike zone.
To Scott’s credit, he’s been on an exceptional run of late. He surrendered a walk-off home run to Mets designated hitter J.D. Martinez yesterday, but those two runs were the first he’d allowed since April 30. Dating back to May 1, Scott has a minuscule 1.17 earned run average and huge 32.8% strikeout rate in 15 1/3 innings. Overall, the lefty touts a 1.93 ERA, 26.1% strikeout rate and 52.5% grounder rate in 28 innings this year (in addition to that bloated 16.8% walk rate). He’s also averaging 96.9 mph on his heater.
Scott’s trade value would surely have been higher in the offseason, when he had a full year of club control and was fresh off a 33.9% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate in a career-high 78 innings. But the Marlins made the playoffs last year, and even after turning over their front office and largely idling throughout the winter, presumably wanted to see if the team could play its way back into postseason contention. A catastrophic 1-11 start to the season emphatically answered that question.
The Marlins could potentially package Scott with another trade candidate, such as coveted starter Jesus Luzardo, and look to extract a huge package by combining two sought-after players in a single trade. They could also hope that by moving Scott early, they can catch lightning in a bottle in the same manner that the Royals did last summer by moving Aroldis Chapman in late June — a trade that netted them current No. 1 starter Cole Ragans. (To be clear, Ragans was seen as a buy-low candidate at the time, and the Royals deserve credit for completely turning the former first-round pick’s career around.) Hitting that kind of jackpot almost certainly won’t happen, but that trade is illustrative of the fact that Miami could potentially get some MLB-ready help in return for Scott — provided the player in question is viewed as something of a project.
With regard to the teams linked to Scott, any of the bunch is a sensible target. The Yankees load up on bullpen arms every deadline they’re in contention, and they’ve regularly shown an affinity for ground-ball pitchers and power lefties. Scott checks both boxes. The Orioles know Scott better than any team in the game, having originally drafted and developed him — only to trade him to Miami in a deal they’d like to take back (Kevin Guerrero and Antonio Velez went to Baltimore in the deal). Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is always intrigued by high-end velocity and doesn’t need much help in the rotation right now, making a deeper bullpen a logical focus. The Dodgers have several notable relievers on the injured list at the moment (Brusdar Graterol, Joe Kelly, Ryan Brasier) and lack this type of flamethrowing left-handed presence in their current bullpen.
There’s some overlap between the clubs eyeing Scott and those reportedly eyeing White Sox closer Michael Kopech, which is only natural. Playoff hopefuls always look to beef up the relief corps around the trade deadline, and with so few sellers on the market at the moment, the few teams that are willing to deal should see increased demand.
The Cubs? They have been rumored since May…
They are about to be sellers
Neva!!
Who are they going to sell? Tauchman?
It won’t be a catcher lol
If you had to make a list of guys who will definitely be traded by the end of July, which seems like something this site would do or has done, he would be at the top of the list.
Likely going to see the same team names popping up hunting the same talent heading into the trade deadline.
I could see the Rangers making a play.
I wish the Nats would/could trade Tanner Rainey for him so that his legacy could become the only player named “Tanner” to be traded for another player named “Tanner”… twice.
I remember while pitching for the Orioles, I referred to him as cardiac Scott!
He definitely contributes to the cardiolgy industry with providing more customers – among fans and team personnel.
Marlins need to hurry up and trade him before he regresses.
You mean it can get worse?
Hard pass. 16.8% walk rate is a negative.
Frequent pass, more like.
@ButCanHePitch
I would argue Scott’s worth a flyer, given that he’s a regressing rental and likely won’t cost the LADS a prospect that anyone has even heard of, let alone covets.
Seems more likely that Scott gets thrown into a Luzardo deal, as a way to extract an better prospect as an added bonus….
@ButCanHePitch
Shhhh…stop drawing people’s attention to this fact. As a Marlins fan, I prefer to tell trade suitors for Tanner Scott that he doesn’t walk hitters 83.2% of the time…and avoid talking about BSV rate as I prefer pointing out that he has saved 100% of the games he hasn’t blown.
No surprises with that list of interested teams. Although, seeing the Phillies on there is interesting. While they need late inning bullpen help, they need righties. Strahm has been one of the best RPs in baseball this year and Alvarado is their current de facto closer. They traded for Gregory Soto last year. While he hasn’t been great, he’s still a good weapon. Wonder if this means they’re open to moving him? Just doesn’t seem likely a team will carry 4 relievers in the bullpen for the regular season.
Best bet is to get on pitching now instead of later. With the focus on velo and spin rate, more injuries are going to crop up. Jordan Wicks of the Cubs went down today. And Kyle Bradish left the O’s game with forearm tightness and some think he’s done for the year.
As injuries pile up and teams get desperate, prices will get higher. But it makes sense that regardless, Scott isn’t getting any major pieces back in a deal. So holding onto him and packaging him with Luzardo to a team that may be desperate, like the O’s, Padres, or maybe a team like the Twins could happen.
Great, the suckers…I mean…potential trade partners are lining up!
In the end, Tanner Scott’s biggest contribution to the Marlins will end up being the trade return he gets us. And I’m saying this with a ‘site unseen’ view.
Last year continues to look like a huge outlier in Scott’s career. I couldn’t believe he ever put it together but I can’t trust his control.
I doubt the O’s are truly interested.
He only did it for half a season as a Closer last year. Puk had the first half.
For me, the problem with Scott is all mental. What many of the people that state that anyone can close fail to see is that some guys have all the physical tools, but can’t handle the pressure. And it can be seen in their demeanor, body language and eyes. Any time you see Scott on the mound in a high-leverage situation, you see the fear in his eyes, and you see the body language all the way, even into his pitching motion through the release. For all of us mere mortals, we don’t understand how a guy with the gift to blow a fastball pass anyone is fearful of pitching in the strikezone, but Scott is. He constantly pitches in a way to not get hit. When it’s a low-leverage situation, he comes in and pounds the strikezone, blowing fastballs pass bats in the middle of the strikezone. But the very second it’s a big situation, he starts trying to pick the corners and starts missing by alot because he clearly wants to make sure he doesn’t make a mistake pitch that dips to the heart of the plate. And he also starts avoiding his fastball as he throws everything else. It’s crazy when you see a guy with his stuff who doesn’t trust it after so many years.
Scott has the tools to be a Closer, but will never be one because he doesn’t have the mental and testicular fortitude to be one.
To add a creative take on this, for those of us that know our baseball movies, there is one fictional baseball player I think of that can make the point about Tanner Scott’s career issues. That fictional player is Taka Tanaka from Major League II. Anyone that remembers the “you have no marbles” moment he had with Pedro Cerrano, that would apply if Taka Tanaka was Tanner Scott’s teammate too.