The Rays enter tonight’s series finale against the Cubs sitting at the bottom of the AL East. They’re 32-36, within two games of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, but any chance they have of keeping pace with the Yankees and Orioles is gone. The Rays are four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League with four teams between them and the Twins.
While that deficit is hardly insurmountable, the Rays have played more poorly than their record indicates. They’ve been outscored by 63 runs, a worse run differential than the Angels’ -60 mark. Only the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, and A’s — very likely the four worst teams in the majors — have been outscored by more than Tampa Bay has. The Rays are in the bottom third of the league in batting average and on-base percentage. Only the White Sox and Miami have a worse slugging output. Tampa Bay’s rotation is 20th in ERA; their bullpen is 23rd.
With that level of play around the roster, it’s fairly remarkable that they’re only four games under .500. That’s mostly attributable to a 12-5 record in one-run games. That’s not a pace that most teams can sustain over the course of a season, and it’s not as if the Rays have had a lights-out bullpen locking down every small lead.
As deadline season approaches, the Rays have played like a team that looks like it won’t have much choice but to sell. They certainly haven’t resembled a club that has made five straight trips to the postseason and was one of the best in the American League en route to 99 wins last year. Some measure of regression was probably inevitable. Tampa Bay entered the season without three of its top starters in Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen. They traded their ace (Tyler Glasnow) before his final year under contract. Wander Franco had been the team’s best position player. There was no way to completely replace the production they were losing at shortstop with Franco on administrative leave while he faces sexual abuse charges in the Dominican Republic.
All that said, the front office probably didn’t anticipate the team struggling to this extent. Their issues go beyond the players who aren’t available. Randy Arozarena is hitting .174/.282/.317 over 266 plate appearances. Yandy Díaz won a batting title and finished sixth in AL MVP voting last season. He has a league average .255/.315/.375 slash line in a team-leading 295 trips to the plate. Harold Ramírez had a .313/.353/.460 showing in 122 games a year ago. He hit .268/.284/.305 with only one homer in 48 contests before being designated for assignment last week. Brandon Lowe missed six weeks with an oblique strain and hasn’t hit well in the 27 games he’s played.
There are similar stories on the pitching side. The Rays acquired Aaron Civale last summer to stabilize their injury-riddled rotation. The righty has been tagged for a 5.20 ERA across 14 starts. Zach Eflin has been solid — a 4.06 mark through 12 outings — but hasn’t performed at the level that earned him a sixth-place finish in last year’s Cy Young balloting. Pete Fairbanks had a few rocky outings early in the season (although he’s found his form since returning from the injured list in mid-May). Phil Maton, signed to pitch in a high-leverage role, has been hit hard.
Opposing teams have taken notice. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that other clubs are monitoring in case Tampa Bay decides to orchestrate a deadline sell-off. Rosenthal lists Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Díaz as potential buy-low targets for other teams. That trio, not coincidentally, are three of the four highest-paid players on the Tampa Bay roster.
Rosenthal reports that the Rays have yet to seriously entertain selling, hoping the team will show signs of a turnaround. There’s still time for that to happen before the July 30 deadline. The Rays’ record in one-run games may not be sustainable, but it has prevented them from falling completely out of the playoff mix. The team hasn’t played well, yet there’s clearly more talent on the roster than they’ve shown through two-plus months.
Still, the Rays presumably won’t have qualms about moving veteran pieces if things do not improve over the next six weeks. Tampa Bay’s front office is accustomed to dealing stars even while the team is in contention, building a talent pipeline that generally keeps them competitive despite bottom five payrolls.
Arozarena is making $8.1MM in his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Lowe is making $8.75MM in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. The team holds successive options at $10.5MM and $11.5MM (with a $1MM buyout) for the next two years. The Rays just extended Díaz during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $8MM salary this year and will make $10MM next season. Tampa Bay holds a $12MM option for the ’26 campaign.
While no one from that group is playing up to their previous standards, they’d each have appeal on the trade market. Arozarena, who had been a well above-average hitter in every season before this one, would net a particularly strong haul. Díaz is a limited defender, but he combined for a .314/.406/.475 slash line between 2022-23. His $10MM salary for 2025 is still below market value. Lowe should have the lowest trade value of the group given his injury history, but he’s one of the game’s better offensive second basemen at his best. While the Rays are probably trending toward declining next season’s $10.5MM option, it provides some contractual upside if Lowe finds his stride in the second half.
The players of intrigue go beyond that trio of potential rebound targets. Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been the team’s best player in 2024. He’s raking at a .291/.371/.479 clip and should be on pace for his first All-Star nod. Paredes owns a .245/.341/.469 batting line in more than 1200 plate appearances since the Rays pulled him from the Tigers in the Austin Meadows trade. He’s playing on a $3.4MM salary this year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player.
Paredes is under team control through 2027. The Rays would need a huge haul to seriously entertain moving him, but there’s some chance with top third base prospect Junior Caminero waiting in the wings. Eflin is due $11MM this season (making him the highest-paid player on the team) and will collect $18MM next year. There’d be a lot of interest at that price point for a quality mid-rotation starter. Tampa Bay could get a modest return for Amed Rosario as a solid multi-positional player on a $1.5MM salary. There’d be varying levels of interest in Fairbanks, Jason Adam, Garrett Cleavinger and Shawn Armstrong among contenders seeking bullpen depth.
They def should trade Parades they’d get a ton
Do want Cleveland did. Just make some moves & keep pieces that will help the following year or next. Just because 1 year doesn’t go as planned doesn’t mean next season won’t.
fl – That’s very true, but the combination of losing Glasnow and Franco along with the sucking of Randy & Yandy is really why they are below .500 so if Randy & Yandy can turn things around they will be okay but still won’t be much more than a 87-win team.
These articles are way too premature though, teams around .500 have another month and a half before needing to decide what direction to go in.
Losing Glas and Franco definitely hurts, but this season cannot be pinned on just those two players not being Rays. Afterall, Pepiot has pitched well in Glasnow’s place (not at Glasnow’s level of course), making his loss much less of a hit to the W/L column. You can blame this season on the Rays being down top starters McClanny, Springs, Rasmussen and Baz, and their rotation struggling as a result. Or you can blame the slow start off most of the Rays’ big bats starting the year injured (B.Lowe and J.Lowe) or ice cold (Diaz and Aroz). All 4 are heating up and playing. better now. The Pen has absolutely sucked and there’s no excuse there. Add it all up and this just ain’t the Rays’ year. They may be close to .500, but as the article pointed out, that record is built on smoke and mirrors. This has been a bad team and the RFO would be wise to sell anyone who won’t be a Ray next year (e.g., Eflin, Civale, maybe Littell, Armstrong, Maybe Adam and Poche, Rosario, Arozarena, and maybe Diaz and B.Lowe.
Still only about 4 games out of the 3rd WC spot. Springs will be back by sometime July. If Randy is still struggling by then a trade out of Randy & another OF acquisition could be a move the Rays decide to make. Let’s hope for a 5-4 roadtrip at worst & a improvement in the W/L record at home going forward.
Rays in early May won about 10 out of 12 games before their recent skid. Josh Lowe was their best 2 strike hitter last season (& he was a 20/20 guy for them) has just started to stay healthy. Paredes has cooled off hitting HRs during this recent skid. That will change. Brandon Lowe is streaky but he is capable of getting into a groove at the plate. Diaz should improve at the plate the rest of the season. With Springs coming back in July a top 3 of Elfin, Little & Springs is very good. Unless a team offers up a good trade package by the deadline keeping this team intact should strongly be considered (both WS teams were WC teams). The Rays will have the offseason to make necessary trades. Randy is the biggest WC & concern. Like I said in a earlier comment if Randy is still struggling a trade out of him & another OF coming in could be made by the Rays. There is still over a month before the trade deadline.
Tampa Bay has taught the league how to do this.
no, they won’t. High BABIP, below average defense, bad character.
“Bad character” WTF are you talking about??? Paredes is the exact opposite of someone with bad character.
Talked bad about Detroit players and managers when he got traded. Cares too much about individual stats, and he said he wanted to meet trump
You sure are a liberal.
Just railroad anyone that supposedly says something you don’t like…..and of course you weren’t there to hear what they actually said, but that shouldn’t stop you from communicating it to others as if it’s the truth.
Oh good, we are bringing politics into baseball. I’m sure that will help.
The last part has zero to do with baseball. Next you’ll say a guy has an attitude problem because of his haircut and gold chain. You’re old-school uptight, Steve.
Skenes – I bet his auto insurer is Progressive.
Yeah he probably hated on Houck, Duran and Sale for not getting the vax.
they’ll approach it one day at a time, I bet.
They need to flip the team. Cubs have a top farm and Morel is a hack at 3B. Parades came up as a Cub until traded to Det. So Jed should know about him pretty well.
The only guys that I see being off limits are PCA, Horton and Brown.
With that and moving some other players to contenders with needs they push the fast track turn around that they need to do this year
Cubs and Rays are both weak on offense and in the bullpen…who exactly would the Cubs trade for Paredes? I do not disagree in theory, but in reality? The two teams are quite similar in many respects.
The Cubs have a lot to trade from the farm which is what the Rays would want. I was talking about this trade yesterday, Paredes would be what the Cubs could really use. I’d think something like …
Alcantara
Triantos
B. Davis
Drew Gray
It’s a lot but it would take a lot to get him.
No way would I give that much up. Not a chance.
You’re dreaming if you think that trade package is anywhere close to what it will take for Paredes. Sorry guys, but you’re talking about adding a player with 3.5 years of control, making less than $3MM this year and on pace for 5-6 WAR. He’s going to cost more than 1 top prospect and some pocket change.
You just don’t know top prospects then? Alcantara is a top 100 prospect, Triantos is a top 100 prospect, Davis was until he got injured and is starting to get back to that form, and Gray is a GREAT pitcher and will be shooting up the prospect charts. You should do some research before talking about prospects and looking foolish.
LOL. Always people on both sides of the fence. You have to give up prospects to get good talent. None of those guys are MLB proven talent and almost no prospects work out. Go look at the turn over or former top prospect lists.
Cubs have outfielders and the Rays need outfielders. Cassie and Alcantara sounds about right. I don’t think the Rays have any desire to trade Paredes unless it’s a haul.
Agreed. Cubs are going to have to offer both a top bat and a top arm to even be invited to the negotiations.
Paredes is a very good player but the Rays have Cameniro waiting in the wings. I think Caissie, Alcantara, Davis, and Gray constitutes a haul.
Dude, stop posting. Alcantara is the #51 top prospect in all of baseball, Triantos is the #58 top prospect in all of baseball, Drew Gray is the #10 prospect in the Cubs system (many consider to be either the first or second best system in baseball), and Davis is a top 30 player in the Cubs system. This would be a HAUL for Paredes.
I’d move Brown. He’s a 2 pitch pitcher who might be very good in the bullpen. But I don’t feel he’s starting material.
Ben Brown currently has a 3.58 ERA. You knew who else is a two pitch pitcher? Steele. Brown is a VERY good starter.
Looking at some of the contracts they have on the books they appear to have a window to win through 2026 and then they would need a reboot of some kind. The only guy I see as a good trade candidate for them is Efflin. Arozarena, Lowe, Diaz and Civale could all probably perform better than they have and all could have more value in the future even with less team control. Efflins 18 million os not something they will want to pay. Regardless of the return I think they deal him.
Eflin is as good as gone, indeed. Many predicted this when they signed him last year!
Yeah it’s the backloaded contract like Glasnow had. I think he might have negative trade value as of today but it’s close to neutral imo. One way or another he’s gone before 2025.
Eflin is on pace for 3 WAR this year and a team trading for him gets him for 2 post-seasons. He definitely has decent trade value.
It’s more like a 2 to 2.5 win pace. 11 million this year but 18 million next year. He probably has a small amount of positive trade value but not a lot.
baseballtradevalues.com and last year’s huge overpays for pitchers would suggest you’re wrong on his trade value. As for his WAR, I’m extrapolating from his per game WAR, not season long WAR, as he missed 3 games due to a convenient IL stint that coincided with another pitcher getting healthy. Either way – between 2.5 and 3.0 fWAR is a valuable mid-rotation arm at the Deadline..
I think they should gut and sell. Braves could use a few of their piece but lord the ones I’d like are having rough years
Even if they won the World Series this year, they absolutely would’ve traded most of Arozarena, Diaz, Lowe, Litell, Eflin, Fairbanks, etc over the offseason. Just like they traded Snell after making the World Series. But now that they’re most likely going to miss the postseason, they have a perfect excuse to cut bait on those guys at the deadline. Which will continue the cycle of developing cheap talent and trading them for more cheap talent as soon as they make too much in arb. The rays cycle is inevitable, but I don’t remember them having this many “expensive” players at the same time. They usually only have one or two, but I could see as many as 5 or 6 getting traded within the next year. It’ll be interesting to see if they go full scorched earth at the deadline or wait until the offseason.
Arozarena to Philly
Rice-a-Roni for a bag of peanuts
Rays are going to do what they always do: trade players that are approaching free agency, that are becoming “too expensive” for arbitration or that can bring in a couple of high end prospects that can immediately help the big league team. Which more often than not, not always, they fleece the other team.
I blame wander
“Not all who wander are lost”, but in his case it looks like Franco’s MLB career is indeed lost.
It’s only natural to Wander what could have been. Too bad he didn’t just wander and he indulged.
He found his Wanderwall.
Wander off to the minors
With the arms returning next year the Rays need to have a lineup that can score runs and win games. They are in a soft sell situation with an opportunity to shed a little payroll.
I wouldn’t be so sure. They have put their eggs in that basket before, but if you’re a Rays fan, you know they all won’t be healthy by OD. The Rays lack serious depth in their pitching and their supposed high-ranked prospects are flubbing in the majors. I mean, they won’t even let Pinto play and prefer to have ALEX JACKSON and Ben Rortvedt play… Possibly the worst tandem in the league. Yet Pinto sits in Durham because he needs more ‘seasoning’. The Rays never give themselves the chance to be good because they always keep their best players down until they can’t any longer. They deserve to be bad for a loooong time the way they operate.
That’s why you set up for 2025.
They don’t have enough pieces to be a serious competitor in 25 either though. Even if Caminero makes the roster (he probably won’t because the Rays Way) who else can they call up, sign on a reasonable contract, or trade for to improve the offense? Offense is and has always been the biggest issue. The last few years were outliers and lost their lister when they have to play the best teams in the postseason… It’s probably time for a full rebuild. Keep a few guys around and build through the draft.
That’s why you set up for 2025.
The pieces to contend are by trading a select few players from the current team for ready-now prospects, give them the rest of 2024 to gain playing experience.
Now, that could change based on 2024 play. Then the Rays can allow certain guys having an off-year to pad their stats in 2024, trade them in the offseason. Look, you can full rebuild but the Rays don’t need to completely tear it down immediately. This can be drawn out.
And other than Caminero, AAA Durham is kinda empty right now. They have had a great run at AAA going back to 2017 (a bunch of 85-55 type of years) but they are decidedly average this year. Most of the better prospects are still at AA or lower.
The Rays rarely trade for MLB-ready players so even if they trade a bunch of guys this year I expect them to trade for guys in Single-A or AA ball. Then they will find inadequate replacements in other teams’systems (Caballero/Siri/Deluca type guys) that are cheap and controllable and cross their fingers. I bet Junior doesn’t make the OD roster either as they’ll ask him to spend time in AAA more to get back on track before calling him up.
I mean, yeah I sure would like to be an optimist about where this team is going but it seems pretty bleak… And all our high-end prospects are also struggling so it doesn’t seem like there’s any immediate relief coming soon.
I’d probably keep Paredes and Arozarena and maybe JLowe. Everyone else can pretty much be sent off for prospects.
Sometimes you have to swallow your pride and be realistic. The Rays, Sox and Jays aren’t going anywhere. Even if one of them slips into the post-season, they’re getting their clocks cleaned. Build for the future.
Blue Jays are probably going to hold out, Red Sox might sell, and the Rays aren’t into having pride, they will sell if things stay like this.
They are way too into pride! They had a whole night for it a few games ago!
The Rays have gotten their clocks cleaned the last two postseasons! This year is no different.
Jays are in-denial because they believe their top pitchers can shut any team down. They are correct. However, any team’s mid-starter can shut down the Jays.
Jays have a bullpen problem too.
Unless they are willing to empty the cupboard with the prospects they struggle to properly develop, it’s time to sell.
I think the rays will sell off a number of guys. The problem is so many of them are struggling and selling low may not be the best idea.
Considering their payroll and the consistent quality of their division the Rays have been competitive for a shockingly long amount of time. I don’t think anyone could fault a short rebuild period.
Rays will be very good pitching wise next two years with the return of all their pitchers late this season and clanny early in 25. Junior is needed up to provide more thump in middle of the lineup. With that said it’s time to bring up some young talent to see what they have. I would trade some vet pieces but not breakup the core for a run next season
The Rays could conceivably go on a run in the second half once they get some key pitchers back from injury. Playing for the last wild card probably isn’t the best course of action though since they’re notoriously low spenders. A small retool at the deadline is their best bet
What in the hell is wrong with Arozarena? The guy has been a stud and all of a sudden this year he’s a dud.
He screwed up his swing in last years HR Derby and hasn’t figured it out since.
Hard to win when the entire roster except Paredes is having a season long slump. Highly unusual. Don’t think that they won’t turn this around to some extent.
The other part of the problem for Tampa is that their AAA team at Durham is finally mediocre for the first time in the last 8 years, especially their pitching. The AAA team was the source of the constant 40-man roster churn as well as the occasional trade chip such as Jake Cronenworth.
There aren’t any obvious pieces left besides Junior Caminero where you would say “oh once he gets here he will contribute.” So the other reason to start selling guys is to refill the system, which a small market team like Tampa desperately needs.
Yup. The team that was at the top of the minors for oh so long finally crashed. They have no pitching and they kept guys in AAA too long that they’re past their peak. The Rays are also dreadful at drafting and have been for a while. Their commitment to manipulate service time hurts the development of players like Aranda/Mead/JLowe and lots of the lost injured pitchers like McKay/Honeywell (and probably Baz).
This team needs more than just a change in roster. It needs a complete overhaul from the ground up. Coaches/GMs/etc… A new owner would be VERY beneficial for the team.
Absolutely right about the owner. If this losing continues, he’s going to be exposed as the greedy jerk who is just in it for profit that he is. Rays in the Bay is one of the smartest Rays fans on this site. Wish more of them were like that and would call out the owner for his non spending ways.
Appreciate the support . Definitely not smart, but an absolute realist. The Rays have lived off strong pitching and streaky offenses for too long. This year it was exposed that when they don’t get the lucky peaks from a few players, they are really mediocre. I still believe Arozarena and Diaz and JLowe can turn it around, but the other guys I think are on their descent out of the league.
The front office also prioritizes trying to find the next Ben Zobrist army knife player, and have ended up with a bunch of AAAA types. Brujan, Mastrobuoni, Jones, Edwards… They have managed to unload them on other teams, but it’s a running theme.
Yup. They don’t want to invest in a pure positional player because they don’t make as good trade bait. So they move these guys all around the diamond and it only dilutes their comfort in the field and at home plate. Sometimes you gotta simplify the development so they can focus on their true position.
Tigers should take a run at Arozarena and Paredes. Ship Baddoo, Jung and pitching not named Jobe the other way.
umm no. He is overrated and due a huge payday. He also talked cr@p about Detroit.
Which one Paredes or Arozarena?
Parades.High BABIP,below average D,low walks
It’s always scary trading with TB to begin with.
I’d love to see Arozarena in Detroit. I know he’s having a bad year but he is exciting to watch. The Tigers have enough minor league pitching to entice TB if the Ray’s are out if it. He’s not a clear fit if everyone is healthy with Greene and Carp/Canha/Malloy on the corners/DH and Perez (and Meadows) in CF but Greene could play CF and Perez could go to the bench.
detroitnews.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2022/05/18…
He absolutely did not not talk ill of Detroit. He actually said he was thankful for the time spent with Tigers…
Detroit has earned the right to be spoken about in a negative manner.
Regardless if that were true or not, Paredes did not speak in a negative manner in regards to Detroit.
Is there any proof that Wander had a relationship with a girl under 16? Isn’t 14 legal there?
There’s a ton of evidence that Wander had a relationship with a 14 year old when he was in his 20s, and that he paid the girl’s mother to allow the relationship.
Aroz had an awful start to the year, hitting 39 wRC+ in March and April. Since May 1st, he’s been hitting more like himself (though not completely) – .203/.336/.390 (117 wRC+). He hit between 124 and 127 wRC+ each of the past 3 years, so 117 wRC+ is close to his normal. There will definitely be a market for him if the Rays make him available in trade, but I suspect they’ll get a better return in the offseason. 50-50 he gets traded at the deadline if the Rays decide to sell. .
I wouldn’t mind seeing CLE take a run at bringing Civale back. They could use him in the rotation for sure. Guardians have more than enough excess in the minors the Rays could use.
The Rays would bite too, they are always willing to move guys if an offer is enticing enough.
Civale is getting moved before OD25 for sure. If Cleveland wants him back, I’m sure the Rays will be happy to oblige.
They’ve moved on from Civale, though Josh Naylor would love having his buddy back. If you recall, when Civale was traded, there was almost a mutiny in the clubhouse, and the team promptly got no-hit the next game.
Paredes is a nice fit for what the M’s need; adequate at 3rd with a heavy bat. Add a healthy Spring and I could see a package of Clase, Emerson H and assorted Lakes & Palmers to make it fit…
Strong cases can be made for TB to be a seller or buyer but it would be tough to be a seller when your organization is asking a community to contribute over a billion dollars to build a stadium. Right or wrong, that is a factor. The one thing the TB FO has proven they do well is honestly assess their own players and if a deal brings added value they’ll pull the trigger. They have the benefit of a lot of team options so they’re not in a corner for long. This will work itself out. The exciting thing to think about is where the next wave of infielders will play because they’re close. Camineiro, C. Williams, Isaac and maybe even Mead.