Brewers owner Mark Attanasio spoke to reporters, including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, about a variety of topics prior to last night’s game in Milwaukee. Perhaps most noteworthy of those topics was the future of shortstop Willy Adames, who is currently slated to hit free agency following the 2024 campaign. Attanasio was candid about the fact that the club made “plenty of offers” to Adames throughout the offseason in hopes of retaining him on a long-term deal. While Attanasio did not provide further details on those offers, his comments appeared to suggest that he does not have confidence in his ability to keep Adames in Milwaukee long term at this point.
“He’s the best,” Attanasio said of Adames, as relayed by Hogg. “…Willy’s performance got to a point where it would be – we’ll see what happens after the season – but he’s going to command quite a significant package as a free agent.”
Attanasio certainly isn’t wrong to suggest that Adames has increased his stock with his play so far this season. The 28-year-old had generally established himself as an above-average shortstop on both sides of the ball entering the 2023 campaign, with a .255/.322/.448 slash line (110 wRC+) to go with a whopping 10 Outs Above Average during the 2022 campaign. While 2023 saw Adames maintain those top-of-the-scale defensive metrics at shortstop, his offense took a significant step back.
Despite career best strikeout (25.9%) and walk (11.1%) rates last season, Adames posted a career-worst 94 wRC+ while slashing a paltry .217/.310/.407 in 638 trips to the plate last year. That lackluster production was primarily due to Adames suffering a bit of a power outage. While his 64 home runs and 78 doubles between the 2020-22 campaigns gave him a healthy .220 isolated slugging across those three campaigns, 2023 saw that figure drop to just .190 as he slugged just 24 homers and 29 doubles. That combined with a career-worst .259 batting average on balls in play left Adames as a below average bat overall last year, raising some questions about his ability to command a significant deal this winter.
Fortunately for Adames, he’s largely put those concerns to bed with his performance in the first third of the 2024 campaign. He’s maintained the positive trends in terms of plate discipline from last year, sporting a healthy 10.4% walk rate while cutting his strikeouts down to just 20.7% of the time. On top of that, his .197 ISO suggests his power production is trending in the right direction, as does his hard-hit rate rebounding from just 36.1% last year to 40.7% so far this season. All that has left Adames with a solid .256/.335/.453 slash line (125 wRC+) to go with his best wOBA (.346) since 2021.
What’s more, it’s possible there’s even more offensive potential in Adames’s performance he has yet to tap into as indicated by his career-best .362 xwOBA. That figure is tied with Bryce Harper for 33rd among all qualified hitters this year, placing Adames’s expected production in the same stratosphere as elite infielders like Matt Olson and Rafael Devers. Even if Adames doesn’t end up reaching those heights this year, his current production at the plate in conjunction with defense at shortstop that has ranked in the 96th percentile or better of qualified fielders in each of the past three seasons is sure to make him among the most enticing infielders available this winter.
In the meantime, Adames has helped lead the Brewers to a command 6.5 game lead over the field in the NL Central as they’ve posted a 35-23 record to this point in the season. With such a solid lead in the division, one would be forgiven for assuming that Adames will remain in Milwaukee at least through the end of the 2024 campaign as the club continues to push towards its sixth playoff appearance in seven seasons. GM Matt Arnold indicated to reporters (including Hogg) during the conversation with Attanasio that nothing is guaranteed ahead of the trade deadline this summer, however, as he declined to say that the club’s star shortstop would be off the table this July.
“From my perspective you can never close the door on anything, but he is the heartbeat of our team in a lot of ways,” Arnold said, as relayed by Hogg. “Always want to stay open minded but also recognize the value that he brings to us everyday.”
If the Brewers were to collapse over the next two months, it would hardly be a surprise to see a budget-conscious club that prefers to avoid rebuilding and attempt to contend in perpetuity shop Adames around in hopes of finding longer term assets who could help the club win in the future. It’s much trickier to decipher whether they would seriously consider parting ways with Adames at the deadline if they remain firmly in the playoff picture, however. The Brewers famously dealt Josh Hader to the Padres at the trade deadline while in contention back in 2022, and the loss of the club’s closer surely helped to contribute to the 29-31 record from August 1 onward that left them on the outside looking in during the postseason that year.
On the other hand, the two prospects Milwaukee acquired in the deal, outfielder Esteury Ruiz and lefty Robert Gasser, have both gone on to contribute to the big league club in big ways this season. The Brewers flipped Ruiz during the 2022-23 offseason in order to land catcher William Contreras in a three-team deal with the Braves and A’s, and Contreras has since broken out as one of the league’s very best catchers. As for Gasser, the 25-year-old rookie has looked nothing short of dominant in four starts with the Brewers this season, posting a sterling 1.96 ERA and 2.52 FIP in 23 innings of work.
Given the major success the club has enjoyed in turning the prospects from that deal into production at the big league level less than two years later, it stands to reason that Milwaukee brass would at least consider parting ways with Adames if they felt they could reasonably replace his production down the stretch and come out ahead in the long term. On the other hand, the club’s struggles in 2022 following the Hader trade highlight the risks involved in such a maneuver and could leave Arnold’s front office reluctant to run the same risk just two seasons after it potentially cost the Brewers a postseason berth.
The Brewers are in first place. I don’t see them trading him away.
I was in Boston for Hader’s last pitch as a Brewer in 2022. Thought the same thing then, too. This is really the only way to operate without deep pockets. Don’t be shocked if they do trade him. They won’t be able to replace his production, but two or three people in return can make the team better, especially if there’s rotation help coming back.
Yes that is true they did that and if I recall they were in first place at the time of the trade. Then they played poorly and missed the playoffs. Yes they got some good prospects for Hader but they cost themselves a shot at winning it all that year.
What are we talking here? Hader was in very high demand. Who wants Adames and what are they giving up for him?
The Dodgers would love him. Move Mookie back to second, and have Willy at 3rd. Back up the Brinks truck for him and toss the Brewers a couple of prospects.
I suggested last offseason the Brewers trade Adames for Lux. Lux is from Wisconsin and was a good bounce back candidate. But he hasn’t bounced back Adames has and the Brewers are in first place. So that deal makes no sense anymore.
If Willy is at 3rd then where does muncy go?!?!
It should be muncy 3rd Adames SS mookie 2nd Freddie 1st
It would depend on the “couple of prospects” the brewers would want quality prospects in return. They have nothing to gain by the dodgers throwing money at him. That being said, the dodgers do have a good chance if he reaches free agency.
Never understand the fascination with Lux by many Brewer fans. Simply because he’s a WI kid and Dodger hyped propect. Ridiculous!!
Huge relationship gap the Brewers have with Adames vs. Hader. They dumped Hader for peanuts. Don’t expect that with Adames return. So tougher to trade. This lead builds to over 10games, even moreso.
The Crew didn’t view those prospects as “peanuts” and if u were one of those who did you were clearly wrong because those “peanuts” are major reasons why this club has been so well rounded so far this year and should continue to be for years to come!!
More “well rounded” because they’re finally playing more athletes instead of the typical plodding Tellez, Vogelbach, two result dh types of years past.
The guy who traded Hader went undercover for a year before leaving for the Mets. Matt Arnold won’t follow in David Stearns’ footsteps unless the return would include a prime starting pitcher. Adames has been the lifeblood of the team since his arrival, so Arnold will be content to make a qualifying offer, and get a high draft choice in return for Adames.
I agree it’s not out of the realm of possibility, but two things strongly suggest they will not deal Willy at the deadline.
1. As MA1 and MA2 state in the article, Adames is the heart and soul of the team, and trading your star shortstop at the deadline would have a devastating effect on team morale, making the clubhouse effect of the Hader trade seem small in comparison.
2. They would really have to be blown away by a trade, given that they’d get a comp pick if Willy does sign with another team next winter. So whatever return they’d get would have to be significantly better than a #1 (comp round) pick. And for a two-month rental, I don’t see that happening, especially if you consider #1 above. Plus, I think they hold out hope that Willy might still sign with them next winter.
He just explained how this literally makes sense.
Based on past moves (Hader, and dealing Burnes before this season) I wouldn’t bet they’ll keep him. And if he continues to produce with the bat, I think it only increases the chance he’s in another uniform come August.
There’s almost zero chance he resigns after the season, so they’ll want something in return, not a draft pick consolation prize for the rejected QO.
Hader and Burnes both lost arbitration hearings and had poor relationships with the team and were negative both publicly and in the clubhouse. Adames has not lost any hearings and has a positive relationship with the public and the clubhouse.
Sometimes things really are simple.
I’m sure having a positive relationship is going to prompt Mark A to offer a mega deal in the off-season.
Or not. Because he’s cheap.
Simple as that.
Crazy how much and how fast they have already moved on from Lucroy.
Brewers have two SS’s on the roster with six years control and both OPS’ing over .800. Turang and Ortiz are natural Shoetstops and one both could slide into the position seamlessly. That said, Brewers would need to get about triple the comp pick value to even consider moving Adames at the deadline.
Chourio is a natural SS, too.
Maybe in high school, but ever since being drafted, he’s been an OFer.
Plus, if they did trade him, Ortiz would likely move to SS. Then what happens at 3B? Dunn, Monasterio, Tyler Black are not good options at this point.
Trading and/or not resigning Adames would be a big mistake and likely set this team back. If anything, trade Hoskins and put some of that $$ towards Adames if you’re buying the Brewers/MarkA small market poverty propaganda. Trade Weimer too if there’s any interest from other teams. Frelick’s a 4th OF, not an everyday player and has no business batting first.
An infield of Ortiz, Adames, Turang, and a better defensive 1B (Santana?) than they currently have is MLB top 10. Along with Contreras, Adames, Turang, & Perkins up the middle is solid. Yelich, Perkins, & Mitchell (if healthy) is a good OF. The Brewers need another quality SP.
If we don’t know the number of years or the money, we don’t know if Attanasio really tried to keep Adames or not. He could make 100 offers, but if none are competitive, he didn’t try very hard. He’s letting us fill in the only important blanks hoping we’ll assume he made good offers. I don’t think we can. Let him tell us the details and maybe I’ll buy it.
And knowing that Attanasio is currently more interested in getting ROI on his England soccer club, he is NOT going to payout $$ for Adames.
Attanasio has been raking in the cash with one of the best lease deals in all of MLB., even though the beat writers regurgitate his pleas of “poverty”. He has not “gone all in” in years. MAYBE this year, but history says he won’t.
Devers is not an elite fielder
Neither is Adames.
You don’t give big money to streaky hitters.
*Xander Bogarts, Lindor, Story, Turner…streaky hitting SS get paid.
Adames is hitting the free agent market as a well sought-after everyday shortstop. At this point, why wouldn’t he?
Brewers will trade him and could get a nice haul for some contending power hungry club. Wouldn’t be surprised if Mets, Phillies, Cubs (doubt in divisional rival stands a chance), Yankees, Mariners, or Blue Jays get into a bidding war for his services. Mets have Lindor at SS and can move Adames to 3B or 2B when not sub. In for Lindor (on off days). Should be interesting development come July
Adames hasn’t played 3b for Milw.
Adames would be the best 3B for Milwaukee in decades. Power hitter and great fielder and then move Turang or Ortiz to SS..
ARod never played 3B; Cal Ripken Jr never played 3B either….
Two months of Adames won’t land as much as fans believe. Mets will be sellers. Blue Jays too. Yankees have Volpe. The issue is finding a contending club in need of a SS who will deal decent prospects. It’s a limited list. I don’t see a position change midseason. You know which contending club could use his services? The Brewers.
Whopping.
Willy gets 8 years 140 million to stay in Milwaukee
Chourio has option years at 25mil. There’s no chance Adames signs with Milw for under 20M a season.
Adams is going to be 8/225ish
“Adams is going to be 8/225ish”…I can’t think of any team that both needs and evaluates Adames in the $200M+ neighborhood. 90% of teams already have their necessary shortstops and most of the big spending teams are up against the CBT. I see Adames as more a 4/85M guy since he’s a serviceable and solid player, but far from a superstar. I doubt any team even sees Adames even in the $100M+ neighborhood.
Saying he’s the best and the heart of the team seems an odd strategy on the road to a reasonable payday for a small market team.
He’s always just been a good, not great player. If he thinks teams are going to be backing up the trucks for him in FA he’s in for a rude awakening!
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers flip Willy at the deadline. They’ve shown that they’re willing to retool even when they’re in the hunt for the playoffs, just like the Hader trade.
Mainly why only ONE WS appearance in 55 years!
Incorrect
Brewers would be crazy not to deal him at the deadline. History shows the Brewers are in to win the NL Central and disappear in the playoffs. Adames is not worth what he will be asking. Adames shows flashes of brilliance then goes through long bouts of 0’fers. He makes great plays on defense and will boot routine grounders. Brewers would be better off, long term, to move him before the deadline.
You do know Brewers have generally lost 1 of the top 3 players on team in Sept. You’re also seeing what 75+mil in payroll can buy the other teams.
Yes I have since 1970!!!!!!
6/$150mm. Not a penny more.
I dont think the Hader last minute dump is a fair comparison since pitchers always get hurt.
That said, the Brewers have signed very few long term deals eg Yelich 9-years 215 million is the longest and as others have pointed out they have several other shortstops.
They are positioning themselves to see what they can get, ie pitchers, Lux maybe Rushing de Paula from the Dodgers at the deadline.
Dodgers have the cash to extend.