The Red Sox haven’t yet discussed a contract extension with Jarren Duran, the outfielder told MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo earlier this week, though Duran doesn’t seem bothered by the lack of talks. “I’m just here to play baseball. If they come talk to me, then they come talk to me, but I’m just enjoying playing baseball with this team,” Duran said. The Sox aren’t exactly on a ticking clock, as Duran doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this coming winter, though he will likely qualify for Super Two status and thus earn a fourth arbitration year.
That extra arb year could make things very lucrative for Duran, given how has continued to up his game in 2024. He has hit .280/.347/.478 over 350 plate appearances this season, just about matching the numbers he posted over 362 PA in 2023. When combined with his excellent baserunning and solid defense in left and center field, Duran has generated 3.1 fWAR, a number topped by only eight players this season.
Considering how Duran struggled in his first two big league seasons, it isn’t surprising that the Red Sox wanted a little more data beyond just 2023 to make sure that Duran’s breakout was for real. Signing Duran to an extension will be a lot more expensive now than it would’ve been last winter, yet it still might allow the Red Sox to gain some certainty over Duran’s escalating arb salaries, and add another year of control or two over a player they might now view as a longer-term building block. That said, Duran’s age could also be a factor, as he turns 28 in September, and so Boston already has him arb-controlled through his age-31 season.
More from around the AL East…
- Jordan Romano’s throwing progression has been paused due to some elbow soreness, Blue Jays manager John Schneider told MLB.com’s Henry Palattella (X link) and other media. Romano was supposed to pitch off a mound today for the first time since being placed on the 15-day IL due to right elbow inflammation back on June 1, but now that plan has been temporarily set aside. Elbow discomfort has been an issue for Romano for all season, resulting in a pair of IL trips and a rough 6.59 ERA over 13 2/3 innings in between those absences. Toronto’s bullpen has struggled for much of the season, and is currently without its projected top three relievers. Romano and Yimi Garcia are injured, and Erik Swanson is currently in Triple-A trying to get on track after posting a 9.22 ERA in his first 13 2/3 innings of 2024.
- Season-ending injuries to John Means, Tyler Wells, and now Kyle Bradish have only underlined the Orioles’ need for starting pitching, and Baltimore is widely expected to pursue rotation help at the deadline. However, sources tell The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo, and Ken Rosenthal that GM Mike Elias hasn’t felt the need to become any more aggressive in the wake of Bradish’s Tommy John surgery, and that the O’s might still wait until closer to the actual deadline to make any pitching moves. The Orioles’ 49-26 record gives them plenty of breathing room to evaluate their needs, though Baltimore is also in a tight race with the Yankees for the AL East crown.
- Ending the notes post with another Red Sox item, Boston reinstated Wilyer Abreu from the 10-day injured list today, and optioned Bobby Dalbec to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Abreu has missed just shy of three weeks with a sprained ankle, interrupting the outfielder’s quietly outstanding play since making his MLB debut last season. Abreu had a .862 OPS over 85 PA in 2023, and with his rookie status still intact, has now gained some Rookie of the Year buzz with his .272/.344/.485 slash line over 189 PA this season.
They should just shut Romano down at this point. An even bolder move would be to admit that the rebuild essentially failed and it’s time to return to the drawing board, but we all know that won’t happen.
Hard for a rebuild to succeed when your front office refuses to trade hot(ish) commodities back in 2017-2018, draft well, develop players at positions not named second base, lose trades, and not fully address holes on the field year in and year out.
But, Jays fans said trust the process!
Romano is falling off a cliff in terms of production. I bet he’s out of the league in 2 years.
Duran is having a very good season so far but i would definitely wait and see how he finishes before worrying about extending him
Rsox – I’m fine with waiting, but he was just as good last year so I don’t think this year is a fluke.
If Roman becomes what they expect of him, I think Duran will be traded. They want an OF of Abreu/Rafaela/Anthony.
Prospects are always suspect till they prove it successfully in the show.
The Sox have a nice problem to have with glut of position player prospects rising through the system. May have to see if any of them can be swapped out for some arms because the pitching side is ugly. Also how much money is it going to cost to get someone to take Trevor Story because moving forward does he really have a spot on this team anymore?
No one is taking Story until he proves himself healthy and at the plate, As for Duran, I don’t see a deal under this ownership who looks at age and demands value based on expectations for EVERY year. They likely see his speed declining and his OF play was horrible when he first came up. To get requires you to give and I can see Duran moved in a blockbuster this off season. I’ve become a Duran fan so I’m not in favor. Henry though looks at the Sox as an asset when he used to look at the team as THE ASSET.
Dont forget.
When healthy story is one of the most talented players in the whole organization..certainly the best ss and with all due respect to mayer or whoever else they put out there its not close
Story is a never was with the Sox. Be real he has not played much at all.
Story for Baez. Straight up.
No thanks. Baez can be a cancer, Story proved himself this past winter off the field and hopefully can still do so on it.
I should have prefaced that I was kidding, Dewey.
dewey – You have me perplexed, what do you mean by proving himself off the field last winter?
Henry is still reeling from pandemic cash flow problems. He won’t admit it. I’d have liked to be a fly on the wall when Henry and Werner discussed the “Full Throttle” comment. Werner probably needed to buy a prosthetic butt.
Ghost – Agree with you on the pandemic, but not sure about the full throttle comment. I think that may have been intentional to drive up ticket sales.
Remember they waited until the day after season ticket renewals were due before coming clean by saying payroll will “probably” be lower again this year.
Red Sox are in the playoffs as of today, yet youre still crying about the “full throttle” comment. Wow.
No more waiting… two years can’t tell you what kind of player he is? We should’ve waited more on Bello
Duran is locked up until he’s 32.
Waiting is more than fine.
Sox tried hard to trade Duran last offseason, good thing they were unsuccessful. His value increases every day, love the guy despite the ugly mullet.
Who cares about the mullet as long as he produces and he has.
I have never heard anyway say the sox tried “hard” or really at all to trade Durran
Fever, again I posted before scrolling. I too see him dealt before extended.
@FPG and Dewey, I agree with you guys. I posted a few months back, either here or at the globe that they were playing him every day to showcase him for a trade.
DBH – It won’t happen until Abreu is established and Roman is up for good, I’m thinking July 2025 or the 2025-2026 offseason. Duran will be making peanuts under team control, and who could replace him before then? They aren’t signing Tyler and Ref isn’t an everyday starter.
I expect to see the big 3 in Fenway after the trade deadline. I thought it would be next year, but they are rocking AA. They’ll do a cup.of coffee tour in Wootown soon.
Mayer to Short, Ceddanne to CF, Abreu to RF.
The Develop at Fenwy idead is being pushed in the globe, nesn, and elsewhere by the FO.
O’Neill is definitely gine by the deadline, and i think Duran also. Look for pitching in return, because jansen, Martin, and maybe Pivetta are to traded also
I don’t think the value on Duran will be there at the deadline because clubs won’t trade near ready talent back if they’re in the race. If the team stays in the race and Fenway rocks like it has in the past, trading the pitching will also be hard. O’Neil if he stays healthy is the one that will likely be traded. That said, if this team starts to lose again, much if not all of what you said DBH could be one a reality. For all the negatives that were said about Bloom, other than O’Neil, these assets were due to his moves.
DBH – Seems very unlikely Mayer will be in the MLB soon. The team is hot. They will not want to put a guy who will hit .125 for his first 50 at bats in the line-up especially if they have Story who can hit .200 to .250.
When the team comes back to reality and hovers at .500 again maybe they will bring him up so Mayer can get pounded by real pitchers. He’s just not that good. Expectations are contagious and while the team is playing way way over their heads expectations just keep exceeding reality. Mayer is a .261 hitter at AA. When he brings up his entire AA average to .280 he’ll move to AAA and need to prove he can hit at that level too. One team can only have so much luck in a single year. 2021 proved that. The wins against the NYY and PHI shows anyone can have a lucky hot streak. Be thankful for it but don’t expect it to continue. The team STILL lacks the talent it needs to make the playoffs. Counting on DD’s young outfielders remaining hot seems to be a bit optimistic. Duran seems very legit like Casas but the no names like Wong 142 OPS=, Abreu 130 OPS+ Refsnyder 143 OPS+ aren’t going to carry the team they have already far exceeded their skill level and will disappear in the second half.
The good news is Boston has learned that Abreu and Rafaela are for real and can be counted on in 2025 to start with Casas, Devers and Duran. If Story can finally get healthy they have six legit starters who have skill sets that could make them future all-stars. They still need a 3B to play defense. O’Neill probably won’t be signed to create quality depth because of his cost. Wong is a flash in the pan and is due for a big slump. So 3B, SS, 1B, LF, RF, CF will all be covered in 2025 with solid quality players. Catcher, Secondbase and DH/3B will be weak spots but six is better than what we started with this season. A 3B who can field and a Yoshida playing elsewhere would help the team a lot.
Once BOS gets Hendriks contributing the bullpen will be better and the continued growth behind Houck of Crawford and Bello will be much stronger than this year. Breslow’s pitching coaches have done a great job despite Cora!!
I agree with much of this in theory, TF. We discused this in the offseason. I thought the big 3 wouldn’t be seen until 2025, but you called end of this year. I think you will end up being correct regardless of how the big 3 are doing.
Henry’s last interview to me made it pretty obvious that he will not open the purse strings this year, hense the FFOsuddne PR push about developing at the big league level being the wave of the future. translation… Fenway is the new AAAA training complex.
I believe the Sox will sell off at the deadline. O’Neill, jansen, Martin, maybe Pivetta are all going. I think Duran and Mcguire might also be dealt. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Yoshi in some kind of package deal aka Betts/Price type deal with Jansen or Duran.
Yoshinhas no value in Boston, but for a team looking for an on-base guy, he has a little. Sox will still need to eat some of the contract, but they can afford to, unless they eat value on Duran.
Sox will need to trade for pitching, though, either mlb ready or near ready. The farm is stacked with position players, but pitching is more rare than an honest politician.
I would exp3ct to see Mayer, Teel, Anthony, Yorke, and Meidroth. Yorke could also b3 a trade chip.
Would guys like me, you, or FPG or most who post here make those moves? Probably not. But Henry doesn’t sign our checks lol!
Dewey, henry wont spend, see my post below. Doesn’t matter where the Sox are come the deadline, Henry won’t spend, and Breslow won’t sell the future for a maybe push into the post season. Oh, and Henry won’t spend.
And beyond that, Henry still won’t spend lol
It’s not all that surprising to me that you continue to double down on the Mayer bashing and continue to be completely wrong about it. I’ll continue to defer to actual prospect evaluators that do this for a living. And no Baseball America isn’t in the pockets of the teams just because their evaluators don’t agree with your off the wall assessments.
DBH – I assume you believe the Sox will be out of the WC race by the deadline, so let’s go with that assumption. Everything below is based strictly on your assumption.
For MAT to be called up, I can see Teel replacing McGuire and I can see Anthony replacing Tyler.
Absolutely I see Martin, Jansen and Pivetta traded at the deadline.
What do they do with the infield situation?
Mayer is rocking it as you say.
Yorke is the closest of them all, 1.039 OPS at AAA
Hamilton has already established himself in The Show
And Grissom should return by then according to Cora.
Personally, the one guy in that group that I would trade is Grissom. He is a high injury risk, not a good reputation on defense, and doesn’t seem to have the proper mentality to succeed at the MLB level. Not saying definitely, but that’s how it’s leaning right now.
Absolutely the Red Sox are pushing the youth movement, they are the key to lower payroll and therefore bigger profits. But for that to happen, some VERY big decisions have to be made with several of their young players. This will be a pivotal time for Breslow and the FO because if they choose to keep the wrong players it could set back the franchise for another 5+ years.
And BTW this is where Dombrowski always excelled, he is GREAT at knowing which young players to keep and which to cut loose.
dewey – I think the opposite. So many historically mediocre and historically bad teams will be technically in the WC race that they will feel pressured to GFIN and therefore trade from their positions of strength. It will be a VERY strong sellers market because of the expanded postseason and widespread mediocre records.
Not sure what your point is about Bloom, he ran the show until last September so of course most of the veteran guys on the trade block were acquired by him. Still have more than a month where Martin, Jansen and Tyler could all go into severe slumps or on the IL again.
TF – Great post, good to see you back!!
I agree it’s way too soon to get excited about this year’s team, after all they are only one game better than last year’s team and only two games better than the 2022 team. They have a tough scheduled leading up to the deadline with 6 games against the Yankees and 12 games against the Dodgers, Royals, Padres and Mariners.
Last night the Reds proved to be another victim of analytics overuse, showing very poor fundamentals. They ran into several dumb outs, made multiple fielding errors, and catching that foul ball instead of letting it drop was idiotic ….. how did they not know Duran would score on that play??
As Youk and all the other NESN guys said, thank you Reds for the gift victory!!
DBH – Did you see Dalbec trash John Henry? I loved it!!!
As for me making moves, I’ve been saying for almost a year that Mayer and Yorke would be called up at some point this season. I think Teel and Anthony have no shot if the Sox are still in it and going for a WC spot. I can’t see Meidroth either way.
BTW – Much credit to Breslow for conducting the audit, seems to be paying off already with cutting back on analytics.
DBH – If Henry’s cheapness leads to Cora leaving, then it will be good for at least one thing! LOL!!
Did you hear Rosenthal report that Cora would be a top target of the Yankees if Boone doesn’t get them to the World Series. I would fully endorse it!!!
Fever – Stop teasing me. Cora still has illicit pictures of Henry or something that got him a reprieve after he was found guilty for tainting baseball with up to 90 games impacted.
Breslow has had mixed reviews this year because the facts aren’t certain. Is there money and he’s not using it or is the money being locked in the vault? Nobody is certain but many believe they are right whether they believe either side of the story.
We need to just count the wins for Breslow:
1 = New pitching coaches allowed to over rule Cora and his f’d up beliefs about pitching. HUGE WIN
2 – New pitching philosophy changes the success rate of the pitchers because their off speed approach was new and it helped the pitchers locate the ball in better locations.
3.= The utility guys are playing far beyond their skills. Did he pick the right guys? Maybe or it’s just a great lucky streak. Either way Breslow brought fairly worthless players to Boston and they have been successful so far.
4 – He gambled and for the most part was right about O’Neill and wrong about Giolito then right about D Smith and not so much with his other 1B pick-ups to keep the team floating while Casas heals. Overall, his gambles were better than Blooms but not exactly great, just good enough.
I’d give Breslow an incomplete for his grade since we don’t know if he did all he could getting money or he didn’t try to get the money to beef up the roster. Beyond that, he gets at least a B if not a B+ for 2024. Lets hope he doesn’t rush the over rated Bloom draft picks to the majors and expose them. We need to deal them while their is still an illusion of quality.
TF – Are you saying Henry will make Cora the highest paid manager in MLB?
Sorry I don’t think Henry is THAT stupid. He knows this is the first time since 2018 that Cora is giving his best and actually trying to win, and Henry knows it’s because Cora is trying to justify a massive new contract. No different than many players who miraculously have one of their best seasons whenever it’s a contract year.
Hopefully Henry realizes once Cora signs a new deal, no matter which team he’s with, he will likely resort back to the same lazy unmotivated manager he was in 2023 …. and 2022 …. and 2019 …..
Fever – I stopped predicting Henry because he’s illogical in his recent decision making starting with Mookie.
Cora may or may not be back. Nobody wants him back that knows baseball but that’s been true since 2018.
Devers still plays 3B despite being the worst in history. If Henry wanted him at DH he’d be at DH so once again we have an illogical decision by Henry.
Henry hired DD he did great and got fired. Henry hired Bloom and he sucked and he stayed longer than DD. Cora is a third example of Henry being illogical. So how does one predict Henry with respect to Breslow? He may have been a good soldier like Bloom so he gets to stay longer OR his brilliant moves with the pitching can be reacted to like DD winning a championship so Breslow won’t last long.
Henry spun out of reality and into his own world in 2018 when he hired Cora. It got worse when he let go DD and might as well be outer space when he traded Mookie. I have absolutely no insights into Henry’s state of mind if there is one. I’m pretty sure anything I would guess would be wrong based on all the horrible moves he made since he fired DD.
I don’t think Cora is worried about the money in a contract because he could simple rob a bank since he has no concept of right or wrong. He’s all about ego. I think he would be happy with a worthless Assistant VP job where he gets in front of the cameras, talks for hours and makes absolutely no sense since he’s mimicking others who actually know baseball but he has no idea what it means.
Fever, you know me. I would never suggest ANYTHING positive about Cora. He never earned his job, he’s screwed up the team daily and he is dishonest and a liar. He’s as low as a person can go from an integrity perspective.
NO, I’m not suggesting he will keep his job. I am simply stating that predicting his future is a complete uncertainty thanks to Henry and that’s a very scary thought!!!
LMAO…. The Sox will do barely nothing at the deadline. Status Quo.
TF – Cora was at it again tonight, immediately throwing Campbell into the fire like he has done with so many of his relief pitchers. Why does he constantly do that??
dewey – Duran is now 19th in MLB for OPS, combine that with his stellar defense and baserunning and he’s a top MVP candidate right now.
jesus christ
romano has been hurt with elbow inflammation for 3 months
and they just keep making him go thru “rehab” process, then the minors, brief stint in the majors, then back on the DL
clearly something’s very wrong
maybe TJ
why do teams do this (and players themselves)
they just prolong the inevitable
its so frustrating
Chris Sale can attest to that.
This would be Romano’s second TJ. Blue Jays also rushed Swanson back when he couldn’t get low-A hitters out.
jarren duran is having a breakout year. he’s an extra base machine. ton of speed. some pop. he’s an all around great bat. but boston has him signed til 2028 when he’ll be 32 yrs old. i dont think they’re in a rush to offer an extension. he could be a good fit with the yankees or rangers or maybe the phillies if red sox dont retain him long term
Johnny – Ownership has stated they will not try to win until 2026 at the earliest when MAT become stars. At that time Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela will be 22-25 while Duran will be 29. That’s why they haven’t tried to extend Duran.
mat stands for mayer, anthony, teel im guessing?
like i said, jarren will do well in many other lineups if sox dont want him. he’s a great table setter. and 2024 is only his 1st full season. he’s gonna be good for a while whether its in boston or another AL tm
i think the timeline is also when the Os will need to start making hard decisions on their young core as they will be all hitting arbitration around the same time and getting expensive.
Yep but as for Duran, I can’t see him going to the Yankees. The first CFer they took in free agency worked out fine (Damon) but the most recent still has scars (Ellsbury).
“Ownership has stated they will not try to win until 2026”
When? They’re competing (although limited) right now, and will definitely be competing next year.
James – The new Baltimore owner has the money and is willing to spend it. I expect them to be contenders for at least the next 6 years.
dewey – If the Yankees sign Soto, they will go cheap on whomever the third infielder is. But Duran isn’t a free agent until 2028 so a lot could happen before then.
Obviously not a Redsox fan
Duran’s exit velocities have recently popped, on par with Devers at this point. He is a line drive hitter, so he won’t hit that many home runs, but he is hitting the ball HARD. He is having a terrific season.
Rafaela is also hitting the ball harder this past month, and showing improved plate discipline. He is still improving, impossible to guess his ceiling.
Valdez came back from his WooSox vacation with newfound appreciation for the strike zone. Must have tinkered with his swing, somehow, it is looking a lot better.
The bullpen has been outstanding, top five in the majors.
TFF – I totally agree, the bullpen has performed very well and it’s reflected in the team’s record going into the 8th with a lead. Hopefully they can keep it up.
I’m really pleased they are moving away from the overuse of analytics. They could have saved a lot of money by listening to me the past few years instead of paying a fortune for the outside auditing. LOL!!
They still use analytics very heavily, but the current team merges that with both practical on-field experience and good insight. A number is just a number, a knife is just a knife. In the hands of a skilled craftsman you end up with a work of art. In the hands of a butcher, you end up with a bloody mess. (That’s unfair to butchers, but you get my drift.)
Checking out again, just enjoying this team. The proof will be in the standings at the end of the season. The analytics argued for a .500 team (at best), but the human factor is thus far exceeding that.
tff – Great post!
Cora and others have recently said the Red Sox were producing and thrusting onto the players too much analytical data with numerous team meetings.
In Cora’s exact words, during the last homestand they began “filtering” the data and therefore having far fewer team meetings. They realized much of the analytics was worthless, and that players should focus on what makes them successful as individuals instead of spending so much time and effort focusing on the opposition.
And it makes total sense!
To a man with a hammer, everything is a nail.
Make no mistake, Breslow is highly conversant with modern analytics. But he is also intimately aware of the human side of the game, as is Cora. Casual fans don’t fully recognize what these guys do to support and encourage the young players in their development, as it doesn’t show up in the box score.
Breslow is a man with a full tool kit – or he would be if Henry weren’t a pinch-penny. He is going to make mistakes, of course, but you can trust that he isn’t going to just hammer everything flat.
And now I really will retire from this thread. Not interested in getting into arguments, will let the scoreboard do the talking for me.
Fever – Think about Cora. Anything to take credit for any perceived success. Remember he was the reason Boston Won the World Series in 2018. Just ask him!!!! hahaha
What an ego maniac!!!!
tff – Excellent post!!! I totally agree, the one-tool analytics crowd thinks hammering everything with analytics is the way to go …. but clearly it’s not. So many prominent baseball men who have supported analytics in the past (such as Theo) are now publicly acknowledging the reliance on analytics has gone too far. Breslow is a highly intelligent man who suspected as such, which was a big reason why he initiated the audit.
I knew this was coming, I said as much many times in the past. You probably never saw this quote from David Ortiz back on December 1st, so it’s worth repeating here:
““I heard yesterday that he’s [Breslow] trying to shut down a little bit of the analytic side and going back to the old-fashioned part of the game,” Ortiz said. ““I think that’s a good way to start. I think the game has transformed everything to analytics and, at the end of the day, analytics can only cover so much. You need to have people with heart, people with spirit, people that have been in the situation that can give some guidance to the young blood and teach them how to put up with situations.”
Jesus Luzardo being shelved with his 2nd IL stint today pours cold water on the Orioles pursuit of him as help for the stretch run. That’s a shame, there was some chatter about the Fish being a good match for the O’s. Maybe Tanner Scott can still be had without having to pay a kings ransom.
Elias rightfully values durability in SPs. Luzardo has always been more of a fan idea than a fit for his MO.
That said, I’d put my money on Crochet. Effectively gives Elias the high leverage reliever he needs, plus 6-8 premium starts whenever needed most. Then he gets stretched into a near full-time elite SP next year, whether or not they bring back Burnes.
they may still need a 3rd elite starter for the playoffs (as teams normally go down to a 3 man rotation in the playoffs with the added days off). Burnes and Grayson are a fine 1-2 punch. Bradish was going to be the 3 (and means could have). Povich is the only other guy in that rotation that even has the ability to be a post season starter…. the others are really innings eaters playing above their heads.
Elias is really good at spotting talent- Flaherty was terrible last season- but what he is doing this year sort of proves he knows what he is looking at (or at least his scout team is that good).
I think he wants more time to slide McDermott in to see what he has there- and also give Povich more time to figure out if he is the answer. Past that i think the Os will be in on a lot of the SP market at the deadline.
Is Mountcastle odd man out? Cheap and not a UFA until 2027. He’s the proven league level talent the Os have that can get them a quality SP in trade. And time to give Ryan O’Hearn his just dues as regular 1st baseman.
So the Orioles didn’t need Luzardo because of durability but Crochet is a good choice?
Lol what?
Did you read the following sentence or nah? The price will be lower on Crochet to boot because he’s capped this year (and maybe 180 next year).
Big difference in durability between a guy who is perpetually hurt with only bouts of excellence (Luzardo) and a one-time injury guy who is otherwise consistently elite (Crochet). When Elias only has to pay for a reliever+ with similar term to Luzardo (esp for the two years everyone’s been clamoring for that deal), he’s got a lot less to lose.
Consistently elite? He’s had a really good half a season.
He had a sub-3.20 xERA in 60 relief IP (about a season’s worth) before he broke a ligament.
60 innings is a third of a season for a starting pitcher which is what he is now. And then he got seriously hurt. He has pitched less than 1 full season stretched out over numerous years. He’s a huge injury risk.
Crochet has never pitched this much in a season. Could see arm fatigue drop soon like Tyler Wells last year. Looks good now but might not make it to September.
**In my LGM (Mets in 7) – or whatever his screen name is**
Mike Elias is the worst GM in baseball! I mean why didn’t he sign any starting pitching this offseason?? He’s such a bad GM – I mean any good GM could have predicted that the Orioles would lose 3 of their starters to season ending injuries!!! What an idiot! Look at how bad the Orioles are!! Terrible GM!!!
Obvious that he’s the worst!!!!!!!!! Record, team ERA, run diff and lack of talent on the farm. Keeps signing castoffs that no other GM wants and there’s not one of them that works out. Only signs high dollar FAs, that’s the only reason they ever win. Anyone can win with that payroll. Can’t beat the Yankees or anyone else in the AL East.
Sharpen the pitchforks, light the torches!
Wow, what a sorry take, @skins.
That sounds like Bloom.
It was sarcasm on his part.
This is a ridiculous post. 101 wins. Second best record in baseball this year and the best minor leagues in baseball.
In addition they entered the year with the best starting pitching in baseball. You wanted them to spend $40 million just in case they lost two top starters?
Add Wells to that, although I think he is actually their second best reliever and should have been the closer coming into this year.
Anyone it’s just silly to criticize Elias – especially considering the team was for sake.
BTW exactly which FA pitcher did you want? Montgomery I suppose. He’s been awesome.
I get that the injuries are hard to take but try focusing on the incredible talent Elias has assembled and enjoy the ride
Sarcasm based off another poster.
No BOBBY no vibes
Could be the last time we ever see Dalbec in Boston….we can always hope……
Bloom needed to trade Bobby after 2021, but no he likes cheap players instead of doing what’s best for the layer n team.
Dalbec pounded out 25 homers in the 2021 season. Realistically, no one would have traded him.
Horace – 100% correct. Dalbec was one of the best hitters in the MLB the second half of 2021. He looked like an all-star, no team would have traded him, and no one would have expected him to collapse like he did. The Red Sox made the correct decision at the time which was to keep Dalbec.
spitfire
Bloom needed to trade Bobby after 2021,
============================
Of course we know this NOW. When Dalbec was drafted, I thought he’d be an RP before he’d ever become a 3B, and even I wouldn’t have traded him.
Maybe you can give us some insight on how this Babe Ruth trade is going to work out.
Jarren has developed so well, n I’m sure it’s been support from his devoted family. I’m so happy for the Duran family. I admit I was down on him initially but he’s turned me around by playing hard n delivering. Sign him please.
Trading for a SP right now would be dumb since the SP market hasn’t even really come into focus completely yet and will not for several more weeks. There are a bunch of bubble teams that won’t decide whether or not to sell until the third or fourth week of July, so Elias is completely right to wait and see what the market looks like on July 20th instead of panicking.
I think it depends on who you are dealing with. Miami is open for business. An extra win or 2 that a pitching addition would add could be the difference in the Orioles winning the division or not. But yes a lot of guys might be available later that aren’t available today that is true. I really think Luzardo made a lot of sense but obviously not anymore.
It’s a fair point but my biggest concern with a hypothetical SP acquisition is getting the best guy possible for starts in October at a price that isn’t so steep that it severely damages our chances in future seasons. As far as I can tell, that guy isn’t available yet.
Brought it home again Nation!!’ No deficit is to much with OLMTIANT the building!!! Now some skyline chili to celebrate!!!
0lm – Every time you attend a game, the home team makes a bunch of mental errors. Please don’t attend any games at Fenway!!!
How hot was it yesterday? Hopefully you kept well hydrated ;O)
Very true!!! I mean my buddy’s growing up in basketball called me chief…. Not Robert Parrish—- the guy from one flew over the cookoo nest… so much truth to your statement… man it was HOT!! On third base side / sun all day .. my new guy Booser made an appearance!!! So when Duran tagged.. I said to Reds fan next to me… only him and me score on that.. when he made catch… I looked at him and said… Nope only he makes the catch.. poor dude felt his pain…
olm – Look what you did to Booser, you got him sent to the minors!!
Please don’t make Houck your new new guy!!!
All hail Olmtiant!
Sign Duran for six years. True Leadoff hitters are hated to find.
@Thec. No need. Sox already control him until he ends arbitration at the age of 31, when players’ speed begins to plummet. The only reason to extend is to buys years beyond arbitration.
All true, but I would definitely like to hear is number. Cora recently referred to him as a team leader, or hoping he’d develop into a team leader. Part of that bargain has to be a show of faith on our part.
I think an arbitration projection is straight forward enough. Guarantee that amount in return for two option years.
DBH – Duran has 4 years of ARB according to SPOTRAC so the target date to lock down FA years should be prior to the second to last ARB year. Duran could finish out his career a Red Sox player if the front office uses standard logic for extending not the new crap that is going on that makes absolutely no sense. Too much money is at risk using current popular approaches. If Duran is an all-star or borderline all star and a team leader after the 2026 season then he should be offered a long term deal that suits his 30 year old beginning point and appropriately rewards the remaining skills he’ll have in the first half of his 30s. The contract should be performance based taking into account all he contributed during controlled years dictated by Arbitration evaluations of his worth.
Duran would be a bad person to trade and would reflect a bias in the Red Sox organization. Devers, Abreu and Wong are clearly treated differently than Duran, Rafaela and Casas. That needs to change and firing Cora would fix that problem and improve the future of the organization. Bias has dictated the behavior of the Red Sox since Cora arrived. He’s cost them so much and provided so little yet he gets to stay all those years despite cheating, mismanaging and preferential treatment of players. He is the cancer that prevents this organization from thriving once again.
@TF, ya Duran should make super 2, so 4 arb years. With all that I posted above, please don’t that I am in favor of moving him. I am not. But I believe the Sox will move him, no matter how idiotic you and think that would be.
TF – I agree with everything you wrote, but I think there’s zero chance of Duran playing his entire career with the Red Sox. They simply will not pay him fairly for his late-30’s years, they will make all the usual analytics assumptions such as “he will lose all his speed” etc etc and they will expect him to give a massive hometown discount by lowballing him like they did with Mookie, Xander, Lester, etc.
DBH – And remember, that makes 3 of us. I don’t want Duran going anywhere.
But fact is, if Abreu and Anthony prove to be studs then the only possibility of keeping Duran would be to have Rafaela permanently move to infield …. which brings me back to my original question, who do you keep in the infield between Grissom, Yorke, Mayer and Hamilton if Rafaela occupies one of the two middle infielder spots? Of course I’m assuming Story would be sent packing, or simply finish his career on the IL like Albert Belle and Steven Strasburg.
Ya, like TF said. I hope Breslow is as good at knowing which prospects to hold and which to trade. I think he does. Like we were discussing this training, we could have a team full of position players making under a mil (expect those extended).
I could see Ceddanne being a super utility or at least an up the middle utility. He plays 2nd, just not well.
I still think Yorke is traded for an arm.
DBH – Rafaela’s versatility is his true value. I don’t foresee him ever being a .800 OPS hitter, but if he can at least stay above .650 he will have value. He reminds me of JBJ, the occasional hot streaks in between a bunch of hitless streaks.
I’d trade Grissom for three reasons. One, he has never been a good defender at any position. Two, despite his young age he’s already injury prone. And three, he doesn’t seem to have a good head on his shoulders.
@FPG. Grissom is only 23 and still at league min. I would trade him after story get back. But if they trade him tomorrow, I will be fine with it
shapiro been Fired yet ??
Until the twelfth of never
And that’s a long, long time
Until the twelfth of never
And that’s a long long time
That’s a long, long time….
Quote from Johnny Mathis…..
Sox should continue to ignore all the noise and keep doing what they have been doing the past year. Trust the farm system. Extend the top young prospects so they have money to spend while they are in their twenties and lock them down into their early 30’s. Stop spending big dollars on 30 plus free agents going well into their declining years. Continue to invest in international players, players in their post hype years, and under appreciated athletic prospects from other organizations. Build the bullpen finding uniquely skilled short inning pitchers. Pay attention to the Celtics model. Build from within and strike when an opportunity presents itself. Either extend Duran now for a year or two or plan to replace him at the right moment. Pay the money to your own guys first. It builds trust and harmony. Nothing eats a team more than paying big bucks to outsiders who do not produce while management complains about salary cap limitations.
Finally a reasonable post. Everyone forgets about all of the money Henry spent on free agents who sucked. It’s nice to see the young homegrown talent playing good/great baseball. I don’t understand all the dissing of Conor Wong either, he’s always hit, this is the first time he’s been give a full time shot. While i love Duran, i wouldn’t extend him either. The Sox have a glut of infield hitters and some of them are going to need a place to play. The other problem is it seems most of their good young hitters all bat from the left side. So i don’t see a place for Yoshida on the Sox, he’s way over paid and is a DH which is where Devers will eventually end up. I won’t cry if Jensen, Martin, Yoshida, Pivetta or O’Neil are traded for good prospects.. I can’t wait for Mayer, Teel, and Anthony are in the big leagues.
Yaz – I agree with most of what you wrote. Wong didn’t always hit though, from 2022-2023 he batted just .229 with a .286 OBP. He totally changed his approach prior to this season, that’s why he’s doing so well.
Yaz – The biggest reason most think we got the WONG guy in the Mookie deal is because he was their 6th catcher and Mookie is still one of the best players in the game 4 1/2 years later.
As far as Wong being a crap hitter and a mediocre defender, just look up the numbers. He’s played in parts of four MLB seasons. In 2021 he played six games so the data is inconclusive and it was his best numbers!!! In 2022 he still sucked so he only played in 27 games and produced a 63!!! OPS+. Which sucks!! Then, in 2023 he finally got to play full time since we sucked at Catcher as an organization. He produced an 81 OPS+ which once again sucked!!!
So going into to 2024 he sucked three years in a row not counting his time in LA where he was 6th on the depth chart. Should anyone have expected his career year? NO!!! We are all glad it’s happening but we can’t wait until Teel shows up and this guy goes to back-up where he belongs. His current 142 OPS+ is absurd. Batting him in the top half of the line-up is absurd. He’s Kiki Hernandez in catcher’s gear.
At the end of the 2028 season he will be a free agent. His formative years is the value provided to Boston for Mookie Freakin Betts. The enormity of the screw job by Friedman is measured by how much better are his numbers than any of the five catchers ranked ahead of him in the LA system in 2020. Could we have done better? NO DOUBT. Has he established himself as a league average player? Not yet so as of now he’s provided no incremental value to Boston. Had the team traded for or picked up a free agent catcher they could have found someone with better stats over the last four years. Thus, NOBODY should be thinking Wong is a worthwhile asset for Boston, he’s just another league average or below roster filler. No future with Boston after Free Agency in 2028.
We should target players with a future not guys with unwarranted hot streaks that have limited skills.
@Yaz. Finally? Where were all you guys this past off season when I was the only one saying make this year a training year by playing the kids? I might have not seen or heard any of you while getting yelled at and dodging concrete filled waffle balls, but I am pretty sure I was the lone voice this past off season.
“Finally”. Shheeesh!
How do you get the concrete in the whiffle balls? Doesn’t it just leak out thru the side?
DBH – I will vouch for you! You definitely did write that, although there were some others who also did (GASox being one of them).
I know I didn’t because I always want to win and every year I retain some optimism with my “path to the postseason” posts. I don’t think anybody expected teams like the Jays, Rays, Astros and Rangers to be as bad as they’ve been …. but it’s helping to keep the Sox in the WC race so nobody is complaining!
It will be very, very interesting to see how Sox management approaches the trade deadline.
DBH – I was with you until I went on the IL!!
@ FPG and TF… thanks. And TF, you were mostly with me, I remember that. But you also wanted an Ohtani for a minute… until you saw the Bill lol.
@JoeBrady… I didn’t stop dodging to ask. Did I mention I suck dodgeball?
Quick your whining. Your reflexes are probably twice as good as mine having to dodge concrete-filled whiffle balls.
Lol! I have GA beat by a half step, maybe even a full lol
Redsox have set themselves up Perfectly
Rick – Let’s see who they decide to trade and who they decide to keep, that will make or break this franchise for many years. Remember they’ve lucked out many times, such as not signing Jose Abreu and trying hard but failing to trade Duran.
Fever – The compensation plan for young players says due to Duran’s four years of arbitration rather than three, he should sign a long term contract in the early spring of 2027. Until then he should get fair value through arbitration. If his numbers are all-star quality over the next 3 years they should sign him to 6 years with mutual options for 3 more years but ONLY if he’s all-star caliber. Otherwise, the money goes to others who are all-star quality. That way you don’t get screwed out of a Mookie or over pay like a Devers. The best players get the best deals.
Can logical signings happen with Henry in charge? I have no idea.
TF – Obviously I’d like Duran to stay with the team for many years, but I still think if Anthony and Abreu are starters by middle of next season they will trade Duran because of his age. As it is his talents are wasting away in LF, especially in Fenway.
Did you see that game saving catch Duran made in the 9th inning Saturday? He belongs in CF where his speed can be utilized to it’s fullest, but that will never happen with Rafaela there.
Fever – I think RF is the toughest so I think Rafaela is the obvious choice for RF and Duran is the CF of the future. Abreu is the odd man out. Anthony will get LF when he’s ready and Abreu is either depth or trade bait. Clearly, Cora likes Abreu and doesn’t like Rafaela so until he gets canned nothing is a reflection of the future Red Sox outfield.
I have always liked Duran so I hope he plays his entire career in Boston along with Rafaela and Anthony. Abreu has a privileged status like Devers and even Wong. Once Cora is gone, logical line-ups will again be a possibility and winning will definitely increase.
TF – I agree RF in Fenway is tough, but CF is probably tougher. Lot more room to cover, having to deal with the triangle, and did you see Duran crash into the metal gate tonight? Freddie Lynn is at the game and talked about how it felt like he broke his back making a catch there in the ’75 World Series.
And remember as good an outfielder as Mookie is, JBJ was better and JBJ is the one who played CF.
BTW – You know who is not a good outfielder? Springer. Tonight that dude gave up on an easy fly ball near the crowd, it reminded me of JD Drew. LOL!!!
Fever – This may be hard to believe but it’s been reported that RF is bigger because of the Green Monster. It’s tricky in the triangle area so it’s often considered more difficult but the size, the short Pesky pole and the low fence and the plentiful acreage supposedly makes RF the toughest field to play defense. I think Rafaela is the better defender but Duran’s speed makes him superior to Abreu in my opinion. That’s why when Cora leaves, it will be interesting to see who plays where when Anthony is ready. Clearly, Anthony will be LF so who is the odd man out? I say Abreu. Too streaky as a hitter. Lots of multi-hit games but not enough games with hits. He seems to be trying to mimic Devers too much. Aggressive big swings create streaky seasons and sometimes like Bellinger they lead to disastrous seasons.
Springer is paranoid due to injuries. Maybe we can just call it gen shy near the wall. Harper went through that early in his career when he was missing so much time with contact plays. Moving him to 1B was smart. I think Springer’s bat is good enough for them to rethink where to play him. He might be best as a DH.
TF – I agree without question RF in Fenway is very tough to play, but the CF always has much more ground to cover because they have to cover both the right center gap and left center gap.
Springer seems like one of the worst contracts in baseball. Did you see his awful throw on the last play of the game? It looked like my sister threw the ball. LOL!!
As for his offense, look at how he’s trending.
2019 .974 OPS (last year of cheating Astros)
2021 .907 OPS
2022 .814 OPS
2023 .732 OPS
2024 .559 OPS
That is quite the steady and steep decline!
And he single-handedly killed two rallies last night.
4th inning, runners on 1B & 3B, he grounds into a doubleplay to end the inning.
6th inning, bases loaded, he flies out weakly to end the inning.
He’s got $60M left on his contract, so the Jays are stuck with him.
100 Comments
92 comments are hidden because you muted the comment authors
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I think I have only 2 RS fans muted and a handful of trolls. Are there like 92 comments from two people or is this a troll-fest?
a lot FPG and KD17/trolled comments
They are the only two RS fans I have muted. I cannot imagine having to read 92 of their posts.
Anyway, they certainly must be enjoying the season so far:)
I suspect most of us that haven’t muted them just ignore them. It’s mostly shameless compliments they bounce back and forth to each other along with blatantly violating the commenting policy which sadly the forum moderators seem to not do much about.
Not seeing an article on it yet, but Winck and Campbell back up, Booser and Keller optioned to Worcester. Interesting move but should overall strengthen the pen. I’m eager to see how Winck”s cutter looks after retooling it.
We all knew before you we follow the team Campbell pitched last night and sucked wink better than Keller but boozer better than soup
…like I said, some just enjoy wallowing in negativity and name calling. Enjoy the season!
@Joe, pretty good discussions happening here. Maybe you went a little heavy on the mute button lol
I remember when everyone was arguing over DD/Bloom. Mutes were being launched back and forth like drones on the front line in Ukraine hah.
I’ve never once regretted it. It is 10x easier to simply read pertinent posts. And especially not having to read “Great Comment!” on every reply.
Joe’s got you there and I wouldn’t call it a good discussion when it’s basically the same 2-3 people repeating the same talking points and praising each other
154 comments are hidden because you muted the comment authors
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It was only 92 hidden comments when I first posted this one day ago.
Joe -There were a couple of key contributors and for me if someone mutes Fever then they aren’t really baseball fans. They are people who don’t like when someone disagrees with them. There is a huge difference between intelligent baseball discussions that you might not agree with and people parroting others so they can have their 15 minutes in the spotlight. Those are the trolls you mention. They either direct negative comments at the commentator not the comments or they don’t have the baseball knowledge to share intelligent baseball comments so they repeat what others have said or quote websites inaccurately. Those are the trolls that should be muted. Disagreeing with opinions that are supported with facts but don’t agree with your personal beliefs are not Trolls.
If you had a BS detector wristwatch that you wore while reading the comments on this website, or watching post game interviews with Cora or public releases from Ownership it would be going off all the time. Cherish when it doesn’t go off while reading comments and lock in on discussions with the knowledgeable contributors whether they agree with your opinion or not. That’s what makes sites like this enjoyable to participate in.
TF – Thank you for defending me, I appreciate it! Since I can’t see the person to whom you’re responding, I’m guessing it’s one of the spectrum children who hang out under Red Sox columns totally obsessed with me and constantly talking about me even though I muted them a long, long time ago.
And since you referred to them as Joe, I am certain it’s the biggest snake of them all. One of the reasons I muted him was because of how nasty he treated you.
Another reason is because he’s a frontrunning chameleon who doesn’t post when the Sox are losing, only when they are doing well does he show up.
Another reason was because he has often trashed real Red Sox fans, and it’s not a coincidence he’s a NY’er who is a Yankee fan that has often talked about attending Yankees games in Yankee Stadium but never Red Sox games anywhere.
Another reason is he always runs to his safe space whenever he’s proven wrong, like an immature teenage girl. That’s why him and the others still constantly talk about me, apparently my embarrassing them by correcting them so often has left them with emotional scars. LOL!!
Long ago he bragged about muting you, consider yourself lucky. He is not worth your time or attention because you know 10 times more about baseball than he does. He likes numbers, not baseball.
Enough about him, let’s enjoy tonight’s game and be grateful we aren’t Jays fans!!! What an amazing win for the Sox, led by Duran who if he keeps this up could find himself getting plenty of MVP votes. He’s doing it all and I’m loving every minute of it!
Fever – You are welcome!!
FYI…. I watch the MLB games using their app so I can listen to the announcers for either team usually. I always pick the opponent’s announcers because I don’t need the sunshine shot up my hind quarters by the clowns that suck up on NESN. TOR announcers thought Duran should be a lock for the all-star game and should get some MVP votes.
I was really happy to see everyone is not all about Devers. Duran got far more praise than Devers despite him hitting the HR. His defense brought up discussions of poor footwork and throwing off balance.
Vladdy always seemed like a butcher to me at 3B but his 1B play has improved tremendously. It’s nice to see a legacy player have the humility to admit he’s not worthy of a position. Being coddled since 16 has prevented Devers from learning the word humility. Every game he plays 3B and hurts the team I like him even less than the day before. If only TEAM was in his vocabulary.
Side note. My son’s gone to two games this season and tonight was one of them. He has early starts in the morning along with his wife so weekday games are usually early leaves since Boston is often behind. YEP…. second time in a row the early leave led to a victory!! I texted him to leave early every time they are behind to help the team!! haha Thank goodness for Quick Pitch!!
TF – Vladdy really shocked me when he shaved his head last week, but it seems to have done the trick. He’s been smoking the ball since then.
But without any support, I think the Jays are done. They’ve lost 7 in a row, their hitting is severely lacking, their bullpen is a mess, and wow is their defense bad!
They totally gave the game away with their bad defense. The shortstop and 3B letting that easy popup drop, Horwitz playing 2B just to get his bat in the lineup despite his having only 9 career starts at 2B, and even KK botched a play in CF that he used to always make.
I’m very glad the Sox have 9 more games against the Jays, wish it was more!
Interesting stat, the past NINE series between the Jays & Sox have been all sweeps. What are the odds?? Let’s hope it continues!!
Fever – Last non-sweep was June of 2022!! The trend is for BOS to sweep early in the year and TOR late in the year.
This year is a bit like 2021 in that by the mid season mark BOS is close to being a playoff contender prior to the all-star game and right now they are leading the series with NY 2-1 with 10 left, TOR 4-0 with 9 left, TB 4-3 with 6 left and are getting beat up by BAL 1-5 with 7 left.
The key to maintaining any momentum will be whether their no name stars can continue over performing beyond reality and how bad will Devers’ slump be in the second half before he picks it up in Sept like he usually does. It would help if guys like O’Neill stay healthy so Duran, Casas, Rafaela don’t have to carry the team when the no names shut down and go back to being sub league average players.
It will also be interesting to see if the league adjusts to Breslow’s new pitching approach and starts laying off pitches that are out of the strike zone. The change has been huge, lets hope it doesn’t end as a new book written by our opponents gets distributed to everyone. It’s been a great upgrade especially if it can last.
@FPG. I have never muted anyone. Who wants to discuss different ideas with people who agree with them? You and I have had some great disagreements! I remember when you posted your win-lose prediction formula thing for last season and everyone was blowing a gasket. I loved d8scussing that with you!
And OMG, how about me and TF throwing chairs at each other when he wanted Ohtani?
Good hearted, fun, arguing about ideas is what this type of site is for, so don’t get down about it, bro.
DBH – Thanks man, I appreciate it!
While I do wish everyone here was friendly and focused on baseball instead of personal attacks on others, there’s plenty of people here who I really enjoy interacting with and you are certainly one of them.
As for the muting, it’s all about respect. If the same people are constantly disrespecting me, there’s no reason for me to continue reading their posts. Some of them have openly admitted they are just looking to engage in trashtalking, that doesn’t appeal to me.
I don’t mind disagreements… What bothers me is the name-calling. We are all fans or we wouldn’t be here, and attempts to label people as the “right kind of fan” or “wrong kind of fan” are frankly insulting. Certainly nobody here knows me well enough to be entitled to that kind of judgement.
It is also wearying to have the same opinionated negative narratives dragged into EVERY conversation. That isn’t to say they are fundamentally in error, just overblown. And they detract from all of the good stuff going on.
Celebrate the emergence of Houck and Duran, two true All-Stars. Enjoy Devers for what he does (very) well rather than focusing on his weaknesses. And whatever his flaws, Cora clearly hasn’t killed this team YET. In fact maybe he has helped some of the kids settle into being productive major leaguers?
So many positives surrounding this team, currently in playoff position *without* Casas for most of the season, and *before* Mayer, Anthony, and Teel have been promoted. A few guys are playing over their heads (but consider the clubhouse atmosphere and leadership that is allowing that to happen), but the team as a whole is coming together really nicely. They are competitive, even if there are a few remaining holes: second base (or shortstop with Hamilton moving to second), first base (until Casas returns), and DH (apologies to Yoshida but his career fell off a cliff in the middle of 2023 and has not shown any real signs of recovery).
I just spent two hours on a lengthy essay for the other forum, arguing that Houck and Duran are 100% legit. Compare to Derek Lowe and Johnny Damon, perhaps, but these guys might be even a tad better — tough to make comparisons across eras. Anybody with a solid grasp of baseball history shouldn’t feel slighted by either of those comps!
And arguing that the Red Sox need to finally go “full throttle” and grasp this opportunity. They aren’t a lock for the playoffs, but their chances at this point are better than *anybody’s* chances are at the start of a season. The window of contention opens NOW, and it is time to seize it. They might be even better next year, but so what? Doesn’t mean they need to give this opportunity away.
Much baseball left to play and enjoy. I really *don’t* want to get dragged into the back-and-forth, the droning negativity, and the name calling here. Just put me down as one who was skeptical at the start of the season, merely hoping that the kids would show progress, but who has been VERY pleasantly surprised this year and is enjoying it fully.
Promise I’ll drop in after the season, as I have here and there over the years. If people still want to wallow in negativity, I’ll listen to it then?
tff – Fantastic post, thank you!! I think most of us feel the same way as you, the namecalling and constant negativity is a real turnoff.
For instance one person comes to Red Sox articles only to namecall and bash Red Sox fans while pretending to be a Red Sox fan themself. That’s the level of illness some here have. I mean I know those who are obsessed with numbers tend to have anti-social personality disorder, but come on …. normal people come here to enjoy themselves and have fun talking baseball, they don’t come here to anger others and treat every discussion as a contest they are determined to ‘win”.. Sure age probably has something to do with it sometimes, but some of these people are clearly older than 18.
Any time you want to have fun talkin’ Sox, I am always here for you. I watch or listen or attend nearly every game, including pre-game shows and post-game shows, which is how I’m able to bring so much interesting information here. And I’m always happy to talk about players such as Duran, Houck, Abreu, Devers, Bernardino, Pivetta, Casas, etc.
As for Cora, I’ve been saying all season he’s doing a better job managing because he wants a fat new contract. He himself admitted the past few years really got to him, he wasn’t in a good place, he was physically and mentally out of shape, and he didn’t do a good job managing. But credit where it’s due, he’s been much better this year. His lineups have improved, he’s using his starting pitchers better by letting them go longer, And he’s not over-resting his regulars as he’s done in the past, no chance he would have allowed Duran to play every day in prior years.
Like the Red Sox announcers have been saying all along, teams are gifting the Red Sox wins and they are also being caught by surprise with the Red Sox running game, but as long as it helps the Sox stay in contention we will take it!!
Wish I had time to follow all the pre- and post-game stuff! I’m busy in the evenings, working in the garden and getting dinner ready, so I often find myself tuning in for the second inning and turning out the lights shortly after the final out. So always welcome any insights you glean from those!
Cora was in a bad place the last couple years for sure. Calling out the GM at the trade deadline is NOT cool (even if said GM richly deserved it), and the negativity infected the team. Part of their second-half slumps the last couple years has been the inability of the GM to come up with meaningful roster additions. (Robertson and Urias, really?!?) But part has been all the negativity surrounding the team.
Did you catch Millar’s interview with Duran yesterday? Hilarious! I absolutely LOVE listening to Duran (and Millar ain’t half bad himself). One thing he said really stood out — they are “keeping it simple”. Which for Duran means going out there and hitting the f****** s*** out of the ball. (Given that this is Duran, there is almost never going to be a way to put it in ‘polite’ language.)
He has a ton of Pedroia in him, writ large. Same kind of inner fire. He plays with emotion, respects 90 feet as Millar put it, is screaming his f****** head off on the field. Pedey learned to keep things (mostly) clean for the cameras, but you know the language that he was using on the field. And I don’t care – it was coming from his soul, the right words at the right time.
The job of Cora and the coaches is to “keep it simple” for the players. As you said before, don’t drown them with analytics. Those are for the coaches (and the organizational coordinators) to study, to figure out what players can try to unleash their potential. They are doing a good job of that this year, and it shows on the field. Not sure they had a productive relationship with the front office under Bloom.
Keep it simple. Respect 90 feet. Duran came close to stealing a hit on a routine ground ball, first AB in one of the Cinci games. He stole a double on a frigging pop fly yesterday! And of course they had to hold the walk-off celebration at second base, because he wasn’t slowing down at first.
I know you believe they were “trying hard” to trade Duran, but I really doubt it. If they had tried even a little bit, they would have succeeded with ease — too much talent there for 29 other teams to pass on. Rather you saw who did get traded. I’m thinking Breslow made the right choice there?!? My guess is that it was the random pundits who were “trying hard” to trade Duran, not anybody actually involved with MLB. Same situation with DD’s trade of Moncada, holding on to the “lower ranked and unathletic” Devers. Totally the right move by the people in charge, even if the pundits were all over the place.
But back to Duran… He is the team leader. Not Devers — Devers is merely a firm supporting pillar. He is fundamentally more of a follower than a leader. The vocal leader doesn’t need to be the best player on the team (though he might be in this case), but he very much needs to be somebody who plays the game the right way. That doesn’t give up when a crappy reliever drops four runs while struggling to get one out. Who screams his f****** head off when Zach Kelly comes in to blow away the Yankees with the bases loaded and no outs in a 4-3 game. This team hasn’t really had that since… Varitek and Pedroia? Some great players since, but more subdued. (Though Betts was a joy in his own way, always having fun out there.)
From an analytics perspective I can see why somebody might question giving Duran a long-term deal.. He is already under team control through the age of 31, and they have prospects coming up (Abreu, Anthony, Campbell, Bleis) who could conceivably replace him in the field. But when you have a young team like this, you keep your “veteran” leadership around. Refsnyder, for as long as his body allows him to continue. Duran, on a sweet 6 year deal that takes him through the age of 33, with a handshake promise to renew his contract after that as long as he is playing. Houck — age means less to pitchers than to hitters. These guys are “veterans” in that they’ve been through a lot the last few years, worked hard to get where they are, but they are also the next wave of leadership.
I know Theo understands the human side of the game, even if he is only involved as a consultant. I know Breslow understands it. There are others in the front office who don’t — but they need to step back and let the experts run the team. (That is my biggest hope for Theo, that he will tell the ownership group when they need to back off and support their GM.)
Contracts aren’t usually done mid-season, but I would welcome exceptions to that. This is a great crew and will only get better as more talent matures from the minors.
Speaking of which, I’ll go out on a limb here, but Meidroth has upped his exit velocities the last month at AAA. That was the ONLY remaining real flaw in his game, and I’d really like to see him get a try at the major league level. He has more Brock Holt in him than Pedroia, but given the problems at second base this year I believe he could add to the club — and Holt! was a darned good player through his prime.
tff – My secret is MLB.TV ….. I have it playing on the phone when I’m not home or not able to sit in front of a TV. I do kinda wish I had access to NESN+ because I’m a big Pap fan and I’d really like to see how he does on the new show tonight. Did you see what he did during the game yesterday? Hysterical …. he really pushes the envelope, I love it! I’m such a big fan I own a Papillon and of course named it Papelbon ;O)
I totally agree about Cora and the trade deadlines. Whether it was Bloom’s doing or ownership, either way the players got flat-out deceived and lied to about getting rewarded for playing well and being in a good position at the deadline. It’s not a coincidence that’s when the team really nosedived last year.
And that’s precisely why I don’t want to get my hopes up too high right now, because ownership is so intent on waiting for MAT to become established before going into GFIN mode. Let’s say at the deadline the Sox are no worse than within 2 games of the final WC spot. Will management still sell off Tyler, Pivetta, Jansen, Martin etc like they have planned? Or will they keep the team intact and GFIN? There’s no scenario where they will take on net salary with trades, that much I know. It will be a very, very interesting situation in late July.
Yeah Duran is a fantastic person to listen to …. his response when Cora jokingly told him he would be benched last Friday was hilarious!
Last night when Kiermaier was at the plate and Youk and Millar were talking about him, Millar just blurts out “I’m getting confused, there’s too many Kevins here!”. LOL!!!
Here’s something fascinating from last night’s pregame show you may have missed …. at least I think it was last night, sometimes they blend together LOL …. Cora actually came out and admitted they have given up on trying to make Devers the team leader. Yeah, we all knew he wasn’t a great candidate ….. but it was wild to hear Cora actually confirm it by saying Devers leads by example but Duran is the guy they want to be the top leader.
As for them trying to trade him before the season, there’s plenty of reports I could link here but think back to the situation prior to the season ….. the Sox were hellbent on Rafaela playing CF, and they didn’t need him in the infield with Story and Grissom expected to cover middle infield.
Abreu as a highly ranked rookie was expected to take over in RF and Tyler was expected to be the everyday LF with Ref expected to give Abreu and O’Neill some days off. So where would Duran have fit in? The season-starting injuries to Grissom and Ref, along with the early season injury to Story, is the only reason Duran was given the playing time to become what he is today. Otherwise he would have been gone eventually. And most Sox fans wanted him gone because all they remembered was the poor performance in 2022, his vaxx stance, and his injury last season. They thought what he did last season was a “fluke”. But not me! I have supported the guy since Day One, even after the Tapia error.
I’ll respond to the rest of your post later, it was very long which is great … love it!
I think there is a chance that ownership will be willing to take on salary, at least up to the luxury tax threshold. That would give them $19M to work with, more or less, which ought to be plenty.
On the other hand there is also the potential that Henry & Co. don’t care about the team any longer. I believe that spending money here is financially the right move — it will ultimately bring in more than what it costs by driving long-term fan engagement — but they may be listening to the wrong consultants? Some of the stuff coming out of ownership the last few years is just weird.
One of the big reasons why the team dived the last couple seasons was a lack of pitching depth. You can see that Breslow has given that a lot of attention this year, and thus far with solid results, but you can never have too much pitching. There is a reason they talk about the “dog days of August’. In particular, I believe Crawford would benefit from extra rest before his next start – that he likely won’t get. His velocity was down last time out.
Saw that joke between Cora and Duran. I love that they are able to joke like that without it being viewed as “disrespectful”. Because if you want a guy to be a leader, you need to let him speak his mind.
Also saw that comment with Devers and leadership. I think that has been clear to a lot of people for a long time, just with the housecleaning they had nobody else to turn to? Refsnyder has done a great job of stepping into the leadership vacuum, and of course Duran has emerged this year as the heart and soul of the club. I appreciate Devers for who he is, and never fault his effort or attitude, but he ain’t a great defender and he ain’t a guy to fire up a team. Neither was Bogaerts, if you want my honest opinion, even if he was somebody that a lot of players looked up to (with good reason). Some guys burn with a hotter fire than others. Note that it isn’t up to Cora to tell players who is or isn’t the leader. All he can do is recognize the fact of how the team is evolving.
If you think back to last season, Duran was the weakest regular defensive CF in the majors. I liked him in CF better than Duvall (who doesn’t belong there at this point in his career), but there was good reason to prefer Rafaela in CF. I know you’ve seen enough of Rafaela to know that he is superb in that role. There were also too many LHH corner outfielders on the roster: Verdugo, Duran, Abreu, and Anthony in the wings.
I don’t know why you think Abreu was (or is) a “top prospect”? That’s revisionist history, crafted to support a false narrative. Fangraphs had him as a 40 FV entering this season. Contrast that with Duran who graduated as a 50 FV. Duran was always seen as having greater potential than Abreu, reaching as high as #3 on the SoxProspects charts. Abreu topped at #7. Duran is a guy who projected as a first-division starter. Abreu projected as a platoon guy.
I like how Abreu has developed. Decent command of the strike zone, sneaky (pull) power, and generally strong RF defense aside from occasional miscues that will improve with experience. I don’t want to say anything bad about Abreu. I’ve compared him at times to Trot Nixon! But Nixon is a “reach” for Abreu, a level of professionalism and performance that he can strive to achieve. It isn’t a reasonable expectation for a “40” grade prospect and he isn’t to that level yet.
Back to the off-season pundits. None of them bothered to talk to Breslow, they just made their own assumptions. Can’t trade Verdugo, he’s their BEST PLAYER. Can’t trade Anthony, he’s the future. Can’t get anything for Abreu. So they should trade Duran for XYZ pitcher of the month. Ugh.
Now look at what ACTUALLY happened. Breslow came in. Thirty seconds later, he shipped Verdugo, their “best outfielder” off to the Yankees in exchange for a B prospect and a couple spare parts. (I like Fitts fine, think he will be a major leaguer, but he wasn’t exactly a rich return.) Turned around and got a similar role player in O’Neill with a skill set that better complements Abreu and the others.
And what did he do with Duran? Set him up with Kyle Hudson who worked with him closely throughout Spring Training to smooth his running (unnecessary motion makes it harder to track), on anticipating fly balls, and on finishing plays. Easy to dish on a guy for “not being good enough”, and of course that is the approach the pundits take. Much harder to see what he can become and help him find a path to become that.
I don’t mean to take away from Duran, as he is the one who put in that work to make that progress. But Breslow DIDN’T trade him when so many others thought that Verdugo should stay and Duran should go. Ought to be an easy call for a baseball person, because those 50 grade athletes don’t grow on trees, but you’d be amazed at how much people will overlook.
Duran has improved his offense this year, but his defensive improvements are even larger. He might be the best defensive CF on the team at this point. (And if not, he isn’t far off that.) Rafaela has the arm to play RF, at least, as does Anthony. Or perhaps Rafaela ends up back in the middle infield? Or somebody gets traded? But if that is the outcome, I’m pretty sure it won’t be Duran at this point.
The vaxx stuff ought to be water under the bridge by this point. Silly rule by Canada in the first place. Of course you remember the other player left home on that trip because he hadn’t been vaccinated?!? You can’t let something like that define a player, and those who are close enough to the team to see the full picture would never do so.
Apologies for the length, I eat, breathe, and dream Red Sox baseball. Only sport for me, 24/7/365.. So I can get carried away at times.
Fever – Some of the young inexperienced fans get upset when you point out data that reflects badly on a player. Perfect example is the Butcher of Boston. As a fan, it’s my right and civic duty to call out his horse crap fielding and I have since he arrived in Boston. Why? Because he constantly hurts the team.
If another fan doesn’t like me pointing it out over and over because it happens over and over too bad. They aren’t actually behaving like fans who are rooting for their team to win, they are fantasy sports people who root for players not the team. That’s not baseball, that’s fantasy baseball where rooting for individuals is acceptable. These are the under educated fans that annoy me most. They are sanctimonious hind quarters who don’t understand the difference between team and player.
This all started with Jordan in basketball when team players like Bird and Johnson got pushed out of the GOAT position they both deserved by the me generation fans who just wanted prolific individual play and the win or loss took a back seat. Same is true today with Devers.
When a guy like TFF17 tries to define what is ok and not ok to write, he’s showing his ignorance. This site doesn’t have a counter on how many negative comments can be made!!!. The number should roughly equal the number of bad plays or bad decision made by the front office or idiot manager.
Being negative after a WS team gets devastated by Bloom isn’t excessive complaining it’s completely justified complaining if you love your team and hate what happened to it. That’s what a fan does. They are team advocates!! Loving the players is fine as long as no one player becomes bigger than the team like Devers has become.
It’s a team sport and choosing how you support that team is your choice but to ask other fans to silence their criticism is such a myopic viewpoint it reeks of me generation thinking.
Fever I admire your patience with the me generation dictators who think they get to define how to behave on this website. I am too outspoken to tolerate their belief that they somehow get to dictate what is commented on and what is not. Comments by me are intended to inform, document issues and correct wrong statements made in the name of others who are not well informed. If you don’t like it, please mute me so I don’t have to read another inane comment. If you want to argue a point, simply do so with facts and I will gladly debate it based on my facts. We don’t have to agree but I find often new things are learned through the debate processes we go through. Those are my criteria for responding to comments. Nobody else needs to follow that script because unlike others I don’t dictate to others what tone, attitude or content must be included in comments. If you choose to be insulting then expect the same lack of respect. If you can’t handle others with different opinions, you are probably on the wrong site.
I’m glad you mentioned trash talking because there are a lot of young contributors or fans of other teams that seem to think that is the purpose of a site like this one. I don’t believe it is and I certainly would prefer if it didn’t exist on this site but it’s an open forum so it’s going to happen and it can’t be controlled just like writing only positive things can be controlled on this site. If you want a dictatorial control of the comments then use Over the Wall where negative gets you banned. This is a fan site not a marketing department website to further the business of the front office like Over the Wall and NESN.
Again, kuddos for your patience and keep writing because I’m looking forward to reading it.
Fever – Giving credit to Croa is such a benedict arnold move when you consider what he did to the game itself. He has no skills, he has no integrity and he damn sure hasn’t improved in 2024. Breslow has put handcuffs on the idiot so he doesn’t damage things as much. Smart move by Breslow but he should have fired the idiot.
Surprising people with their speed is a great observation as is catching them sleeping which seems to be the trademark of the post DD Red Sox. Look at the talent level since Mookie and Price left and clearly anything productive would be a surprise. Once Cora is gone and Breslow gets his guy at the helm I think surprising people will be a thing of the past.
tff – Great post!! I agree with almost all of it.
You ask why Abreu was a top prospect? He raked last year in Worcester with a .930 OPS in his first and only year in AAA. Then he raked after getting promoted to The Show with an .862 OPS and that’s why Vegas had him 5th in the league for ROY. MLB Pipeline had him #6 in the Red Sox farm system. Sure he was a late bloomer, like Duran, but he has come on really strong the last couple years.
As for Dugie, he truly was their best defensive outfielder last year. Of course he didn’t have much competition with Yoshida, Duvall, Ref and Duran who was just starting to become a great fielder.
They traded him for a few reasons. One, the issues with Cora (not running hard, being late, etc). Two, the money. O’Neill is making about $3M less than what Dugie is making. And most importantly, they didn’t see him as an extension candidate so it was a smart move trading him before his walk year.
Yep, I remember the other player left home … and a third one who was injured but wouldn’t have made the trip if he was healthy. It really ticked me off how some of the fanbase turned on their own players because of politics.
In summary we are about to see what happens when a team has stockpiled young talent …. too many players, not enough positions, some of them will have to go. Bottom line is you can’t send down a Hamilton or Valdez if they continue to play so well, or a Grissom, when guys like Yorke and Mayer are ready to make the jump. Some tough decisions will have to be made. … especially with their tendency to go with just a 4-man bench (including the backup catcher).
tff – Don’t apologize, I am exactly the same way! The only other sport I follow is basketball but not nearly as closely as baseball.
Red Sox fans are passionate, especially those like me from the Boston area. It’s kinda explained in a great 2005 movie starring Jimmy Fallon and Drew Barrymore ;O)
I’m actually 24/7/366 this year ;O)~
Yes, #6 in the Red Sox system is/was an appropriate ranking for Abreu at the start of the season. That’s where you end up as a “B” prospect who is major league ready. Prospect rankings vary, but SoxProspects does a pretty good job overall — they had Valdez at #10 just before he graduated, Abreu at #7, Murphy at #9… Contrast to Rafaela who topped at #3, graduated as the #4, and made at least some top-100 lists.
The farm system is decently stacked at this point with guys who might have star-caliber talent, including of course Mayer, Anthony, Teel, Bleis, Perales (oops!), and the newly promoted Cespedes. Keep an eye on Campbell, who has pushed through the minors almost as fast as Teel and is (so far) dominating Portland. Huge bat speed.
Rafaela is up there in potential, even if it is very raw. Guys like Abreu, Valdez, and Hamilton simply are not. (Yorke has some scouts convinced but others left doubtful. To my uneducated eye he is looking good at Worcester, though. Can’t speak to before that.)
A good GM like DD will trade from the “B” grade excess to acquire immediate ML upgrades. That’s how we got Abreu and Valdez in the first place! I know some accused him of “stripping the farm system”, but that was never a fair characterization. The guys he traded away weren’t anything special — except for arguably what he gave to get Sale, and nobody is complaining about that one.
Bloom was good at hanging on to his top prospects, but only because he sat on ALL his prospects like a dragon on a hill of copper pennies (with an occasional gem mixed in). Hoping that Breslow brings a little sanity and balance to the operations, as there is more mid-grade talent in the system than we can possibly keep on the 40-man roster this winter.
I like Meidroth at 2B, and think he would pair well with Hamilton, but I’m not going to cry if he gets traded in a deal that brings back star talent. The best use of “B” prospects is often as trade chips.
Also related to the above… The Red Sox maxed out their DRL with the promotion of the guy who replaced Cespedes in the FCL. (Likely that poor kid’s only claim to fame, though one can always hope.)
Will be a “bloodbath” (not my words but appropriate) following the draft.
Nice hit by Masa, that one was tagged! If he can keep doing that, I’ll eat crow and admit the error of my ways.
tff – Great post as always! I appreciate the info on prospects, as I don’t follow the minors very closely.
I agree Abreu and Valdez had dropped in the Astros farm system, but don’t a lot of prospects rise and sink throughout their minor league career? I believe Duran certainly did. Sometimes it’s just a matter of change of scenery and different developmental system.
tff – Good to hear! You probably know I was alone on an island all offseason supporting Yoshida, just like I was with Duran.
I still believe in Yoshida and hope he has the opportunity to return to the hitter he was for most of last year.
TF – I love your passion!! As you know I’ve always been a credit-where-it’s-due guy, and anything Cora does to help my favorite team win is something I can’t deny.
More and more I think Tek will be the next manager. Not just because he’s so good, but also because the team will benefit from continuity and Tek is probably the only guy who can provide it. Also I think the Red Sox realize if they bypass Tek he will likely manage some other team.
I have nothing against Cora, and am sure he will get a managerial job elsewhere with ease. He is well respected around the game.
But Varitek is one of my all-time favorites and will be a GREAT manager. I could easily see Breslow preferring to go that direction at the end of the season.
TF – Great post!! You are totally right, the young ones who incessantly talk about me do so because they couldn’t handle my disagreeing with them and my providing proof why. I agree it’s probably a generational thing, so many of them were coddled by their parents and never told when they were wrong. It’s sad, really. We all know the value of learning from our mistakes, but they will never learn because their mistakes are never pointed out. And then when you or I do point them out, they can’t handle it. Basically many of today’s parents are more focused on being their kids’ best friend instead of preparing them for the adult world.
Yes even though I don’t do social media, you can tell the trash talkers are bringing that behavior from Snapchat, Facebook, MySpace, TikTok, and X (formerly known as Twitter). That’s also why their posts are so short, because they are used to 40-character limits when using social media.
And YES they do try to dictate what others here do!!
When I don’t care for someone, which is rare, I simply mute them and never bring them up again. Live and let live, coexist, yadda yadda yadda.
But not them. No, they can’t just ignore people they disagree with … they try their best to SILENCE those who they disagree with. Rather than RESPECTING other people’s views, they try to force everyone else to turn against the people they don’t like. They think they run this place, even though they don’t even run their own lives as they continue to sponge off of mommy and daddy while getting high all day.
Anyway I appreciate your support and all the time and effort you put into your posts!
@FPG. I agree and disagree with you on Yoshi… still lol.
Yoshi has a skill set that plays in the majors. A solid player who hits for average. A prototypical #2 or #8 hitter who can play LF on a team with an easier outfield to play.
The problem is that skill set doesn’t play in Fenway, even if we did need a DH.
Breslow should look for teams that fit his skill set and see if there is either a bad contract swap to be made or better yet a trade for a decent player where w3 eat the contract, or a very long shot prospect and we eat almost no money.
Ref, Abreu, Duran, O’Neill, Ceddanne… there is a long line in front of him for playing time. The dude needs to go by the deadline no matter the cost. And that’s not in Yoshi, that’s on the FO
DBH – You could very well be right, especially if Wong continues to hit and his bat is needed in the lineup when he’s not catching.
BTW I cannot let this go unmentioned … 467 feet by Devers last night, longest of his career!!! He is locked in again, such a treat to watch him hit when he is.
@tff17. I mentioned Miedroth this past week. I am not sure why he hasn’t gotten more press. He has been better than Yorke for a longer time span. Yorke is hot right now and playing into all his hype. NOW is when they should trade Yorke, before he regresses to norm.
Meidroth should be called up. He will probably never be an all star, but the plays a solid game as a starter. Bench piece at worst. If he is your worst player, your are in a good place.
Both Yorke and Meidroth have made in-season improvements, improving the quality of contact. Meidroth’s EVs jumped around the beginning of June.
Yorke’s changes were more to his launch angle. He needs to hit line drives to be at his best, but for a while got away from that in chasing home runs. He doesn’t have the strength or plate coverage for that to work.
Not sure either is going to be a star or even an everyday player, but they are at least progressing. And yeah, toss Grissom and Valdez into that and you have too many guys with questionable futures.
DBH – Prospects are like stocks.
When they shoot up, they could be either Pump & Dump and crash back down (like Gamestop) or Long Term Play and continue to rise forever (like Apple, Microsoft and now Nvidia).
You never really know when a prospect will translate well to the majors (Mookie, Pedroia, Duran, etc) or be unable to carry that success to the majors longterm (Franchy, Dalbec, Rusney).
When prospects perform in the upper minors as well as Yorke has, I think it’s wise to see what they can do in the majors before deciding to trade them.
Sure they may bomb in the majors, thus decreasing their value. But IMO the risk of losing some value in that situation is better than the risk of trading a future MLB star like Bagwell.
There’s been way too many times when the Red Sox traded a prospect because they were blocked by a perceived “better” prospect, only to have it completely backfire. I trusted Dombrowski when he traded prospects, but Breslow has yet to earn that trust. And considering how hard he tried to trade Duran last offseason, I’m wary of him trading any other prospects.
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Agreed, but a good organization can make that call while they are in the minors. Baseball front offices are infinitely more professional than they were in the 1980s, partly because they’ve learned how to work in analytics. (Cooper was the prospect who looked good to scouts, Bagwell was the guy who could just plain hit. EVs and plate discipline metrics would have separated them.)
@FPF and tff17
Devers strikes me as a shy guy. I don’t think he ever wanted to be The Leader. I think that pure FO bs hype to sell his bloated extension. I think it really bothered Devers and it showed in his performance.
They shouldn’t force anyone, including Duran, to be the leader.
Nor can it just be seized like Casas tried to do. There 30 seconds, calls everyone kids, and declares himself ‘Leader’. I would bet my left nut that’s the reason his team mates are put off by him, it’s not that he sunbathe in the outfield.
Take it from an old, fat, jarhead. True leaders are not chosen. Leadership is earned through performance, time, and good decision making. It HAS to be organic!
Players will naturally gravitate to who THEY chose as a leader Ala ‘Tek or Pedro or Pedie or Papi.
If there is a Leader right now, to me it is Refsyder.
Anyway, just my thought on General Devers. Didn’t mean to rant lol
@tff17, ya bro… you found the right group to talk with. None of us known for our cliff note posts hah!
Yes, Refsnyder is a guy they all look up to. Kind of amazing for a journeyman like that, but it is a combination of his character and experience, even if he doesn’t have the talent.
But there is still room for a “sparkplug” like Duran.
You are spot on with Devers, he is a guy who will go out and do his job. He works very hard behind the scenes, including defense which is clearly not his forte. Just doesn’t treasure the spotlight. You can find space for a guy like that on a good team.
Casas is… odd? He is a complete hitting geek, not sure he gives the rest of his game enough attention. Definitely not somebody the other players should be trying to emulate, but the obsession with hitting might make him great? If he can stay healthy?
Damon, Pedroia, Duran… You need some fire on the club in addition to the guys who quietly go out and do their thing.
DBH – I think it’s because he’s ranked only 17th and not projected for the majors until next year.
Mayer and Yorke are 1 & 6 and projected for the majors this year.
Tff – I think Valdez is first man out, overall not a good offensive year and his defense has been really bad.
@FPG, you really ought to pay more attention to SoxProspects than to MLB Pipeline. Big difference between a fan site and a professional shill, and the people at SP really know their stuff.
SoxProspects has Meidroth at #11 (up from #14 at the start of the year) and projected on the same timeline as Mayer, i.e. “early 2025”. They have Yorke at #17 (down from #11 at the start of the year) and projected on a ‘mid 2025’ timeline.
I’m guessing that Yorke might rise a notch or two in the July rankings, as he has made great progress this last month. Meidroth may have hit his ceiling at #11. He is basically ready for the majors, but the guys ahead of him have much higher ceilings. Maybe he moves ahead of Sandlin, but Campbell is also mashing and almost has to move higher himself.
I agree that Valdez may be running out of time. He is on his third or fourth chance at the majors (depending on how you want to count it), and each time he starts well and then reverts to bad habits. His ceiling is a platoon 2B, which isn’t all that exciting in the first place, and he is struggling to reach/maintain that ceiling.
tff – In general I don’t pay a lot of attention to any sites that do rankings, because they are way wrong quite often (like rating the 2019 Red Sox farm system so poorly when it had Rafaela, Casas, Crawford, Houck, Bello, and Duran among others).
The reason why I use Pipeline is because they rank all MLB prospects, not just Sox prospects. And it’s on the Red Sox official website, so I would think it’d be more accurate …. right?
But the minors is not something I stay on top of, so I don’t have personal opinions on minor league players like I do with MLB players.
MLB Pipeline isn’t a terrible resource, but SoxProspects is better for the players in our own system. Among other things they give you a LOT more granularity about the player’s strengths and weaknesses, their current level and upside, and they maintain it on a monthly basis (the news feeds link daily). Ordinal rankings can get kind of silly, as it is tough to boil down a multi-dimensional picture into a single number.
Baseball America is the premier resource covering all 30 teams, but I’m not interested enough to pay for that subscription.
Will note that in 2019, most of those you cite were in the low minors. Guys with potential but also a lot of uncertainty. We are lucky that so many of them have developed as well as they have. A testament to the coaches in the organization and the hard work the players have put in.
Soxprospects isn’t directly affiliated with the red sox.
Yup. But MLB Pipeline is an MLB operation.
yes but FPG was referring to sox prospects. Sox prospects isn’t on the red sox site. He’s spreading misinformation again
Thought I was the one talking SoxProspects? Apologies if I didn’t phrase it clearly.
You were but fever wasn’t.
Typical dumb Cora move in last nights game. Bringing in Campbell was his predetermined script, instead of understanding the game situation. Luckily, Toronto manager is just as much a fool as Cora and the players bailed out Cora.
Who would you have brought in?
Winckowski is the better and more experienced pitcher. They needed 2.1 innings to close out the game, though, and for all I know Cora was thinking Campbell for the easier job, Winck for the 8th? Pretty sure I would have thrown a fit if Chase Anderson had been brought in to hold a one run lead, though, and the rest of the pen is gassed.
Glad they survived it, and the pen ought to be in better shape tonight.
Coop – Tonight the Red Sox announcers also criticized Cora for that decision. And after seeing how great Winck pitched tonight, it was further proof he should have gone in yesterday instead of Campbell. Tonight would have been a PERFECT situation for Campbell to return to the mound. But as we all know, Cora often lacks common sense.
Coop – Be fair nobody is as big a fool as Cora, not even Boone. So the TOR guy, best case, is the third biggest fool!!!
TF – Dave Martinez is right up there with those three. Intentionally walking a guy to pitch to Devers is high level insanity.
Bello crapped his pants again send him down to aaa like I said 5.55 era nice contract only 5 more years
Man, Bello is mentally imploding! Pulled after 55 pitches and 7 runs. They should have made him stay out there until he hit 100 pitches as a message
I wonder if it is the pressure of trying to live up to the extension.
Possibly, but he hasn’t really had a feel for his pitches since returning from the DL. Might be time to send him back to the minors to work it out there?
He wasn’t looking great for the first couple innings, but really fell apart after the Bad News Bears play that put KK on third. Tried to amp it up and just completely lost the strike zone.
He is under a mlb contract now. I don’t know if he can be sent down now.
Nah, he can still be sent down as long as he has options and less than five years in the majors. He’ll receive his full MLB pay either way, though, so it won’t hurt him financially even if it stings his pride.
He clearly needs to rebuild his game right now, and that’s a tough task at the ML level. None of his sliders were thrown for strikes, and his changeup was flat. If he *had* thrown any of those changeups in the strikezone they would have been pounded.
That leaves trying to overpower ML hitters with your fastball in hitters counts?!? Ugh.
tff – Right you are, the contract has nothing to do with whether he can be sent down.
Even if he had no options left, he could still be sent down if he consents to it. Jose Abreu went down to the minors this year and he’s been in the majors for about a decade.
With that said, I don’t believe he should be sent down now. Give him one more start against a pathetic Marlins lineup, if he struggles in Miami THEN send him down and bring up Cooper or let Winck fill in.
Jose Abreu had options remaining. Once a player has 5+ years of service time, they can only be optioned with their consent, If I’m not mistaken, that is how the Red Sox optioned Keller (who I believe has 5+ years of service time).
I’ll trust management to make the right call with Bello. I could see it going either way, but his location tonight was horrible and he was basically pitching backwards. If you are going to ultimately throw fastballs in the zone, make those your FIRST pitches, rather than setting the batter up with two or three foot-wide balls first.
That ain’t working against the Marlins either…
tff – That’s what I meant about Jose Abreu, he was in the majors too long to be optioned without his consent.
I still think Bello’s issues are more mental than anything, and a strong start against Miami could help resolve them. The dude gets rattled easily.
DBH – I never agreed with that whole letting-the-pitcher-get-hammered thing, I still remember when Valentine left in Lester against Toronto until he gave up 11 runs in just 4 innings. In my opinion the pitcher already knows he failed miserably, so what message is being sent? I think Bello’s confidence is already low, leaving him in for double digit runs would probably cause him to have even less confidence.
I don’t think the contract has anything to do with it, as he was really bad for most of last year too. The announcers kept saying the problem is Bello is being told to overthrow, he’s being told to throw too hard. He’s been at 98 MPH because they expect him to throw that hard. I just don’t agree with this constant max effort approach.
That’s the opposite of what I’ve been hearing… They’ve been encouraging him to sit 94-96 and locate in the zone. When he doesn’t overthrow, his pitches get decent movement.
He amped up the velocity after the error, which was when everything fell apart. Nobody wants him throwing 98, but I think it is instinctive for him under pressure.
This was from early in the season, but it is roughly consistent with what I’ve heard:
985thesportshub.com/listicle/red-sox-philosophy-fa…
Bailey wants him to throw all his pitches for strikes, not just the fastball. (If you look at his scatter chart tonight, the fastball was pretty much the only one in the zone.) But as Mazz correctly points out, it isn’t so much the pitch but the count and location. A fastball that works on the first pitch isn’t what you want to be throwing 2-0 or even 0-2. And you can’t simply lay a pitch randomly in the zone and hope for the best, you have to locate with purpose.
Bello’s mechanics are sloppy under the best of circumstances, and they fall apart under pressure. But equally important is that he doesn’t get the mindset of challenging hitters early in the count. He is constantly trying to get guys to fish, then after they get ahead he lays a fastball in the heart of the zone. Maybe you can get away with that in the minors, but not in MLB.
3 more errors rafella has 10 now send him down to aaa with Bello they don’t care they already got paid in full
Well, if you are goingvto be down 5, Tor lis the team to be down against. Sox can still pull it out
Can’t win them all, but with Toronto you are never out of it!
Winckowski really settled down into a groove after that first inning. Seems pretty definite that he is going into the rotation. Maybe send down Bello and bring Criswell back? While looking for a trade to lengthen the rotation a little?
DBH – Great post, I totally agree!! Jays bullpen isn’t the worst (Rockies), but it’s bad and their defense is also very bad.
Did you see the awful play on Tyler’s “triple”? Vladdy looked pathetic the way he nonchalantly backpedaled on it and fell down, plus Springer should have called him off and made the catch but he was too lazy to do so.
Same thing on the easy ground ball that Vladdy let get by him, trying to snag it off to the side instead of getting in front of it and using both hands.
As great a hitter as Vladdy is, the Jays do need to blow up the team and see what they can get for him.
Springer was playing very deep. Helped him make a nice play on Dom Smith, but cost him on O’Neill’s pop fly. Vlad should never have been trying to make that in the first place.
If Vlad comes available, the Red Sox should jump on it. He’s as close to a young Manny as they come.
tff – Youk and OB both said Springer could have made that catch but he likely assumed Vladdy would therefore Springer didn’t stay on it.
Yeah totally agree, once the ball drifted over the grass Springer should have called him off. Can’t really fault Vladdy for keeping his eye on the ball. I’m just not impressed with Springer’s lack of fundamentals.
Sox will never go after Vladdy, as 1B/DH will be tied up for a long time between Casas and Devers. Even if you mean right now making Vladdy the permanent DH, I like keeping the DH spot open for guys like Wong when he’s not catching or for resting guys from playing defense.
Have you heard anything on Casas? He had an MRI the other day and was supposed to go over the results with doctors yesterday, the silence is usually not a good sign. If he isn’t wet swinging by now, no chance he returns for Miami like he had hoped.
Yeah, Springer could have made the play, it was just a long run for him, and he lolligagged a bit. Probably thought Vlad had it lined up and mentally checked off the play like you said.
Vlad at DH would be worth keeping both Devers and Casas in the field. Admittedly not a good defensive alignment. Mostly I just love his bat.
Haven’t heard the results on the MRI. He has been dry swinging for a week now, is eager to progress, but to me early August makes a lot more sense than July 2. What HE wants to do and what makes medical/baseball sense might not always align, and he needs to accept that.
Did I note that Casas is an odd duck? Extremely driven, but in this case the body isn’t up to what he is asking.
tff – Casas is a pleasure to watch, on and off the field.
His SNB interview was legendary, still has plenty of people talking.
x.com/MacCerullo/status/1806061965149720770
Hope that links to the comments by Casas? The “dry swings” were all in his head. Loving it!
Financial Management of contracts is a very weak area for average fans. Maximizing value while minimizing costs should be the objective but most fans seem to think pounding their chests about signing a young guy who is doing well is a great accomplishment without regard to the financial consequences.
Six or seven years of pre-arb and arb seasons followed by 6 to 10 years of extended contract for all-star level players should be the goal. Depending on when the clock starts, the age of the player should dictate the extension. Here are the starting points by age of some of the best Red Sox young players and the year their extension should be offered and for how long based on their performance during their control years. Note that the gun wash jumped in the cases of Rafaela, Bello and Whitlock and so far only Rafaela’s doesn’t look in credibly stupid with years still separating the correct contract time versus what happened.
Cedanne Rafaela – Born SEP 2000.so 2024 is his 23 year old season and his pre-arb 1 season. That means his LT contract SHOULD have been offered prior to the 2028 season four years from now. At that point the understanding of his skills will be established and the keep don’t keep decision would be far more clear. He would be 29 in 2028 with two years of arbitration and picking the end year of the deal is all that is left. If he becomes a league average player by then there is no deal offered. If he’s an annual all-star then you probably sign him through 35 or at least 34. That would be 6 or 7 years so he would have played for Boston from 2023 to 2034 (7 year deal). Instead, he is now signed through 2031 without knowing if he will be likely to earn the amount of the contract. That’s very risky. By the end of 2027 we will have a far greater knowledge of his worth. If you believe in Rafaela, the may not seem as big but it’s huge when you consider you get to see FOUR more years of performance had you use the far more efficient approach to signing young players.
Houck – Born June 1996 is 5 years older than Rafaela and has 5 years and 90 games experience all during his pre-arb seasons!!! His 3.37 ERA and his 1.15 WHIP in over 350 Innings Pitched makes him a lot easier to evaluate than young Rafaela, Bello or Whitlock. This is why you wait until the end of the first year of arbitration to make an offer to a player. Houck will be 29 during his first year of arbitration so his contract should begin in 2026 at age 30. He will have two years or arbitration in the deal and should have 4 years of FA money in the deal. He’s likely to be an all-star this season so his payday should be big. An all-star pitcher should command $25MM per year in beginning in 2028 so a six year deal should be for $150MM but when you figure out his AAV over the 13 seasons with Boston his total pay will be far less than his contribution even with a 6 year $150MM contract. He clearly will have taken a home town discount and EVERYONE should be happy with that news.
Brayan Bello – Born in May of 1999, he is 25 years old which means 3 years younger than Houck. As an international signee he got to start in the majors at 23 while Houck started at 24 saving two years of play in the minors compared to Bello. Bello’s accomplishments are nowhere near Houck’s in that Bello’s ERA is 4.48 and has never been under four during his first three seasons. Houck on the other hand was only over 4.00 once in 2023 after Cora messed with wanting him to close, otherwise, he’s had the best ERA of the starters multiple times now. Bello, thanks to nepotism received a long term contract that starts in his pre-arb 2 season. That’s three years earlier than the suggested time frame and he had no credentials to justify the signing other than they liked him. The data was inferior to Houck by a huge amount and he was 3 years away from the logical signing point and had two less years of experience than Houck who had outperformed him. This was a huge mistake tacticly. Since signing the deal he’s regressed which would have been identified had the organization waited until the proper time evaluate a long term deal. Unlike Rafaeala who got paid too early, Bello is a perfect of why you shouldn’t do it whereas it’s too early to tell if the Rafaela deal will end in the same disappointment as the Bello deal.
Now it’s time for Casas and others to be lined up for offers. Let’s start with Casas.
Tristan Casas – Born JAN 2000 and is considered 24 in 2024. Casas like many others is a pre-arb 2 in 2024 so his long term deal should be offered in the spring of 2027. That way he can prove himself and his value for the 2024 through 2026 seasons. His long-term contract would begin when he is 27 and include two arbitration years in the deal and 6 FA years taking him into his mid 30s if he proves to be an all-star quality player by the end of 2026 and as of right now I think there is an excellent possibility that he will. Once his accomplishments are tallied at the end of 2026 it makes perfect sense to make an 8 year offer and lock him up through his prime years.
Every young player on the team has a defined timetable for evaluation and that should include three per-arbitration years and one arbitration year so the long term deal starts in ARB 2 and lasts for 6 to 8 years including two ARB years. If Boston keeps investing based on politics and not a sound business practice this team is going to need free agents to make it back to a world series. If they follow a smart business plan, this team could look like the 2018 team by 2028.
TF – Awesome post, thank you!!
Yeah smart move to wait at least a couple years before signing Casas. We have no idea how the rib injury will affect his swing longterm, if it does it probably won’t be for the best.
Thanks guys. For some reason I thought options went away with a new contract. Thanks for the info.
@Fpg. Dude! Did you just compare me to Booby V? Ouch dude! But point taken hah!
@Fpg and tff17… good info on making Bello over pitch. Hadn’t heard that before. That is how guys end up needing TJ surgery. Hope they fix that.
@Trollfree, you and eye pretry much see eye to eye on extensions. I will say this years batch were so low cost that it is win win. If they ever perform, great deal. If not, costs are so low Boston can more than afford to eat them. Inlike them better than paying 35 year Olds 40 million per until they are 76.
Well. Kid Sox had a bad game. Turn the page. On to the n3xt game. They are still the Wild Card Kid Sox for a day!
Absolutely agree, Bello needs to establish consistent mechanics and let his fastball sit at 94-96, he is comfortable in that zone. Messing up your mechanics to juice an extra 2 mph is a sure ticket for TJ surgery. One of the reasons why you don’t let guys hang out there when they are melting down like that.
The early contracts will be made or broken by what happens during the late years if the deal. The team was never going to nontender Rafaela or Bello or Whitlock over their first five years, when the salaries are low. So if they mature enough to earn the contracts in years 6 and out, then it is a win for the team. If not, then at least the players are set for life. Definite gamble to writing these contracts early, but it is a mistake to judge them in the first six months.
DBH – Nobody compares to Bobby V!
Right now he is where he belongs, running sports restaurants and college sports programs while claiming to have invented the sandwich wrap. LOL!
And I like your optimism, the series sweep streak has ended but the series is still very winnable.
Hopefully Wong is back tonight? Dude needs to learn, conceive during Spring Training …. not right after summer!!