AL East Notes: Duran, Romano, Orioles, Abreu

Financial Management of contracts is a very weak area for average fans. Maximizing value while minimizing costs should be the objective but most fans seem to think pounding their chests about signing a young guy who is doing well is a great accomplishment without regard to the financial consequences.

Six or seven years of pre-arb and arb seasons followed by 6 to 10 years of extended contract for all-star level players should be the goal. Depending on when the clock starts, the age of the player should dictate the extension. Here are the starting points by age of some of the best Red Sox young players and the year their extension should be offered and for how long based on their performance during their control years. Note that the gun wash jumped in the cases of Rafaela, Bello and Whitlock and so far only Rafaela’s doesn’t look in credibly stupid with years still separating the correct contract time versus what happened.

Cedanne Rafaela – Born SEP 2000.so 2024 is his 23 year old season and his pre-arb 1 season. That means his LT contract SHOULD have been offered prior to the 2028 season four years from now. At that point the understanding of his skills will be established and the keep don’t keep decision would be far more clear. He would be 29 in 2028 with two years of arbitration and picking the end year of the deal is all that is left. If he becomes a league average player by then there is no deal offered. If he’s an annual all-star then you probably sign him through 35 or at least 34. That would be 6 or 7 years so he would have played for Boston from 2023 to 2034 (7 year deal). Instead, he is now signed through 2031 without knowing if he will be likely to earn the amount of the contract. That’s very risky. By the end of 2027 we will have a far greater knowledge of his worth. If you believe in Rafaela, the may not seem as big but it’s huge when you consider you get to see FOUR more years of performance had you use the far more efficient approach to signing young players.

Houck – Born June 1996 is 5 years older than Rafaela and has 5 years and 90 games experience all during his pre-arb seasons!!! His 3.37 ERA and his 1.15 WHIP in over 350 Innings Pitched makes him a lot easier to evaluate than young Rafaela, Bello or Whitlock. This is why you wait until the end of the first year of arbitration to make an offer to a player. Houck will be 29 during his first year of arbitration so his contract should begin in 2026 at age 30. He will have two years or arbitration in the deal and should have 4 years of FA money in the deal. He’s likely to be an all-star this season so his payday should be big. An all-star pitcher should command $25MM per year in beginning in 2028 so a six year deal should be for $150MM but when you figure out his AAV over the 13 seasons with Boston his total pay will be far less than his contribution even with a 6 year $150MM contract. He clearly will have taken a home town discount and EVERYONE should be happy with that news.

Brayan Bello – Born in May of 1999, he is 25 years old which means 3 years younger than Houck. As an international signee he got to start in the majors at 23 while Houck started at 24 saving two years of play in the minors compared to Bello. Bello’s accomplishments are nowhere near Houck’s in that Bello’s ERA is 4.48 and has never been under four during his first three seasons. Houck on the other hand was only over 4.00 once in 2023 after Cora messed with wanting him to close, otherwise, he’s had the best ERA of the starters multiple times now. Bello, thanks to nepotism received a long term contract that starts in his pre-arb 2 season. That’s three years earlier than the suggested time frame and he had no credentials to justify the signing other than they liked him. The data was inferior to Houck by a huge amount and he was 3 years away from the logical signing point and had two less years of experience than Houck who had outperformed him. This was a huge mistake tacticly. Since signing the deal he’s regressed which would have been identified had the organization waited until the proper time evaluate a long term deal. Unlike Rafaeala who got paid too early, Bello is a perfect of why you shouldn’t do it whereas it’s too early to tell if the Rafaela deal will end in the same disappointment as the Bello deal.

Now it’s time for Casas and others to be lined up for offers. Let’s start with Casas.

Tristan Casas – Born JAN 2000 and is considered 24 in 2024. Casas like many others is a pre-arb 2 in 2024 so his long term deal should be offered in the spring of 2027. That way he can prove himself and his value for the 2024 through 2026 seasons. His long-term contract would begin when he is 27 and include two arbitration years in the deal and 6 FA years taking him into his mid 30s if he proves to be an all-star quality player by the end of 2026 and as of right now I think there is an excellent possibility that he will. Once his accomplishments are tallied at the end of 2026 it makes perfect sense to make an 8 year offer and lock him up through his prime years.

Every young player on the team has a defined timetable for evaluation and that should include three per-arbitration years and one arbitration year so the long term deal starts in ARB 2 and lasts for 6 to 8 years including two ARB years. If Boston keeps investing based on politics and not a sound business practice this team is going to need free agents to make it back to a world series. If they follow a smart business plan, this team could look like the 2018 team by 2028.