Willy Adames Is Putting 2023 Behind Him

Brewers shortstop Willy Adames had a down year in 2023, relative to his own standards. But here in the early parts of the 2024 season, he’s looked more like the pre-2023 version of himself. Even better than that, in fact.

Adames has been fairly consistent in being above average at the plate. That has been mostly due to his power output and in spite of some high strikeout totals. He also steals a few bases and has been considered strong on defense at a premium position. The glovework was a bit more contested earlier in his career but the praise has become more unanimous over time.

He debuted with the Rays in 2018, getting into 85 games that year. He struck out in 29.4% of his plate appearances but also launched 10 home runs in that time. His .278/.348/.406 batting line translated to a 110 wRC+, indicating he was 10% above league average.

In his first full season in 2019, he got into 152 games and doubled his home run total to 20. However, since that was the “juiced ball” season and the grading curve was thrown off, he was actually considered slightly below average with a 99 wRC+. In the small sample of the shortened 2020 season, he hit another eight homers and slashed .259 .332 .481 for a wRC+ of 126. The next two full seasons saw him continue to strike out a decent amount, but with home run tallies of 25 and 31, leading to a wRC+ of 120 and 109 in those campaigns. He spent most of those two years with the Brewers after being traded early in the 2021 season.

As mentioned up top, there was a dip in 2023, which looks like it may have been mostly about luck. His 11.1% walk rate was actually a career high and his 25.9% strikeout rate was a career low. The 24 home runs were a tad lower than the previous two seasons, but not by much. But when the ball didn’t go over the fence, his batting average was just .259. That was almost 40 points below last year’s .297 league-wide batting average on balls in play and below his career rate of .311. He finished the year with a line of .217/.310/.407 and a 94 wRC+.

That may not have been entirely bad fortune, as his batted ball metrics also dipped alongside his results. His average exit velocity was 87.4 miles per hour last year, whereas he was between 88.5 and 89.5 in the previous four campaigns. His 36.5% hard hit rate was also down, as he finished between 40.5% and 44.7% in the three prior years.

Perhaps the lack of zip partially explains why he was finding so many gloves last year, but he’s had no such problems here in 2024. Through his first 30 games this year, he has a .313 BABIP, a huge turnaround from last year and right in line with his career mark. His average exit velocity is back up, currently at 89.5 miles per hour for the year. His hard hit rate has also recovered, currently at 42.7% this season. He already has six home runs while his 12.7% walk rate and 20.1% strikeout rate are both career bests. His .278/.373/.496 batting line translates to a huge 147 wRC+.

Although the Statcast metrics somewhat supported his decline in results last year, the 2023 season looks like a clear outlier compared to the rest of his career. Perhaps Adames was playing through some kind of injury that was tugging him down last year. He was struck in the head by a foul ball in the dugout in late May and went on the concussion-related injured list, returning a week later. He was hitting just .205/.292/.384 before that injury, however, with a .234 BABIP. After his return, his BABIP crept up to .274 as he slashed .223/.318/.418 the rest of the way.

Regardless of the cause, the 2023 dip seems to be in the rear-view mirror now. His Statcast metrics are back to pre-2023 levels and his overall results have been even better, particularly with that improved plate discipline. Even if he doesn’t maintain this excellent form all the way through the end of the year, a bounceback at the plate should set him up nicely as he heads into free agency this winter.

In terms of his glovework, Defensive Runs Saved is a long-time fan. That metric gave Adames a -8 in his rookie debut but has been in positive territory in each season since. Outs Above Average took longer to come around, giving Adames a negative grade in three of four years from 2018 to 2021. But he was given grades of +10 and +16 in the last two campaigns, with a mark of +4 already here this year. His +29 OAA since the start of 2022 is second among all big league shortstops, trailing only Dansby Swanson. His 17 DRS in that time is fourth in the league among shortstops.

Adames has roughly average sprint speed but can steal a few bases, as mentioned. He has between four and eight steals in each full season of his career, with four already in the early parts of this year.

He also has a strong track record in terms of health. He had the aforementioned stint on the concussion IL last year, and previously missed about three weeks due to a high left ankle sprain in 2022 and about two weeks in 2021 due to a left quad strain, but that’s it. Apart from his rookie season, when he was frequently optioned to the minors, he’s never played less than 139 games in a full season.

All of these ingredients should come together nicely for Adames this winter. The most recent offseason was icy for the players and it’s hard to know how much to reset expectations because of it, but everyday shortstops tend to get paid. Since the end of the 2021 season, nine different nine-figure contracts have been given to free agent shortstops. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows three for players going into their age-29 seasons:

• Dansby Swanson, Cubs, seven years, $177MM
• Javier Báez, Tigers, six years, $140MM
• Trevor Story, Red Sox, six years, $140MM

Adames is going to be the same age as the Swanson-Báez-Story trio, heading into his age-29 season, but could potentially be in a better position than any of that three. Story had shown tremendous upside but limped into free agency with a 98 wRC+ in his walk year and concerns around his throwing elbow. Swanson had an excellent defensive reputation but inconsistent offense, with just two full seasons where his wRC+ was above average. Báez also had fluctuating offense and mounting strikeout concerns, getting punched out at a 33.6% clip in his walk year.

The Brewers were surely give Adames a qualifying offer at season’s end, which he will reject. Báez was spared a QO since he was traded midseason but Swanson and Story each rejected QOs and were therefore tied to the associated penalties.

Adames may not be an MVP candidate. In fact, he’s bizarrely never even been an All-Star. But there’s a steadiness to his production. He’s never had more than 4.4 wins above replacement in a season, per FanGraphs, but he’s also been worth at least 3.1 fWAR in each full season. He’s already at 1.7 fWAR here in 2024.

As we saw in the most recent winter, the market can be affected by things beyond a player’s control, such as TV rights deals and luxury tax calculations. But Adames is currently doing everything in his power to set himself up well for the upcoming offseason. The longer he keeps it up, the more he will make 2023 look like a distant memory.