As explained here, we have been writing Trade Rumors Front Office originals such as this one for the last four years or so, but moving forward they'll be available on the website and not just in subscribers' inboxes. In the near future, expect to see roughly six such paywalled posts per week here on MLBTR. This week's mailbag explores the logic behind a Mason Miller trade, the Giants' slow start, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s true talent level, potential rotation upgrades for the Orioles, musings about the White Sox and Angels, and a look at Kim Ng's tenure as Marlins GM.
Phillip asks:
Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg are amazing, and totally wasted on the A's right now, despite them playing better than expected. But any trade would best be for solid prospects-SEVERAL solid prospects- who are 2-3 seasons away instead of MLB-ready guys who would also be wasted on the current and near-future teams. Given that, what team has those far away prospects to pay for one of those splendid slingers? Not Baltimore, more's the pity.
This brings up a philosophical question: should bad teams have nice things? Mason Miller provides a reason to watch the A's, and his season has been insane so far. And while he's under team control through the 2029 season, we can't count on him to hold up or on this franchise to be willing to pay him those last few years if he does.
So the cold-hearted logical answer is for the A's to trade Miller as soon as possible, as he might be at peak value and could be a lot less valuable the next time this organization has a realistic shot at contending. (I am aware that the A's are not awful so far this year at 15-17, but I do not think they have a realistic chance at making the playoffs anytime soon).
It's worth considering that Miller was a starter in college and all through the minors. He came down with a "mild UCL sprain" in mid-May of last year, which involved a four-month recovery period and short appearances when he returned in September.
A's GM David Forst explained to MLB.com's Martin Gallegos last December that he'd like to see Miller stay healthy for a year as a reliever before the team considers moving him back into a starting role. When a pitcher excels as a closer to the degree Miller has thus far, it's often hard to get him out of that role, but if he can eventually transition back to starting, he could theoretically be even more valuable. But given last year's UCL sprain and the attrition rate of the game's hardest throwers, there's a pretty good case that Miller is indeed at peak value right now.
I don't know where the hell the A's are going to be (as an organization) in 2026, when Miller will receive his first arbitration salary. Given the extra uncertainty around the franchise these next few years, Phillip's case makes some sense: trade Miller (and/or Erceg) now for prospects who are several years away from the Majors.
The problem with this idea is that a prospect's uncertainty is higher the further away he is from the Majors. Trading Miller this summer might require threading the following needles:
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The A’s are a couple games under .500, with the hapless Marlins coming into town, they will very likely either be 1 game under .500 or 1 game over .500 after this weekend. They even have a better record than the Giants.
Long term outlook though, A’s should sell high on Miller and Erceg
Orioles have a glut of position players to trade, not enough playing time for all.
Mayo
Beavers
Norby
Povich
Johnson
Wagner
For
Blackburn
Miller
helps both teams out.
Oakland gets some near MLB ready position pieces. Orioles cash in prospects blocked by others to sure up rotation and pen.
Good post. Hey by the way, I love your username. I’ve been to many many Aztec games over the years and it’s always a great time.
“I believe that we WILL win.”
youtu.be/_nTYerSPws8?si=wvnGOiCFYMz0aGQj
Please give us blue chip prospects for Erceg. He’s been good for 12 innings!
Os and As have a very recent trade history and both times neither team fleeced the other. Yes. I can see them hooking up once again.
IMO, Kimbrel may have a back issue but more likely a dead arm is the culprit. Pretty early in season for that. He’s old. Os in dire need of end of game RP help.
HTheir patchwork bullpen has exceeded expectations but relievers are also volatile. They still jabe a good amount of pitchers inured mainly starting pitchers. So a roster crunch may happen
WASTED ON THE A”S ? YOU HAVEN’T SEEN ANY A’S GAMES THIS YEAR . THIS TEAM WILL FINISH ABOVE .500 AND WILL BE FULLY RID OF OAKLAND THE CITY NEXT YEAR . NOBODY IS TRADING ANYTHING UNLESS ORIOLES WANT TO GIVE UP JACKSON HOLIDAY FEEL ME
No one wants to feel you.
Your caps lock is on for some reason.
A’s won’t finish above .500 but I kept telling people they are better than the Angels but people were calling me and others crazy.
You’re crazy.
I wish my hands were cut off before I was forced to “feel” you.
Took a look at Mason Miller’s stat line. Never seen a negative FIP before. One of those strange stats you never see unless it’s the beginning of the season.
I like what you have to say about Vlad Jr. That finger wagging he does toward his dugout when either he believes he’s safe or as a 1Bman, that the other guy is out, should be a meme. I’ve come to think of him as an irritant who’s main purpose is showering teammates with sunflower seeds.
The Mets have plenty of young SS’s that they drafted and got in trades trade 1 of them plus + not named Acuna or Jett Williams for Miller
Unlock Mackey Front Office to read the comment I have in mind 🙂
Mkay I will.
So the cold-hearted logical answer is for the A’s to trade Miller as soon as possible
=========================
Because he only has 6 years of control left? Why not just trade prospects because they are down to their final 8 years of control?
And where are the articles suggesting the Rox trade Tovar, or the Astrs trade Alvarez & Tucker
It feels like no one told you that the As are in 19th place.
No, because there’s a good chance he’s at peak value right now.
The A’s can (theoretically) mitigate the risk of him getting injured or declining in performance by the time they’re contending by trading him for a strong package of Double-A-ish position players. At least, that’s the premise of the question I was asked.
I actually did not recommend the A’s trade Miller, suggesting that doing so may be too cute, that I’m not sure this A’s front office can be trusted to pull it off, and that they should probably just enjoy him.
I genuinely don’t know what 19th place means.
The A’s currently have the 19th best record in the MLB (tied with the Blue Jays and Giants at 15-17).
1-Other team will recognize that he might be the sum of his parts. Every year, someone, and usually several players, get off to an insane start. I doubt other GMs are going to over-react and trading top-shelf players for him. Just for funnsies, compare two players:
Player A: 14/2 K/W in 17.1 IPs with a 0.52 ERA.
Player B 29/4 K/W in 14.1 IPs with a 1.26 ERA
I’d much prefer player B, but player A has real nice stats. But GMs aren’t going to pay much for player A until he has at least a year’s worth of stats.
2-19th place means 19th best record. It irks me when people can’t just sit back and let them enjoy their improvement. People don’t suggest that other small market/improving teams have to sell off.
Justin Slaten seems like a nice find, but he’s striking out batters at a league average rate. As opposed to Miller who is at 53.7%, which is like vintage Aroldis/Hader/Kimbrel/Edwin Diaz. Backed up by the stuff.
I do think GMs would pay a lot for Miller this summer, possibly more than they’ll pay for him at any future point in his career.
I think the Miller question was posed because it is very tempting for a GM to try to sell high on a reliever and get a player or players who offer more stability or total value.
I’m not saying that’s right or that I want the A’s to do that, but it certainly happens and I’d be surprised if David Forst doesn’t consider it.
Nor do I want the A’s to fail, but I don’t believe they’ll contend this year or anytime soon. And I hope I’m wrong on that because it’d be fun, but sometimes not understanding where your team is in true ability can set it back years.