11:50AM: The Red Sox have officially announced Keller’s signing and optioned Kelly in the corresponding move.
10:12AM: The Red Sox are nearing a deal with right-hander Brad Keller, according to MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. The deal is pending a physical and the club hopes to make it official before today’s game against the Brewers, which is scheduled to begin at 1:35pm local time. Cotillo adds that right-hander Zack Kelly has been optioned to the minors to make room for Keller on the active roster. Boston’s 40-man roster currently stands at 39, so no corresponding 40-man move will be necessary to add Keller.
Keller, 28, signed with the White Sox on a minor league deal back in March and made five appearances with the club, including two starts, before being designated for assignment last week. Keller subsequently elected free agency and returned to the open market with a 4.86 ERA in 16 2/3 innings of work with Chicago under his belt. That performance may be better than what Keller earned, as he struck out just 17.1% of batters faced while walking 7.9% and allowing a whopping 29.4% of his fly balls to leave the yard for home runs. Those iffy peripherals left him with a 6.55 FIP and a 5.16 xERA, although a 4.02 SIERA and 4.09 xFIP both suggest Keller’s ERA was actually higher than what should have been expected based on his underlying performance.
Regardless of the results from Keller’s time with the White Sox, he’ll now get another opportunity to re-establish himself at the big league level in Boston. Keller was once a promising mid-rotation arm with the Royals, as he posted a 3.50 ERA and 3.90 FIP across his first 360 1/3 innings of work in the majors between 2018 and 2020. Since then, however, his results have declined drastically. His final three seasons in Kansas City saw him post a 5.14 ERA with a 4.79 FIP before he was ultimately sidelined partway through the 2023 campaign by a shoulder issue before undergoing surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome back in October. TOS is a particularly difficult injury for players to come back from, and players such as Stephen Strasburg and Chris Archer have seen their careers negatively impacted by the issue in recent years.
Keller will hope to buck that trend with the Red Sox, joining a pitching staff that appears poised to lose right-hander Garrett Whitlock to elbow surgery after already losing righty Lucas Giolito to that same procedure earlier in the year. The club is currently relying on a starting rotation of Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Cooper Criswell, and Nick Pivetta. While it’s possible that Keller could slot somewhere into that mix, a more likely scenario would be Keller joining veteran righty Chase Anderson as a potential multi-inning relief and spot starter option in the club’s bullpen mix.
Making way for Keller on the club’s active roster is Kelly, who is in his third season as an up-and-down reliever for the Red Sox. The right-hander has generally pitched to solid results when in the majors for the club, with a career 3.18 ERA across 39 2/3 innings of work. Kelly has been particularly effective this season, with a strong 2.16 ERA in 16 2/3 frames despite a 19.4% strikeout rate and a massive 13.9% walk rate that have left him with a lackluster 4.99 FIP. Now back in the minors, Kelly figures to act as optionable depth for the club going forward alongside Josh Winckowski and Naoyuki Uwasawa.
6 man rotation? Criswell and Crawford have been knocked around a bit of late
I was wondering the same thing… let’s see if Bailey can fix this guy as well.
Fix who has he fixed lol let the season play out and see the true numbers these pitchers pitch too.
“Fix who has he fixed lol”
Tanner Houck (10 starts) best ERA of his career.
Kutter Crawford (11 starts) best ERA of his career.
Brian Bello (8 starts) best ERA of his career.
Cooper Criswell (7 starts) best ERA of his career.
Nick Pivetta (6 starts) best starter ERA of his career.
Garrett Whitlock (4 starts) best ERA of his career.
Thats 46 starts. Some of us dont need to be hit with a 2×4 to see the difference.
Kyle – As you get older you’ll learn it’s never a good thing to do anything prematurely. As much as the 3 B’s have been a Godsend compared to prior pitching regimes, it’s way too early to know if any of those guys will maintain their performance. Four of those guys have been roughed up of late, let’s see how they do facing teams a 2nd time.
And you’re talking very small sample sizes this year and prior years.
You notice that Pivetta has returned to his fastball (60%+)?
Like what we are seeing from Houck, Crawford, and Criswell especially. But they are fundamentally the same pitchers they’ve always been, just better versions of themselves.
FPG — “As you get older”
Why the insult? Why are you so condescending? Age locks your brain into pre-determined opinions and prevents dynamic thinking. Meaning when things change you are the last to notice the difference.
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Now my response:
I use the eye test, but its just easier to post stats here. If you watch how they’re pitching, theyve all completely changed. The movement on their pitches compared to previous years is amazing. Sliders and cutters have tremendous motion.
Also, its not like this is Bailey’s first job, he did fantastic in SF.
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My point is based on stats, eye-test and the pitching coaches track history. Youve got insults on your side. Also, 41 starts is NOT a “small sample size”.
Kyle – Why the thin skin? Why did you assume “you” meant you personally? Are you really that insecure?
If somebody were to reply to me with “As you get older your eyesight gets worse” I would assume they meant as EVERYONE gets older, which is a fact.
And BTW how the hell is being younger an insult? I’d love to be younger, I’d guess most everybody older than 30 would.
Moving on from the personal stuff you brought up … so if you think those very small sample sizes are “proof” of future sustained excellence, please explain:
1) Why Crawford has a 5.14 ERA this month.
2) Why Pivetta has a 6.16 ERA this month.
3) Why Bello has a 5.66 ERA this month.
And where did you get 41 starts? Who has 41? I’m trying to help you here.
Rsox – This early in the season and with all the days off and also the low innings for Bello and Pivetta, it’s hard to believe fatigue has anything to do with the poor performance.
They might kick Pivetta or Criswell to the pen. Either way, sad they continue to pick from the garbage bin when they could have had Lugo or Shota or Hicks at a low price … or simply kept Sale and waited for Yorke.
@Fever just curious about your take on Sale. I fell out of my chair with a chortle when that deal went down. I thought no way on God’s green earth Sale would amount to anything, at his age, with that injury history, and always figured him a headcase to boot. So I am eating crow now for sure. You think he can maintain this level of awesomeness?
Ignorant – If you mean sub-3 ERA, yes provided he can stay healthy.
Future HOF pitchers don’t suddenly lose it. Health was the only reason for prior struggles.
Go to four-man. And focus on deception, grounders, and fly-outs, not K’s!
Serious question… Can anyone name a pitcher or pitchers who has/have had a good post TOS surgery career?
1) Jacob deGrom
Date of surgery: Oct. 10, 2010
Return: May 7, 2012
) Justin Verlander
Date of surgery: Sept. 30, 2020
Return: April 9, 2022
There’s now a second pitcher to return from Tommy John surgery and win a Cy Young Award. Verlander, remarkably, did it in his first season back from Tommy John — and at age 39.
) Shohei Ohtani
Date of surgery: Oct. 1, 2018
Return (as pitcher): July 26, 2020
4) John Smoltz
Date of surgery: March 23, 2000
Return: May 17, 2001
Smoltz is the first Hall of Famer to be enshrined in Cooperstown after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Before his surgery in 2000, Smoltz was a Cy Young winner (1996) and four-time All-Star as part of arguably the greatest starting rotation in Major League history alongside Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.
When he returned in 2001, Smoltz converted into a reliever, and he was just as dominant. In Smoltz’s first full season as closer in 2002, he led the Majors with 55 saves, and he saved 40-plus games in each of the next two seasons. Smoltz then transitioned back into the Atlanta starting rotation in 2005, at age 38, and was an All-Star two of the next three years
From Tommy John to MVP. And not just MVP, but one of the most unique seasons in MLB history. As always, Shohei Ohtani is one of a kind.
Stephen Strasburg
Date of surgery: Sept. 3, 2010
Return: Sept. 6, 2011
Strasburg made one of the most anticipated MLB debuts in recent memory for the Nationals on June 8, 2010, and he was electric from the start, striking out 14 batters in that first game. But just 12 starts into his career, he tore his UCL, putting everything on hold. Strasburg returned from his Tommy John surgery late in 2011, and now he’s a World Series champion and one of the most dominant postseason pitchers of all time. The 2019 World Series MVP has a 1.46 career playoff ERA.
) Eric Gagne
Date of surgery: 1997
Return: 1998
Gagne is the only reliever to win a Cy Young Award after coming back from Tommy John surgery, and he was the only pitcher, period, until deGrom joined him. Gagne had the surgery when he was still a starter in the Dodgers’ Minor League system, missing all of 1997 following his first professional season at Class A. He recovered, reached the Majors in 1999, and after three years as a starter moved to the bullpen in 2002.
8) Adam Wainwright
Date of surgery: Feb. 28, 2011
Return: April 7, 2012
When Wainwright tore his UCL in Spring Training of 2011, he was coming off back-to-back top-three finishes in NL Cy Young voting. The leader of the Cardinals staff had gone 39-19 with a 2.53 ERA and 425 strikeouts from 2009-10. Wainwright missed all of the 2011 season, but he was ready for Opening Day 2012. That first season, he proved he still had the arm strength to be a Major League workhorse, making 32 starts and pitching 198 2/3 innings with a 3.94 ERA. And the next year, he was back to his ace form. Wainwright finished in the top three of Cy Young voting again in 2013 and ’14.
Beloved by the St. Louis fans, Wainwright was still throwing postseason gems in 2019, at age 37, and even in 2021, at age 39. He’s a Cardinals icon, spending his entire 18-year MLB career with the franchise.
9) Rich Hill
Date of surgery: June 9, 2011
Return: April 29, 2012
Hill had a long journey to become a valuable arm for the Dodgers’ pennant-winning teams in 2017 and ’18. Part of that was a comeback from 2011 Tommy John surgery, the second major surgery of his career after he had a torn labrum in his left shoulder repaired in 2009. Following his return from Tommy John in 2012, Hill bounced around the Majors and Minors until he was released by the Nationals in 2015.
With few options, Hill signed with the independent-league Long Island Ducks. He pitched two games for them before the Red Sox made him a Minor League offer in August. Hill earned a September callup, and his success down the stretch turned into a free-agent deal with the A’s that offseason. Hill was stellar in the first half of 2016 with Oakland, the Dodgers got him at the Trade Deadline, and that’s when he started spinning curveballs in L.A.
Years later, he’s still going at age 43
dpc was talking about TOS, which is thoracic outlet surgery not Tommy John
My mistake
I enjoyed the Read anyway. Thank you for providing that info
Your username also appears to be a mistake
No I had to do that to get it to take
Have you heard of the digit 1?
Yes. David Wells had tj surgery in 1985 as a high schooler..then went on to pitch 21 years in the majors some of them spectacular..without further issue…fyi almost all of the info IB cites sure looks like it is directly from an mlb.com article named “the best tommy john success stories” by david adler in august of last year…
And to think that Sandy Koufax pitched the last four years of his career with a torn UCL and all of the doctors said it was arthritus !!!
You think you’re smarter than everyone else but you can’t even understand a one sentence question.
Old but possibly relevant article
blogs.fangraphs.com/phil-hughes-and-the-sobering-h…
And to think that Sandy Koufax pitched the last four years of his career with a torn UCL and all of the doctors said it was arthritus !!!
Did anybody think the pitching was going to be best in the league the whole season?I think this season was to give Whitlock,Houck,Crawford and Bello experience.Throwing more than 150 innings.Otherwise people will always say he never pitched a full season.You can’t do it until you are allowed to go that far.Duran was never given a full season(500 at bats) until the last 2 years.You can project as much as you want.You can’t say you have done it until you see how the rigors affect you.
Lmao.
Yhuya.
Ohio Gazamus
Great signing
Why sign good pitchers in the off-season when you can instead get guys like this during the season!
Because good pitchers are much more expensive, and this team isn’t quite ready to compete yet. I still believe that they are waiting for the next crop of prospects to emerge (Teel, Anthony, Meyer, etc..) before they go balls to the wall with spending again.
The Red Sox have the second best team ERA in MLB. I think they are on the right track regarding pitching.
Yankees 2.78
Phillies 3.11
Red Sox 3.11
All in – Agree 100%. They are definitely on the right track with three homegrown starters emerging in one year: Houck, Crawford, and Bello. The last homegrown starter was Clay Buchholz in 2007! The next starter may be Penrod or Perales which may be in 2025, so the Red Sox needed a depth arm as Giolito and Whitlock are now out for the year.
Explain to us what evidence the last three to 4 years shows Henry will ever spend big money.
In 2023 the Red Sox signed Devers to a 11 year/$331M extension. Cheap teams don’t spend that kind of money. In 2022 they signed Trevor Story to a 6 year/$140M contract ($23.33M per year). Also not cheap. This year the 36-17 Cleveland Guardians have a CBT payroll of $135.5M and the 33-18 Orioles have a CBT payroll of $114.8M. The Red Sox CBT payroll is currently $218.3M. So, I think the Red Sox are spending enough money, but they need to spend it better. The Yankees have a CBT payroll of $313.6M and will pay another $59.6M in luxury tax. After all that spending, the Yankees at 37-18 only have a slightly better record than the the Orioles and a worse record than Cleveland.
Chris – They are using that as an excuse to go cheap the next few years. They will start spending only when their bottom line falls below a certain point.
If people weren’t ready to run Sale out of town,He could be the Ace they needed.Why weren’t the coaches able to get him to pitch like he has with the Braves?But i am curious,if you never have thrown over 200 innings,how do you get to that level without doing it.This year,win or lose,those guys might experience that level.
It will be interesting to see how many innings Sale can pitch this year. He has thrown 960 pitches over 63.2 innings so far this year. Last year he threw 1670 pitches over 102.2 innings. Prior to last year, Sale last pitched over 100 innings in 2019. So, he has already thrown more than half the innings and pitches he threw last year.
Still building depth for the second half I guess. Don’t quite get the Kelly send down move
Badco – Kelly has options, so he can move from Boston to AAA Worcester without needing a DFA and risk being taken by another team (which would be a sure thing). Kelly had pitched 2 innings the previous game and a lot recently. The timing of Keller was perfect as his first responsibility is multi-inning mop up (like Chase Anderson). Sure enough Keller pitched 4 innings of mop up in the 11-3 loss to the Orioles. This saved a bullpen which has been used a lot in the first third of the season. Keller is insurance in case there is yet another injury in the rotation. Anderson has proved bad as a starter, but ok in the role he fills, so Keller may be a bridge until Winckowski is stretched out as a starter in AAA to supplement the depth for Boston.
Keller changes his Sox. Details at 11.
Are we really focusing on “peripherals” based on 16 innings?
Total joke.
Well, alternatively, it has been called “looking under the hood.”
Please, I can’t take much more of this.