The Red Sox announced this morning that the club has activated right-hander Brayan Bello from the 15-day injured list. Right-hander Josh Winckowski was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move. Bello is slated to start this afternoon’s game against the Nationals at Fenway Park.
Bello, who will celebrate his 25th birthday later this week, has been on the shelf since late April due to a bout of lat tightness. Prior to the injury, the young righty had pitched solidly through five starts with the Red Sox this year with a 3.04 ERA and 4.06 FIP in 26 2/3 innings of work. He’s struck out a respectable 23.6% of batters faced and generated groundballs at a 51.3% clip during that time, although a whopping 19% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs stands out as a potential red flag in an otherwise impressive early-season performance.
That success on the mound has been par for the course among Red Sox starters this year, as the club’s 2.42 rotation ERA is the best figure in the majors to this point in the season thanks to excellent starts from the likes of Kutter Crawford and Tanner Houck. With righty Nick Pivetta having also been activated from the injured list in recent days, the club’s rotation is once again approaching full strength. While righty Garrett Whitlock remains on the shelf due to an oblique strain, righty Cooper Criswell has performed admirably in his absence with a 2.10 ERA and 3.94 FIP in 25 2/3 innings of work.
Making room for Bello on the active roster is Winckowski, who will turn 26 next month. It’s a somewhat surprising move given his success over the past two seasons. The righty was among the best multi-inning relief arms in all of baseball last year as he posted a 2.88 ERA with a 3.91 FIP in 84 1/3 innings of work across 60 appearances. He hasn’t quite kept that performance up this year, although he’s still enjoyed solid results with a 3.33 ERA and 4.27 FIP in 24 1/3 innings of work.
While that sort of performance would seem to warrant a spot in the club’s bullpen over other optionable arms such as Cam Booser, it’s worth noting that Winckowski’s peripherals have taken a significant turn for the worse this year. The right-hander has struggled to miss bats this year as his strikeout rate has fallen from a respectable 22.3% last year all the way to just 16.8% this season. Meanwhile, his walk rate has ticked up from 8.4% to 9.7% and his groundball rate has dropped more than five points after sitting at a strong 51.2% last season. Those shaky peripheral numbers suggest that regression may have been on the horizon for Winckowski had he remained in the majors, a possibility supported by is elevated 4.53 xFIP and 5.43 xERA.
Going forward, Winckowski will head to the Triple-A level and look to recapture what made him such an effective reliever for the club last season while acting as an optionable depth arm for the club to lean on alongside former NPB starter Naoyuki Uwasawa. Meanwhile, the Red Sox appear poised to lean on right-hander Justin Slaten to fill the sort of high leverage, multi-inning role they turned to Winckowski for last year. Slaten has impressed in 13 contests this year with a 1.74 ERA and 2.34 FIP in 20 2/3 innings of work.
Winck just needs a little nudge and he’ll be fine.
hayzee – Agreed! I’m not as concerned about him as others seem to be, maybe it’s because I still remember how great he was last season.
Agreed Fever. Back to 1-3IP of relief and same old Winkowski. Why on earth Anderson not dfa’d good question. Wink 2-3x the pitcher and of far more use.
Like article says, Booser could have been optioned, who isn’t of as much value, even another favorite of mine in Kelly. Just another -0- sense decision this team has been making all year.
John – I’m guessing Anderson doesn’t have any options whereas Winck obviously does, that’s probably the biggest reason.
Supposedly they also wanted him to work on a new pitch and stretch himself into a starter in AAA, so it makes sense.
Honestly I really don’t have concerns regarding the pitching staff, I have confidence the 3 B’s know what they are doing.
Heck Cora even used Jansen 3 consecutive days, another encouraging sign that things are different this year.
I think they signed this guy to an extension way too early. I don’t think he’s even close to their number one guy, nor am I certain he will become that
Winck should not be in AAA, that’s just dumb IMO
I don’t think they had an ace in-the-making in mind. Guys with that kind of ceiling also don’t sign extensions with a nice draft signing bonus cushion already in their pockets. They locked down a mid-rotation arm with upside.
That’s about right. I’d bet on no less than a #3 starter. I have a friend who knows a ton abut real BB, and he was looking at prop bets on Bello winning the C.Y. Huge odds of course, but just the fact he’d be willing to make that wager means he values him more than I do.
Or they have a “gambling” problem lol
No one said he’s going to be an “ace”.
He’s already a good rotation piece now so they extended him. That’s kind of the whole story.
“I don’t think he’s even close to their number one guy, nor am I certain he will become that”
Do you think $19M is ace material? Bello is only signed to a contract that averages $9.1M and tops out at $19M.
He isnt being paid like a “number one guy”. He’s paid like a Number 2 or 3.
He’s paid like a guy whose prearb years were bought out. Because they were.
“He’s paid like a guy whose prearb years”
I said “$19M”. Which is what his final year that is not part of his abritration years. And even thats an overstatement, since the contract includes a team friendly option for another year.
Do you not know how to look up/understand contracts? Heres a link:
spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/74775/brayan-bello
IRT Winc, my guess is that they are looking to change his pitch mixture. He’s gotten beat up a little by lefties. Or maybe they are looking to convert him into a fulltime SP instead of a #6, 3-inning opener.
I doubt this has anything to do with performance.
In my opinion, Winck should be starting and Bello should be in AAA
Sorry that just makes no sense
You could lay off the sauce dude. It’s not even noon.
Purse….Based on what ? The current results when they have both been healthy do not appear to support that opinion.
that’s ridiculous. While I don’t agree the Winkowksi should be optioned saying Bello should be is silly
None of these comments make sense where are the knowledgeable regulars out with their moms probably.
Bello hasn’t been fantastic.
And in the Majors, I’ve seen more success from Winck.
Maybe bello hasn’t been “fantastic” by your definition but shown to be at minimum a number 3 big league stater with way more upside. And no Wink hasn’t had more success than Bello. That’s a bonkers take. Wink has shown to be a very good reliever. Bello has shown to be a very good to great starter which is way more valuable.
Oh, you mean knowledgeable regulars like Fever Pitch Troll? He’s probably crying to his mommy about how he thinks we are all dumb for all I know.
But in all truth, maybe I’m being unreasonable and crazy, I just don’t think we should think of Bello highly until he actually proves something. He’s looked so-so to me, and I’m all for planning for the future if we have pieces that will help us win. Until he proves me wrong (and I hope he does), I don’t mind the investment but would have rather put it toward something guaranteed. What about Casas? Wong? These guys are more crucial than Bello IMO, and with the rate we are going, we can’t afford them all.
We’ve seen them be incredibly particular with money and if signing Bello takes away from signing a true #1 ace, and Bello doesn’t become what they originally thought he would be, then this was a bad move.
I’m a bit unhinged, I’ll admit because I come on here and see the same posters attacking other members and I’ve just been reluctant to even be a part of this community anymore. You can thank Fever Troll for that. I don’t even want to be logical anymore because he’ll cut your throat off if you try to be.
Your right your unhinged listen to Troll Free he is very knowledgeable and you bashing a future hall of fame pitcher like Bello is crazy he was trained by Pedro. Go touch grass.
I blocker Fever and Troll Free months ago. I highly recommend it.
I would not take anything KD17/troll and FPG say personally. They like to gaslight a lot.
saying Troll free/KD17 is knowledgable made laugh.
that’s too bad. It was always hilarious when you dunked on them.
Chaim Breslow’s Purse
You can thank Fever Troll for that.
=====================
I finally had to put him on mute, but how you react to him is up to you, not him.
Yeah, but they’re trolls. All they want is engagement.
Neither one of those guys is even pretending to care about baseball. They’re just here to mess with people.
they enjoy trying to gaslight people as I said. Dunking on them from time to time is funny but they do crave attention.
Not as a starter you haven”t.
You’re troll food dude.
I’m not sure, Joe? I agree that it isn’t — or at least shouldn’t be — about performance. But it is hard to guess at the specific logic.
One possibility is that they want him to get a breather, after working so hard over the first six weeks. He is pitching through a foot injury that will require surgery at the end of the season. Of course the easy answer would be DON’T OVERWORK HIM!
I like him as a reliever, don’t see the potential for Winckowski to succeed in the rotation. (But of course could be missing something.)
By one estimate, this is costing him $3500/day. That kind of “fine” gotta sting for a kid who thought he had earned a permanent job.
Yea I think it’s unfortunate that Wink gets sent down but he’s got options but they are just delaying the inevitable when Whitlock comes back. Chase Anderson will be dfa barring any injuries I hope when that happens. I would have been fine with dfa him now and keeping Wink.
Sending Bello down instead of Wink is just crazy talk.
I’d be happier with all of that if I had any confidence that Whitlock would stay healthy. If the over/under on starts until his next injury were 5.5, which would you take?
If Bello is only going five innings, that’s ridiculous. That’s why he should go to AAA
Over the past two years, Bello has averaged 5.57 IPs/GS. The ML average this year is 5.27. You’re just doubling down on the crazy talk.
Dude just came off the DL he was scheduled to only go 5.
Bello just got off the IL and is on an inning limit. A guy only going 5 innings and giving up 2 runs coming off an injury layoff is a good start. Tripping down on your terrible take just makes it more terrible.
pursr- no offense, but nothing u have posted on this topic has made any sense. This last above especially regarding Bello only going 5 innings. Have u paid attention to how few winkowski has thrown in each of his this year? 3.1-4 innings each and less than 60 pitches total. Top that? His FB velo has been 92-3, rather than 95-7, even when he was going 2 innings as a reliever.
Winkowski just isn’t the same guy as a starter.
Honestly, I’m just sick of people treating Bello like he’s an ace. You can’t possibly think they signed him only with the thinking of a #3 starter as a ceiling. People were talking about him being an ace when he was cruising in the Minors but his strikeout rate and everything he’s accomplished there has yet to transfer, so everyone has talked back his true talent, which is why I’m not sold highly on the guy. Call it doubling down or whatever, I just don’t see him as any better than a #4 starter, yet he’s our #1.
The signing was okay, but I’d rather get good pitching tied up than potentially good pitching. There’s no guarantee with Bello.
Since our starters only go an average of 5 innings anyway, Winck in the bullpen is a bigger loss to me.
He only goes 5 anyway, IL or no IL. Very few of our starters have gone more than 5, whether it’s Cora or whatever. We are babying our starters, which is pathetic, and if we ever did get to the postseason, good luck trying to savea tired pen when your pitchers go 4 or 5 innings. No wonder there’s so many injuries, they aren’t stretched out properly.
Why an inning limit? He pitched 157 last year and ran out of gas… guy is never going to get progress if we keep regressing. I think limiting his innings is just stupid. Let the guy pitch, shut him down later I’d it’s a real issue. He’s never going to pitch enough innings to be good if we keep babying him
Inning limit isn’t going to prevent any kind of TJS if it’s inevitable at some point… TJS is getting pitchers like nothing and I honestly think it’s because managers are grooming pitchers more than just letting them pitch naturally
I didn’t say we had to start Winck, but I’d rather have a reliable 2 to 3 inning guy in the pen than a useless Chase Anderson. None of our starters are going more than 5 innings, so having Winck in the pen is crucial. We could pick off anyone off the street to pitch only 5 innings, but apparently we want to pay Bello a little extra to get the bear minimum done. Mind you, he was our opening day starter.
I’m not at all satisfied with the way they’re stretching him out and his numbers from the Minors have not converted to the MLB level one bit.
Chaim Breslow’s Purse14 mins ago
Honestly, I’m just sick of people treating Bello like he’s an ace.
==========================
Now you’re tripling down on crazy. No one referred to him as an ace.
TJS has a lot to do with guys throwing max effort on every single pitch. That is a big change over the last 20 years.
The game has changed. The Red Sox are not alone in that by any stretch.
He doesn’t need to be their #1 guy to earn that contract.
Lock them all up, not just the stars. This kind of early extension almost always works out for the team, sometimes working out VERY well.
Aron hicks didn’t severino didn’t that’s juts the Yankees it’s hit and miss
Didn’t Aaron Hicks have five years of service when he signed his extension? Or something like that? A very different situation from giving a 24 year old kid a deal that covers his arb years and buys a couple club options at the end.
The Mariners might disagree with you on Evan White it doesn’t always work out.
So what did White cost them? $24M? The Red Sox blew 5x that amount on Trevor Story.
“Almost always” was an exaggeration, there are no guarantees in life, but the odds are heavily in the team’s favor – and the risks are pretty limited.
How did Straw work out for Cleveland
Try to see this from another perspective. Calculate how much value Atlanta gained from locking in just Acuna. Compare that to the entire universe of poor early extensions, for the entire history of the world.
Which side wins?
how much money did straw make? Someone already brought up Acuna as one example but these deals are lost always a low risk high reward payoff for teams
Bad contracts win you just don’t hear about them as the players fade away
rafaela is staring to figure it out and bello has a high floor. i think both those extensions were good risks
dasit – Rafaela has definitely been performing better, time will tell with both of them.
Ol’ 5 inning Bello.
Surprised they sent Winchowski down. Cora said they want to stretch him out and add a new breaking ball. I guess they see untapped potential. In Bailey I trust.
I like the sound of that. Thanks.
I’d honestly rather keep him in the bullpen but I was wrong about Houck needing to stay there so I could be wrong Winkowksi. Hopefully this means Whitlock will be back in the pen.
acel – I really don’t think they will continue to bounce Whitlock back and forth between the rotation and the pen, and I really don’t think starting makes him more injury prone.
More likely Pivetta gets traded at the deadline.
If Wink is going to start someone will have to move to the pen and it makes more sense to move a guy there that had success in the past.
Think it is more about adding to his repertoire. Winc can definitely use another pitch to help miss some bats.
Criswell has proven himself a solid five-inning starter, wouldn’t at all mind seeing him stick in the rotation.
Bello is a 5 inning starter, Criswell is a 4+ inning starter, basically an opener. A lot of that is Cora’s doing.
Bello was #44 out of 118 pitchers last year in IP/GS, averaging 5.6 IP/GS. That’s not elite, but it is decently respectable. And he’ll likely get back to that this year as he gets into the groove again.
Criswell is a minor league free agent. Anything you get from him is a bonus.
Will give Cora credit for both of those if you insist, but I would rather give credit to the players and the pitching coach.
I’m not a Cora hater by any means (I’ve defended him a lot) but I checked and Bello pitched 6 innings once this year. Last year, later in the year, his ERA and pitching got worse when he took on more innings. Until he is stretched out, I don’t see him reliably pitching more than 5 innings consistently. That’s a liability to our bullpen, no matter how good he is in those 5 innings. He’s been incredibly lucky.
I just don’t trust Bello yet.
Look for six innings by his third or fourth start back. He had a short rehab, and as you say he isn’t fully stretched out yet.
And yes, he wore down towards the end last year. He talked about that in the off-season, is why he focused on building up strength.
I sure hope so. I’m not trying to be a downer here, I’m just upset at all the hype that has surrounded Bello and him not living up to it.
I just don’t find him as reliable as any of the other pitchers we have and I’m not seeing progress.
I mean he has an FIP over 4.40, and did last year as well.
I still feel more safe with Winck over Bello.
They are what they are…. Remember that Bello is the youngest pitcher on the roster.
Tough to compare Winckowski and Bello, as the latter is pitching in a far more challenging role. I see what you mean, but at the same time I would be thrilled if Winckowski could learn to pitch as well as Bello out of the rotation.
Middle relievers are a dime a dozen. Starters who can go 5-6 quality innings are a lot harder to find.
Bello’s hype has appropriate for his talents and his age
This staff looks promising. If those minor league phenoms pan out sox are gonna be tough
That would make the Rouge Sox a veritable Cambodia, what with a phenom pen.
Active Bello is a beautiful thing.
How does Cora expect to beat the good teams like TB with a crap line like he’s putting out there.
Batting Devers fourth and O”Neill fifth while putting two clowns like Abreu and Wong in the 2 and 3 holes is pure insanity. Past performance is an indication of talent. Wong of 80 OPS+ skills and Abreu who may be the streakiest hitter on the team don’t belong in the first three slots no matter how much hype is pumping up their careers. Their skill level is still their skill level and neither is an all-star. Devers and O’Neill are the potential all-stars who should bat 2 and 3. or move Rafaela into the 2 hole and bat O’Neill 3 and Devers 4th. Speed on in front of the two potential all-stars makes a lot more sense.
TB will take 3 of 4 if they don’t take all four wins in Boston. So far against good teams BOS is 0-6 and they are behind tonight against TB. Cora needs to stop relying on his hunches and start managing using sound fundamentals. Hit a logical batting order. Put fielders in logical defensive positions they can handle. Try to do everything possible to maximize the talent on the roster.
Breslow has observed him long enough to come to the conclusion that Cora is worthless as a manager and a new one is desperately needed. Breslow must know someone experienced at managing who fits in better with Breslow and his new coaches.
You would bat Rafaela #2 ahead of Abreu? Seriously? Abreu may be streaky, but he is a much better hitter. And has a bit of speed himself.
Lineup order just isn’t that important. Picking on the lineup is ignoring the elephant in the room – the fact that Devers is their one truly good hitter, and there are 2-3 guys who don’t belong starting in the majors.
This makes three straight games scoring 3 runs in regulation? Win one, lose one, “tie” one so to speak. That’s pretty good for such a weak offensive output, a testament to the pitching.
TFF – While certainly Rafaela and his .238 OBP should never even sniff the top half of the lineup, the lineup order is extremely important. You want the guys that get on base often to be in front of the guys who are your best hitters, unless the best hitters are really bad at driving in runs (and most of the lineup is awful at driving in runs).
The amazing thing is, the Sox have been gifted 3 wins in their past 4 games.
Saturday it was Dave Martinez intentionally walking Tyler to get to Raffy.
Sunday it was the Nats giving 5 outs on the basepaths and making two errors.
And last night Rodriguez having a panic attack and throwing to 1B instead of to 2B for what would have been an easy game-winning doubleplay.
The biggest concerns right now are still the anemic hitting with RISP and the complete inability to come from behind after the 7th inning.
And on a side note, thank God Martin didn’t get hit by that liner last night.
If you look at the research, and run some models, lineup order doesn’t make that big a difference. Sure, it is more valuable to put your OBP in front of your best hitters. It is also more valuable to put your best bats at the top of the lineup where they will get an extra PA. Discussion of that here:
sportsbettingdime.com/guides/strategy/batting-orde…
But we are talking about 5-15 runs over the course of a season. Just doesn’t matter all that much in the greater scheme of things. It is far more important to have good hitters in your lineup than to worry about what order they come to the plate.
blogs.fangraphs.com/how-significant-is-batting-ord…
Biggest concern is that they don’t have enough quality bats in the lineup. That is the elephant in the room that everybody is ignoring when they worry about hitting with RISP and batting order. Give me a team that can actually hit the ball and THEN worry about the order they line up or how they approach the plate in specific situations.
Fenway is a great park for hitting, papers over an awful lot of ineptitude. But this lineup was average at best even when everybody is healthy! Swapping in Dom and Cooper for Yoshida and Casas makes them one of the five weakest offenses in the majors.
One way of looking at it — Reese McGuire is hitting .257/.342/.357, which is BETTER than the average Red Sox hitter: .242/.314/.395. He should probably be batting or sixth in the lineup, most nights, ahead of Romy, Grissom, Cooper, Smith, and Rafaela.
Hm…. If all of those are in the lineup at the same time, that could put Reese McGuire as high as fourth? Scary thought!!!.
That play wasnt on the pitcher it was the second baseman who wasn’t at second and it forced the pitcher to throw to first. Still it was a very fortunate play for the Red Sox. Whitlock finished his rehab start for the WoSox and looked excellent. He looks ready he threw 61 pitches in 4 2/3 I hope they dfa Anderson when he returns.
TFF – The links you provided simply shows there are a lot of idiot writers when it comes to baseball. Apparently, you need a little learning from the experienced players who know exactly why the line-up is critical and has been for over 100 years.
Look at the 2018 Red Sox and count the runs scored by the first four hitters in the line-up. Now go to almost any other championship team and see where the runs are scored.
In BOSTON it was Mookie, Benny, JD producing the runs with Devers a distant fourth because he sucked in 2018 at hitting. Pearce filled the gap at the fourth spot. In Houston, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker and Alvarez account for the majority of the runs in their successful seasons and before that Abreu was there along with Correa and Springer..
Like most metrics oriented idiots, they don’t get the game itself. Taking averages or even averages of averages is pure stupidity. Each averaging makes the new number more inaccurate. So lay off the idiot articles about how the game is played through the eyes of nerds.
Also, pay attention to time segments. Yes, a player can start slowly like Bregman and managers can over reacted by moving him to a lower spot in the order but the better managers take the good with the bad and continue to keep with the proven order that is temporarily firing on less than all pistons.
Abreu in 2023 finished with a higher average than Rafaela because he took advantage of weak pitchers in 3 of 28 games. Did you know he homered off a catcher during one of the anomalies? He finished with 24 hits and 12 came in three games versus bad hitting. The other 25 games he had 12 hits too. Three games 12/15 and 25 games he was 12 for 70. So for 3 games he was incredible and for 25 games he hit .171. If that impresses you because the end number is high then your skills at evaluating players is not good. You can’t count on the anomaly games but you can count on the .171 against good pitching. Rafaela in 2023 played in 28 games as well and had 5 multi-hit games. Through his first 15 games he had huge success and batted at the top of the order and was hitting .368. As he faced TOR and TEX in late SEPT his success rate fell as they found weaknesses in his swing. He needed to adjust to their discovery but he wasn’t able to do so in the last two weeks so his average plummeted leaving the uneducated evaluators considering him less talented than the guy that had 3 good days.
in 2024, Rafaela started slowly. Through his first 24 games he was making adjustments to the book on him and learning how to adapt to how he is pitched. He bottomed out at .154 after game 24. Since then he has played in 18 games. During those 18 games he has 18 hits and had an 8 game hitting streak. He’s had a hit in 12 of the 18 games so only 6 games without a hit so that’s why I say bat him second because he a more consistent hitter than Abreu, he’s a far better base runner and he’s far more disruptive on the base paths ensuring Devers gets better pitches and more fastballs.
Abreu also started slowly in 2024 like Rafaela. They are rookies so that’s not unusual. Through 15 games he was was hitting .184 Then, like last year he had 3 three hit games and a four hit game. His average jumped to .316. During his next 12 games he’s hit .217 so yet another long cold streak. Four big games leaves him at .284. but since May 1 he is hitting .217 Rafaela since May 1 is 11 for 40 for a .275 average.
Should a speedster with a .275 average bat second over a terribly streaky non speedster hitting .217? I think it is sound advice but hey why base opinions on facts when you can misinterpret what’s happening and the reality of skill levels.
You are suggesting Reese McGwire and suggesting his current average should dictate where he bats in the order. You clearly don’t get the point. Talent dictates where you bat and a temporary stat like today’s batting average has nothing to do with it. Bregman is still a great player. He simply had a terrible slump. It happens and then they bounce back.
Rafaela had a better minor league career, is a year younger and is far more athletic than Abreu. That’s why he makes more sense in the 2 hole based on the lack of overall talent on this team. You have Devers, O’Neill and Casas as quality hitters. You have Duran, Rafaela and Abreu the up and coming future hitters. The rest of the team is bad. Grissom was a huge over spend. I’ll take Sale and the $17MM over Grissom any day because 6 years of control means nothing if the guy isn’t above league average at hitting and fielding.
We agree on how incredibly bad this team is at hitting but we disagree on how to evaluate a guy like Abreu. He’s similar to a Soler. A few really big games surrounded by many many hitless games. Fans tend to remember the big games and forget the long droughts. Kinda like Kiki Hernandez who sucked and hit under .239 but everyone only remembers the end of 2021. His 5 minutes of fame.
The future lies in Devers moving to DH, O’Neill staying healthy and productive, Duran playing excellent defense and hitting well like he has the last two years, Rafaela playing SS in the future so Mayer can be traded while over rated, Abreu playing good RF defense next to Duran in CF and inconsistently but frequently hitting the ball well, Teel developing into a good hitting catcher with an arm, Casas staying healthy, and Grissom being better than a singles hitter and a better defender. When all that happens, Boston might compete if Mayer can get Boston a top of the rotation SP to add to the Houck, Crawford, Bello and Pivetta pitching staff. Hendriks will make for an excellent replacement for Kenley. They really need to deal Kenley to Texas so Yates can go back to the 8th inning.
Sorry for the long commentary but you and Fever had several long ones strung together so I wanted to respond to all of them in one comment.
Tough to read long comments in this format…
You make my point perfectly with your reference to the 2018 season! Just look at who they had batting there! The three regulars in the top four spots were Betts with a 1.079 OPS, JD Martinez with a 1.031 OPS, and Benintendi with a .833 OPS. The other guys who cycled through the top of the order (including Moreland and Pearce) also hit pretty well.
I don’t see Betts or JD Martinez on this team! Heck, their best hitter has just an .857 OPS when hitting in a top four spot — barely better than Benintendi. Duran (.732 OPS) and O’Neill (.780 OPS) are as good as anybody they have right now but that’s not saying much.
There is no way of juggling this lineup to turn these guys into Betts, Benintendi, and JD Martinez like your comparison implies. The talent level simply doesn’t compare.
Now, if you want to show me an example of a team with a slash line of .242/.314/.395 and a 26% strikeout rate that led the league in offense and won the World Series, I’m all ears! Until then I’m going to stand my ground and insist that the talent matters more than where they bat on a given night.
I agree that Rafaela has more athletic potential than Abreu, but at this point in his career he doesn’t control the strike zone. If he can learn not to chase 43% of pitches out of the zone, he’ll have more consistent success. And I agree that he is on a hot streak of sorts — but even so he has an OBP under .300 over the last two weeks.
Doesn’t really bother me if Cora wants to bat him second sometimes, because the lineup order matters less than who you have playing. Just silly to make a big deal out of it.
FWIW, Abreu struggles against lefties. Need to take that into account when deciding where he should hit. In a key situation in the late innings, he WILL see a lefty.
My apologies if you think that Cooper, Dom Smith, Grissom, and Rafaela are better hitters than McGuire. I won’t argue that one too hard other than to point out that there should be NO QUESTION that McGuire is the weakest hitter on the team. The fact that it is even remotely debatable is exactly my point — there isn’t enough offensive talent on this roster and no lineup order is going to fix that fundamental problem.
Devers grounds out on the first pitch of the 8th, then the next four guys in a row all whiff. At least Rafaela put together a good AB. If he keeps doing that, he’ll be fine. Kid has so much athletic ability.
TFF – My lineup construction stance isn’t based on just 130 years of logic, it’s also based on analytics by experts such as the great Bill James.
Lineup Position – PA’s
1 767
2 749
3 732
4 714
5 697
6 680
7 661
8 643
9 625
The difference between batting leadoff and batting cleanup is only 53 more PA’s …. that’s just 2 more PA’s a week.
Now how often does each lineup position come up with men on base?
Lineup Position – Men on Base
1 259
2 323
3 351
4 363
5 333
6 314
7 304
8 293
9 288
That’s 104 more opportunities to drive in a baserunner which is 4 more RBI a week.
104 more RBI opportunities has a lot more value than 53 more PA’s.
“What does this tell me? Your best hitters should bat in the number three and number four spots in the order. Put the speedier (and/or higher on-base) of the two in the number three slot. Follow that up with your next best on-base guys in the number one and two spots. Five through nine go with the best to worst with the remaining players.” — Bill James
Of course I agree with you on them not having enough good bats in the lineup. But here’s the thing …. they are 12th in MLB for OPS but 24th for BA with RISP …. that is a HUGE disparity which is abnormal.
What does it indicate?
When there’s RISP the opposing pitchers are more effective bearing down than Sox hitters are.
And Sox hitters don’t perform as well as opposing pitchers in big moment situations.
Sure youth has something to do with it, as more experience builds confidence. But truth is several of these guys are simply not major league hitters.
Dom Smith has just a .660 OPS since 2021.
Garrett Cooper is a little better with a .716 OPS since last year, but not by much.
David Hamilton has a career .513 OPS
And Rafaela has a career .636 OPS
That’s half of tonight’s lineup!
Throw in O’Neill who has 47 strikeouts in just 121 AB’s and is hitting just .154 with RISP and guess what? That’s a really crappy lineup they’ve got.
And BTW I never thought I’d say this, but Cora’s lineup order tonight was excellent.
Now here’s the scary part …. their offense will even be worse over the next month.
Why? Because they have played only 3 games against the Top 5 pitching staffs in MLB, but during the next month they will be playing FIFTEEN games against them.
It’s gonna get uglier ….
TFF17 – I didn’t imply we can create 2018, I was pointing out a philosophy that is well accepted that states your best hitters hit in the first four slots and that’s how your team maximizes scoring. I think we violently agree on this point and on the point that this team is woefully short of talent.
TFF – The only caveat, Grissom is still recovering from the flu. When he is fully recovered, I think he will be a decent hitter.
And no, McGuire will never bat as high as fourth …. but I can certainly see him batting as high as 5th someday …. behind Duran, Abreu, Wong and Devers. I think we are gonna see Wong DH’ing a lot more often when he’s not catching.
Bruin – Thanks you are right, I think I was going by what the announcers originally said about the play.
You could be right about Anderson.
Sure, I absolutely agree on that. Your best four hitters bat in the top four spots in the lineup, and both the #3 and #4 hitters need to have some thump in their game. The hitters at the top of the order should be able to consistently grind good AB, not just go on a hot streak for a week like Duvall or Story or O’Neill.
Cora has been pretty consistent at batting Duran and Devers in the top four. There were a handful of games that he batted Casas #5 or #6, in an attempt to spread out the lefties, but he otherwise has done exactly what you suggest.
There isn’t really anybody else on the roster who fits the bill, either as a #2 type or as a #3/#4 to complement Devers. Story isn’t consistent enough. O’Neill is more of a #5/#6 guy. Wong has been hot, but isn’t really all that good. (Good enough for a catcher, but not a real cleanup hitter.)
And that’s why they are screwed…
@FPG? You’re still seeing the residual impact of Casas in the numbers. By the time the dust settles at the All-Star Break, the Red Sox will be bottom-five in run scoring. Certainly after adjusting for the boost they get from Fenway, and possibly without that adjustment.
You doubt me?!? Look at what Cooper and Dom are hitting, and they are your 1B and DH, the power positions.
I agree that Grissom will settle in, but he’s a rookie. Give him time… Same way I feel about Rafaela.
McGuire is your classic #8 hitter when he isn’t batting #9. If he is batting fifth, there’s no point in watching the Red Sox half of the innings.
TF – Great post, on behalf of everyone thank you! Never need to apologize for writing too much.
I’ve said elsewhere, I think Jansen or Martin will end up with Baltimore.
Duran made another excellent play tonight, he has really become a GG caliber fielder with offense comparable to Damon. It will be kind of a waste if he’s moved back to LF next year.
Just curious, why so down on Abreu? He’s got an .865 OPS and has made some great plays in the field.
TF – I totally agree! Casas and especially O’Neill really carried the offense the first few weeks of the season. But with Casas out and O’Neill crashing hard there’s just nobody else who has stepped up to fill the void.
In fact Tyler is hitting just .164 in his last 15 games with 29 strikeouts in 55 AB’s ….. and believe it or not he’s gotten even worse in his last 7 games batting .120 with 15 strikeouts in just 25 AB’s … that’s a 60% strikeout rate!
All they can really do until Casas and/or Yoshida return is play Duran/Abreu/Wong/Devers at the top of the lineup nearly every day and hope the pitching can hold out.
BTW – Grissom lost 14 pounds when he got the flu, it’s gonna take a while to build back his strength. He’s been good defensively though.
@FPG, Casas has MVP potential if he can figure out how to stay healthy. Truly impressive plate coverage for a power hitter, Despite his initial rookie struggles, he is #18 in the majors in OPS since the start of 2023. and #13 over the last calendar year.
His problem is that OPS doesn’t win games on the DL.
TFF – I know!! My interpreter placed preseason wagers on Casas to win MVP and also hit the most homeruns in the majors, so needless to say I …… err, he is a big believer in Casas.
The Red Sox are 18th in the majors in both R and RBI from the top four spots in the batting order. They are also 18th in the majors in R from the lower five slots — but 10th in RBI from the lower half. They could likely do a better job of concentrating their production at the top of the order, but it is pretty weak no matter how you hash it.
One of the difficulties is the number of lefties on the roster. Just three RHH regulars – O’Neill, Wong, and Rafaela. O’Neill is batting .154 with RISP, and neither Wong nor Rafaela is somebody I would normally think of as a “middle of the order” hitter. Even with the improvements Wong has made this year. With Casas and Yoshida out, they don’t have too many good lefties either. Especially given Abreu’s platoon splits. Duran is fine at leadoff, Devers can bat #3 or #4, but beyond that I see a whole lot of question marks.
Still looking for Betts and JD Martinez on the roster, couldn’t find them the first time I checked.
TFF – The bigger picture concern is clearly the strikeouts.
They have struck out 430 times, 2nd in MLB to only the Mariners.
And again, they really haven’t faced good pitching yet. But they will during the next month with 15 games against Top 5 pitching staffs.
The MLB average right now is 22.4% K. Jarren Duran isn’t too bad, at 22.6%, but then he would be much better with his speed if he could make above average contact. Devers at 24.1% isn’t at all bad for a power hitter. No real excuse for Rafaela (25.5%) or O’Neill (32.9%).
But that’s just those with qualifying AB. Wong is slighly better than average at 20.4%, but very rarely walks which detracts from the whole. Which leaves Refsnyder and Yoshida as the only players on the team with solid plate discipline and contact ability.
I’m not going to dish on Casas or Abreu, but contact is not their strength.
TFF – I was wondering why your percentages were lower than mine, I see you’re using PA’s instead of AB’s. I can see arguments for and against either methodology. The way I look at it, when he’s intentionally walked like he was last Saturday there’s no possibility to get a hit or strikeout therefore he shouldn’t get “credit” for not striking out …. but either way, the team strikes out way too much. It’s fine if you combine the power with the strikeouts, like with Casas and Devers, but guys like Rafaela should not be swinging for the fences all the time. I think Fatse’s biggest challenge is to get him to stop swinging hard at every pitch. With his speed all he needs is to make good contact for him to reach base.
I’m no fan of Cora but in this current Red Sox team I understand why Abreu is hitting higher in the lineup and that’s because he gets on base. He has always got on base at high clip and quite frankly Rafaela doesn’t get on base at a very high clip never has and probably never will. Abreu is likely to always have significant swing and miss in his game but he’s also likely to always be a pretty high on base guy with good pop in his bat. The offense looks a lot better if Abreu is afforded to bat in the bottom third of the lineup with Rafaela but due to injuries he’s being thrust into the top of the lineup and he’s there because he gets on base.
Bruin – I totally agree, yesterday’s lineup was the best possible and I hope it continues until Casas and/or Yoshida return.
Exactly. I’m more comfortable with Abreu in the top four (at least against RHP) than I am with Wong, whatever the numbers suggest. And O’Neill has started to struggle badly.
TFF – Yeah I’m giving Tyler the benefit of the doubt that it’s concussion related, but we will never know for sure. Obviously his .707 OPS from 2022-2023 indicates he wasn’t very good even before the concussion.
Bruin1012 – Once again you stretched the truth about how well Abreu has hit. You do realize that from 2017 when he was 18 to 2023 when he was 24 he NEVER hit over .300?
The first time was when he was in the majors and all because of 3 games!!!! But hey he has always walked well!!
Also Abreu never hit over 20 home runs except for 22 at AAA in 2023. Not much of a power hitter either. Abreu stole 23 bases in 89 games in 2022 but hasn’t stolen jack since.
Those are the FACTS on Abreu not the exaggerated comments that you provided. Yes, he is a good walker. Not a good hitter for average, not a power guy, not a speed guy and we watched him miss a ball that went over the fence yesterday that he should have caught but he doesn’t cover the ground like the good outfielders cover and he’s awkward like Verdugo at playing right field and going back and to his left to reach up and catch a fly ball. So, not positioned well in Right Field. He needs to work on his footwork going back just like Verdugo.
Rafaela hit .299 in 2022 and .302 in 2023. Apparently, being an aggressive hitter may have led to some higher K levels while out hitting his fellow outfielder Abreu from a batting average stand point. He also hit roughly 20 home runs during his last two years in the minors at a younger age. He also stole 87 bases his last three years in the minors and like Mookie he’s a great outfielder and SS.
I’ll take Rafaela over Abreu any day and I’ll bat him in an impact position. I’ll also wait until the end of the year to compare the two players so everyone can see how incredibly streaky Abreu is and how many more times during the season Rafaela will put up a hit in a game. Right now, Abreu has played in 37 games and has a hit in 18 games. Not a very high percentage for a guy batting in the top 4, even on a bad team like this one. Rafaela has played in 43 games because he does not sit against lefties like Abreu, and he has a hit in 23 of the 43 games. That’s a hit in 53.5% of the games. Abreu has a hit in 48.6% of the games he’s played in.
This is a factual presentation that’s not opinion, hearsay or simply fabricated, it’s the facts as to why the better athlete should hit in the top four and the other guy should be thanking his lucky stars Anthony is off to a slow start in 2024.
Troll you should read before responding. All I said is that Abreu is much better at getting on base than Rafaela and that’s a fact. I never said anything about batting average I’m not going to bother with obp for both players over the years but it’s not even close. I have stated numerous times that imo he’s .250 hitter with some pop but that he does get on base a lot.
Bruin – What do you think of O’Neill’s benching yesterday on the heels of his most recent 4-strikeout game? Do you think he will be allowed to play during his homecoming this weekend? It’s hard to bench Ref, especially considering he’s been hitting very well against RHP. He’s having a strange season, normally he kills LHP but this year he’s been much better against RHP than LHP.
Bruin1012 – I simply clarified that his ability to get on base is primarily from walking. I acknowledged him as a good walker. But the discussion was about batting in the top 4 and being a good walker and an inconsistent hitter is NOT better than a player who hit nearly 50 points higher in the minors and should do so in the majors as he settles in. He’s younger and he really struggled before May but now he’s getting on track plus he’s playing a very tough position defensively considering he’s an outfielder and for his age he’s showing he’s more like Mookie than many people will admit.
Abreu is a prototypical 6 hitter. Since this team is missing Casas he should be batting 5th behind O’Neill. Duran, Rafaela, Devers, O’Neill and Abreu make sense. Until Wong cools off he should be 6, DH hits 7th, 1B 8th and Grissom 9th. When the catchers come back to reality they hit 8th and DH and 1B move up a slot. That line-up will maximize runs. It won’t change the winning much because the talent level is still far less than the other AL East teams but more runs will be scored.
I documented why 66 wins was the initial target prior to the season and the team has played 14 series so far. The last 7 series has finished as predicted and the team thanks to beating up the bad teams early is now on a pace to win 68. That will get Boston a top 10 pick. The upcoming month of games will continue to move the team record down below .500.and by June 1 the team should be roughly 8 games below .500.. June is a very tough month and the team should lose another 6 games to .500 and be 14 below .500 by July. The good news is some of the players will be coming back and the schedule in July like in 2023 will be the easiest other than April. They may only lose a game or two to .500 in July and if they beat up the bad teams like they did earlier they could actually break even or be above .500 for the month. After that a 40% win rate is likely, especially in September when they once again take on the AL East far more than the rest of the season.
Hopefully by then, the kids will be far more experienced and have learned how to adjust to how the opposing pitchers are getting them out and their defense has improved so the team will be ready for the move of Devers to DH in 2025.
Fever – Why not use Ref as DH while he is hot? O’Neill needs to play. Other than Devers and Duran he’s the only other real threat in the line-up on a day to day basis. The pretenders like Wong, Grissom, the two new guys and McGuire in the end are hurting the team not helping it. Replacing them with talented players would be the goal if there was a way to spend money and get quality players.
TF – You know who was a good walker?
Chico Walker ….. remember him? Haha!
TF – I agree! Ref as DH is okay with me. I know everyone is down on O’Neill, but he still can hit the occasional big homerun like he did on Monday.
I don’t think it really matters with the Red Sox missing Casas, Masa, and Story I say play O’Neil. He at least can do some damage. I think Cora should play the kids as well. I just can’t see this team without those three guys competing for much of anything. I think they really miss Casas but if Masa is healthy I think he hits second and Abreu is hitting in the 6-8 position depending on how he’s hitting. It’s a shame that Abreu has to hit in the top of the order he’s not ready for that. I don’t think Rafaela is anywhere near ready to hit anywhere but at the end of the lineup. The things that concerned me about Rafaela after watching him in the minors a lot is his chase. Not necessarily for excessive strikeouts but for weak contact and that has been the case. He just isn’t impacting the baseball he’s getting himself out by swinging at bad pitches. He’s also hitting way too many balls into the air he has great speed he needs to hit more balls on the ground.
Bruin – What’s interesting is Rafaela got benched today in favor of Hamilton, who got a huge clutch 2-run hit. The Sox should sweep this weekend, then the schedule gets much tougher.
BTW – Awful news on Whitlock. The radio guys said he woke up with his elbow “exploded” from massive swelling, definitely not a good sign. The longterm contract extension he signed with Bloom is looking worse and worse every day.
Meanwhile Imanaga continues to lead MLB with a 0.96 ERA, Lugo is 4th with a 1.66 ERA, and Sale 15th with a 2.54 ERA. All guys they either had or could have signed to reasonable contracts.
The Bello extension is starting to worry me, he had a really crappy birthday game tonight …… 5 ER in 4 2/3 innings before getting pulled, not good. Three homeruns, not good.
It’s one start from Bello and the contract for Whitlock is basically peanuts.