Right-hander Spencer Turnbull has been a revelation in the Phillies’ rotation after filling in for the injured Taijuan Walker to begin the season. While Walker’s return from the injured list might have seemed like an obvious means of pushing Turnbull back into a long relief role earlier in the season, Turnbull has pitched so well that the Phils likely feel they can’t take him out of his current spot.
Indeed, manager Rob Thomson told the Phillies beat yesterday that the club will consider creative means of keeping Turnbull in the mix — be it piggybacking him with another starter or alternating between Sanchez and Turnbull in the fifth spot of the rotation depending on the opponent they’re facing (links via Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com).
The Phillies’ rotation, as a whole, has been remarkable this season. Philadelphia starters rank first in the majors with 190 2/3 innings pitched, second with a 2.50 ERA, second with a 26% strikeout rate, tenth with a 7% walk rate and third with a 52% ground-ball rate. Their collective 3.28 FIP is also second-best in MLB, and Phillies starters lead the league with a 3.22 SIERA. By virtually any measure, they’ve been outstanding.
Righties Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are both out to excellent starts. Wheeler, in particular, is sitting on a sub-2.00 ERA with his typical blend of plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. Nola is sporting a 3.20 mark with a roughly average strikeout rate and a strong 7% walk rate. He’s been a bit homer-prone for what’s now a second straight season, but he’s generally pitched well in the first season of his new seven-year contract.
Left-hander Ranger Suarez has arguably been the team’s most effective starter. He touts a team-best 1.32 ERA through his first six turns on the mound. He’s logged 41 innings with a plus 27.8% strikeout rate and elite walk and ground-ball rates (3.5% and 60.8%, respectively). He won’t sustain a .189 BABIP and 92.9% strand rate, but the skill components of his performance have been terrific.
Fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez has been solid, recording a 3.68 ERA in 29 1/3 frames. His 22% strikeout rate is barely south of average, and while his 9.8% walk rate is on the high side, he’s helped mitigate some of those free passes with a massive 62.2% grounder rate. Righty Taijuan Walker just returned from the injured list and was hit hard in his first start, but he was a quality innings eater for the Phils last year (4.32 ERA in 31 starts) and is being paid $18MM this season to fill that role again.
Turnbull’s run-prevention thus far is right up there with Wheeler and Suarez. Through six starts, he’s pitched 32 1/3 innings of 1.67 ERA ball with an excellent 28.7% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate that’s about a percentage point better than average. He’s not sitting at Suarez/Sanchez levels with his ground-ball rate, but his mark of 49.4% is still comfortably north of the 43% league average.
A piggyback situation with Sanchez or some kind of alternating fifth starter role could make particular sense for Turnbull, who missed the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and pitched only 57 innings between the big leagues and minors last year. At some point, his workload could become a factor, as his body simply hasn’t endured a full season of innings since the 2019 campaign, when he started 30 games for the Tigers and pitched 148 1/3 innings.
The more straightforward solution would be to go to a six-man rotation, but Thomson has suggested in the past that the team doesn’t consider that a likely arrangement. However they proceed, it seems Turnbull — who has already wildly outperformed his modest one-year, $2MM deal — will continue to factor prominently into the team’s pitching staff as he gears up for what seems likely to be a much more lucrative trip through free agency again next winter.
With the never=ending search for starting pitching, how did Turnbull fall through the cracks? Did the Phillies unlock something or did other teams just fail to scout him? Was it his perceived attitude issues with the Tigers?
It’s super early still in the season, but Dombrowski has put together a team that has a really good chance to make a deep playoff run, and even possibly win it. This team is really good.
DD could pick up a DFA or make a trade to give the offense another spark plug. A high OBP, defensive player with speed. Rojas, Pache could be that player and Castellanos’ statistics should improve the rest of the year.
Teams like LAA, CHIW, COL, MIA and other should be making a lot of roster changes the rest of the year.
He was coming off injury, so that was part of it.
Some guys just need a change of scenery..you cant put much stock in unlocking since virtually every team can tout one of these success stories..otherwise injury aside why hasnt walker worked out?
Meant to say worked out the same..since he hasnt been bad i dont think
Change of sceneary worked out for Brad Lidge after he went to Philly. Maybe it works out for Turnbull.
Perhaps the Phillies look to lock him up for a one or two year extension. Having these starters is a luxury that I wouldn’t want to part with. Especially if an injury occurs. There’s also not a lock for Painter to be ready for 2025.
He butted heads with Tigers GM Scott Harris. I don’t know why that precluded Detroit from getting something in return tho. Pride I think. DFA was wrong choice.
Agreed. Harris decided Turnbull had a bad attitude, because he was injured. Harris said he wasn’t. Rather than tender a contract for $2MM, Harris cut him and spent $14MM on Flaherty. Haven’t heard a word about his bad attitude out of Philly.
DFA was odd, on paper in certainly seemed like you could get SOMETHING in return for him. After he threw the no hitter in detroit, he never returned to very good form. he was injured right after. came back, pitched awful, got sent down to AAA, then he claimed he had been pitching through a neck soreness that he told no one about, and then spent months on the big league IL. When he was ready to return there was a bit of drama, I cant remember 100%, but thats sort of the gist of it. he’s doing great now, but at the time i didnt talk to a single tiger’s fan who was sad to see him go. myself included. he’s pitched a total of 170 innings since the start of 2020. let’s not pretend he’s going to throw 150+ innings this year, especially with his injury history.
The Phillies have an enviable rotation and have a good problem on their hands with so many quality arms available. Pitching depth will always win in the playoffs!
Just make Sanchez the swing man and spot starter again under the guise of conserving his innings. Easy peasy
This is the answer imo
Taijuan to the pen.
I don’t think they want an 18 million dollar reliever. But as a braves fan I have to admit how good the Phillies are and how good the rotation has been and putting Walker is a relief roll might not be a bad idea at least until he’s a little further removed from his injury, especially if he gets hit hard again in his next start. That’s how crazy good the Phillies are that Walker still got the win despite allowing 6 runs. I hope the braves have it in us to finally get past them this year, it’ll be another hard as hell fight know that much.
As a Phillies fan, I wouldn’t want it any other way. Many people think the Phillies biggest rival is the Mets. I disagree it has almost always been (in my lifetime) the Braves.
I find that to be the marquee rivalry in the NL East.
The Mets are the closest rival, and there’s always a certain Philly/New York thing. Certainly in competitive terms the Braves have been a more potent team, but there isn’t quite the same level of dislike.
Not even close. Phillies and Met fans can drive to each others stadiums and get under each others skin. You are only looking at the last two playoff series.
Dude, II go back to the 1993 playoff series. The Mets have NEVER been able to hold either teams jockie strap.
How many times have the Phillies and Mets met when it mattered?
Every time it does, it’s Phillies and Braves.
The only people that want to watch Mets/Phillies are the drunken idiots that are more interested in the fight than the game.
What are you even talking about? The Phillies have had two good playoff runs and that’s it. The Braves have dominated otherwise. From 2012-2018 the Mets dominated the Phillies series every year. Two years ago the Mets went 14-5 against the Phillies. Even last year the Phillies only went 7-6 against the Mets in the Mets flop of a season. You guys get a couple good playoff runs and it gets into your heads like your some dynasty or something.
Hey. just pointing out that the first reference of Christopher Sanchez simply says “Sanchez” in the first paragraph, while his first and last name are named for the first time 5 paragraphs later.
Turnbull isn’t that good. Hes had a good stretch of games to start the season. The Phillies should keep giving him chances since hes performed when called upon but his success won’t last. A good stretch doesn’t make someone a good pitcher. Just look at Jordan Yamamoto’s first 6 starts in the majors compared to the rest of his career. I give it a month before Turnbull is relegated to mopup duty/ long relief
Love the lack of facts in your observation of Turnbull. He was quite solid in Detroit and was still improving when he threw his no hitter. Never discount a pitcher who is in the Hall of Fame while still in his career.
@stymeedone he lost like 17 games in a season one year. Enough said
His team lost those games pitchers individual win/loss stats are not really relevant..the fact he was allowed to pitch in enough games to lose 17 says they trusted him enough to hand him the ball..fwiw verlander lost 17 games for the tigers in 2008…enough said
I think Turnbull fell to the Phillies because of his agent, Boras and Philly GM, Dombrowski. They have worked together before.
Yes, Turnbull fell out of favor with the Tigers. Remember, the Tigers were also dealing with another diva, E. Rodriguez. They also had Parker Meadows issues too. So the Tigers sort of got fatigued with all of them. They paid out a lot of $$$ and got little in return.
Turnbull, IMHO, did not want to struggle last year in Motwon. He started out poorly after missing all of ’23. He didn’t want to go to Toldeo and when he did come back late in the season he wasn’t good and unilaterally took himself out of play. I think Boras was coaching him a little there too. Again, JMHO.
Nevertheless, its good to see him having success. Could he be this year’s Mike Lorenzen? Great 1st half and then reverts to the mean? I suspect Boras will get him a good deal after this season and it won’t work out well for his new team, whoever that is.
The 6 man rotation makes the most sense but teams really don’t want to go that route.
It would help limit the innings on Walker, Turnbull, and Sanchez and benefit the whole staff. Crazy that more teams don’t embrace it yet
If you were paying Wheeler and Nola what the Phillies are, would you want to decrease their innings? Cut down on Ranger while he is lightning hot?
I’d have no problem with some sort of hybrid rotation of 1-3, and then a three-man mix for the 4th and 5th slots, though.
Yes I would on Nola in particular. Mostly based on how often pitchers get injured, especially when overused. I personally would see it as protecting my long term investments. Players on the last year of a deal, I would be okay with pushing harder. Like Wheeler but I would still want to save some bullets for October and a 6 man helps do that.
Walker is arguably the worst of the bunch because of his higher era, so why not have him as the odd man out?
I’ve had this same problem before in OOTP so I’ll be curious to see what they do…
Wheeler has said he does NOT want a 6 man rotation.
Nice to see Turnbull doing well after whatever happened in Detroit. Will be interesting to see what they come up with as managing his innings is a good idea.