After the Mets’ record-setting spending failed to bring them even a winning record heading into late July of last season, the team instead generated headlines by selling instead of buying, moving Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and several others in a variety of deals prior to the trade deadline. Since the Mets were reportedly open to considering all options on shorter-term talent, the club even had some discussions about moving Pete Alonso, who is a free agent this coming offseason. The Brewers and Cubs were among the teams that at least checked in on Alonso’s status, but obviously no deal was struck, and the Polar Bear remains in a Mets uniform to this very day.
The trade explorations came after, however, the Mets made an attempt to lock Alonso up for the remainder of the decade. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets offered Alonso a seven-year, $158MM extension last June, which would’ve kept him in Queens through his age 29-35 seasons. According to Sherman, “the sides never got close to a deal,” which is why the Mets then shifted to at least testing the waters to see what Alonso might net on the trade market.
The length and amount of the Mets’ offer exactly matches the final seven years of Matt Olson’s extension with the Braves, signed back in March 2022. Olson was two years away from free agency at the time of that long-term deal, and the final dollar figure was an eight-year pact worth $168MM in guaranteed money, plus the Braves hold a $20MM club option for the 2030 season. New York’s offer to Alonso apparently didn’t involve a club option, but it otherwise mirrored Olson’s deal minus the $15MM Olson earned in 2022 (the first year of the extension). Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162MM contract with the Dodgers was another comp, as the Mets’ offer gave Alonso more actual money than Freeman due to the deferrals involved in the L.A. first baseman’s contract.
Olson and Freeman were obvious benchmarks for Alonso as fellow star first basemen, and reports from last November suggested that Alonso wants a “much bigger” contract than either of those two deals. In the least surprising news possible, Alonso’s agent Scott Boras feels the same way, as Boras told Sherman that Alonso’s market stands apart from other recent major first baseman contracts due to Alonso’s age (he’ll be 30 on Opening Day 2025) and because the dynamics of extensions and free agent deals differ.
“The market for consistent 40-homer, durable, infield-capable, true middle-of-the-lineup sluggers is the question,” Boras said. “Note there are none available in free agency and none coming [in the next few years]. Plus, he’s New York proven, which is an unanswered question for many others — not Pete. It’s elite-level durability and production at a prime age, which is simply something most MLB teams do not possess. They will covet the opportunity to have free-agent access to such talent.”
It is worth noting that Alonso was a client of Apex Sports when he and the Mets were negotiating that extension, and Alonso then changed representation to the Boras Corporation after the season. With a few notable exceptions over the years, Boras clients generally end up heading to the open market rather than signing a contract extension, so it would count as a big surprise if Alonso and the Mets agreed to a new deal this close to Alonso’s arrival on the open market.
Alonso burst onto the scene with a 53-homer season in 2019, earning both NL Rookie of the Year honors and the first of three career All-Star berths (and the first of two Home Run Derby crowns during All-Star festivities). Naturally this made Alonso an instant star in New York, and he has kept up the power by hitting 202 homers and slashing .249/.340/.524 over his career. Those 202 homers is the most of any player since the start of the 2019 campaign.
This season has largely been more of the same, as Alonso has hit .226/.307/.458 with 10 homers in his first 189 plate appearances of 2024. However, Alonso is now in his second consecutive season with a below-average hard-hit ball rate, even if his barrel rate remains outstanding. Overall, Alonso is still mashing the ball when he makes premium contact, but is having trouble with anything less than a barrel, giving how his batting averages have declined — a .261 average in his first four seasons but only .219 since. Beyond these numbers, teams could also have the usual concerns attached to giving any first-base only player a big guaranteed deal into his 30’s, and beyond the bat, Alonso’s defense is considered average at best.
Leaving $158MM on the table could loom large for Alonso should he hit an extended slump that drags down his overall production, or if he gets injured. (Though Alonso has been very durable over his career, with only two minimal trips to the injured list.) There is also the possibility that this winter’s free agent market could somewhat resemble the staid proceedings of this past offseason, when several top free agents — including several Boras clients — had to settle for smaller deals than expected. If any of Alonso’s red flags become more glaring over the course of the 2024 campaign, teams might first attempt to see if they can wait out the market to see if Alonso could be had for the kind of short-term, opt-out heavy contracts signed by the “Boras Four” this past winter.
On the other hand, a standard Alonso type of season should provide a very nice platform, and the Polar Bear ranked fourth in MLB’s most recent Power Rankings of the 2024-25 free agent class. The first baseman’s chances of scoring a deal closer to $200MM than $158MM are also helped by the fact that Mets owner Steve Cohen has expressed his hope that Alonso will remain with the team over the long term, and Cohen hasn’t been shy about spending big to obtain his preferred targets. President of baseball operations David Stearns will obviously have a way in whatever direction the Mets take with pursuing Alonso, but if Cohen is willing to outbid the market for a particular fan favorite, Alonso might have a particular edge that other free agents don’t, depending on how aggressive the Mets will be on players beyond Alonso.
I have a feeling his trip to free agency won’t be what he expected.
7/280 from a random ass team like The Twins.
That’s Boras specialty gets you paid out from a team whose winning future is bleak.
Never. He’s going to regret not using last year’s offer to negotiate a reasonable deal. Question for me is if he gets hot, will Boras’ consider negotiating before he cools down? Alonso has one card and a down HR year in 24 might find the Mets bidding only against themselves.
Ok but he’s already on pace to have a good hr year
“Good homerun year”…True, but teams today are reluctant to pay single tool, corner players the $200M+ that Pete apparently thinks he deserves. Look at 96% of the $200M+ players in MLB and they’re almost always good baserunners and strong players on both sides of the ball.
Big exception is Devers and there were a lot of external factors there. That said, the Sox have to regret that deal despite his present hit bad and better defense.
“Big exception is Devers”…True that. Juan Soto will no doubt be the next big exception to that general rule of thumb.
Ahhh no he’s not…
I have read many of the comments (below) where the discussion / debate revolves around whether Alonso = Olson = Goldschmidt = Freeman type contracts.
Personally, he should have accepted the offer last year for the “Olson” contract. As unpopular as this might seem, I hope the Mets are considering shopping him around.
I am curious to learn what YOU believe the Mets would actually GET in a deal where they move Alonso at (or before) the deadline in his walk year.
I think they get a middle range top 100 type, a 50 FV type prospect and some change.
Depends on whether he’s on one of his good streaks at the time of the deal. Deadline deals for rentals are influenced by how they’re doing at the time. When he gets hot, he hits 10 HR and has 20+ rbi a month. Some team will give something meaningful for that if they really need it.
Agree. While his home run power is desirable despite a low average, his 1B defense is mediocre at best and really can’t compare to those of Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson. He very well might turn out to be another Adam Dunn.
Except he’s a far better all around hitter than Dunn was
Adam Dunn drew 100 walks 8 times. Alonso’s numbers are a joke compared to Dunn’s.
Neithers numbers should be considered a joke
@kingzeke8 – let’s take a look at age 24-29 seasons:
Player A: .252/.385/.532, 135 OPS+
Player B: .250/.340/.523, 134 OPS+
Player A was more solid ages 27-29 (137 OPS+, .390 OBP) , whereas player B has taken a notable step back
Player A is Dunn … you probably recall him being more mediocre because he took a notable step back after his age 30 season
Smart move was trading Alonso last offseason
When Pete hits 250ish, he’s extremely valuable in the non-PED era. The most HR and RBI in baseball from 2019-23. But his average and OBP the last two years really limit his value.
@Ma4170 Well, he’s not close to extremely valuable.’
Hitting .250 he’s roughly a 3.5 bWAR defensively-challenged but defensively-playable slugger turning 30 for 2025, a RH hitting 1Bman, the decline of which is all but predictable.
Doesn’t matter much what Alonso would be if he was something other than what he is, since it’s a fair bet he’ll never hit .250 again.
2019 is long gone, and over the projection horizon of every credible projection system ever devised. That means Pete’s been sub-par by your standards in 3 of his last 5 seasons, 2 of which in fairness are partial. Still, from 2020 through today his bWAR per 650 PA is a useful but modest 3.3. Kick out the oddball 2020 season for whatever reason and he’s still at 3.6 bWAR per 650.
Take his most recent 850 PA since the beginning of 2023, and he’s averaging an unfortunate 2.7 bWAR per 650 PA. This are his primary projectable numbers, and they tell us Pete’s likeliest future involve at most one season of 3 bWAR or better.
Even 7/$153 is a gross overpay, adding yet another 30 and over player to an old team with a very old nucleus. It’s only commercial concerns that keep Pete in New York. —In strictly baseball terms, not dealing him was foolish, since you’ll never pay what some desperate team with a GM on the last year of his deal will offer.
Likeliest outcome? Pete has second weak year in a row, the Mets pretend to be in on an extension or FA deal, and let him walk for the pick—unless they’re bowled over by a trade offer at the Deadline with the Mets playing .450 ball.
I dont want to get in a big debate about WAR, but its not the only measure of value and definitely has its flaws. He has a career 932 ops w RISP which is why he drives in 100 so often. Theres a reason only 17 players in MLB on average have driven in 100+ last three years. He was a 136 WRC+ player in 2021-22 when his avg was in the 250-60 range. And even his defense has improved as you said. I could say very valuable instead of extremely but if he was traded or a FA after 2022, he would have drawn huge interest. But last year+ hitting below 220 and obp dipping so low, hes just a low avg power hitter.
Yeah, and while he may only be 30 on Opening Day next year, a long-term contract will still take him into his mid to late 30s. Plus, Olson was even younger when he signed his deal.
Unless he expected $300 million, Petey is going to get paid pretty clise to what he expected.
Freeman’s AAV is a good comp for Petey and since he is 2 years younger he is going to get 1-2 more years.
His next deal should be a huge jump up from what the Mets offered unless his bat disappears this year.
Agreed. Mets are better off moving him. He can’t hit for average, is horrendous at 1B, and whines like a child. If he thinks he’s getting more than Freeman or Olson, he’s off his rocker. They’re both substantially better than him in everything with the exception of HRs.
@padam I don’t want him back even at 7/153, but Pete’s an acceptably below average defensive 1Bman, hardly “horrendous.” His scooping has improved, he dives and recovers well, particularly for a big guy, he’s very good on leading the pitcher to the bag on ground balls to his right. He’s… okay on popups, but since he’s not fast he misses a few.
You know we count all this stuff, now, right? :-o)
Well, they’ll want to keep him on if on the off chance they’re in contention at the trade deadline. They aren’t completely out of the playoff race yet.
I wonder who will join that wonderful Boras 4 this year? Entry 1, The Polar Bear…
Entry 2 is Soto, obviously.
Depends on how he finishes the yr. But I also think that the top core teams who have been signing tons of guys they may not sign 200 million men every yr either. He only needs one sucker and Boras is GREEDY.
Alonso should have taken the money when he had a chance.
I think that offer was about right and it will still be there for him in free agency. Pete just has to decide if he wants $160 million with the Mets or with another team. No way is Pete going to have to settle for a Belli like deal with the Cubs. But unless he hits 50 home runs this year, I don’t see him breaking $200 million.
Alonso has been consistently really good. But he isn’t playing that way in 2024. If he has the same OPS at the end of the season that he does now he won’t get that kind of money.
Even if he ends up with comparable offensive numbers compared to previous years, he likely will miss Spring Training and sign for a shorter, higher AAV contract.
Alonso’s defense has typically not been as strong as Olson’s and Freeman’s fielding abilities.
A longer trend is not shelling out massive contracts to cold corner guys anymore.
Maybe all heads of front offices have universally concluded that Pujols and Chris Davis type deals are just bad business.
The feast or famine, defensively challenged slugger (granted, Alonso has improved his glove work) don’t get paid (relative to other positions) how they used to be paid.
The 1B who was non-tendered by Milwaukee several years ago and Trumbo are more extreme examples of this trend.
Goldschmidt got 5 years 130 million and won an MVP at 34 years of age. It’s not impossible for a 1b to perform in his 30s.
Yes, but Goldie is more in the Freeman tier. ALSO, that contract range likely won’t be acceptable to Boras. Polar Bear can aget more assertive about his future and tell Boras to accept a similar deal rather than push for more.
Black pink
It’s also not impossible for a 1B in his 30s to perform the way Goldie is playing this year.
He’s off to a bad start at age 36 in year 5 of his 5 year deal. I will take that any day of the week for a big money contract. He earned half that contract in his MVP season easy.
Chris carter
& Paul Goldschmidt was an elite hitter and a great defender & base runner.
Alonso is none of those. He’s a great power hitter and that’s it.
Goldie, Olson and Freeman are more than just pluggable first basemen as well with Olson and Goldy having 50+ DRS each. They all hit for power – Olson being more comparable to Alonso – while also being more efficient at getting on base (Freeman/Goldie being elite throughout their entire long careers).
Pete really does remind me of Hamilton from The Sandlot. A big, goofy, likable oaf. But Boras will be shooting Alonso in the foot if he thinks he is nearly as valuable as those players are. Even considering inflation, I don’t think his market value will be clearing any of those contracts due to his overall skillset alongside economic realities.
Wish the best for Pete in FA, but he really does seem a little bit of a dope when it comes to things he says and decisions he makes.
And he’s hitting .216 this year
That’s correct, but Alonso is not asking for “its not impossible for a 1B to perform in his 30’s” money, though. He’s asking for “MVP at 34 years of age” money. I’d let someone else pay him that.
Maybe offer him a $5MM bonus for top 3, and $10MM bonus for winning.
@blackpink/joel
It’s not impossible, but it’s also not probable. Aside from HR Derbies, Goldschmidt has accomplished much more in his career than Alonso has.
The Scherzer deal is a good example of this. Sometimes teams will strike gold with a player, but the vast majority of the time they won’t.
Goldschmidt isn’t a good comp for Alonso given that Goldy was arguable a 5 tool player in his prime, while Alonso only has 1 tool.
Bold prediction. The market for aging sluggers with no positional value has really dried up. He might manage a higher AAV on a short deal (like Bellinger) but I don’t see a world in which he secures a larger total payout.
I think teams understand risk in those long term deals and when the bat slows things go upside down.
He’ll break 200M if he signs for 8 or more years.
7 years at 27.5M$ per with a TOPT for 27.5M$ and a 7.5M$ buyout will be 200M$. Seems about right.
I’m not entirely sure that 7/160m would still be on the table if things continue the way they’re trending.
He’s an aging 1B that has seen red flags trending the wrong way in 2023 and now 2024. A 2-war guy who doesn’t have the defense or baserunning isn’t someone you typically throw 20+ million a season at, nor look to lock up into their late 30s.
Not only have results trended south, he’s underperforming by a decent margin the projections for him in 2024 so far. Add into that those same projections he isn’t meeting forecasted a roughly 30% decline over these next 3 seasons, it gets downright scary to picture how the contract could age.
Offers may trend closer to 6/100 with some incentives if he wants a longer term deal, and, there may not even be one on the table unless things turn around.
Plenty of time this season to build a better platform season of course, but, he may need to take a pillow contract to try and turn things around with opt outs
6/100 is unrealistic as that is very low. In fact at that cost there would be more teams interested. The market may be changing, but not to that level.
@MannyBeingMVP If the Mets are smart, the 7/153m offer is off the table.
If Pete keeps hitting like this, or close to it, 4/100m is about all he’s going to get unless the Rockies pull a “Bryant.” (It really is a noun, now.)
The Mets have zero reason to sign Dave Kingman v2.0 to go with their ancient nucleus of Lindor, Nimmo, Senga, Diaz, Marte, McNeil.
Why do people think those guys are ALL struggling? Because they’re on the low side of 27 and can’t figure it out, or because in baseball years they’re, post-peak age, they’re old and getting older, and only Lindor ever resembled a superstar, so his decline into his 30s might not be hideous for a while—assuming he’s not collapsing right in front of us.
Cohen foolishly gambled on the Mets contending in 2023, 2024, and 2025, which is why he paid the big bucks to these guys. He whiffed, and now $100m+ a year going to an aging nucleus rather than to players with a future with the team..
Adding Pete to that group at $20m a year is senseless. It’s would be like the house is burning down and the Mets started moving the furniture IN.
Coming off the heels on the Mets trying to get Cora for 312 million I would say screw you too for lowballing me
“On the heels” is the saying
Maybe he should get some advice from Conforto?
Do you mean Correa? I can’t imagine they had any interest in signing Alex Cora for 312 million…
Perhaps it is just me, but the risk to reward ratio for someone such as Alonso (1B / great power / no average / mediocre glove / mediocre athleticism / general impression of potential aging curve) would have made me grab that offer. He can easily get more, but not by a large factor and the risk is that he not only gets less but also injury and downturn are in play.
Take the sure thing deal in hand and stop letting agents worry about setting new records on deals so that they can brag to new potential clients. Take care of your life, and then focus on baseball.
Right about December 2023 Pete looked around and went “ahhh shi*, that was a huge mistake”
Once Olson signed in 2022 Alonso looked around and said I will be the ONLY 1B available in the 2024-2025 offseason and said “OH YEAH, I AM GETTING PAID!”
Unlike Bellinger, Montgomery and Snell, Alonso has no age, injury or inconsistency question marks. As long as he performs this year, he is going to get much more than the Mets offered when he hits FA.
“I will be the only 1b available”…That would mean something if Pete were a CF or SS. First base is probably the easiest position to fill and teams are not devoting as much money to the position as in the past. Plus, I’m not sure Cohen wants to DOUBLE DOWN on a team core that’s essentially been .500 or below since Pete’s been there. How much is keeping a losing, poor offensive team together worth?
If Alonzo agrees to a 3 or 4 year contract, he might come close to averaging $25M/yr.
But if he thinks there will be a 7 or 8 year contract for that average, he’s likely to be hugely disappointed.
1B get paid. Look at Freeman, Olson, and Goldschmidt.
How exactly is Petey responsible for the Mets not performing? He performed.
I would not call a .40 drop in average, consistant.
All of them got less than Pujols, and Miggy. Pay for the position is dropping.
A comparison to Pujols and Cabrera is unfair to all the first basement mentioned in these comments. Two guys bound for the Hall? One guy who probably gets a statue across from Stan Musial, and another who probably gets one at Comerica Park? Unfair.
Its two months into the season. Acuna is hitting .260 with 2 homers. Alonso is a .250 type hitter. Olson had an outlier yr in 2023. Olson is hitting .222 with 5 homers. He is more like a .260 hitter.
No. It sounds like you will be disappointed when he gets paid. Why? You want the billionaire owners to be putting more money in their pockets?
You want the billionaire owners to be putting more money in their pockets?
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LOL at that philosophy. Guess why I want the RS to sign everyone to cheap or bargain prices? So that they can afford more cheap and bargain prices.
Most people don’t care about Henry’s bank balance, but do care about not overpaying for players.
Do you really think any fans in the entire planet are sitting there saying “I am so glad that my Angels are paying Rendon $245M’?
No fans want their team to overpay.
Freeman, Olson, and Goldy are all substantially better than Alonso.
That’s funny. No seriously what did they offer him? Ahahaha!
Why? The Yanks wants 3 firstbasemen?
The Yankees dont want another huge contract. Boras wants a Yankee tax. He thinks Soto is going to get 600+.
I join in your laughter. Ahahahaha!
Mets dodged a bullet
They definitely got the best first bagger in baseball. Olson is one hell of a silver metal for the Braves, though.
“Best first bagger in baseball”…As all around players, Freddy Freeman, Matt Olson & Goldy have been SUBSTANTIALLY better than Pete Alonso the last 3-5 years. There’s actually more to the game of baseball than launching bombs.
You serious, Clark? A career .249 hitter, with negative defensive value, who averages 3.9 WAR/season is your idea of the best 1st baseman in baseball? No wonder the Mets are an atrocious organization with fans like you.
He hasn’t been averaging 3.9 war lately. A shade below 3 last year, and, looking to decrease even lower than that his year, probably under 2.5 the way things are headed even if he stays healthy.
Alonso is the third best first baseman in his own division…
If Xander Bogaerts can get 280 million, Pete Alonso can get at least 200. He’s one of the best power hitters of this generation.
While that was a huge overpay, the thing is Xander is a SS with a talent for hitting. He doesn’t rely on power or even his speed. He is a solid, smart hitter. And his athleticism makes the investment less risky. Tho again it was WAY too much.
Sure, X is a smart hitter, but is that an advantage or disadvantage going into Petco? According to Park Factors, it’s lower than average in everything except BB, SO. It should also be noted that there were rumors that BOS was wanting to move him off of SS, despite a better def season his last year in BOS, which almost questions the premium pay for a premium position if SD wasn’t sold on his ability to stick there (at least past the first season in which they moved him off). Seems like they overpaid for his bat. Considering the change from offensive-Fenway to defensive-Petco, I’d say he’s been as advertised his first year, despite a bad start to ’24.
Not saying the Mets didn’t lowball Pete, but does anybody think the Bogaerts contract was one that’s not an overpay, and quickly? Glad he got his money, but not every team will be willing to do Padres things to get their man.
Sure, they lowball’d Pete, but it’s a starting off point. Boras as his agent and his infamy with extensions, why not start a market-rate offer at least to tell your fan base that you’ve made a valiant attempt? They’re wanting to pay him what better 1B (Freeman, Olson, Goldy) are or have been making. That being said, does Cohen think that Alonso forgot what he paid Lindor??
You cannot seriously compare an all around stud shortstop with a slugging, average fielding first basemen.
I imagine if Alonso wants to sign for 10 years he could get 200 million or close to it. But to compare it to a terrible contract like Bogaerts doesn’t make sense.
He isn’t getting near that. Bogaerts has been bad this year but time has shown giving players like Alonso a big deal is probably a bigger mistake. Chris Davis, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Miguel Cabrera, etc. I would say the differences are Freeman is very agile and sneaky athletic and Olson was a guy with a ton of potential who had mechanical problems at times and it was always apparent that if you could just help him learn what gets him into slumps and what he does right when he’s great, he’d be even better. And he was in Oakland also. All those other players were already peaked before their deals tho, just like Pete.
“Best Power hitters of this”….Just power alone is not as valuable as it used to be. Pete will likely take about 600+ ABs this year and 40 of them will result in homeruns. That leaves 540+ ABs and what he does with those is just as important as the homeruns. I remember just several years back Chris Carter(Either Oak or Hou)hit 48 bombs one year and then was looking for a job in Japan the next year.
I think it was Milwaukee.
Chris Carter shared the NL home run title in 2016 when he was with Milwaukee … and was non-tendered cos he also led the NL in strikeouts. Caught on with the Yankees in 2017 but hit only .201 and was released in June. Out of baseball at age 30.
“Shared the NL home run”…I guess you’re right and apparently it was 41 hr, not the 48 hrs I suggested in prior posts. I guess my baseball memory isn’t quite as good as it used to be.
“Led the NL in strikeouts”…I believe the Brewers were also afraid of how one-trick homerun hitters get MASSIVE raises in the outdated arbitration system. Take Vlade Guerrero Jr. for example, he had one HUGE homerun season a few yrs back and is now a $20M/yr player even though he’s been fairly average the last 2 years. In arbitration home run power is overvalued at the expense of all around baseball skills and athleticism.
That was an overpay but he benefitted from 2 things: he was a SS, and he was dealing with an owner who was dying and was trying to do everything in his power to win a WS before he passed. So it’s not a fair comp for Pete.
Yeah I think the owner dying has to be considered with that. Remember the Padres tried to overpay lots of other guys that offseason Bogaerts was the guy who finally accepted their offer.
Regardless of the contract, is Xander the proper comp for this comparison? Matt Olson feels more appropriate (8-year/$168M) and is generally a low-average, high-power 1B like Alonso. There’s always Paul Goldschmidt (5-year/$130M extension) and Freddie Freeman (6-year/$162M). Aside from Olson’s extra year, his AAV is $21M, whereas Alonso turned down $22.5M AAV. It seemed like a deal that was reasonable for both sides.
Goldy signed an extension, he was not a FA, and was 3 years older than Alonso when he signed it.
Olson was not a FA, The Braves bought out 2 of his arbitration years.
Freeman was 2 years older than Alonso. His AAV is a VERY good comparable to what Alonso will get. Alonso will just get 1-2 more years.
People looking at WAR are missing the boat. Defense plays almost no part in FA contracts for 1B. Look at the history of 1B contracts. There is little difference between the best gloves and the middle of the road like Alonso if the offense is the same. It’s all about hitting at 1B.
Websoulsurfer with another inflated Boras client prediction.
Will he continue to say it’s great when he gets a pillow deal with an opt out like Snell and Belli?
At the time of their contracts, Freddie and Goldie hit for a significantly higher batting average and OBP than Pete.
At the time of his signing Freeman had exactly the same OPS+ as Petey has had over the past 3 seasons.
“Exactly the same OPS+ as Petey”….Apparently OPS+ ignores the HUGE difference in their(Pete & F.F)non hitting, all around baseball skills. In reality, if you add baserunning, speed & defense together they’re just as important as a player’s hitting offense in my opinion. I have no idea how OPS+ is calculated but it doesn’t sound like an accurate measure of a player’s all around baseball skill.
At the exact time of his signing Freeman had won a World Series.
How can you criticize OPS+ when by your own admission you have no idea how it’s calculated? You’re essentially saying “I have no idea what I’m talking about, but it feels like this stat I don’t understand isn’t actually all that useful” and expecting people to not see that as laughably stupid.
What he’s saying is, “my personal opinion of a player is more accurate than a scientific measurement.”
“My personal opinion”…That F.F is substantially better all around than Pete is EVERYONE’S opinion I’ve seen on this page, it’s not really “my” opinion. Anyone with eyes knows Pete is below average defensely, slow and lacks athleticism. You don’t need a “baseball for dummies” simplified analytics number to see that. And why don’t you enlighten us on how OPS+ is calculated and relevant, genius?
He’s a shortstop. Pete’s 1B only player. Huge difference, mate.
All that power to only average 3.9WAR/season.
Citing one bad contract to justify another one sounds like an agent. Is that you Scott? Seriously the Bogaerts deal is terrible but he’s got more positional value and a broader overall game. Only the Mets will offer him that many years because he’s a fan favorite. On the open market 4 years and maybe a vesting 5th year, tops.
Xander at the time he became a free agent was a better overall player than Alonso. Xander was worth the 25m aav but the 11 years is insane.
Xander right now has one of the worse contracts in the majors. If the padres wanted to trade him right now they would likely have to eat 100-150m of his contract.
Then you add in the issue with tv money for many teams being a major question mark I don’t think there will be a big market for Alonso. He will be 30 and I think teams would be fine with a 5/125m deal but he likely wants much more. I can see boras asking for the moon and the stars which causes Alonso to sit waiting for months before he signs. If he waits too long I think it’s very possible he doesn’t even sign for 125m in total value.
The padres handed out huge long term deals to players like manny and Xander. These deals are not likely to age well at all. If either of these two were free agents right now specially with Peter gone neither would come close to getting this much money. I don’t see the Mets or any other team doing a bad deal like the padres did.
Simm2 hours ago
Xander at the time he became a free agent was a better overall player than Alonso. Xander was worth the 25m aav but the 11 years is insane.
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Xander was questionable even at the time. Just closing your eyes, and focusing just on the 15 HRs, a 118/57 K/W, and a mediocre SS glove, is good, but hardly elite.
And the AAV & 11 years are linked. It was really a $35M x 8 contract, spread out over 11 years.
That works if Alonso can find a terminally ill owner willing to break the bank before he kicks the bucket. I don’t see any more of those in MLB.
Pointing to XB’s contract is kind of ridiculous. It was given to him by a dying owner, desperate to win. XB has already been pulled off SS in the 2nd year of the deal. Please, point to a contract that was successful for the team as well as the player if that’s what your basing the ask on. The moment you bring up a mistake contract, you’re giving an example of why I should not pay you that much! Why not just compare Alonso to Chris Davis?
Bogaerts was robbery. The Padres got Borassed. Good point.
Seems like a lowball offer, he’s been a part of doubling or tripling the value of the franchise. Cohen shouldn’t try and recoup his overpayment by squeezing Pete here. His value is certainly beyond the on field product, especially in a market like NYC.
It’s hardly a lowball offer when you look at the comps mentioned in the article. He could definitely end up getting more than that, but even if he does it likely won’t be by a large enough margin to immediately reject what the Mets offered. He’s a very good player but probably not the type that teams would (or should) be lining up to give $200+ million to.
You’re also betting on Boras having a better offseason than last year or hoping that the Mets are bidding against themselves to bring him back. I agree that he has value beyond his on-field ability, but the Mets aren’t paying him to be popular, and if he stops hitting then that popularity would disappear anyway. He’s a defensively limited right handed hitter, so if he stops hitting he pretty much has no value.
@Michael Chaney Things is, Pete *doesn’t* have value beyond his on-field ability if he’s not the Alonso of 2019, 2021, and 2022—and he’ll probably never be that guy again.
People got tired of Kingman;’s PA quickly, and Pete’s no novelty act. Who came to the park to see Adam Dunn’s decline phase, or bought Dunn’s jersey? His teams couldn’t build a season ticket campaign around him. He was just another guy who used to be fun to watch at the plate.
What value does he bring outside of his on field ability?
@blackpink
Advertisements, Season ticket purchases, regular ticket purchases, public relations such as charitable and team sponsored events and promotions, knowledge to players being brought up and the list goes on. .
Same type of things players benefit from outside of ticket purchases usually through licensed agents like Boras. Surprised you dont know this you claim to know so much about the subject of agents and mlb and off field things. .
None of that is unique to Alonso. Teams have players making league minimum who do all that stuff you just mentioned.
The guy is a weirdo. He tossed Masyn Winns first hit into the stands. Why? Because he’s a weirdo. Tried to explain why he did it later didn’t make sense then or when he did it.
so what your saying is people are buying tickets to go see for Omar Navaez? Tomas Nido? Joey Wendle?
ESPN is putting Zack Short on the espn match ups? Watch the Mets and Grant Hartwig take on Emmanuel Rivera and the Marlins? Hmm doesnt seem to have the same ring as if you have Alonso and say Chisolm or Josh Bell.
Regarding Winn and Alonso, he checked with the pitcher and with the ump and they both said no so he threw it into the stands for the fans. Why didnt they say anything are they weirdos too? Did you even see how it went down? Get facts not anecdotes and popular media.
Im guessing you are saying Harrison Bader is a weirdo too as he did the same with Bobby Witt Jr first homerun who was a bigger name prospect too and it ended up in a fountain.
People buy tickets because they live nearby and they support their local team. They are fans because their parents and family are fans. They like to go out and have a good time at the ballpark.
Alonso didn’t check with anyone. And like I said why would he throw it into the stands? It wasn’t the last out of the inning. The 1b NEVER throws the ball into the stands unless it’s the last out of the inning. So why did he do it that time? You can’t explain thst and neither could Alonso.
I have no idea what you are talking about with Bader. A home run is different not the same thing at all.
Alonso will be the ONLY decent 1B on the market and he is the best power hitter in baseball right now.
If it is to just go out and have a good time why dont they go to minor league games as it is closer and cheaper and is actually local. If you go to the actual stadium i guarantee you there are just as many NJ plates as NY plates in the full stadium parking lot so it is most definitely not local.
For most going to a game is literally a mini vacation with the cost for tickets potential travel and any concession. but here is an easy question even you could answer, if i were to offer you an autographed ball from Alonso or one from Zack Short which one are you taking?
Also every dead ball they throw into the stands for a fan 1 out no outs 3 outs. Does the camera show it every time no because the pitcher has already gotten a ball back from the ump. Look at the actual video. You wont. The pitcher shook him off so he sent it to the stands for a cards fan as a souvenir.
Why no mention of the bader one? It was for a bigger event and bigger name.
The 1b NEVER throws the ball into the stands unless it’s the last out of the inning. I have attended over 300 baseball games in my life and watched thousands of games. They NEVER throw the ball into the stands unless it’s the last out of the inning. You have no idea what you are talking about.
Let me see the tickets of going to 300 games … you wont
If you actually went to a game you will see they do toss them into the crowds if the pitcher doesnt want it back regardless of out and if there is netting. Which is the reason he launched it is to get over said netting.
Dude I am 43 years old I have absolutely went to 300 games in my life. Went to 30 games back in 2011 when the Cardinals won it all that was the peak of my fandom.
They NEVER toss the ball into the stands on a base hit unless it’s the last out of the inning. That’s a fact I have no clue why you think otherwise. It has nothing to do with what the pitcher wants they just don’t do that.
“They NEVER toss the ball into the stands on a base hit unless it’s the last out of the inning. That’s a fact I have no clue why you think otherwise. It has nothing to do with what the pitcher wants they just don’t do that.”
since when are base hits last outs? those are fielders choices. and not a hit.
Im 42 and went to a few hundred games myself minor and major league and even an independent league game. Minor leagues being the best bang for the buck usually as ive never had a bad time. Daniel Murphy still my favorite met and had to see him when he played for the ducks.
How do i know because simple fact is I got one from him when he played 1b. Was not last out btw. Once the play is considered dead ie the runner is resetting usually after running far over the base without turning and the pitcher wants a new ball. They throw it in the stands, Maybe you been unlucky who knows or maybe nosebleeds you cant see it.
Still waiting on the proof of these said games you went to.
Won’t stop a GM from a Winn-Winn contract
If it’s a foul ball they might throw it into the stands. If it’s a fair ball like this was they never do. That’s a fact it’s not an opinion. My guess is you got a foul ball.
“People are buying tickets to go see Omar Narvarez”…The Mets don’t really often draw large crowds in Queens. They draw about half of what the Dodgers or Padres draw on a slow day. Ticket sales is not a particularly strong argument, when you’re talking about signing a Pete Alonso. Matt Harvey(In his “Harvey day” prime) reportedly sold an extra 6000+ tickets on his pitching days, but I believe with Alonso it’s only really a few hundred extra tickets sold, based on the smaller crowds attending games.
Wasn’t Matt Chapman the ONLY 3B on the market???!??!!?
Keep going!
If you actually paid attention to the video the entire time the Cardinals dugout is yelling for the ball. He was being a complete loser.
You know, I’ve watched a lot of games in person and several hundreds more on SNY and other regional networks. I have seldom seen a ball tossed into the stands unless it was the third out — or the fielder thought it was the third out. Or it was a foul ball and the fielder was on top of the stands. I have seen balls rolled out of play — for later use in the gift shop as “game used” balls. A ball that was someone’s significant hit generally goes into the dugout or close by to be authenticated.
Even if it wasn’t Winns first hit the 1b wouldn’t have thrown it into the stands. They simply don’t do that. I don’t know if they arentold not to or why it is but they don’t do it.
Actually he’s 14th in home runs so far this year but nice try
‘If it’s a foul ball they might throw it into the stands. If it’s a fair ball like this was they never do. That’s a fact it’s not an opinion. My guess is you got a foul ball.”
If its a fact you can definitely prove it hence being a fact. but the fact i got one from during a fair play ball along with alonso throw into the stands proves it is not a fact. Also i remember that game i got the ball because freaking mike stanton hit a grand slam in the 9th that got the marlins the win and ruined what would have been my best game ever.
also your :facts” are highly suspect as you changed your facts pretty regularly saying alonso never checked with anyone and just a couple comments below you said he checked in. Plus other comments where you change your story in other articles. .
You are full of it. You don’t want to admit you are wrong so you are making it up as you go.
“Seems like a lowball offer”…Suggesting Pete TRIPLED(or doubled) the value of the Mets is one of the most ridiculous things I’ve heard in a while. How do you triple the value of a franchise while winning no WS or even Pennants under Pete Alonso?…Ohtani probably increases the value of a franchise maybe 25% and Pete doesn’t even move the needle in that respect. I could see Pete selling 300-400 extra daily tickets though, which with the small(to medium size)Queens crowds really doesn’t affect the value of the Mets in any meaningful way. I can’t even see guaranteeing Pete any more than $100M, maybe over 6 years.
You’re right, tripling the value is an overstatement, and doubling it already is not correct.
In 2019 the Mets were worth 2.1 Billion according to Forbes and in 2024 they are valued at an even 3 Billion. In five years Pete has raised the franchise value by 33% or 1 Billion dollars. If the Mets continue this trajectory and are worth 4.2 Billion (or more!) in 2029 Pete will have doubled the value of the franchise in 10 years and he will have been worth way more than 20 million per year.
Pete Alonso didn’t do that. He isn’t responsible for that.
You can’t actually be this dumb.
“In five years Pete has raised the franchise value by 33%”. You’re clearly smoking something that’s most likely illegal. The last time I checked, Pete wasn’t the only player on the Mets and isn’t solely responsible for their franchise evaluation. The price of gas and groceries are SKYROCKETING, increasing about 35% in the last few years; do you give Pete Alonso credit for all of that too?
It doesn’t work like that. He’s a fun player and the fans like him. He’s nowhere close to a transformative talent. When he goes all Luke Voit in about 3 years the fans will crucify him. The Mets and every team are “gaining value” because our money is going to hell.
The idea that players sell tickets is something Boras wants you to believe. Ohtani is a rare case now however in LA without Ohtani they still draw huge crowds. When a big free agent is signed there is a curiosity factor and they can sell more tickets. For a short time. Big FA signings are not uncommon.
Tickets sales are down in LA. By 1500 per game.
Teams that don’t have Alonso have seen their value rise similarly. I wouldn’t attribute that to him. Ohtani just left the Angels. I haven’t heard a peep about the value of the franchise dropping when he left. In fact, most teams do sell offs of their big contracts before selling to make it more appealing to the buyer.
These DH/1B need to look in the mirror;.
Boras and his act is tired and old.
Goldschmidt got 130 million for 5 years from ages 32 through 36. I don’t know who’s a better player it’s probably pretty close.
Alonso could replace Goldschmidt in St Louis but Boras is a problem and that thing where he threw Masyn Winns ball from his first hit into the stands was weird. Not sure if everyone remembers that but it was strange the whole thing. I don’t think that’s a guy I would want as the face of the franchise.
Yeah, I saw something about that, but I have to admit I kind of skimmed it. So he knew it was the kids’ first hit in MLB, and he did that because….why? I was assuming he didn’t know and was just giving a ball to a fan.
It was weird. He grabbed the ball kind of showed it to everyone around and then threw it in the stands. And then he was asked about it later and he had some weird excuse. I had no personal feelings about Alonso one way or another before that happened but it was weird. I don’t understand what he was thinking. A 1b doesn’t throw the ball in the stands like that on a normal hit so why did he do it that time?
Alonso is Australian. I think that explains everything.
@Blackpink
You’re embellishing details that didn’t happen. He simply didn’t know it was Wynn’s first big league hit. There was no antics. He made mistake and felt rather bad about it. Pete Alonso is a very stand up guy, a very decent person. I watched that game when it aired live. I saw what happened. He wasn’t playing the headgames that you imply. during and after the game.
“With a few exceptions”, such as all of his 2024 clients.
Pete’s a one tool first baseman. Coming up with a comp is often distorting the facts that every case & market is different. At least Olson has a good glove, walks more, and hits more doubles. All Pete does is hit homers. I’m not even gonna compare him to Freeman. Would Kyle Schawrber get 150m? It doesn’t hurt that Olson and Freeman are truly standup guys. I’m not saying Pete isn’t but some have. Bottom line is if you bet on yourself you gotta perform.
There is atleast one comp i can think of is Ryan Howard.
I want to say Chris Carter was another but i dont know if he hit homeruns at a 40 hr but was a hard hitter and was close.
I would say Pujols with the angels at the same age is another but he was an average fielder at 1b but also had more years in the league than alonso but the dollars and age lineup and most will say that was a mistake deal.
Chris Carter was the X-Files guy.
I think we can guarantee he does not get $158 million in FA.
I disagree. I think it’s a fair offer. But he probably won’t get more so why not sign with the team you say you love?
depending on the years, i would say 150 – 160 is very possible. 20M for 8 years i think he can get to. Personally I think it would be a mistake but i can see a team doing that very easily especially if deferred money is involved. Especially for someone that loses out on Soto like either one of the new york teams as torres rizzo soto and alonso are all thumpers and have name recognition. Cant remember if verdugo is a thumper i think he is more a contact guy.
@Roll If Pete doesn’t get moving, fast, by the time FA rolls around he’ll just be one more guy who used to be good.
I think that as long as he puts up 40 HR this season and puts up an OPS+/wRC+ equal or greater than last season then we can guarantee he gets more than $158 million.
I dont disagree with you but that is a lot to ask as he seems to not be hitting well for an extended time back to last season and. he needs to up the average a good amount to get to an ops of that level.
What makes it even tougher is you had someone that was the 2nd best hitter with versatility of CF and 1b with playing better defense at 1b. While he is not a big homerun hitter was better almost everywhere else not getting that number. Think Soto this year being the Ohtani for best hitter. .
I think it will be hard regardless to get there as teams are not handing out crazy years and dollars in general except for generational top players. While alonso is very good he is not that tier i believe especially as i believe in about 3 or 4 years he will be down to a dh type role with occasional 1b. Those roles tend to get high aav short years over the last few years. I very well can see 20-25 a year 4-6 years with obviously the more years the less AAV dollars.
There’s a few things that stand out beyond increasing age with Alonso…
Teams are throwing fewer four-seamers and changeups at him, and, he’s facing the more cutters and sinkers.
At the same time, he’s been getting fewer line drives, more ground balls, and although his barrels and fly-balls are consistent he’s had a spike in infield fly balls. All while hits up the middle have shifted towards more opposite field hits from a guy who has always been a pull-dominant hitter.
I think all of that is enough to account for his BA/OBP drop, which when you look at his RAA outcome projection on the sinkers and cutters, those are two of his worse pitches to hit behind the sliders which teams continue to throw at him at an equally high rate.
Unless he can adjust to pick up and hit those two pitches better, I’m not confident his on base numbers will improve. And although sliders have never been his best pitch to hit, he’s been particularly bad against them so far this season
Blessing in disguise. Alonso’s not even worth 158mil
Another boras success story lol
“Pete’s a one tool”..Scott Boras screwed Michael Conforto over, by encouraging him to decline a very generous $150M Met’s offer(a few years back) and now he’s doing the same to a very naive Pete Alonso. Good luck Pete and bring lots of warm clothing, because Colorado gets very cold in the winter, as Kris Bryant found out.
I think he’s actually a pretty good fit in Colorado.
I can’t imagine the number of HR Alonso would hit in w/half his games in Colorado. 80? 90?
55-60 would be realistic.
Alonso has played 12 games in Colorado. In those 12 games, he’s had 52 PA, 49 AB (1 BB, 2 HBP)… out of those opportunities, he hit 4 HRs.
Depending how you prefer to look at it, that rate means 1 hr every 3 games, or, 27 hrs in COL per year, or, 4hr per ~50 AB, meaning if roughly half his expected ABs, call it 325, again you get to… 27 hrs in COL per year. Surprisingly consistent whether per game or per AB.
Alonso usually hits more HRs on the road than at home, I haven’t dug into all his seasons but I do know it was recently about a 60/40 split, where he hit 25 on the road the other year.
So, I’d be conformable saying he’s probably a 50hr hitter with that number decreasing as he ages for COL, maybe 55, but not likely much more – but we are talking small samples so you never know.
Bryant doesn’t live in Colorado in the offseason.
You want 40/50 homers with a 200-220 BA this is the guy. I think he could have a 250 or 260 season but I don’t know about consistently.
He will look good In cubby blue In 2025
Tommy R will show the Baseball world when It comes to put up cash.
Nobody will beat Tommy R & Jed Hoyer
I sure as hell hope this is sarcasm.
Sure, I would agree with that. At least he plays a position. But from a production standpoint, they’re somewhat similar.
That’s a hard pass on the Cubs signing Pete Alonso. No thanks.
Dude should’ve taken it, he isn’t doing better than that on the open market
Wow Mets got lucky he turned that down
Is it just me or does anyone else view Pete as a slightly better version of Kyle scwarber
I think your analogy is spot on. Is there much of a difference between a .190 hitter w/40 HR or a .220 hitter with 40? No. Alonso does fill the 1B spot and is not as bad a fielder as some would say. He seems an affable personality, however, setting the Wynn episode aside. I could see him thriving in terms of supplemental income if he stays. I think somewhere near 6/$150M is about where he ends up.
.250/.338/.513/.851 and 134 OPS+. Those are Alonso’s numbers over the past 3 seasons.
Schwarber was the worst defensive LF in MLB history at a -40 DRS and is now relegated to DH only.
Alonso is a roughly league average 1B at a +3 DRS on defense.
Or, since the start of 2023 Alonso has been a .219/.315/.493/.808 hitter.
While DRS pegs him at +3 DRS for his mlb career, hes also saddled with a UZR of -4
2, an OAA of -17, and a FRV of -13 over that same time.
It’s all a question of what numbers you like.
The one thing we can all probably agree on is that whoever signs him to a lengthy contract will be buying 2-3x more declining years as they will years of production similar to the last couple.
@Fred2023 If Pete has a second year in a row of significant decline, which is where he’s headed after 1/3 of a season, 6/$150 will remain in his dreams.
Say he drops to 2.0 fWAR in 2024 after a 2.9 in 2023 and 3.8 in 2022, and turned 30 in 2025. 6/$150 would be madness, even for the Angels. It’s more like, will he get 4/100m?
And if he does, why? The acquiring team isn’t even getting his decline phase.
Schwarber has a higher OBP.
2022; Led the NL in home runs AND strikeouts.
2023: Led the NL in strikeouts AND had a batting avg. under the Mendoza Line.
2024: Leading the NL in strikeouts going into the weekend.
Schwarber would’ve been out of baseball by now if his M.O. wasn’t “me swing big stick, me crush home run”.
“Better version of Kyle Schwarber”…I was going to say that earlier, but was afraid I’d be tarred & feathered and body-checked out of town. It’s a good comparison but did Pete Alonso really score 100+ runs, drive in 100+ runs and hit 47 bombs like Kyle Schwarber?
Alonso is comparable to Schwarber. I think he gets 6 years 120 mil. I wouldn’t offer him a penny more than that. Comparable players like Freeman, Olson, and GoldSchmidt (when he was Alonso age) are much better than him. He doesnt deserve to get paid more than those guys I listed
I think somewhere near 6/$150M is about where he ends up, although perhaps Colorado hasn’t learned from the Kris Bryant mess or Chicago from their Jason Hayward situation. While Alonso’s no Freeman or Goldschmidt, he’s a useful commodity for NY. He’s also comparatively young w/o a true replacement in the system until Ventios proves he can hit .220+ and bombs consistently — or the second guy from Houston starts hitting and gets to AAA w/a projection of production similar to PA.
You are comparable to Bob Dobbs.
What or who is Bob Dobbs? If that was a shot, I missed it.
That is hilarious and it will go over the heads of 98% of the people on here. Especially those that don’t know how to use Google.
Another mets failure
Should have traded pete last deadline
Or offseason. Could have acquired solid prospect
Half season of 220 hitter wont net much. mets might get a 6 pack of bud light in a trade at this point
Wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Nats make a play for him – fills a huge position of need that’s just not there in our farm. Tons of money off the books after this year and it fits the next window. Christian Walker is one of my favorite targets this offseason but I would love to see Pete in DC too
Boras lost Montgomery and gained Alonso in the offseason. Boras wins again.
So Montgomery can learn from a mistake in chosen representation and move on. Alonso should have had his former rep do the best he could have and sign. 158m is too much to risk. Doubt he sees much more and very likely less.
Best comparable on AAV is Freeman. If Petey puts up 40+ HR and an OPS+ equal to last season that he how much he will be paid. $158 million was a low ball offer when he had no other options. This offseason he will have multiple suitors including one crosstown in the Bronx. Will you cry when he gets paid?
Alonso reminds me a lot of Ryan Howard. Obviously that’s not a comp Boras would want to use but that’s who he reminds me of.
Some comparisons can be made to Chris Davis as well.
He ends up closer to 5/125.
I don’t think Alonso gets more than the 7yr and 158 million in one deal, and I think it’s the length of the contract that’ll be the issue for a guy with one exceptional skill. I agree, if he takes a shorter deal, I think he’ll do a lot better on the AAV. I’d say maybe as high as 4yrs at 110m. If his power holds up, he could make another trip into free agency at that point and probably still fetch 20m a year. It’ll take luck and two deals to beat the Mets offer, however.
Hmmm….not exactly having a free agent breakout year like Sotos having. I’m guessing that he’ll take a slightly higher deal if the Mets offer it.
I think you’re right. I think Cohen’s comments about seeing what Alonso’s market is will have them re-signing him at somewhere near 160 or so……unless someone really goes crazy for him.
I think so too. 7/175 probably keeps him in a Mets uniform.
Pete’s two year decline phase is turning him into someone barely acceptable in an MLB lineup, and you think the Mets will RAISE their offer?
Hoo boy, dumb move on Alonso’s part. No way he’ll get better than that in free agency. Guys like him tend to fall apart the fastest once they hit their 30s.
Pete looks like he began falling apart after age 27.
If people get this OhGodTehHRzzzz!!!! out of their heads, he’s barely even CJ Cron when Cron was 31 and 32.
Right now Alonso is not hitting up to his career averages, although he is on pace for 40 HR.
Olson was not a FA when he went into FA so his deal cannot be used as a comparable. Players with team control never get as much as FA. The FA with similar stats and age typically gets around 20% more. Alonso is a year older now than Olson was when he signed his deal which could affect the length of the deal but not AAV. In the 3 full seasons coming into his deal with Atlanta Olson had an OPS+ very similar to Alonso and Freeman.
Freeman was 2 years older than Alonso will be when he signed with the Dodgers and had averaged 10 less HR per season than Alonso has. Minus 2020 which is an outlier for every player, their OPS+ is almost identical for the 3 full seasons heading into FA.
Defense has historically not played an appreciable part in the size of contracts for 1B.
So Alonso will get more AAV than Olson because he is a FA and than Freeman because of power and age. How much more is the question.
Due to the dearth of 1B with power on the market and Alonso being the only player to have averaged 40+ HR over the past 3 seasons, I am going to go with an AAV of $25 million and 7 years. So 7/175.
Boras is going to ask for 8 years. He might get it since there are really no even halfway decent 1B on the market. That would take the final deal into the $200 million range.
Freeman is point blank better than Alonso. But I think Freeman took a little less money than he could have got in order to play for the Dodgers.
7 years 175 sounds about right to me. Probably end up being a bad investment for whatever team that signs him but most free agent contracts end up like that.
I agree that defense at 1B probably isn’t weighted very heavily in terms of earnings for a first baseman, but I think in today’s game it’s considered. If a guy is below average in the field before 30, he’s probably a full-time DH by the time he’s early to mid thirties. Teams seem like they value flexibility more at the DH spot now, and don’t want to lock one player in.
Petey is average or slightly above average on defense.
Should have taken the money. Free agency is generally unkind to bat-first 1B/DH types and while he isn’t 30 yet he will be when he hits free agency
He’s also not having a break out free agent season like Soto, so that’s not helping Pete.
Pete Alonso’s FA feels similar to Chris Davis where his value lies in being a fan favorite to the team. I don’t see how you look at his numbers over the past 14 months and say “yeah I’m going to go 6+ years at 25mm+”. I’d love for the Mets to keep him obviously, but seems more like a luxury at 1B when his power will likely continue to decline.
All that said, I will still be happy no matter the contract if they resign him.
Sad thing is, you’re going to hate watching Pete’s collapse and seeing the Mets DFA him when he’s 33.
This was the deal the Mets needed to give Alonso when Cohen first bought the Mets but the powers that be were nowhere to be found. How short sighted they were.
Yes, locking up his decline phase and collapse would have been a genius move.
Mets should trade him. As soon as he locks in the big money, his production will fall off, and he’ll need trips to the IL for hangnails.
The Mets have a lot of young hitters in the minors with not enough positions. I noticed they moved Ryan Clifford to 1st base. They drafted a ton of SS in the past few drafts for their athleticism.
It’s also possible they move Alvarez to 1st because I do not see how he is ever going to improve that paltry CS rate of 12%
Chris Davis 2.0
Alonso doesn’t strikeout a concerning rate like Davis. He could get $25MM a year if he wants to go 5-6 years. Don’t think he gets that for any longer of a contract and I’d be shocked if he got more than 7.
Id bet anything that’s it’s from the Mets though. Might be the exact deal he turned down originally. (won’t surprise me if he winds up with less either.)
Either way, I wouldn’t want my team to shell it out. He doesn’t strike out an alarming rate and he should continue to have power in his mid 30’s but he also doesn’t have a plus hit tool.
But I think Christian Walker could be a much better bargain on a 2 year deal. Much like Rhys Hoskins currently. (Who is playing just as well as Alonso)
Hoskins was coming off a major injury. Walker has been healthy. Why would Alonso be worth a 7 year contract, but Walker only 2 years? If you think having played for the Mets adds that much value, talk to Conforto.
He’s gonna want the 10/300 deal no doubt. My Guess, probably 8/200
Too much. Mets offer was completely fair. I hope he gets less.
Why would you hope he gets less. I want the players I pay to watch play paid as much as they can get. What kind of lowlife hopes a player gets less than the absolute maximum the market will bear?
I hope he gets the maximum the market will bear, and I hope that market realizes that he’s not worth more than he’s already been offered. Should I feel sorry if he only gets $20MM per from the market?
Freeman is a much better overall player and hitter and Olson is a better fielder and has comparable power and a better OBP. Boras is going to bomb in this contract just like he’s bombed on a lot of his recent star signings. I love Pete and hope he stays with the Mets forever but both of those guys are much better players and Pete seems to be in decline.
He’s been declining since his juiced ball first year.
The 3 seasons prior to FA they have had the same OPS+ and wRC+. Freeman was not a better hitter than Petey.
If any teams gives him more then 4 guaranteed they’d need their head examined. He’s a shittier version of Ryan Howard
That’s a lot of cash for an aging 1B man. They aren’t like wine and age well over time. Good for the Mets that he didn’t accept it.
Maybe he wants change in scenery and culture. I hope he stays in Queens, but after the disaster that happened in Miami today, let’s see how he reacts after that, it must be tough being a Met right now.
My guess is 5 year $100-$110 contract. About all a HR hitter with average at best defense 1B with average OBP and probably below average base running is worth
Also not much count in a scuffle. He let a 5’8””
Older coach take him to the ground like he was a rag doll
Snell, Montgomery, Chapman and now Alonso, the next chapter of the Boras promise to a long and disappointing FA.
Also Bellinger
Oops. Zero chance he gets 158 million in free agency.
Who’s going to pay more ? C U.
What players don’t realize is Scott Boras is more concerned with lining his own pockets over the fact that the players can sign somewhere and build chemistry with his team.
Dumb post.
Looking like a huge mistake not manipulating his service time when he first came up.
He’s paying back the Mets good deed by asking for a ridiculous contract. Nice Pete.
@LFGSD619 that was Brodie Van Lunchwagon I believe?
Doesn’t want to be a Met.
Chris Davis
Pete messed up, I see a one year contract in his future, towards the end of spring training next year, probably a player option for a second year, boras will focus his attention on soto. Poor Pete is the side piece
He probably should have taken it.
You also have to consider the New York tax. It’s more expensive to live in New York than anywhere else outside of California. Plus inflation has gone up since the other two signed deals. It doesn’t help when your agent is Scott Boras. So it’s not the same. Boras is probably looking at a number closer to $28 million a year than $22.5 million a year. It’s a risk leaving that much money on the table for sure. Who was it Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell both fired Boras because he rejected higher value contracts and they had to settle for way less on a short term contract? I can see the same thing happening.
Florida and Texas ain’t exactly paradise these days. High home insurance in one state, rising property taxes in the other.
At least there’s no income tax in Florida. Definitely the better spot.
Texas doesn’t have state income tax either.
Baseball player salaries do not, have not ever followed general inflation numbers. Nor do they stagnate during zero inflation times.
Pete should have took the extension.
Either that or he should have taken it
Pete will resign a fair deal with the Mets. As for his defense…average defensively? Looks pretty damn above average when I’m watching.
Have you watched all 30 shortstops a lot and compared to him? How do you know he is above average?
1-No more comparisons to Chris Davis. He had nowhere near the consistency of Alonso, and I suspect used PEDs when needed.
2-There is a chance that some of the cable money won’t be decided. That will discourage the market.
3-In the end, 28 teams off him $100M/5, SD offers $120M/6 ti play SS, and the Rox get their guy for $175M/7.
Joe, it’s the same old story with me – toss 2020 for all players as it was too screwy to be a predictor.
So, we’re left with 3 decent seasons, 1 non-considered small sample, and one for sure red flag season with the makings of a second. Right now he’s starting to have a batting profile like atlanta years 31-33 year old Dan Uggla, and, that ended quick. And he had been pretty consistent for years too.
You can argue peak Alonso was better than peak Uggla for hr total/slugging, BUT, alonso was also getting those juiced baseballs that Uggla wasn’t. Could Uggla have popped an extra 10 hrs a year playing with the same baseballs as Alonso? And the change to hurling max effort instead of pitching?
I won’t say yes, but I won’t say no either.
Alonso needs to really pour it on to be worth the risk of a longer contract, never-mind one approaching similar value to what he turned down.
@Joe Brady
Chris Davis, 2012-2016 130 OPS+, 3.7 bWAR per 650 PA
Alonso 2020-2024 132 OPS+, 3.3 bWAR per 650 PA
Consistency is irrelevant. Look at the more valuable player—that’s Davis.
If you really want consistency Khris Davis is a lock compared to Alonso. Is that really what you want?
Chris Davis was a better fielder. We all know how that contract worked out.
I think he and Boras have an unrealistic valuation of him. A trip to free agency would need a monster year in terms of WAR, AVG and OPS.
I hear Dave Kingman is available.
Gotta Love KONG
Haha. Where is that idi0t Mets fan that said he would hit 60 homeruns this year?
He’ll easily find a fool of an owner to pay him at least that much in FA unless he craters or gets hurt for the rest of the season (see Michael Conforto). I don’t believe that a long term deal will age well on him.
I like the guy, but if I’m Cohen I take a hard pass on anything more than what he was offered. They can do better or the same as Pete in a couple of years for much less. In the meantime they can plug someone like Vientos into 1B until someone in the minors is ready.
Honestly, that’s a good deal for both and after seeing this offseason, I’d be concerned that he’ll get whatever he’s looking for that’s higher. My gut says he can get 180 for the same time period or at least the extra year. But regardless, this seemed fair
Quick war comps have him roughly on par with Harrison Bader and Brett Baty this year.
Buyer beware.
He’s 1 trick pony, shoulda taken that Mets offer as starting point n have agent try to bump em up a lil more but don’t believe he’ll see that kinda money in free agency. Times are changing n Freeman, Olsen, n Goldschmidt had more than 1 skill to offer plus Boras is kryptonite right now. That’s ALOTA money to turn your nose up@ n witnessing Boras’ performance for his clients last off-season shoulda been eye opener. Ask Snell, Chapman, n Montgomery bout their agents pipe dreams of untold hundreds of millions of dollars. The implosion of some teams TV deals will keep their purse strings tight n older, over-priced, all or nothing hitter is a luxury most won’t pursue.
That’s allllooot of seal meat for a pola baya
How’s Pete’s defense?
Boras: “He’s infield capable”
For the record, I’m also capable of playing (a very poor) first base.
His defense is almost as bad, if not worse than Luke Voit.
He will be primarily a DH sometime
He absolutely should have taken the extension
The Mets intentionally dodged a bullet. Very glad he didn’t take it..
The Mets gave Pete an offer that most fans wouldn’t take as an insult to him, and said they’d still be around in the 2024-2025 offseason and ‘strongly consider’ matching the highest offer.
They weren’t going to, of course, unless the offer was 5/125m, which still looks like it’ll be too high for a guy currently matching Baty and Marte’s value in 2024, and putting up just half of Bader’s value.
Alonso was a PR problem, not a baseball problem, as in…
“How do we offer a popular 30 yo 1Bman in steep decline enough to look like we want him back, but are exercising fiscal prudence given he’s asking at least 8/240m? In short, what can we offer that he definitely won’t take, so we can pull the offer and get off the hot seat?”
What a greedy piece of you know what
Lol dude dennis shroder’s himself
Alonso will regret this move. Maybe he’ll be offered a couple of bucks, not much more. However, he will have to go through hell and back to get it. He put his future in the hands of the baseball devil, Boros. Last FA season was an eye opener for many fans of the game to see once and for all how he cares about himself, #1 only! His clients best opportunities come secondary, the good of the game…. not ever looked at. The offer based on Olson’s contract. I like Alonso but who do you think is the more valuable all around first baseman? Although Alonso is more valuable to the Mets than any other team by far. Alonso/Boras need to look at other top notch 1Bs. They don’t make the % that they made a decade ago. All that being said if the Mets don’t overpay and lose him, it’ll be Midnight Massacre II!
Thank God he didn’t take it.Adios Pete.