To say Mason Miller's start to the season has the baseball world buzzing would be an understatement. The second-year A's hurler, whom Oakland selected with the No. 97 overall pick in 2021, has emphatically asserted himself into the conversation for baseball's top reliever. Standing at 6'5" and averaging a comical 101.3 mph on his heater, Miller is the quintessential power pitcher. He's burst out of the gates with a 2.05 ERA in 22 innings, going 9-for-9 in save opportunities and striking out an outrageous 51.9% of his opponents on the year. Eighty-one hitters have had the misfortune of facing Miller. Forty-two of them have gone down on strikes.
Miller allowed two runs in his first outing of the season and was just finally scored upon again yesterday, yielding three earned runs in 1 2/3 frames. Between those two appearances? The right-hander pitched 19 1/3 shutout innings with a 40-to-4 K/BB ratio, fanning an impossible 60.6% of his opponents.
Unsurprisingly, between his dominant performance and the current state of the Athletics, he was quickly speculated upon as a trade candidate -- despite entering the year with six full seasons of club control remaining. As one would expect, teams have inquired. And as you'd also imagine, the asking price is reported to be stratospheric. Miller is going to generate considerable buzz between now and the July 30 trade deadline. Given the massive amount of club control he has remaining, it's a stretch to call him a "likely" trade candidate, but it's a guarantee that teams are going to try. The big question will be how much Oakland will need to be offered to genuinely consider moving him.
Before we dive too far in, let's be clear: this is an exercise without a clear answer. There's no precedent for a pitcher -- or a player -- with this level of early-career dominance and a nearly full slate of six years of control even being available. That we're even talking about it underscores the current state of the A's: a rebuilding team in the midst of relocation whose rebuild has stalled because of nearly universal misses on returns for their top stars. If Oakland were competitive right now or at least seeing enough encouraging returns in the rebuild to think they could be a Wild Card club in 2025-26, this wouldn't even be as serious a topic of discussion.
That's not the world we live in, though. The A's have MLB's fourth-worst run differential and fifth-worst winning percentage. Their farm system ranks near the bottom of the league even after trading Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Murphy, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Lou Trivino, Sam Moll and more. The A's have painted themselves into a corner that's problematic enough that their juggernaut closer is already being floated as a trade candidate despite barely having a year of service time.
So maybe this is indeed an exercise in futility, but let's take a look at some of the most recent trades for big-name relievers and see what we can glean.
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Would love the Rangers to get him but I just don’t think there is enough good talent they can send in return.
Rangers should have sold high on their 2 overrated prospect hitters for a pitcher.Langford and Carter
What’s with you in your hate for Langford and Carter
Would Walcott, foscue, leiter, and rocker be good enough? Add Owen white?
One can tell Mason Miller has huge talents. However, A’s are being extremely careful with his arm. Oakland knows what they have and if the ultimate idea is to turn Miller into a full SP then the team’s plan clearly reflects those expectations. As to what the A’s can ask if they were to trade Miller well the sky is the limit. However, Billy Bean – believe me he is involved in the team’s operations still – and his top liutenant David Forst, will have to be “enticed” big time to pull the plug here…
Kotsay isn’t being careful. Last week he used Miller for two innings with a 5 run lead in the first game of a doubleheader. And yesterday Kotsay brought Miller into another non-save situation. Miller had to be removed after allowing 3 runs and now his availability is questionable for the weekend against the Astros.
Miller shouldn’t be a SP because literally every starting pitcher not named Nolan Ryan that throws over 100 mph gets killed by injuries
Teams don’t have to trade players just because the media says they should.
Miller is a great option for a team that feels they need to win this year and are in the position to do so. Obviously, depending on the return it could simply be prohibitive for any team.
But it’s also a big risk to expend important players to the future of the team for a notoriously volatile role, as evidenced by Edwin Diaz and Hader so far this season.
Agreed.. Because of the injury risk and the prohibitive cost to acquire him, a playoff level team with serious need, would seem to be the only real way a trade would make sense. The Cubs paid a high price for Chapman, but without him (in spite of Madden wearing him out), they don’t win that WS. It was worth it in that case. Could be with Mason..
Cubs get
Mason Miller
A’s gwt
Jefferson Rojas
Fernando Cruz
Haydn McGeary
Nazier Mule
Do the A’s laugh and hang up or is this overpay?
I can’t find Cruz and Mule on BTV, but the other two add up to 13M in trade value compared to Mason Miller’s 53. I’d imagine it’s nowhere close to enough, but that seems to be the A’s MO these days.
The a’s need another top prospect, how about Matt Shaw
Or make a different deal with PCA as a centerpiece
Pca is the cubs future CF. No way he gets dealt. That would be stupid. Especially when Bellinger has an opt out after this year and next year.
Not sure about Shaw. He’s projected to be called up no later than 2025. Morel has done very well at 3rd. After he had a few mishaps in the first 2 weeks of the season. Nico and Swanson will hold down SS and 2B for the foreseeable future. They have a flustercuck of OF prospects. I like Iam Happ but he never should’ve received a ntc with his extension. U can’t wait for Owen Caissie to get the call. He should be on the short list of untouchables. With Alcantara and Triantos as well.
I’m not sure what BTV is. Is that the trade generator site. Mostly used for fun?
Apparently they make you pay $25 a month just to do fun scenarios with trades. That’s seriously LAF.
It used to be free, but they started requiring payment a few weeks ago. You can just search for each player’s name in recent trades to see the value of each player according to their model. One fairly balanced trade proposed on the site was Mason Miller to the Cubs for Kevin Alcantara, Owen Cassie, and Moises Ballestros.
I think it’s $25 per year if I’m not mistaken, but yeah…
I could see Alcantara, Shaw, Ballesteros plus.. as a viable return. I seriously doubt Cassie gets traded.
A’s hang up and quickly block the Cub’s number,
The Cubs don’t need him and wouldn’t be dumb enough to offer all that anyway. That’s ridiculous for a guy they don’t need anyway.
I wasn’t really being serious. Daniel Palencia was throwing 102 in Iowa last night. So if he can get his command down and Porter Hodge can be anything like his ML debut. They definitely don’t need him. They need to call pca back up and play him everyday. Move Belli to 1B , Busch DH and pca in CF
I’m trying to figure out how you trade all that MLB talent, Draft at the top year after year and still have a horrible Farm System? How exactly do you accomplish that? All Fisher’s relatives must work in the scouting dept. for minimum wage I’m guessing.
Orioles get: mason miller
A’s get: Heston kjerstad, Kyle stowers, Connor norby
That is actually a trade that makes sense on both sides. The As are full of holes everywhere, so getting multiple MLB ready players makes sense as a return- and for the Os, they need a high leverage arm for the playoffs- long term he may move back to the rotation for them
I think the As ask for more- but there is plenty the Os can add without missing much- Armbruester is likely the best prospect pitcher they would add, but another 25 year old mlb ready arm (but clearly blocked and hehind povich and mcdermott).. Haskins and Cook are also talented and blocked players in the high minors (likely future bench guys) that will just never see the light of day for the Os. Mateo and Urias also are useful big league players the As may assign some value that the Os may throw in (no one in this paragraph is in the top 2 players in the deal from the Os- i think your original 3 would need to be there, but i could see it being Stowers, norby, Urias, Armbruester and Haskins since the As want basically a whole roster they can sub in right now with a ton of control)
Hoyer would laugh at you Jammer.
You never know what the A’s will do – but for me – the A’s laugh. Rojas is the only decent prospect the Cubs would be giving up. With the A’s having Max Muncy and Jacob Wilson already in the system – they don’t need another SS.
The A’s are looking to 2028 when their new ballpark should open in LV. With this in mind, they should prefer prospects a year or two away from MLB. With the Cubs having way too much middle infield talent in the minors – they can trade from a point of strength. This is why I’m not including Cassie or Alcantara.
A better trade would be for the Cubs to give up.
1. James Triantos
2. Angel Cepeda
3. Jaxon Wiggins
4. Moises Ballesteros
Triantos should be on that short list of untouchables for the cubs too.
And that’s a massive overpay for a pitcher with a lot of injury issues
The As should keep him. Just because they sort of suck now doesn’t mean other teams have free reign on their best young players
Miller is young, talented and CHEAP.
Exactly the type of Player they need to keep.
I don’t trust the A’s Front Office to get any Trade right, because their recent track record says otherwise.
the thinking they have so many needs- why not go out and get 5 players that are likely above average players with years of control.
Comment above that i think would be reasonable from the Os (and both sides may do) is literally kitchen sink from the Os- Norby,, Stowers Kjerstad, and maybe more of the blocked guys in AAA like Haskins, Cook and Armbruester for Miller. The Os plug a team need (high leverage arm) for basically what is likley 5 guys who should be in the bigs right now (with 3 of them having boarderline all star upside)- the As get better and would have a ton of team control there for the next 5-6 years
If they can fleece a contender for a package of serious, controllable talent, they should pull the trigger. This guy is a blown elbow away from them being left with squat.
Have the A’s indicated closer is his vocation? Thought he was a SP put in the pen on a pitch count to slow recover from an arm injury that happened last year. Anyway, if I were the A’s, I wouldn’t trade him. Orioles stuck with Grayson Rodriguez through lean times.
If Millers name is floated in trades, gm’s would get hung up on. Remember Jonathan India from last year? Off to a not so good start but he is supposed to be part of Cincinnati rebuild.
Not a ton. He is Joel Zumaya number 2. A great year and a half. Throwing that hard, and then boom arm falls off
“That we’re even talking about it underscores the current state of baseball”.
Fixed it for you guys.
This is why I hate baseball. The haves shopping at the have nots for their best player. I’m not an A’s fan but I am a fan of the Notyankees and watching this guy make the big bad Yankees look like little leaguers is why I love baseball.
Stop screwing it up for me. Yeesh.
Guys a ticking time bomb. Shut down last season and didn’t have surgery. Relievers are failed starters so by nature they’re inconsistent. If they were consistent they’d still be starting. The closer role is overrated. I would not give up a ton for this kid. So many red flags.
make a trade now. He blew a save the other day. Probably his arm is shutting down, or a pre-injury developing . A’s should grab a monster package before Mason goes down later this year.
Giants should be shopping for Miller’s instead of Pomerantz’s. Throw the farm Farhan. Casey Schmitt and Wisenhunt, Get it done Putila cause Farhan won’t.
A’s get: Steven Kolek, Ha-Seong-Kim, Kyle Higashioka and Donavan Solano.
Padres get: Mason Miller and Shea Langeliers.
What are your guys thoughts on this trade???
A’s laugh hysterically, yell no, hang up, and block the number.
Why on Earth would the Padres trade anything valuable for a worse closer than the one they already have?
Suarez- 0.73 ERA, 1.7 WAR, 16-SV
Miller- 1.96 ERA, 1.1 WAR, 10-SV
Please.
True, but the A’s barley even use miller. The Padres would have a sick 8,9 closers. When do you ever see somebody throwing 104mph and act like it’s nothing???
I’d consider subscribing if more of the paywalled articles were like this, focused on trade candidates or transactions, rather than Fangraphs knockoffs.