Orioles general manager Mike Elias informed the media today that both left-hander John Means and right-hander Tyler Wells will undergo elbow surgery. Each player will be undergoing ulnar collateral ligament repair, though it’s not known if either will be full Tommy John surgery or the internal brace alternative. In either case, both players are now set to miss the remainder of the season. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com was among those to relay the news on X.
It’s an unfortunate double blow to the Baltimore rotation depth. The news on Means is particularly heartbreaking as he just got back from a lengthy Tommy John layoff not too long ago. He went under the knife in April of 2022, missing the majority of that season and most of the following season as well.
He did return to the mound late in 2023 but felt renewed elbow soreness. He was left off the club’s playoff roster last year and the O’s then tried to slow-play his ramp-up here in 2024. He started the season on the injured list and was reinstated at the start of May, making four starts before landing back on the IL with a left forearm strain.
Now Means is set for yet another long rehabilitation period, which will include the remainder of this season and likely a decent chunk of 2025 as well. From 2019 to 2021, he was one of the few bright spots for the club during its rebuilding phase. He tossed 345 1/3 innings in those three years, one of which was shortened by the pandemic, with a 3.73 ERA. But due to the elbow issues, he’s only thrown 52 1/3 innings over the past three seasons and that number won’t be going up now.
In addition to giving Means another huge obstacle to overcome, this surgery has the chance to end his tenure with the Orioles. He will pass six years of major league service time by season’s end and is set for free agency this coming winter. At that time, he will be heading into his age-32 season with an uncertain health outlook after all the aforementioned elbow work. Perhaps he and the Orioles will work out a new contract to cover his rehab period, if both sides are interested, but he could also consider getting healthy again and before showcasing himself for other clubs.
Wells, 29, landed on the injured list in the middle of April due to elbow inflammation. It appears that the club didn’t find much success with whatever non-surgical options it was exploring over the past six weeks and ultimately decided that surgery was indeed necessary.
The righty has a 4.06 ERA with the O’s since the start of 2021, pitching both out of the rotation and out of the bullpen. He reached arbitration in the most recent offseason as a Super Two player and is making $1.9625MM this year. He would be in line for another pass through arbitration this winter but wouldn’t be able to get a big raise after missing the vast majority of the current campaign. It’s also possible the O’s decide to non-tender Wells, given his upcoming rehab, though he is also controllable through 2027 and is still optionable.
For the club, this will significantly weaken their rotation depth for the remainder of the year. They currently have a starting mix consisting of Corbin Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Cole Irvin and Albert Suárez, which is a solid group but one with question marks.
Bradish was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in February. He managed to return to the club and has pitched well through a few starts, though that was also the case for Means before his elbow issues returned. Suárez has a 1.53 ERA this year but it’s his first MLB season since 2017. Irvin has a 2.84 ERA but with a low strikeout rate of 17.6%.
Even without Means and Wells, reinforcements could be coming from within. Dean Kremer is on the injured list but isn’t expected to be out too much longer. Prospects Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott are both throwing well in Triple-A this year.
The club is 35-19 and comfortably in playoff position. Perhaps they will use the coming weeks and months to evaluate everyone in that group and see how things look in the middle of July, but it also seems fair to expect the O’s to be exploring the trade market for starting pitching this summer.
Two. Ouch. Sorry, Birds fans.
Not the kind of 2 for 1 deal you want
“No Whammies, no Whammies… stop!”
*Loud klaxon*
I just thought of that game show the other day lol.
It’s on in prime time on the Game Show Network right now.
I wonder where the guy who broke that show is these days?
The fellow who figured out the pattern died in 1999.
The host of the show, Peter Tomarken, died in 2006. He and his wife did volunteer medical flights for folks, and his engine failed on the way to pick someone up.
@dion
Dang that is tragic! RIP
I didn’t order this. Where’s the manager?
Elias is an idiot but he Means Well(s) Ahahaha!
He is most definitely not an idiot.
You most definitely did not see that joke.
You most definitely did not see its lameness.
manfred & mlb still do nothing, dont care, live in ignorant bliss.
teams need to do more to protect their players since mlb doesnt give a crap what happens to their players. they only care if roku gives them $ and if london and korea agree to host intl games. sweet lord what a f’in circus this great game has turned into
They are putting a gun to the players head?
Then don’t watch. Simple.
@bad
i dont
neither does a ton of ppl who used to love baseball
its why manfred is desperately looking for new fans in europe and asia and under the moon
I watch less baseball because of the extended playoff format. In trying to gain new fans they’re losing the long time loyal ones.
What’s wrong with the extending playoff format? It’s more baseball.
@joggin
100% correct
everyone who grew up with baseball cant even recognize the current game. the new rules, playoff format, drug users, gamblers, its an abomination
It devalues the regular season. Doesn’t really mean as much when more teams make it in anyways.
there’s 1 and ONLY ONE reason why playoffs are extended. money. cash. $. bling. coin. banknotes. bread. dough. bills. roll. bucks. brass. shekels. call it what you like. its ALL about money. and ratings. if ratings are good (which they’re not), then mlb gets more $ from roku and amazon and espn and apple. the more games, the more revenue, the more revenue sharing. the more gms a team has, the more $ they make, the more tickets they sell, the more hot dogs they stuff into your mouth. its all about MOOOOONNNNNNNEEEEEYYYYY. it has absolutely nothing to do whatsoever with baseball or competition or sports or fun or taking your kids to a ballgame. its about $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Joggin’George: Do you watch the NFL? They have 6 playoff teams. MLB having the same # & nearly the same playoff format should not “turn off” TRUE baseball fans. I don’t like some of the rule changes but some of them do actually make good sense.
As a follow up: Would you like to go back to the “old school” playoff system of yesteryear when you had 2 divisions in each league (NL EAST/WEST & AL EAST/WEST).
You don’t watch baseball but you are on this site commenting?? Hmmm….
@prospect
3 division winners + 1 wild card was a good format
It diminishes the quality of everything. In baseball, more than any sport, any team can win any game. 162 games for what? A slightly better seed?
Bucky Dent hits a homer vs the Sawx for… a slight home field advantage?…. It saps so much value… it cheapens things when everyone gets in
Layoff for top teams is too much, and there should be a greater disadvantage for the lower seeded teams. Season ends Sunday, games played Monday/Tuesday and if a team goes 2-0, they play the bye team on Wednesday. That gives the top teams enough rest (but not too much), and no rest for the lower seed.
Ridiculous comment and you should either self mute or flag yourself for 30 days.
Johnny utah, you really need to seek therapy and/or psych meds for your anger and other issues.
I agree. The regular season should mean something. You have each leagues division winners (1, 2, 3 seed)… then the wildcard should be 4 teams with the next best record in each league in a winner take all one game playoff. 4 vs 5 at noon… 6 vs 7 when they get done… then the two winners at night.
The winner of that goes to the 1 seed and play a 7 game series all on the road. If the wildcard team gets through that, then they can play the winner of the 2 vs 3 in a 2-3-2 format.
It gives teams incentive to keep winning instead of… “Well, I’m getting in as a wildcard at least.”.
Now it’s… “I want to have the best record in the league… I play a 7 game series at home against a team that just played a double header.”
“Well, if I don’t have the best record… at least I won the division and don’t have to go through that wildcard playoff.”
“If I can’t win the division… at least I need to be the 4 or 5 seed so I don’t have to play back to back games in the same day… I get a little rest between them.” “Well, if I can’t win the division and I just squeaked into the wildcard… at least I have a shot. Let’s go for it!”
To also help with teams trying to stop tanking… the draft order is determined by lottery for all teams that missed the playoffs and it’s based on BEST records of those teams… so the team that just missed out on the playoffs has the best chance of getting the number 1 pick. The team with the worst record has the lowest chance. So, the 16 teams that miss out on the playoffs get the top 16 picks, but they are all in a lottery and all have a chance at the number 1 pick. The playoff teams pick 17 through 30.
The NFL plays roughly 10% of the regular season games as baseball, making things TOTALLY DIFFERENT.
I was a baseball FANATIC for DECADES!
Yes, I feel that the extra playoffs DIMINISH the value of it all. First place suddenly means very little.
Imagine Bucky Dent’s homer vs the Red Sox today: it wouldn’t be one team in, one team out, it would be, “yay, Yanks get home team advantage”.
Incredibly less dramatic and exciting.
Yeah, there were never any drug users or gamblers in baseball (checks calendar) 30 or 40 years ago…. or for that matter boozers… /s
Everyone except the Cardinals?
Poisoned Pens: Have you read “Ball Four?”
Mickey Mantle and others drank daily and were drunk on the field.
Speed aka “greenies” were readily available in MLB clubhouses, and many players popped them before and during games.
And guys like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmiero, and Ken Caminiti were on steroids and PEDs 30 years ago.
And the Pittsburgh drug trials for all the players buying and snorting coke were 40 years ago.
Quit being so naive.
Johnny utah: While I agree that the 3 division winners +1 wild card was a GOOD format it didn’t give any reward/advantage to the teams w the best record over the entire season.
162 games. What a grind.
Have two champions; a regular season one and a playoff one. So one league of 30 teams.
Each team gets an end of regular season check in amount based on where they finish.
Then an 8 team playoff format with first round 1-8, 2-7, 3-6 and 4-5. Each team gets a check in an amount based on where they finish. With last team standing pronounced WS champion.
Without extended playoffs it would kill a lot of interest late in season. There are so many more fans still in it late in season now since a lot of teams have a chance to make playoffs. Best thing MLB has done in a long time
So why not let even more teams in? True fans find reasons to watch even when their team is out of it. Fly by night fans only watch if there team is in it.
And it won’t last. This is TERRIBLE for baseball, as the best teams are no longer playing each other to get in. They’re playing for (yawn) home field advantage. See my Bucky Dent example. This system prevents moments like that from happening.
83 win teams DO NOT deserve a shot at the WS. It’s ridiculous.
@BlueBaron Or The Bronx Zoo, in which the biggest gambler was the team owner?
Baseball’s problems with gambling certainly go back to the beginning of the sport as a paid profession. Alcohol the same. Drugs certainly to the 60s (ask Dock Ellis!) and PEDs definitely pre-date the McGwire/Bonds/Sosa era (plus the hundreds of others that used and it did not get caught)
/s = sarcasm
The World Series used to be an event because it was the 2 best teams who had to win large divisions. Now it’s the small sample size Olympics.
People would watch with the interest of March Madness today (maybe more) and would stop what they were during in the middle of a weekday.
Today it’s not even on Fox half the time, but on FS1. And my Pirates 60 games in are ahead of the NL “champions”
And you knew where you were then,
Girls were girls and men were men,
Mister we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again,
Everybody pulled his weight, gee our old Lasalle ran great,
Those were the days
@Mojo37: And players were grossly underpaid and illegally exploited by the reserve system.
Were those really the days?
Injuries are part of baseball. What do you expect the commissioner to do about it?
@joggin
injuries are caused for 2 reason. 1: pitchers are encouraged and trained in high school, college, minors to throw harder and faster. you wont get drafted unless you throw 100+. 2: pitch clock has ruined the rhythm for many pitchers. and offers less time for the arm to relax in betw pitches. manfred changed the rules, installed this ridiculous timer. now pitchers are dropping like flies every. single. day. every. single. game.
Negative. It’s spin rate genius. NOT VELOCITY.
No, injuries happen because when you spend your life exerting yourself physically for a living, INJURIES HAPPEN
Pitchers have been blowing arms out since before mark the bird fidrych. Tommy John is a good example of slop thrown pre aĥĥhhhhhh Tommy John surgery. Ryan threw 100 plus at 40 and never sniffed arm problems. You are dismissed.
Utah you are right about it starting in high school or sooner but again – help us understand how Manfred can change that?
Johnny, it’s a business. The job of a business is to make money.
@for love
this isnt business anymore. its pure greed. and also desperation. bec mlb has fewer fans than nba or nfl or nascar. they might have less fans than golf at this point. they ruined the game and now are trying to make up for it by inventing new rules, extending playoffs, playing in korea and london and mexico and pretty soon they’ll send players to mars to play a game there. it used to be a sport. it used to be a game. then it became a business. now it’s just greedy millionaire owners, brainless millionaire players and i’m sick of it all
Lol its the teams that are pushing spin rate which is causing the elbow injuries you dummy
That’s why I’m on the edge of giving up MLB fandom, Johnny. It’s a multibillion dollar business. Advertising is everywhere, and every year it gets worse. Every team seems to have eight different uniforms. (Great for merch sales.) Players come and go at a higher rate than college sports. I don’t know how much longer I can take it.
They making Pitchers throw faster than their body was made to throw?
Utah this is so ridiculous. What does a commissioner have to do with this. Pitchers have been getting injured for 150 years – it’s accelerating now for a number of reasons, but mostly because of the incredible strain they now put on their arms trying to maximize velocity, spin rate etc… So are guys trying to make $100 million start to throw less hard or stop experimenting w new pitches? Can Manfred make this happen?
O’s fan here.
Means was a luxury who we assumed wouldn’t last long based on his history.
Wells, if he came back, was going to the bullpen.
So – it’s not as bad as it seems. Nothing has changed in terms of the team needing to make significant additions to the bullpen at the deadline. Povich will see time as the next man up in the rotation at some point. Maybe they find a way to acquire an innings guy for the rotation for support.
I think the Orioles clearly need a lefty starter. Luzardo makes sense.
Lodolo for cowser
Rich Hill is lurking in the weeds watching all of these teams lose starting pitchers to TJ surgery
Rich Hill and Jaime Moyer, the perfect innings eating duo.
Is Wilbur Wood still kicking?
Would you settle for a Woody Williams?
Gwynning- I’d settle for Brien Taylor before the infamous bar fight in 93
Heck, Charlie Hough could still chew up a few innings!
I hope we do more than an innings eater if we’re on the market for a guy. I think Suarez is fine for the 5th spot until he’s hopefully replaced with Povich.
Still two arms that would be great to have
Just thinkin – I agree to some extent but 1. Wells WAS the bullpen upgrade and 2. Means allows Suarez to stay in pen so these injuries – on top of Felix hurt a lot.
I hear you about adding to the pen – but name me 5 pens that are better? Basically they are the weak link of every contender.
3 years in a row for Means. That’s a record nobody wants.
My goodness this really sucks. Not an O’s fan but for the game this blows. Especially for Means, it’s just one elbow surgery after the next and now he won’t pitch again for another almost 18 months probably. Can’t imagine how it’s weighing on him mentally.
Free agent year, too.
@Just_thinkin Damn I didn’t realize it was his walk year too. Wow.
Does anyone recall a pitcher having two TJs almost back-to-back like this?
Cole Ragans, when he was with Texas in the minors. Literally had back-to-back TJ surgeries. He’s doing very well with the Royals now.
But he’s a lot younger than Means.
This is Pandemic trend now. We are on the UCĹ-23 Pandemic season!!!!!
When is enough’s enough? Hope for him he parked some cash and moves onto his next path.
So many injuries this year. Would like to see an article on the injuries and effect they have had on each team. One preferably not behind a paywall lol.
Are there actually more injuries this year? It always seems that way.
Do you have evidence of this steady increase or is it just speculation via the “eye test”?
It feels like there are more elbow injuries and surgeries this year, but I can’t make a judgement without seeing year-to-year data.
You got to feel for Means
And Wells. Not mentioned here but it’s Wells’s 2nd time under the knife as well.
That’s a donkey kick to the nads. Poor Means, he just finished rehab from his last TJS. O’s have the prospect capital to pick-up a decent P or 2 b4 trade deadline. They keep playing like they been gota be all-in 4play-offs. Pull that trigger.
Two trades that make sense
Marlins send Luzardo and Tanner Scott
Athletics send Blackburn and Miller.
Adds two rotation arms and two pen arms from the RH and LH side.
Definitely time for the Orioles to cash in prospects and make a push.
The O’s are too prospecthuggering to pull off both those trades, especially with an Ownership takeover in the wings.
If A.j. Preller was the o’s gm then he would trade the entire farm system, even the facilities themselves
Blackburn isn’t helping.Luzardo maybe but he hasn’t been near as good as before. Both make me cringe giving young players up for gotta be something better than that out there…
It is not what the Orioles wanted to hear but not surprising. From what both Means and Wells said recently, it was obvious that they expected UCL surgeries.
Literally two birds with the same stone
I like our starting pitching this year. My concern is if Burnes leaves after the season. Do u try to get another top notch SP this year for a top prospect? Do u wait and see what happens with Burnes? And who’s the SP you target with a top prospect?
Glad to see Burnes was a great choice vs Cease and an extra year of control. He is also pitching very well.
sultan.of swat: I think it’s ultimately up to Burnes deciding how many millions is enough to remain on a young contending team for the rest of his career or does he go chasing after every last dollar.
What’s actually up to Burnes is to decide where he wants to work, a choice he has earned by reaching free agency.
Simple as that.
Everyone knows Burns is total rental.. their first priorities as it should be is extending Henderson and Ruschman… 35 mill a year or more for Burns isn’t happening and any trade this year for another starter has to be more than a rental.. preferably 2 more years left or more
Second TJ for Tyler Wells, I think. I believe he had the procedure in like 2019 with the Twins before Baltimore picked him up in 2020’s Rule 5.
Daniel Hudson TJ’s 2012 and 2013
Dustin May TJ 2021 and 2022
Tough for Means. Likely not a serious option until 2026, and will he be able to give more than two months?
Let’s not forget that Bradish is also pitching on a patchwork elbow. I said in the preseason when the Orioles made the move for Burnes it wasn’t enough. Got hit back with Means and Bradish coming back. I said you couldn’t really count on either of them, and that Well’s numbers were concerning. Fast-forward and the O’s are living on a prayer with Irvin and Suarez.
The worst GM in baseball did the bare minimum to improve their rotation (Corbin Burnes) and did absolutely nothing to improve their bullpen (Craig Kimbrel, really?). Time and time again this guy keeps getting passes. Yeah he drafted good players but that required the Orioles to be bad for 5+ years. Hes done nothing. He had a shot during last years trade deadline to really make a splash and just sat back and did nothing. I’d rather win a World Series instead of bragging about all the prospects that I have. GMs like him don’t win. You need a win now GM like Dombrowski or AA. The games most overated GM will keep getting passes no matter what and it doesnt make any sense
Wow. What a take. This is literally the first season the Os started the season as contenders. And you’re trashing Elias for not going for it during their 100-loss seasons.
High draft picks are great, but how many of them actually hit. That’s not a guarantee in baseball lottery picks. There’s a decades long history of perennial losing teams that always had high picks and never hit too. The Orioles in the 2000s was one of them.
Second season of contention. We are not going to say a 101 win team was not a contender in 2023.
Most of 2023 the Orioles weren’t taken that seriously until pretty late in the season. And they weren’t picked to do much at the start of it either. By the end, in hindsight we all know what happened. But no one picked the Orioles to win the division in April 2023. Not even in July 2023.
He said “started the season as contenders.”
The worst GM in baseball? Elias was named MLB’s Executive of the Year in 2023.
GM’s like him don’t win? Elias’s team won 101 games last year and his team is currently on pace to win 105 games this year.
Congratulations on making a Top-10 worst MLBTR comment of all-time!
@brianjohnso1 Buck Showalter got NL Manager of the year in 2022 and then got fired in 2023. Just because Ellias got a made up award doesn’t make him any good. Hes the worst that there is
What an absolute clown comment. Mets fan tracks. I feel bad for you – you look utterly stupid.
Worst GM? That coming from a Mets fan? Dude, horrible take. This is essentially year two of their window. Let’s see what happens at the deadline.
That guy is just one awful hot take after another.
Always been that way.
It’s as if Mike Elias was thinking about 2024-25 when he supposedly gave up on 2022 and traded Jorge Lopez and Trey Mancini for Povich, McDermott, Seth Johnson, Cano and two Twins prospects who are coming along nicely. And backing that up be picking a bunch of college pitchers in rounds 3-6 of the 2022 and 2023 drafts. They’ve got plenty of starter depth.
It’s amazing to me how great Elias is as a talent evaluator. He started out in the trenches as a scout. It’s ungodly how frequently he hits on his picks. Of course they’re not all Gunnar Hendersons, but a lot of them are quality prospects or major leaguers no matter where he’s getting them from (low draft picks, rule V, waiver, trades…). The players you think are just to throw-ins turn out to become key players!
Reminiscent of what Elias’s Astros did in 2016 at the deadline.
Man this is absolutely tough, even before the team getting hurt by this, Means has been coming back time after time and when healthy has shown he’s still very good. Really hope the guy can come back and continue his career without further problems. Same goes for Wells who was on his way to an absolute breakout year last year before being shut down a bit. You never want to see guys go down with these potentially career ending injuries.
It does make you wonder if there is something that changed recently (like perhaps the pitch clock, just speculation on my part) that makes these things happen more often or if its just awful coincidence.
It is not the pitch clock.
I’m not sure you can completely discount it as it shortens the amount of time you’re recovering from exerting an amount kinetic energy through your muscles for a single pitch. I imagine it is probably some sort of combination of genetics, mechanics and less time to recover. But whose to say which is the major culprit in any particular case?
It’s the fact the unnatural spin rates everyone is trying to do now. Not how fast you pitch.. people in past could complete games. Palmer with 323 complete games. Nolan Ryan throwing 100 mph at over 40 before he retired.. His legs were only reason he didn’t keep pitching. It’s how pitchers are now taught to throw.. everyone looking for an advantage
As bad as it sounds, Os fans were probably ready to hear this. It was just a matter of being official (at least, as far as Means). We’ve been pretty much going through the year without these guys. So it doesn’t actually feels like losing any players.
Like someone else mentioned, Wells was probably going to the bullpen. He would have been great reinforcing there. We need it. But we’re basically in the same boat as yesterday: pretty good lineup, that needs some pitching help at the deadline (esp. bullpen). Although now we might be more on the market for an SP too?
The Orioles will be fine. They can acquire ANY pitcher they want or need between now and the July 30th trade deadline without subtracting from their Major League roster. It’s a matter of when – not if – they use their surplus of prospects to improve their team going into the stretch run. Elias will be very aggressive at the deadline.
Wally the Green Monster to undergo Tommy John surgery
If only the Bankee$ could have some luck like that, the Rays might actually get in the playoffs this year. If $ternberg doesn’t force the front office to trade Diaz, Eflin, and Arozarena in the off-season, watch out for them in 2025.
This is an epidemic no doubt. Pitch Clock.
Nope
Yep.
Ugh. Not cool. Feel that might be the last of Means and the Orioles. Though break all around.
Since John’s last surgery wasn’t too long ago do they get a discount on this surgery like “come back in three month and get 30% off”?
Wells is still young so he probably will rebound in 2026
I feel so bad for means, he has been one of the best lefty’s when he takes the field, this injury probably destroys his career
Let’s hope not. I don’t know but i wish his family will support him on his way back. It’s a tough road and he will need all the help, also from the O’s fans who are enjoying a rebirth of a great franchise.This coming from a long life yankee fan who grew up watching the Boids postseason after ps in the late 60’s and early 70’s
Wells will NOT be non-tendered. That is an absurd postulation by the writer.
Non-tendering and re-signing Wells is on the table.
Wells is a total non tender candidate.
Why? He’ll return to the bullpen where he was a first tier 8th inning guy and a decent closer when needed. He wanted to start but it was too much for his arm apparently. Plus he’s 3 years younger than John.
Because they can re-sign him to less money and a two year deal. Wells is also 1 year younger than Means, not 3.
Good news is we seem to have gotten through six hours of comments without a mention of you-know-who in the Mexican league.
Rhymes with sour?
No, it rhymes with past mgr of the O’s and a great ex-yanks OF named Hank.
Together?
O’s will take the division, anyways. Seems to be little respect for the birds.
Oh I could’ve said that before the start of the season, but know I think that the division will be a dog fight btwn the O’s and Yanks and NY will prevail.