Jack Flaherty was one of the more interesting mid-level starting pitchers in last year’s free agent class. The righty was arguably the best pitcher in MLB in the second half of 2019, but he didn’t cement himself as an ace in the following few seasons. He struggled in nine starts during the shortened season. Oblique and shoulder injuries cost him good chunks of the 2021 and ’22 campaigns, respectively. Flaherty stayed healthy for his walk year but allowed nearly five earned runs per nine between the Cardinals and Orioles.
That left both his camp and interested teams with questions once he hit the market. Was Flaherty still an upside play who had a realistic chance to turn in top-of-the-rotation results? If he felt that way, would he be best served taking a one-year deal and retesting the market next year? At 28, Flaherty was one of the youngest free agents of note. He ultimately chose the one-year route, signing a $14MM guarantee with the Tigers that contained another $1MM in performance bonuses.
It’s far too early to definitively declare the move a success, but his first month in Detroit has gone better than expected. Flaherty’s even 4.00 earned run average through 36 innings isn’t especially noteworthy. Yet he leads the American League with 50 strikeouts and has only issued five walks. His 16.4% swinging strike percentage would easily be a career high. It’s nearly six points up from last season.
Among pitchers with 30+ innings, only Freddy Peralta has a higher strikeout rate than Flaherty’s 34%. Jared Jones is the only pitcher getting more whiffs on a per-pitch basis. Flaherty is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts in Tuesday’s matchup against his old teammates with St. Louis.
There’s only so much a player can prove in a six-game sample, but Flaherty hasn’t missed bats at anything close to this level in five years. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder, we see that Flaherty hadn’t recorded more than 40 strikeouts in a six-game stretch at any point since his dazzling finish in 2019. While the ERA hasn’t caught up, Flaherty is dominating the strike zone in a way that he hasn’t for some time.
Flaherty’s stuff has ticked up slightly in the early going. His fastball is averaging 93.8 MPH, around half a mile per hour above where it sat in the previous two seasons. Perhaps more impactful has been the increased effectiveness of his breaking stuff. Flaherty’s best pitch, his slider, is missing bats at a high level after it waned in 2022-23. Opponents have come up empty half the time they’ve offered at his curveball. Flaherty is attacking hitters, particularly left-handers, with the breaking pitches a little more frequently than he has in previous seasons.
There’s a long way to go before he puts the questions about his 2021-23 performance behind him completely. As the season progresses, he’ll face tougher opposition than he has gotten thus far. Of his six starts, four have come against teams (the White Sox, A’s, Rays and Cardinals) that have been subpar offensively. Only his two starts against the Twins have been against a club with an above-average team batting line. While Minnesota has been solid overall, they’re a high-strikeout offense.
Yet if Flaherty stays healthy and continues to overpower opponents at anything close to this level, he’ll be in line for a much more lucrative free agent trip. He’ll play all of next season at 29, which is still atypically young for a free agent starter. He’d be a clear qualifying offer candidate (assuming the Tigers stay in the postseason mix and don’t trade him at the deadline), but he shouldn’t have much issue turning that down and landing a better multi-year pact.
Next winter’s class has a lot of high-variance but intriguing starters who could dramatically improve their stock in the next five months (i.e. Luis Severino, Walker Buehler, Frankie Montas, Blake Snell). Flaherty has a legitimate path to the top of that group, which could make him the #3 pitcher available behind Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
I’m sure Flaherty’s is flattered. 4.00 era is kinda pedestrian tho.
FIP is a better stat
“A legitimate path to the top of Buehler and Snell…”
Nah, hit the the road, Jack.
It’s not that outlandish. Buehler hasnt pitched since like mid-2022 so he’s an unknown, and Snell is pitching like a turd sandwich so it’s not known if he will even be a free agent.
Agree that Snell may opt out, disagree that Jack worth get more dollars than Snell or Buehler
Not to mention they haven’t won his starts. Out pitching your opponent is a quality ignored today. W’s mean something for a starting pitcher. Strikeouts only count in fantasy. Give me a 15 game winner every time. Still, Chris Fetters is again doing wonderful things.
Again, as has become usual, STYMEEDONE uses his lack of wisdom. You idiot, there is no I in team….W’s mean nothing to a starting pitcher…he strives for them, sure, but more importantly, if his team wins, he’s happy. You’re just doing your status quo in stating the stupidest things, STYMEEDONE. Seriously, stop embarrassing yourself, you’ve become a laughing stock.
Stymedone…Cant say i agree with your take on that. Wins don’t always tell the tale. Jacob Degrom won a Cy Young with 10 wins in 2018. Bill Gullickson won 20 games with the Tigers in 1991 and had terrible stats to back it up. Some mediocre pitchers win games because they have a good offence behind them.
Agree on Fetter though.
Verlander got hosed because the Red Sox averaged 7 runs a game when Porcelo pitched
Porcello was overrated that year. It didn’t make sense that he won.
It does point to an athlete’s ability to excell. Have you noticed some “#4” or “#5” pitchers have super games when pitching against DeGrom types. Seems like they just respond to the situation, overcome and find a way to win.
There is something to it.
Some batters do the same thing. RBIs is not exactly an individual stat, but it is a valid consideration. Or no?
People are really focusing on the last start (which was a fantastic gem, yes) over literally everything else. He’s not consistent.
He had a 4.42 over the previous four seasons. He feels like the type of pitchers that bad GMs chase hard/
He pitched a shade under 300 innings over the last 4 years combined. He was hurt a lot. Last year with the Cardinals he was really close to putting it together again he was just barely missing his spots.
I would put Flaherty in the same boat as a couple other pitchers you are familiar with Giolito and Sale. He has a lot of upside. I think the Tigers did well to sign him for 1 year 14 million.
Other than Strikeouts, Turnbull has out pitched him, for a lot less money.
Another stupid nugget from STYMEEDONE.
Turnbull is rocking a .184 BABIP. That both explains his sterling ERA & WHIP and is unsustainable. Flaherty has a .321 BABIP which shows he’s been a little unlucky so his performance is both sustainable and likely to improve.
Jack seems like the perfect guy to finally coax a long term contract for a pitcher out of Arte Moreno. And then immediately cause Arte to regret it.
I would take Flaherty over the 2 bums we signed Lynn and Gibson. The Cardinals better get rid of Marmol and these little league coaches before they become a punchline.
I have mixed feelings about Flaherty. He’s a bit of a flake but he’s talented. And a lot of players are leaving St Louis and playing better for their new teams.
LOL Gibby was leagues better than Jack last year. Cardinals coaching is just trash.
Not related to this story, but as in Story, Trevor Story..No mentioning of the Red Sox FINALLY Activating Vaughn Grissom, whom they acquired for Chris Sale…
MLBTR, NOTHING!!??
Not worthy of a post here.
Didn’t pay much attention to the next post did ya?
4 of 6 starts against the cellar dwellers. O’s didn’t see this version of Jack-o-Boo. worth watching but I’m not deeply impressed yet. still, glad he didn’t continue the trajectory of what BAL saw after his acquisition last yr. that was hard to watch
He made significant adjustments to his mechanics, especially the way he was planting his drive foot. That’s the reason he’s performing better.
Pitcher-friendly park in a pitcher-friendly division.
Neutral park in the winningest division.
Wow you’re on one tonight, STYMEEDONE! Idiot!
LOL anyone who thinks Flaherty will only be behind Fried and Burnes is insane. This is a flash in the pan. Severino and Montas are both more reliable with the right coaching (ie, not NYY). Snell is better than Flaherty on his worst day. Buehler if healthy blows Jack out of the water. Flaherty is a head case and will always choke.
How are Severino and Montas anywhere near “reliable”?
Montas’ only blip was right after he got traded to NYY. Severino was as consistent as they come until those injuries two years ago. Both of them were reliably better than Jack throughout their careers. Not all rebound candidates are created equal.
Severino has only 5 seasons where he started at least 19 games. The first 3 (2016-18) his ERAs were 5.83,2.98,3.39. The last 2 (2022-23) his ERA was 3.18, 6.65. His 2017/18 FIP was 3.08, 2.95 but his 2022 was 3.70. That’s hardly consistent. That’s 2 good years & 1 lucky one sandwiched between 2 bad seasons.
In other words, more good than bad. The outliers being his rookie year and last year.
That’s an impressive pair of rose colored glasses. He had 2 good years, 2 bad, and 1 lucky (3.70 FIP is hardly good).
So three good years in a row, exactly
Glad to see him pitching like a #2 behind Skubal. I expect Chris Fetter and the pitching lab had something to do with that. Hopefully he keeps this up. The pitching has been awesome (even Maeda is starting to pick it up). Now the bats need to catch up (Meadows, Tork, Rogers and Keith). Baez is Baez but at leadt hes stealing some bases.
It’ll all collapse. The idea of Detroit having a “pitching lab” is a sick joke.
Mmmm. One of the best pitching staffs in MLB so far this year. Fetter and Co have helped their staff tweak their deliveries and maximize their potential = “pitching lab”
Chris Fetter is a rising superstar. The next Roger Craig. He has done an amazing job for the Tigers. Every reclaim project he’s had has been successful. The Tigers pitching has been one of the best, from the starters to the bullpen. Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal pitches today in Yankee Stadium.
Won’t last. Tigers are trash.
They have another 130 games to prove you wrong. You seem to be one of those guys with crystal balls.
Flaherty has one of the biggest egos that I’ve ever seen. I’m glad hes gotten humbled over these past couple years ever since his 2020 stand agaisnt the fans that pay for his salary. He’d be working at McDonalds saying “May I take your order” if it wasn’t for us fans. 5th starter at best but I wouldn’t want him on my team. Overpaid divas that act like know it all are the worst
Dumbest thing I’ve read in a long, long time.
You dont peruse the internet much then do you.
It’s actually a pretty decent rotation in Detroit
Bullpen is not bad either. Manning started a no hitter last year and is waiting at Toledo for the next double header.
@vtadave – you don’t read STYMEEDONE’s comments do you? His are an embarrassment of stupidity, ever since Scott Harris got hired as PBO. STYMEEDONE will do anything and everything to insult him and has a horrible case of Harris Derangement Syndrome. STYMEEDONE has soiled his reputation completely.
A lucid thought from STYMEEDONE? Well, that blind squirrel found a nut.
It’s a shame the Tigers CANT hit as they’re wasting all of this great pitching they’re getting this early in the year. As typical with this team once they do start hitting the pitching won’t be there…looks like another middling season hovering around .500 for the Motown Pussycats. UGH!!!
Not really. The last 3 seasons this team dig themselves into a giant Houston sized hole so when the hitting kicked in they ended up close to .500. This season they are well above.500 so they’ll be in much better shape when temperatures warm up and the ball flies better.
Flaherty could be a pretty decent pitcher if he keeps his ego in check. He was pitching really well few years ago before he discovered social media.
He has had shoulder problems since his 2019 season. It will flare up again. The 2nd half of the season he’ll be hard to watch (if not before).
I wish Flaherty well. He was very young when he started in St Louis. He talked a bit too much at first. He learned from those mistakes as he aged. I hope he can finally tap into all that potential.
Good 4em, been through the ringer in last yr. He Giolito, n Fried were all on same high school baseball team, all 1st rounders.
the realization of switching leagues in a first time opportunity… makes sense he has these numbers, as most pitchers SHOULD when initially switching. players will get used to you. only question THIS year is the limited in-league and in-division games being played as the schedule has changed dramatically and every team now plays each other throughout (still just so dumb). I’m sure later in the year, if not sooner, he will go back to normal.
No. First, with the level of analytical data available there is little advantage to changing leagues. AL pitchers used to get a nice bump going to the NL because of the lack of DH, buys that’s no more. Second, he made significant mechanical changes that increased his velocity and control. That won’t change.
I am always disappointed in one year contracts with no team options.
The professional team is ALLOWING the player OPPORTUNITY to showcase on the MLB level. The team should have more upside than just rental trade value or one year and bye… the team IS taking a bit of a chance with MILLIONS of dollars.
As I see other teams leapfrogging the Tigers in the standings I might be developing some HDS or more likely CDS.
Everyone know Poor Al stacked up a lot of pitching. What was to be done? The obvious. We get the oblivious.
More sales pitch about prospect hopefuls. Good sales pitch. Professional.
Overall I like the moves but absolutely, missing that spearhead.
CIDS, I looked forward to a dynasty after all of this time.
I’d think CI fell in love with hockey right around that time Mr. I raided the Russians.
Missing that spearhead to consolidate the movement.
I hope Jack Flaherty continues to pitch with excellency.
He won’t.
And how much money is Flaherty’s agent giving MLBTR to write this puff piece and help him get a better contract next offseason? There is no transaction news or rumor here. It’s just some stats regurgitated from publicly available sites to say “hey, my guy is good, let me try and get him an extension or more arb money.”
Just like the recent infusion of ad posts here, a shameless attempt to get dough. And yet another weak attempt by MLBTR to be like Fangraphs.
Stay in your line: you’re a transactions site, not a stats site. There is nothing novel about this article: “ohhhh so-and-so is good, here are some stats I found that anyone would see if they check is page on Statcast.” And it’s not even remotely comprehensive at only like 6 paragraphs.
Stop this nonsense.
You can create your own website, feel free to, but what you don’t have the right to do is dictate what someone else puts on their website, whether you think it’s appropriate or not to the essence of what you believe the site’s function is.
False. The first amendment protects my right to express my opinions on their crappy writing just as you have the right to try and tell me what to do. Funny that you use the word “dictate” when you’re telling me what my rights are and aren’t.