Gleyber Torres’ Early-Season Power Drought

The 2024 season is a pivotal one for Gleyber Torres. The longtime Yankee second baseman will almost certainly head to free agency in November. Torres has publicly angled for an extension on multiple occasions in recent years, but there hasn’t been any indication the team wanted to strike early to keep him beyond this season.

Torres projects as one of the more interesting mid-level hitters in next winter’s class. He isn’t doing himself any favors with his early-season performance, though. Torres is out to a .208/.289/.273 start through 174 plate appearances. He didn’t hit his first home run of the season until May 2 and hasn’t collected multiple hits in a game since April 29. His overall production has hovered around replacement level.

It’s a surprisingly poor start for a player who has emerged as one of New York’s more consistent offensive contributors. Torres was a decidedly above-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, in four of his first six MLB seasons. Last year was among the best of his career. He connected on 25 homers with a .273/.347/.453 slash over a personal-high 672 trips to the plate.

Torres didn’t have the gaudy slugging numbers he posted back in 2019, when he popped a career-best 38 longballs in the so-called “juiced ball” season. Yet he cut his strikeout rate to a personal-low 14.6% mark and posted the highest on-base percentage in any full season of his career. There’s an argument the 2023 season was Torres’ best after accounting for the significantly depressed offensive environment compared to ’19.

While there are a few months to turn things around, he’s amidst a rough opening to his walk year. Torres’ triple slash stats are all easily at personal lows. His rate of hard contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater) has dropped 10 percentage points relative to last season. After squaring up a solid 40.3% of batted balls a year ago, he’s down to 30.4% thus far. That ranks 228th among 264 qualified hitters, per Statcast.

Torres is not only making decidedly less impactful contact, he’s making less contact of any kind. His strikeout rate has jumped to 23.6%, which would be the highest since his rookie season. He’s swinging through more pitches both within and outside the strike zone. It’s not disastrous — Torres’ strikeout and walk marks are right around league average — but it’s a major step back from where he was last season.

This isn’t quite the worst stretch of Torres’ career. He had a slightly worse month and a half coming out of the All-Star Break back in 2022. Torres rebounded with a power explosion that September that presaged his strong ’23 campaign. It’s certainly not out of the question that he puts this recent slump behind him.

League-wide power numbers tend to improve in the summer as the weather warms. That has typically been the case for Torres, who has a career .369 slugging percentage in March and April and has been north of .400 in every other month. It’s not uncommon for him to take some time to find his power, although that doesn’t typically come with the kind of swing-and-miss he has shown this year.

It’s imperative he put things together fairly quickly if he’s going to land the kind of contract his camp presumably envisioned coming into the season. Torres’ profile is driven by his offensive ability. While there’s value in being able to play up the middle, he’s a fringy defender at second base. It’s not likely that teams would consider moving him back to shortstop, where he had well below-average grades and hasn’t played regularly since 2021.

Torres was already looking to buck an unfavorable market trend towards second basemen. As shown on the MLBTR Contract Tracker, there are only a handful of recent free agent deals for second basemen that exceeded $50MM. Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175MM pact stands as an anomaly that Torres was never going to match — and Semien had a plausible argument as a potential shortstop before the Rangers signed Corey Seager a few days later. Mike Moustakas (four years, $64MM) and DJ LeMahieu (six years, $90MM) are more realistic comparison points, though those players could also play third base.

Teams have generally been more willing to invest in second basemen via extensions (e.g. Jose Altuve, Andrés Giménez, Ketel Marte, Jake Cronenworth, Jeff McNeil) than on the open market. That doesn’t seem likely to happen with the Yankees, who could be content to turn the position to Oswald Peraza after this season.

Torres’ biggest selling point once he gets to the open market is his youth. He’ll play all of next season at 28. It’s likely his camp would try to push for a deal in the range Andrew Benintendi received at the same age (five years, $75MM). That contract has aged very poorly for the White Sox, but he’d been a similar caliber of hitter as Torres leading up to his signing. Benintendi was a Gold Glove winner who plays a less important position.

However, the market for mid-tier hitters last offseason wasn’t as robust as it had been in the previous winter (when Benintendi signed). Jeimer Candelario and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. each landed three-year guarantees in the $14-15MM annual range. As with Torres, they’d generally been good but not elite hitters who weren’t offering immense defensive value. Neither Candelario nor Gurriel was eligible for a qualifying offer. If Torres turns things around, he could receive one from the Yankees.

Torres will need to start hitting soon for that to be a factor. He has already played his way out of the leadoff spot to the bottom half of the order. It’s too early for Aaron Boone to consider pulling him from the lineup entirely, but the Yankees should be locked in a tight race with the Orioles throughout the summer. They can’t afford to live with no production from second base all season, and Peraza is on a rehab stint from a Spring Training shoulder strain. How Torres performs over the next two months will be a key factor in both New York’s chance of winning a tough division and his appeal to teams when he hits the market.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.