The Braves are “keeping a close eye on” Zach Eflin as a potential trade target prior to the deadline, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. Rotation help has been circled as a likely need for Atlanta ever since Spencer Strider was lost for the season to an internal brace surgery, and Eflin stands out as a potentially intriguing choice for several reasons.
First and foremost, Eflin is again pitching well in terms of bottom-line results, with a 4.12 ERA over 10 starts and 59 innings. The right-hander continues to be among the best control specialists in the game with a sterling 1.6% walk rate, though there are some red flags in other notable categories. Eflin is again among the league leaders in barrels even if his barrel rate is only slightly below average, but his hard-hit ball rate (41.6%) and strikeout rate (17.9%) are also both subpar. He was well above average in both categories in 2023, when Eflin’s first season in Tampa Bay resulted in a sixth-place finish in AL Cy Young Award voting.
A contender like the Braves won’t necessarily be scared off by Eflin’s 2024 numbers, as they are very familiar with Eflin’s work after dealing with him as a division rival during Eflin’s years with the Phillies. Durability might also be a concern given Eflin’s long history of knee problems, but he tossed 182 2/3 innings last year between the regular season and playoffs, and had only a brief IL stint due to a bad back.
These are all good reasons why the Rays themselves might naturally want to keep Eflin in their own rotation as they continue to vie for another postseason berth. Tampa Bay is 11-6 in its last 17 games, a hot streak that has gotten the club back up to a 25-23 record after a mediocre April. Eflin has also been a stabilizing force in a rotation beset by injuries, even if some reinforcements are on the way. Ryan Pepiot could return from the 15-day IL this week in his recovery from a leg contusion, Shane Baz (currently on a rehab assignment) and Jeffrey Springs are tentatively expected to return from Tommy John surgery rehab in July or August, and Drew Rasmussen is on roughly the same timeline after he went an internal brace procedure last July.
If at least one of Springs, Baz, or Rasmussen is already back by the deadline and the Rays are comfortable with the recovery status of the others, it is possible Tampa Bay might feel comfortable counting on these internal arms to help fill the gap created by trading Eflin. It is a risk that most teams might not take, and yet as always with the Rays, payroll could be a factor in their decision-making. Eflin is in the second season of a three-year, $40MM contract that was paid out as $11MM in both 2023 and 2024, and then $18MM in 2025. (He also receives a $1MM bonus in the event of a trade.)
Moving Eflin would allow the Rays to avoid the backloaded final portion of that contract, and get the remainder of Eflin’s 2024 salary also off the books. Even if Eflin isn’t dealt at the deadline, it stands to reason that the Rays might explore moving him this offseason, similar to how the club dealt Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers last winter before Glasnow was owed $25MM in 2024 under the terms of his previous contract.
Acquiring Eflin would also have some interesting payroll implications for a Braves team whose projected luxury tax number (as per RosterResource) sits at approximately $272.5MM. This is already well into the second tax tier and not far off the third tier that begins at $277MM. Atlanta hasn’t been shy in spending big in pursuit of another World Series title, but crossing the $277MM threshold carries the secondary penalty of a 10-slot drop for the Braves’ first selection in the 2025 draft. Eflin being controlled through 2025 might carry some particular for the Braves, however, as Max Fried and Charlie Morton will both be free agents this winter.
Alex Anthopoulos and Erik Neander are two of the most creative executives in baseball, so any number of interesting Atlanta/Tampa trades could be devised that would perhaps allow Eflin to change teams while also allowing the Braves to stay under that third luxury tax tier. The Rays could eat a larger portion of Eflin’s contract in order to obtain a better prospect return from the Braves, or perhaps a third team could be brought into the talks to balance things out.
Atlanta’s rotation has still been pretty solid even without Strider, as Braves starters entered Sunday with a combined 3.44 ERA (tenth-best in baseball). Fried, Morton, Chris Sale, and Reynaldo Lopez have all been good to great, though Sale’s durability is always a question mark and Lopez (who has a sparkling 1.34 ERA) is in his first season as a full-time starter since 2020, and he hasn’t tossed more than 66 innings in a season since 2019. Bryce Elder is the fifth starter and Darius Vines, Allan Winans, Huascar Ynoa, and top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep provide additional depth, though a pitcher like Eflin could be more of a proven commodity for a team with championship aspirations.
Considering the fact that AA never lets stuff leak, I’m calling straight BS on this.
I’d be shocked if ATL scouts aren’t observing a few targets, but not necessarily a stretch. That being said, Nightingale fave game is Hasbro’s Jump to Conclusions®️
I don’t think it will happen but I could see a scenario where the Cardinals trade Sonny Gray to the Braves. Gray grew up not far from Atlanta. The Cardinals season isn’t going well and a rebuild needs to happen even if it probably wont.
The world does not revolve around the GM of the Braves. Remember, in order to consummate a trade, two teams are involved.
Your takes on this site getrealgone are ‘always the worst of the bunch’
Tampa does
With the 3 mentioned starters above, Pepiot, Poche and Devenski are also returning. Add in Brandon Lowe, the Ray’s are gonna have to make some interesting transactions soon. A trade to the Braves only happens with a top catcher in return.
Nah. Rays don’t care about catching. They are fine trotting out Action Jackson every other game. Braves have good pitching prospects. My guess is the Rays will want some of them.
But, but, but don’t the Rays need him for a playoff run?
Unless they shakedown the Braves, why would the Rays trade him?
I think sometimes writers report stories that they want to see happen; especially when we’re in May and transactions are slow. Every year we have rumors reported and very few are ever found to be true
No one will shake down the Braves in a trade. Also, AA doesn’t leak anything to the media.
Well, I want a shakedown lol
AA got shook down with the Contreras trade.
I told a buddy (and fellow Braves fan) the other day. Brewers fleeced As and Braves. They gave away almost nothing.
Facts. That Contreras Trade was a total shakedown. AA is a good GM but he was kind of fixated on proving he could do it without Freddie Freeman/with Matt Olson. Then his Baby Boy Matt Olson wanted Sean Murphy (and AA probably preferred having a Veteran Catcher). BTW I love Sean Murphy, I just love Contreras more. If we kept Freeman & traded Langliers for Murphy I would’ve been fine with it.
Rays could see a surplus of pitching on the horizon and not a realistic shot at a world series with the current team. Also, they are not perfect on the trade front. Civale deal looks like a bust recently. Nelson Cruz trade was awful. Oddly enough, their “all-in” moves seem to backfire.
Think the Rays are only dark horses at best for the postseason. That roster is too full of holes, they’ll probably do their typical Rays move to make the team worse in the short term in the hopes that it benefits them in the long term.
This year’s Rays have no business being in the playoffs. They need a LOT to go right but have shown a severe lack of discipline at a fundamental level. Kevin Cash has really shown his true abilities as a coach… And we’re stuck with him for years. IF all the pitchers (Rasmussen/Springs/Baz) all come back healthy with no setbacks and IF they all perform well then maybe the Rays have a chance. But those are two big IFs. The Rays are a horribly ran organization that is always glossed over by the media. Being a fan can be difficult at times.
This is a very strange take. I guess you’re a follower and fan and I am not, so you should know better. But I have never heard any complaints about Kevin Cash, like ever, and their FO is very highly thought of for the way they stay competitive in such a tough division. I just listened to an interview with hitting coach Chad Mottala, and I was very impressed with his take on hitting and how they work with the players. Batting coaches usually have short tenures but he’s been there 7 years. I dunno, from my quick assessment it sounds like the Rays have a good idea what’s going on. [Way better than whatever is happening in Toronto!]
He has no passion and has had absolutely questionable decisions every game. He continues to follow data and numbers instead of going with his gut. I blame management more for pushing their analytical policies onto the coaching. However, I can not for the life of me blame anyone but the coaches when half the players are simply making bad decisions. Their base running, defense, and offense are riddled with bad decision making. I can’t blame anyone but Cash and the coaches for that. And the final blow is that he has a very nonchalant way of dealing with losses. He has a ‘can’t be helped’ attitude and it drives me crazy. He never holds his players accountable with the exception of Wander last year (but that may have been out of his hands). Like I said, it’s very glossed over by the media because the Ray’s payroll is ridiculously low. But watch a montage of games this year and see all the mental mistakes the players have made. If that’s not a coaching problem, I don’t know what is.
They never go that extra yard when they’re in it in July. They also hug their MI prospects too much and for too long. Horribly run? …nah.
They coddle prospects to the point where they become AAAA players and never adapt… Or get hurt in the minors. Then they come up and the Rays use their analytics to increase spin rates which blows out arms early and often. Their conditioning is also questionable. But hey, this is just my opinion of the team. Just tired of the same ole crap with different names.
Can’t say I agree with this take, and I follow the Rays pretty closely.
Which take would that be my friend? There’s a half-dozen above you, just unclear which one you are referring to…
I feel there are plenty of Rays fans who still support the analytical approach of the Rays. I follow them more with my heart than my brain so I’m disappointed with all the awful play. It’s not only offense and pitching. The defense has been inexcusable every game. I just don’t feel like Cash is a winner and that’s just my opinion about him.
Thank you I appreciate hearing a fan’s perspective. One thing I always wondered about the Rays is perhaps they are held back because they have never seemed like a cohesive unit. The starting pitchers have their own identity. The bullpen is always full of characters. Then the guys in the dugout are from all over the world, with many speaking Spanish but not from the same country. And a smattering of white guys. I always wondered if that worked against them for any reason.
I would never say that more diversity results in a lack of cohesiveness. But rather, lack of leadership and accountability. Brandon Lowe is the closest we have to a leader and he is the most soft-spoken polite man. Mix that with huge egos (Randy/Wander/Tandy/Siri) and you can kind of get why the team never comes together. However the reason the team isn’t cohesive is because everyone knows the Rays are a stopgap. Guys don’t stay in town too long because they eventually price themselves out of Tampa Bay or play themselves out of the league. Not many extensions or promises from the Rays… Only the promise if greener pastures if they succeed. This creates an individualist approach where guys are trying to hit HRs every AB or trying to steal (usually failing) every game. It’s all about individual numbers for then and their next contract. It’s really painful to watch.
While I don’t think the rays should trade him if the rays still consider themselves competitive the rays will probably trade him because his record contract is getting too expensive for their owner
Yeah that 18 million in 2025 looks like something they would like to get away from.
The fact that the Braves and Rays are both perennial contenders and the Rays have a third of the payroll is an issue. Teams like the Rays and Guardians can win with low payrolls but it’s so hard to do it year after year because they have to keep plugging nobodies into the lineup instead of trading for or extending great talent like Atlanta and picking up a few premium FA pieces.
I know I’m not supposed to talk about the nfl but why doesn’t mlb have a salary cap, even the nba is basically putting one to prevent superteams, salary caps prevent teams like the rays being cheap or the Yankees spending all their earnings
You could do a search here on MLBTR and find AMPLE discussion on the salary cap issue to last you until the next CBT is up for discussion or until the cows come home
I was going say don’t we have Ian Anderson coming back late July ? Plus I think if the Braves go pitching it will be to get another bullpen arm. Starters haven’t looked at that bad and we have 1-2 minor league pitchers that could be close to a shot at the major league level
I guess the question is do they have the a rotation they’d feel comfortable with for a 7 game playoff series.
Don’t watch that many Braves games, but wouldn’t Efflin be their #2 or #3 starter sans Strider.
Sale looks like an ace again. Fried is an ace and Lopez looks good
This is exactly it. I think they would feel comfortable with Fried, Morton and Sale, with Lopez as a potential candidate as well … BUT .. can they trust those guys to stay healthy.
If the offense doesn’t start clicking, the Braves might not even get to the playoffs if they are not careful. Right now, Sale and Lopez are pitching very well, but can they hold up? If not, the Braves have nothing more than Quad-A guys waiting on the farm. Elder, Ynoa, Dodd, Vines, Winan … they are not scaring anyone. They need to move 3-4 of their Quad-A arms for a rental or expensive arb year type (like Cease).
I do not see Eflin as the answer, though he might at least stay healthy and be a bit better than the Quad-A’s. The article mentions the Braves would not be scared off by his 2024 numbers in light of his 2023 numbers, but quite frankly, 2023 was his career year. (3.50 era when all other years put him at almost 4.50). Quite frankly, I wouldn’t put much faith in Eflin helping much.
Back to the bargain bin they go. This team will miss the playoffs.
Dude the Braves lost one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in Strider. That’s not easy to overcome.
Twenty-nine million over the next two years is the “bargain bin”? Where do you shop?
Whatever you want to call it, the team is not good.
That’s pretty stupid
I hope the Braves wait out the market on Starting Pitchers, tbh. I think the rotation will be fine.
I’d like to see them get one more reliever, and maybe a big league capable 3B in the event Riley misses more time than anticipated. But I trust AA, and I wouldn’t call any of Atlanta’s needs pressing.
If Lopez is pitching well in July then yeah it very well could be good enough. If he’s not I think they could look for help. Sale and Fried are playoff starters. Morton looks like a number 4. I think Lopez is the wild card.
As a Cardinal fan I really wouldn’t mind if they trade Gray and get out of his backloaded contract. Gray grew up near Atlanta I think a deal could make some sense.
I wouldn’t mind Atlanta acquiring a Cardinals starter, but Gray’s durability scares me. When he’s on, he is tough to hit though. But I think Atlanta needs dependability more than “lights out”, if they’re going for a starter. It isn’t flashy, but for that reason, I’d rather have Lynn.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Donovan on the Braves, either. But I can’t imagine that’s likely.
Are you serious????
Dude Lynn is a bum. Gray is a true ace.
Cardinals will trade Edman at some point but he’s still hurt so not sure when that happens. Donovan maybe but I doubt he’s dealt.
I just don’t see the Braves needing an ace though. Plus, again, it’s the durability concerns with Gray.
I know Lynn is just a 4th starter, at best. But if the Braves acquire a pitcher, that’s really all they need. And Lynn regularly takes the hill, which has some value.
The other thing is what would be the prospect cost? The Braves farm system isn’t barren, but it is thin. I’d hate to see them trade too much of it away because then you get in situations where you have no depth.
Who knows what you need. Last year what you had obviously wasn’t enough.
Gray wouldn’t cost a bunch in trade capital and that’s a good fit for the Braves because they don’t have a lot of prospects. The negative would be his contract is backloaded. He’s only making 10 million in 2024 but he makes 25 in 2025 and them 35 in 2026 and there is a buyout for 5 million in 2027. That’s why I think the Cardinals might trade him they want out of the back end of that deal.
Civale has been not so good this year. So it’s possible he gets demoted when the others are back healthy. Elfin can always be dealt in the off-season since the Rays will have Shane back healthy next season.
Get these stupid articles off of here and don’t give $ternberg and his penny punching group of owners any more ideas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see $ternberg trade the whole team for a bag of cash and have minor leaguers play out the season. Somehow the gm and coaches would get the team into the playoffs, they would lose in the first round, gm would be praised, they would set records in fastest spin rate, and 3/5 starters would have Tommy John and be out for the year. Keep Eflin, and try to build on a healthy staff for 2025, and for goodness sakes, take a gamble on a decent free agent instead of not signing anyone or just signing veteran castoffs and roster fillers.
Oh please. The Rays payroll is at a all time high. The Glasnow trade has worked out well for both sides. DeLuca has been back for less than a month & has been a solid OF. Ryan P was on a roll before his leg contusion. Having the highest payroll does not equal championships. Look at the Mets as a example.
AA is playing 3D quidditch.
He certainly is…how in the world did he know about Lopez and like, how he instantly took to being a starter and has been lights out. I mean…that was impressive. The way he was confident about Sale bouncing back…I spit out my coffee in hysterics when I heard about that trade and now I have egg on my face. Okay, so maybe the Kelenic trade will be just a MEH but it’s still early.
At or around the Deadline, the Rays could have Eflin, Civale, Littell, Springs, Pep, Bradley, Alexander and possibly Baz and Rasmussen available as SPs. Eflin would be one of their top 5 pitchers this year, with Baz, Springs and Ras returning from TJS, but I don’t know that the gap between Eflin and the 6th pitcher will be that extreme. The Rays could trade Eflin at the Deadline for a premium (most deadline trades for pitchers involve a premium), and I’d be fine with that as a Rays fan. They aren’t paying Eflin $18MM next year anyway.
Article Correction – Baz started his rehab assignment on May 4th, which means it ends in 2 weeks per MLB rules. Springs is pitching a FCL game tomorrow, and expected to join Durham if it goes well, which means his rehab assignment will end in June too. The July/August timeframes quoted in the article for Springs are no longer valid (and were never valid for Baz).
Correction to my correction – The Tampa Bay Times reports that Springs and Baz are eligible for 3 ten day extensions of their rehab assignments as TJS pitchers, so technically they could both see their rehab assignments go into July (but not August).
Why help Atlanta? Tampa is in their own race for the division.
The Tigers have pieces that fill some of the potential needs I see mentioned for Atlanta. SP Casey Mize; BP take your pick; fill in 3B Urshela and Ibanez. It would cost them though. Michael Harris plus minor leaguers for Mize, BP piece, Urshela and Meadows. That fills all the needs I see mentioned. No? How about subbing in Austin Riley for Harris and Jace Jung for Meadows?
If Atlanta needs pitching the Tigers have lots and the Tigers need offense. The last trade Jimenez for Malloy was mutually beneficial for both teams. I see a fit there.
@Motor City: So Tigers unwanted junk for Harris II or Austin Riley?????? You must think Anthopolous recently suffered a serious brain injury. Braves aren’t dealing two core members of their starting lineup for back end rotation starters and spare parts. Riley’s in the second year of a 10 year deal. Harris II is in his second year of an 8 year contract. Both are probably off limits in any trade negotiations.
No one is ever off limits. I suggested one or the other not both. Mize is pitching well and Jung or Meadows are highly ranked prospects and close to the majors at the same position as Riley and Harris. The spare parts were to fill in for Riley who i understood was hurt? A good bullpen arm is not spare parts.
Riley has an intercostal strain in his left side. No oblique injury. Braves taking it easy w/him by not rushing him back. He’s taking grounders and will probably start hitting in bp again tomorrow. No way the Braves trade Riley or Harris II for prospects and an oft injured back of a rotation arm like Mize—probably won’t for any pitcher. The Braves also don’t deal anything of value for pen arms. Malloy had no future w/the them. “No one is ever off limits” is a nice thought but Riley, Albies, Olson, Acuna and Harris II are as close to unavailable as it gets. The Braves didn’t extend those five to long term team friendly deals to trade them. “Highly ranked prospects” offered in trade mean nothing to the Braves in their current state. Much too competitive to make rebuilding moves. Why would you think the Braves have any interest in dealing for prospects just because they play the same position as their current stars? Anthopolous pretty much only deals players that don’t pass muster w/the organization. Other than William Contreras, he hasn’t dealt anyone of value (and that for Sean Murphy so pretty even on that deal)—and that includes V. Grissom.
Not happening now lol.. IL with the ol sore back again!!
Or conveniently timed phantom injury with Pepiot returning to the mound Wednesday?
I feel like a trade for Eflin would probably send Bryce Elder & maybe a 2nd prospect to Tampa Bay. However, with the Acuna injury the team will have to decide if they’re spending big or staying under the third tax tier. The money combined with slipping 10 slots in the Draft is a huge gamble without Acuna. They’d need to land a SP & 1 or 2 Outfielders.