Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).
Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.
Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).
Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).
France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.
Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.
The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.
Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.
Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.
That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.
More starts by horrible SP?
As long as they aren’t considering winning more baseball games, most fans will be pleased.
I know a guy who can fill that sixth spot!
There are probably less than 5 MLB teams where he has more than a 0 percent chance to sign. Take away:
1. Any liberal city
2. Amy team he played for
3. Any team with pitching
4. Any team not desperate
That leaves 3-5 teams. I would say Houston is one
Don’t ya despise bleeding-heart, always-triggered loonies who believe everything that politicians and teleprompter-readers on the fake news tell them?!
The seventh too.
Looking at this year, they should consider a 4 man rotation. Blanco has been their only starter worth anything. Having a bigger rotation only means fewer starts for their only good starter.
Thanx for the suggestion Chuckles, but I already have one bad team that I am watching this year.
How ’bout a 162-man rotation? A million per start. Easy gig. Plenty of rest!
Hiflew is a Rockies fan, they wouldn’t know what to do with good pitching if they ever got it
The Astros need to cut ties with McCullers.
Just move on.
Why would they cut him they’re paying him either way
Or if you use your brain and think, he should be moved to the bullpen and would do very well.
He could never pitch past 4 innings as a starter because he nibbled too much and high pitch counts. His arm gets hurt all the time. He does have great stuff, high K numbers, and an elite mentality/presence which would be a huge asset in the back end of a bullpen. Not to mention the Astros bullpen is shaky at best this season. Move Lance to the pen, and watch him thrive!
The Astros medical staff have gone on record as stating that their opinion is that a regular starters routine and never pitching more than once every 3-5 days is the best chance he has to stay healthy.
He is a rare pitcher that is a starter who can not be considered for the bullpen.
When/if he returns it will be in the rotation.
Now, if 5+ pitchers get healthy and established in the rotation they have discussed moving Luis Garcia to the bullpen. They feel he can be a high impact leverage reliever.
If he comes back he is not a starter.
I think there’s reason for optimism here. When everyone gets healthy the fringe pitching will be sent back to the minor leagues.
It’s also more than likely that Hadder, Presley and Brian Abreu will pitch much better moving forward than they have thus far
That rotation is never going to look good as long as Brown is part of it. He belongs in AAA.