The Astros are out to a slow start this year, currently sitting 15-25, ahead of just the White Sox and Angels in the American League standings. That’s led to early speculation about them possibly trading some pieces at this summer’s deadline.
General manager Dana Brown was recently on MLB Network and said that he “can’t predict any scenario” where the Astros sell at the deadline. But as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that channel is usually on in clubhouses and he may have decided to portray public confidence with the players watching.
There will be many interesting decisions for the club to make this year, though the on-field performance will obviously play a huge factor in how they make those choices. There is still time for them to climb back into contention, with the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently giving them a 39.6% chance to make the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them slightly better than a coin toss at 51.3%.
If the club does end up in selling position, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to tear the roster down to the studs. Cristian Javier is under contract through 2027, Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader through 2028 and Jose Altuve through 2029. Players like Luis Garcia, Chas McCormick and Bryan Abreu are arbitration-eligible through 2026, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers through 2027, while Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco are controllable even beyond that.
There are also some guys closer to free agency that the club may have to think about trading if they can’t climb in the standings in the next two months. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent. Justin Verlander is as well, though he has a conditional player option for 2025. Ryan Pressly is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, though his 2025 mutual option becomes guaranteed if he makes 50 appearances this year. That’s a number he’s hit in the past seven full seasons and he’s already at 16 this year, meaning he’ll vest that option as long as he’s healthy. Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy each have one more arbitration season remaining before they are slated for free agency after 2025.
Though the club may have to at least field some calls on that group, there will be some complications with Verlander and Pressly. As mentioned by Rome, both players have opt-outs and would prefer to stay in Houston. That tracks with last week’s report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who also highlighted Verlander’s love of Houston.
Perhaps that means the most likely scenario is both players stay for next year. Verlander will have a player option if he gets to 140 innings this year and could trigger it, or perhaps re-sign even if he doesn’t make it to that line. With Pressly on pace to lock in another year on his deal and not jazzed about being traded, perhaps he just stays as well. Verlander is now 41 years old and Pressly is 35, so they may have to think about whether their love for Houston is strong enough for them to stick around and play out the string on a lost season, as opposed to competing for another ring elsewhere. But they have a few months to think that over.
For now, the club has to ponder its roster construction as they try to win the ball games in front of them. At the start of the month, the club began a stretch of playing 29 games in 30 days and manager Joe Espada said that the club would be considering a six-man rotation.
They haven’t exactly stuck to that plan initially. Javier started Saturday’s game and only recorded four outs, which led to Brown throwing five innings of long relief. Whether Brown will stick in the bullpen for a while or make another start seems undecided right now. The next three contests are slated to be started by Spencer Arrighetti, Blanco and Valdez, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle on X, but with Espada telling Kawahara that either Javier or Brown could take the ball on Thursday. The club doesn’t have an off-day until May 23, and then plays another 13 straight after that. Espada says they will have a six-man rotation at some point but it’s not exactly clear how often Brown will be starting or relieving.
Rock and a hard place for this team. Once they get Luis Garcia and McCullers back their rotation looks awesome but it’s gonna start getting late early for them if they can’t pull it together soon.
McCullers should never be a starter again. He spends far too much time on the IL, so they should use him as a bullpen weapon.
“McCullers should never be a starter”…At this point I’m wondering whether there ever was a guy named Lance McCullers or whether he was an urban legend, Like Elvis, Tupac or bigfoot.
McCullers has been off the radar for so long to where there are basically no articles that ever talk about him, similar to degrom’s status now but at least Jacob is allowed an article every 2 months or so
Astros are too talented of a team no to put a run together to get back in contention. Pretty premature to talk about them selling at this juncture.
Right but you have to consider the possibility if they aren’t close in July. Rentals like Pressly and possibly Bregman/Verlander make sense to move.
Team desperately needs an infusion of minor league talent.
Pressly and Verlander would be tough to deal because of their options for 2025. Not sure either has positive trade value.
Tucker would he popular.
Veralnder’s option for 2025 is for $35M and only if he pitches 140 IPs. That’s expensive, but the Mets are paying half of it if Verlander triggers it. If he is pitching well enough for someone to trade for him in July, the remaining $17.5M should not create an issue.
In fact, the NYM need an SP, and are only 0.5 behind SD. No one makes these types of trades, but it would make sense.
In that case yeah he has some trade value for sure.
“In fact, the NYM need an SP”
Adding Verlander is a move a team with championship aspirations makes. That’s not the Mets. Plus they currently have a five man of Sevy, Manaea, Butto, Christian Scott, and Jose Quintana. Senga, Megill, and Peterson will be back over the next month or so. They also have Luchessi at AAA and Blade Tidwell as a possible call-up. “Need an SP” doesn’t really apply to the Mets considering their options and their goals for this year.
Adding Verlander is a move a team with championship aspirations makes.
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Playoff aspirations are championship aspirations.
And the NYM rotation is #23 in ERA.
“Playoff aspirations are championship aspirations.”
No, they aren’t. The Yankees have championship aspirations. The Mets have playoff aspirations. For the Yankees, it’s OK to trade away a bunch of prospects for a year of Soto because they think they can win a championship. For the Mets, trading away prospects for a year+ of Verlander makes zero sense.
“And the NYM rotation is #23 in ERA.”
Look a little deeper, dude. Houser is no longer in the rotation (7.63 ERA). ERA+: Sevy – 128, Manaea – 116, Butto – 129, Scott (albeit in two starts but he’s not going anywhere) – 138. Only Quintana (76 ERA+) has been pitching poorly but he can be replaced by any of the guys I mentioned (Senga, Megill, Peterson, Luchessi, Tidwell). Verlander to the Mets makes literally no sense.
If Bregman doesn’t pick it up, the Astros can take the chance of offering him a QO which he may accept. They’ll be selling low on him at the deadline. Still too early right now for the team to start moving pieces.
I can’t see him accepting a QO. I know he sucks so far this year, but he has a proven track record.
The Astros absolutely will be offering him a QO. There’s almost no chance he signs it though. With what he’s done in his career someone is going to offer a multi year deal. At worst he ll be looking at a higher AAV short term without outs.
I agree though it is to early to be trading anyone. They re 6.5 behind M’s. If they sweep or take 2 of 3 when they play in a few weeks, they re right back in contention. If they start getting it together before then they could lead the division.
With a 4 game series against A’s followed by 3 games against M’s, they ll have an excellent opportunity to right the ship.
@Tigers3232: Seven games? They need at least 30 games to right their ship.
They are 6.5 games back in their division. 3 games against A’ and 4 against M’s coming up(I typed it backwards above). So yes those 7 games coming up in next few weeks could change the direction of their season.
Not if they go 4-3 or 3-4. Why would you expect them to suddenly rip off a winning streak?
With Boras as his agent, he’s going to turn down the Q.O. 100%.
@YankeesCreature: That has nothing to do with Boras. Any free agent who hopes for a multiyear contract will decline the QO, even if he is considering re-signing with the same team.
“Pretty premature to talk about them selling at this juncture.”
Or….
Pretty timely to wonder about them jelling at this juncture.
“Astros are too talented…pretty premature to talk”…I’m not a GM and I don’t have to spin the truth and It’s certainly not too soon for me to declare the Astros dead and their championship window 70% closed. The season is more than a quarter over and Jose Abreu is in the minors and Josh Hader is a roller coaster of inconsistency. The Astros got away from their blueprint of not overpaying for free agents, keeping and developing their own best talent and letting guys who won’t sign reasonable deals walk. When a team is terrible for more than a quarter season, it’s time to let those championship contention dreams go.
So they should just throw in the towel, is that what you’re suggesting mlb?
“Just throw in the towel”…Of course not. Being out of contention happens to many teams and the teams should proceed accordingly, which means keeping your eyes open to potentially trading expiring contracts and any other ways to improve your team for the near future. The Astros need to return to their roots of drafting and developing their own players and scouting for hidden international gems. The Astros didn’t go to 7 str8 ALCS rounds by putting all their eggs in one basket. Signing a fading veteran(Abreu) and a 95 million dollar closer was a serious misstep.
A slow quarter season is a rather short leash. Teams can avoid the pricey FAs when the farm is producing. When it’s slim pickings on the farm, FAs are the main option. Keeping the window open for more than 5 years is an accomplishment. The longer its open, the harder it is for the fans to accept letting that window close.
The Nationals won the WS after a terrible start in 2019 and the Astros made the WS after going 15-30 back in 2005. Things are bad, but they just need a hot streak and all will be well. The key is health.
tigerdoc616: But they’re not more talented than 5 or 6 other AL teams with better records, so it’s unlikely that anything short of maybe a 30-15 run will change their outlook.
False. And that’s enough, Blue Baron.
“False. And that’s enough”…..I’m with the “Baron” on this one. There’s several more talented(and healthy)teams in the AL than the Astros. They’re cooked.
Trojan Toss: That’s enough out of you, Mr Condom.
That’s *enough*, blue baron.
Go pound sand, dolt.
@Baron they have 7 games against A’s and Mariners at the end of this month. They can quickly change their fortunes in those 2 series alone.
As for 5 or 6 more talented teams, there’s no way. O’s, Yankees, and Mariners are the only clearly more talented teams. The Rangers are potentially more talented, but with both teams they have alot of pitching talent idle on IL.
Way too early for that. The offense is okay, and that’s with nothing from Abreu & Bregman. And a healthy rotation of Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Urquidry and a #5 of Blanco or France, can still be formidable.
Pretty sure it was only 2 years ago in mid May the Phillies were stinking out the joint, they fire Girardi and go on to the World Series. No team is out of in May…..unless your the White Sox…or Angels
Those projected playoff odds are some total nonsense. I don’t know how they come up with those numbers.
The Astros had a terrific run. No shame in selling and reloading.
I mean you could try and educate yourself on how these numbers are calculated. Maybe you don’t agree, but there IS some logic behind them.
It’s still nonsense. It’s just guessing and when people present them they present the numbers as fact when it really isnt.
“You could try and educate yourself…IS some logic behind them”…Predictions are like a**holes; everybody has ’em and 99% of the time they totally stink.
We can all make predictions and that’s fun but to present them as factual is what I don’t like. Kinda like prospect lists. It’s fun and something to go on but not factual.
Many are factual. If these made by amateurs, or materially inaccurate, Vegas would go bankrupt.
@Blackpink/Joel They are not arbitrarily tossing a percentage out their sheerly by opinion. It is derived with remaining schedule, current record, current players available, projected return of injured players, etc.
Well the percentage given is in no way a certainty, how that number is derived is by calculating facts and forecasting. The handicappers who calculate these numbers are right far more often than they are wrong. It is why sportsbooks are still in business, they are pretty dxmn good at what they do.
Rangers had little to no chance last year…even in July.
Rangers had little to no chance last year…even in July.
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The Rangers were in 1st place for the entire month of July.
Can’t wait to see Verlander toss 7 shutout innings for the Braves this October!
“Verlander toss 7 shutout innings”…Verlander’s had an excellent regular season career, but he’s very old and his postseason performances have been nothing to write home about.
It’s mostly delusional optimism—just trying to speak it into existence. If they did acquire him he’d more likely give up a crooked number in the 2nd inning and everyone would be cursing AA’s name.
it’s okay braves fans are just drunken srats or old racists anyway
You clearly didnt watch Verlander’s last outing. I happened to catch one inning where he looked like he’d lost steam and just barely got out of it. He walked two players, plunked one, and got the final out on a flyout that could have gone badly for him. I keep reading articles about how he was “vintage” Verlander, but I dunno about that…
Hi kellin – I didn’t watch it, but through 5.2 innings, he gave up 1 hit, zero other baserunners, 7 Ks. Then the sequence you mention, then they trotted him back out for the 7th, K, 2B, FO, pop up.
That’s fairly vintage, I think.
Most honest team in MLB because they admitted to (low-level) “cheating” (debatable) and completely made up for it- in fact way more than completely made up for it and Manletfred owes them a huge apology. Meanwhile, every other team in MLB continues with much much higher level (real) cheating to the present day, all while lying about it.
Most underrated stadium in sports. Most unerrated team/fanbase/history in MLB. Most underrated city east of the Misisipi. The next time they’re referred to as the “Trashtros” or any reference to “cheating” is made in any way about them, theres going to be a problem.
Trojan, in all his many guises, has become by far the most entertaining poster here. To say that he is highly underated would be an extreme understatement.
You mean low tech cheating right? because a trash can is not really high tech. manfred should have made them be a triple A team the following year and should stripped them of the title.
“It remains…inconclusive as to whether the ‘banging’ sounds were coincidental or were truly attributable to dishonest play, especially with regards to the lack of true outlier performances by Astros players”
-Commissioners Report, in conjunction with the United States Congress and MLBPeeA
You’re welcome.
TT, “It remains….”
A blurb of absolute literary genius. Well done.
Can you imagine how deep it would have gone, had the league done something like you suggested? Only AAA teams would be left once as the Astros players finished throwing everyone else in the league under the bus.
Once the Astros players illuminated. Not throw under the bus.
Houston might be east of the Misisipi but it’s not east of the Mississippi.
quite possibly the most unerrated post west of the Manletfred
Bregman wouldn’t fetch a bag of balls.
Love for Houston or trying to sell a 1.5m condo in Houston, and tryign to afford the same lifestyle at the same clip, on a home that of the same region and SQFT will be 5m 🙂 Because the Orioles WOULD be chasing him like flies the second his name was mentioned..in July
Astros have a cupcake homestand the next two weeks.
7 vs the A’s
3 vs the Angels
3 vs the Brewers
If they can go 10-3 in this homestand, they are right back in the mix.
Two of those teams have better records than them and the other team is only half a game worse than they are.
I would -love- to see the Angel trounce the Astros. I’m not hopeful, but I can dream?
The Brewers are a “cupcake”?
Not only do two of those teams have a better record than them but they are also notoriously bad at home.
I hope as was said with fact we have 4 with Oakland, 3 with Angels, and 3 with Brewers at home then a day off. Then go to Oakland for 3 and Seattle for 4 is pretty much our remaining May schedule. Then come home for the Twins to start June although one game of that series is in May. If we can do something with Oakland, Angels, Brewers and Oakland again I will take it. But if we do not. Not sure what our rotation will look like.
I don’t see Garcia or McCullers back until July whether by deadline who knows. What will both of them have. McCullers has not PITCHED in 2 or 3 seasons. I mean really pitched. In that season we won the WS he was shaky although came in for September and that one game in WS he blew. I know Verlander had TJ and came back strong. With Garcia not sure. But if we are out of it could they take spots in rotation perhaps. But we shall see what rest of May looks like. If by June we are further out then who knows.
Players I really don’t see making big strides: Bregman I do not know if will get going. I hope he does but just can’t say. Chas McCormick will have to see on as well. Has not impressed yet. Abreu will he return to team as he is with team through next season.
I am sure Crane will keep Espada and coaches etc. He loves him Dana too. Myself I think too they are all issues. Compared to going back to Luhnow as GM and Click was better than Dana but not as good as Luhnow even with what happened 7 years ago. Hinch was good with the team and Dusty. They had the team and the team wanted to play although last season under Dusty they came out slow but still went to the playoffs.
This season will depend on rest of May and how they look starting June if out of it even more then I think they will be out totally. Unless other teams ahead start collapsing.
But we shall see what Houston will be come June and after that. I am a fan but probably first year in a long while not watching. I just can’t see these implosions and more.
I hope for the best for all players and that. But when get on a hot roll you can come back down to earth and crash.
I am enjoying seeing the Houston Cheaters at the bottom. Fans outside the Houston market hate this team because they got away with cheating. They should’ve been treated like the Chicago black Sox, but now money dictates differently.
But major leaguers all respect them for not taking down the remaining 29 teams, that were all doing the same thing.