Red Sox Place Triston Casas On 10-Day Injured List

Suit, you received direct quotes from Bogey, including to audio playable of him doing interviews, where he said it was well reported what the sox offers to him prior to free agency were, and, every major (and minor) source reported the same $90m numbers, representing 3 remaining years on his extension at 20m/yr, and a 4th year option on the existing deal that would vest at 20m based on PAs being converted to a fully vested year, plus $10m thrown on top.

No alternate figures were reported.

So, Suit, your exact counter argument was because Bogey himself never said the words ’90 million dollars’ that that meant nothing.

Never-minding that Boston, Bloom, or anyone associated with them never once said the reports were inaccurate, or, didn’t fully encompass what was discussed or any other BS excuse to deflect during intense negative media publicity and bad press, not to mention enraged fans- something that hurts you when dealing with future free agents and their representatives mind you.

In the world of sports and contract negotiations that’s closer then you usually ever get, and, certainly goes well beyond the concept of ‘reasonable doubt.’

Suit: here’s my thinking on Devers vs Casas at 1B.

The season is young, but, Casas actually leads Devers with 2 scored* errors to 1.

Many of Devers scored* errors are split almost exactly even between fielding and throwing, BUT, the majority of his throwing errors are to 1B. I attribute those to two factors – obviously one is a poorer rushed throw, but, a BETTER 1B saves many of those throws as well, and that comes from the eye test seeing both sides of those plays. But, for scoring, it doesn’t matter if a better defender could’ve saved an error, itsnchargednto the guy making the bad throw.

When tossing to the 2b/ss covering, Devers actually does pretty well. However, Casas DOES himself still create errors throwing to 2B.

Here’s the theory:

A 3B is responsible to field many more balls than a 1B. Here’s an interesting (old) read on distributions, but, pull tendencies of rh and lh hitters, all that havent changed much and 1b vs 3b shift hasnt changed much.. and, the width of territory a 3B vs 1B typically is responsible to cover as a percentage of the fair territory by angle:

tht.fangraphs.com/infield-defense-mdash-back-to-ba…

So, I think Devers improved arm accuracy on short throws, 90- ft between bases but has been demonstrated worse 127+ ft across the diamond (remember, it’s more likely a throw to the adjacent base, excluding home, you’re standing closer to it [ie away from foul line] where as across the diamond you’re likely deeper in the hole on the OF grass than the base itself.)

What’s the net effects of a 1B move? Responsible for fewer balls hit that direction, statistically proven. Responsible for fewer degrees of coverage on the range of balls hit. Less fielding chances means less errors. Shorter throws, fewer throws, to 2B also means less errors.

If you had a strong fielding 3B, with an accurate arm, Devers should have a decent chance at catching the throws, again, with few errors.

At this rate, I figure it doesn’t hurt to *try*… we know how bad Casas is at picking throws, and we know how bad Devers is at 3B. And we know the infield is largely responsible for having the horrific unearned run differential.

Why not shake it up? It can’t get worse. And while Casas is out, you’re not going to hurt much to try it, right?

Suit: here’s the other thing, not to sound too mercenary and all but baseball *is* a business…

With Henry being how he is with payroll lately, another benefit is suppressing Casas’ salary through arbitration. His value is his bat, pure and simple. And arb awards to pure DHs lag position players.

Casas isn’t adding value with his glove. He was a -4 DRS last year. If you prefer the stat cast data, he was -10 OAA, and a -8 on their FRV which is supposed to encompass everything from fielding to range to throwing. Either way he’s generally not *projected* to bring a positive value added result with his glove on any particular defensive play.

So why pay him extra for it as if he does?

Devers is a sunk cost. So I’d advocate if you *can* you go and get a plus defender with good arm at 3B, assuming *if* Devers can work out ok at 1B. Anything even close to what casas grades at, even if devers is slightly worse, is a HUGE upgrade because of what you change on the left side of the infield.

Then you keep Casas bat and save money with him at DH, net positive defense and unearned run potential. If Devers is stuck at 3B? Get a plus defender at 1B, reduce the number of errors both at 1B and on picked throws. Still shove Casas to dh, and still see some upgrade.

Suit: I’m not sure you’d even want to try Casas in the OF.

1) again, for a bat-only guy, you put him in DH and keep his salary down in arb years, especially when he sounds like he wants gold golver money for the 1b position as a guy who is a below average defender.

2) Looking long term you’ve got abreu, duran, and rafaela as young controlled OFers with Anthony and others coming along in the farm.

3) You’re also currently stuck with Yoshida who is getting off to a slower start as a DH, but, I expected as much from some offseason posts I made delving into his splits batting as an OFer and as a DH – not everyone produces as well as DH as when they’re playing in the field as well.

Obviously there’s a LOT of youth to sort through and see how things play out in an extended look, but, trying to force DH-types into field roles is how the roster got so imbalanced to begin with.

We can only hope Breslow doesn’t allow that trend to continue