April 10: The Red Sox have announced Rafaela’s extension. It’s an eight-year deal covering the 2024-31 seasons and also contains a previously unreported club option for a ninth season in 2032.
Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports the annual breakdown. Rafaela receives a $2MM signing bonus before earning salaries of $1MM in 2024, $1MM in 2025, $2MM in 2026, $3.5MM in 2027, $5.5MM in 2028, $7.5MM in 2029, $10.5MM in 2030 and $13MM in 2031. The club option is valued at $16MM and comes with a $4MM buyout.
April 8: The Red Sox have agreed to an extension with outfielder/second baseman Ceddanne Rafaela, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. It’s an eight-year, $50MM pact for the MVP Sports Group client, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (as relayed by Ian Browne of MLB.com). Rafaela is the second young, core player the team has locked up in the past few weeks; Boston also signed righty Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM deal in late March.
Rafaela, 23, has ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects entering each of the past two seasons. He made his big league debut in 2023 won the center field job in Boston with a strong spring showing in 2024. Through his first 124 big league plate appearances, Rafaela is a .239/.282/.389 hitter, though his minor league track record features far more promising numbers. Rafaela split the majority of the 2023 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A, where he logged a combined .302/.349/.520 slash with 20 homers, 31 doubles, three triples and 36 stolen bases (in 49 tries).
Listed at just 5’9″ and 152 pounds, Rafaela is small in stature but certainly not short on talent. Scouting reports laud him as a potential plus center fielder; Baseball America and MLB.com both call him a Gold Glove-caliber defender there, and The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote that Rafaela “has a chance to be the most valuable outfield defender in baseball” when ranking him 32nd among all MLB prospects this spring. Rafaela couples that defensive upside with plus speed and enough power to project for double-digit home runs in the big leagues, even if he’s more of a gap hitter than a true slugger.
While Rafaela struck out as a generally manageable 21% clip in the upper minors last season, he doesn’t have a particularly patient approach at the plate. He walked in just 5.4% of his plate appearances last season — his second straight minor league campaign with a walk rate around 5%. He’s drawn a free pass in just 4.8% of his big league plate appearances to date. Barring an evolution in his approach at the dish, Rafaela could post middling on-base percentages in the majors, but his defensive prowess, speed and power contributions should offset any potential OBP deficiency.
As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the pre-arbitration extensions for Rafalea and Bello mark a notable change in philosophy from a Red Sox club that has eschewed long-term deals for players who are relatively unproven in the big leagues. From 2012 through 2021, the Red Sox didn’t give out a single pre-arb extension. Their 2022 deal with righty Garrett Whitlock (four years, $18.75MM with two club options) was their first extension for a player prior to arbitration eligibility since Clay Buchholz way back in 2011.
The Sox haven’t shied away from extensions entirely, but long-term deals for Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello were far more expensive deals that came after those players had solidified themselves as big leaguers worth annual values of $20MM or more. Even the original Bogaerts deal, which was considered wildly club-friendly, was valued at six years and $120MM.
Perhaps the eventual loss of Bogaerts, coupled with high-profile departures of Mookie Betts, Jon Lester and others over the years, pushed Sox ownership to become more aggressive on early-career extensions. Maybe they’ve become increasingly dissatisfied with pricey free-agent deals that haven’t gone to plan (e.g. Trevor Story, David Price, Lucas Giolito). Or perhaps they simply looked at the rising price for young talent around the league and opted to become more proactive. Whatever the reason, they’re beginning to lock up some promising and affordable contributors to join Devers in comprising the long-term core.
Rafaela is just one of several extension candidates on the Red Sox, and with two deals now hammered out, it seems increasingly plausible others could yet follow. Most notably, first baseman Triston Casas and righty Tanner Houck have both spoken about their openness to extensions. Other pre-arb players who could feasibly be considered for long-term deals include left fielder Jarren Duran and righty Kutter Crawford.
During an eclipse? Seems like something Bloom would have pulled.
You’ve heard of TDS, theres a serious case of BDS in Boston. Everything somehow relates back to Bloom.
What is tds
Hotdog – He means trump derangement syndrome. And I say let’s leave the politics out of it.
Absolutely nothing baseball related
“Absolutely nothing baseball related”
Kind of like bringing up Bloom and an Eclipse when a player is signed that had nothing to do with Bloom. “Absolutely nothing baseball related”.
Lighten up Francis. Perhaps it was a joke?
“it was a joke”
Whats the joke? Did Bloom sign a lot of players during solar anomalies? Im at a loss. If it was funny, I’d have given you a thumbs up.
Never said it was a good joke. Maybe I was poking fun at those who have such huge issues with bloom’s tenure in Boston?
“Maybe”
You dont know?
In fairness TDS can apply both ways, I believe.
You might even say he’s over the moon about his extension.
njbirds – Blue Moon Odom and Jorge Soler need to meet … somebody make it happen!
Maybe they met at the eclipse!
So if the Red Sox have a good year, as I think they might, can Red Sox fans give Bloom credit for 98% of it?
Your joke isn’t lost on me, but this isn’t a bloom guy. He was under dombrowski and honestly neither have much to do with it.
I was half serious but that also means I was half serious. Fans of all teams like to give credit, or not give credit, to PoBOs/GMs to fit their personal narratives.
Tang – I don’t follow you, what’s your reasoning for not giving credit to Dombrowski? He signed Rafaela as a free agent, of course he deserves credit.
Just like he deserves credit for signing Brayan Bello and drafting Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran.
The people here who insisted Dombrowski left a barren farm system have been proven to be full of crap.
Agree Fever Dombrowski was very shrewd, why he won at every stop and still does. He did tho go thru over half the say, top 20 kids in the sox system from late ’15 until the Sale deal in dec 2016. 3 deals, the Tyler Thornburg, Kimbrell and Sale wiped away many more than maybe should have, especially even at the time the thornburg deal.
Dombrowski, a lot of the time treated kids like fungible goods, which prospects really are and most failed, just like the top talent in the kimbrell deal.
Because he’s not the guy scouting them. He’s just the boss that signs the dotted line.
Tang – True, but he was the one who approved the signing. Scouts make recommendations all the time, the POBO has to Sift through them and approve or reject.
He’s usually the one who hired the scout too.
In this case it’s more than just the scout. International signings have been overseen by Romero for a while. He’s the guy that should get credit for all of these guys.
@Fever, DD early on made his name as the head of player development for the Expos, building a strong farm, and then went to the Marlins and rebuilt their team. What separates him is some GMs are prospect huggers while others will trade any and all for the quick fix. He can nothing build and trade. I think Henry gets impatient and pulls the plug on his head of baseballl ops too quickly.
Tang – I wouldn’t say all the credit, but sure Romero deserves some of the credit.
I don’t think you’d want to give him all the credit for international signings, and then give him all the blame when there’s a long dry spell of talent like there was under Bloom … now would you?
Lord – I agree 100% on Dombrowski, he has an excellent eye for talent …. not just with acquiring players, but also with knowing which ones to hold and which ones to cut loose. When you look back at all the prospects he traded while he was with the Red Sox, it’s rather impressive that none of them turned into another Schilling or Bagwell or even Brady Anderson.
I have to disagree on Henry, 4 years should be enough time to turn a team around or at least make great strides. I’ve been saying this for years, neither Bloom nor Breslow had the great mentors that Theo had – that is a huge factor for inexperienced senior management in any organization.
Henry was most definitely impatient when it comes to payroll budget. He went from biggest spender in MLB to 13th (now 12th) in just 4 years, and wow did he pay a price for it.
Exactly, Romero is one of the Red Sox most valuable assets.
Too many variables to know why there was a gap, but I know we’ve done well with position players under his watch. I’m inclined to give him at least most of the credit.
Fever. Feel the need to remind everyone here that the brady Anderson in baltimore wasn’t the 1 traded by Boston. not the skinny kid, who bulked (probably with help) over 1 season, just like another kid saw 1st hand as well for Detroit (lakeland farm team) name of nelson simmons.
Many got scott free away with free muscles back then and am as sure as can be Anderson was 1, without ever actually seeing the needle go in.
john – You are absolutely 100% correct on Brady, most likely Palmeiro influenced him to take PED’s.
I never heard of Simmons, looking at his MLB numbers I can see why.
Fever. Simmons Miracle Muscles over 1 offseason drew the ire of (then) detroit manager Sparky Anderson. Remember these 40y on how upset he was at Simmons, then 1 of the top prospects in the game. He lost all speed and mobility, plus his bat slowed afterwards.
could always count on Sparky for great quotes and detroit having ST was (still is) nice way to see each spring how well/poor they look after leaving the FSL.
Whine time.. Shame Boston left twin city Winter Haven 30 odd y ago.. Was always nice having 2 A ball and MLB ST within 5m of each other.
Those things never happen. Even with Tito and Theo, the “fans” that decided they hated them wouldn’t change their minds if they won ten WS in a row.
Welcome to Boston.
No because the pitching is much better with an overhauled coaching staff and new approach from GM. Bloom gets credit for drafting but could not put a pitching development team together
Shoman – The whole world agrees with you on that. Bloom was publicly vocal about his analytics-driven approach of developing only position players and acquiring pitchers only via free agency, trades and mostly dumpster diving.
Year after year I pointed out how many pitchers performed well before arriving in Boston and after leaving, but not during their time in a Red Sox uniform. Between Cora and Bush it was a disaster. Without question bringing on Bailey and Breslow is a big boost to the Red Sox pitching staff.
My only gripe with this take Fever is I think you’re a little too harsh on Cora in assigning him a notable piece of the blame for the staff in recent years. Are his decisions always perfect, no, not trying to argue they are, but we gotta remember too that as the manager he has to work within the confines of what the GM gives him. Which under Bloom was hardly anything.
Dirty – That’s fair, I’ve always said none of us has access to the inner workings of the Sox hierarchy and I’m sure some things were dictated to Cora.
In terms of the pitching staff, I’m going by the premise Cora as manager dictates the usage. I doubt the front office is micro-managing him, but there’s no way to prove that.
Cora has often said, give him great players and the results will be better. Well sure ….. but then, what’s the point of paying a manager millions if he can’t get good results from below average or even average players?
went from trade bait to cornerstone real quick
pohle – Seems like ownership believes locking up the young unproven players will make fans tolerate the lack of free agent spending.
As always, time will tell. I’m really curious to see the deets.
Fever, his floor makes me fear JBJ – elite glove, dominated AAA every time he went back down, but never caught up to MLB pitching except for streaks…
Can ceddane be better than that? I HOPE SO.
GASox – Well said as always!
I’m really rooting for him, I always root for the little guy.
@GA and FPG
These kind of signings are no-brainers.
Bello at 9.2 a year is great. 10 mil gets you Kluber or Gio. Bet on the upside, and if it fails, is it any worse than 10 mil dumpster dives?
Extend all the kids like Atlanta does, trade away for popcorn if it fails.
At an annual rate of 6.25 mil per year, if his floor is JBJ, then, it’s not a bad investment. If he turns out to be the next Scott Kingery, that’s a different story.
DBH – If the Sox spent like a big market team, sure I’d agree with you and sign ’em all. Unfortunately they spend like a mid-market team which means Straw-esque mistakes hurt them quite a bit.
As for the Braves, they are smart enough to get at least one great season out of their youngins before locking them up longterm.
Acuna put up a .917 OPS, won ROY and finished 12th in MVP voting before they signed him to his current contract.
Strider put up a 2.67 ERA and 0.995 WHIP and was ROY runnerup before the Braves signed him longterm.
Bello and Rafaela aren’t even close to producing at that level yet.
FPG. Bello at 9 mils is a great deal even if rated at a number 3. And if Ceddanne never improves the batting, he is still a steal 6. And that is even before inflation sets in.
Play the kids, see what they will agree to, then spend to fill holes later on.
I didn’t like the off season either, but the money other teams dropped on 30 somethings with iffy histories was silly. This is the way to go.
BtW, Dalbs just got demoted to AAA!
Besides, Judge is making 40 per. Sox just got a good starter and outstanding CF for 15. Sox can sign a lot of youth still for the other 25 mils, bro!
DBH – don’t forget we’ve got a massive overpay in Devers before throwing stones about Judge’s 40….
SO true, GA. I have always thought that the Sox should use the power of being a big market by outbidding for guys like O’Neil by a mil.or 2 and extending our own current stars.
DBH – They didn’t say who is taking Bobby’s spot? Hopefully it’s Grissom and not Ref.
GASox – Just checked ticket availability only 15 hours before game time, there’s a TON of unsold seats! You reap what you sow John Henry.
I think if Bello can beat Burnes that would go a long way in convincing fans the Sox could finally pull out of the basement this year.
Keyword “could”.
DBH – They used to do that before 2019.
DBH – To be fair all they did was push out the immediate cost so their AAV is much higher without solid evidence of the players being deserving of the money. It could work out great but there is lots of risk considering 2 years of patience that could have rendered more certainty at basically the same cost through the same year and then dropping a few more years on top of it if they are all-star quality. Premature, but hopefully effective.
With pitchers it can be forgiven but position players have not really proved they can get big money, unless they are and have been truly elite.
I do not deny the risk, bro. Injury could take one of these guys out, no doubt. There is good risk and there is bad. I prefer this kind of risk.
TF – Welcome back! Everyone missed you and has been asking about you!
Great post, yes as soon as I saw the Sox 2024 payroll go from 14th to 12th yesterday I knew it was because of the extension.
One aspect nobody has mentioned, giving the extensions now instead of in 2025 or 2026 lowers the AAV and since they were so far below the first threshold this year …. why not begin taking the lower hit this year?
But it’s the old chicken and the egg situation …. did they decide to do these two extensions because they lied and never had any intention of signing good free agents?
Or would they have delayed the extensions if they had signed Monty, Snell or one of the other good free agents?
Because they always lie, I will go with the first scenario.
DBH – I think most of us are fine with extending players after they have proven themselves at the major league level. It’s not just a matter of injury, it’s also performance. The possibility of poor performance goes down quite a bit after they’ve proven to be a quality major league player.
I guess my question is, if you view signing a .672 OPS guy with only 38 MLB games under his belt to be a good risk … what do you consider a bad risk? Giving a AAA player a $50M contract?
@FpG, the globe says Romy
DBH – Oh. Well alrighty then.
It’s all about cost certainty. The Bosox are trying to by up all the real estate surrounding Fenway with the intent of transforming into an attraction for the ages.. Knowing future costs, and keeping short term expeditures as low as possible would seemingly allow them to pull it off. It’s a long term gambit that will pay dividends down the road. Investing in the future at the cost of the present.
Bobby – The $1.6B development known as Fenway Corners is already approved. However, I haven’t seen any funding details yet so we don’t know how much it will cost FSG.
Regardless, fielding a perennial last place team by drastically reducing payroll doesn’t help pay for Fenway Corners.
Want proof? Last year Red Sox organic revenue dropped a whopping $30M despite their payroll being lowered to 13th.
As the saying goes, it takes money to make money.
Sometimes you need to play the long game and that’s why they are billionaires and we are not. If they develop and sign his young players then this string of bad seasons will be forgotten. They will save money and have a competitive team for a while. Despite what most red Sox fans believe, sometimes taking a step back isn’t a bad thing. I don’t defend how they’ve handled themselves, but if their plan all along was to develop a young team and lock them up, them I’m fine with the temporary losing.
Tang – Some people here thought Bloom had a “master plan” of developing a young team and locking them up.
Obviously he didn’t, because John Henry fired him.
If anything this ownership has proven they can’t be trusted. They say once MAT takes over as established players, the team will spend on complementary free agents and go Full Throttle. That’s hardly reassuring, considering a) We have no clue if they will become solid MLB players and b) Ownership has repeatedly lied.
Ownership has lied and that’s hurt their image. However, I don’t think the thought process is hard to see. They didn’t like giving out bad contracts anymore, dombrowski wasn’t on board and they fired him. In comes bloom to keep them somewhat competitive while they build the farm. He did a mediocre job, but what got him fired was the complete lack of pitching developed. In comes breslow and they focus almost exclusively on building the pitching pipeline. Now they are signing young guys that they like and are biding time in hopes of drafting our trading for young pitching. I didn’t hate the plan, but the execution has been horrible.
Fever, who says Bloom had ownership consent to sign anyone long term? Going back then who would have been signed? Chavis? Dalbec? I might be missing someone obvious but that was when the DD cubbord was bare.
Dewey, even of the guys DD traded, the question becomes *who* was worth a long term extension?
The ‘DD left the cupboard bare’ line gets so old, because, he didn’t exactly trade away talent you wanted to keep. But, he DID promote guys early rather than leave them down if they could help the mlb club… AA? AAA? Didn’t matter. And if he didn’t like something he saw that scouts mentioned to him, thats where the trades came in.
Tang – If you ask many respected posters here, they will all point out it wasn’t the bad contracts that turned John Henry into a cheapskate …. it was Cora’s torpedoing of the defending World Champions in 2019 with a virtually non-existent ST and “let’s wait until June before we try to win” approach to the regular season.
As for the reason Bloom got fired, if you believe what John Henry and Sam Kennedy and Tom Werner said it was the horrific constant last place finishes that did Bloom in.
Now if you think Henry and Kennedy and Werner were all lying …. well, that’s certainly possible if not likely.
dewey – I don’t believe I ever mentioned Bloom’s ability to sign longterm contracts (assuming you mean homegrown talent, not free agents).
Ummm …. who could have been signed? How about Mookie and Xander? He did sign Devers longterm, much to the chagrin of some here. LOL!
How about Houck after his strong 2021 season? He did sign Whitlock longterm too. Luckily he didn’t sign Dugie, but in 2020-2021 that was definitely something that was being discussed.
The bad seasons will be forgotten in time, ‘Tang, but that’s not the point. I think most of us can understand that most teams’ core players and competitive windows are going to come and go in waves, that’s fine, I can accept that not every year is going to go our way.
What’s unacceptable to me and something I will never forgive FSG for is the way they treated and ultimately allowed guys like Lester, Betts, and Bogaerts to depart and finish their careers elsewhere. Those guys were special and should’ve spent their entire playing careers in Boston. Call me a boomer but I am a baseball fan to watch and root for the players, not for business development or high level statistical analysis. I enjoy having a decent understanding of those things because being moderately knowledgeable about them can enhance the experience of being a fan, but it’s not why anyone is a fan. Somewhere along the way the overly-obsessed with analytics crowd seems to have forgotten that, and the ones calling the shots on Yawkey Way are sorely mistaken if they think they can just buy their way back into my good graces by stumbling into an unexpectedly good season once in awhile because their dumpster dives happen to work out – especially after long inactive winters spent getting lied to and gaslit about “full throttles” and prioritizing pitching upgrades that never came. No. Not gonna happen. I have zero faith that this ownership/front office will ever do what it takes to keep around the players who should be Red Sox lifers and at this point it’s way too far gone to be able to rebuild that trust. That is the big picture, not losing now to try and win later.
I’m no fan of Cora and 2019 certainly didn’t help. Also, yes bloom failed to produce a consistently competitive team and that was largely due to pitching. I didn’t see how your answer is any different than mine. Also, the owners are liars. And I do believe that Werner had a different opinion on how the off season should have been handled, but Henry squashed it.
Tang – No worries, we are good.
As for Werner, it’s one of those things we will never know for certain.
I’ve read reports from insiders stating the entire Sox front office was expecting John Henry to finally open up his dusty wallet and spend enough to be competitive, then everything changed. Maybe the financials came in worse than expected, maybe something happened with FSG that created the need for a cash grab, who knows.
The only thing I can say with certainty, if Larry was still Prez/CEO he definitely wouldn’t stand for Henry going cheap.
Dirty – Fantastic post!!!
Only one tiny correction ….. Yawkey Way doesn’t exist and never did (according to John Henry).
It’s now back to Jersey Street ;O)
Dewey – The DD cupboard was never bare. Casas was there, Houck was there, Crawford was there and many others.
We had Mookie, Benny, Devers, Bogaerts, JD. Six legitimate all-stars. You need some cheap guys like JBJ, Vazquez, even Moreland to off set the higher priced guys. The team won 108 and Cora mistakes took down the 2019 Red Sox and DD but he left plenty behind and they were NOT Dalbec or Chavis, they were both excellent young pitchers and hitters Duran.
Suggesting DD’s cupboard was ever bare is simply inaccurate. What Bloom started in 2020 ruined the Red Sox. DD provided several years of quality minor leaguers to give Boston a chance to rebound. If only Breslow could have provided MLB talent in 2024 beyond O’Neill.
Also, had Breslow chose to use a more acceptable approach to signing young players he should have stayed away from all players younger than ARB 1. At ARB 1 you get 3 years of arb and based at that point in time you can offer more than 4 years going forward since the player has all-star potential. As it stands now, lots of money has been wasted, the proof of excellence hasn’t happened and you still have a huge over pay for Devers, Yoshida and Story. The only smart thing so far has been Breslow guessing right about O’Neill. Giolito was a disaster. Giving up Sale looks to be a disaster. Grissom cost $17MM as a pre-arb 1. That’s a lot of bad choices but I still love watching the kids play and think many have a decent future if Breslow can figure out how to balance his payroll.
16-16 is the projection through April and then a huge drop off as the good teams play Boston. Maybe, the premature payments of Bello and Rafaela will alowl them and Houck and Crawford to play relaxed and develop faster.. It will be interesting to watch.
It’ll always be Yawkey to me, unless they rename it for someone deserving like a David Ortiz or Pedro Martinez of course.
I guess the difference between what you and I are saying is that you seem to be more or less content with the overall vision, just not the execution. I hate the vision and could not be any more disgusted by their implementation of it.
This never, at any point, had to be a full on rebuild. Arguably it barely even needed to be a partial rebuild. The pieces were all right there, graduated from our farm system and present on our major league roster. The issue was never a bare cabinet or a dry pipeline, the issue was Henry woke up one morning and decided he wasn’t going to pay the cost it takes to keep a winning core together to try and keep winning. He’s spent the subsequent five years trying to piss down our backs and tell us it’s raining, though we seem to be in agreement there so I won’t keep beating the dead horse.
TF – Excellent post as always!! We are all happy to see you back!
Dirty – Me as well.
And don’t get me started on all the corporate venue name changes, I am glad that hasn’t happened yet with Fenway.
Fever – don’t give Henry any ideas, soon you will start seeing some advertising for ‘The Fenway Experience presented by Moderna, get your tickets today!’
I mean, not necessarily.
Nice lock-up.
Congrats to Sedan.
No attempt to look at how to spell his name?
I don’t know. “Sedan” is a nice nickname for someone with that speed.
I know how it is spelled but this is how it is pronounced. His first name isn’t Curaçaoan and his middle name is Chipper. Look I’ve met white kids from the suburbs named Hemi. It’s a bad look overall.
I think we should be calling him Chipper.
I think it’s actually pronounced saydon, but it’s weirder to say.
How about Casas now?
Steve – They tried a few months ago, Casas said they lowballed him. I’m sure they will try again at some point, plenty of time to do so.
Casas never said they lowballed him.
He kind of did. He said it wasn’t anything enticing.
he kind of didn’t but that’s ok
Tang – Thank you.
Forgive Acel, he’s always trying to stir up drama with false accusations.
Acel – Entice is another word for tempt.
It wasn’t enticing, which means it didn’t even tempt him.
Which means lowball.
If it was a competitive offer, Casas would have been enticed.
Get it?
Fever: you cause more drama in these comment sections than a telenovela. But enticing isn’t the same as low ball no matter how you want to spin it. your own interpretation isn’t fact
@Fever Pitch Guy
You’re one to talk. You’re always making assumptions about others.
@Fever Pitch Guy
Why are you so rude to others who disagree with you?
acel – You’ve got more L’s over the past few days than Laverne DeFazio has on her outfits! (Google it)
“It wasn’t enticing”
That doesn’t mean it was a low ball offer. Could mean structure of the contract isn’t what they’re looking for
Juan Soto probably thought the nationals 440 mill offer wasn’t enticing with how quickly he shot it down. Cause he knew he’d have larger offers in the 500, 600, 700 range. Doesn’t mean 440 mill was a low ball offer, just meant that they didn’t find it to be an acceptable number to forgo testing the free agent market (enticing).
We don’t know what has been or is offered. So today “it isn’t enticing” means its low ball offers is a bit far fetched
Could be Red Sox are offering market value or top 10 money but Casas wants above market value or top 5 money.
Could be casas wants 15 years Red Sox are only offering 7 or 8 and the years portion isn’t enticing cause he wants a life time guarantee
Could be Casas wants opt outs in his contract so he can enter the free agent market before he hits 30 for another pay day and Red Sox are refusing to include opt outs.
Could be a deferred money issue where Casas wants some money deferred but Red Sox don’t want to do that.
There’s so many variables in play to suggest it’s only a low ball offer issue is pretty simple minded.
Fever: another dated reference. I’m sure that Joke would have killed in the 70s. Just admit you’re wrong and move on.
acel – The joke helped you learn something, so another win for me :O)
White – I get what you’re saying and generally agree, but then that would mean both Casas and his agent are dumb to turn down a fair market (or better) offer. I don’t know much about his agent, but while Casas is eccentric he’s definitely not dumb.
Here’s his exact words which eliminated some of the possibilities you suggested:
audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/casas-explains-how-…
“I’m low maintenance. I don’t need a lot. So I’ve got a small family. I don’t need much.”
He reminds me a lot of Bronson Arroyo, same laid back unique personality.
And he’s the exact opposite of Mookie, who always believed it was his obligation to get every dollar possible.
@chaim – low self-esteem
I didn’t bother googling it. I just knew based on your posts and general lack of sense of humor that it would be a dated reference. you don’t occupy any space in my head as compared to the amount that I seem to take up in yours. So that’s multiple Ls for you.
On that note I’ve given you enough attention.
@Fever Pitch Guy
How about be respectful for once?
acel – As usual, we ain’t buying what you’re selling! Haha!
No apology yet for being wrong with the “no change to the current contract when years are added” crap?
I’ve given you plenty of time, man up.
That space I occupy in your head gets bigger every day. Just admit you’re wrong and take the L.
@Fever Pitch Guy How about apologize for trolling him? You don’t have to apologize for being wrong… for being arrogant about being right, that’s more to apologize for
Watched him live yesterday & he’s in much better shape this year as he’s removed the baby fat but he needs to work on his defense !
1b fall off trees. Screw him
I agree with your first point, but I don’t see why that would make any of us want to have sex with Tristan Casas.
I think Casas just wants more money. So maybe this off-season if he had a good season
Joe – I agree, Casas needs to put up more than just a good half season to prove he is deserving.
Sounds like they aren’t close yet. I bet they get there in the off season though.
Casas has implied that he wants to bet on himself before he entertains an extension offer.
YBC – Does that mean he is willing to wait until free agency as Mookie was before the Dodgers dropped that massive offer on his lap?
Basically if a young player isn’t locked longterm before his final pre-arb season, there’s less incentive to sign an extension because arb salaries can be quite high.
Casas has a 30 hr season under his belt. If the Sox think they are buying out any of his FA seasons then that extension better be in the 9 digit raise. The opportunity of getting him on a cheap deal has left town.
mull – If you’re basing your assumption on a 30-homer season, good luck with that …. because Casas has never hit more than 24 homers in a season.
I suspect Casas is basing his hopes on that 30 HR valuation, and the Red Sox want to see it before they pay for it. Both sides of that make sense to me…
Some here know, I question Casas’ priorities as well as his clubhouse fit as his career progresses.
From choosing to ruffle the feathers and waste time on the sunbathing and fingernails over working on learning to play better defense than t-ball kids do…
Another bad defender isn’t getting Devers money, but, you know thats what he expects. Just like JDM’S contract impacted mookie, Bogey, etc.
GASox – There was an article not too long ago describing how Red Sox players were livid at Casas last year.
Whenever they saw him napping or sunbathing on the field with just shorts on, players would say out loud “Are you f’ng kidding me??”
His antics are fine as long as he produces, but if he doesn’t produce it could get really ugly in the clubhouse because things like that are less tolerable when the guy isn’t producing and when the team isn’t winning.
He’s got the raw tools, hopefully this works out. Looking forward to the deets.
Off of less than 100abs? Red Sox Nation!
This is when guys should be getting signed. It’s also a far better way for ownership to use their money. Some young guys will flop, but it’s pennies lost compared to blowing hundreds of millions on predictably bad free agent signings.
Tang It
This is when guys should be getting signed.
=========================
Exactly. If you wait until kids prove themselves, the cost is astronomically higher. Plus, extensions are largely a bet on character. You want to sign kids who want to be the first one at the ball park.
Still questionable if he can and will hit enough…
Lot of swing and miss on an extension with Rafaella, but can see 1 for like 6y and 30-40m being enough risk reward if he “just” ends up as another JBJ type. Good team value if he learns better pitch recognition.
Why not just control him for the next 6 or 7 at near minimum wage plus Arb then? This has to be 8+ years, with or without Options. Imo, o/c
I suppose it’s a case of hedging their bets that if he takes off and produces like in the minors they’ll get some cheap, big offensive seasons with and explosion in arbitration salary. Absolutely best case dream scenario is he turns into a Mookie Betts type. More likely scenario is another Kike Hernandez type with the absolute worst case scenario being Scott Kingery
Ought to be buying out (options?) a couple years of free agency. If you lock players up through he age of 31-32 these days you get most of their career production,
Just not a fan of these extensions for players who are entirely unproven. Someone is going to be unhappy here either the team or the player 5 years from now.
Pink – Did you see Acuna asked for a re-do on his contract.
These players can really act so entitled …. “I gambled and lost, but I still want the free agent size money”.
Yeah, right.
I don’t think they should be gambling is my point. Contracts like this all but guarantee that one side will be unhappy in the future and I don’t like contracts like that. Yes for every Acuna there is a Strider but why not just pay them fairly?
Isn’t what the two sides agree on the most fair?
Pink – I am fully agreeing with you. Myself and many others have always felt it’s wise to wait until at least the final year of pre-arb before discussing extensions, because the few bucks that’s saved now isn’t worth the additional 2-3 years of risk.
My initial response to your post was only pointing out that even if this longterm extension is a big win for the Sox, they still may be pressured to re-do Rafaela’s contract in a few years …. which makes the early extension pointless.
Yeah that’s what’s fair at the time but it’s sure to change.
Yeah Fever it’s cool. I just feel like it’s not the time for an extension like you said after 3 years makes total sense but not now.
Fever, in this case I’m OK with a Rafaela extension, and here’s why:
You’ve got Devers locked up, and, his deal will forever be underwater. You’re not moving it.
Between him and Casas you’ve got some error prone defense that is gonna be around for a while. A plus-plus glove elsewhere does start to compensate for that, somewhat. Devers cost the sox the game with his first error of the season leading to unearned runs. Ceddane making gen grabs with the glove may by seasons end balance some of those issues out.
I think that why, even if he winds up with a jbj-level bat, the team is willing to carry him (at an affordable price) to get that defense just like they did for years with Jackie.
GASox – Having just read it’s $50M/8 then I guess it’s tolerable … but definitely out of my comfort zone, as Sam Kennedy would say. That’s a LOT of additional money to buy out just two years of free agency.
Could they have tacked on a couple team option years too?
Fever- I doubt it. 8 yrs takes 2 FA years already.
So, figure 3 pre arb you can get away with a bit over 2 mil at mlb minimum right? Again, I like (for now) to assume jbj as a floor, just because we haven’t seen how the bat plays yet, but, we know the defense IS real.
Going through arb ending in 2020, JBJ would’ve made about 33m at current mlb minimum + his actual arb rates.
Ceddane would enter arb in 2027, thats 7 years of wage inflation. If you wage inflated that 30m in arb awards, it’s probably somewhere in the mid to upper 40s by 2027-2029 seasons.
That, to me, means you’re almost getting 2 FREE (or at least mlb minimum) years at a 8/50 contract right?
GASox – It’s normal for extensions to buy out 2 or more free agent years AND the team tacks on a couple team options as well.
Acuna’s original contract is 8 years, buying out 2 years of free agency, with two team options following ;O)
Lets be serious… Yeah Devers error cost them in Saturday’s game but Reyes lack of making a play on a routine force out was the real issue. Story makes that play easily.
Fever- you were right, you got your additional team.option for a 9th year!
Well there we go, at least they added a 1 year team option.
That makes the contract a little more appealing.
Coop – I totally agree!
And yesterday’s game reminded me of the Keystone Cops, it was pitiful.
Let’s hope Mayer is up soon.
That’s not what Acuna said at all. he said he wants to be a Brave for life. He never said that he wanted a redo. Stop making stuff up.
acel – Your false claims and accusations are starting to get annoying.
If you don’t know something, do a simple Google search before falsely accusing others. Sheesh, you’d think by now you’d have learned to not question the facts I present without at least making an effort to verify.
cbssports.com/mlb/news/ronald-acuna-jr-expresses-d…
Fever: where exactly in that story does he say wants a redo? maybe you should read the article first before citing it. And before you try to go there again your interpretation of what someone says isn’t fact. Doubling down on being wrong is m.o. but unlike you, this obnoxious behavior of yours isn’t fooling anyone.
You did prove yourself wrong again though which you have a habit of doing.
acel – Acel, you can try to spin it any way you want …. as great a player as he is, and as entertaining a person as he is, his request is both comical and sad.
He wants to change his now-5-year contract to a 13-year contract …. that’s a re-do request, obviously.
Hopefully the Braves will shut it down and Acuna won’t become a malcontent.
Again that’s your interpretation. It’s not a fact. I’m not spinning anything. He never asked for a redo but keep tripling down. It won’t change the fact that you’re wrong
acel – I’m not gonna continue to get sucked into these idiotic discussions.
You’re insisting if the Braves give him what he wants, they wouldn’t void his current contract …. they would simply add 8 years after his current contract ends. Is that really what you’re saying? Is that really your final answer?
Okay …
1) Show me ONE example where an active player agreed to a multi-year contract extension that took effect more than 2 years later.
2) Explain how it would work if the Braves declined one or both of their team options. So you’re saying he would be a Brave through 2026, then become a free agent for just 2 years, then be contractually obligated to rejoin the Braves in 2029. Yeah, right.
3) Manny Machado signed a 10-year contract with the Padres in February 2019. Last year he wanted his contract extended through the 2033 season. Did they simply agree to an additional contract that took effect in 2029? Of course not. THEY TORE UP THE EXISTING CONTRACT AND RE-DID IT WITH THE LONGER TERM.
The only reason I’m continuing to respond to your foolishness is because I find it amusing, but it’s getting old now. Take another L and Mo Vaughn.
So much space occupied in your brain. I should start renting it out to other posters. find the quote where Acuna said he wanted a redo on his contract. you can’t so as usual you try to provide a smoke screen obscure the fact hat you’re wrong. No one is falling for you nonsense. just admit you’re wrong cut losses and stop posting outright lies. Tripling down won’t help your cause.
Why not? This is the same country where if you own a small business, if you succeed you keep it, and if you lose aah why can’t the government regulate this to make me succeed or just bail me out with PPP?
njbirds – Great post, especially the part about PPP!!
It’s sickening how entities such as the LA Lakers applied for and received PPP funding. And I know of companies that actually profited greatly from Covid and yet they were still approved for loans that will never need to be repaid.
Okay no more politics. LOL!
And it’s also possible that it will work out for both sides. Some people just hate seeing players getting paid.
When has a super early extension been fair for both sides? Name an example.
Hank – I hate when deserving players don’t get paid because undeserving players already got overpaid.
You know every team has a limit as to how much they can spend, right?
BOOM!!!!!
Hopefully they got a bargain on the total $ amount. Rafaela is extremely risky based upon his plate discipline. He’ll need to make some adjustments.
Loud tools if he can correct the issues.
He’s not risky at all. The offense is a bonus with this guy. He will most likely be better offensively than jbj ever was and his defense is probably just as good. He can even play short and 2b. That’s great value even if he doesn’t hit a ton.
Do you really want a glove first, light hitting utility guy forced into your lienup for years though because you locked him up just to save a few bucks? A team like the Pirates or Royals this makes sense, not really for Boston.
The difference with Boston is that if he sucks, they will bury him like they did with Castillo. Small market teams can’t afford to do that. Also, I didn’t see him as a utility player. This kid deserves to play every day and I actually think he’ll be respectable with the bat in the end.
Castillo got buried in large part because his contract uniquely would not count against the luxury tax as long as he stayed in the minors, something that could not happen again after CBA changes. Boston had an incentive to outright keep him down – while he was almost certainly never going to live up to that contract, if not for that luxury tax situation he surely would have been in the majors in at least a depth role.
Regardless, they could eat his contract and the risk is minimal.
‘Yang
Risk is strongly influenced by price. At $40MM plus guarantee—there’s definitely risk involved. Myles Straw has an all world glove and got an early extension. His offense deteriorated so much that no one wants him & he’s far overpaid:
There’s some of that risk here with Rafaela also. His defense provides a floor but he has no safety as an offensive player. If he’s K’ing 35-40% of the time without developing pitch selection skills—that’s not gonna be an in the money extension.
Obviously one of these extensions is less expensive than 1 poor signing like Yohida—but it doesn’t mean it comes w/o risk,
I get it, but there is inherent risk with any player. 8 years 50 million is nothing for Henry to eat if he sucks.
Yeah. These will never cripple a team like Boston. He has to take a few strides offensively for this to provide them surplus value v. just going to arb. Which could certainly happen. He’s only 23
Why are they locking up utility players and 4th / 5th spot starting pitchers? Weird…
Because you and the red sox disagree on the talent level of Bello and Rafaela..they think these guys are future stars.. as a red sox fan i hope they are right and you are wrong old york
It’s not that they are stars, it’s that they are very useful players that are lower on the risk side. This keeps the team cheaper for ownership and if they turn into stars, it’s a huge win. I love this because it means they really are going for the braves approach. Not all players will pan out and not ask will sign early, but you can’t just let home grown players walk all the time. Let them go get paid by someone else at age 30 plus.
Utility guys don’t win gold gloves at the third most important defensive position
@Hotdog 2
Yes, they do.
baseball-almanac.com/awards/Gold_Glove_Utility_Pla…
But I’m not a fan of the GG Award. I prefer the Field Bible, as I believe the staff of MLBTR does as well.
Love it. His defense keeps this from being bad and he’s versatile. He could blossom with the bat too and then it could be a steal.
red sox have to take these kind of chances now that ownership has tightened the purse strings. this one seems less risky than bello as rafaela has a high floor (bottom third of the order with plus-plus defense at the very least) whereas pitchers are breaking every 5 seconds
Like this strategy. Very GM AA like down their south in Atlanta.
Hey, new Orioles owner guy, r u seeing this. Pretty sure you could get a guy like Westburg on a deal like this one. And, a more pricy version of this would be Rutschman.
In regards to superstars in the making like Holliday and Henderson they, sadly, are probably not realistic for this strategy. Too damn pricy. Yes? Tread lightly there. See eventually both going to the highest bidder when that time comes … and IMHO that won’t be small market Baltimore!
Move him to CF to suppress his value, sign him to a long term extension, then BOOM starting shortstop. Breslow out there playing space checkers.
Not sure why they’d feel the need to lock him up, but not my money.
Good thing otherwise he’d sign for 8 yrs at $750.
He has been so good I can see why. Ridiculous. Won’t spend on players that are good but sure give lots to a player who can’t hit.
As much as I like the gamble, he’s not much of a difference than JBJ. Magical in the OF, but aside from a couple hot streaks over the season, he hits around .230. Hopefully Raffy continues to improve his pitch selection.
I love how willing he is to go the other way. I’ve noticed his tendency is to swing early in the count, which is fine (see Nomar). I think he swings early because he’s legit afraid to fall behind in the count… which isn’t good.
Either way, congrats kid.
I think this was unnecessary, they probably would have paid him less during his arbitration hearings, but ok
These early extensions are always about buying out free agent years for value.
YBC – Yes, but only 2 free agent years and no team options after that? Definitely not a team-friendly contract, and it probably drives up Casas’ price too.
This has zero affect on casas. They are not comparable players and casas price likely starts at more than double this.
was this necessary? isnt it a bit soon to invest in someone as untested as cedanne?
Sure it’s early but if they would have done this with Betts/Bogarts and Brasier they’d still be here!! At least Brais… ( FPG was going to have a steak dinner with Brais when he was in town) Smith and Wolleskys… fell through… funny wife’s gas can and two road flares were missing from her truck????
They DID sign Bogaerts. His extension had an opt out, and his exercising it and getting massively overpaid on the open market is why he’s gone.
Boston seemingly did try to extend Betts, but we’ve never been given any indication that Betts was willing to sign early.
Long – Mookie made a counteroffer, that shows a willingness to sign.
We can’t let facts get into the way, Fever.
olm – I always enjoy your posts, even when I don’t understand them! LOL!
Smith and wollesky steak house burned down this weekend in Chicago……Ask wife what’s her new perfume… she said kerosene… maybe next time Brais and I can go for deep dish???
olm – Got it, thanks for the explanation! My knowledge of Chi-town is very limited, I’ve never even been there.
Your story reminds me of an Italian restaurant owner up north whose restaurants burned to the ground or exploded FIVE TIMES.
When he opened his 6th restaurant he included “Firehouse” in the name and it was furnished with firefighting paraphernalia everywhere.
God Bless America!
… too early.
I’d like to see the numbers before judging the contract, but these things are generally good moves. I like seeing the RS committing to a team that looks like they are finally starting to jell.
8 year 50 million
6.25 mil per year for the next 8. DEAL!!!!
DBH – Time will tell !!
If these extremely-early extensions are Breslow’s idea, they better pan out if he wants to keep his job in in 2027!
As long as it doesn’t end with these type deals, he should be fine. He will still need to spend to fill holes..
I think we will know at the deadline. If he does nothing then like Bloom the past 2, the Sox are sunk.
We’re only 10 games in. The Red Sox could very easily drop back and it makes no sense for him to add.
Agreed. If that turns out to be the case, you sell off Jansen, Martin, etc for more youth. Either case is fine. It is if they do nothing again that worries me
Brian – Thank you for being a voice of reason.
We’ve seen this the past 3 seasons, they start out well against weak competition and then fade against better competition later in the season.
So far this season the Sox have yet to play a 2023 postseason team.
They played an Oakland team that lost 112 games last year.
They played an Anaheim team that lost 89 games and that was with the greatest player on the planet.
And they played a Seattle team that also failed to make the playoffs.
Let’s see how they do against Baltimore and Burnes, it will be a great test and I’m excited to watch today.
DBH – It all depends on how much Breslow is allowed to spend. Last year Bloom was told he couldn’t take on any more salary at the deadline.
Who?
Love what they are doing
Myles straw 2.0
Can’t argue with this too much. The AAV is low enough that keeping him as a utility player/defensive replacement/pinch runner should allow him to provide enough value to justify the money.
Absolutely agree. If doesn’t improve at all he is worth the 6 mils. Any improvement at all and this slip a good deal!!!
At worst he’s JBJ. Best is 5 tool star
Full Throttle
Saturday evening..”Mr Henry, Story looks like he’s going to be out for AWHILE, we need to free up some money to get someone in here to replace him….”
“Well, WT! Don’t we already have some cheap chump we can slide in there”?
“Ahh…sir, I have an idea to kill 2 birds with one stone, but it’ll cost a couple of bucks”
“2 Birds, make it happen son, and you better hope it works…”
” Yes Sir Mr Henry”
Good deal for the Red Sox. And Rafaela is now very well set for life. Win-win.
I feel better about this one than I do the Bello one. Position players are easier to sign, IMO, and this guy has shown pure athleticism if anything, but Bello still has a ton to prove.
I liked the Bello better. Looks like a pretty safe backend starter at worst.
C. Not a fan of glove first outfielders. A lot of guaranteed $ to get 2 extra years. I like locking up talent early and often and 50m won’t kill ya so it’s a passing grade. If he is 20 some hr guy every year or increases his walks or decreases k’s it will be a huge win. I have some doubts but I haven’t seen him enough to go D.
Boston can sign all the young players they want, but the curse of Mookie will continue
2 very smart extentions for the Sox.
I’ll have the Ceddanne Rafaela, and for dessert I’ll have some blueberry Bello.
So far this season, guy is slashing:
AVG: 0.233
OBP: 0.286
SLG: 0.400
wOBA:0.294
wRC+: 85
Decent bench / utility player stats. I guess $6M is not that bad for a bench player.
old york..
Cant deny those facts…but you should provide context to be fair…these numbers are based on 35 plate appearances..there are plenty of guys that took time to adjust..pedroia comes to mind..i bet you had him dfa’d lol
@Poolhalljunkies
Got to trade guys like Pedroia before they become injury risks. Problem is, Boston holds on to too many players for the memories. I like the TB way to use up the guys early and dump them before they lose value.
Thats fair
What?! Do you follow this team at all? If anything they are accused of not keeping home grown players. Pedroia was basically the last one they signed after he was established. I guess bogearts would count, but he’s gone now.
Tang It:
Spot on. One example doesnt create a pattern.
I guess he doesnt want to look at players that management let walk like Damon or Ellsbury or extensions that did work, like Manny Ramirez’s. Nah, just pick the one that didnt work.
Simple fact: Big Contracts come with Big Risks. Some payoff some dont. Without a crystal ball, its incredibly difficult to predict.
Old York- that statement about trading Pedroia might just be the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever read on here.
Lock up Oneill for 5yrs, yes Casas if he comes back to reality as to where he is in his career similar to Rafaela and Anthony and Teel
Slow down on O’Neil. The guy hasn’t stayed healthy. Let’s see a full season first.
Just like the Braves, but the Braves are signing GOOD players to early extensions!
A small bonus for this contract is even though he’s being paid $1m in 2024 and 2025, etc, Rafaela’s Competitive Balance charge for every year is $6.25M.
So, in the early years, as they rebuild, when Red Sox dont need savings on the CBT, he will will be ‘overpaying’ into it. As the Red Sox get to later year, and his salary goes up, he’ll only cost, the same $6.25M against the Tax, even though he’ll be making more than the $6.25M. So this early signing will help out later, when they go after other more expensive players.
Again we’re not going to extend Casas though? Just freaking pay the man.
He’s already implied more than once that he’s betting on himself. Unless he’s offered close to nine-figures, I don’t see Casas accepting.
No offense, but ‘just pay him’, without knowing the ask and the offer, is pretty meaningless. Is he asking for $100M/5 with two option years? Is he asking for $125M/5 with no option years?
Details matter.
Not muchthe sox can do if Casas says no to all reasonable offers…
Poolhalljunkies:
Spot on. He seems disinterested in signing. A Cali boy who probably wants to play closer to home, and thats fine, thats his choice.
Also, his early talk is very reminiscent of how Betts would talk while he played in Boston. Unfortunately too many posters think extensions are 100% the team’s decision as Hehehate proves.
Won’t be a free agent until he’s 32 with the extra year, effectively buying him out of his useful years. Always some risk for the team, but looks like an excellent one for the Red Sox and likely one that will eventually bring some regrets for the player.
Phenomenal. Team is going to be great very soon. Bank on it
There’s no way he’s a better defender than PCA!