April 10: The Red Sox have announced Rafaela’s extension. It’s an eight-year deal covering the 2024-31 seasons and also contains a previously unreported club option for a ninth season in 2032.
Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports the annual breakdown. Rafaela receives a $2MM signing bonus before earning salaries of $1MM in 2024, $1MM in 2025, $2MM in 2026, $3.5MM in 2027, $5.5MM in 2028, $7.5MM in 2029, $10.5MM in 2030 and $13MM in 2031. The club option is valued at $16MM and comes with a $4MM buyout.
April 8: The Red Sox have agreed to an extension with outfielder/second baseman Ceddanne Rafaela, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. It’s an eight-year, $50MM pact for the MVP Sports Group client, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (as relayed by Ian Browne of MLB.com). Rafaela is the second young, core player the team has locked up in the past few weeks; Boston also signed righty Brayan Bello to a six-year, $55MM deal in late March.
Rafaela, 23, has ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects entering each of the past two seasons. He made his big league debut in 2023 won the center field job in Boston with a strong spring showing in 2024. Through his first 124 big league plate appearances, Rafaela is a .239/.282/.389 hitter, though his minor league track record features far more promising numbers. Rafaela split the majority of the 2023 campaign between Double-A and Triple-A, where he logged a combined .302/.349/.520 slash with 20 homers, 31 doubles, three triples and 36 stolen bases (in 49 tries).
Listed at just 5’9″ and 152 pounds, Rafaela is small in stature but certainly not short on talent. Scouting reports laud him as a potential plus center fielder; Baseball America and MLB.com both call him a Gold Glove-caliber defender there, and The Athletic’s Keith Law wrote that Rafaela “has a chance to be the most valuable outfield defender in baseball” when ranking him 32nd among all MLB prospects this spring. Rafaela couples that defensive upside with plus speed and enough power to project for double-digit home runs in the big leagues, even if he’s more of a gap hitter than a true slugger.
While Rafaela struck out as a generally manageable 21% clip in the upper minors last season, he doesn’t have a particularly patient approach at the plate. He walked in just 5.4% of his plate appearances last season — his second straight minor league campaign with a walk rate around 5%. He’s drawn a free pass in just 4.8% of his big league plate appearances to date. Barring an evolution in his approach at the dish, Rafaela could post middling on-base percentages in the majors, but his defensive prowess, speed and power contributions should offset any potential OBP deficiency.
As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the pre-arbitration extensions for Rafalea and Bello mark a notable change in philosophy from a Red Sox club that has eschewed long-term deals for players who are relatively unproven in the big leagues. From 2012 through 2021, the Red Sox didn’t give out a single pre-arb extension. Their 2022 deal with righty Garrett Whitlock (four years, $18.75MM with two club options) was their first extension for a player prior to arbitration eligibility since Clay Buchholz way back in 2011.
The Sox haven’t shied away from extensions entirely, but long-term deals for Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Sale and Rick Porcello were far more expensive deals that came after those players had solidified themselves as big leaguers worth annual values of $20MM or more. Even the original Bogaerts deal, which was considered wildly club-friendly, was valued at six years and $120MM.
Perhaps the eventual loss of Bogaerts, coupled with high-profile departures of Mookie Betts, Jon Lester and others over the years, pushed Sox ownership to become more aggressive on early-career extensions. Maybe they’ve become increasingly dissatisfied with pricey free-agent deals that haven’t gone to plan (e.g. Trevor Story, David Price, Lucas Giolito). Or perhaps they simply looked at the rising price for young talent around the league and opted to become more proactive. Whatever the reason, they’re beginning to lock up some promising and affordable contributors to join Devers in comprising the long-term core.
Rafaela is just one of several extension candidates on the Red Sox, and with two deals now hammered out, it seems increasingly plausible others could yet follow. Most notably, first baseman Triston Casas and righty Tanner Houck have both spoken about their openness to extensions. Other pre-arb players who could feasibly be considered for long-term deals include left fielder Jarren Duran and righty Kutter Crawford.
During an eclipse? Seems like something Bloom would have pulled.
went from trade bait to cornerstone real quick
Nice lock-up.
Congrats to Sedan.
No attempt to look at how to spell his name?
I don’t know. “Sedan” is a nice nickname for someone with that speed.
I know how it is spelled but this is how it is pronounced. His first name isn’t Curaçaoan and his middle name is Chipper. Look I’ve met white kids from the suburbs named Hemi. It’s a bad look overall.
I think we should be calling him Chipper.
I think it’s actually pronounced saydon, but it’s weirder to say.
How about Casas now?
He’s got the raw tools, hopefully this works out. Looking forward to the deets.
Off of less than 100abs? Red Sox Nation!
This is when guys should be getting signed. It’s also a far better way for ownership to use their money. Some young guys will flop, but it’s pennies lost compared to blowing hundreds of millions on predictably bad free agent signings.
Tang It
This is when guys should be getting signed.
=========================
Exactly. If you wait until kids prove themselves, the cost is astronomically higher. Plus, extensions are largely a bet on character. You want to sign kids who want to be the first one at the ball park.
Still questionable if he can and will hit enough…
Lot of swing and miss on an extension with Rafaella, but can see 1 for like 6y and 30-40m being enough risk reward if he “just” ends up as another JBJ type. Good team value if he learns better pitch recognition.
Why not just control him for the next 6 or 7 at near minimum wage plus Arb then? This has to be 8+ years, with or without Options. Imo, o/c
I suppose it’s a case of hedging their bets that if he takes off and produces like in the minors they’ll get some cheap, big offensive seasons with and explosion in arbitration salary. Absolutely best case dream scenario is he turns into a Mookie Betts type. More likely scenario is another Kike Hernandez type with the absolute worst case scenario being Scott Kingery
Ought to be buying out (options?) a couple years of free agency. If you lock players up through he age of 31-32 these days you get most of their career production,
Just not a fan of these extensions for players who are entirely unproven. Someone is going to be unhappy here either the team or the player 5 years from now.
BOOM!!!!!
Hopefully they got a bargain on the total $ amount. Rafaela is extremely risky based upon his plate discipline. He’ll need to make some adjustments.
Loud tools if he can correct the issues.
He’s not risky at all. The offense is a bonus with this guy. He will most likely be better offensively than jbj ever was and his defense is probably just as good. He can even play short and 2b. That’s great value even if he doesn’t hit a ton.
Do you really want a glove first, light hitting utility guy forced into your lienup for years though because you locked him up just to save a few bucks? A team like the Pirates or Royals this makes sense, not really for Boston.
The difference with Boston is that if he sucks, they will bury him like they did with Castillo. Small market teams can’t afford to do that. Also, I didn’t see him as a utility player. This kid deserves to play every day and I actually think he’ll be respectable with the bat in the end.
Castillo got buried in large part because his contract uniquely would not count against the luxury tax as long as he stayed in the minors, something that could not happen again after CBA changes. Boston had an incentive to outright keep him down – while he was almost certainly never going to live up to that contract, if not for that luxury tax situation he surely would have been in the majors in at least a depth role.
Regardless, they could eat his contract and the risk is minimal.
‘Yang
Risk is strongly influenced by price. At $40MM plus guarantee—there’s definitely risk involved. Myles Straw has an all world glove and got an early extension. His offense deteriorated so much that no one wants him & he’s far overpaid:
There’s some of that risk here with Rafaela also. His defense provides a floor but he has no safety as an offensive player. If he’s K’ing 35-40% of the time without developing pitch selection skills—that’s not gonna be an in the money extension.
Obviously one of these extensions is less expensive than 1 poor signing like Yohida—but it doesn’t mean it comes w/o risk,
I get it, but there is inherent risk with any player. 8 years 50 million is nothing for Henry to eat if he sucks.
Yeah. These will never cripple a team like Boston. He has to take a few strides offensively for this to provide them surplus value v. just going to arb. Which could certainly happen. He’s only 23
Why are they locking up utility players and 4th / 5th spot starting pitchers? Weird…
Because you and the red sox disagree on the talent level of Bello and Rafaela..they think these guys are future stars.. as a red sox fan i hope they are right and you are wrong old york
It’s not that they are stars, it’s that they are very useful players that are lower on the risk side. This keeps the team cheaper for ownership and if they turn into stars, it’s a huge win. I love this because it means they really are going for the braves approach. Not all players will pan out and not ask will sign early, but you can’t just let home grown players walk all the time. Let them go get paid by someone else at age 30 plus.
Utility guys don’t win gold gloves at the third most important defensive position
@Hotdog 2
Yes, they do.
baseball-almanac.com/awards/Gold_Glove_Utility_Pla…
But I’m not a fan of the GG Award. I prefer the Field Bible, as I believe the staff of MLBTR does as well.
Love it. His defense keeps this from being bad and he’s versatile. He could blossom with the bat too and then it could be a steal.
red sox have to take these kind of chances now that ownership has tightened the purse strings. this one seems less risky than bello as rafaela has a high floor (bottom third of the order with plus-plus defense at the very least) whereas pitchers are breaking every 5 seconds
Like this strategy. Very GM AA like down their south in Atlanta.
Hey, new Orioles owner guy, r u seeing this. Pretty sure you could get a guy like Westburg on a deal like this one. And, a more pricy version of this would be Rutschman.
In regards to superstars in the making like Holliday and Henderson they, sadly, are probably not realistic for this strategy. Too damn pricy. Yes? Tread lightly there. See eventually both going to the highest bidder when that time comes … and IMHO that won’t be small market Baltimore!
Move him to CF to suppress his value, sign him to a long term extension, then BOOM starting shortstop. Breslow out there playing space checkers.
Not sure why they’d feel the need to lock him up, but not my money.
Good thing otherwise he’d sign for 8 yrs at $750.
He has been so good I can see why. Ridiculous. Won’t spend on players that are good but sure give lots to a player who can’t hit.
As much as I like the gamble, he’s not much of a difference than JBJ. Magical in the OF, but aside from a couple hot streaks over the season, he hits around .230. Hopefully Raffy continues to improve his pitch selection.
I love how willing he is to go the other way. I’ve noticed his tendency is to swing early in the count, which is fine (see Nomar). I think he swings early because he’s legit afraid to fall behind in the count… which isn’t good.
Either way, congrats kid.
I think this was unnecessary, they probably would have paid him less during his arbitration hearings, but ok
These early extensions are always about buying out free agent years for value.
YBC – Yes, but only 2 free agent years and no team options after that? Definitely not a team-friendly contract, and it probably drives up Casas’ price too.
This has zero affect on casas. They are not comparable players and casas price likely starts at more than double this.
was this necessary? isnt it a bit soon to invest in someone as untested as cedanne?
Sure it’s early but if they would have done this with Betts/Bogarts and Brasier they’d still be here!! At least Brais… ( FPG was going to have a steak dinner with Brais when he was in town) Smith and Wolleskys… fell through… funny wife’s gas can and two road flares were missing from her truck????
They DID sign Bogaerts. His extension had an opt out, and his exercising it and getting massively overpaid on the open market is why he’s gone.
Boston seemingly did try to extend Betts, but we’ve never been given any indication that Betts was willing to sign early.
Long – Mookie made a counteroffer, that shows a willingness to sign.
We can’t let facts get into the way, Fever.
olm – I always enjoy your posts, even when I don’t understand them! LOL!
Smith and wollesky steak house burned down this weekend in Chicago……Ask wife what’s her new perfume… she said kerosene… maybe next time Brais and I can go for deep dish???
olm – Got it, thanks for the explanation! My knowledge of Chi-town is very limited, I’ve never even been there.
Your story reminds me of an Italian restaurant owner up north whose restaurants burned to the ground or exploded FIVE TIMES.
When he opened his 6th restaurant he included “Firehouse” in the name and it was furnished with firefighting paraphernalia everywhere.
God Bless America!
… too early.
I’d like to see the numbers before judging the contract, but these things are generally good moves. I like seeing the RS committing to a team that looks like they are finally starting to jell.
8 year 50 million
6.25 mil per year for the next 8. DEAL!!!!
DBH – Time will tell !!
If these extremely-early extensions are Breslow’s idea, they better pan out if he wants to keep his job in in 2027!
As long as it doesn’t end with these type deals, he should be fine. He will still need to spend to fill holes..
I think we will know at the deadline. If he does nothing then like Bloom the past 2, the Sox are sunk.
We’re only 10 games in. The Red Sox could very easily drop back and it makes no sense for him to add.
Agreed. If that turns out to be the case, you sell off Jansen, Martin, etc for more youth. Either case is fine. It is if they do nothing again that worries me
Brian – Thank you for being a voice of reason.
We’ve seen this the past 3 seasons, they start out well against weak competition and then fade against better competition later in the season.
So far this season the Sox have yet to play a 2023 postseason team.
They played an Oakland team that lost 112 games last year.
They played an Anaheim team that lost 89 games and that was with the greatest player on the planet.
And they played a Seattle team that also failed to make the playoffs.
Let’s see how they do against Baltimore and Burnes, it will be a great test and I’m excited to watch today.
DBH – It all depends on how much Breslow is allowed to spend. Last year Bloom was told he couldn’t take on any more salary at the deadline.
Who?
Love what they are doing
Myles straw 2.0
Can’t argue with this too much. The AAV is low enough that keeping him as a utility player/defensive replacement/pinch runner should allow him to provide enough value to justify the money.
Absolutely agree. If doesn’t improve at all he is worth the 6 mils. Any improvement at all and this slip a good deal!!!
At worst he’s JBJ. Best is 5 tool star
Full Throttle
Saturday evening..”Mr Henry, Story looks like he’s going to be out for AWHILE, we need to free up some money to get someone in here to replace him….”
“Well, WT! Don’t we already have some cheap chump we can slide in there”?
“Ahh…sir, I have an idea to kill 2 birds with one stone, but it’ll cost a couple of bucks”
“2 Birds, make it happen son, and you better hope it works…”
” Yes Sir Mr Henry”
Good deal for the Red Sox. And Rafaela is now very well set for life. Win-win.
I feel better about this one than I do the Bello one. Position players are easier to sign, IMO, and this guy has shown pure athleticism if anything, but Bello still has a ton to prove.
I liked the Bello better. Looks like a pretty safe backend starter at worst.
C. Not a fan of glove first outfielders. A lot of guaranteed $ to get 2 extra years. I like locking up talent early and often and 50m won’t kill ya so it’s a passing grade. If he is 20 some hr guy every year or increases his walks or decreases k’s it will be a huge win. I have some doubts but I haven’t seen him enough to go D.
Boston can sign all the young players they want, but the curse of Mookie will continue
2 very smart extentions for the Sox.
I’ll have the Ceddanne Rafaela, and for dessert I’ll have some blueberry Bello.
So far this season, guy is slashing:
AVG: 0.233
OBP: 0.286
SLG: 0.400
wOBA:0.294
wRC+: 85
Decent bench / utility player stats. I guess $6M is not that bad for a bench player.
old york..
Cant deny those facts…but you should provide context to be fair…these numbers are based on 35 plate appearances..there are plenty of guys that took time to adjust..pedroia comes to mind..i bet you had him dfa’d lol
@Poolhalljunkies
Got to trade guys like Pedroia before they become injury risks. Problem is, Boston holds on to too many players for the memories. I like the TB way to use up the guys early and dump them before they lose value.
Thats fair
What?! Do you follow this team at all? If anything they are accused of not keeping home grown players. Pedroia was basically the last one they signed after he was established. I guess bogearts would count, but he’s gone now.
Tang It:
Spot on. One example doesnt create a pattern.
I guess he doesnt want to look at players that management let walk like Damon or Ellsbury or extensions that did work, like Manny Ramirez’s. Nah, just pick the one that didnt work.
Simple fact: Big Contracts come with Big Risks. Some payoff some dont. Without a crystal ball, its incredibly difficult to predict.
Old York- that statement about trading Pedroia might just be the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever read on here.
Lock up Oneill for 5yrs, yes Casas if he comes back to reality as to where he is in his career similar to Rafaela and Anthony and Teel
Slow down on O’Neil. The guy hasn’t stayed healthy. Let’s see a full season first.
Just like the Braves, but the Braves are signing GOOD players to early extensions!
A small bonus for this contract is even though he’s being paid $1m in 2024 and 2025, etc, Rafaela’s Competitive Balance charge for every year is $6.25M.
So, in the early years, as they rebuild, when Red Sox dont need savings on the CBT, he will will be ‘overpaying’ into it. As the Red Sox get to later year, and his salary goes up, he’ll only cost, the same $6.25M against the Tax, even though he’ll be making more than the $6.25M. So this early signing will help out later, when they go after other more expensive players.
Again we’re not going to extend Casas though? Just freaking pay the man.
He’s already implied more than once that he’s betting on himself. Unless he’s offered close to nine-figures, I don’t see Casas accepting.
No offense, but ‘just pay him’, without knowing the ask and the offer, is pretty meaningless. Is he asking for $100M/5 with two option years? Is he asking for $125M/5 with no option years?
Details matter.
Not muchthe sox can do if Casas says no to all reasonable offers…
Poolhalljunkies:
Spot on. He seems disinterested in signing. A Cali boy who probably wants to play closer to home, and thats fine, thats his choice.
Also, his early talk is very reminiscent of how Betts would talk while he played in Boston. Unfortunately too many posters think extensions are 100% the team’s decision as Hehehate proves.
Won’t be a free agent until he’s 32 with the extra year, effectively buying him out of his useful years. Always some risk for the team, but looks like an excellent one for the Red Sox and likely one that will eventually bring some regrets for the player.
Phenomenal. Team is going to be great very soon. Bank on it
There’s no way he’s a better defender than PCA!