This post is brought to you by Stathead. We use Stathead, powered by Baseball Reference, to find interesting stats in our articles. Stathead has easy-to-use discovery tools to take you inside the BR database. Try it for free today!
The 2024 season is now rolling along, which means it’s time to wildly overreact to small samples of data. Previously unremarkable players are suddenly looking like Hall-of-Famers while reliably good players now seem to be washed.
A midseason slump is easy to dismiss when you look up and the full season stats still seem good. Maybe a slumping hitter is still hitting .265 or a pitcher that just got lit up still has an earned run average around 4.00. But early on, a batting average that starts with a zero or an ERA that has two digits before the decimal place can be a cause for concern.
Thankfully, Stathead has an amazing tool to help put this all into proper context. Using the Span Finder, we can search a player’s entire career to see if they have ever had a previous slump that compares to what’s currently happening. Let’s use Francisco Lindor as an example.
It’s no secret that Lindor hasn’t exactly been his best self so far this year. His struggles became such a talking point amid fans of the Mets that some of them got together on social media and decided to support Lindor with a standing ovation, mirroring how Phillies’ fans responded when Trea Turner was struggling last year.
Through 15 games, Lindor has just eight hits in 62 at-bats for a .129 batting average. Just two of those eight hits have been for extra bases, one double and one home run. His batting line is just .129/.236/.194 and his on-base plus slugging is just .430, well below his career mark of .810.
Now that Lindor is 30 years old, it might be tempting to consider this the start of some age-based decline, but Span Finder shows us that he has been here before. Doing a custom search for every 15-game stretch of Lindor’s career and sorting by ascending OPS, we get this…
- September 10 to September 26 of 2016: .309 OPS
- September 11 to September 28 of 2016: .337 OPS
- September 9 to September 24 of 2016: .340 OPS
- April 17 to May 5 of 2021: .388 OPS
- October 1 of 2023 to April 13 of 2024: .392 OPS
- September 8 to September 23 of 2016: .404 OPS
- April 17 of 2021 to May 3 of 2021: .414 OPS
- September 29 of 2017 to April 11 of 2018: .429 OPS
- March 29 to April 14 of 2024: .430 OPS
Lindor is clearly in one of the worst stretches of his career right now, but it’s not totally without precedent. He slumped real bad at the end of the 2016 season when he was 22 years old. Despite that awful finish, he still hit .301/.358/.435 on the year overall for a 106 OPS+. Cleveland made the playoffs that year and Lindor immediately put that slump behind him, hitting .310/.355/.466 in the postseason as the club went all the way to Game 7 of the World Series, even going to extra innings in that classic game.
Given that there were also some notable struggles early on in 2018 and 2021 mixed in there, it seems fair to conclude that Lindor is performing within the range of previous outcomes. It’s clearly not ideal for him or the Mets that he’s started the season in this hole, but it’s one he has climbed out of before. Throughout the ups and downs of his career, he has hit .272/.340/.470 for a 116 OPS+.
That bat, along with Lindor’s speed and defense, are why the Mets gave him a ten-year, $341MM extension a few years ago. That deal pays Lindor $32MM annually through the 2031 season, so it’s good for the Mets that his current slump isn’t totally unprecedented.
A little early for an age-related sharp decline. As to tg the current and previous streaks, do they correlate with any reported injuries?
Mike – I totally agree!! This is not a similar situation to Story, who has been injured throughout his career and was in the middle of a steady decline when he signed with the perennial cheapskate last place Red Sox.
Lindor had a great year last year, so I would think his struggles this year are either tied to a physical issue or a mental one. Is he going through a divorce? Did someone close to him pass away? Those are things that usually aren’t revealed to the public until later on.
“Given that there were also some notable struggles early on in 2018 and 2021 mixed in there, it seems fair to conclude that Lindor is performing within the range of previous outcomes. ”
So you’re saying he’s been divorced or had someone die each of these times?
Kind of a dumb comment there.
get – I wrote it’s a possibility, not a certainty. Big difference.
I’m not a Tribe or Mets fan, so I won’t try to explain those other two struggles. But looking at 2021 when he played in only 125 games and finished the year with a .734 OPS, it’s probably a safe bet he was injured or ill for a large part of that season.
“Kind of a dumb comment”…When players start to wither, wilt and underperform out come the excuse makers and apologists seeking reasons and excuses for lack of effort(see K.Bryant & A.Rendon), results and decline. The fact is, Francisco Lindor doesn’t need an apologist or excuse maker (unlike C.Correa), because he posts everyday and guys that do this(See P.Alonzo & Marcus Semien)usually take a lot of pride in what they do and 98% of the time will overcome any slump or “slow start” thru sheer effort, drive and will. The Mets have many things to worry about, but Frankie Lindor is certainly not really one of them.
Maybe it was the ridiculous mets fans who sent death threats to his wife.
Revoke your fan card.
Bashing lindor is a pastime for a lot of mets fans. It’s really weird
“Bashing lindor…Mets fans..It’s really weird”…Not too “weird” in my opinion. It’s just normal fandom(maybe a little fanaticism). The Mets crowd would like Lindor to turn it on and play better(like most fans), nothing too “weird” or over the top about that in my opinion. My only interest is in seeing high level baseball being played and the teams I root for change almost every year.
I just think Lindor is too prideful to take a day off and be in the bench for pinch-hitting duties after spending most of the game in the batting cages under the stands working on his swing.
Lindor is giving off strong 2023 Tim Anderson vibes. Not good for the Mets.
Berry – I think unlike Anderson, Lindor is capable of avoiding a punch. I picture him doing the Coco Matrix Move.
“Coco Matrix move”…Good point. Very Barry is out in left field comparing Lindor to team cancer and morale-killer Tim Anderson.
Meh, it’s still April. If he’s still slumping like this in June, then somethings off.
I told you guys he would be a bust three years ago, been saying it. Mets paid $300 million for a pretty smile
@Shadow Banned
The last three years with the Mets, he’s put up 3.9, 6.4 & 5.6 fWAR. Pretty decent production for the money being paid. There’s guys out there on the IL getting paid well for no value produced.
“300 million for a pretty smile”…I have to disagree. Lindor is far from my favorite player, but he posts everyday and plays excellent defense, so I think he’ll be fine despite his rather streaky offensive prowess. In my opinion the guys that post up and show up take a certain pride in their efforts(see Bryce Harper & Mookie Betts)and will always work hard(and train hard in off-seasons)to fight thru the ups & downs of the long Major League baseball season. Add that work ethic to their God-given talents and in 98% of cases they’ll be fine.
$30 million for defense is pretty stupid if you ask me. Betts, freeman, Machado, tatis, bogaerts, Tray Turner are all better options. Mets just fumbled the bag like always
ROTFLMAO!
Did you just say Bogaerts was a better option? Lindor is a better hitter and fielder. Bogaerts doesn’t even play SS anymore. Stay in your lane bro.
Freeman plays 1st, and not SS.
And Lindor is better than “Trea” Turner as well.
Nothing personal, but you’re just blathering now.
Bro .083 batting average is complete dog diarrhea. I guess New York fans are used to low standards
LOL! I hate the NYY, and consider the NYMs kind of a sad amusement.
But Bogaerts is not that close to Lindor. You need to read up on baseball a little.
He’s been the best long term shortstop contract of the group over the last few seasons and he’ll still be the youngest when it’s over. So far he’s lived up to this deal just fine.
so it’s good for the Mets that his current slump isn’t totally unprecedented.
I wouldn’t call it “good”.
Nothing abnormal ever happens to the mets
Other than historically collapsing in a playoff race
Paying a guy for 25 years decades after he retired
Signing the worst garbage in recent memory
Highest payroll in sports history & losing 90 games
Players fighting boars
Players blowing out acl while celebrating meaningless games
Players constantly endlessly hurting themselves
Nope
You’ll never find “Abnormal” and “mets” in the same sentence
Best of all, their skipper named “Manager of the Year” for choking away the NL East and then getting smoked out of the wild-card round by San Diego.
yep and only 8 more years of lindor. and only 12 more of bonilla. but many many more of absolute misery, failure, and underwhelming disappointing freak show circus results
Yea do you know the Braves were paying Bruce Sutter for like 25 years after his retirement with deferred money. It wasn’t just the Mets as many think
@comfort
have the braves had a carousel of clueless managers for the past decade too? or currently owe $100 million to players not in their organization? any braves superstar hitters with a $341 million contract batting .100? its been 3 years since braves won a WS. Nearly 40 years for mets. its also been a decade since mets drew more fans than atlanta. what else do you want to compare braves to mets? hm?
Yeah, it’s crazy, Mets are the only team to ever blow a big lead late in the season. Certainly didn’t happen to the Cubs in ‘69, or the Phillies in ‘64. The 2011 Tigers certainly weren’t up 3 games on the Twins with 4 to go. And those 2009 Red Sox definitely didn’t blow a 9 game lead from September 1st thru the end of the year.
And yeah, it’s weird how the Mets are the only team that’s ever deferred money to a player. The Braves certainly didn’t do it with Bruce Sutter, and the Red Sox definitely didn’t do it with Manny Ramirez. And of course, the Nationals would never make the same mistake twice with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.
Oh, and speaking of Strasburg, it was just -so- Metsy of them to sign him to a mega deal just to watch him pitch 8 times over 4 seasons before retiring and pocketing all that money. Can’t believe they signed those immediately regrettable contracts with Anthony Rendon and Trevor Story also while signing Xander Bogarerts for 11 years only yo move him one year into the deal. And all that money they gave Kris Bryant? Yikes!!!
As far as freak injuries, who can forget when famous Met Kendrys Morales missed nearly two seasons after tearing up his knee jumping on home plate after a walk off in May? Or when their prized ace Madison Bumgarner missed several months because of a dirt bike accident? Or their ace reliever ruined his elbow playing Guitar Hero? Those freak injuries, they only happen to the Mets!!
And you’re right – it’s much better for the game to not have owners like Steve Cohen. Who would want a billionaire who actually acts like he has money, and knows when to cut bait with a bad investment? The league would be so much better with more owners like John Fisher and Bob Nutting, constantly haranguing their local cities for free stadiums and pocketing all the MLB revenue sharing money while refusing to spend anything on the roster. Now THOSE guys are good for baseball!!
I know Abby Normal. He’s a real strange dude.
This is definitely a cold start to some extent but still alarming. A player like Lindor obviously isn’t going to hit this poorly all season but it is fair to wonder just how much he’ll improve as the season goes on. He’s a slim built guy who’s hit for power to this point but is now in his thirties. It’s possible Lindor’s power starts to disappear as he ages. He’s also known for his defense and athleticism, two things that will almost definitely decline in the coming years. The Mets realistically won’t contend for another two or three years and by that point Lindor’s contract could look like a complete albatross
We’ve witnessed this with Mark Teixeira on the Yankees whom always had anemic Aprils and was streaky. They’re both obv. different profile players but Lindor is only 30 so I’m not ready to write him off.
YBC – On June 8th, 2009 in 229 PA’s David Ortiz was batting .197 with a .596 OPS and just 2 homeruns.
He finished the year with a respectable .794 OPS, and from 2010-2016 he batted .292 with a .945 OPS.
Frankly I don’t know what the point of this article is,and most of the comments here make no sense.
I wouldn’t be too alarmed, either. Three seasons in on a 10yr deal that the Mets are hoping for 7 prime seasons. He’ll likely never reach 2018 stats again, but he’s proven to be incredibly valuable to the Mets. If he’s this bad now, I’d bet on a tear once the season gets going.
The article feels a little voodoo-ish to me. Lindor isn’t a particularly bad April player. It’s his worst career month by OPS, but his BABIP is also a little short at .265.
The entire piece feels like an endorsed advertisement for Stathead.
Instead of referring to hot streaks and cold streaks, why not take the old-fashioned scientific approach and refer to BABIP & HR/FB?
Lindor’s OPS is currently .430. His BABIP is .127. If he reverts back to his career .289, then his average reverts to .291. His HR/FB is 4.0. If you regress that to his career 14.0, then his total HRs would be 33.88.
I still prefer my calculations.
This is 100% weather related. He hits like crap in the cold weather. He does this every year. MLB moves games up every year in worse weather and players starting in that bad weather get off to horrible starts.
The man needs to give up switch hitting and just hit from the right side. He’s a below average left-handed hitter.
The 4 of the 10 time periods overlap. Just spitting data points for the sake of it.
He’s been streaky offensively with the Mets. Last year he got hot after they were out of it. Remains steady in the field and appears to be a leader in the dugout. I do wish they were not as beholden to him batting in the 2 or 3 hole when he’s slumping as badly as he has.
Okay, someone needs to proofread to make sure the statistics used create a genuine picture of performance.
Setting the span to 15 games gave you four entries in 2016, that are actually one 19-game slump when Lindor batted .161/.304/.177/.481. He was in his sophomore season at age 22 at that time. He’s not the same player now.
Similarly, you show two stretches that fall between April 14 and May 5, 2021, that are really one 16-game run when he batted .129/.217/.177/.395.
Including three games at the end of 2017 to start a slump in 2018 and one game in October 2023 to create a slump in 2024, with nearly six months between the first game and the second, is ridiculous.
Lindor was never going to play well enough to justify a $34M AAV contract, but most players aren’t and he was a top-ten MVP player in 2021 and 2022. I expect him to come out of the slump and have something like his 2022 season. However, if the Mets are really planning to win in the future, they need to find a way to trade him to the Dodgers before he does fall off the cliff.
I don’t know if I like these new ad-sponsored posts.
Please let us know, once you decide